Ed McMahon holds the Charles E. Fraser Chair on Sustainable Development at the Urban Land Institute in Washington, DC where he is nationally known as a thought provoking speaker and leading authority on topics related to sustainable development, land conservation, smart growth, and historic preservation. As the Senior Fellow for Sustainable Development, Mr. McMahon leads ULI’s worldwide efforts to conduct research and educational activities related to environmentally sensitive development policies and practices. He is the author or co-author of 15 books and over 200 articles, and has drafted numerous local land use plans and ordinances. His books include: Conservation Communities: Creating Value with Nature, Open Space and Agriculture; Developing Sustainable Planned Communities, Green Infrastructure: Connecting Landscape and Communities, Land Conservation Finance, and Balancing Nature and Commerce in Gateway Communities. In his years of work he has organized successful efforts to acquire and protect urban parkland, wilderness areas, and other conservation properties, activities that have been at the heart of planning and conservation in Florida for decades.

1. APA Florida © Ed McMahon Urban Land Institute September 9, 2011

2. ULIMission The mission of the Urban Land Institute is to provide leadership in the responsible use of land and in creating and sustaining thriving communities world wide

3. What is SustainableDevelopment and why is it vital? “If you’re not changing business as usual, you’re failing.” -- Brent Toderian, Planning Director, Vancouver, B.C

4. “Sustainabledevelopmentisdevelopmentthatmeetstheneedsofthepresentwithoutcompromisingtheabilityoffuturegenerationstomeettheirownneeds.” Source: United Nations, Bruntland Commission Report

5. It is about our children

6. It’s about balance “Conservation is a state of harmony between man and nature.” Aldo Leopold

7. SustainabilityGoals Healthy Environment Vigorous Economy Vibrant Community

8. Sustainability in Action

9. ShadesofGreen ParsleyGreen GrassGreen ParsleyGreen GrassGreen TreeGreen FullSpectrumGreen FullSpectrumGreen TreeGreen

10. ParsleyGreen

11. TreeGreen Greenbuilding Sustainablematerials Energyefficiency Waste management Indoor air quality The vertical dimension

12. LEEDProjectsinUSAtotal31,000+in2010 7748 LEED Certified Projects 31,975+ LEED Registered Projects Test

13. “$12 Billion was spent on Green Buildings in 2008. This is expected to grow to $60 Billion by 2013.” McGraw-Hill Construction Smart Market Trends Report, 2008

14. GreenRetrofits 98% of building stock is existing buildings 75% of commercial buildings are more than 20 years old There is a $400 billion market for energy efficiency rehabs in coming years Empire State Building is retrofitting to reduce energy use by 40% - with a 3 year payback Empire State Building , New York

15. Will the Recession Effect Green? Despite the recession, a significant number of green projects are under construction, and even larger backlog of green buildings await certification, ensuring that the near term supply of green buildings will continue to increase. Various market forces, regulatory incentives & mandates will continue to pressure real estate owners & managers to enhance the sustainability of their portfolios. Focus will shift to affordable repositioning & more efficient property operations. Green buildings will continue to outperform conventional buildings due to their relative scarcity relative to demand. The recession will slow, but not fundamentally alter, the market shift to sustainable real estate. Source: RREEF Research, San Francisco, CA., 2009

16. “As green buildings become more common, conventional buildings will rapidly lose value and become obsolete.” Source: Charles Lockwood Harvard Business Journal

17. GrassGreen Sustainable location Good site planning Design in harmony with nature Master planning The horizontal dimension

18. “Green buildings in wrong location are not truly green. Smart growth that does not take advantage of green building is not smart.” – Jonathan Rose “Where you build is just as important as what you build.” - Peter Calthrope

19. Sustainable Development effects Land Development not just buildings Street is 40 feet wide

20. Street is 24 feet wide

21. Good Site Planning & Street Design Less pavement means more affordable housing Less pavement is better for the environment Narrower streets are safer for children

22. Full Spectrum Green Affordablehousing Placemaking Communitybuilding Greenlifestyles Balancescommunity,economy& environment

23. Sustainability is about more than technology At its most basic, “sustainable” means enduring. Sustainable communities are places of enduring value. Sustainability is about affordability, walkability, place-making, community building.

24. “If a building, a landscape or a city is not beautiful, it will not be loved, if it is not loved, it won’t be maintained and improved. In short , it won’t be sustained.” Doug Kelbaugh, Dean, University of Michigan, School of Architecture

29. Planning?

30. Secrets of Successful Communities Develop a vision for the future Inventory local assets and resources Build plans around the enhancement of assets Use education, incentives, partnerships and voluntary initiatives – not just regulation Pick and choose among development proposals Cooperate with neighbors for mutual benefit Protect community character as well as ecology and economics Have strong leaders & committed citizens

31. Like it or not, more change is coming.

32. Things You Can’t Control Demographic changes Technology National and global economy Consumer attitudes & market trends Energy prices Climate change and extreme weather

33. There two kinds of change: Planned change, and Unplanned change

34. How will the Crash Reshape America? How we live, work, shop and get around will change. Communities that embrace the future will prosper. Those that do not will decline.

