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special issue
                              Number 4, 2009


                                                                      IN THIS ISSUE
                       Q&A: Bob Metcalfe                           Chris Brogan
                       The past and future ofl
                        the Web, networking, l                John Seely Brown
                                  and energy l                      Jim Champy
                                             l                       Jeff Clavier
                                             l                   Dave Cullinane
                         life in information l                   Steve Duplessie
                                             l                      Rob Enderle
                                                                    Laura Fitton
Tim Berners-                                 l
                                                                      Seth Godin
Lee on his                                   l
                                             l                      Paul Graham
world-changing                               l                    Guy Kawasaki
invention                                    l                    Paul Kedrosky
                                             l                     Loic Le Meur
                                             l                         Dany Levy
                                                            Sanjay Mirchandani




               20
                                             l
                                             l                   Craig Newmark


The Web at                                   l
                                             l
                                             l
                                             l
                                                                         Jeff Nick
                                                                  Jakob Nielsen
                                                                Andrew Odlyzko
                                                                    Tim O’Reilly
                                             l                Jeremiah Owyang
                                             l                Howard Rheingold
                                             l                       Steve Rubel
                                             l                         Paul Saffo
                                             l                         Dave Sifry
                                             l                    David Vellante
                                            webb chaPPell          Jimmy Wales
                                             l
                                                                                      3
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                                                                    john GoodMan
    Celebrating the beautiful mind
w   About 10 minutes into the process
    of editing my colleague Gil Press’s
    fascinating interview with bob
    Metcalfe—the legendary co-creator of
    the ethernet standard and founder of
    3com—I was struck by a revelation.
    This issue of ON is not only a celebration
    of the web’s 20th anniversary. It is
    also a celebration of “the beautiful
    minds,” which, collectively, created the
    transformational technologies that now
    permeate our daily lives: the world wide
    web itself; the network and Internet
    technologies that form its foundation;
    and the ever-expanding constellation
    of apps, services, and devices that
    utilize the web as a global platform for
    communications and computing.

    There at the Creation If you read
    nothing else in this issue, I encourage
    you to read the Metcalfe interview
    and the Q&a with Sir Tim berners-
    lee, whose genius it was to define the
    “three adequate standards” (Metcalfe’s
    words) that are the basis of the web
    and account for its astonishing flexibility,
    longevity, and ubiquity. with birth                                            2
    dates that bracket the first half of the %
                                                                         73
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
  Celebrating the beautiful mind [Continued]
    baby boom generation, these two men are the            (wikipedia), dany levy (dailycandy), and Tim
    technology equivalent of first-generation rock         o’Reilly (o’Reilly Media), and they were all asked
    stars. Their observations and insights on the          the same three questions:
    genesis and evolution of the web shine with the          • How has the Web changed your life?
    authenticity and intellectual wattage of those who       • How has the Web changed business and society?
    not only were “there at the creation,” but also          • What do you think the Web will look like in 20
    helped spark the creation.                                 years?

    Future Focused equally important, they both               characteristic of all beautiful minds, their re-
    remain deeply involved in exploring how the web        sponses—which are excerpted throughout the
    can be harnessed to address some of the greatest       issue—are wonderfully frank and varied, often un-
    challenges we face as a society. Metcalfe’s vision     expected, and colored with flashes of humor and
    for increasing the efficiency of energy distribution   self-revelation. Many share a genuine concern for
    by emulating certain core characteristics of the       the two-edged nature of new technology, which
    Internet is compelling. berners-lee discusses how      can always be used for good and evil alike.
    we can accelerate discovery and collaboration             In addition to all these voices, this special issue
    on a large scale by freeing data from today’s          of ON includes reflections and predictions from
    information “silos” and allowing it to be linked       both regular and occasional contributors—jim
    together via the Semantic web.                         champy, Rob enderle, jeff nick, Sanjay Mirchan-
                                                           dani, and Steve duplessie—and from correspon-
    But Wait! There’s More! In addition to                 dents specially enlisted to describe how the web
    publishing these full-length interviews, we asked      is affecting life in ascendant economies and devel-
    regular columnists Tim devaney and Tom Stein           oping countries in asia, africa, and latin america.
    to do “mini-interviews” with 20 members of the            on this 20th anniversary of the web, there’s
    Inforati: the entrepreneurs and opinion makers         much to celebrate and reflect on and anticipate.
    who have played a critical role in dragging us all     and it’s all powered by the beautiful mind.
    tweeting, IMing, and YouTubing into this next
    stage of the Information age. Those interviewed          Christine Kane                                         3
    include craig newmark (craigslist), jimmy wales          ONeditor@gmail.com
                                                                                                                    73
2
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                                                                                                                                         Saffo, Paul ................................................28
                                                                                                                                         Sifry, Dave ................................................20
                                                                                                                                         Van Dam, Andy..................................61, 62
                                                                                                                                         Vellante, David ...................................17-18
                                                                                                                                         Wales, Jimmy .......................................... 27
                                                                                                                                         Wells, H.G. ................................................ 61


                                                                                                                                           Places
                                                                                                                                         Angola ....................................................... 41
                                                                                                                                         Archive.org ..............................................64
                                                                    Jin, Hai........................................................ 7   Argentina .................................................30
    PeoPle                                                          Kahle, Brewster ......................................64             China ..................................................... 7, 27
                                                                    Kawasaki, Guy ........................................... 6          DailyCandy.com ....................................... 5
  Adams, Douglas......................................... 6         Kedrosky, Paul ......................................... 53          Gutenberg.org .........................................62
  Battelle, John ..........................................28       Le Meur, Loic........................................... 31          India ....................................................34-35
  Berners-Lee, Tim ...........9, 21-26, 28, 59,                     Levy, Dany .................................................. 5      Mauritius ...........................................46-47
                                                 62, 63, 64         Licklider, J.C.R..................................49, 61             Namibia ..............................................38-39
  Brogan, Chris ........................................... 16      Massing, Michael ..................................... 6             Twitter.com ....................10, 15, 31, 43, 53
  Brown, John Seely .................................20             Metcalfe, Bob ................................8-14, 59               Venezuela ................................................. 56
  Bush, Vannevar .......................... 28, 61, 62              Mirchandani, Sanjay .......................36-37                     Well.com ........................................... 29, 62
  Champy, Jim ................................51-52, 65             Nelson, Ted .............................................. 61
  Clavier, Jeff ..............................................40    Newmark, Craig ...................................... 15
  Cullinane, Dave.................................54-55             Ng, Frederic .......................................46-47              PersPectives
  Duplessie, Steve............................... 42-43             Nick, Jeff ............................................32-33
  Dyson, Esther .......................................... 45       Nielsen, Jakob......................................... 47           Cloud computing ............ 6, 32-33, 36-37,
  Enderle, Rob ......................................44-45          Odlyzko, Andrew ..............................48-50                                                   48, 54-55, 58-60
  Engelbart, Doug ............................... 49, 62            O’Reilly, Tim ............................................ 19        Cross-references .................................... 61
  Fitton, Laura ............................................40      Owyang, Jeremiah ................................. 53                Future Web .............. 19, 21-26, 27, 44-45
  Fry, Jason ................................................. 57   Raj, Vidya ...........................................34-35          Hypertext/hypermedia ........... 61, 62, 63
  Godin, Seth ................................................ 5    Recchimuzzi, Hugo ................................ 41                Mobile Web.............................. 6, 17-18, 19
  Graham, Paul ........................................... 31       Rheingold, Howard ................................29                 Semantic Web ................. 5, 21-26, 32-33
  Grillet, Fran ............................................. 56    Rubel, Steve ............................................. 16        Serendipity ..........................................9, 49
  Iavarone, Hugo........................................30          Rusch, Rainer ....................................38-39              Traditional journalism/media 5, 15, 53


                                                                                                                                                                                                             4
                                                                      WEB TIME LINE % Page 61
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  dUMB aNd dUMBEr
  “The web is impossibly stupid. It’s ar-
                                                 the end of Print?
  chaic. It doesn’t do one percent of what it    Dany Levy
  ought to. It’s basically taking a model of a   Founder and editorial director of DailyCandy
  card catalogue and a few other items and       5 A lifestyle e-mail newsletter with a focus on style, food,
  slapping electronics on top of it. I think     and fashion, DailyCandy has three million subscribers for
  that the active web, which I’ve blogged        its 28 editions.
  about calling web 4, is a web that actu-
  ally knows who I am and who I know and         “I’m ambivalent about the demise
  leverages those connections on my be-          of print journalism. It’s a great op-
  half. It will speak up when I want it to and   portunity for dailycandy, but at the
  be quiet when I don’t. It’ll help me navi-     same time—being a little bit of an
  gate people.                                   old-school girl—I really like having
     “a simple example is when I’m at a          something in my hands. I like read-
  trade show and run into somebody, the          ing a book. I like reading a news-
  web ought to tell me when I last saw           paper. I like holding a magazine. I
  them. It ought to tell me that six steps       think that it’s about the anticipa-
  behind me is somebody I went to college        tion of waiting for the next issue to
  with. It ought to tell me that the booth I’m   come out and be on your doorstep,
  passing by sells [product] for three per-      and the thrill of getting it in your




                                                                                      adaM MccauleY
  cent more than the booth down the hall,        hands.
  so I shouldn’t even bother sticking my            “It’s the same thing with search-
  head in there. The web knows all these         ing for a record in a record store. I
  things. It’s just not good at telling me.”     remember, back in the day, having
                                                 to stupidly sing a song to the guy behind the counter trying to
  Seth Godin                                     figure out who the musician was. now you just type in a lyric,
  Author and entrepreneur                        and you can find it like that.
  5 Godin is the best-selling author of             “with the web, everything comes so easily. I wonder about       index

  10 books about marketing and work              the future and the human ability to research and to seek and
  including Tribes, The Dip, and                 to find, which is a really important skill. I wonder, will human    5
  All Marketers are Liars.                       beings lose their ability to navigate?”
                                                                                                                    73
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                           extra! extra!                   HoLograpHIc ME
                           “The practice of journalism,    “with the web,
                           far from being leeched by       I’ve become a
                           the web, is being reinvented    lot more digital.
                           there, with a variety of fas-   So as the years
                           cinating experiments in the     have gone by,
                           gathering, presentation, and    I have gone
                           delivery of news.”              from three or
                           —Michael Massing                four meetings
                                                           a day to zero
                                                           meetings per
                                                           day. everything
                                                           is phone calls,
                                                           e-mails, Skype, and this kind of stuff. cisco
                                                           has TelePresence technology that makes it
  (r)evolution                                             look like you’re all in a board room, sitting
                                                           around the table; they also have a thing
  “First we thought the                                    where they do Star Wars-like Princess lea
  Pc was a calculator.                                     holograms. That’s my perfect world, when
  Then we found out how                                    I can make a keynote speech in Mumbai
  to turn numbers into                                     via hologram. Truly the best will be when
  letters with aScII—and                                   there is a 3-d hologram of Guy giving a
  we thought it was a                                      speech. You can pass your hand through
  typewriter. Then we                                      him. That’s the ultimate.”
  discovered graph-
  ics, and we thought it                                   Guy Kawasaki
  was a television. with                                   Founder of Garage Technology
  the world wide web,                                      Ventures and co-founder of Alltop.              index

  we’ve realized it’s a                                    5 Kawasaki describes himself as “a fire-
  brochure.”                                               hose that answers the question: What’s           6
  —Douglas Adams                                           interesting?”
                                                                                                           73
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    ConneCting
          education and
          research in                              The chinaGrid, which
                                                   started with 12 universi-
                                                                                Google Gmail, Google doc, and
                                                                                Google Scholar.
          China                                    ties and has extended to
                                                   more than 40 currently, is
                                                                                   The web is also an important
                                                                                tool for me to do my research. The
                                                   the largest grid-computing   first time I used it was in 1996,
                                                   platform in china. It lets   while I was a visiting scholar in
                                                   users share some 2,000       Germany. It gave me a window to
                                                   different elite courses      explore all the research materials I
                                                   among all the disciplines    needed. nowadays, I spend about
                                                   and universities via a       six hours a day on the web to do
                                                   world wide web portal.       my research.
                                                   chinaGrid partners are          with the continued emergence
                                                   connected through a com-     of cloud computing, the Internet
                                                   mon virtual hub that links   will play even more important roles
                                                   them to the appropriate      in all areas of people’s daily lives
                                                   application resources—       in the future. Mobile devices and
    By Professor Hai Jin                 from life sciences research to video   smart phones will transform web
b   The world wide web has become courses and e-learning.
    an important unifying force for edu-    The Internet has impacted my
                                                                                technology, making it ubiquitous.

