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Florida 2060 Revisited,[object Object],Charles Pattison,[object Object],Frances Chandler-Marino,[object Object],Melina Duggal,[object Object],Debra Dremann,[object Object],Wellyn Land Company,[object Object]
Florida 2060,[object Object],In 2006, the 1000 Friends of Florida sanctioned a trend analysis of development/population distribution,[object Object],Based on 2005 data,[object Object],Depicted a sprawling pattern of development that covered much of central Florida ,[object Object]
Population Forecast,[object Object],35.8 Million,[object Object],17.9 Million,[object Object],2060,[object Object],2005,[object Object]
Revised BEBR Mid Ranch ,[object Object],Population Numbers,[object Object],2005 – 2020	22,894,140 v. 21,325,800 (93%),[object Object],2020 – 2040	29,203,842 v. 26,081,800 (89%),[object Object],2040 – 2060	35,814,574 v. 32,591,262 (91%),[object Object]
Assumptions,[object Object],	1. Moderate Population Growth (BEBR trend line),[object Object],	2. New population consumes land at same density as existing development, by County,[object Object],	3. New population distributed geographically based on land suitability (existing urban, roadways, water, coastline, wetlands),[object Object]
Developed Land,[object Object],Conservation LandsPermanently Protected,[object Object],Existing Developed Lands and Permanent Conservation Lands,[object Object]
Developed Land,[object Object],Conservation LandsPermanently Protected,[object Object],2060 Developed Lands and Permanent Conservation Lands,[object Object]
Statewide Land Use Allocation (millions of acres),[object Object],PermanentlyProtectedConservation10.8,[object Object],PermanentlyProtectedConservation10.8,[object Object],Agriculture, Other Undeveloped Lands12.5,[object Object],Agriculture, Other Undeveloped Lands19.5,[object Object],Water2.0,[object Object],Water2.0,[object Object],Urban Development6.0,[object Object],Urban Development13.0,[object Object],2060,[object Object],2005,[object Object],Total: 38.3 Million Acres,[object Object]
Developed Land,[object Object],Conservation LandsPermanently Protected,[object Object],Developed Land and Permanent Conservation Lands,[object Object],2005,[object Object],2060,[object Object]
Issues Not Addressed,[object Object],Water supply,[object Object],Additional land acquisition,[object Object],Sea level rise,[object Object],Changes in market demand,[object Object],Reasonableness of business as usual,[object Object],Local comprehensive plans,[object Object]
IS Florida 2060 Still Relevant?,[object Object],Have market conditions changed forever?,[object Object],Are the 2005 assumptions still reasonable?,[object Object],Has the sprawling pattern of development become obsolete?,[object Object],Is the financial climate so dissimilar that growth can’t be funded?,[object Object]
Revisiting 2060,[object Object],Delayed or Different?,[object Object],A Market Perspective,[object Object],12,[object Object]
We Are In The Recovery Phase…It Just Doesn’t Feel Like It Yet…,[object Object],13,[object Object]
Unemployment Rates By County,[object Object],2007 Annual Averages,[object Object]
Unemployment Rates By County,[object Object],2009 Annual Averages,[object Object],September 2010,[object Object]
Unemployment Rates By County,[object Object],March 2010 – February 2011 Averages,[object Object],FL still suffering,[object Object]
Unemployment Rates By County,[object Object],August 2010 – July 2011 Averages,[object Object],Starting to look better,[object Object]
18,[object Object],2013 – The Next “Normal” Year,[object Object],Slow To Moderate Growth Through Recovery,[object Object],[object Object]
Housing starts begin to rise in 2012
Lending standards and regulatory uncertainties loosen in 2012
Boomers and Gen Y enter market in 2015+RCLCO PROJECTIONS FOR RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE RECOVERY,[object Object]
9 Million New People Projected in FL by 2040,[object Object],Projected Population Growth (Thousands) by Planning Region,[object Object],2010-2040,[object Object],SOURCE: BEBR Medium-High Projections from June 2011,[object Object]
In 2005, 35.8 Projected In 2060, Now 32.2m Projected In 2060,[object Object],	SOURCE:	BEBR, RCLCO, US Census,[object Object],20,[object Object]
21,[object Object],Current Supply And Demand,[object Object],SUPPLY: STILL OVER SUPPLIED,[object Object],But we’ve reduced inventories since 2007,[object Object],Not out of the woods, but not 2007,[object Object],THEN: Values will always go up: Wrong,[object Object],NOW: Everything has changed permanently: Wrong,[object Object],DEMAND: TWO BIG MARKETS WILL IMPACT FLORIDA,[object Object],Generation Y enters housing market,[object Object],Boomers retire – FL still warm and sunny,[object Object],SOURCE: RCLCO,[object Object]
