2. 2011 was a year that was marked by
job growth, albeit not at a pace many
had hoped for.
3. 2012 Job market perspectives
Growing gradually
In the first part of the year, high non-farm payroll growth took place in
February, March and April leading many to believe that the job market was
back on the path to robust growth with job additions in the hundreds of
thousands each month. However, by May, the numbers dropped a bit as
concerns began to arise that the United States economy was preparing
for a double-dip recession.
Looking back, we can now see that each month in 2011 something consistently seen throughout 2011, as
was indeed marked by job growth and the nation is evidenced by temporary sector growth of 126,000,
not facing a double-dip recession. While August data from January to November 2011. This method has
initially suggested zero new jobs, it was quickly revised been favored as a way for employers to shape their
the following month to show the addition of 104,000 workforce based on demand and need in a quick
jobs; as of November 2011, job growth has occurred and responsive manner while taking an uneven
during every month of 2011. recovery pattern into account.
We believe that other service providing industries
More significant growth is needed in 2012.
will thrive in the coming year, including business and
Although the economy averaged an addition of professional services, IT and healthcare. We are also
132,000 jobs a month in 2011, there is still a long way optimistic that manufacturing will continue its rebound
to go to account for the seven million jobs lost since from the recession and jobs will be added.
December 2007 — job growth will need to be in the
hundreds of thousands each month in 2012. Adecco’s 2012 Job market perspectives report explores
both the current and future labor market while looking
This can be accomplished, but the government and into the key elements that will continue to impact
private sector will both need to work towards this goal. both the U.S. economy and job market in the next
In the upcoming election year, more elected officials year and beyond. We hope this report will serve as a
will be called upon by their constituents to put political valuable resource to assist you in the optimization of
partisanship aside and get America working, while your organization in a year that will most assuredly be
ensuring that the public sector does not continue to one of transition and growth in the right direction.
lose more jobs; a pattern seen throughout 2011.
In the private sector, employers who have employees
at maximum productivity will need to consider flexible
ways to augment their workforce to allow for growth;
3
4. Key moments in time: 2011
College graduate
Japan hit by mas-
hiring is expected
sive earthquake and
to be higher in 2011
tsunami with ripple
than in recent years
Gain of 68,000 jobs effects felt globally
January March May
February April June
Winter storms lash G
ain of 217,000 jobs Riots break out in
out from Midwest to Greece over austerity
Northeast affecting measures, economic
American’s ability to troubles, and high
work, or find jobs unemployment rates
4
5. 2012 Job market perspectives
President Obama
introduces American
Jobs Act to aid in get-
ting America back to
work and providing tax
cuts; estimated cost of
Act is $447 billion
Government
narrowly avoids
shutdown amidst One year away from
spending debate 2012 presidential
G
ain of 127,000 jobs in Congress election
July September November
August October December
BLS reports a job Occupy Wall Street Seasonal job growth
gain of 0 for the Movement gains paints picture for 2012
month; later revised momentum
to 104,000
5
6. The economy and job market
It’s a global economy — for better and worse. The McKinsey Global Institute, the business and
Globally, the earthquake and subsequent tsunami that economics research arm of the consulting company,
jolted Japan early in 2011 sent a ripple effect through a estimates that for jobs to return to a pre-recession
number of economies as production and manufacturing level with unemployment of 5%, the United States will
came to a slow crawl for a number of months. On the need to create 21 million net new jobs to account for
policy side, European countries like Spain and Greece jobs that have been lost, as well as new entrants into
continued to face record high unemployment rates and the labor force.
political unrest over financial policies. To accomplish this, there are three scenarios that could
While European financial woes and Japanese natural occur: low, medium, or high job growth. Based on this
disasters may not have affected the U.S. economy 20 model, net new job growth would look like:
years ago, the globalization of the world we live in has
led to a magnification of all issues. Just as the United
States is impacted by other countries, other countries Job growth
are equally — if not more — impacted by dips in the
U.S. economy. Number of jobs Jobs created
added a month by 2020
Slowly growing the U.S. job market.
Low 77,000 9.3 million
While 2011 started with robust hiring, normalization
in new hiring was seen in a number of sectors by the Medium 145,000 17.4 million
middle of the year. For the most part, growth was still High 187,000 22.5 million
happening, just at a much slower rate than expected or
needed for job recovery. Source: McKinsey Global Institute “An economy
One of the terms used frequently in the past year was that works: Job creation and America’s Future”
“jobless recovery;” the concept that economic output
As of November 2011, the United States was aver-
would grow, but it would not immediately generate
aging a monthly net new job creation of 132,000
job growth. While some suggest this is taking place, a
throughout the year, largely in part of sizeable
number of months showcasing strong job growth could
month-over-month government job losses.
change this belief.
