1. Market Forces
Impacting the Pool Industry
September, 2012
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3. APSP Research Program
A commitment to staying informed and ahead of member
interests and questions
Nearly 7,000 interviews updated annually
Quarterly Tracking
Qualitative 2011 Quantitative 2012 Quantitative
3000 Interviews
Exploration Market Assessment among Top 10% of Update
6 Focus Groups 2500 Interviews* HH Incomes 1,300 Interviews*
$100K+ Discretionary
*Among pool and hot tub owners, prospects and rejecters
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4. Who Our Research Represents
Discretionary
Income Upper Middle Core One
$100K+ Class Affluent Percenters
% of U.S.
10% 5.2% 4.3% 1.0%
Households*
Median Household
$275K $138K $275K $750K
Income
Median Assets $1.5MM $800K $2.3MM $7.5MM
# of U.S.
12.0MM 5.9MM 4.9MM 1.2MM
Households*
* Estimates are based on total U.S. households of 114,600,000 as cited in the 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) from the US
Census Bureau.
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5. Agenda
Overall Market Trends
Pool Industry Results
Activations
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6. Let me ask you…
Did You Change Your Shopping
Practices as a Result of the
Recession?
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7. Do You Feel the US is still in a
Recession?
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8. Will You Go Back to Your Pre-
Recession Spending Practices?
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10. Just When You Think Things Are Looking Up…
% of Total Who Believe We are in a Recession
AND it Will Last at Least Another Year
69 67
56 55 56 61 58
54 54 52
Q1-09 Q3-09 Q1-10 Q3-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12
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11. Views on Stock Market Continue to Fluctuate
Stock Market Right Now… Investing Risk Profile
A real risk Moderate
58 57 58 59 58 58
56 55 56
50 50 51
50 50 38 Conservative
43 31 33
42 42 41 28 30 30
A real opportunity Aggressive
14 14 12 14
10 11
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012
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12. Little Movement Since the Damage was Done in Q2, 2011
Aggregate Spending Change
60 % of Households Planning to Increase/Decrease Luxury Spend
50
40
30
20 Increase
11 Decrease
10
10
0
Q2 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012
Total Affluent and Wealthy
Average across categories among those participating in category
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13. The Pool is Your Vacation at Home
Total AWA Sample
Q1 2012 Q2 2012
% %
Weekend Getaways 12 13
Vacations 7 11
Footwear 7 6
Resorts and Fine Hotels 8 5 Average
Apparel/fashion 5 4 Spending
Change
Personal Leather Goods 3 4
Eating in restaurants 4 3
Women's Handbags 1 3
Accessories 5 2
Home electronics 2 -1
Home Décor & furnishings -1 -2
Fine Watches -4 -12
Fine Jewelry -4 -14
Calculations based on past spending and projected spending levels
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14. Ouch!
I am looking forward to I am looking forward to
spending more money buying luxury goods and
this year than last services more now than I
did a year ago
45 Q1 2011 43
Q1 2012
33
30
26 27
23 21
18 18
14 15
Upper Middle Core Affluent One Percent Upper Middle Core Affluent One Percent
Class Class
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15. Money is Reserved for the Important Things
I am buying fewer big ticket items
now than I did a year ago
81
76
71 71
61 60 57
51 49 Q1 2009
45 45
39 Q1 2010
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Upper Middle Class Core Affluent One Percenters
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16. Uncertainty Everywhere…
Home
Retirement
Values
Jobs Politics
Personal
Finance Uncertainty Taxes
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17. Uncertainty Is the Issue
Would increase spending
if they had more
Say they are saving
confidence
money because they are
in knowing what their
worried about the future
future looked like
(YTD) (YTD)
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18. Operating Within Short Time Horizons
Just 24% have
100 confidence in
No Confidence In Ability to
90 knowing what
Predict Own Future in… their life will be
80 76 like in more than
70 5 years
60
50 48
41
40
30 27
20
10
0
6 months 12 months 2 years 5 years
Among Total, cumulative for each time period
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19. Turning Less to External Cues on Ability to Spend
Things that Matter Less as Signals to Spend
Sustained improvement in the stock market
Sustained improvement in the consumer confidence index
General recognition from economists that we're in a
growth cycle
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20. Savings in Cash is the New Black
Upper
Middle Core One
Income Savings Rate The 90% Class Affluent Percenters
Avg. % Being Saved 10 17 23 34
65% say they are saving money because they
are worried about the future
Equates to $35,000 incremental
savings per year among top 10%ers
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21. It's Going Under the Mattress
U.S. Annual
Personal Savings $6 Trillion in Cash Stockpiling on the Sidelines!