35. What’s the future? Is it this?

36. Or, is it this?

37. The Old Paradigm

38. The future belongs to main streets, town centers and mixed use development Strip retail is retail for the last century

39. Here is Why: We’re overbuilt on the strip Retail is rediscovering the city The suburbs are being redesigned Traffic congestion, fuel prices and auto-oriented (i.e. ugly design) are undermining the strip Consumers favor walkability and places with character E-commerce means fewer and smaller stores The economy is restructuring the retail landscape

40. We’re Overbuilt on the Strip Ten fold increase in retail space from 1960-2000. From 4 to 38 square feet per person. US has more than double the retail space per person as Europe. There is now more than 1billion square feet of vacant retail space (mostly in empty big box stores)

41. Retail space grew faster than retail sales

42. Department Store vs. Big Box Downtown Multi-story Accessible by Transit Footprint – about 1 acre Outside of town Single story Accessible by car Footprint –about 12 acres

43. Development Pattern Reinforced Driving

44. Suburbs Are Being Redesigned “The largest retail trend of the next generation will be the conversion of dead or dying strip commercial centers in the suburbs into walkable urban places.” Source: Chris Leinberger, The Brookings Institution

45. Historic Rockville, MD Mostly demolished in 1970

46. Rockville Mall – Rockville, MD

47. Rockville, MD – Town Center Rockville, MD Town Center

48. The Opportunity The New Promised Land?

49. Tear Up Parking Lot, Rebuild Paradise Large, flat, well drained site Major infrastructure in place 4 lane highway frontage, transit ready Saves rural land Committed to mixed use Can turn NIMBY’s into YIMBY’s 2.8 million acres of greyfields will be available in next 15 years

50. We Are Going From This: Spread Out Single Use Drivable Only

51. To This! Compact Mixed-Use Walkable

52. Tyson’s Corner Today Americas 1st edge city – Nation’s 10th largest CBD – 3 rush hours daily

53. Tysons Corner - Tomorrow Tysons Corner, VA just received APA’s 2011 Daniel Burnham Award for a adopting a visionary Comprehensive Plan that will transform Tysons from America’s first edge City into a walkable, mixed use downtown served by 4 rail transit stations.

54. Retail is Rediscovering the City King Street, Charleston, South Carolina

55. New Life for Old Buildings In December 2010, Target announced that it would renovate and occupy 125,000 Square feet in the landmark Carson Pirie Scott building in Chicago.

56. The Changing Shape & Location of Big Box Stores A growing number of big box stores are locating downtown, in multistory buildings which means they use less land, fit better with the community and are accessible by foot or on transit. Typical Target Store Multi-story Target store Target, Washington, DC

57. Target – Minneapolis, MN

58. Target – Stamford, CT

59. Wal-Mart, Washington, DC

60. Home Depot - NYC

61. Home Depot - Vancouver

62. Traffic Congestion, Gas Prices and Design Favor Main Streets Where would you rather shop today?

63. Characteristics of the Strip A reliance on cars to go everywhere. Traffic congestion Lots of big signs, traffic lights and driveways Streetscape dominated by parking lots Little or no landscaping Cheap, cookie-cutter buildings Nothing unique – every town’s strip looks the same. Typical Strip – Ugly and Congested

64. The Nature of Commercial Strips “The distinguishing characteristic of commercials strips is there undisguised ugliness, although traffic congestion now runs a close second.” Source: Ten Principles for Reshaping the Strip,ULI

65. Characteristics of Downtown Walkable and pedestrian friendly Streetscape dominated by buildings Easy to get around because of street grid Park once environment Beautiful, one of a kind structures Every downtown looks different Typical Downtown – Walkable and Unique

66. What does the future look like? Rockville Pike Downtown Bethesda Barnes & Noble, Rockville Pike, MD Barnes and Noble, Bethesda, MD

67. “People stay longer, spend more money and come back more often to places that attract their affection.” Source: Urban Design and the Bottom Line, ULI, 2009

68. What will High Energy Prices Mean for the Future? In 1970 the US imported 24% of its oil from foreign providers In 1990 the US imported 42% of its oil In 2008 the US imported 70% of its oil The cost of imported oil reached over $600 billion per year in 2008

69. Do you think the long term trend for energy prices is to go up or down?

70. “Going forward the distance between where we live and work will matter more and attractive mixed use places (in both cities and suburbs) that offer more convenient lifestyles will benefit.”