As President Obama and many economists have For these much needed gains to take place in 2012,
mentioned throughout the year, the possibility for an im- the private sector must add more job seekers to
mediate rebound in jobs is something that isn’t possible payrolls. By doing so, the unemployment rate will
based on the trends seen in the current recession and decrease, and consumer confidence will increase
subsequent recovery time frame — this one will be more — two of the most important elements to rebuilding
drawn out, which is a newer trend occurring in modern the economy at a faster pace.
recessions.
An additional way to spawn growth is through
the creation of new businesses. To help this occur
President Obama has a number of tax incentives
currently in place as well as a number in Act.
6
7. 2012 Job market perspectives
In the last year, the job market experienced quite a few ups
and downs, both globally and nationally.
7
8. The U.S. political climate
Looking back, 2011 will likely be These challenges were underscored by the fact that
the 112th Congress was one clearly marked by political
remembered as a year where the partisanship over all forms of legislation, and particu-
job situation was top of mind for both larly ones relating to budgets and funding. This was
evidenced in September 2011 when last minute nego-
elected officials and their constituents. tiations and agreements between the Republican and
Democratic parties put a temporary end to months of
As the cries from home districts became louder and political jockeying to prevent an imminent government
louder throughout the year, those in Congress as shutdown.
well as President Obama faced greater demands than While job growth continued throughout the year, the
ever to revitalize the job market and get Americans slow pace forced President Obama to take a more
back to work. visible role in much needed job creation. As a result, in
early September, he introduced the American Jobs Act.
8
9. 2012 Job market perspectives
The Act focuses on key areas including tax cuts and The leisure and hospitality, construction and retail
credits to aid and fuel growth in small businesses; sectors account for the largest percent of jobs today,
getting Americans back to work while rebuilding and and will only continue to grow in size within the next
modernizing the nation; training and education oppor- decade or so.
tunities; and payroll tax cuts for middle class America.
However, it received mixed reviews, largely in part of the
$447 billion price tag that accompanied it. The president “ e’re starting to see business grow in
W
has gone on the record making it increasingly clear that
professional skills. Engineering has picked
the act is one of his top priorities and he will work to get
it approved piece by piece if needed. As a result, the
up dramatically. IT is seeing growth.
Republican party is expected to create a piece of rebut- Mortgage-related finance and accounting
tal legislation to encourage job growth. jobs have been strong too, because interest
In 2012, the fever pitch around the impending presidential rates are so low and people are refinancing.”
election will only continue to grow, with the high unem-
Tig Gilliam, Adecco Group North America CEO,
ployment rate and need for jobs being the number one
Wall Street Journal, January 2011
issue on the campaign trail. Government officials will
need to keep in mind that, outside of Washington, D.C.,
the focus should be on getting Main Street back to work
without political partisanship.
The McKinsey Global Institute predicts that, based
Where the job market is growing on its low-, medium- and high-growth situations, health-
care could add between 2.8-5.2 million jobs, business
Throughout the recession and the continuing recovery,
services 2.4-5.7 million and leisure and hospitality
job growth has continued to vary greatly from sector
2.1-3.3 million jobs — numbers that are certainly
to sector.
necessary for getting the economy back on track.
When reviewing net new jobs, a pattern became appar-
If we are to see a higher pace of job growth in 2012,
ent: the jobs were returning in skilled areas, professional
these areas will need to continue to grow to fuel
and business services (which includes legal, accounting,
private sector growth, compensate for government
temporary and consulting jobs), and healthcare. In fact,
sector losses, and encourage a rebound in
healthcare is the one sector that has consistently added
consumer confidence.
jobs throughout even the toughest of times. The industry
added 3.7 million jobs in the 2000-2010 decade even
with two recessions.
9
10. The increased need for education
Throughout the recession — and even more so in the recovery —
there has been a constant dialogue around the need for
American workers to have more education. Each month, when
looking at the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment
situation, the numbers speak for themselves; in November 2011,
the unemployment rate for someone without a high school
diploma is 13.2%, while a college graduate faces a much lower
rate at 4.4%.
10
11. 2012 Job market perspectives
While it seems fairly easy to understand that a college
degree or technical training can boost one’s career
prospects and income, it may be more than most think.
According to the Georgetown University Center on
Education and the Workforce, the range in lifetime
earnings is greatest between high school dropouts and
those with graduate degrees or higher — a range of
$1,198,000 to $4,650,000; a difference of $3,452,000.
In 2012 and beyond, higher education will become a
larger component in the employment story. While highly
educated Americans will see job prospects return, the
McKinsey Global Institute predicts that only in high job
growth circumstances will employment grow significantly
for those with less than a college education.