$250 B $550 B
In 2007 In 2011
2007 2012
71
61
39
29
23
11
% Being Saved % to Personal % Invested In Financial
Savings/Money Market Products and Markets
Among Total
National Personal Savings figures Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov)
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22. Hedging and Deleveraging in Process
% of households with
Zero Credit Card Debt
80%
But reports of
75% increasing credit use
71% are now emerging
69%
Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
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23. As the Stash Gets Bigger…
It gets less risky to spend a larger number
More OK to occasionally have justifiable indulgences
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24. Demand For Real Estate Continues to Grow
Real estate currently represents
an opportunity
72 71 70
66 65 63
63 63
“In the market”
for real estate 28
25 24
21
16 15
9 13
Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12
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25. Trends Update
Success Under Siege and Stealth Wealth
Experiences and Quality in Life
The Pull of Worth and the Push of ―the Deal‖
25
26. Main Street vs. Wall Street
“We Need” “They Have”
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27. There is Some Justification
Household Income: A Picture of Disparity
(in 2010 dollars)
Lower limit of top 5 percent
Upper Limit of Fourth Fifth
Upper limit of Third Fifth
Upper limit of Second Fifth
Upper limit of Lowest Fifth
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements.
Table F-1. Income Limits for Each Fifth and Top 5 Percent of Families (All Races): 1947 to 2010
(Families as of March of the following year. Income in current and 2010 CPI-U-RS adjusted dollars (28))
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28. “One Percenter” Angst
% Who Are Extremely/Very Concerned About
Being Scorned for Being in the Top Part of the
Economy
27 %
One Percenters
Q2 2012
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29. Perceiving a Climate of Contempt
Upper Middle Class Core Affluent One Percenters
71% 70%
64% 62% 62% 62%
I am frustrated by the amount of negative Wealthy people are not recognized for
attention surrounding wealth disparity in the contributions they make to society
America
Source: May and June waves of the Survey of Affluence and Wealth in America
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30. Perceiving a Climate of Contempt
% of Affluent/wealthy who think fewer/more Americans feel each way relative
to a year ago
believe
fewer more
statement is true
Wealth comes at the expense of others 6 63% 12%
Wealth is impossible to obtain 10 60% 5%
Wealth is a reflection of greed 7 56% 5%
Wealth is something to look down upon 10 39% 1%
Wealth is something to aspire to 16 30% 64%
Wealth reflects hard work 44 15% 80%
Source: May and June waves of the Survey of Affluence and Wealth in America
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31. Stealth Wealth Strengthens
% Agree: I like it when others recognize
me as being wealthy
Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
53
43 46
40
34 31
30
24
Total Affluent and Wealthy One Percenters
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32. Affluent Response
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33. This Extends to Their Backyards
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34. Trends Update
Success Under Siege and Stealth Wealth
Experiences and Quality in Life
The Pull of Worth and the Push of ―the Deal‖
34
35. Happiness and Success See Q2 Uptick
Self-Reported Happiness and Success 2012
Very Happy Successful in Personal Life
75 78 76 78
74 73
69 71 67 67 71
66
Total 2012 UMC CA Top 1%
Very Happy 63 70 72
Successful in personal Life 73 76 77
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
Top 3 Box of 10-Point Scale
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36. The Value of Experiences In Supporting Quality in
Life are Long-Lasting
Enjoy talking about…
Love Talking About Neutral Avoid Talking About
Family 80 16 4
Vacation experiences 77 13 10
Hobbies 54 33 13
Sports 52 20 28
Things you buy 36 33 31
Weather 34 49 17
Politics 33 21 46
Religion 16 24 60
Money 11 31 58
0 20 40 60 80 100
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37. Trends Update
Success Under Siege and Stealth Wealth
Experiences and Quality in Life
The Pull of Worth and the Push of “the Deal”
37
38. Worth: A Matter of Degree
