What will the Telecoms look like in 2025???

1. Looking towards 2025 …
… what changes could we expect?
… and how will this affect society? TELE2 Presentation
21st September 2012
John Frieslaar
John.frieslaar@huawei.com
Thriving in a Digital Economy? www.huawei.com
Prediction about the future is very difficult, but to some degree the
future is already here; its just not widely distributed as yet; you will
meet it when you have to; just ensure you do not embrace it with the
same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present …
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential

2. The Emerging Telecoms Environment
The Generally agreed vision is that:
• By 2030 our cities will be very clever.
• Our surroundings – buildings, bus stops, bill boards, cars, phones,
maybe even our clothes - will have varying levels of inbuilt
intelligence, sensing, tracking and communications capabilities.
• This level of connectivity and interaction will fundamentally change
how we manage our lives and living spaces – at home, work and play
- and all points in between.
• All of this will change our views of mobility.
• To deliver this vision of the future needs the foundations to be laid now for these future services
• Factories of the Future (FoF)
Economic development
• Energy Efficient Buildings (EeB)
• Green Cars (GCI) Sustainability
• Future Internet (FI) Social inclusion
• Smart health
Education
• Smart transport
• Smart living Public services
• Smart energy Improved R&D
• E-government
NG Products and Services
• Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID
….. the strategic question is are we developing the right strategy? Not just in terms of technology, but also in
considering what will society need? What futures do we have to consider now to lay the correct foundations? ……
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 2

3. Exponential Growth
Driving the next 10 years of Data Growth ...
Gb
20000
18000
84% CAGR
16000
14000
Abundance
12000
10000
8000
6000
34% CAGR
4000
203% expected increase
2000
Crazy Idea in wireless traffic over fixed
line
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Huawei Research 2012 Wireless Fixed
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 3

4. What happens when we massage the numbers?
30000
92% CAGR
25000
20000 230% Difference
in traffic volume 84% CAGR
15000
75% CAGR
10000 Small changes in
user behaviour can
result in big network
34% CAGR
5000 demands
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Wireless 1 Wireless 2 Wireless 3 Fixed
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 4

5. Telecoms and ICT has great potential
Economic development: ICT is a critical element of the knowledge
Growing CO2 Lowering CO2
economy e.g. BIG DATA, E-Gov, e-Education, Smart Cities etc Emissions Emissions
Sustainability: ICT can deliver more sustainable services, distance Effective Efficient Managed
DATA Exploited for Resource Usage
learning, remote working, improved health services and other
services to save and manage scarce resources FOSSIL FUEL
Energy Generation
NON-SUSTAINABLE RENEWABLE
Social inclusion: Universal access to services online will drive a Energy Generation
SUSTAINABLE
more participatory, cohesive society
Education: Developing creativity and skills key to economic growth Data
EDUCATION
Public services: Delivering more effective and efficient public Information
Gov-
services at a lower cost with greater inclusion SERVICES
Knowledge
Improved R&D: Supporting more collaborative models to drive the MEDICAL
Understanding
Internet online Economy
Products and Services: Next Generation services will be extensive, MANUFACTURING
Deepening Pool of TRANSPORT
include high-quality video streaming, enabling visual networking for Knowledge and
Understanding
more effective remote working, advanced e-commerce and remote SHOPPING
ENTRETAINMENT TOURISM
access to powerful cloud computing
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 5

6. Changes expected over the next 10-15 years
Demographic Technological Education
• Global population growth by 2050 • R&D a mainstream focus • A new era in Science and Technology
between 8-9 billion • Digital age comes to maturity • Constant innovation drives the need
• Aging society, with many baby • Cloud based network, Digital for ongoing learning
boomers retiring from workforce economy, M2M, etc. • Life long education through virtual and
• Growth of Urban populations • Technical progress drive the interactive methods
• Multinational societies development of new industries • Increase in visual learning, becoming
• Life influenced by social media • Nanotechnology and Bio-technology fun based
enter mainstream • Rise in digital innovators and small
• More connected users and devices business start-ups
Environmental Societal Global
• Alternative sources of power become • Technology becomes embedded in the • Global population growth by 2050
embedded e.g. Solar power, wind, way we live - Tele-health between 8-9 billion, with increasing life
stream etc. • Service demand for traditional services expectancy
• Sustainable business models drive decrease, while new services emerge • Market turbulence as emerging
new business i.e. Digital billing economies fit into world order
• Growing resources challenge, • Digital or Cyber security remains a big • Emerging economies dominate global
resource management important concern organisations
• Changing consumption patterns • Era of greater responsibility and • Increasing global opportunities and
accountability competition
• Nations compete on Innovation
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 6