Additionally, while one could argue that the United
States is producing more college graduates than ever,
McKinsey also predicts that, in a high job growth
situation, the workforce of 2020 will be short 1.5 million
This trend will most certainly lead to a mismatch
college degrees.
between what the overall workforce needs and what
Based on this information, it is more essential than ever skills employees have. However, if higher education
for colleges and universities to partner with the private institutions get involved in the process now, more
sector and truly gauge what students should be learn- students can be exposed to the skills that will be all but
ing. It is expected that colleges will produce a signifi- mandatory in 10 years.
cantly higher amount of graduates in social sciences,
For those in the workforce, now is the time to supple-
liberal arts and business than in math, engineering and
ment existing skills. An example of this is the manufac-
science — some of the sectors that will truly be facing a
turing sector — gone are the days of simply maintaining
deficit in talent.
a spot on the line; today’s manufacturing jobs require
technical knowledge in a wide range of areas.
As we look to the future, the workforce and educational
systems must prepare current and future workers for
the changes in the job market for America to stay
competitive with other countries who are adjusting for
this shift already.
11
12. Where the jobs are:
Situation overview.
Temporary services Throughout 2011, the temporary sector continued
to grow. While the extremely high monthly job
additions in the sector have slowed a bit, the
growth kept up throughout the year and, as of
November, 126,000 jobs were added.
2010-2011 change in workforce:
Temporary jobs have become such an integral
+169,000 jobs part of the recovery as hiring managers turned to
the sector as a quick and easy way to modify their
Number of American workers: workforces as needed. This trend will continue into
2.3 million 2012 as hiring managers may continue to be
cautious around full time permanent hires.
Regions in demand:
Areas in demand.
All Temporary jobs transcend all sectors, but high
demand areas include finance, administrative
support, healthcare, engineering, and information
technology.
Source: BLS
12
13. 2012 Job market perspectives
Where the jobs are:
Situation overview.
Financial services On the whole, the financial services field is expect-
ed to continue growing after a few troublesome
years during the recession. While positions and
skills can vary, all organizations depend on finan-
cial professionals in some way, shape, or form.
2010-2011 change in workforce:
The growth expected for financial analysts in the
-10,000 jobs decade of 2008-2018 is higher than average at
20 percent, and anticipated growth for financial
Unemployment rate: manager positions will be average in growth at 8
6.1 percent percent in the same time frame
Number of American workers: Areas in demand.
The movement towards compliance, financial
7.6 million policies, risk mitigation and financial performance/
optimization will lead the sector in new job growth.
Regions in demand:
Positions in the sector will be competitive on two
Northeast, West fronts: analysts, which tend to have lucrative sala-
ries, will face competition from a larger applicant
pool, while managers will face competition based
on a smaller number of positions available in the
next decade.
Source: BLS
Anticipated sector growth by 2018
3,400,000
3,200,000
3,000,000
2,800,000
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
13
14. Where the jobs are:
Situation overview.
Engineering Talent will continue to be needed in the engineer-
ing sector. While demand will vary based on
specialty, green jobs seem to be on the rise. More
and more, the line between traditional and green
jobs will fade away as organizations look for ways
Unemployment rate based on occupation:
of making projects more eco-friendly
Less than 4.0%-8.0% based Areas in demand.
on occupation While demand does vary by region based on
2010-2011 change in workforce: needs, the sector as a whole is expected to
continue to see an increase in job demands.
+27,500 jobs The specialties seeing the largest increase in
the 2008-2018 decade are biomedical engineering
Number of American workers: (72 percent increase), environmental engineering
(31 percent increase) and civil engineering
1.3 million (24 percent increase).
Regions in demand: Source: BLS and NACE
West, South
“For a lot of our clients, particularly Engineers and engineering technician occupations
(2005-2018)
those in the Pacific Northwest,
it’s becoming increasingly difficult 2,300,000
to separate ‘green’ jobs from
mainstream jobs. As more states
and businesses turn to green 2,100,000
power generation and sustainable
practices, we anticipate that the
need and demand for profession- 1,900,000
als with these skills will only 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
continue to increase.” Source: Georgetown University Center on education and the Workforce
Anticipated Sector Growth by 2018
(source Georgetown University Center on education
and the Workforce)
14
15. 2012 Job market perspectives
Where the jobs are:
Situation overview.
Manufacturing This sector continues to rebound — data
reflective of August 2011 showed that 61 of the
nation’s biggest 100 metropolitan areas gained
manufacturing jobs in the last year. Detroit,
a city hit hard by past sector job losses, emerged
Unemployment rate:
as the metropolitan area that created the most
7.7 percent new manufacturing jobs with Western and
Midwestern cities also adding a large amount
2010-2011 change in workforce: of new positions.
+210,000 jobs Areas in demand.
