The document summarizes research on the impact of refugees on host communities' food security. While initially refugees and host communities face food security problems, over time markets adapt through labor and goods exchanges. Refugees may increase food production and prices in host areas. More evidence is needed on long-term impacts and how policies can strengthen host resilience, including public goods, infrastructure, and aligning incentives across stakeholders to solve protracted crises. The research agenda should analyze relative impacts of policy options to transition from aid to development.

1. Refugees, Food Security, and Resilience in Host
Communities
A. Mabiso, J.-F. Maystadt, J. Vandercasteelen, and K. Hirvonen
http://www.ifpri.org/publication/refugees-food-security-and-resilience-
host-communities
Jean-François Maystadt
LICOS & IFPRI
Email: J.F.Maystadt@cgiar.org
@jfmaystadt
IFPRI 2020 Conference (May 15, 2014)
LICOS Centre for
Institutions and
Economic
Performance

2. Conflict and Food Security
• While food security has improved globally
over the past decades, it remains a major
problem in areas of conflict.
• Conflicts have also been found to have
detrimental effects on neighboring countries
• Understanding the causes of conflict
(http://www.ifpri.org/publication/building-
resilience-conflict-through-food-security-
policies-and-programs) and spillovers
mechanisms is needed to build resilience

3. The burden of hosting refugees?
“Major refugee movements can cause food-security problems both among the
refugees themselves and in the receiving areas” (FAO 1996, sect; 15)”
Source: Mabiso et al. (2014): http://www.ifpri.org/publication/refugees-food-security-
and-resilience-host-communities

4. A misleading correlation
Source: Mabiso et al. (2014). Left panel: raw correlation ; Right panel: net of country fixed
effects.

5. Why is the correlation misleading?
• Correlation is not causality : Most refugees
are hosted in neighboring countries facing
food-security problems for many other
reasons
• No systematic relationship or diluted into
national statistics?
• More fundamentaly, cross-country analysis is
too limited to shed light on complex
interactions between refugees and hosts
• Too short-sighted view in contrast with the
protracted nature of most refugee situations

6. Taking stock of the evidence

7. Key lessons learned (1)
• Although more evidence is needed, current focus on
health and violence too limited
• Role of labor and good markets as adaptation
mechanisms (see Tanzania, Kenya, Darfur, Uganda)
• Immediate upward pressure on nonaid prices affects food
accessibility but both food aid and the incentives to produce more
can have second-order effects on prices (Werker 2007, Alix-garcia
and Saah 2010, Alix-Garcia et al. 2012)
• Labor supply by refugees in some cases (e.g. Tanzania) leads to
large production increase
• Large distributional effects (Maystadt and Verwimp 2014,
Kreibaum 2013, Alix-Garcia and Bartlett 2012)
• Policy objective: Strengthen adaptative capacities of the host
• Increased awareness for env. degradation should be
pursued

8. Key lessons learned (2)
• Beyond market mechanisms, provision of local
public goods likely to strengthen the
capacities of the poor
• Little is known about the long-term impact,
while that is certainly key for transitioning
from humanitarian assistance to
developmental efforts
• Opportunity to capitalize on investments such as
improved road infrastructure and social networks
(Maystadt and Duranton 2014)
• More evidence would help design appropriate solutions
to protracted refugee situations

9. Moving the research agenda forward
• More evidence (based on mixed methods) to
generalize findings, draw policy guidelines and
understand the legacy of the refugee inflows
• Undertake deeper analysis of policy options
to solve protracted refugee situations and to
assess relative efficiency of different
interventions
• Better align incentives of policymakers,
practitioners, and researchers

10. APPENDIX
A. Mabiso, J.-F. Maystadt, J. Vandercasteelen, and K. Hirvonen
LICOS & IFPRI
Email: J.F.Maystadt@cgiar.org
@jfmaystadt
IFPRI 2020 Conference (May 15, 2014)
LICOS Centre for
Institutions and
Economic
Performance

11. Recent surge in displacement
Source: Mabiso et al. (2014): http://www.ifpri.org/publication/refugees-food-
security-and-resilience-host-communities

12. Appendix - Health

13. Appendix – Production, transport and
trade
Maystadt and Duranton (2014)

14. Appendix – Food and nonfood prices

15. Appendix - Labor