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The Atlanta Regional Commission’s “The Quarter” looks at some of the
leading indicators of overall economic health from a non-economist’s
view. It compares Atlanta to other metropolitan areas and looks at the
counties within the region where the data allow. While this is not a
comprehensive look at the local economy, it is a gauge of the general
direction the economy is moving.
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-00
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
ATL US
During the Great Recession (Dec 2007 – June 2009, officially) and immediately afterwards, Atlanta was
performing worse than the nation as a whole when looking at year-over-year employment changes. Since
March of 2012, however, Atlanta has outperformed the nation each month.
Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary. Shaded areas
represent recessions this decade)
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
2,400
2,450
2,500
Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13
Month-by-Month Total Employment (in thousands)
December 2005– March 2013
Overall employment levels are nearing the levels last seen in 2008, but we still have a long way to get
back to pre-recession levels.
Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary)
Professional/Business
Annual Percent Change:
Employment in High-Paying Sectors in Metro Atlanta
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
InformationPercent
Change FinancePercent
Change
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13 Wholesale Trade
Percent
Change
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Percent
Change
Employment in key sectors continues to remain in positive territory, on a year-over-year basis.
Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary)
Total Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Initial unemployment insurance claims are spiky – with spikes usually occurring in January due to
seasonal layoffs after the holidays. But the latest month, March, has the lowest number of claims since
February 2008.
Source:
GA DOL
Monthly Building Permits – Metro Atlanta
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Source: SOCDS
The metro Atlanta housing market is still weak. There were 1,621 residential permits issued in March of
this year. In contrast, there were almost 7,300 residential permits issued in March of 2006.
Total Building Permits Issues – 2013 YTD (Through March)
Top 15 Metros
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Las Vegas
Boston
Philadelphia
Chicago
Orlando
Charlotte
Miami
Atlanta
Phoenix
Los Angeles
Austin
Washington DC
New York
Dallas
Houston
Although permitting activity is WAY off when compared to pre-recession, metro Atlanta still ranks 8th in
the nation in the number of residential permits issued thus far in 2013.
Source: SOCDS
County-By County: Total Building Permits Issued
2011-2013 (Through March)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2011
2012
2013
Most jurisdictions have seen more permitting activity in 2013 than in the previous year (through March).
Fulton County has issued, by far, the most residential permits thus far in 2013.
Source: SOCDS
Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100)
Metro Atlanta: 2000 - Current
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Home prices have rebounded nicely since the beginning of 2012, although the gains have leveled off
somewhat of late. Still, home prices in metro Atlanta continue to trade below January 2000 prices, wiping
out a decade of housing price gains.
Source: Case-Shiller Index
-55.0%
-45.2%
-43.7%
-42.7%
-36.6%
-34.4%
-34.3%
-33.5%
-32.1%
-29.6%
-28.9%
-27.6%
-26.7%
-26.4%
-24.9%
-24.0%
-19.6%
-15.7%
-15.4%
-5.1%
-4.5%
-60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0%
NV-Las Vegas
FL-Miami
AZ-Phoenix
FL-Tampa
MI-Detroit
CA-San Diego
IL-Chicago
CA-Los Angeles
CA-San Francisco
Composite-10
GA-Atlanta
MN-Minneapolis
WA-Seattle
DC-Washington
NY-New York
OR-Portland
OH-Cleveland
MA-Boston
NC-Charlotte
CO-Denver
TX-Dallas
Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100)
Home Price Decline Since Peak
While a 29 percent decline in Atlanta home prices is not good, it is not as bad as the decline in
some other metro areas, particularly in the previously “hot” coastal markets and western
boomtowns.
Source: Case-Shiller Index
Foreclosure Filings (Through March)
2010 – 2013
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
In every county, foreclosures are lower in 2013, thus far, when compared to the same period in
the previous three years.
Source: Equity Depot
Office Vacancy Rate – Metro Atlanta
2000 - current
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20001Q
20002Q
20003Q
20004Q
20011Q
20012Q
20013Q
20014Q
20021Q
20022Q
20023Q
20024Q
20031Q
20032Q
20033Q
20034Q
20041Q
20042Q
20043Q
20044Q
20051Q
20052Q
20053Q
20054Q
20061Q
20062Q
20063Q
20064Q
20071Q
20072Q
20073Q
20074Q
20081Q
20082Q
20083Q
20084Q
20091Q
20092Q
20093Q
20094Q
20101Q
20102Q
20103Q
20104Q
20111Q
20112Q
20113Q
20114Q
20121Q
20122Q
20123Q
20124Q
20131Q
The recession earlier this decade drove up office vacancy rates for the next few years, and
they never returned to their pre‐recession levels. Vacancy rates continue to be higher than the
highest levels experienced during the last recession. However, vacancy is trending slightly downward.