Luxury Shopper Segmentation Along the
Worth/Value Continuum
Total A&W Non-CM
20% 24% 14% 24% 18%
Fundamentally Biased for Neither Worth Biased for Fundamentally
Deal-oriented Deal nor Value Worth Worth-oriented
Growing
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39. Rejection of Compromise Holds Strong
I am trading down some of my luxury purchases
to lower quality or lower priced items
Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
50
43 43 45
41 38
35
31 30 30
26 27
Upper Middle Class Core Affluent One Percenters
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40. Worth Characteristics Intensify in Value
Strongly Agree with Statements About Desired Qualities of Brands
Total Sample
Q1 Q2
Reflect high craftsmanship 46 50
Have a reputation for the best quality 43 45
Have a reputation for good service 44 46
Have a reputation for innovation 16 20
(Note: Total agree for first 3 items is over 90%, total agree on "innovation" is near 80%)
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41. Worth: The Store & Sales Experience Matters
Fundamentally Worth-oriented
Fundamentally Deal-oriented
83% 78%
59% 61%
43%
36%
19%
10%
For me, the act of I prefer stores that I depend on I have close
purchasing needs to are really elegant salespersons to relationships with a
be as pleasant as inside know the specific few salespeople that
the experience of details that make I count on
owning the product products worth more
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43. Trends Working Against Pool Business
• Stuck Economy
• Spending unlikely to move significantly
• Shortened Time Horizons
• Pools have longer-term reward mindset
• On-going Uncertainty
• Preservation of assets
• 1%er Angst
• Play to Stealth Wealth
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44. Trends Working In Favor of Pool Business
• Cash Accumulation
• Assets have grown substantially
• Targeted Spending on Things that Matter
• Family first!
• Operating on Internal Cues of Prosperity
• Feeling fortunate in their personal situation
• Real Estate Boom Coming?
• Looking for hard assets
• Return of Worth Based Purchasing
• Presents more high margin customer opportunities
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45. CONFIDENTIAL, PROPRIETARY & TRADE SECRET INFORMATION
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46. Now for Pools…
Pool Business Owner Highlights
Pool Market Overview
Consumer Insight Driven
Features/Benefits and Channel Dynamics
Targeting/Communications
Closing Considerations
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47. Pool Business Owners Report Finances Better 2012
One-third of improvement to new pools. Other important contributing sources
Share of Sources of Improved Business Revenue
More customers installing new pools 34%
Improved Financial Practices 19%
More customers renovating/enhancing 16%
Customers are buying more pool supplies 15%
More customers hiring pool maintenance 3%
10%
Something else
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48. Do You Believe in Your Own Product?
Customer Reports of Satisfaction What Pool Business Owners
with Pool Ownership Experience Estimate Customers will Say
Extremely Satisfied 28% Extremely Satisfied 25%
70% 57%
Very Satisfied 42% Very Satisfied 32%
Somewhat Satisfied 23% Somewhat Satisfied 32%
Not Very Satisfied 6% Not Very Satisfied 12%
Not at all Satisfied 1% Not at all Satisfied 7%
Are we selling ourselves or our customers?
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49. Pool Business Owners Not Satisfied with Advertising
New Approaches Needed
Perceived Effectiveness of Advertising
(As reported by Pool Business Owners)
Very Effective 19%
Somewhat Effective 65%
Not Very Effective 16%
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50. Ready to Fight!
“Good is the Enemy
of Great”
- Jim Collins
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51. Pool Business Owner Highlights
Pool Market Overview – Consumers
Features/Benefits and Channel Dynamics
Targeting/Communications
Closing Considerations
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52. Pool Prospect Market Shrunk from the Recession
Pool Business Owners believe this to be true as well
Perceived Popularity in owning a pool since the recession
More Popular 19%
Neither more nor less popular 50%
Less Popular 31%
q - In your view, do you feel it has become more or less popular to own a pool than it was before the recession?