Gone are the days of employees knowing only
Number of American workers: one role — today’s manufacturing organizations
11.8 million are looking for highly skilled job candidates who
know multiple components to a process. Those
Regions in demand: individuals with well-rounded skills and techno-
logical know-how will be in highest demand.
Midwest, West, South Source: BLS
Situation overview.
Legal services From 2008-2018, numerous jobs within the legal
sector are expected to grow, with the demand for
paralegals expected to increase by 28 percent,
lawyers by 13 percent and legal secretaries by
13 percent.
2010-2011 change in workforce:
-3,100 jobs Areas in demand.
The increase in jobs within the sector will most
Number of American workers: likely come from a variety of sources as more legal
transactions, civil disputes and criminal cases
1.1 million are expected to occur. Within the sector, those
with healthcare, intellectual property, bankruptcy,
Regions in demand: corporate, antitrust security litigation and environ-
Northeast, West mental law will be in highest demand.
Source: BLS
15
16. Where the jobs are:
Situation overview.
Healthcare As a result of an aging population and all the legis-
lative changes associated with healthcare reform,
healthcare is one of the hottest professions — and
we expect growth to continue for years to come.
Unemployment rate: Areas in demand.
5.2 percent According to the BLS, about 26 percent of all new
jobs created in the U.S. economy from now until
2010-2011 change in workforce: 2018 will be in the healthcare and social assis-
tance industry. This industry — which includes pub-
+322,700 jobs lic and private hospitals, nursing and residential
care facilities, and individual and family services
Number of American workers: — is expected to grow by 24 percent, or 4 million
14.2 million new jobs. Employment growth will be driven by an
aging population and longer life expectancies.
Regions in demand: Of the 20 fastest growing occupations in the
economy, half are related to healthcare including
Midwest, West, South home health aides, physician assistants, physical
therapist aides and medical assistants.
Source: BLS
Situation overview.
Information technology As this sector continues to grow rapidly, all positions
are expected to grow faster than average with
computer software programmers being one of the
fastest growing occupations in the 2008-2018 decade.
Unemployment rate:
Areas in demand.
7.4 percent IT is an integral part of both personal and profes-
sional life and the opportunities for growth in this
2010-2011 change in workforce: sector are limitless and wide-ranging. While training
and education may vary by position, those with a
-54,000 jobs background in computer or technical skills will lead
the pack.
Number of American workers:
The BLS predicts that, in the 2008-2018 decade,
2.6 million computer and information systems managers will
see a 17 percent increase in employment, computer
Regions in demand: software engineers will see a 34 percent increase
West, Northeast and computer network, systems, and database ad-
ministrators will see a rate of growth of 30 percent.
Sources: BLS, InformationWeek.com
16
17. 2012 Job market perspectives
Where the jobs are:
Situation overview.
Accounting The BLS is predicting a 16 percent increase
in job openings for accountants by 2016,
which is largely attached to the move towards
increasing financial oversight requirements
such as Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX).
2010-2011 change in workforce:
Demand will also continue to increase in tax and
+43,700 jobs healthcare areas for accountants.
Number of American workers: Areas in demand.
937,000 After the majority of states instituted the 150-hour
rule for Certified Public Accountants, the enroll-
Regions in demand: ment in many accounting programs declined,
boosting the need for CPAs in all areas of accoun-
Northeast, West, Midwest tancy. According to the American Institute for CPAs,
nearly 90 percent of accounting firms reported an
increased hiring of new graduates, indicating that
the need for the public accounting background will
continue into the foreseeable future.
Source: BLS, American Institute of CPAs
17
18. 2011 Job market perspectives
Regional insights
West Northeast
Unemployment rate: Unemployment rate:
10.3 percent as of October 2011 8.1 percent as of October 2011
Hot sectors: Hot sectors:
Technology, professional services, retail Technology, export trade, education,
healthcare, professional services
Strongest metropolitan areas:
San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, Boise, Strongest metropolitan areas:
Boulder, San Diego Boston, rochester, pittsburgh
Midwest South
Unemployment rate: Unemployment rate:
8.5 percent as of October 2011 9.0 percent as of October 2011
Hot sectors: Hot sectors:
Manufacturing, particularly in Transportation, manufacturing
auto-producing manufacturing
Strongest metropolitan areas:
Strongest metropolitan areas: All of Texas’s major cities, Oklahoma City, New
Detroit, Cleveland, Grand Rapids, Orleans, Florida (particularly Miami and Tampa)
Omaha, Lansing
18 Sources: Moody’s Analytics, BLS
19. 2012 Job market perspectives
Moving forward
While 2011 will be remembered as a year of recovery and
cautious optimism in the economy, we predict that 2012
will be one of transition and upward growth.
As we look to the future, American business leaders
and employees are hopeful that policy makers can put
aside partisanship to promote job growth and consumer
confidence — not only for a stronger economy, but for a
stronger nation as well.
19