Source: CoStar
(3,000,000)
(2,000,000)
(1,000,000)
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
20001Q
20002Q
20003Q
20004Q
20011Q
20012Q
20013Q
20014Q
20021Q
20022Q
20023Q
20024Q
20031Q
20032Q
20033Q
20034Q
20041Q
20042Q
20043Q
20044Q
20051Q
20052Q
20053Q
20054Q
20061Q
20062Q
20063Q
20064Q
20071Q
20072Q
20073Q
20074Q
20081Q
20082Q
20083Q
20084Q
20091Q
20092Q
20093Q
20094Q
20101Q
20102Q
20103Q
20104Q
20111Q
20112Q
20113Q
20114Q
20121Q
20122Q
20123Q
20124Q
20131Q
Total Net Absorption of Office Space – Metro Atlanta
2000 - current
There have now been eight consecutive quarters with positive net absorption (more occupied office
space at the end of the quarter compared to the beginning). Absorption levels still are significantly
lower than they were pre-recession, however.
Source: CoStar
Number of Retail Buildings Under Construction– Metro Atlanta
2000 - current
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
20001Q
20002Q
20003Q
20004Q
20011Q
20012Q
20013Q
20014Q
20021Q
20022Q
20023Q
20024Q
20031Q
20032Q
20033Q
20034Q
20041Q
20042Q
20043Q
20044Q
20051Q
20052Q
20053Q
20054Q
20061Q
20062Q
20063Q
20064Q
20071Q
20072Q
20073Q
20074Q
20081Q
20082Q
20083Q
20084Q
20091Q
20092Q
20093Q
20094Q
20101Q
20102Q
20103Q
20104Q
20111Q
20112Q
20113Q
20114Q
20121Q
20122Q
20123Q
20124Q
20131Q
As with residential building, construction of retail buildings is also way down when
compared to historical trends, with practically no construction activity observed
since the end of 2008.
Source: CoStar

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Atlanta Regional Commission Economic Indicators Report

  • 1. The Atlanta Regional Commission’s “The Quarter” looks at some of the leading indicators of overall economic health from a non-economist’s view. It compares Atlanta to other metropolitan areas and looks at the counties within the region where the data allow. While this is not a comprehensive look at the local economy, it is a gauge of the general direction the economy is moving.
  • 2. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 ATL US During the Great Recession (Dec 2007 – June 2009, officially) and immediately afterwards, Atlanta was performing worse than the nation as a whole when looking at year-over-year employment changes. Since March of 2012, however, Atlanta has outperformed the nation each month. Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary. Shaded areas represent recessions this decade)
  • 3. 2,100 2,150 2,200 2,250 2,300 2,350 2,400 2,450 2,500 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Month-by-Month Total Employment (in thousands) December 2005– March 2013 Overall employment levels are nearing the levels last seen in 2008, but we still have a long way to get back to pre-recession levels. Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary)
  • 4. Professional/Business Annual Percent Change: Employment in High-Paying Sectors in Metro Atlanta -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 InformationPercent Change FinancePercent Change -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Wholesale Trade Percent Change -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Percent Change Employment in key sectors continues to remain in positive territory, on a year-over-year basis. Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary)
  • 5. Total Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 Initial unemployment insurance claims are spiky – with spikes usually occurring in January due to seasonal layoffs after the holidays. But the latest month, March, has the lowest number of claims since February 2008. Source: GA DOL
  • 6. Monthly Building Permits – Metro Atlanta 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Source: SOCDS The metro Atlanta housing market is still weak. There were 1,621 residential permits issued in March of this year. In contrast, there were almost 7,300 residential permits issued in March of 2006.
