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MKTG 6650S (Summer 2011)
Section S
Professor Jane-Michele Clark
Voice and Data Networks
June 14th
2011
Ajay Singh
MKTG 6650S
Voice and Data Networks
1
Contents
Executive Summary........................................................................................................................ 3
Overview of Canadian Telecommunication Industry..................................................................... 4
Operators..................................................................................................................................... 5
Communication Equipment vendors........................................................................................... 6
Trends impacting the Voice and Data network industry ................................................................ 6
Customer Habits.......................................................................................................................... 6
M-commerce ............................................................................................................................... 7
Near Field Communication (NFC).............................................................................................. 7
Emergence of Tablets.................................................................................................................. 8
Health Monitoring....................................................................................................................... 8
Growth Sectors................................................................................................................................ 9
Mobile Broadband Opportunity .................................................................................................. 9
LTE........................................................................................................................................ 11
Femto Cells............................................................................................................................ 12
Exponential Growth in Mobile Apps ........................................................................................ 12
Job Creation in Next 5 years......................................................................................................... 13
Declining sectors in the industry................................................................................................... 14
Voice vs. Data ........................................................................................................................... 14
Decline of CDMA based network............................................................................................. 15
Decline of 2G technologies....................................................................................................... 16
Decline in Messaging services of SMS..................................................................................... 16
Job Losses in next 5-10 years ....................................................................................................... 17
Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 18
Appendix A..................................................................................................................................... 0
Appendix 1...................................................................................................................................... 1
Appendix 2...................................................................................................................................... 2
Appendix 3...................................................................................................................................... 3
Appendix 4...................................................................................................................................... 4
Appendix 5...................................................................................................................................... 5
Appendix 6...................................................................................................................................... 5
Appendix 7...................................................................................................................................... 6
Appendix 8...................................................................................................................................... 6
Appendix 9...................................................................................................................................... 7
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Appendix 10.................................................................................................................................... 7
Appendix 11.................................................................................................................................... 8
Appendix 12.................................................................................................................................... 8
Appendix 13.................................................................................................................................... 9
Appendix 14.................................................................................................................................... 9
Appendix 15.................................................................................................................................. 10
Appendix 16.................................................................................................................................. 10
References..................................................................................................................................... 11
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Executive Summary
The Canadian telecommunication services markets had total revenue of $35.9 billion in 2009,
which amounts to 4.4% compound annual growth rate in the period 2005-09. It can be broadly
classified into wireline telecom market and the wireless market. Though, the wireline segment
contributed 58.8% of the total market value but it declined mildly in recent years whereas
wireless segment had displayed fairly strong growth with a CAGR of 11.3 % for the same period
2005-09. This research paper has focused only on the wireless segment of the telecommunication
industry.
There are lot of trends that has impacted the wireless industry mainly the change in consumer
behavior towards adoption of social networking as a part of their normal communication
activities, development of mobile technology related applications and smartphone innovation,
expansion of mobile commerce, location based services, video content and health monitoring.
These trends have created an opportunity in mobile broadband market which is expected to
increase 26-fold between 2010 and 2015 (Cisco estimates). It will also lead to the faster
deployment of next generation high speed wireless networks and spurt in the development of
mobile applications. This will see a job increase in the sector by almost 9.3% from the current
274500 direct, indirect and support jobs.
However, there are certain sectors which will see decline namely voice networks, legacy 2G
technologies, HSPA and LTE networks replacing CDMA and EVDO networks. But, the paper
concludes that the company should invest in the mobile broadband market to expand its services
and data capacity. It should collaborate with other players to establish the ecosystem and acts as
a cornerstone to capture the value from this MBB opportunity.
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Overview of Canadian Telecommunication Industry
The telecommunication services market can be broadly classified into wireline telecom market
and the wireless market. The fixed line telephony market mainly consists of voice telephony,
internet over DSL and other non-voice services like fax. The wireless market consists of mobile
phones, smart phones, tablets, pagers and any other wireless services.
As per Datamonitor estimates, the Canadian telecommunication services markets had a total
revenue of $35.9 billion in 2009, which amounts to 4.4% compound annual growth rate in the
period 2005-09. The growth has reduced in recent years with 2009 account for a growth of only
1.9% (Appendix 1). But, this may also be attributed to the economic downturn in the global
economy. The CAGRs in the other North American markets of US and Mexico in the same
period are 1.1% and 8.3% respectively. The size of Canadian market is only 13.9% of the US
market which had a value of $259 billion in 2009. The Canadian telecommunication market is
expected to grow at CAGR of 4.5% in the next 5 year period of 2009-2014 to reach an estimated
value of $44.8 billion (Appendix 2).
The wireline segment still contributes the majority share of the Canadian telecommunication
services market with total revenue of $21.2 billion which is equivalent to 58.8% of the total
market value. On the other hand, wireless
segment contributed revenue of $14.8 billion
amounting to 41.2% of the total market value. It
may point that the wireline segment may still be
the most lucrative segment but the matter of fact
is that wireline segment had declined mildly
whereas wireless segment had displayed fairly strong growth with a CAGR of 11.3 % for the
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same period 2005-09.But, the growth rate is expected to decline in the next 5 years to an
anticipated CAGR of 9.3%, which is still a healthy rate for developed economy.
The key players in this industry are service providers and communication equipment vendors.
The majority of service providers own and operate the infrastructure of communication
equipments. The wireless service providers also offer mobile handsets and smartphones at
subsidized prices by locking the customers into yearly contracts. There are also MVNO
companies (mobile virtual network operators) who lease access from other network operators
and only concentrate on sales and marketing. The communication equipment vendors can be
both on mobile equipment side or network infrastructure side.
Operators: The major players in the services market are BCE Inc., Telus Corporation and Rogers
Communications Inc. There are some new entrants specifically in the wireless segment like
Globalive, Quebecor and Sasktel. In the recent spectrum auction, Globalive (Wind Mobile) bid
the second highest overall to obtain a 10MHz footprint in Toronto (Appendix 3). BCE is the
largest Canadian communication company and operates across 3 segments as Bell wireline, Bell
wireless and Bell Alliant. The focus of Bell Alliant is in the Atlantic Provinces and rural Ontario
and Quebec. Telus operates in wireline, wireless and media services whereas Rogers has a
presence in wireless, media and cable business. So, the three big players have presence in most
of the facets of the telecommunication services but they have different proportion of revenue
from wireline and wireless services as shown below:
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Communication Equipment vendors: The major players on the network equipment side are
Cisco, Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia-Siemens and Huawei. Most of these big vendors have
R&D operations in Canada with Ericsson has R&D labs in Montreal, ALU in Ottawa and
Huawei in Markham. The equipment market is facing deceleration in the recent years due to
economic meltdown but it is expected to recover in 2011 due to the anticipated upgradation of
the network by the service operators. The user equipment (UE) manufacturers include RIM,
Apple, Nokia and Samsung among others. The UE vendors are competing on differentiation by
providing better services and user interface.