    cation and research across china.    country in many other ways as          profESSor HaI JIN is dean of the School of
       In 2002, china’s Ministry of edu- well. chinese society now heavily      Computer Science and Technology
    cation launched the china educa-     depends on the web in all areas,       at Huazhong university of Science
    tion and Research Grid project, a    including news online, streaming       and Technology, Wuhan, China,
    grid-computing platform, which       video, e-business, e-education, and    where he also serves as director of          index

    enables universities across the      online gaming. especially in the       the Cluster and Grid Computing
    country to collaborate on research, cloud computing area, most activi-      Lab and the Services Computing                7
    scientific, and education projects.  ties are now on the web, such as       Technology and System Lab.
                                                                                                                             73
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
  bob metcalfe has been involved—as a direct catalyst or a prominent
  observer—in a number of key milestones spanning the evolution of the
  IT industry: the birth of the Internet, the invention of Ethernet and
  local area networks, and the rapid adoption of the World Wide Web
  as the platform for linking information and people. Today, as a part-
  ner in Polaris Ventures, he invests in clean, low-cost energy solutions. %

  from
  ethernet
  to
  enernet:
  BoB Metcalfe on
             standards,
             serendiPity,
             and
             stUBs
                                                      christian northeast




                                                                               index



                                                                                8

                                                                               73
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  metCalfe [Continued]
  in the 20 years since
  the invention of the
  World Wide WeB,
                                                                       �        The Web demonstrates how
                                                                              powerful [its architecture] is,
                                                                  both by being layered on top of things that
                                                               were invented 17 years before, and giving rise
                                                         to amazing new functions in the following decades.”
  What has sUrPrised
  yoU most?                            That’s the surprise. what this       What has been a
  bob metcalfe: Tim berners-           has demonstrated is the efficacy     disappointment in the
  lee invented the uRl, hTTP,          of the layered architecture of the   context of the World Wide
  and hTMl standards. none of          Internet. The web demonstrates       Web—something you
  them is particularly impressive;     how powerful that is, both by be-    expected that didn’t pan out?
  so many high-tech people have        ing layered on top of things that    There’s no room for that. The
  found them to be in some way         were invented 17 years before        web has been so successful,
  deficient. but Tim came up with      and by giving rise to amazing        there’s nothing disappointing
  three adequate standards that,       new functions in the following       about it. Tim berners-lee tells
  when used together, ignited the      decades. based on the artfulness     this joke, which I hasten to retell
  explosive growth of the web. The     of the design of the interfaces,     because it’s so good. he was
  power of good standards is they      you give rise to serendipity.        introduced at a conference as
  leave you with no options. as           In the design of his standards,   the inventor of the world wide
  we used to say about ethernet,       Tim nailed down both expres-         web. as often happens when
  “anything which is not prohibited    sive power and simplicity, allow-    someone is introduced that way,
  is mandatory.”                       ing people to easily get started.    there are at least three people
     Think about that. we designed     It’s those three standards, plus     in the audience who want to
  some plumbing at the lower lev-      Mosaic, which added visual and       fight about that, because they
  els of the hierarchy, and 17 years   graphical veneer, plus the evan-     invented it or a friend of theirs         index

  later, Tim comes up with the         gelical verve of Tim berners-lee     invented it. Someone said, “You
  world wide web, which ether-         himself, that were probably all      didn’t. You can’t have invented it.        9
  net and TcP/IP carried just fine.    pivotal in that early takeoff.       There’s just not enough time in       %
                                                                                                                      73
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
  metCalfe [Continued]
  the day for you to have typed in     funeral at a time. These people      was when I tweeted the fact
  all that information.” That poor     had to die. There was no way of      that 111,111 squared equals
  schlemiel completely missed the      changing their minds. So, I un-      12,345,678,987,654,321. Then
  point that Tim didn’t create the     derstand generational ossifica-      I noticed that in a lot of the re-
  world wide web. he created           tion. when my partner accused        tweets there was a tag that I was
  the mechanism by which many,         me of it, I decided to participate   unaware of: number sign, nerd
  many people could create the         in this phenomenon so as to bet-     porn—this particular fact was
  world wide web.                      ter understand it.                   considered nerd porn.
                                          I’m beginning to find uses for
  And the mechanism to                 Twitter. by tweeting my weight,      In the early 1990s, you
  connect not only informa-            I have involved my followers in      argued in an InfoWorld
  tion, as was his original            a support group to help me lose      column against wireless
  vision, but now also                 weight. Knowing that I’m going       computing, advising readers
  connecting people with Web           to be tweeting my weight bears       to “wire up your homes and
  2.0 applications. You recently       on my behavior. So there’s one       stay there.”
  started to use Twitter. Why?         application—the support group        let’s divide that into two discus-
  I’m using Twitter because one        application.                         sions. I think that “wire up your
  of my partners, Mike hirshland,         My daughter is about to gradu-    home and stay there” is truer
  accused me of having a genera-       ate from college, and she’s look-    than ever. we’re at a time now
  tional problem. Young, hip people    ing for a job. I have tweeted this   where energy conservation is
  use social networks, and old farts   fact, and I’m actually getting       the next big thing, and one of
  don’t.                               inquiries about my daughter          the opportunities we have is the
     I used to be on the other side.   from people who might want to        substitution of communication
  I was helping to introduce lans      see her résumé. So, that’s the job   for transportation.
  when there were all these old        search application.                    but you ask about one of my
  farts who thought that punch-           one of my hobbies is math         regrettable columns. In the              index

  cards were the way you did           puzzles, and I tweet them now        early 1990s, there was a wireless
  computing. The joke was that         and then. The most response          bubble. There were a bunch of            10
  ethernet would be adopted one        I’ve ever gotten on Twitter          companies touting their modems       %
                                                                                                                     73
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
  metCalfe [Continued]
  and wireless mobility. but the       that’s not nearly as interesting as    people a rationale for building
  modems didn’t work very well,        these hyperbolic comments.             bigger ethernets. I drew a picture
  and they were bigger than the          I would like to point out that       that put the three-node network
  computers. I said that wireless      there is a figure of speech called     below a critical-mass point, ar-
  mobile Pcs would be like porta-      hyperbole. It’s a Greek word. It’s     guing that you needed to get to
  potties: Porta-potties are good      been around for a long time, so I      some higher number to achieve
  and useful things, but as a gen-     offer it in defense of some of my      critical mass. That was the dia-
  eral rule, the bathrooms that we     hyperbolic columns.                    gram that I gave to George Gilder
  use have pipes. So yes, there will                                          in 1993. he called it “Metcalfe’s
  be some wireless computers, but      Around the same time,                  law,” for which I’m grateful. The
  mostly we’ll use pipes because       George Gilder coined the               value of the network grows as
  pipes have so much more capac-       term “Metcalfe’s Law” to               n-squared—“n” being the num-
  ity. I was right about it in 1993:   describe your idea that                ber of machines connected to the
  That bubble burst, and all those     bigger networks are better.            network.
  mobile wireless companies went       In the context of the layered
  away.                                architecture of the Internet,          Networking PCs was a novel
     I went on to say in my column     don’t you think one can apply          idea at the time. So what did
  that wireless computing will         “Metcalfe’s Law” to the layer          you tell people they could do
  never be important. That’s where     of networking computers                with the network?
  I went wrong, because along          (the Internet), the layer of           when ethernet first came
  came wi-Fi. when I was writ-         linking information (the               out, our sales proposition was
  ing my column, I was often torn      Web), and finally, the layer of        PFMTS—Print, File, Mail, Termi-
  between being right and being in-    connecting people (Web 2.0)?           nal, Stubs.
  teresting. Many columnists make      That’s a great point. I’d never          You may remember the IbM
  the mistake of trying too hard to    thought of it that way. It wasn’t      Pc XT that came out in 1982. It
  be interesting. You use various      even called Metcalfe’s law when        had a 10-megabyte disk on it. no         index

  forms of hyperbole, like “There      I first used it. It was a slide in a   one could imagine what you’d do
  will never be anything like this.”   3com sales presentation. The           with 10 megabytes on your disk.           11
  well, maybe there will be. but       goal of the slide was to give          So the idea that you might want      %
                                                                                                                       73
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
  metCalfe [Continued]


                                                     �
                                                             I’m using Twitter because
                                                                   one of my partners ...
                                                                accused me of having a
                                                          generational problem. Young,
                                                              hip people use social net-
                                                             works, and old farts don’t,”
                                                           says Metcalfe, pictured here
                                                              atop Mount Kilimanjaro.




                                                                                                index



                                                                                                 12
                                                                                            %
                                                                                                73
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  metCalfe [Continued]
  to buy one Pc with a 10-mega-           have a dumb terminal on their        about nowadays: Energy or
  byte disk on it, and then share it      desk, and then they would have       what you call the Enernet.
  over the lan with cheaper disk-         a Pc on their desk. That didn’t      I’ve been on this Internet speak-
  less Pcs, had traction. The same        make any sense. So you’d just        ing tour, a two-year book tour
  thinking applied to laser printers      write software that allowed your     without a book. I felt I had a valu-
  that were new and expensive. So         Pc to be a dumb terminal so you      able contribution to make, look-
  share the printer, share the disk.      could access the minicomputer        ing at how we built the Internet
     I like to think about it as shift-   or the mainframe.                    and extracting the lessons from
  ing gears. The second gear was             Stubs were the aPIs for ac-       that, and then applying them to
  lan e-mail. The big e-mail car-         cessing the underlying network-      energy so we could solve energy
  riers of the time, like aol and         ing functionality, opening con-      problems sooner, better, faster.
  McI, didn’t consider it e-mail,         nections, closing connections,       I think there are a lot of lessons
  because my e-mails never left           etc. This is the serendipity idea    to be learned, such as the value
  the building. but already in the        again. one such new idea came        of decentralization, designing for
  early days of the Internet, we          from novell, which used the          abundance, or over-reliance on
  observed heavy e-mail traffic be-       stubs to share access—not to a       washington.
  tween Internet nodes within the         file, but to a database. This led       I used to defend that analogy.
  same building. we called it “in-        to the first use of multi-user ac-   I’ve now come full circle: I believe
  cestuous traffic”; it was surpris-      counting systems that ran on top     that energy is the Internet’s next
  ing, even embarrassing, because         of the lan. That’s how netware       killer app. we did mail, we did
  Internet e-mail was originally          got its foothold and eventually      telephone, we did commerce, we
  conceived for long-distance com-        blew past 3com’s operating sys-      did publishing, we did newspa-
  munications.                            tem.                                 pers (we’re about to kill newspa-
     T stood for terminal. There                                               pers), and now we, the Internet,
  were all these minicomputers            You have been drawing                are going to solve energy. For
  and mainframes still around in          interesting analogies                example, they talk about a smart           index

  those days. You couldn’t throw          from your experience with            grid. a smart grid is a bunch of
  them out, and all of them had           Ethernet and the Internet to         folks out there who want to build           13
  dumb terminals. People would            what you invest in and speak         new networks to solve energy           %
                                                                                                                          73
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
  metCalfe [Continued]
  and they call it the smart grid.           what’s more, the other thing      to deal with: video, mobile, and
  but instead of building an entirely     we did to telecom is we added        embedded. on the other axis are
  new network, another silo, why          storage. The original Internet had   the next three societal applica-
  not use the Internet as the con-        no storage in it. Then these ge-     tions that the web has to solve:
  trol plane for the smart grid?          niuses came up with the packet       energy, healthcare, and educa-
     but it’s even deeper than that.      switch, with core memory for         tion. I look in each of those nine
  That is, the very structure of the      storing packets. Then we added       boxes for companies, opportuni-
  energy network— the actual              disks to our computers. If you       ties, and progress.
  transmission and distribution—          look at the Internet now, there         Those three kinds of traffic
  needs to be like the Internet. So,      is storage everywhere. So we’re      have started arriving, but we
  it needs to be de-synchronized.         going to “storify” the energy        have a long way to go. Video is
  Right now, to put energy on the         network. Right now, they have        brand new on the Internet, as far
  grid, you need to synchronize           no place to put energy, so when      as I’m concerned. The mobile
  frequency and phase to get onto         they have excess energy, they        Internet has arrived, but it’s still
  it because it clicks with this          don’t know what to do with it.       happening. Then there’s embed-
  60-hertz centralized clock.             also, if renewables such as solar    ded traffic. Ten billion microcon-
     what the Internet did for com-       and wind are going to play any       trollers are shipped every year,
  munications was to take the             role, you need storage. I think      and only a tiny fraction of those
  clock out and put the clock in          storage is going to be big in this   are networked. Then there are
  the packet so there wasn’t a big        new energy network we have to        the three new killer apps—en-
  global ticking clock. I sent you        build.                               ergy, healthcare, and educa-
  the clock, and you were able to                                              tion—just sitting there. The web
  tick the bits at the rate that I told   What will the Web look like or       has got to solve all three of those
  you to, so we de-synchronized           should look like in 20 years?        problems.
  the net. we will end up de-syn-         Thinking about the future of the        what will the web look like in
  chronizing the power switching          web or the Internet, I came up       20 or 30 years? It will be com-        index

  network and end up with power           with a three-by-three matrix.        fortable with those three new
  packet switching, like the Inter-       on one axis are the three new        modes of traffic, and it will be       14
  net.                                    kinds of traffic that the web has    solving those three problems. p
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                 this i believe                                            pay aS yoU rEad?
                                                                                                   while 68 percent of the pub-
                                                                                                   lishers responding to a 2009
                                                                                                   survey sponsored by the amer-
                                                                                                   ican Press Institute said they
                                                                                                   thought readers who objected
                                                                                                   to paying for online content
                                                                                                   would have a difficult time
                                                                                                   replacing the information they
                                                                                                   get from newspaper websites,
                                                                                                   52 percent of readers said it
                                                                                                   would be either “very easy” or
                                                                                                   “somewhat easy” to do so.
 adaM MccauleY




