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10/17/2011




     #LKBE2011 #realoptions
        October 3, 2011                                       When is something a
 IT Risk Management                                             commitment?
   using Real Options

   and Real Liquidity


Olav Maassen (Xebia)       Chris Matts(EB)
olav.maassen@xebia.com   chris.matts@gmail.com
     @olavmaassen           @papachrismatts




 When is something optional?                                    Do you have a choice?

                                                                             Option

                                                                    Commitment

                                                               Decision
                                                                                                 4
                                                  © MacUK




                                                 5                                               6
                                                 © foxhusky                             ©travellinglibrarian




                                                                                                               1
10/17/2011




     7                     8
© theseanster93     © cristiano_betta




     9                    10
  © pagedooley    © state-records-nsw




                          12
© Nick Anderson        © Screenpunk




                                        2
10/17/2011




       13              14
© Industry is virtue   © paulcheek




       15              16
      © Angelsgate




       17




                                     3
10/17/2011




Options           Options              Never
have              expire              commit
value                                   early
                                       unless
                                         you
                                        know
                                         why

© luismi1985      © givepeasachance      © Tub Gurnard




                                                                           Getting to Berlin




                                                                                                           22
                                                  © lollyknit                                              © Monville




                Real Liquidity                                         Real Liquidity Exercise
                                                                • What are the things that increase this
                                                                  time?
                    Time from
        making an investment commitment
                           to
               realizing its benefits.


                                                 23                                                        24




                                                                                                                        4
10/17/2011




                                                            © Originalwpa




  Getting Staff                   Procuring Equipment




                     25                                       26
                     © Antrophe




   Contracts                         Training staff




                     27                                       28
                       © frank3                         © pittsburghkarate




Facilities (Desks)                   Team Gelling




                     29                                       30
                      © pacdog                                © chriswaits




                                                                             5
10/17/2011




Choosing technology and
                                             Architecture
     methodology




                            31                                  32
                              © Alisdair                        © asmythie




  Brooks was wrong




                            33
                                                            © Nick Anderson




                                           A Month
                          © PhilFranklin




                                                                              6
10/17/2011




                                                        A Day


                                                       An Hour
http://www.flickr.com/photos/embreyart/422
9109725/sizes/m/in/photostream/      © embreyart




                                                       A Minute
                                      © bobgcampbell




                                                                        7
10/17/2011




                                A Second
             © safaripartners




ROLL BACK!
                                                                          Its
                                                                         not
                                                                        about
                                                                      probability




                    © Hufse        © kagedfish




        It’s                    If your time it takes to recover is greater
                                  than the time you can survive, you die
       about
      survival
                                Which means you need more options.




                                                                              48
             © sheshodesigns




                                                                                      8
10/17/2011




                Business Value 101
                                                                      When is something a
                                                                        commitment?




                              © abuziyad         © gunthert




Options                Options                Never
                                                                                 Real Liquidity
have                   expire                commit
value                                          early
                                              unless                             Time from
                                                you                  making an investment commitment
                                               know                                     to
                                                                            realizing its benefits.
                                                why

© luismi1985                                                                                          52
                       © givepeasachance             © Tub Gurnard




       If your time it takes to recover is greater
         than the time you can survive, you die



       Which means you need more options.


                                                                       STOP
                                                                     Guessing!
                                                                                                  © topher76
                                                              53




                                                                                                               9
10/17/2011




                                                                       Prepare to run fast.




  Create Options



                         © haydnseek
                                       © James Temple




                                                Thank you!

                                             Contact info:             Contact info:
                                             Olav Maassen (Xebia)      Chris Matts (EB)
                                             olav.maassen@xebia.com    Chris.matts@gmail.com
                                             twitter.com/olavmaassen   twitter.com/papachrismatts


                    ……and
© lordkirbs
                   have fun.




                                                                                                           10

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Olav maassen risk management

  • 1. 10/17/2011 #LKBE2011 #realoptions October 3, 2011 When is something a IT Risk Management commitment? using Real Options and Real Liquidity Olav Maassen (Xebia) Chris Matts(EB) olav.maassen@xebia.com chris.matts@gmail.com @olavmaassen @papachrismatts When is something optional? Do you have a choice? Option Commitment Decision 4 © MacUK 5 6 © foxhusky ©travellinglibrarian 1
  • 2. 10/17/2011 7 8 © theseanster93 © cristiano_betta 9 10 © pagedooley © state-records-nsw 12 © Nick Anderson © Screenpunk 2
  • 3. 10/17/2011 13 14 © Industry is virtue © paulcheek 15 16 © Angelsgate 17 3
  • 4. 10/17/2011 Options Options Never have expire commit value early unless you know why © luismi1985 © givepeasachance © Tub Gurnard Getting to Berlin 22 © lollyknit © Monville Real Liquidity Real Liquidity Exercise • What are the things that increase this time? Time from making an investment commitment to realizing its benefits. 23 24 4
  • 5. 10/17/2011 © Originalwpa Getting Staff Procuring Equipment 25 26 © Antrophe Contracts Training staff 27 28 © frank3 © pittsburghkarate Facilities (Desks) Team Gelling 29 30 © pacdog © chriswaits 5
  • 6. 10/17/2011 Choosing technology and Architecture methodology 31 32 © Alisdair © asmythie Brooks was wrong 33 © Nick Anderson A Month © PhilFranklin 6
  • 7. 10/17/2011 A Day An Hour http://www.flickr.com/photos/embreyart/422 9109725/sizes/m/in/photostream/ © embreyart A Minute © bobgcampbell 7
  • 8. 10/17/2011 A Second © safaripartners ROLL BACK! Its not about probability © Hufse © kagedfish It’s If your time it takes to recover is greater than the time you can survive, you die about survival Which means you need more options. 48 © sheshodesigns 8
  • 9. 10/17/2011 Business Value 101 When is something a commitment? © abuziyad © gunthert Options Options Never Real Liquidity have expire commit value early unless Time from you making an investment commitment know to realizing its benefits. why © luismi1985 52 © givepeasachance © Tub Gurnard If your time it takes to recover is greater than the time you can survive, you die Which means you need more options. STOP Guessing! © topher76 53 9
  • 10. 10/17/2011 Prepare to run fast. Create Options © haydnseek © James Temple Thank you! Contact info: Contact info: Olav Maassen (Xebia) Chris Matts (EB) olav.maassen@xebia.com Chris.matts@gmail.com twitter.com/olavmaassen twitter.com/papachrismatts ……and © lordkirbs have fun. 10