71. The Economy is Restructuring Retail

72. The Old Formats Strip shopping centers Enclosed malls Power centers Distinct Property types and homogenous tenant lineups made for tidy divisions within the shopping center industry. Today this is changing!

75. Retail sales and sales tax revenues

76. Hotel room and occupancy rates,

77. On-site and adjacent property values

78. Office and retail lease rates.” - Urban Land Magazine

79. Technology is Changing Retail More of these, means Less of these.

80. E - Commerce Means Fewer and Smaller Stores The nation’s healthiest retailer is Amazon E - commerce helps small businesses level the playing field. E-commerce means the downsizing or disappearance of many chain stores Staples – the pioneer of the superstore concept is now the 2nd largest online retailer.

81. Demographics is changing where we live and shop. Mississippi Ave, Portland, OR Barracks Row, Washington, DC Manayunk, Philadelphia, PA Capitol Hill, Seattle, WA

82. Demographic Shifts Baby Boomers and Retirees – 80 million Immigrants – 40 million Millennials (18 to 30 year olds) – 80 million Women (single-parent households) - 30 million 75 % of American households do not have school age children

83. Reasons for Market Demand for Walkable, Mixed Use Neighborhoods Rising costs for gasoline & transportation Baby boomers becoming empty nesters Boredom with conventional development Demand greatly exceeds supply Young people like urban lifestyles (short commutes, nightlife, etc.)

85. Americans favor walkable, mixed-use neighborhoods 77% want neighborhoods with abundant sidewalks and other pedestrian facilities. 88% placed more value on quality of neighborhood than the size of the house. 59% would choose a smaller house, if it meant less driving. 73% of young adults (35 or younger) favor neighborhoods with a mix of house and businesses over areas with housing only. Source: National Association of Realtors Survey, February, 2011

89. Walkable Development is a Low Cost Climate Change Strategy Compact development can cut driving by 20 % to 40% percent. We already have the technology to build walkable communities. Pursuing compact development involves shifting investments that have to be built anyway. Walkable communities can save people money and improve public health. Source: Growing Cooler: Evidence on Urban Development & Climate Change, Urban Land Institute, October, 2007

90. Walkable Communities Workers in Bethesda, MD walk or use transit for 74% of their non-commute trips (errands, lunch, shopping, etc) Workers in Germantown, MD (an auto oriented suburb) use the car for 90 % of their non-commute trips. Source: US Department of Transportation

91. Compact Development vs. Sprawl Sprawl Compact development Medium to high densities Mixed uses Centered development Interconnected streets Pedestrian & transit friendly design Low densities Single uses Strip development Poorly connected streets Auto-oriented design

92. We Can Go From This

93. To This

94. Shopping Mall – Before Boca Mall – Boca Raton, Florida

95. Shopping Mall - After Mizner Place, Boca Raton, Florida

96. But will Americans accept the higher densities that come with more compact, mixed use Development?

97. Americans Don’t Like 2 Things Too Much Sprawl Too Much Density

98. Overcoming Opposition to Density High Quality Design Access to Green Space Amenities More choices in ways to get around High Density only in clearly defined areas

99. Density Requires Good Design & Compensating Amenity

100. Density Comparisons Charleston, SC – 8.3 units per acre Sun City, AZ – 5.0 units per acre

101. Density Comparisons Las Vegas, 37.4 Units per acre New Orleans, 38.9 units per acre

102. Higher-Density Can Be Attractive & Valuable

103. Florida Neighborhoods Old Northeast, St Petersburg City Place, West Palm Beach Riverside, Jacksonville

104. As we densify our communities we must simultaneously green our communities Minneapolis Park System Metro St. Louis Greenway Plan

105. How Do We Green A Community? Street Trees Green Parking Lots Green Roofs Greenways

106. How Do You Green A City? Community Gardens Green Sound Walls Rain Gardens Urban Agriculture

107. Community Parks

108. WhereisthemostvaluablelandinNewYork ?

109. How will the Crash Reshape America? How we live, work, shop and get around will change. Communities that embrace the future will prosper. Those that do not will decline.

110. Horatio Nelson Jackson - 1903 8000 cars No Gas Stations No Parking lots No highway departments No paved roads Horses were the primary mode of travel 1st cross country trip by auto

111. Twenty Years later - 1923 10 million cars 100,000 miles of paved roads Every state had a highway department Gas stations and parking lots transform cities Horses a thing of the past Traffic Jam , New York City - 1923

112. Thank you Ed McMahon Urban Land Institute emcmahon@uli.org