                                                                         afghanistan, support for serious peace between Israel and
                                                                         the Palestinians, and, most importantly, the transforma-
                                                                         tion of american government.
                                                                            “There are now tools like 311 that allow people to get
                 Craig Newmark                                          everyday government things done, like getting a pothole
                 Founder of Craigslist                                  fixed or the garbage removed. More abstractly, people are
                 5 Through his personal blog, social networking         experimenting with how to use the web to get ordinary
                 channels, and speaking activities, Newmark uses        citizens involved in the creation of government policy. The
                 the Web as a platform to support social causes         idea is to complement our system of representative de-
                 important to him.                                      mocracy with a system of online grassroots democracy.
                                                                           “Mostly what I do to participate is chat with people in
                 “Personally speaking, the web allows me to con-        washington and then spread word of these new experi-          index

                 nect to a lot of people in a lot of ways, frequently   ments through the social media. So, I use Twitter. I use
                 social but also involving things that I believe in:    Facebook. I’m just one guy helping out. we need a lot          15
                 for example, support for veterans of Iraq and          more, but it’s happening.”
                                                                                                                                      73
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  gENIE EScapES BoTTLE                            Jumping the Gate
                            “I think the defin-   “one impact of the web is it allows you to gate jump, which is
                            ing moment for me     an expression my co-author julien Smith and I use a lot: gate
                            came in 2004 to       jumpers versus gatekeepers. we look at the web as this set
                            2005 when I was       of tools that allow people to try any idea without a whole lot
                            doing traditional     of expense but with the op-
                            public relations.     portunity to let your passion
                            I had started to      come first. The example that
                            blog—blogs were       we use is Perezhilton.com,
                            just emerging; they   which is a pop culture site
  weren’t in every niche yet—and I decided        where essentially he says
  to do a fun experiment. I said, ‘I bet I can    mean things about stars all
  stay up to date on sports and politics and      day long.
  tech and national news by just reading            “he had approached
  blogs and nothing else. I won’t read any        People magazine to work
  traditional media or watch any TV. I won’t      there, and a lot of the lesser
  even look at the ticker in Times Square.’       pop magazines, and they
  I said, ‘let’s try this for a week, and you     said, ‘no, not really.’ now
  give me a current events quiz at the end,       he’s handing them their hat
  and let’s see if I get a passing grade,’        as far as web traffic on any
  which I did. It actually made national          day, and he’s got a much smaller operation. So, one of the
  news. after that, there was no putting the      things I say is he makes by far more revenue per employee
  genie back in the bottle. I wasn’t going to     than any of those people because he only has like six employ-
  do traditional media relations anymore.”        ees. The web does that all the time. anyone can start any-
                                                  thing with very little money, and then it’s just a meritocracy in
  Steve Rubel                                     terms of winning the attention wars.”
  SVP, director of Insights for
  Edelman Digital                                 Chris Brogan                                                        index

  5 Through his Steve rubel Lifestream            President, New Marketing Labs
  site, rubel comments on emerging                5 brogan is a social media expert and co-author of the best-         16
  technologies and trends.                        selling book Trust Agents.
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                                                                          make better decisions.
                                                                            I left Idc in 1999 near the peak of the Internet
                                                                          bubble. I felt like a latecomer to the software
                                                                          startup game, and things were moving very fast.
                                                                          netscape (as we knew it) had come and gone,
                                                                          aol was the granddaddy of the Internet, and
                                                                          Yahoo was about to buy broadcast.com—a firm
                                                                          with a $50 million revenue run rate—for nearly
                                                                          $6 billion. web software at the time was plagued
                                                                          by performance and quality problems, but these
                                                                          were largely overlooked because of the access
                                                                          and version-control benefits users received.

                                                                          no dot-Com, no Money



                                                          adaM MccauleY
                                                                          we set out to stake our claim with a plan to build

     lessons learned
             launching
                                                                          enterprise software to analyze IT portfolios and
                                                                          improve the performance of technology invest-
                                                                          ments. we needed money, and Vcs seemed a
                                                                          logical route. So we wrote a business plan and
                              two WWW-era                                 started shopping it. The only thing the Vcs
                              startups                                    wanted to know was, “how are you a dot-com?”
                                                                          unfortunately, we didn’t have a good answer, and
  By David Vellante                                                       while we received some term sheets, we passed.
  This is the story of how my colleagues and I started                      This was 1999, and we were not to be stopped.
  two companies in the web era with virtually no out-                     In a few months, we raised more than $2 million
  side money. over the 10-year period in which we built                   from prospective customers, without giving up            index

  these companies, we witnessed a dramatic evolution                      a dime in equity. (Sometimes I miss 1999!) our
  in software development that drove us to apply two                      mindset was a bit different than “build it and            17
  completely different strategies to help IT managers                     they will come.” It was more like “Make the sale     %
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 lessons learned [Continued]
  and then design, build, test, and   port its many millions of users. we    are constant reminders of the need
  ship the software.” we had initial  knew the software scaled. also, it     for speed.
  product shipping within six months, had many features that allowed us         It’s been amazing to watch the
  and over the next several years, we to track changes in real time, col-    evolution of software since 1999. I
  spent many millions of dollars per- laborate with users, and manage        realize, however, that much more
  fecting the software and making it  content versions. It was incredibly    will be done in the next 10 years.
                                      powerful, and the code was avail-
  scale into an enterprise suite called                                      The online and physical worlds will
  Precision IQ. we considered our-    able for free. The “V8 moment” for     begin to collide as millions of mo-
  selves a capital-efficient business us was that once we’d settled on       bile devices provide inputs to the
  and were very proud of our techni-  Mediawiki, inside of a day and for     web. Further, the web’s collective
  cal achievements and the excellent  less than $5, we had a fully func-     intelligence will be harnessed by
  client base we’d built.             tioning version of the software,       software that provides context to a
     Fast forward to 2006. we re-     customized for our new commu-          user base with an insatiable ap-
  examined the technology research    nity. wikibon was born.                petite for information. expect the
  business and began envisioning         From this experience, we learned    pace of development to be non-
  models like wikipedia and Face-     two major lessons about the power      linear as the number of sensors
  book applied to the analyst busi-   of the web-based open source           on the web increases by orders of
  ness. we saw the confluence of      model:                                 magnitude.
  software technology, community         Instead of writing a business          Sometimes I’m not sure if I
  expertise, and content, and we      plan, you can very quickly deploy a    should be excited or scared. but
  thought the time had come for       product and launch a business. The     one thing’s for certain: I don’t want
  peers to interact and assist each   business itself is the initial plan.   to miss the ride.
  other in making better technology      Software development is no lon-
  decisions.                          ger a barrier to entry for entrepre-   davId vELLaNTE spent 15 years at IDC,
                                      neurs like us, but speed is. compe-    was the CeO of two startups, and is
  Wiki World                          tition has been popping up in many     a founder of The Wikibon Project, a     index

  In early 2007, we decided to deploy forms, which is good confirmation      community of business technology
  Mediawiki, the same open source     that we’re on to something. but it     practitioners. He can be reached on     18
  software used by wikipedia to sup- brings challenges and threats that      Twitter at @dvellante.
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  device driven
  Tim O’Reilly
  Founder of O’Reilly Media
  5 An early evangelist for the Web, O’reilly published The Whole Internet Users Guide & Catalog, which the
  New York Public Library named as one of the most significant books of the 20th century.


  “This next stage of the web is be-                                          it says, ‘There’s a tube station in
  ing driven by devices other than                                            four blocks.’ Point it down another
  computers. our phones now have                                              street and it says, ‘There’s a tube
  six or seven senses. The applica-                                           station in 12 blocks.’ everybody
  tions that are coming will take                                             thinks it’s recognizing the street.
  data from our devices and the                                               In fact, it has GPS and a compass.
  data that is being built up in these                                        what it’s recognizing is where
  big user-contributed databases                                              you are and in what direction your
  and mash them together in new                                               camera is pointing.
  kinds of services.                                                             “Google knows where you are
     “There is a program where you                                            because the phone has a report-
  can hold up your phone to the                                               ing app. They know where you’re
  radio and identify the song you’re                                          going because it’s your next ap-
  listening to. That’s a sensor that                                          pointment in your calendar. It’s
  you’re carrying around with you.                                            able to recognize your voice be-
  You can sign up for something                                               cause it has a microphone—ears
  called the Quake catcher network, which uses a          for the application—and it has speech recognition.
  distributed network of motion sensors that already      You say, ‘Take me to my next appointment,’ and bang!
  exists in phones and laptops to detect earthquakes.     It is these cooperating databases and cooperating         index

  There is an augmented-reality app called nearest        sensors that will enable augmented reality. I think
  Tube that is put out by a company in london. You        real-time translation is something that Google is very     19
  hold up your phone and point it down one street and     much working on.”
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  A New Kind of Intellectual                                       SpINaL Tap
  Infrastructure                                                                           “we’re going to see
                                                                                           some really inter-
  “In many ways, looking at how an idea unfolds through time                               esting applications
  gives you a much better sense of what that idea really is.                               based around the
  For people who are interested in always being on the edge                                fact that every single
  of whatever their topic is, they have to be able to reach out                            one of us right now is
  to understand what the current thinking is and to partici-                               walking around with
  pate in discussions and development of those ideas.                                      a pretty fascinat-
     “when I ran Xerox PaRc, I had access to one of the                                    ing platform we call
  world’s best intellectual infrastructures: 250 research-                                 the cell phone. It’s a
  ers, probably another 50 craftspeople, and six reference         mobile computer that does voice input, that
  librarians, all in the same building. Then one day to go cold    does voice and sound output, that can take
  turkey—when I did my first retirement—was a complete             video, that has GPS and a compass on it,
  shock. but with the web, in a year or two, I had managed         and that is connected to the Internet.
  to hone a new kind of intellectual infrastructure that in          “when I start thinking 20 years out or
  many ways matched what I already had. That’s obviously           even further, I can’t wait to get that implant
  the power of the web, the power to connect and interact          in the back of my spine that just plugs that
  at a distance. It gives you the ability to peer into embryonic   platform directly into your nervous system,
  ideas and watch or participate in their development, which       maybe over the optic nerve. Think about
  is such a powerful way to really understand the structure of     the opportunity and the level of connected-
  the idea.”                                                       ness and the amount that we’ll be able to