Trends impacting the Voice and Data network industry1
Customer Habits: Canadians are turning more to the internet than traditional consumer
electronics for their entertainment, news and communications needs. As a result, there is a trend
that Canadian households possess more broadband enabled computers whose penetration have
increased from just over 50% in 2005 to 75.4% in 2009. Another interesting trend is the fact that
growing number of Canadians are spending more time on social networks, with facebook being
the most popular. As per eMarketer report (2010), about 15.1 million Canadians have visited
social networking sites at least monthly and it is going to increase to 18.4 million Canadians by
2014. In fact the Canadians, under the age of 30, have adopted social networking as a part of
their normal communication activities. This shift in the consumer behavior is also due to the
mobile technology changes that have brought the ability to communicate using different apps
through their feature rich smart phones. The other demographics including baby boomers and
seniors are also spending more time on internet enabled devices for emails and finding
1
This research paper will now focus only on the wireless segment of the telecommunication industry
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information on weather conditions, travel, health and news (as per Statistics Canada report).
These changes are causing an instantaneous spurt in the data usage per subscriber.
M-commerce: As per the recent study from Statistics Canada, Mobile Commerce: New
Experiences and Emerging Consumer Issues, there is an indication of expansion in mobile
commerce due to smartphone innovations, lower-priced data plans and high throughput wireless
networks like HSPA+. It estimated that mobile commerce can exponentially take-off due to
network effect and development of ecosystem of users and suppliers. The various categories in
mobile commerce includes mobile banking and payments, mobile marketing, location based
services and mobile shopping. CIBC was the first major bank to offer m-commerce application
for Apple’s iPhone and BlackBerry platform. It was soon followed by other banks including
RBC, TD and Scotiabank. The application gives the capability to do bill payments, fund transfer
and manage account information. Mobile marketing is also gaining momentum as it allows the
brand to interact more personally with its consumers. Though, m-commerce market is still small
in Canada but it is expected to gain consumer acceptance and follow the same growth trend as in
US. As per the industry journal Internet Retailer, 5% of the top 500 internet retailers in US have
customized m-commerce sites for smartphones. This trend is also expected to manifest itself in
the Canadian market so that the consumers can take the advantage of flexibility and convenience
provided by m-commerce applications on smartphones.
Near Field Communication (NFC): The NFC chips in the smartphone will enable secure
transactions including mobile payment, banking and loyalty cards. NFC chips have been used by
Google Wallet in Android phones by Sprint. MasterCard is already working to deploy its
PayPass readers in thousands of stores across USA. The iPhone 5 is also rumored to have NFC
chips and so will be most of new BlackBerry’s, as per RIM CEO, Jim Balsille.
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Emergence of Tablets: The launch of iPad by Apple has created a new category of devices. It
was followed by launch of tablets from slew of vendors like Motorola’s Xoom, RIM’s PlayBook
and Samsung’s Galaxy tab. The dawn of this new paradigm in the internet enabled devices will
surely have an impact on the wireless networks.
Increasing Video Content: Video has become the No.1 source of data traffic. As per Cisco, there
are three waves of video which is being influenced by changing consumer behavior and social
networking phenomenon. The first wave is the consumption of video over the internet on the PCs
where website YouTube alone streams
around 6 petabytes of data every month. It is
an incredible increase comparing the entire
internet backbone traffic was just 25
petabytes in 2000. The second and third
wave is the consumption of the internet
video on TVs and mobile devices. Mobile
data, video in particular, can be extremely
bandwidth hungry where an iPhone can generate as much traffic as 30 basic feature phones.
Health Monitoring: There is a convergence of mobile communication with health care sector
where mobile devices will be used to transmit the health information to servers maintained by
individuals or health care providers for analysis. This information can then be used for remote
patient monitoring and electronic care record system for patients. In Canada, there is already an
increasing collaboration between wireless service providers like Telus and government funded
eHealth to bring services such as mobile personal health records and tools.
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Growth Sectors
The Canadian wireless telecommunication market has experienced a double digit growth in
recent years and expected to record CAGR of 9.3% for the five year period 2009-14 (Appendix
4). The wireless subscribers are also expected to increase from current 24.4 million to 30.4
million by 2014, an increase of 24.5% since 2010. The
Canadian penetration is still lagging by 27 points from
USA and thus expected to catch up in future. In that
sense, there is still considerable scope for growth in
Canadian wireless market.
Mobile Broadband Opportunity: Globally, mobile data traffic remains a small proportion of the
fixed line data traffic. But, it is in no way undermining the capability of the mobile broadband
which is expected to explode under the influence of plethora of bandwidth hungry internet
capable mobile devices like smartphones, tablets and netbooks which can run a wide range of
data applications. As per Gartner estimates, the smartphones will exceed the number of PCs by
2013 and mobile devices will become dominant internet access device.
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Mobile Broadband will follow the same trend as mobile voice which has overtaken the fixed
telephone line for voice in 2001 (Appendix 5). The technological advancements in the areas of
nanotechnology, memory, processing power and battery power to weight
ratio have enabled the mobile devices to match user expectations in terms of
their home or office internet experience. The resulting innovation and
advancement has significantly increased the MBB2
subscriptions where it is
expected to reach almost 5 billion by 2016. The rapid adoption of MBB
already has a dramatic impact on the mobile networks (Appendix 6):
AT&T has seen more than 200% increase in total MBB usage in 209 itself
T-Mobile USA has reported that data-centric smartphone users consume 50 times more data
than voice centric users.
Verizon wireless reported more than doubling of data traffic every year
Vodafone, UK reported 10-fold increase in data traffic in 12 months
The unexpected increase in the data traffic has caused network congestion and requirement to
increase the network capacity to meet the ever increasing demand for data services. As per Cisco
estimated, the global mobile data traffic will exceed 1000 petabytes per month by 2012, a
thousand-fold increase in just 7 years.
New Wireless Networks for spectral efficiency: The
mobile broadband subscriptions have already overtaken
fixed line subscriptions in 2010 and are projected to
reach around 2B in 2013 (Appendix 7). It is the data
2
Mobile Broadband
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challenge for the operators who are experiencing 10-fold increase in data traffic but only 10%
increase in data revenue. The traffic for mobile voice has followed the revenue curve but it may
not guarantee the similar success for data services as revenue and traffic is more decoupled. So,
the challenge for operators is to increase the capacity in a financially viable manner. It provides
the opportunity for the deployment of new wireless technologies with increasing spectral
efficiency and higher peak data rates. There are various evolution paths for EDGE, HSPA, EV-
DO and WiMAX (Appendix 8) but technologies of interest would only be HSPA+ and LTE.
HSPA+: It refers to enhanced HSPA network which is already
being deployed by Bell, Telus and Rogers in Canada and T-Mobile
in US. It is being touted as network differentiator by the carriers
with peak downlink throughput of 28Mbps in Rel. 7 HSPA+. As
per Ericsson estimates, HSPA and LTE networks will contribute to
85% of subscription by 2016. In the 2009-2014 time periods, HSPA family networks will be the
mobile broadband leader with almost 1.7B subscriptions (Appendix 9).Operators in Canada will
continue to upgrade their existing CDMA and 3G networks in urban and sub-urban areas to
HSPA+ technology. The given technology will also provide an upgrade path to LTE and enables
voice over HSPA which can substantially free up spectrum for data (Appendix 10).