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53. Pool/Prospect Populations Steady in 2012
Prospect populations are often larger than owners
Single Family Detached 2011 And 2012
Home Owners - $75K HH
Prospects Owners
3.7 MM 5.6 MM
10% 15%
Rejecters
75%
27.7 MM
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54. Can Pools Bring Fun/Happiness Back to Life?
Owners Prospects
Going through the recession has made life more
serious and less fun 54% 52%
I wish I could bring more fun back into my life 50% 68%
Having a pool is a great way to bring more fun
into my life 68% 81%
The fun and enjoyment I get from a pool is worth
every penny 65% 76%
Q14- Please read the following statements that may or may not describe your attitudes on certain things. Using the 5-point scale
below, please select the response that best indicates how much you agree or disagree with each statement. If no one response captures
your feelings completely, just choose the answer that comes closest.
q26 - Please read the following statements that may or may not describe how you feel about in-ground pools. Using the 5-point scale
below, please select the response that best indicates how much you agree or disagree with each statement.
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55. Reengaging a Vision
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56. Satisfaction Not Universal
Overall Satisfaction with Pool
Ownership Experience
Extremely Satisfied 28%
70%
Very Satisfied 42%
Somewhat Satisfied 23%
Not Very Satisfied 6%
Not a Ringing Endorsement!
Not At All Satisfied 1%
Strength of Recommendation
to Prospects
An Extremely Good Idea 25%
65%
A Good Idea 40%
Somewhat of a Good Idea 25%
A Bad Idea 8%
An Extremely Bad Idea 2%
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57. Overall Pool Market Structure
• Significant number of non-lovers to ―care‖ for
Pool Prospects Love of the Pool Pool Owners
Visionaries Fun in the
Sun
60% Sunsetters 18%
20% 20%
Younger Empty Nesting
Busy Caretakers
Backyard
Expect many to exit
40% the category
24%
17% Chore of the Pool
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58. Pool Negatives – Prospects Wary of Costs
Owners Prospects
Pools are too expensive to maintain 52% 48%
Maintaining the correct water chemistry in a
pool is a hassle 50% 55%
Pool maintenance is very burdensome 50% 59%
Pools get boring 27% 25%
q26 - Please read the following statements that may or may not describe how you feel about in-ground pools. Using the 5-point scale
below, please select the response that best indicates how much you agree or disagree with each statement.
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59. Barriers for Purchasing a Pool
Primary or Secondary Barrier for Prospects Total
A pool is too expensive to install 75%
Concerned a pool would be too expensive to
62%
maintain
I am waiting to see if the economy becomes more
54%
stable/improves
A pool uses too much energy/electric bill will increase 52%
Concerned a pool would take too much time to
52%
maintain
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60. Owning a Pool Not as Expensive as Prospects Think
Monthly Energy Costs Monthly Maintenance Costs
Owners $85 Owners $80
Prospects $139 Prospects $124
Difference Difference
(Prospects – Owners) $54 (Prospects – Owners) $44
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61. Pool Business Owner Highlights
Pool Market Overview
Features/Benefits and Channel Dynamics
Targeting/Communications
Closing Considerations
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62. Substantial Investment in Improvements Planned
Future Plans Owners
I don't plan to do anything with my pool 50%
I plan to make improvements to my pool 28% Plan to Spend in
the Next 2 Years
I plan to completely refurbish my pool 15%
$3,000 on average
I plan to replace my pool 4%
estimated
I plan to do something else 2%
I plan to de-commission or remove my 1%
pool
q35 – Which of the following best describes your future plans with respect to your pool in the next 2 years?
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63. Exposure to Pool Features and Upgrades
Low NOx Emissions Heaters – These compact heaters are eco-friendly, offer the best in efficiency and work quickly to warm up your
pool. That means less time waiting for your pool to warm up, energy savings and more time enjoying it.
LED Pool Lighting – Pools are great for daytime fun but they take on a whole new life at night, especially with energy efficient LED
lighting. Set the light to the color of your choice or opt to have the lights cycle through the different color at a predetermined interval – all
while using 80% less energy than traditional pool lighting.