            $ !!              $ !!             $ !!                do when you even get rid of the computer
                                                                   as part of the interface and get all this in-
                                                                   put and output directly into your biological
  John Seely Brown                                                 systems.”
  Self-described “chief of confusion”
  5 The former chief scientist of Xerox Corporation, brown         Dave Sifry                                       index

  thinks, speaks, and writes on topics that include the man-       5 Sifry is a software entrepreneur and
  agement of radical innovation, digital youth culture, and        blogosphere icon. He founded Technorati, a       20
  new forms of communication and learning.                         leading blog search engine.
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  In 1989, while a fellow at CERN, the European Particle Physics
  Laboratory in Geneva, Switzerland, Tim berners-Lee invented the
  World Wide Web. Today, he is 3Com Founders Professor of Engi-
  neering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), where
  he serves as director of the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C),
  an international standards body dedicated to leading the Web to
  its full potential. Sir Tim is the author of Weaving the Web. Jason
  Rubin spoke with him at his office in Cambridge, Massachusetts.       %
  from the




                                                                            webb chaPPell
  Web of
  doCuments
  to the Web
  of data:

  tiM Berners-lee on
                                the fUtUre
                                     of his
                                 invention                                    73
                                                                                            index



                                                                                             21
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  berners-lee [Continued]
  tWenty years on,
                                               �
                                                           I believe that 20 years from now, people will look back
                                                           at where we are today as being a time when the Web of
  the World Wide WeB                                         documents was fairly well established. ... The Web of
  has Proven itself                                       data, though, which we call the Semantic Web, would be
                                                                                   seen as just starting to take off.”
  Both UBiqUitoUs
  and indisPensiBle.                        we should realize that, and we         are still fairly “pre-web.” Social
  did yoU anticiPate                        are constantly changing it, and        networking sites, for example,

  it WoUld reach this                       it’s very important that we do so.
                                               I believe that 20 years from
                                                                                   are still siloed; you can’t share
                                                                                   your information from one site
  statUs, and in this                       now, people will look back at
                                            where we are today as being a
                                                                                   with a contact on another site.
                                                                                   hopefully, in a few years’ time,
  time frame?                               time when the web of docu-             we’ll see that quite large cat-
  tim berners-lee: I think while            ments was fairly well established,     egory of social information truly
  it’s very tempting for us to look         such that if someone wanted            web-ized, rather than being held
  at the web and say, “well, here it        to find a document, there’s a          in individual lockdown applica-
  is, and this is what it is,” it has, of   pretty good chance it could be         tions.
  course, been constantly growing           found on the web. The web of
  and changing—and it will con-             data, though, which we call the        You mentioned a “small
  tinue to do so. So to think of this       Semantic web, would be seen            community” of people who
  as a static “This is how the web          as just starting to take off. we       see the value of the Semantic
  is” sort of thing is, I think, unwise.    have the standards but still just      Web. Is that a repeat
  In fact, it’s changed in the last         a small community of true be-          occurrence of the struggle
  few years faster than it changed          lievers who recognize the value        20 years ago to get people to
  before, and it’s crazy for us to          of putting data on the web for         understand the scope and                  index

  imagine this acceleration will            people to share and mash up and        potential impact of the World
  suddenly stop. So yes, the 20-            use at will. and there are other       Wide Web?                                 22
  year point goes by in a flash, but        aspects of the online world that       It’s remarkably similar. It’s very    %
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  berners-lee [Continued]
  funny. You’d think that once          it become tremendously fired         of people is really important.
  people had seen the effect of         up. once somebody has real-          when you get people who are
  web-izing documents to pro-           ized what it would be like to have   trying to solve big problems like
  duce the world wide web,              linked data across the world,        curing aIdS, fighting cancer, and
  doing likewise with their data        then they become very enthusi-       understanding alzheimer’s dis-
  would seem the next logical step.     astic, and so we now have this       ease, there are a huge number of
  but for one thing, the web was a      corps of people in many coun-        people involved, all of them with
  paradigm shift. a paradigm shift      tries all working together to make   half-formed ideas in their minds.
  is when you don’t have in your        it happen.                           how do we get them communi-
  vocabulary the concepts and the                                            cating so that the half of an idea
  ideas with which to understand        Do you see the Semantic              in one person’s head will connect
  the new world. Today, the idea        Web as enabling greater              with half of an idea in somebody
  that a web link could connect to      collaboration between and            else’s head, and they’ll come up
  a document that originates any-       among parties, as opposed to         with the solution?
  where on the planet is complete-      the point-to-point or point-           That’s been a goal for the web
  ly second nature, but back then       to-many communication                of documents, and it’s certainly a
  it took a very strong imagination     that seems more prevalent in         goal for the web of data, where
  for somebody to understand it.        the current Web?                     different pieces of data can be
     now, with data, almost all the     The original web browser was a       used for all kinds of different
  data you come across is locked        browser editor and it was sup-       things. For example, a genomist
  in a database. The idea that you      posed to be a collaborative tool,    may suspect that a particular
  could access and combine data         but it only ran on the neXT work-    protein is connected to a certain
  anywhere in the world and im-         station on which it was devel-       syndrome in a cell line, search
  mediately make it part of your        oped. however, the idea that the     for and find data relating to each
  spreadsheet is another paradigm       web should be a collaborative        area, and then suddenly put              index

  shift. It’s difficult to get people   place has always been a very         together the different strains of
  to buy into it. but in the same       important goal for me. I think       data and discover something              23
  way as before, those who do get       harnessing the creative energy       new. and this is something he        %
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  berners-lee [Continued]
                                                                       can do with the owners of the




                                                       webb chaPPell
                                                                       respective pieces of data, who
                                                                       might never have found each
                                                                       other or known that their data
                                                                       was connected. So the web of
                                                                       data will absolutely lead to great-
                                                                       er collaboration.

                                                                       Is your vision of the Semantic
                                                                       Web one in which data is
                                                                       freely available, or are there
                                                                       access rights attached to it?
                                                                       a lot of information is already
                                                                       public, so one of the simple
                                                                       things to do in building the new
                                                                       web of data is to start with that
                                                                       information. and recently, I’ve
                                                                       been working with both the u.K.
                                                                       government and the u.S. govern-
                                                                       ment in trying not only to get
                                                                       more information on the web,
                                                                       but also to make it linked data.
                                                                       but it’s also very important that
                                                                       systems are aware of the social
                                                                       aspects of data. and it’s not just        index

                                                                       access control, because an au-
                                                                       thorized user can still use the           24
                                                                       right data for the wrong purpose.     %
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  berners-lee [Continued]
  So we need to focus on what are      facturing schedule to meet our       gerous, or when an ecological
  the purposes for accessing dif-      demand. however, we do not           catastrophe happened. we can
  ferent kinds of data, and for that   license you to use it to give to     then identify patterns in a broad
  we’ve been looking at account-       our competition to modify their      range of data types that resulted
  able systems.                        pricing.”                            in something serious happening,
     accountable systems are              You need to be able to ask        and that will allow us to identify
  aware of the appropriate use of      the system to show you just the      when these patterns recur, and
  data, and they allow you to make     data that you can use for a given    we’ll be better able to prepare for
  sure that certain kinds of infor-    task because how you wish to         or prevent the situation.
  mation that you are comfortable      use it will be the difference in       I think when we have a lot of
  sharing with people in a social      whether you can use it. So we        data available on the web about
  context, for example, are not able   need systems for recording what      the world, including social data,
  to be accessed and considered        the appropriate use of data is,      ecological data, meteorological
  by people looking to hire you. For   and we need systems for helping      data, and financial data, we’ll be
  example, I have a GPS trail that     people use data in an appropriate    able to make much better mod-
  I took on vacation. certainly, I     way so they can meet an ethical      els. It’s been quite evident over
  want to give it to my friends and    standard.                            the last year, for example, that
  my family, but I don’t necessar-                                          we have a really bad grasp of
  ily wish to license people I don’t   Ultimately, what is one of the       the financial system. Part of the
  know who are curious about me        most significant things the          reason for that might be that we
  and my work and let them see         Semantic Web will enable?            have insufficient data from which
  where I’ve been. companies may       one thing I think we’ll be able      to draw conclusions, or that the
  want to do the same thing. They      to do is to write intelligent pro-   experts are too selective in which
  might say, “we’re going to give      grams that run across the web        data they use. The more data
  you access to certain product        of data looking for patterns when    we have, the more accurate our            index

  information because you’re part      something went wrong—like            models will be.
  of our supply chain and you can      when a company failed, or when                                                 25
  use it to fine-tune your manu-       a product turned out to be dan-      After 20 years, what is it            %
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  berners-lee [Continued]
  about the Web—either                  because there is no common             from the mundane to the
  about its current or future           format for this data to become         grotesque. Do you think
  capabilities—that excites             integrated into my devices.            humanity is using this
  you the most?                           now, the vision of Semantic          incredible invention of yours
  one of the things that gets me        web is that the seminar’s web          appropriately?
  the most excited are the mash-        page has information pointed at        Yes. The web, after all, is just a
  ups, where there’s one market         data about the event. So I just        tool. It’s a powerful one, and it
  of people providing data and          tell my computer I’m going to          reconfigures what we can do, but
  there’s a second layer of people      be attending that seminar and          it’s just a tool, a piece of white
  mashing up the data, pick-            then, automatically, there is a        paper, if you will. So what you
  ing from a rich variety of data       calendar that shows things that        see on it reflects humanity—or at
  sources to create a useful new        I’m attending. and automati-           least the 20 percent of humanity
  application or service. a clas-       cally, an address book I define        that currently has access to the
  sic example of a mash-up is           as having in it the people who         web.
  when I find a seminar I want          have given seminars that I’ve at-         as a standards body, the w3c
  to go to, and the web page has        tended within the last six months      is not interested in policing the
  information about the sponsor,        appears, with a link to the pre-       web or in censoring content, nor
  the presenter, the topic, and the     senter’s public profile. and auto-     should we be. no one owns the
  logistics. I have to write all that   matically, my Pda starts pointing      world wide web, no one has a
  down on the back of an enve-          towards somewhere I need to be         copyright for it, and no one col-
  lope and then go and put it in my     at an appropriate time to get me       lects royalties from it. It belongs
  address book; I have to put it in     there. all I need to do is say, “I’m   to humanity, and when it comes
  my calendar; I have to enter the      going to that seminar,” and then       to humanity, I’m tremendously
  address in my GPS—basically,          the rest should follow.                optimistic. after 20 years, I’m
  I have to copy this information                                              still very excited and extremely      index

  into every device I use to man-       The Web is such a mélange              hopeful. p
  age my life, which is inefficient     of useful, noble content and                                                 26
  and time-consuming. This is           stuff that runs the gamut
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  Number 1                               vIdEo vISIoN                                            C
  millions of users                      “one of the things I would like to see in the future
                                         is large-scale, collaborative video projects. Imagine
  300                                    what the expense would be with traditional meth-
                                         ods if you wanted to do a documentary film where


                                                                                                 C
                                         you go to 90 different countries and in each one,
                                         you do a one-minute clip asking a person on the
                                         street what they think of a certain question like,
                      The number         ‘what do you think of global warming?’ or, ‘what do
                      of Internet        you think about obama being elected?’
                      users in china        “To get an interesting 90-minute film, you’d need
                      jumped nearly      900 short videos because many of them won’t be
  200                 42 percent to      that great. Then you have to translate them because


                                                                                                 C
                      298 million        you’re talking to people in 60 or 70 languages. That
                      by the end of      would be an enormous undertaking.
                      2008 from             “but with the web, a large community online
                      the previous       could easily make that happen. They get 10 or 20
                      year, according    videos per country. They upload them all. The com-
                      to the china       munity starts working, finding the funny ones, the
                      Internet           touching ones, the thoughtful and serious ones—
                      network            because you want to have a mix. That’s just one


                                                                                                 C
  100                 Information        example of something you couldn’t do in the tradi-
                      center             tional way but that you could do with a large com-
                      (cnnIc), a         munity online.”
                      state-affiliated
                      research group,    Jimmy Wales
                      making china       Founder of Wikipedia
                      the country        5 Wales is co-founder of Wikia, a consumer-                 index

                      with the most      publishing platform that enables communities to

    0
                      Internet users
                      in the world.
                                         create their own wikis around shared interests such
                                         as food, politics, and entertainment.
                                                                                                 C   27