LTE: LTE networks are gaining ground as it is designed for significantly higher level of
capability and performance. This technology addresses the shift from voice to data by lowering
the cost of data delivery. Moreover, it is being used by the carriers as a means to differentiate
from other as this technology being truly 4th
generation. The big three Canadian operators are
looking for LTE deployment in some of the largest urban centers by late 2011 and early 2012.
The early LTE connectivity could only be for data modem cards as voice over LTE still remains
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nascent. There are already 20 commercial LTE networks in 14 countries including Verizon
Wireless in USA (Appendix 11) with 208 operators investing in LTE (GSA-May 11, 2011). But,
the real growth in the deployment of this technology may take another 2-3 years in Canada,
which is also in line with global LTE roadmap (Appendix 12).
Femto Cells: The lack of spectrum to address the data traffic requirements and coverage issues
can be addressed by femtocell architecture. It will not only provide indoor coverage but also help
to offload traffic onto the fixed networks through subscriber’s broadband connection. It is
increasingly being favored by operators to increase network capacity and user satisfaction as
users can be served at near peak data rates. Canadian operators are already looking at femtocell
solution for hotspot deployment and user’s broadband connection (Appendix 13).
Exponential Growth in Mobile Apps: The mobile data traffic usage is greatly influenced by App
Store concept introduced by Apple in July 2008 with the launch of iPhone. It was followed by
other mobile phone vendors like Android market from Google and App World from RIM
(Appendix 14). These app stores give the ability to 3rd
party developers to create application for
the particular mobile platforms and thus lead to the development of ecosystem. According to
AdMob, iPhone users spend over $9 per month on purchase of apps. The apps download are
increasing at a fanatic pace surpassing 10bn downloads with $5 bn revenue in 2010.
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Many Operators are joining this bandwagon of opening their own app stores so that they can
foster their own ecosystems which can optimally leverage the device and network capabilities.
Moreover, carriers don’t want to become a dumb transmission pipes for all these innovative
services and capture the upside of this new business. There is already an operator-led effort to
form Wholesale Application Community (WAC), a global cross platform app store for multiple
devices and operating systems. Rogers and Bell are part of this global initiative.
Job Creation in Next 5 years
As per OVUM consulting report, the Canadian wireless telecommunication industry created
274500 direct, support and indirect jobs (Appendix 15). So, jobs in the sector should increase at a
compound annual growth rate of 9.3% which is same as the growth rate of the Canadian wireless
telecommunication market. Wireless operators contribute to the lion’s share of the jobs in the
sector. The recent entry of new players like Wind Mobile in Toronto and Videotron in Quebec
will open new jobs in the wireless segment in next few years.
The smartphone market is in a high growth stage and expected to grow at a CAGR of 36% in the
period 2011-2015. So, it will create more jobs in Research In Motion and other related
companies. The growth in mobile broadband and M2M cloud platforms will also lead the growth
in jobs for Sierra wireless and other mobile computing companies.
The wireless infrastructure vendor providers will benefit from the deployment of HSPA+ and
LTE networks by Bell, Telus, Rogers and other regional providers. Ericsson’s Montreal R&D
centre, company’s largest outside of Sweden, can be beneficiary of this trend. Ericsson supplies
network equipments to Rogers and AT&T. Nokia Siemens Network and Huawei can lead to new
job creations due to their contract to supply HSPA+ network to Bell and Telus.
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Some other prospective job categories in this domain will be:
High speed backhaul to support growth in data traffic will require extensive investment in
optical fibers at both metro and regional level
Modernization of core network to an all-IP core. Some of the old operators like Bell have to
completely change their interfaces across the core network.
RF planning for the extensive deployment of the new HSPA and LTE networks
Mobile App developers
Declining sectors in the industry
Voice vs. Data: Mobile data traffic has over taken mobile voice traffic around 2011 in North
America. Voice has been the driving force for the design and deployment of the mobile networks
starting from 2G but the future networks of HSPA+ and LTE are designed around data traffic.
LTE has no dedicated CS call and voice will be carried in packets as data traffic. Voice has been
the mainstay of revenue for mobile networks in recent years but it is expected to decline in next 5
years and will be compensated by increased demand in mobile broadband both globally as well
as Canadian market as below:
The declining trend of the voice revenue is already visible in the Q1 results of BCE Inc.
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Decline of CDMA based network: CDMA technology has 10.3% of the global technology share
with North America constituting the 29.4% of the CDMA subscribers worldwide3
. Bell, Telus,
Sasktel and MTS Mobility have deployed CDMA networks in Canada. But, the cellular
technology evolution has different paths for CDMA based family and 3GPP standards (Appendix
16). The selection of LTE as the choice for the 4th
generation technology by majority of carriers
worldwide and CDMA based Verizon Wireless in US has tilted the balance towards 3GPP
technologies in North America. Moreover, the WCDMA/HSPA technologies provide an easier
migration path to LTE as compared to CDMA technologies. It already has an impact on
Canadian wireless landscape where Bell and Telus have chosen HSPA network as their next
generation wireless technology. It has put CDMA’s evolution path in question in Canada as two
technologies are quite incompatible and it may be difficult to support both of them. Bell and
Telus have already spent over $1 billion overlaying the HSPA network and the new player Wind
Mobile is also offering HSPA/WCDMA network. In this regard, CDMA network and subscribes
will continue to decrease in Canadian wireless landscape.
3
Reported by CDMA Development Group, December 2010
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Decline of 2G technologies: The 2nd
generation GSM technology has over 80%4
of the global
market share and is being used by Rogers in Canada. The subsequent advancements in the 2G
technology are brought by GPRS and EDGE, which has added data networks to the
predominantly voice centric GSM technology. There is a further evolution path of Evolved
EDGE with downlink peak data rates of 1.89 Mbps. But, HSPA networks are marching over the
existing 2G networks and choice for new players like Wind Mobile, Mobilicity and Videotron
are also UMTS/HSPA networks. In this regard, 2G based networks and subscribers will continue
to decline and it may only be used in rural areas.
Decline of WiMAX technology: WiMAX is one of the candidates for the 4G technology but its
utility has been limited due to lack of interoperability with
other cellular technologies. The main proponent of mobile
WiMAX is Sprint Nextel and Clearwire in USA. The
technology has some footprints in Canada also with Craig
wireless, Primus and Sogetel Inc. among others. But,
WiMAX adoption will decline in future and being only
offered as low-cost alternative for limited mobility
broadband services.
Decline in Messaging services of SMS: The emergence of mobile broadband and instant
messaging applications like BBM (BlackBerry Messenger) will limit the utility of legacy
messaging services like SMS. The spread of HSPA and LTE networks will further move the
traffic from SMS services where messaging will be made more content rich with video as in
FaceTime chatting application from Apple.