7. Important Industry Trends next 5-15 years
Smart GRID, Cities, Metering, Apps, Home etc.
Broadband World with Glocal Content Digital Rights
Government Protection
Deployment of LTE and Small Cell cellular technology
Convergence (HW+SW) virtualisation of computing power, storage &
Public Participation
Services – Semantic web emerges
Services
Seamless connectivity, with open ducts and poles
Access to Internet/Services world goes mobile
More phones and devices than people “Internet of Things” 60bln or
more by 2025
Sensor based technologies and M2M grow, with Track-able data
being a key driver – Video and space aware
Inclusive and directive ‘smart’ government
Partnerships & Locally governed communities
Digital Access
Web evolves into a 3D platform (virtual reality) Content Universality
Services proliferate based on Telecare, eHealth, eGovernment,
eEducation
Reform Security
Social platforms drive consumer growth and behaviour, things added
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 7

8. Is this the blueprint ...
... an intelligent network capable of proactively acting on our needs, following us wherever we go ...
National / Global Vertical
Local Sectors Social
networks as
Security-AAS Storage-AAS Apps-AAS
Internet shop front
embedded
everywhere IAAS PAAS SAAS SAAS
Storage - Routing Hosted solutions
Access solutions Artificial intelligence
Network based SW
personal Internet
Transport your ownComputing
Virtual
personal Personal Portal
Education
Centralised Apps Energy
Health,
access layer...
Sensors & Probes Data Centre's
Internet cloud Health Care
Central updates Energy,
Highly Scalable Cloud environment
Management-AAS Utility Computing Banking Smart Cities
Community SW E-Gov,
Market
Driven
Access independent
Market
Niche
Multi-tenant Client server based
Education ... Education,
Multi-tenant (LLU) Health Life Style
Data aggregation Etc.
Enterprise gradePerformance-AAS Mashups Intelligence-AAS business models
New Statistics-AAS
SoLoMo WWW integration
Open Platform
Innovation
Standard Interfaces
Technology neutral Data Security, Data aggregation
Customer centric Sustainable Data encryption, Data insights
DAAS
Services find
you pervasive, Integrators Operators Service Providers Service Providers Services
media Context and
rich, Location
immersive aware
and
sensory
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 8

9. Connected Devices trending towards 60 Bln Plus
70
White goods (Any)
60 Tools (Network connected tools
of some shape)
Already 20Bln devices Camera/Video Recorder device
50
capable of being
FBB (Fixed BB connection)
connected
Medical Aid (Connected medical
device)
40
Car (Any network connected,
either part-time or always on)
TV (Dedicated set for recieving
30 a video signal)
Smart Meter (Electricity, Gas or
water device)
20 Tablet (iPad or Ultrabook type
device)
iPod (standalone device)
10
These predictions do
Cell Phone (All types)
not account for desktop
PC (either laptop or
0 electronic tagging e.g.
type)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
RFID
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 9

10. The traditional Model Evolving the Model
Voice & SMS Mobile broadband Ultra Broadband
BB Connectivity Digital Economy
Bandwidth & Traffic New Revenues
New Business
B
User Generated Content D
Social Networking
ARPU & Revenue
A C C
Cost
Moderate
performance High-Def Devices
Emerging 3D - Video
Consumer Electronics
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 10

11. What’s it really about ...
What the network needs to be ...
Leadership, Innovation and Profitability
The ecosystem means “partnership” and “co- context
serviceable essential
operation”
functional consumable perceptive
New technologies or enhancements of old are familiar
useful understood inclusive
needed to solve the Wireless dilemma ... LTE may helpful second-nature universal adaptable experimental
efficient
just be a part solution accessible handy accustomed
functional exploitable convenient
Near-field communications, LiFi, advertising, automatic habitual current
sensible perceptive playful
marketing, and social- and location-based
natural usable
open
consistent
beneficial legitimate constructive
practical
applications immediate profitable
ordinary valuable efficient
Software tools that provide stakeholders across
effective inherent
the telco, and even third parties, with better
visibility, both into the internal workings of the
the most transformative and thrilling period in
business and into the wealth of customer data human history ...
that is held therein
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 11

12. Conclusions
The world will rely more on Digital Communications
Services will be driven by Community needs and Security concerns
The growth in data sharing will grow exponentially
The BB telecoms sector is at the heart of adding value to society and all the economic sectors
Partnering and Virtualization is key to savings and growth
ICT can enable a GREENER Digital Economy
…. a coordinated plan is needed to realise the maximum benefits across all our industries
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 12
Page 12

13. THE END
www.huawei.com
Think the unthinkable and unimaginable as the key input to your strategy – Then double these
estimates – Be a conduit to helping people help themselves – John Frieslaar
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential

14. Thank You
www.huawei.com
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Page 14