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                                                                               , W
  think big, think long                                                  X                 8
                                                                                               9
                                                                                                     “when data
                                                                                                     of any sort are
  Paul Saffo
                                                                       S                             placed in stor-
  Technology forecaster                                                                              age, they are
  5 Saffo explores technological change and its impact on busi-                                      filed alpha-
  ness and society. He teaches at Stanford university and is a                                       betically or
  visiting scholar in the Stanford media X research network.                                         numerically,
                                                                                                     and informa-
                                “The Internet indirectly came out      tion is found (when it is) by tracing it
                                of the space program, daRPa’s          down from subclass to subclass. ... The
                                research, and the whole climate        human mind does not work that way. It
                                of ‘anything’s possible,’ the moon     operates by association. with one item
                                shot, apollo, and all that. The In-    in its grasp, it snaps instantly to the next
                                ternet resulted from our going into    that is suggested by the association of
                                space, and the web came out of         thoughts, in accordance with some intri-
                                ceRn, which of course is concerned     cate web of trails carried by the cells of
                                with going in precisely the opposite   the brain.”           —Vannevar Bush, 1945
                                direction: into the very small, into
                                the inner space of atoms.
    “The parallels for today are hugely important. aRPaneT
  and then the Internet took off because we had an environ-                    “What does it mean … to
  ment where people were allowed to think big and think long,                 become immortal through
  and to build things that nobody was sure would actually                     words pressed in clay—or
  take off. I love that story of when Tim [berners-lee] took his               … through words formed
  proposal to his boss, who scribbled on it, ‘Sounds exciting,                  in bits and transferred
  though a little vague.’ but Tim was allowed to do it.                          over the Web? Is that
    “I’m alarmed because at this moment in time, I don’t think                  not what every person
  there are any institutions out there where people are still al-             longs for—to die, but to be              index

  lowed to think so big. while we celebrate the arrival of this                    known forever?”
  marvelous thing, the big question we should be asking our-                        —John Battelle                     28
  selves is, ‘are we stifling the creation of the future webs?’”
                                                                                                                       73
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  35 yEarS of coNNEcTINg
  “I first started getting excited about groups of people     legends, and hoaxes. Scurrilous political rumors are
  communicating socially in 1985, when I became in-           believed, stupid things like ‘pass this e-mail along, and
  volved in the well, which I called a virtual communi-       bill Gates will pay you $5.’ and, more seriously, people
  ty. It was based on the computer that cost about three      with illnesses are getting great information but also
  quarters of a million dollars, and you had to get                  bad information.
  an expensive software license to run your                                   “My personal challenge, what I’m work-
  own bbS.                                                                     ing on for the next few years, is lit-
      “now, you probably carry 10,000                                             eracy. I’ve written about 21st century
  times that much computer power                                                   literacy, about attention literacy,
  in your pocket, with your iPhone                                                   about Twitter literacy, and about
  or blackberry. and you don’t                                                        crap detection 101. (and by the
  have to pay for any license. You                                                    way, it’s legit to use the term
  can start a Google group. You                                                       ‘crap detection.’ It’s a quote from
  can create a Meebo chat room                                                        hemingway.) People need to
  and drag it to a netvibes RSS ag-                                                   cultivate and understand how to
  gregator. all are free. who would                                                  deploy their attention, participa-
  have thought that all the knowl-                                                 tion, collaboration, ability to deter-
  edge in the world would be available                                           mine the credibility of information,
  at your fingertips by asking a question                                      and awareness of how to use networks.
  correctly to a search engine? we take                                   It’s both a personal necessity and a re-
  these things for granted, but I’m still marveling at              sponsibility to society.”
  it.
      “economically, politically, socially, and culturally,   Howard Rheingold
  the web allows people to do things together that            Writer and educator
  they weren’t able to do before. I think in the long run,    5 The author of Smart Mobs, The Virtual Commu-                index

  that’s the most important thing. but I want to add one      nity, and other books, rheingold writes, speaks, and
  caveat. I think we are in danger of drowning in a sea       blogs on the social media classroom, cooperative com-         29
  of misinformation, disinformation, spam, porn, urban        munities, and other topics.
                                                                                                                            73
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     the Web:
     a huge turn
     in our
     history                                             net has revolutionized
                                                         how we do business.
                                                                                    capabilities.
                                                                                       after having worked in the IT



     argentina
                                                         back when GIRe was         business for 23 years, I can’t imag-
                                                         founded in 1991, our       ine life without the Internet and
                                                         files interchange con-     the web. I rely on it for the news,
                                                         sisted of 5 1/4-inch       weather, social networks, business
                                                         diskettes or tape reels.   and pleasure trips, papers, forums,
    By Hugo A. Iavarone                    In 1994, we started to transmit          blogs, college finals, the Tampa-
b   The world wide web has been
    a life-changing experience for my
                                           our files using bbS software with
                                           19200-baud modems. This process
                                                                                    laya’s height, renting cars, buying
                                                                                    food, checking my bank account,
    company and for me personally.         was slow and insecure.                   chatting with friends, finding the
       GIRe is an argentinean company         when GIRe first started using the     history of any civilization, checking
    specializing in solutions integration Internet in 1998, the transforma-         the dollar and euro exchange rates,
    for commercial transactions that       tion was really fantastic. we had no     music, radio programs, checking
    involve cash flow and information      congestion in the telephone lines.       calories ingested, video viewing,
    with high security standards. a        we were able to buy network cards        and many other things.
    typical example of one of our key      almost immediately as opposed               I am truly convinced that my life
    solutions is the taxes and services    to waiting for months. we shared         has undergone a 180-degree transi-
    payment system, called Rapipago.       experiences about configuration          tion, in an amazing and extremely
    It offers a service that was provided problems and other technical solu-        positive way. I am now able to
    in the past by financial institutions. tions with other users.                  understand why information is so
       GIRe’s customers span a wide           later on, we added e-mail solu-       vital for our lives, both at work and
    range of major industries and in-      tions, practically replacing the use     at home.
    clude telecommunications provid- of telephones and our paper                                                            index

    ers, credit card companies, and        memos. This provided us with the         HUgo a. IavaroNE is chief information
    banks.                                 richest communication system in          officer at GIre, buenos Aires,          30
       over the past decade, the Inter-    our history, including tracking          Argentina.
                                                                                                                            73
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  SHIp aNyWHErE
  “For businesses, that metaphor of the
                                                  (global) Village boy
  information superhighway, tired as it is,       “I was born in a village in the South
  turned out to be exactly right. Inventing       of France. especially if you were
  things like railroads, canals, and high-        in the countryside, you had few
  ways turned out to be good for people           friends, maybe 10 or 20, whom you
  who make physical stuff because they            hung out with. now I interact daily
  could move that stuff around. consum-           with hundreds and sometimes
  ers don’t just have to buy stuff from the       thousands of people. I have about
  local supplier. They can buy it from who-       30,000 followers on Twitter, 6,000
  ever is best in their whole catchment           on Facebook, and I get 1,000 piec-
  basin. The Internet has done that for           es of feedback a day.
  information. You don’t just have to use            “It has become for me and so
  whatever information is local. You can          many other people the most important way to do anything. It
  ship information to anyone anywhere.            ranges from twittering about a restaurant because you can’t
     “The key is to have the right filter. That   decide which sushi bar is better, to buying a product or finding
  filter is often what startups make. So, a       a job.
  startup making a cRM tool will enable              “I organized a conference in Paris where we gathered 2,000
  a business to filter the huge amount of         people from many countries. I needed to partner with an air-
  interactions with customers and figure          line company, so I posted a tweet, ‘does anybody know any-
  out: are there patterns? are a bunch            one in air France?’ In two hours, I had a contact, and in two
  of people complaining about the same            weeks, we had done a partnership.
  thing so we should respond quickly?                “So, this is just magic. when you understand that, of course
  Imagine what it would be like to try to do      you share and you focus a lot on that because it’s just much
  that with index cards and physical mail.”       more powerful than anything else.”

  Paul Graham                                     Loic Le Meur
  Co-founder of Y Combinator                      CEO of Seesmic                                                     index

  5 Graham’s firm has funded more than            5 Seesmic helps users organize access to social networking
  140 early-stage startups, most of them          apps. Le meur has been named one of the 25 most influential         31
  web-related.                                    people on the Web by BusinessWeek.
                                                                                                                     73
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ON Magazine: The Web at 20