4
Source: GSMA
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Job Losses in next 5-10 years
The demand for skilled wireless telecommunication specialists is very high in mobile broadband
and advanced network area. However, there are certain areas which are seeing stagnation and
will lose jobs in the coming years. The change in the consumer behavior has led to the explosive
growth of mobile broadband which is expected to increase 26-fold between 2010 and 20155
but
voice traffic is expected to drop significantly in next 5-10 years. So, the jobs will be lost in the
circuit-switched core network side. These losses will be both at operator as well as network
vendor side6
.
Other significant area of job losses will be the people directly or indirectly employed in the
maintenance and operation of CDMA based networks. Major Canadian Operators including Bell
and Telus are moving to HSPA and LTE networks and it may result in winding down of their
CDMA and EVDO networks in future. It will cause job losses in the operators as well as
Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent who are the major vendors for CDMA infrastructure in Canada.
Similarly, the emergence of 3G networks will lead to winding down of the GSM/GPRS/EDGE
networks in the Canadian cities and sub-urban areas. It will also cause job losses at network
operators, equipment suppliers and supplier of support services.
Proprietary protocols developed for M2M services will be overtaken by standardized protocols
developed by big companies like Google Wallet by Google in collaboration with MasterCard.
Similarly, server based mobile services hosted by 3rd
party companies will be replaced by cloud
based services hosted by software giants like Microsoft, Apple and Google. It will lead to job
losses for smaller players in the given sector.
5
Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2010-12
6
In the real world scenario, the research paper would have forecasted the number of losses but the required data
is not readily available
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Conclusion
Canadian wireless industry is a growing sector and its revenue of $16.9 billion constitutes the
largest component (41%) of the total telecommunication revenues7
. The sector is expected to
grow at a CAGR of 9.3% in the five year period of 2009-14. The mobile phone penetration in
Canada is still 79% and is expected to rise to 93.5% by 20208
. Another significant trend is the
conversion of feature phone users into smartphone users leading to explosive growth of mobile
broadband market. It is an extremely important growth segment as Tablets, smartphones and
netbooks has higher ARPU9
. The MBB is becoming the number 1 service category in terms of
traffic generated on the mobile networks whereas mobile voice traffic will remain limited in
comparison in future. It is recommended that the company should invest in the mobile broadband
market to expand its services and data capacity.
The winning mobile broadband strategy will be availability of high-end and mass market
smartphone devices, service differentiation with pricing based on quality of service and next
generation HSPA+ and LTE networks. The company needs to ensure good wireless coverage,
higher capacity to support video streaming and other bandwidth hungry applications, optimized
smartphones for efficient data transfer and better user experience as well as higher perceived
speed and low latency in the wireless networks. Since the value chain of wireless industry is very
large consisting of carriers, mobile and network equipment vendors, HW and component
supplier, content and application providers, it is imperative for the company to develop the right
ecosystem where value can be shared and increased due to the networking effect. The company
has to work as a cornerstone to nurture and flourish this ecosystem.
7
Source: Canadian Wireless Telecommunication Association
8
Source: National Statistic, Euromonitor International
9
Average Revenue per user
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Appendix A
Political
Canadian governement in the form of Canadian Radio Television and Telecommunications Commission is the
spectrum management organization; sole supplier of bandwidth and licenses. The wireless industry is very
regulated with the oligopoly of big three operators. But In 2008, Canadian government auctioned AWS
spectrum for $4.26 billion with some spectrun blocks reserved for new entrants only. Gobalive was able to win
10MHz spectrum in Toronto whereas Quebecor has won the similar spectrum in Montreal. The further opening
up of this sector by the governement can have have many ramification for the industry.
Economic
The recent global economic recession has also slowed down the growth of canadian wireless sector. It can
play an important rols as it deters carriers from investing in capaital expenditures required for high-spped
networks, better coverage and services. The weakness in economy will continue to adversely impact customer
demand and supplier bases in 2010. The improvement in the economy in 2011-12 time frame will be the right
boost required in the industry with recent announcements about launch of LTE networks in late 2011 or early
2012.
Social
Growing number of Canadians are spending more time on social networks, with facebook being the most
popular. As per eMarketer report (2010), about 15.1 million Canadians have visited social networking sites at
least monthly and it is going to increase to 18.4 million Canadians by 2014. In fact the Canadians, under the
age of 30, have adopted social networking as a part of their normal communication activities. This shift in the
consumer behavior is also due to the mobile technology changes that have brought the ability to communicate
using different apps through their feature rich smart phones.
Technological
The technological advancements in areas such as processing power, nanotechnology and storage capacity has
enabled true ubiquitous mobile access with next-generaation advanced wireless networks with peak downlink
data rates as high as 150 Mbps. It has led to innovative mobile services like health monitoring, location based
services, M-commerce, M-education, M-government and mobile entertainment.
Legal
Government legislation in the wireless sector can significantly increase the barriers to entry by setting rules
and regulation related to infrastructure, distribution channels and networks. Domestic regulations can also be
a discouraging factor for new entrants where it can even legally forbid certain parties to enter the sector as in
the case of Chinese equipment vendors like Huawei and ZTE who are not able to compete for US tenders
Environmental
Canadian geography is very sparsely populated except for some major cities. The population density is only 4
people per sq. km as compared to Europe who have 70 people per sq. km or US with 30 people per sq. km. It
generally translates into higher capital expenditure for the operators.
The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) has recently cautioned that electromagnetic radiations
generated by cellphones and other wireless communication devices can possibly be carcinogenic to humans. It
has just been cautioned as possible link and not a proven one between wireless devices and cancer. But, this
study can have long reaching effect on the industry.