Natural Pool Sanitation Systems – Natural pool sanitation is a great way to be kind to the environment, save money on expensive pool
chemicals and also create a more inviting swimming environment. Using the same minerals found in nature to cleanse your pool
water, natural sanitation can reduce your pool's chlorine needs by up to 80% and won’t irritate your skin, eyes or leave you smelling like
chlorine.
Automatic Pool Cleaners – Spend less time cleaning and more time enjoying your pool with an automatic pool cleaner.
Automatic pool cleaners reduce the need to scrub, skim and vacuum while minimizing debris build-up in your filters, the need to
use harsh chemicals and extending the life of your pool filtration system.
Automatic Pool Controls – Control or program your pool heater, pumps, lights and automatic cleaner remotely using a
touchpad, Smartphone or other internet connected device. Automatic controls can help you automate pool maintenance, conserve
energy and make sure your pool is ready when everyone’s ready to jump in.
Solar Swimming Pool Heaters – Harness the power of the sun to warm your pool. A solar heating system can keep your pool up to 15
degrees warmer, extending your swimming season without increasing your utility bills. Solar pool heaters are cost competitive with
traditional natural gas, propane and electric pool heaters and, with the energy savings you realize, ends up paying for itself.
Natural Salt Chlorination Systems – Save money, time, and hassle the natural way. A pool with natural salt chlorination requires less
maintenance and is cheaper to maintain than a chlorine pool. Better yet, salt water chlorination won’t sting your eyes, fade your swimsuit
or leave you smelling like chlorine. Spend less time managing water chemistry and more time swimming.
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64. Need to Build Awareness of Pool Features and Upgrades
Familiarity Purchase Interest
(Ext/Very) (Ext/Very Likely)
Pool Features and Upgrades
Owners Prospects Owners Prospects
Among Pool Owners
Automatic Pool Cleaners 60% 38% 45% 72%
Automatic Pool Controls 47% 32% 32% 58%
Solar Swimming Pool Heaters 41% 32% 38% 61%
LED Pool Lighting 39% 33% 40% 54%
Natural Salt Chlorination Systems 33% 34% 33% 62%
Natural Pool Sanitation Systems 24% 28% 29% 54%
Low NOx Emissions Heaters 19% 22% 28% 47%
q41P - How familiar are you with each of the following pool features or improvements listed below?
q42P - How interested are you in purchasing each of the following pool features or improvements listed below?
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65. Pool Business Owner Highlights
Pool Market Overview
Features/Benefits and Channel Dynamics
Targeting/Communications
Closing Considerations
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66. The Target
This
Prospects
42 Years Old
(But many < 34)
2/3 have kids
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67. The Non-Target
Not This!
Non-Prospects
Already Have
Mud-Pit
No Teeth
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68. Paying for the pool usually involves financing
How did/will you pay for
Prospects
installing pool
Financed/will finance it 33%
Average saved
Mix of financing and cash 41%
$7,200
Pay in full with cash that I saved
24%
saving
Some other way 1%
44% have dipped into their pool Have done so 3 times on
savings to cover other average
expenses
1Among prospects who plan to pay for their pool in part or in full with cash
2Among all prospects
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69. Purchases Competing Most with Pool
Most Competing with Pool Purchase Prospects
Car, truck, van or SUV 33%
Financial investments/savings 25%
Home renovations 23%
Vacation 18%
Second home 9%
Hot tub 9%
Home furnishings 7%
Boat (motorboat/sailboat/yacht) 6%
Watches/jewelry 3%
Something else not listed 8%
q53 - Which of the following things are most competing with your purchase of a pool? That is, which of these take money away that you
otherwise would use to purchase a pool?
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70. Increasing the Priority of Pool Installation
Pool Purchase Options Prospects
Discount on installation 40%
No-interest financing offer 39%
Discount on premium pool features 30%
1-year pool maintenance included 29%
Long-term financing offer 26%
Free pool maintenance training for new
24%
owners
Personalized estimate and cost breakdown 20%
Special prices on future pool upgrades 20%
Transferrable warranty 14%
q54 - Which of the following would have the greatest impact on making having a pool installed a higher priority for you?