  • 7. Total Building Permits Issues – 2013 YTD (Through March) Top 15 Metros 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Las Vegas Boston Philadelphia Chicago Orlando Charlotte Miami Atlanta Phoenix Los Angeles Austin Washington DC New York Dallas Houston Although permitting activity is WAY off when compared to pre-recession, metro Atlanta still ranks 8th in the nation in the number of residential permits issued thus far in 2013. Source: SOCDS
  • 8. County-By County: Total Building Permits Issued 2011-2013 (Through March) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2011 2012 2013 Most jurisdictions have seen more permitting activity in 2013 than in the previous year (through March). Fulton County has issued, by far, the most residential permits thus far in 2013. Source: SOCDS
  • 9. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) Metro Atlanta: 2000 - Current 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Home prices have rebounded nicely since the beginning of 2012, although the gains have leveled off somewhat of late. Still, home prices in metro Atlanta continue to trade below January 2000 prices, wiping out a decade of housing price gains. Source: Case-Shiller Index
  • 10. -55.0% -45.2% -43.7% -42.7% -36.6% -34.4% -34.3% -33.5% -32.1% -29.6% -28.9% -27.6% -26.7% -26.4% -24.9% -24.0% -19.6% -15.7% -15.4% -5.1% -4.5% -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% NV-Las Vegas FL-Miami AZ-Phoenix FL-Tampa MI-Detroit CA-San Diego IL-Chicago CA-Los Angeles CA-San Francisco Composite-10 GA-Atlanta MN-Minneapolis WA-Seattle DC-Washington NY-New York OR-Portland OH-Cleveland MA-Boston NC-Charlotte CO-Denver TX-Dallas Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) Home Price Decline Since Peak While a 29 percent decline in Atlanta home prices is not good, it is not as bad as the decline in some other metro areas, particularly in the previously “hot” coastal markets and western boomtowns. Source: Case-Shiller Index
  • 11. Foreclosure Filings (Through March) 2010 – 2013 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 In every county, foreclosures are lower in 2013, thus far, when compared to the same period in the previous three years. Source: Equity Depot
  • 12. Office Vacancy Rate – Metro Atlanta 2000 - current 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20001Q 20002Q 20003Q 20004Q 20011Q 20012Q 20013Q 20014Q 20021Q 20022Q 20023Q 20024Q 20031Q 20032Q 20033Q 20034Q 20041Q 20042Q 20043Q 20044Q 20051Q 20052Q 20053Q 20054Q 20061Q 20062Q 20063Q 20064Q 20071Q 20072Q 20073Q 20074Q 20081Q 20082Q 20083Q 20084Q 20091Q 20092Q 20093Q 20094Q 20101Q 20102Q 20103Q 20104Q 20111Q 20112Q 20113Q 20114Q 20121Q 20122Q 20123Q 20124Q 20131Q The recession earlier this decade drove up office vacancy rates for the next few years, and they never returned to their pre‐recession levels. Vacancy rates continue to be higher than the highest levels experienced during the last recession. However, vacancy is trending slightly downward. Source: CoStar
  • 13. (3,000,000) (2,000,000) (1,000,000) 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 20001Q 20002Q 20003Q 20004Q 20011Q 20012Q 20013Q 20014Q 20021Q 20022Q 20023Q 20024Q 20031Q 20032Q 20033Q 20034Q 20041Q 20042Q 20043Q 20044Q 20051Q 20052Q 20053Q 20054Q 20061Q 20062Q 20063Q 20064Q 20071Q 20072Q 20073Q 20074Q 20081Q 20082Q 20083Q 20084Q 20091Q 20092Q 20093Q 20094Q 20101Q 20102Q 20103Q 20104Q 20111Q 20112Q 20113Q 20114Q 20121Q 20122Q 20123Q 20124Q 20131Q Total Net Absorption of Office Space – Metro Atlanta 2000 - current There have now been eight consecutive quarters with positive net absorption (more occupied office space at the end of the quarter compared to the beginning). Absorption levels still are significantly lower than they were pre-recession, however. Source: CoStar
  • 14. Number of Retail Buildings Under Construction– Metro Atlanta 2000 - current 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 20001Q 20002Q 20003Q 20004Q 20011Q 20012Q 20013Q 20014Q 20021Q 20022Q 20023Q 20024Q 20031Q 20032Q 20033Q 20034Q 20041Q 20042Q 20043Q 20044Q 20051Q 20052Q 20053Q 20054Q 20061Q 20062Q 20063Q 20064Q 20071Q 20072Q 20073Q 20074Q 20081Q 20082Q 20083Q 20084Q 20091Q 20092Q 20093Q 20094Q 20101Q 20102Q 20103Q 20104Q 20111Q 20112Q 20113Q 20114Q 20121Q 20122Q 20123Q 20124Q 20131Q As with residential building, construction of retail buildings is also way down when compared to historical trends, with practically no construction activity observed since the end of 2008. Source: CoStar