PESTLE Analysis: Canadian Wireless Telecommunication Sector
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Appendix 1
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 3
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Appendix 4
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Appendix 5
Appendix 6
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Appendix 7
Appendix 8
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Appendix 9
Appendix 10
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Appendix 11
Appendix 12
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Appendix 13
Appendix 14
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Appendix 15
Appendix 16
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References
BCE Inc., Morgan Stanley Report, May 2011
BCE Inc., Company Profile, Datamonitor, December 2010
Consumer Lifestyles in Canada, Euromonitor International, February 2011
HSPA+ Understanding the Benefits, GSMA, February 2010
Internet Access in Canada, Datamonitor, February 2010
The 4G LTE Guide, LTE Portal, May 2011
The Benefits of the Wireless Telecommunication Industry to the Canadian Economy, April 2010
Monetising Mobile Boradband Through Services and applications, GSMA, May 2011
Mobile Phones in Canada, Datamonitor, October 2010
Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020, a report by the UMTS forum, 2011
Mobile Broadband Evolution: the roadmap from HSPA to LTE, A white paper from UMTS forum,
February 2009
Networking Equipment in Canada, Datamonitor, May 2010
Recognizing the Promise of Mobile Broadband, A white paper from UMTS forum, July 2010
Rogers Communications, Investor fact sheet 4Q10
Solving Spectrum Gridlock: Reforms to Liberalize Radio Spectrum Management in Canada in the Face
of Growing Scarcity, C.D. Howe Institute, May 2010
The Arvani Report, Arvani Group, February 2011
Telecommunication Services in Canada, Datamonitor, September 2010
Telus Corporation, Company Profile, December 2010
Wireless Telecommunication Services in Canada, Datamonitor, September 2010
Wireless Telecommunication Services in United States, Datamonitor, September 2010

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Canadian Telecommunication Industry: Voice and data networks

  • 1. MKTG 6650S (Summer 2011) Section S Professor Jane-Michele Clark Voice and Data Networks June 14th 2011 Ajay Singh
  • 2. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 1 Contents Executive Summary........................................................................................................................ 3 Overview of Canadian Telecommunication Industry..................................................................... 4 Operators..................................................................................................................................... 5 Communication Equipment vendors........................................................................................... 6 Trends impacting the Voice and Data network industry ................................................................ 6 Customer Habits.......................................................................................................................... 6 M-commerce ............................................................................................................................... 7 Near Field Communication (NFC).............................................................................................. 7 Emergence of Tablets.................................................................................................................. 8 Health Monitoring....................................................................................................................... 8 Growth Sectors................................................................................................................................ 9 Mobile Broadband Opportunity .................................................................................................. 9 LTE........................................................................................................................................ 11 Femto Cells............................................................................................................................ 12 Exponential Growth in Mobile Apps ........................................................................................ 12 Job Creation in Next 5 years......................................................................................................... 13 Declining sectors in the industry................................................................................................... 14 Voice vs. Data ........................................................................................................................... 14 Decline of CDMA based network............................................................................................. 15 Decline of 2G technologies....................................................................................................... 16 Decline in Messaging services of SMS..................................................................................... 16 Job Losses in next 5-10 years ....................................................................................................... 17 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 18 Appendix A..................................................................................................................................... 0 Appendix 1...................................................................................................................................... 1 Appendix 2...................................................................................................................................... 2 Appendix 3...................................................................................................................................... 3 Appendix 4...................................................................................................................................... 4 Appendix 5...................................................................................................................................... 5 Appendix 6...................................................................................................................................... 5 Appendix 7...................................................................................................................................... 6 Appendix 8...................................................................................................................................... 6 Appendix 9...................................................................................................................................... 7
  • 3. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 2 Appendix 10.................................................................................................................................... 7 Appendix 11.................................................................................................................................... 8 Appendix 12.................................................................................................................................... 8 Appendix 13.................................................................................................................................... 9 Appendix 14.................................................................................................................................... 9 Appendix 15.................................................................................................................................. 10 Appendix 16.................................................................................................................................. 10 References..................................................................................................................................... 11
  • 4. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 3 Executive Summary The Canadian telecommunication services markets had total revenue of $35.9 billion in 2009, which amounts to 4.4% compound annual growth rate in the period 2005-09. It can be broadly classified into wireline telecom market and the wireless market. Though, the wireline segment contributed 58.8% of the total market value but it declined mildly in recent years whereas wireless segment had displayed fairly strong growth with a CAGR of 11.3 % for the same period 2005-09. This research paper has focused only on the wireless segment of the telecommunication industry. There are lot of trends that has impacted the wireless industry mainly the change in consumer behavior towards adoption of social networking as a part of their normal communication activities, development of mobile technology related applications and smartphone innovation, expansion of mobile commerce, location based services, video content and health monitoring. These trends have created an opportunity in mobile broadband market which is expected to increase 26-fold between 2010 and 2015 (Cisco estimates). It will also lead to the faster deployment of next generation high speed wireless networks and spurt in the development of mobile applications. This will see a job increase in the sector by almost 9.3% from the current 274500 direct, indirect and support jobs. However, there are certain sectors which will see decline namely voice networks, legacy 2G technologies, HSPA and LTE networks replacing CDMA and EVDO networks. But, the paper concludes that the company should invest in the mobile broadband market to expand its services and data capacity. It should collaborate with other players to establish the ecosystem and acts as a cornerstone to capture the value from this MBB opportunity.
  • 5. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 4 Overview of Canadian Telecommunication Industry The telecommunication services market can be broadly classified into wireline telecom market and the wireless market. The fixed line telephony market mainly consists of voice telephony, internet over DSL and other non-voice services like fax. The wireless market consists of mobile phones, smart phones, tablets, pagers and any other wireless services. As per Datamonitor estimates, the Canadian telecommunication services markets had a total revenue of $35.9 billion in 2009, which amounts to 4.4% compound annual growth rate in the period 2005-09. The growth has reduced in recent years with 2009 account for a growth of only 1.9% (Appendix 1). But, this may also be attributed to the economic downturn in the global economy. The CAGRs in the other North American markets of US and Mexico in the same period are 1.1% and 8.3% respectively. The size of Canadian market is only 13.9% of the US market which had a value of $259 billion in 2009. The Canadian telecommunication market is expected to grow at CAGR of 4.5% in the next 5 year period of 2009-2014 to reach an estimated value of $44.8 billion (Appendix 2). The wireline segment still contributes the majority share of the Canadian telecommunication services market with total revenue of $21.2 billion which is equivalent to 58.8% of the total market value. On the other hand, wireless segment contributed revenue of $14.8 billion amounting to 41.2% of the total market value. It may point that the wireline segment may still be the most lucrative segment but the matter of fact is that wireline segment had declined mildly whereas wireless segment had displayed fairly strong growth with a CAGR of 11.3 % for the
  • 6. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 5 same period 2005-09.But, the growth rate is expected to decline in the next 5 years to an anticipated CAGR of 9.3%, which is still a healthy rate for developed economy. The key players in this industry are service providers and communication equipment vendors. The majority of service providers own and operate the infrastructure of communication equipments. The wireless service providers also offer mobile handsets and smartphones at subsidized prices by locking the customers into yearly contracts. There are also MVNO companies (mobile virtual network operators) who lease access from other network operators and only concentrate on sales and marketing. The communication equipment vendors can be both on mobile equipment side or network infrastructure side. Operators: The major players in the services market are BCE Inc., Telus Corporation and Rogers Communications Inc. There are some new entrants specifically in the wireless segment like Globalive, Quebecor and Sasktel. In the recent spectrum auction, Globalive (Wind Mobile) bid the second highest overall to obtain a 10MHz footprint in Toronto (Appendix 3). BCE is the largest Canadian communication company and operates across 3 segments as Bell wireline, Bell wireless and Bell Alliant. The focus of Bell Alliant is in the Atlantic Provinces and rural Ontario and Quebec. Telus operates in wireline, wireless and media services whereas Rogers has a presence in wireless, media and cable business. So, the three big players have presence in most of the facets of the telecommunication services but they have different proportion of revenue from wireline and wireless services as shown below:
  • 7. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 6 Communication Equipment vendors: The major players on the network equipment side are Cisco, Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia-Siemens and Huawei. Most of these big vendors have R&D operations in Canada with Ericsson has R&D labs in Montreal, ALU in Ottawa and Huawei in Markham. The equipment market is facing deceleration in the recent years due to economic meltdown but it is expected to recover in 2011 due to the anticipated upgradation of the network by the service operators. The user equipment (UE) manufacturers include RIM, Apple, Nokia and Samsung among others. The UE vendors are competing on differentiation by providing better services and user interface. Trends impacting the Voice and Data network industry1 Customer Habits: Canadians are turning more to the internet than traditional consumer electronics for their entertainment, news and communications needs. As a result, there is a trend that Canadian households possess more broadband enabled computers whose penetration have increased from just over 50% in 2005 to 75.4% in 2009. Another interesting trend is the fact that growing number of Canadians are spending more time on social networks, with facebook being the most popular. As per eMarketer report (2010), about 15.1 million Canadians have visited social networking sites at least monthly and it is going to increase to 18.4 million Canadians by 2014. In fact the Canadians, under the age of 30, have adopted social networking as a part of their normal communication activities. This shift in the consumer behavior is also due to the mobile technology changes that have brought the ability to communicate using different apps through their feature rich smart phones. The other demographics including baby boomers and seniors are also spending more time on internet enabled devices for emails and finding 1 This research paper will now focus only on the wireless segment of the telecommunication industry
  • 8. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 7 information on weather conditions, travel, health and news (as per Statistics Canada report). These changes are causing an instantaneous spurt in the data usage per subscriber. M-commerce: As per the recent study from Statistics Canada, Mobile Commerce: New Experiences and Emerging Consumer Issues, there is an indication of expansion in mobile commerce due to smartphone innovations, lower-priced data plans and high throughput wireless networks like HSPA+. It estimated that mobile commerce can exponentially take-off due to network effect and development of ecosystem of users and suppliers. The various categories in mobile commerce includes mobile banking and payments, mobile marketing, location based services and mobile shopping. CIBC was the first major bank to offer m-commerce application for Apple’s iPhone and BlackBerry platform. It was soon followed by other banks including RBC, TD and Scotiabank. The application gives the capability to do bill payments, fund transfer and manage account information. Mobile marketing is also gaining momentum as it allows the brand to interact more personally with its consumers. Though, m-commerce market is still small in Canada but it is expected to gain consumer acceptance and follow the same growth trend as in US. As per the industry journal Internet Retailer, 5% of the top 500 internet retailers in US have customized m-commerce sites for smartphones. This trend is also expected to manifest itself in the Canadian market so that the consumers can take the advantage of flexibility and convenience provided by m-commerce applications on smartphones. Near Field Communication (NFC): The NFC chips in the smartphone will enable secure transactions including mobile payment, banking and loyalty cards. NFC chips have been used by Google Wallet in Android phones by Sprint. MasterCard is already working to deploy its PayPass readers in thousands of stores across USA. The iPhone 5 is also rumored to have NFC chips and so will be most of new BlackBerry’s, as per RIM CEO, Jim Balsille.
  • 9. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 8 Emergence of Tablets: The launch of iPad by Apple has created a new category of devices. It was followed by launch of tablets from slew of vendors like Motorola’s Xoom, RIM’s PlayBook and Samsung’s Galaxy tab. The dawn of this new paradigm in the internet enabled devices will surely have an impact on the wireless networks. Increasing Video Content: Video has become the No.1 source of data traffic. As per Cisco, there are three waves of video which is being influenced by changing consumer behavior and social networking phenomenon. The first wave is the consumption of video over the internet on the PCs where website YouTube alone streams around 6 petabytes of data every month. It is an incredible increase comparing the entire internet backbone traffic was just 25 petabytes in 2000. The second and third wave is the consumption of the internet video on TVs and mobile devices. Mobile data, video in particular, can be extremely bandwidth hungry where an iPhone can generate as much traffic as 30 basic feature phones. Health Monitoring: There is a convergence of mobile communication with health care sector where mobile devices will be used to transmit the health information to servers maintained by individuals or health care providers for analysis. This information can then be used for remote patient monitoring and electronic care record system for patients. In Canada, there is already an increasing collaboration between wireless service providers like Telus and government funded eHealth to bring services such as mobile personal health records and tools.
  • 10. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 9 Growth Sectors The Canadian wireless telecommunication market has experienced a double digit growth in recent years and expected to record CAGR of 9.3% for the five year period 2009-14 (Appendix 4). The wireless subscribers are also expected to increase from current 24.4 million to 30.4 million by 2014, an increase of 24.5% since 2010. The Canadian penetration is still lagging by 27 points from USA and thus expected to catch up in future. In that sense, there is still considerable scope for growth in Canadian wireless market. Mobile Broadband Opportunity: Globally, mobile data traffic remains a small proportion of the fixed line data traffic. But, it is in no way undermining the capability of the mobile broadband which is expected to explode under the influence of plethora of bandwidth hungry internet capable mobile devices like smartphones, tablets and netbooks which can run a wide range of data applications. As per Gartner estimates, the smartphones will exceed the number of PCs by 2013 and mobile devices will become dominant internet access device.
  • 11. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 10 Mobile Broadband will follow the same trend as mobile voice which has overtaken the fixed telephone line for voice in 2001 (Appendix 5). The technological advancements in the areas of nanotechnology, memory, processing power and battery power to weight ratio have enabled the mobile devices to match user expectations in terms of their home or office internet experience. The resulting innovation and advancement has significantly increased the MBB2 subscriptions where it is expected to reach almost 5 billion by 2016. The rapid adoption of MBB already has a dramatic impact on the mobile networks (Appendix 6): AT&T has seen more than 200% increase in total MBB usage in 209 itself T-Mobile USA has reported that data-centric smartphone users consume 50 times more data than voice centric users. Verizon wireless reported more than doubling of data traffic every year Vodafone, UK reported 10-fold increase in data traffic in 12 months The unexpected increase in the data traffic has caused network congestion and requirement to increase the network capacity to meet the ever increasing demand for data services. As per Cisco estimated, the global mobile data traffic will exceed 1000 petabytes per month by 2012, a thousand-fold increase in just 7 years. New Wireless Networks for spectral efficiency: The mobile broadband subscriptions have already overtaken fixed line subscriptions in 2010 and are projected to reach around 2B in 2013 (Appendix 7). It is the data 2 Mobile Broadband
  • 12. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 11 challenge for the operators who are experiencing 10-fold increase in data traffic but only 10% increase in data revenue. The traffic for mobile voice has followed the revenue curve but it may not guarantee the similar success for data services as revenue and traffic is more decoupled. So, the challenge for operators is to increase the capacity in a financially viable manner. It provides the opportunity for the deployment of new wireless technologies with increasing spectral efficiency and higher peak data rates. There are various evolution paths for EDGE, HSPA, EV- DO and WiMAX (Appendix 8) but technologies of interest would only be HSPA+ and LTE. HSPA+: It refers to enhanced HSPA network which is already being deployed by Bell, Telus and Rogers in Canada and T-Mobile in US. It is being touted as network differentiator by the carriers with peak downlink throughput of 28Mbps in Rel. 7 HSPA+. As per Ericsson estimates, HSPA and LTE networks will contribute to 85% of subscription by 2016. In the 2009-2014 time periods, HSPA family networks will be the mobile broadband leader with almost 1.7B subscriptions (Appendix 9).Operators in Canada will continue to upgrade their existing CDMA and 3G networks in urban and sub-urban areas to HSPA+ technology. The given technology will also provide an upgrade path to LTE and enables voice over HSPA which can substantially free up spectrum for data (Appendix 10). LTE: LTE networks are gaining ground as it is designed for significantly higher level of capability and performance. This technology addresses the shift from voice to data by lowering the cost of data delivery. Moreover, it is being used by the carriers as a means to differentiate from other as this technology being truly 4th generation. The big three Canadian operators are looking for LTE deployment in some of the largest urban centers by late 2011 and early 2012. The early LTE connectivity could only be for data modem cards as voice over LTE still remains
  • 13. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 12 nascent. There are already 20 commercial LTE networks in 14 countries including Verizon Wireless in USA (Appendix 11) with 208 operators investing in LTE (GSA-May 11, 2011). But, the real growth in the deployment of this technology may take another 2-3 years in Canada, which is also in line with global LTE roadmap (Appendix 12). Femto Cells: The lack of spectrum to address the data traffic requirements and coverage issues can be addressed by femtocell architecture. It will not only provide indoor coverage but also help to offload traffic onto the fixed networks through subscriber’s broadband connection. It is increasingly being favored by operators to increase network capacity and user satisfaction as users can be served at near peak data rates. Canadian operators are already looking at femtocell solution for hotspot deployment and user’s broadband connection (Appendix 13). Exponential Growth in Mobile Apps: The mobile data traffic usage is greatly influenced by App Store concept introduced by Apple in July 2008 with the launch of iPhone. It was followed by other mobile phone vendors like Android market from Google and App World from RIM (Appendix 14). These app stores give the ability to 3rd party developers to create application for the particular mobile platforms and thus lead to the development of ecosystem. According to AdMob, iPhone users spend over $9 per month on purchase of apps. The apps download are increasing at a fanatic pace surpassing 10bn downloads with $5 bn revenue in 2010.