Long-term Demographic Trends Influencing How We Live,[object Object],Key Demographic Drivers:,[object Object],Generational shifts,[object Object],Rise of non-traditional households,[object Object],Growth in minority households,[object Object],Domestic migration and foreign Immigration,[object Object],Income and wealth,[object Object],22,[object Object]
Gen Y And Baby Boomers Two Largest Groups Nationally And In Florida,[object Object],SOURCE: Claritas, National Center for Health Statistics,[object Object],23,[object Object]
Life Stage Influences Housing Choices,[object Object],SOURCE: RCLCO,[object Object]
25,[object Object],Where Do Different Generations Want To Live?,[object Object],Source: 2011 National Community Preference Survey, National Association of Realtors, March 2011 ,[object Object]
26,[object Object],How Does Product Preference Change By Generation?,[object Object],Source: 2011 National Community Preference Survey, National Association of Realtors, March 2011 ,[object Object]
Product Preference By Location,[object Object],[object Object]
City
More renters
MF, attached & small lot detached
30% attached
Suburban
Dominated by SFD, both small and large lot
15% attached
Rural/Small Town
Primarily large lot SFD
8% attached  Canin Associates,[object Object]
Demographics:  Impact Of Boomer,[object Object],“Urban myth” =  prefer “safe urbanism”,[object Object],Village center – entertainment & retail services nearby – walkable!,[object Object],Healthy active lifestyles,[object Object],Affordability,[object Object],Smaller, move-down homes, high-level of finish,[object Object],May rejuvenate 2nd home market,[object Object],Low-maintenancelifestyle,[object Object],Niche SFD and SFA products ,[object Object],28,[object Object],SOURCE: RCLCO,[object Object]
Demographics:  Impact of Gen X,[object Object],Primarily families - still have to build for the family buyer,[object Object],Good schools!!!!!!,[object Object],Larger lots/homes,[object Object],Affordability,[object Object],Healthy active lifestyles – safe neighborhoods, parks, trails and walkability!,[object Object],Hard to balance life - also desire in-town areas and inner suburbs close to jobs, entertainment & services,[object Object],SOURCE: RCLCO,[object Object],29,[object Object]
Demographics:  Impact Of Gen Y,[object Object],In-town areas and inner suburbs will remain on an upward trajectory,[object Object],Diversity, walkability and proximity to jobs keys to attracting this segment,[object Object],Suburbs will need to evolve to remain attractive to Gen Y,[object Object],More walkable areas, including new and existing town centers,[object Object],Master planned communities,[object Object], Niche products and “village centers”,[object Object],Affordability,[object Object],SOURCE: RCLCO,[object Object],30,[object Object]
How is the Development Community Responding ?,[object Object],2007 to 2010,[object Object],TODAY,[object Object]
Florida Housing Permits – Peak to Trough,[object Object],2010 Florida increased to 38,679 Units – Ranking #3 of the Top 10 States,[object Object],Texas #1 at 88,461 and California at 43,716,[object Object],Source:  US Census Bureau,[object Object]
9/9 FRI 4:15 | Rethinking Florida 2060
Key Influencers:,[object Object],[object Object]
Tremendous Amount of Competition
Changing Demographics
Availability of Capital,[object Object]
Banks stillVERY slow to move non-performing loans off of balance sheets
Home Values not at Bottom Yet – Market Specific
Continued Foreclosures activity for 2 to 3 more years
Global & Wall Street Instability,[object Object]
Access to Capital is BACK
Home Affordability is BACK (If you can qualify)
Florida still very desirable for Baby Boomers
The Rise of Gen Y

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9/9 FRI 4:15 | Rethinking Florida 2060

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Acceleration in job growth in 2011 not likely to produce typical rebound in owner occupied housing as in past recoveries due to:Tighter underwriting standards for 1st time buyersLack of urgency/confidence by potential buyersUncertainty around “qualifying mortgages” under Frank DoddBuilders focusing on rebuilding profitability over volume in 2011Improving macro economic conditions in 2012 will lead to increased housing starts in the 10-15% rangeHousing starts increase slowly toward the end of 2011 with minor price appreciation beginning in 2012 as foreclosures and shadow supply gets liquidated, and as buyer confidence around prices and jobs improvesRising rental rates (3 quarters of national growth) will push migration to increased ownershipLending standards and regulatory uncertainties loosen in 2012QUOTE: “It will be a slow recovery in demand (and thus values)” OR “Even in the recovery, we will see a bifurcated market, with well-leased, well-located product receiving a disproportionate share of investor, buyer, and renter interest.”