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71. Things Pool Shoppers Think are Done Well
Attributes Receiving Higher Ratings
(Past 5 Year Pool Shoppers)
Offers quality products for sale
Keeping up with the times
Knowledgeable sales people on hand
Clean, bright and well organized showroom
Products are up to date and stocked appropriately
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72. Things Pool Shoppers Think are Done Not So Well
Attributes Receiving Weaker Ratings
(Past 5 Year Pool Shoppers)
Sales people have strong client service skills
Is 'in touch' with its customer base
Attractive store front/presence (from the road)
Leverages technology in sales/product demos
Sales people have your best interest at heart
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73. Trusting Less/Searching More
85 % %
Rely less on
2
Trust the advice
salespeople
they receive from
today than in the
salespeople
past
Source: Affluent Attitudes Towards Salespeople,
Harrison Group, 2010
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73
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74. Tough to Enter the Circle of Trust
Realtors
Doctors
Travel
Family
Sales-
Agent SELF people
Lawyers
Close Friends
Financial advisors
at financial Insurance
institutions agents
Financial advisors
at banks
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75. Building Relationships: Stages of Reciprocity
Nominal Cursory acknowledgements
Ordinal Ordinary, basic information
Transactional Information related to the
Transaction at hand
Obligation is on the
Private information – calls for
company rep. to self- Intimate reciprocity
disclose first
Trusting Sharing of information that puts the
teller at risk – very rare
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76. Good Salespersons
This
Clean Cut
Love their Job
Feel Fortunate
Not excessively deal
driven
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77. Bad Salespersons
Not This!
You Get the
Idea!
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78. Strength of Pool Messages
Prospects
Extremely Strong Ext./Very Strong
Make the most out of your backyard with a new pool 21% 57%
Make the most of your "staycations" with a pool 25% 55%
Pools have never been easier and less expensive to 21% 52%
maintain with advances in features and technology
The best break —a pool at home 21% 52%
Invest in your family with a pool 18% 51%
Complete your home with a pool 25% 49%
Rethink your backyard with a pool 16% 46%
q55P - How strong are each of the following messages at driving your interest in purchasing a pool?
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Notes de l'éditeur
IranEuro debtChina economy – full scale real estate tumbleIn the event of a real problem will just take the money away from rich people
Bubble in 2011 did not pan out. Has built more skepticism and expected need to continue to ride things out
Item number:79071624
Incomes up 6% for top 1% in 2011. Slightly lower among everyone else.In ‘O7 savings was only 12% among the top 1%, now at 34%.And that has not changed even with everyone saying the recession is over – did not happen coming out of 1981 recession when consumers spent like a drunken sailor. Just ask the BMW guys. Part was changing passive income tax back then from 70% to 20%.
Almost $6 trillion in personal savings account by end of year. Another $3-4 trillion in cash among business. Getting 0.3% interest and not complaining Wealthy Americans are funding the debt today making it more difficult to tax them. Obama has a tendency to attack the rich and Republicans are attacking Romney for success?
Almost $6 trillion in personal savings account by end of year. Another $3-4 trillion in cash among business. Getting 0.3% interest and not complaining Wealthy Americans are funding the debt today making it more difficult to tax them. Obama has a tendency to attack the rich and Republicans are attacking Romney for success?
SR4
This is not a literal interpretation
Convert to tracking among top 10%Repeat – later on in siege, 90, 9, 1%
Segments were created from a cluster analysis of attitudinal statements from the 2012 Survey of Affluence & Wealth Study. Based on their correlation with attributes related to belief in luxury as embodying craftsmanship, quality and service, 87% of respondents were classified into one of the four groups (13% remained unclassified). Those with the highest positive correlation to “Worth” statements such as “I am willing to pay full price on the products and services I buy to get the quality and service I deserve” are classified as “Fundamentally Worth-oriented” while those with the highest negative correlation to these statements are “Fundamentally Deal-oriented.”
Euro vs. luxury brands – worth are likely to buy luxury auto, hotels/resorts, jewelry etc.