  • 14. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 13 Many Operators are joining this bandwagon of opening their own app stores so that they can foster their own ecosystems which can optimally leverage the device and network capabilities. Moreover, carriers don’t want to become a dumb transmission pipes for all these innovative services and capture the upside of this new business. There is already an operator-led effort to form Wholesale Application Community (WAC), a global cross platform app store for multiple devices and operating systems. Rogers and Bell are part of this global initiative. Job Creation in Next 5 years As per OVUM consulting report, the Canadian wireless telecommunication industry created 274500 direct, support and indirect jobs (Appendix 15). So, jobs in the sector should increase at a compound annual growth rate of 9.3% which is same as the growth rate of the Canadian wireless telecommunication market. Wireless operators contribute to the lion’s share of the jobs in the sector. The recent entry of new players like Wind Mobile in Toronto and Videotron in Quebec will open new jobs in the wireless segment in next few years. The smartphone market is in a high growth stage and expected to grow at a CAGR of 36% in the period 2011-2015. So, it will create more jobs in Research In Motion and other related companies. The growth in mobile broadband and M2M cloud platforms will also lead the growth in jobs for Sierra wireless and other mobile computing companies. The wireless infrastructure vendor providers will benefit from the deployment of HSPA+ and LTE networks by Bell, Telus, Rogers and other regional providers. Ericsson’s Montreal R&D centre, company’s largest outside of Sweden, can be beneficiary of this trend. Ericsson supplies network equipments to Rogers and AT&T. Nokia Siemens Network and Huawei can lead to new job creations due to their contract to supply HSPA+ network to Bell and Telus.
  • 15. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 14 Some other prospective job categories in this domain will be: High speed backhaul to support growth in data traffic will require extensive investment in optical fibers at both metro and regional level Modernization of core network to an all-IP core. Some of the old operators like Bell have to completely change their interfaces across the core network. RF planning for the extensive deployment of the new HSPA and LTE networks Mobile App developers Declining sectors in the industry Voice vs. Data: Mobile data traffic has over taken mobile voice traffic around 2011 in North America. Voice has been the driving force for the design and deployment of the mobile networks starting from 2G but the future networks of HSPA+ and LTE are designed around data traffic. LTE has no dedicated CS call and voice will be carried in packets as data traffic. Voice has been the mainstay of revenue for mobile networks in recent years but it is expected to decline in next 5 years and will be compensated by increased demand in mobile broadband both globally as well as Canadian market as below: The declining trend of the voice revenue is already visible in the Q1 results of BCE Inc.
  • 16. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 15 Decline of CDMA based network: CDMA technology has 10.3% of the global technology share with North America constituting the 29.4% of the CDMA subscribers worldwide3 . Bell, Telus, Sasktel and MTS Mobility have deployed CDMA networks in Canada. But, the cellular technology evolution has different paths for CDMA based family and 3GPP standards (Appendix 16). The selection of LTE as the choice for the 4th generation technology by majority of carriers worldwide and CDMA based Verizon Wireless in US has tilted the balance towards 3GPP technologies in North America. Moreover, the WCDMA/HSPA technologies provide an easier migration path to LTE as compared to CDMA technologies. It already has an impact on Canadian wireless landscape where Bell and Telus have chosen HSPA network as their next generation wireless technology. It has put CDMA’s evolution path in question in Canada as two technologies are quite incompatible and it may be difficult to support both of them. Bell and Telus have already spent over $1 billion overlaying the HSPA network and the new player Wind Mobile is also offering HSPA/WCDMA network. In this regard, CDMA network and subscribes will continue to decrease in Canadian wireless landscape. 3 Reported by CDMA Development Group, December 2010
  • 17. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 16 Decline of 2G technologies: The 2nd generation GSM technology has over 80%4 of the global market share and is being used by Rogers in Canada. The subsequent advancements in the 2G technology are brought by GPRS and EDGE, which has added data networks to the predominantly voice centric GSM technology. There is a further evolution path of Evolved EDGE with downlink peak data rates of 1.89 Mbps. But, HSPA networks are marching over the existing 2G networks and choice for new players like Wind Mobile, Mobilicity and Videotron are also UMTS/HSPA networks. In this regard, 2G based networks and subscribers will continue to decline and it may only be used in rural areas. Decline of WiMAX technology: WiMAX is one of the candidates for the 4G technology but its utility has been limited due to lack of interoperability with other cellular technologies. The main proponent of mobile WiMAX is Sprint Nextel and Clearwire in USA. The technology has some footprints in Canada also with Craig wireless, Primus and Sogetel Inc. among others. But, WiMAX adoption will decline in future and being only offered as low-cost alternative for limited mobility broadband services. Decline in Messaging services of SMS: The emergence of mobile broadband and instant messaging applications like BBM (BlackBerry Messenger) will limit the utility of legacy messaging services like SMS. The spread of HSPA and LTE networks will further move the traffic from SMS services where messaging will be made more content rich with video as in FaceTime chatting application from Apple. 4 Source: GSMA
  • 18. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 17 Job Losses in next 5-10 years The demand for skilled wireless telecommunication specialists is very high in mobile broadband and advanced network area. However, there are certain areas which are seeing stagnation and will lose jobs in the coming years. The change in the consumer behavior has led to the explosive growth of mobile broadband which is expected to increase 26-fold between 2010 and 20155 but voice traffic is expected to drop significantly in next 5-10 years. So, the jobs will be lost in the circuit-switched core network side. These losses will be both at operator as well as network vendor side6 . Other significant area of job losses will be the people directly or indirectly employed in the maintenance and operation of CDMA based networks. Major Canadian Operators including Bell and Telus are moving to HSPA and LTE networks and it may result in winding down of their CDMA and EVDO networks in future. It will cause job losses in the operators as well as Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent who are the major vendors for CDMA infrastructure in Canada. Similarly, the emergence of 3G networks will lead to winding down of the GSM/GPRS/EDGE networks in the Canadian cities and sub-urban areas. It will also cause job losses at network operators, equipment suppliers and supplier of support services. Proprietary protocols developed for M2M services will be overtaken by standardized protocols developed by big companies like Google Wallet by Google in collaboration with MasterCard. Similarly, server based mobile services hosted by 3rd party companies will be replaced by cloud based services hosted by software giants like Microsoft, Apple and Google. It will lead to job losses for smaller players in the given sector. 5 Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2010-12 6 In the real world scenario, the research paper would have forecasted the number of losses but the required data is not readily available