  • 1. special issue Number 4, 2009 IN THIS ISSUE Q&A: Bob Metcalfe Chris Brogan The past and future ofl the Web, networking, l John Seely Brown and energy l Jim Champy l Jeff Clavier l Dave Cullinane life in information l Steve Duplessie l Rob Enderle Laura Fitton Tim Berners- l Seth Godin Lee on his l l Paul Graham world-changing l Guy Kawasaki invention l Paul Kedrosky l Loic Le Meur l Dany Levy Sanjay Mirchandani 20 l l Craig Newmark The Web at l l l l Jeff Nick Jakob Nielsen Andrew Odlyzko Tim O’Reilly l Jeremiah Owyang l Howard Rheingold l Steve Rubel l Paul Saffo l Dave Sifry l David Vellante webb chaPPell Jimmy Wales l 3
  • 2. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| john GoodMan Celebrating the beautiful mind w About 10 minutes into the process of editing my colleague Gil Press’s fascinating interview with bob Metcalfe—the legendary co-creator of the ethernet standard and founder of 3com—I was struck by a revelation. This issue of ON is not only a celebration of the web’s 20th anniversary. It is also a celebration of “the beautiful minds,” which, collectively, created the transformational technologies that now permeate our daily lives: the world wide web itself; the network and Internet technologies that form its foundation; and the ever-expanding constellation of apps, services, and devices that utilize the web as a global platform for communications and computing. There at the Creation If you read nothing else in this issue, I encourage you to read the Metcalfe interview and the Q&a with Sir Tim berners- lee, whose genius it was to define the “three adequate standards” (Metcalfe’s words) that are the basis of the web and account for its astonishing flexibility, longevity, and ubiquity. with birth 2 dates that bracket the first half of the % 73
  • 3. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Celebrating the beautiful mind [Continued] baby boom generation, these two men are the (wikipedia), dany levy (dailycandy), and Tim technology equivalent of first-generation rock o’Reilly (o’Reilly Media), and they were all asked stars. Their observations and insights on the the same three questions: genesis and evolution of the web shine with the • How has the Web changed your life? authenticity and intellectual wattage of those who • How has the Web changed business and society? not only were “there at the creation,” but also • What do you think the Web will look like in 20 helped spark the creation. years? Future Focused equally important, they both characteristic of all beautiful minds, their re- remain deeply involved in exploring how the web sponses—which are excerpted throughout the can be harnessed to address some of the greatest issue—are wonderfully frank and varied, often un- challenges we face as a society. Metcalfe’s vision expected, and colored with flashes of humor and for increasing the efficiency of energy distribution self-revelation. Many share a genuine concern for by emulating certain core characteristics of the the two-edged nature of new technology, which Internet is compelling. berners-lee discusses how can always be used for good and evil alike. we can accelerate discovery and collaboration In addition to all these voices, this special issue on a large scale by freeing data from today’s of ON includes reflections and predictions from information “silos” and allowing it to be linked both regular and occasional contributors—jim together via the Semantic web. champy, Rob enderle, jeff nick, Sanjay Mirchan- dani, and Steve duplessie—and from correspon- But Wait! There’s More! In addition to dents specially enlisted to describe how the web publishing these full-length interviews, we asked is affecting life in ascendant economies and devel- regular columnists Tim devaney and Tom Stein oping countries in asia, africa, and latin america. to do “mini-interviews” with 20 members of the on this 20th anniversary of the web, there’s Inforati: the entrepreneurs and opinion makers much to celebrate and reflect on and anticipate. who have played a critical role in dragging us all and it’s all powered by the beautiful mind. tweeting, IMing, and YouTubing into this next stage of the Information age. Those interviewed Christine Kane 3 include craig newmark (craigslist), jimmy wales ONeditor@gmail.com 73
  • 4. 2 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Saffo, Paul ................................................28 Sifry, Dave ................................................20 Van Dam, Andy..................................61, 62 Vellante, David ...................................17-18 Wales, Jimmy .......................................... 27 Wells, H.G. ................................................ 61 Places Angola ....................................................... 41 Archive.org ..............................................64 Jin, Hai........................................................ 7 Argentina .................................................30 PeoPle Kahle, Brewster ......................................64 China ..................................................... 7, 27 Kawasaki, Guy ........................................... 6 DailyCandy.com ....................................... 5 Adams, Douglas......................................... 6 Kedrosky, Paul ......................................... 53 Gutenberg.org .........................................62 Battelle, John ..........................................28 Le Meur, Loic........................................... 31 India ....................................................34-35 Berners-Lee, Tim ...........9, 21-26, 28, 59, Levy, Dany .................................................. 5 Mauritius ...........................................46-47 62, 63, 64 Licklider, J.C.R..................................49, 61 Namibia ..............................................38-39 Brogan, Chris ........................................... 16 Massing, Michael ..................................... 6 Twitter.com ....................10, 15, 31, 43, 53 Brown, John Seely .................................20 Metcalfe, Bob ................................8-14, 59 Venezuela ................................................. 56 Bush, Vannevar .......................... 28, 61, 62 Mirchandani, Sanjay .......................36-37 Well.com ........................................... 29, 62 Champy, Jim ................................51-52, 65 Nelson, Ted .............................................. 61 Clavier, Jeff ..............................................40 Newmark, Craig ...................................... 15 Cullinane, Dave.................................54-55 Ng, Frederic .......................................46-47 PersPectives Duplessie, Steve............................... 42-43 Nick, Jeff ............................................32-33 Dyson, Esther .......................................... 45 Nielsen, Jakob......................................... 47 Cloud computing ............ 6, 32-33, 36-37, Enderle, Rob ......................................44-45 Odlyzko, Andrew ..............................48-50 48, 54-55, 58-60 Engelbart, Doug ............................... 49, 62 O’Reilly, Tim ............................................ 19 Cross-references .................................... 61 Fitton, Laura ............................................40 Owyang, Jeremiah ................................. 53 Future Web .............. 19, 21-26, 27, 44-45 Fry, Jason ................................................. 57 Raj, Vidya ...........................................34-35 Hypertext/hypermedia ........... 61, 62, 63 Godin, Seth ................................................ 5 Recchimuzzi, Hugo ................................ 41 Mobile Web.............................. 6, 17-18, 19 Graham, Paul ........................................... 31 Rheingold, Howard ................................29 Semantic Web ................. 5, 21-26, 32-33 Grillet, Fran ............................................. 56 Rubel, Steve ............................................. 16 Serendipity ..........................................9, 49 Iavarone, Hugo........................................30 Rusch, Rainer ....................................38-39 Traditional journalism/media 5, 15, 53 4 WEB TIME LINE % Page 61 73
  • 5. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| dUMB aNd dUMBEr “The web is impossibly stupid. It’s ar- the end of Print? chaic. It doesn’t do one percent of what it Dany Levy ought to. It’s basically taking a model of a Founder and editorial director of DailyCandy card catalogue and a few other items and 5 A lifestyle e-mail newsletter with a focus on style, food, slapping electronics on top of it. I think and fashion, DailyCandy has three million subscribers for that the active web, which I’ve blogged its 28 editions. about calling web 4, is a web that actu- ally knows who I am and who I know and “I’m ambivalent about the demise leverages those connections on my be- of print journalism. It’s a great op- half. It will speak up when I want it to and portunity for dailycandy, but at the be quiet when I don’t. It’ll help me navi- same time—being a little bit of an gate people. old-school girl—I really like having “a simple example is when I’m at a something in my hands. I like read- trade show and run into somebody, the ing a book. I like reading a news- web ought to tell me when I last saw paper. I like holding a magazine. I them. It ought to tell me that six steps think that it’s about the anticipa- behind me is somebody I went to college tion of waiting for the next issue to with. It ought to tell me that the booth I’m come out and be on your doorstep, passing by sells [product] for three per- and the thrill of getting it in your adaM MccauleY cent more than the booth down the hall, hands. so I shouldn’t even bother sticking my “It’s the same thing with search- head in there. The web knows all these ing for a record in a record store. I things. It’s just not good at telling me.” remember, back in the day, having to stupidly sing a song to the guy behind the counter trying to Seth Godin figure out who the musician was. now you just type in a lyric, Author and entrepreneur and you can find it like that. 5 Godin is the best-selling author of “with the web, everything comes so easily. I wonder about index 10 books about marketing and work the future and the human ability to research and to seek and including Tribes, The Dip, and to find, which is a really important skill. I wonder, will human 5 All Marketers are Liars. beings lose their ability to navigate?” 73
  • 6. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| extra! extra! HoLograpHIc ME “The practice of journalism, “with the web, far from being leeched by I’ve become a the web, is being reinvented lot more digital. there, with a variety of fas- So as the years cinating experiments in the have gone by, gathering, presentation, and I have gone delivery of news.” from three or —Michael Massing four meetings a day to zero meetings per day. everything is phone calls, e-mails, Skype, and this kind of stuff. cisco has TelePresence technology that makes it (r)evolution look like you’re all in a board room, sitting around the table; they also have a thing “First we thought the where they do Star Wars-like Princess lea Pc was a calculator. holograms. That’s my perfect world, when Then we found out how I can make a keynote speech in Mumbai to turn numbers into via hologram. Truly the best will be when letters with aScII—and there is a 3-d hologram of Guy giving a we thought it was a speech. You can pass your hand through typewriter. Then we him. That’s the ultimate.” discovered graph- ics, and we thought it Guy Kawasaki was a television. with Founder of Garage Technology the world wide web, Ventures and co-founder of Alltop. index we’ve realized it’s a 5 Kawasaki describes himself as “a fire- brochure.” hose that answers the question: What’s 6 —Douglas Adams interesting?” 73
  • 7. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ConneCting education and research in The chinaGrid, which started with 12 universi- Google Gmail, Google doc, and Google Scholar. China ties and has extended to more than 40 currently, is The web is also an important tool for me to do my research. The the largest grid-computing first time I used it was in 1996, platform in china. It lets while I was a visiting scholar in users share some 2,000 Germany. It gave me a window to different elite courses explore all the research materials I among all the disciplines needed. nowadays, I spend about and universities via a six hours a day on the web to do world wide web portal. my research. chinaGrid partners are with the continued emergence connected through a com- of cloud computing, the Internet mon virtual hub that links will play even more important roles them to the appropriate in all areas of people’s daily lives application resources— in the future. Mobile devices and By Professor Hai Jin from life sciences research to video smart phones will transform web b The world wide web has become courses and e-learning. an important unifying force for edu- The Internet has impacted my technology, making it ubiquitous. cation and research across china. country in many other ways as profESSor HaI JIN is dean of the School of In 2002, china’s Ministry of edu- well. chinese society now heavily Computer Science and Technology cation launched the china educa- depends on the web in all areas, at Huazhong university of Science tion and Research Grid project, a including news online, streaming and Technology, Wuhan, China, grid-computing platform, which video, e-business, e-education, and where he also serves as director of index enables universities across the online gaming. especially in the the Cluster and Grid Computing country to collaborate on research, cloud computing area, most activi- Lab and the Services Computing 7 scientific, and education projects. ties are now on the web, such as Technology and System Lab. 73
  • 8. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| bob metcalfe has been involved—as a direct catalyst or a prominent observer—in a number of key milestones spanning the evolution of the IT industry: the birth of the Internet, the invention of Ethernet and local area networks, and the rapid adoption of the World Wide Web as the platform for linking information and people. Today, as a part- ner in Polaris Ventures, he invests in clean, low-cost energy solutions. % from ethernet to enernet: BoB Metcalfe on standards, serendiPity, and stUBs christian northeast index 8 73
  • 9. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| metCalfe [Continued] in the 20 years since the invention of the World Wide WeB, � The Web demonstrates how powerful [its architecture] is, both by being layered on top of things that were invented 17 years before, and giving rise to amazing new functions in the following decades.” What has sUrPrised yoU most? That’s the surprise. what this What has been a bob metcalfe: Tim berners- has demonstrated is the efficacy disappointment in the lee invented the uRl, hTTP, of the layered architecture of the context of the World Wide and hTMl standards. none of Internet. The web demonstrates Web—something you them is particularly impressive; how powerful that is, both by be- expected that didn’t pan out? so many high-tech people have ing layered on top of things that There’s no room for that. The found them to be in some way were invented 17 years before web has been so successful, deficient. but Tim came up with and by giving rise to amazing there’s nothing disappointing three adequate standards that, new functions in the following about it. Tim berners-lee tells when used together, ignited the decades. based on the artfulness this joke, which I hasten to retell explosive growth of the web. The of the design of the interfaces, because it’s so good. he was power of good standards is they you give rise to serendipity. introduced at a conference as leave you with no options. as In the design of his standards, the inventor of the world wide we used to say about ethernet, Tim nailed down both expres- web. as often happens when “anything which is not prohibited sive power and simplicity, allow- someone is introduced that way, is mandatory.” ing people to easily get started. there are at least three people Think about that. we designed It’s those three standards, plus in the audience who want to some plumbing at the lower lev- Mosaic, which added visual and fight about that, because they els of the hierarchy, and 17 years graphical veneer, plus the evan- invented it or a friend of theirs index later, Tim comes up with the gelical verve of Tim berners-lee invented it. Someone said, “You world wide web, which ether- himself, that were probably all didn’t. You can’t have invented it. 9 net and TcP/IP carried just fine. pivotal in that early takeoff. There’s just not enough time in % 73
