Note on hypothesis point, just in case they ask – because it is only fair to point out that while coordination solves some problems, it may create others (depending on the model used to achieve coordination), potentially including: High process cost – meetings and other mechanisms Decrease in response speed Increased homogeneity, leading to potential avoidance of risk and innovation
NB: We will be launching the Leadership study on 9 th June, all very welcome! Humanitarian Leadership requires same generic skills as leadership in other sectors, but weighting is different, and there is a particular emphasis on networking and relational skills; working in complexity with limited information; values and sectoral experience
NB: middle not exactly middle, but all minus G20 and LDCs From: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 revision. UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Caveat – these overall trends speculative – many variables (migration; demographics; technological advances) not taken into account, and feedback relationship between elements (increased population leads to wars, for example) not taken into account. BUT The trends above suggest that populations of concern in model 4 will increase – largely because populations will continue to grow rapidly in these areas And also because populations of concern in model 2/3 will increase – with popln growth, but also with an increased number of states developing (assumption) and with increased urbanisaiton, bringing people especially to coasts and megadeltas.
‘ Business as usual’: adequate, but not optimal for model 4. Inadequate for models 2/3 Improve ability to respond to model 4 – ‘providers of last resort’: this would require addressing the key challenges (above): Much more effective for model 4 Improve ability to respond to models 2, 3,4 – ‘humanitarian partners’ This would require the system (particularly NGOs??) to address key challenges and engage with the state in new ways:
![Typology of Response: 4 Models ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)