  • 19. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 18 Conclusion Canadian wireless industry is a growing sector and its revenue of $16.9 billion constitutes the largest component (41%) of the total telecommunication revenues7 . The sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.3% in the five year period of 2009-14. The mobile phone penetration in Canada is still 79% and is expected to rise to 93.5% by 20208 . Another significant trend is the conversion of feature phone users into smartphone users leading to explosive growth of mobile broadband market. It is an extremely important growth segment as Tablets, smartphones and netbooks has higher ARPU9 . The MBB is becoming the number 1 service category in terms of traffic generated on the mobile networks whereas mobile voice traffic will remain limited in comparison in future. It is recommended that the company should invest in the mobile broadband market to expand its services and data capacity. The winning mobile broadband strategy will be availability of high-end and mass market smartphone devices, service differentiation with pricing based on quality of service and next generation HSPA+ and LTE networks. The company needs to ensure good wireless coverage, higher capacity to support video streaming and other bandwidth hungry applications, optimized smartphones for efficient data transfer and better user experience as well as higher perceived speed and low latency in the wireless networks. Since the value chain of wireless industry is very large consisting of carriers, mobile and network equipment vendors, HW and component supplier, content and application providers, it is imperative for the company to develop the right ecosystem where value can be shared and increased due to the networking effect. The company has to work as a cornerstone to nurture and flourish this ecosystem. 7 Source: Canadian Wireless Telecommunication Association 8 Source: National Statistic, Euromonitor International 9 Average Revenue per user
  • 20. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 0 Appendix A Political Canadian governement in the form of Canadian Radio Television and Telecommunications Commission is the spectrum management organization; sole supplier of bandwidth and licenses. The wireless industry is very regulated with the oligopoly of big three operators. But In 2008, Canadian government auctioned AWS spectrum for $4.26 billion with some spectrun blocks reserved for new entrants only. Gobalive was able to win 10MHz spectrum in Toronto whereas Quebecor has won the similar spectrum in Montreal. The further opening up of this sector by the governement can have have many ramification for the industry. Economic The recent global economic recession has also slowed down the growth of canadian wireless sector. It can play an important rols as it deters carriers from investing in capaital expenditures required for high-spped networks, better coverage and services. The weakness in economy will continue to adversely impact customer demand and supplier bases in 2010. The improvement in the economy in 2011-12 time frame will be the right boost required in the industry with recent announcements about launch of LTE networks in late 2011 or early 2012. Social Growing number of Canadians are spending more time on social networks, with facebook being the most popular. As per eMarketer report (2010), about 15.1 million Canadians have visited social networking sites at least monthly and it is going to increase to 18.4 million Canadians by 2014. In fact the Canadians, under the age of 30, have adopted social networking as a part of their normal communication activities. This shift in the consumer behavior is also due to the mobile technology changes that have brought the ability to communicate using different apps through their feature rich smart phones. Technological The technological advancements in areas such as processing power, nanotechnology and storage capacity has enabled true ubiquitous mobile access with next-generaation advanced wireless networks with peak downlink data rates as high as 150 Mbps. It has led to innovative mobile services like health monitoring, location based services, M-commerce, M-education, M-government and mobile entertainment. Legal Government legislation in the wireless sector can significantly increase the barriers to entry by setting rules and regulation related to infrastructure, distribution channels and networks. Domestic regulations can also be a discouraging factor for new entrants where it can even legally forbid certain parties to enter the sector as in the case of Chinese equipment vendors like Huawei and ZTE who are not able to compete for US tenders Environmental Canadian geography is very sparsely populated except for some major cities. The population density is only 4 people per sq. km as compared to Europe who have 70 people per sq. km or US with 30 people per sq. km. It generally translates into higher capital expenditure for the operators. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) has recently cautioned that electromagnetic radiations generated by cellphones and other wireless communication devices can possibly be carcinogenic to humans. It has just been cautioned as possible link and not a proven one between wireless devices and cancer. But, this study can have long reaching effect on the industry. PESTLE Analysis: Canadian Wireless Telecommunication Sector
  • 21. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 1 Appendix 1
  • 22. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 2 Appendix 2
  • 23. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 3 Appendix 3
  • 24. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 4 Appendix 4
  • 25. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 5 Appendix 5 Appendix 6
  • 26. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 6 Appendix 7 Appendix 8
  • 27. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 7 Appendix 9 Appendix 10
  • 28. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 8 Appendix 11 Appendix 12
  • 29. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 9 Appendix 13 Appendix 14
  • 30. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 10 Appendix 15 Appendix 16
  • 31. MKTG 6650S Voice and Data Networks 11 References BCE Inc., Morgan Stanley Report, May 2011 BCE Inc., Company Profile, Datamonitor, December 2010 Consumer Lifestyles in Canada, Euromonitor International, February 2011 HSPA+ Understanding the Benefits, GSMA, February 2010 Internet Access in Canada, Datamonitor, February 2010 The 4G LTE Guide, LTE Portal, May 2011 The Benefits of the Wireless Telecommunication Industry to the Canadian Economy, April 2010 Monetising Mobile Boradband Through Services and applications, GSMA, May 2011 Mobile Phones in Canada, Datamonitor, October 2010 Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020, a report by the UMTS forum, 2011 Mobile Broadband Evolution: the roadmap from HSPA to LTE, A white paper from UMTS forum, February 2009 Networking Equipment in Canada, Datamonitor, May 2010 Recognizing the Promise of Mobile Broadband, A white paper from UMTS forum, July 2010 Rogers Communications, Investor fact sheet 4Q10 Solving Spectrum Gridlock: Reforms to Liberalize Radio Spectrum Management in Canada in the Face of Growing Scarcity, C.D. Howe Institute, May 2010 The Arvani Report, Arvani Group, February 2011 Telecommunication Services in Canada, Datamonitor, September 2010 Telus Corporation, Company Profile, December 2010 Wireless Telecommunication Services in Canada, Datamonitor, September 2010 Wireless Telecommunication Services in United States, Datamonitor, September 2010