  • 10. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| metCalfe [Continued] the day for you to have typed in funeral at a time. These people was when I tweeted the fact all that information.” That poor had to die. There was no way of that 111,111 squared equals schlemiel completely missed the changing their minds. So, I un- 12,345,678,987,654,321. Then point that Tim didn’t create the derstand generational ossifica- I noticed that in a lot of the re- world wide web. he created tion. when my partner accused tweets there was a tag that I was the mechanism by which many, me of it, I decided to participate unaware of: number sign, nerd many people could create the in this phenomenon so as to bet- porn—this particular fact was world wide web. ter understand it. considered nerd porn. I’m beginning to find uses for And the mechanism to Twitter. by tweeting my weight, In the early 1990s, you connect not only informa- I have involved my followers in argued in an InfoWorld tion, as was his original a support group to help me lose column against wireless vision, but now also weight. Knowing that I’m going computing, advising readers connecting people with Web to be tweeting my weight bears to “wire up your homes and 2.0 applications. You recently on my behavior. So there’s one stay there.” started to use Twitter. Why? application—the support group let’s divide that into two discus- I’m using Twitter because one application. sions. I think that “wire up your of my partners, Mike hirshland, My daughter is about to gradu- home and stay there” is truer accused me of having a genera- ate from college, and she’s look- than ever. we’re at a time now tional problem. Young, hip people ing for a job. I have tweeted this where energy conservation is use social networks, and old farts fact, and I’m actually getting the next big thing, and one of don’t. inquiries about my daughter the opportunities we have is the I used to be on the other side. from people who might want to substitution of communication I was helping to introduce lans see her résumé. So, that’s the job for transportation. when there were all these old search application. but you ask about one of my farts who thought that punch- one of my hobbies is math regrettable columns. In the index cards were the way you did puzzles, and I tweet them now early 1990s, there was a wireless computing. The joke was that and then. The most response bubble. There were a bunch of 10 ethernet would be adopted one I’ve ever gotten on Twitter companies touting their modems % 73
  • 11. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| metCalfe [Continued] and wireless mobility. but the that’s not nearly as interesting as people a rationale for building modems didn’t work very well, these hyperbolic comments. bigger ethernets. I drew a picture and they were bigger than the I would like to point out that that put the three-node network computers. I said that wireless there is a figure of speech called below a critical-mass point, ar- mobile Pcs would be like porta- hyperbole. It’s a Greek word. It’s guing that you needed to get to potties: Porta-potties are good been around for a long time, so I some higher number to achieve and useful things, but as a gen- offer it in defense of some of my critical mass. That was the dia- eral rule, the bathrooms that we hyperbolic columns. gram that I gave to George Gilder use have pipes. So yes, there will in 1993. he called it “Metcalfe’s be some wireless computers, but Around the same time, law,” for which I’m grateful. The mostly we’ll use pipes because George Gilder coined the value of the network grows as pipes have so much more capac- term “Metcalfe’s Law” to n-squared—“n” being the num- ity. I was right about it in 1993: describe your idea that ber of machines connected to the That bubble burst, and all those bigger networks are better. network. mobile wireless companies went In the context of the layered away. architecture of the Internet, Networking PCs was a novel I went on to say in my column don’t you think one can apply idea at the time. So what did that wireless computing will “Metcalfe’s Law” to the layer you tell people they could do never be important. That’s where of networking computers with the network? I went wrong, because along (the Internet), the layer of when ethernet first came came wi-Fi. when I was writ- linking information (the out, our sales proposition was ing my column, I was often torn Web), and finally, the layer of PFMTS—Print, File, Mail, Termi- between being right and being in- connecting people (Web 2.0)? nal, Stubs. teresting. Many columnists make That’s a great point. I’d never You may remember the IbM the mistake of trying too hard to thought of it that way. It wasn’t Pc XT that came out in 1982. It be interesting. You use various even called Metcalfe’s law when had a 10-megabyte disk on it. no index forms of hyperbole, like “There I first used it. It was a slide in a one could imagine what you’d do will never be anything like this.” 3com sales presentation. The with 10 megabytes on your disk. 11 well, maybe there will be. but goal of the slide was to give So the idea that you might want % 73
  • 12. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| metCalfe [Continued] � I’m using Twitter because one of my partners ... accused me of having a generational problem. Young, hip people use social net- works, and old farts don’t,” says Metcalfe, pictured here atop Mount Kilimanjaro. index 12 % 73
  • 13. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| metCalfe [Continued] to buy one Pc with a 10-mega- have a dumb terminal on their about nowadays: Energy or byte disk on it, and then share it desk, and then they would have what you call the Enernet. over the lan with cheaper disk- a Pc on their desk. That didn’t I’ve been on this Internet speak- less Pcs, had traction. The same make any sense. So you’d just ing tour, a two-year book tour thinking applied to laser printers write software that allowed your without a book. I felt I had a valu- that were new and expensive. So Pc to be a dumb terminal so you able contribution to make, look- share the printer, share the disk. could access the minicomputer ing at how we built the Internet I like to think about it as shift- or the mainframe. and extracting the lessons from ing gears. The second gear was Stubs were the aPIs for ac- that, and then applying them to lan e-mail. The big e-mail car- cessing the underlying network- energy so we could solve energy riers of the time, like aol and ing functionality, opening con- problems sooner, better, faster. McI, didn’t consider it e-mail, nections, closing connections, I think there are a lot of lessons because my e-mails never left etc. This is the serendipity idea to be learned, such as the value the building. but already in the again. one such new idea came of decentralization, designing for early days of the Internet, we from novell, which used the abundance, or over-reliance on observed heavy e-mail traffic be- stubs to share access—not to a washington. tween Internet nodes within the file, but to a database. This led I used to defend that analogy. same building. we called it “in- to the first use of multi-user ac- I’ve now come full circle: I believe cestuous traffic”; it was surpris- counting systems that ran on top that energy is the Internet’s next ing, even embarrassing, because of the lan. That’s how netware killer app. we did mail, we did Internet e-mail was originally got its foothold and eventually telephone, we did commerce, we conceived for long-distance com- blew past 3com’s operating sys- did publishing, we did newspa- munications. tem. pers (we’re about to kill newspa- T stood for terminal. There pers), and now we, the Internet, were all these minicomputers You have been drawing are going to solve energy. For and mainframes still around in interesting analogies example, they talk about a smart index those days. You couldn’t throw from your experience with grid. a smart grid is a bunch of them out, and all of them had Ethernet and the Internet to folks out there who want to build 13 dumb terminals. People would what you invest in and speak new networks to solve energy % 73
  • 14. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| metCalfe [Continued] and they call it the smart grid. what’s more, the other thing to deal with: video, mobile, and but instead of building an entirely we did to telecom is we added embedded. on the other axis are new network, another silo, why storage. The original Internet had the next three societal applica- not use the Internet as the con- no storage in it. Then these ge- tions that the web has to solve: trol plane for the smart grid? niuses came up with the packet energy, healthcare, and educa- but it’s even deeper than that. switch, with core memory for tion. I look in each of those nine That is, the very structure of the storing packets. Then we added boxes for companies, opportuni- energy network— the actual disks to our computers. If you ties, and progress. transmission and distribution— look at the Internet now, there Those three kinds of traffic needs to be like the Internet. So, is storage everywhere. So we’re have started arriving, but we it needs to be de-synchronized. going to “storify” the energy have a long way to go. Video is Right now, to put energy on the network. Right now, they have brand new on the Internet, as far grid, you need to synchronize no place to put energy, so when as I’m concerned. The mobile frequency and phase to get onto they have excess energy, they Internet has arrived, but it’s still it because it clicks with this don’t know what to do with it. happening. Then there’s embed- 60-hertz centralized clock. also, if renewables such as solar ded traffic. Ten billion microcon- what the Internet did for com- and wind are going to play any trollers are shipped every year, munications was to take the role, you need storage. I think and only a tiny fraction of those clock out and put the clock in storage is going to be big in this are networked. Then there are the packet so there wasn’t a big new energy network we have to the three new killer apps—en- global ticking clock. I sent you build. ergy, healthcare, and educa- the clock, and you were able to tion—just sitting there. The web tick the bits at the rate that I told What will the Web look like or has got to solve all three of those you to, so we de-synchronized should look like in 20 years? problems. the net. we will end up de-syn- Thinking about the future of the what will the web look like in chronizing the power switching web or the Internet, I came up 20 or 30 years? It will be com- index network and end up with power with a three-by-three matrix. fortable with those three new packet switching, like the Inter- on one axis are the three new modes of traffic, and it will be 14 net. kinds of traffic that the web has solving those three problems. p 73
  • 15. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| this i believe pay aS yoU rEad? while 68 percent of the pub- lishers responding to a 2009 survey sponsored by the amer- ican Press Institute said they thought readers who objected to paying for online content would have a difficult time replacing the information they get from newspaper websites, 52 percent of readers said it would be either “very easy” or “somewhat easy” to do so. adaM MccauleY afghanistan, support for serious peace between Israel and the Palestinians, and, most importantly, the transforma- tion of american government. “There are now tools like 311 that allow people to get Craig Newmark everyday government things done, like getting a pothole Founder of Craigslist fixed or the garbage removed. More abstractly, people are 5 Through his personal blog, social networking experimenting with how to use the web to get ordinary channels, and speaking activities, Newmark uses citizens involved in the creation of government policy. The the Web as a platform to support social causes idea is to complement our system of representative de- important to him. mocracy with a system of online grassroots democracy. “Mostly what I do to participate is chat with people in “Personally speaking, the web allows me to con- washington and then spread word of these new experi- index nect to a lot of people in a lot of ways, frequently ments through the social media. So, I use Twitter. I use social but also involving things that I believe in: Facebook. I’m just one guy helping out. we need a lot 15 for example, support for veterans of Iraq and more, but it’s happening.” 73
  • 16. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| gENIE EScapES BoTTLE Jumping the Gate “I think the defin- “one impact of the web is it allows you to gate jump, which is ing moment for me an expression my co-author julien Smith and I use a lot: gate came in 2004 to jumpers versus gatekeepers. we look at the web as this set 2005 when I was of tools that allow people to try any idea without a whole lot doing traditional of expense but with the op- public relations. portunity to let your passion I had started to come first. The example that blog—blogs were we use is Perezhilton.com, just emerging; they which is a pop culture site weren’t in every niche yet—and I decided where essentially he says to do a fun experiment. I said, ‘I bet I can mean things about stars all stay up to date on sports and politics and day long. tech and national news by just reading “he had approached blogs and nothing else. I won’t read any People magazine to work traditional media or watch any TV. I won’t there, and a lot of the lesser even look at the ticker in Times Square.’ pop magazines, and they I said, ‘let’s try this for a week, and you said, ‘no, not really.’ now give me a current events quiz at the end, he’s handing them their hat and let’s see if I get a passing grade,’ as far as web traffic on any which I did. It actually made national day, and he’s got a much smaller operation. So, one of the news. after that, there was no putting the things I say is he makes by far more revenue per employee genie back in the bottle. I wasn’t going to than any of those people because he only has like six employ- do traditional media relations anymore.” ees. The web does that all the time. anyone can start any- thing with very little money, and then it’s just a meritocracy in Steve Rubel terms of winning the attention wars.” SVP, director of Insights for Edelman Digital Chris Brogan index 5 Through his Steve rubel Lifestream President, New Marketing Labs site, rubel comments on emerging 5 brogan is a social media expert and co-author of the best- 16 technologies and trends. selling book Trust Agents. 73
  • 17. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| make better decisions. I left Idc in 1999 near the peak of the Internet bubble. I felt like a latecomer to the software startup game, and things were moving very fast. netscape (as we knew it) had come and gone, aol was the granddaddy of the Internet, and Yahoo was about to buy broadcast.com—a firm with a $50 million revenue run rate—for nearly $6 billion. web software at the time was plagued by performance and quality problems, but these were largely overlooked because of the access and version-control benefits users received. no dot-Com, no Money adaM MccauleY we set out to stake our claim with a plan to build lessons learned launching enterprise software to analyze IT portfolios and improve the performance of technology invest- ments. we needed money, and Vcs seemed a logical route. So we wrote a business plan and two WWW-era started shopping it. The only thing the Vcs startups wanted to know was, “how are you a dot-com?” unfortunately, we didn’t have a good answer, and By David Vellante while we received some term sheets, we passed. This is the story of how my colleagues and I started This was 1999, and we were not to be stopped. two companies in the web era with virtually no out- In a few months, we raised more than $2 million side money. over the 10-year period in which we built from prospective customers, without giving up index these companies, we witnessed a dramatic evolution a dime in equity. (Sometimes I miss 1999!) our in software development that drove us to apply two mindset was a bit different than “build it and 17 completely different strategies to help IT managers they will come.” It was more like “Make the sale % 73
  • 18. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| lessons learned [Continued] and then design, build, test, and port its many millions of users. we are constant reminders of the need ship the software.” we had initial knew the software scaled. also, it for speed. product shipping within six months, had many features that allowed us It’s been amazing to watch the and over the next several years, we to track changes in real time, col- evolution of software since 1999. I spent many millions of dollars per- laborate with users, and manage realize, however, that much more fecting the software and making it content versions. It was incredibly will be done in the next 10 years. powerful, and the code was avail- scale into an enterprise suite called The online and physical worlds will Precision IQ. we considered our- able for free. The “V8 moment” for begin to collide as millions of mo- selves a capital-efficient business us was that once we’d settled on bile devices provide inputs to the and were very proud of our techni- Mediawiki, inside of a day and for web. Further, the web’s collective cal achievements and the excellent less than $5, we had a fully func- intelligence will be harnessed by client base we’d built. tioning version of the software, software that provides context to a Fast forward to 2006. we re- customized for our new commu- user base with an insatiable ap- examined the technology research nity. wikibon was born. petite for information. expect the business and began envisioning From this experience, we learned pace of development to be non- models like wikipedia and Face- two major lessons about the power linear as the number of sensors book applied to the analyst busi- of the web-based open source on the web increases by orders of ness. we saw the confluence of model: magnitude. software technology, community Instead of writing a business Sometimes I’m not sure if I expertise, and content, and we plan, you can very quickly deploy a should be excited or scared. but thought the time had come for product and launch a business. The one thing’s for certain: I don’t want peers to interact and assist each business itself is the initial plan. to miss the ride. other in making better technology Software development is no lon- decisions. ger a barrier to entry for entrepre- davId vELLaNTE spent 15 years at IDC, neurs like us, but speed is. compe- was the CeO of two startups, and is Wiki World tition has been popping up in many a founder of The Wikibon Project, a index In early 2007, we decided to deploy forms, which is good confirmation community of business technology Mediawiki, the same open source that we’re on to something. but it practitioners. He can be reached on 18 software used by wikipedia to sup- brings challenges and threats that Twitter at @dvellante. 73
