Looks ata variety of economic indicators for metro Atlanta, including employment, home prices, foreclosures, building permits, as well as office and retail trends.
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Atlanta Regional Commission Economic Indicators Report
1. The Atlanta Regional Commission’s “The Quarter” looks at some of the
leading indicators of overall economic health from a non-economist’s
view. It compares Atlanta to other metropolitan areas and looks at the
counties within the region where the data allow. While this is not a
comprehensive look at the local economy, it is a gauge of the general
direction the economy is moving.
3. 2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
2,400
2,450
2,500
Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13
Month-by-Month Total Employment (in thousands)
December 2005– March 2013
Overall employment levels are nearing the levels last seen in 2008, but we still have a long way to get
back to pre-recession levels.
Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary)
5. Total Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Initial unemployment insurance claims are spiky – with spikes usually occurring in January due to
seasonal layoffs after the holidays. But the latest month, March, has the lowest number of claims since
February 2008.
Source:
GA DOL
6. Monthly Building Permits – Metro Atlanta
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Source: SOCDS
The metro Atlanta housing market is still weak. There were 1,621 residential permits issued in March of
this year. In contrast, there were almost 7,300 residential permits issued in March of 2006.
7. Total Building Permits Issues – 2013 YTD (Through March)
Top 15 Metros
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Las Vegas
Boston
Philadelphia
Chicago
Orlando
Charlotte
Miami
Atlanta
Phoenix
Los Angeles
Austin
Washington DC
New York
Dallas
Houston
Although permitting activity is WAY off when compared to pre-recession, metro Atlanta still ranks 8th in
the nation in the number of residential permits issued thus far in 2013.
Source: SOCDS
8. County-By County: Total Building Permits Issued
2011-2013 (Through March)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2011
2012
2013
Most jurisdictions have seen more permitting activity in 2013 than in the previous year (through March).
Fulton County has issued, by far, the most residential permits thus far in 2013.
Source: SOCDS
9. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100)
Metro Atlanta: 2000 - Current
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Home prices have rebounded nicely since the beginning of 2012, although the gains have leveled off
somewhat of late. Still, home prices in metro Atlanta continue to trade below January 2000 prices, wiping
out a decade of housing price gains.
Source: Case-Shiller Index
10. -55.0%
-45.2%
-43.7%
-42.7%
-36.6%
-34.4%
-34.3%
-33.5%
-32.1%
-29.6%
-28.9%
-27.6%
-26.7%
-26.4%
-24.9%
-24.0%
-19.6%
-15.7%
-15.4%
-5.1%
-4.5%
-60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0%
NV-Las Vegas
FL-Miami
AZ-Phoenix
FL-Tampa
MI-Detroit
CA-San Diego
IL-Chicago
CA-Los Angeles
CA-San Francisco
Composite-10
GA-Atlanta
MN-Minneapolis
WA-Seattle
DC-Washington
NY-New York
OR-Portland
OH-Cleveland
MA-Boston
NC-Charlotte
CO-Denver
TX-Dallas
Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100)
Home Price Decline Since Peak
While a 29 percent decline in Atlanta home prices is not good, it is not as bad as the decline in
some other metro areas, particularly in the previously “hot” coastal markets and western
boomtowns.
Source: Case-Shiller Index
11. Foreclosure Filings (Through March)
2010 – 2013
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
In every county, foreclosures are lower in 2013, thus far, when compared to the same period in
the previous three years.
Source: Equity Depot
12. Office Vacancy Rate – Metro Atlanta
2000 - current
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20001Q
20002Q
20003Q
20004Q
20011Q
20012Q
20013Q
20014Q
20021Q
20022Q
20023Q
20024Q
20031Q
20032Q
20033Q
20034Q
20041Q
20042Q
20043Q
20044Q
20051Q
20052Q
20053Q
20054Q
20061Q
20062Q
20063Q
20064Q
20071Q
20072Q
20073Q
20074Q
20081Q
20082Q
20083Q
20084Q
20091Q
20092Q
20093Q
20094Q
20101Q
20102Q
20103Q
20104Q
20111Q
20112Q
20113Q
20114Q
20121Q
20122Q
20123Q
20124Q
20131Q
The recession earlier this decade drove up office vacancy rates for the next few years, and
they never returned to their pre‐recession levels. Vacancy rates continue to be higher than the
highest levels experienced during the last recession. However, vacancy is trending slightly downward.
Source: CoStar
14. Number of Retail Buildings Under Construction– Metro Atlanta
2000 - current
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
20001Q
20002Q
20003Q
20004Q
20011Q
20012Q
20013Q
20014Q
20021Q
20022Q
20023Q
20024Q
20031Q
20032Q
20033Q
20034Q
20041Q
20042Q
20043Q
20044Q
20051Q
20052Q
20053Q
20054Q
20061Q
20062Q
20063Q
20064Q
20071Q
20072Q
20073Q
20074Q
20081Q
20082Q
20083Q
20084Q
20091Q
20092Q
20093Q
20094Q
20101Q
20102Q
20103Q
20104Q
20111Q
20112Q
20113Q
20114Q
20121Q
20122Q
20123Q
20124Q
20131Q
As with residential building, construction of retail buildings is also way down when
compared to historical trends, with practically no construction activity observed
since the end of 2008.
Source: CoStar