  • 19. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| device driven Tim O’Reilly Founder of O’Reilly Media 5 An early evangelist for the Web, O’reilly published The Whole Internet Users Guide & Catalog, which the New York Public Library named as one of the most significant books of the 20th century. “This next stage of the web is be- it says, ‘There’s a tube station in ing driven by devices other than four blocks.’ Point it down another computers. our phones now have street and it says, ‘There’s a tube six or seven senses. The applica- station in 12 blocks.’ everybody tions that are coming will take thinks it’s recognizing the street. data from our devices and the In fact, it has GPS and a compass. data that is being built up in these what it’s recognizing is where big user-contributed databases you are and in what direction your and mash them together in new camera is pointing. kinds of services. “Google knows where you are “There is a program where you because the phone has a report- can hold up your phone to the ing app. They know where you’re radio and identify the song you’re going because it’s your next ap- listening to. That’s a sensor that pointment in your calendar. It’s you’re carrying around with you. able to recognize your voice be- You can sign up for something cause it has a microphone—ears called the Quake catcher network, which uses a for the application—and it has speech recognition. distributed network of motion sensors that already You say, ‘Take me to my next appointment,’ and bang! exists in phones and laptops to detect earthquakes. It is these cooperating databases and cooperating index There is an augmented-reality app called nearest sensors that will enable augmented reality. I think Tube that is put out by a company in london. You real-time translation is something that Google is very 19 hold up your phone and point it down one street and much working on.” 73
  • 20. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| A New Kind of Intellectual SpINaL Tap Infrastructure “we’re going to see some really inter- “In many ways, looking at how an idea unfolds through time esting applications gives you a much better sense of what that idea really is. based around the For people who are interested in always being on the edge fact that every single of whatever their topic is, they have to be able to reach out one of us right now is to understand what the current thinking is and to partici- walking around with pate in discussions and development of those ideas. a pretty fascinat- “when I ran Xerox PaRc, I had access to one of the ing platform we call world’s best intellectual infrastructures: 250 research- the cell phone. It’s a ers, probably another 50 craftspeople, and six reference mobile computer that does voice input, that librarians, all in the same building. Then one day to go cold does voice and sound output, that can take turkey—when I did my first retirement—was a complete video, that has GPS and a compass on it, shock. but with the web, in a year or two, I had managed and that is connected to the Internet. to hone a new kind of intellectual infrastructure that in “when I start thinking 20 years out or many ways matched what I already had. That’s obviously even further, I can’t wait to get that implant the power of the web, the power to connect and interact in the back of my spine that just plugs that at a distance. It gives you the ability to peer into embryonic platform directly into your nervous system, ideas and watch or participate in their development, which maybe over the optic nerve. Think about is such a powerful way to really understand the structure of the opportunity and the level of connected- the idea.” ness and the amount that we’ll be able to $ !! $ !! $ !! do when you even get rid of the computer as part of the interface and get all this in- put and output directly into your biological John Seely Brown systems.” Self-described “chief of confusion” 5 The former chief scientist of Xerox Corporation, brown Dave Sifry index thinks, speaks, and writes on topics that include the man- 5 Sifry is a software entrepreneur and agement of radical innovation, digital youth culture, and blogosphere icon. He founded Technorati, a 20 new forms of communication and learning. leading blog search engine. 73
  • 21. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| In 1989, while a fellow at CERN, the European Particle Physics Laboratory in Geneva, Switzerland, Tim berners-Lee invented the World Wide Web. Today, he is 3Com Founders Professor of Engi- neering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), where he serves as director of the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C), an international standards body dedicated to leading the Web to its full potential. Sir Tim is the author of Weaving the Web. Jason Rubin spoke with him at his office in Cambridge, Massachusetts. % from the webb chaPPell Web of doCuments to the Web of data: tiM Berners-lee on the fUtUre of his invention 73 index 21
  • 22. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| berners-lee [Continued] tWenty years on, � I believe that 20 years from now, people will look back at where we are today as being a time when the Web of the World Wide WeB documents was fairly well established. ... The Web of has Proven itself data, though, which we call the Semantic Web, would be seen as just starting to take off.” Both UBiqUitoUs and indisPensiBle. we should realize that, and we are still fairly “pre-web.” Social did yoU anticiPate are constantly changing it, and networking sites, for example, it WoUld reach this it’s very important that we do so. I believe that 20 years from are still siloed; you can’t share your information from one site statUs, and in this now, people will look back at where we are today as being a with a contact on another site. hopefully, in a few years’ time, time frame? time when the web of docu- we’ll see that quite large cat- tim berners-lee: I think while ments was fairly well established, egory of social information truly it’s very tempting for us to look such that if someone wanted web-ized, rather than being held at the web and say, “well, here it to find a document, there’s a in individual lockdown applica- is, and this is what it is,” it has, of pretty good chance it could be tions. course, been constantly growing found on the web. The web of and changing—and it will con- data, though, which we call the You mentioned a “small tinue to do so. So to think of this Semantic web, would be seen community” of people who as a static “This is how the web as just starting to take off. we see the value of the Semantic is” sort of thing is, I think, unwise. have the standards but still just Web. Is that a repeat In fact, it’s changed in the last a small community of true be- occurrence of the struggle few years faster than it changed lievers who recognize the value 20 years ago to get people to before, and it’s crazy for us to of putting data on the web for understand the scope and index imagine this acceleration will people to share and mash up and potential impact of the World suddenly stop. So yes, the 20- use at will. and there are other Wide Web? 22 year point goes by in a flash, but aspects of the online world that It’s remarkably similar. It’s very % 73
  • 23. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| berners-lee [Continued] funny. You’d think that once it become tremendously fired of people is really important. people had seen the effect of up. once somebody has real- when you get people who are web-izing documents to pro- ized what it would be like to have trying to solve big problems like duce the world wide web, linked data across the world, curing aIdS, fighting cancer, and doing likewise with their data then they become very enthusi- understanding alzheimer’s dis- would seem the next logical step. astic, and so we now have this ease, there are a huge number of but for one thing, the web was a corps of people in many coun- people involved, all of them with paradigm shift. a paradigm shift tries all working together to make half-formed ideas in their minds. is when you don’t have in your it happen. how do we get them communi- vocabulary the concepts and the cating so that the half of an idea ideas with which to understand Do you see the Semantic in one person’s head will connect the new world. Today, the idea Web as enabling greater with half of an idea in somebody that a web link could connect to collaboration between and else’s head, and they’ll come up a document that originates any- among parties, as opposed to with the solution? where on the planet is complete- the point-to-point or point- That’s been a goal for the web ly second nature, but back then to-many communication of documents, and it’s certainly a it took a very strong imagination that seems more prevalent in goal for the web of data, where for somebody to understand it. the current Web? different pieces of data can be now, with data, almost all the The original web browser was a used for all kinds of different data you come across is locked browser editor and it was sup- things. For example, a genomist in a database. The idea that you posed to be a collaborative tool, may suspect that a particular could access and combine data but it only ran on the neXT work- protein is connected to a certain anywhere in the world and im- station on which it was devel- syndrome in a cell line, search mediately make it part of your oped. however, the idea that the for and find data relating to each spreadsheet is another paradigm web should be a collaborative area, and then suddenly put index shift. It’s difficult to get people place has always been a very together the different strains of to buy into it. but in the same important goal for me. I think data and discover something 23 way as before, those who do get harnessing the creative energy new. and this is something he % 73
  • 24. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| berners-lee [Continued] can do with the owners of the webb chaPPell respective pieces of data, who might never have found each other or known that their data was connected. So the web of data will absolutely lead to great- er collaboration. Is your vision of the Semantic Web one in which data is freely available, or are there access rights attached to it? a lot of information is already public, so one of the simple things to do in building the new web of data is to start with that information. and recently, I’ve been working with both the u.K. government and the u.S. govern- ment in trying not only to get more information on the web, but also to make it linked data. but it’s also very important that systems are aware of the social aspects of data. and it’s not just index access control, because an au- thorized user can still use the 24 right data for the wrong purpose. % 73
  • 25. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| berners-lee [Continued] So we need to focus on what are facturing schedule to meet our gerous, or when an ecological the purposes for accessing dif- demand. however, we do not catastrophe happened. we can ferent kinds of data, and for that license you to use it to give to then identify patterns in a broad we’ve been looking at account- our competition to modify their range of data types that resulted able systems. pricing.” in something serious happening, accountable systems are You need to be able to ask and that will allow us to identify aware of the appropriate use of the system to show you just the when these patterns recur, and data, and they allow you to make data that you can use for a given we’ll be better able to prepare for sure that certain kinds of infor- task because how you wish to or prevent the situation. mation that you are comfortable use it will be the difference in I think when we have a lot of sharing with people in a social whether you can use it. So we data available on the web about context, for example, are not able need systems for recording what the world, including social data, to be accessed and considered the appropriate use of data is, ecological data, meteorological by people looking to hire you. For and we need systems for helping data, and financial data, we’ll be example, I have a GPS trail that people use data in an appropriate able to make much better mod- I took on vacation. certainly, I way so they can meet an ethical els. It’s been quite evident over want to give it to my friends and standard. the last year, for example, that my family, but I don’t necessar- we have a really bad grasp of ily wish to license people I don’t Ultimately, what is one of the the financial system. Part of the know who are curious about me most significant things the reason for that might be that we and my work and let them see Semantic Web will enable? have insufficient data from which where I’ve been. companies may one thing I think we’ll be able to draw conclusions, or that the want to do the same thing. They to do is to write intelligent pro- experts are too selective in which might say, “we’re going to give grams that run across the web data they use. The more data you access to certain product of data looking for patterns when we have, the more accurate our index information because you’re part something went wrong—like models will be. of our supply chain and you can when a company failed, or when 25 use it to fine-tune your manu- a product turned out to be dan- After 20 years, what is it % 73
  • 26. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| berners-lee [Continued] about the Web—either because there is no common from the mundane to the about its current or future format for this data to become grotesque. Do you think capabilities—that excites integrated into my devices. humanity is using this you the most? now, the vision of Semantic incredible invention of yours one of the things that gets me web is that the seminar’s web appropriately? the most excited are the mash- page has information pointed at Yes. The web, after all, is just a ups, where there’s one market data about the event. So I just tool. It’s a powerful one, and it of people providing data and tell my computer I’m going to reconfigures what we can do, but there’s a second layer of people be attending that seminar and it’s just a tool, a piece of white mashing up the data, pick- then, automatically, there is a paper, if you will. So what you ing from a rich variety of data calendar that shows things that see on it reflects humanity—or at sources to create a useful new I’m attending. and automati- least the 20 percent of humanity application or service. a clas- cally, an address book I define that currently has access to the sic example of a mash-up is as having in it the people who web. when I find a seminar I want have given seminars that I’ve at- as a standards body, the w3c to go to, and the web page has tended within the last six months is not interested in policing the information about the sponsor, appears, with a link to the pre- web or in censoring content, nor the presenter, the topic, and the senter’s public profile. and auto- should we be. no one owns the logistics. I have to write all that matically, my Pda starts pointing world wide web, no one has a down on the back of an enve- towards somewhere I need to be copyright for it, and no one col- lope and then go and put it in my at an appropriate time to get me lects royalties from it. It belongs address book; I have to put it in there. all I need to do is say, “I’m to humanity, and when it comes my calendar; I have to enter the going to that seminar,” and then to humanity, I’m tremendously address in my GPS—basically, the rest should follow. optimistic. after 20 years, I’m I have to copy this information still very excited and extremely index into every device I use to man- The Web is such a mélange hopeful. p age my life, which is inefficient of useful, noble content and 26 and time-consuming. This is stuff that runs the gamut 73
  • 27. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Number 1 vIdEo vISIoN C millions of users “one of the things I would like to see in the future is large-scale, collaborative video projects. Imagine 300 what the expense would be with traditional meth- ods if you wanted to do a documentary film where C you go to 90 different countries and in each one, you do a one-minute clip asking a person on the street what they think of a certain question like, The number ‘what do you think of global warming?’ or, ‘what do of Internet you think about obama being elected?’ users in china “To get an interesting 90-minute film, you’d need jumped nearly 900 short videos because many of them won’t be 200 42 percent to that great. Then you have to translate them because C 298 million you’re talking to people in 60 or 70 languages. That by the end of would be an enormous undertaking. 2008 from “but with the web, a large community online the previous could easily make that happen. They get 10 or 20 year, according videos per country. They upload them all. The com- to the china munity starts working, finding the funny ones, the Internet touching ones, the thoughtful and serious ones— network because you want to have a mix. That’s just one C 100 Information example of something you couldn’t do in the tradi- center tional way but that you could do with a large com- (cnnIc), a munity online.” state-affiliated research group, Jimmy Wales making china Founder of Wikipedia the country 5 Wales is co-founder of Wikia, a consumer- index with the most publishing platform that enables communities to 0 Internet users in the world. create their own wikis around shared interests such as food, politics, and entertainment. C 27 73
  • 28. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| , W think big, think long X 8 9 “when data of any sort are Paul Saffo S placed in stor- Technology forecaster age, they are 5 Saffo explores technological change and its impact on busi- filed alpha- ness and society. He teaches at Stanford university and is a betically or visiting scholar in the Stanford media X research network. numerically, and informa- “The Internet indirectly came out tion is found (when it is) by tracing it of the space program, daRPa’s down from subclass to subclass. ... The research, and the whole climate human mind does not work that way. It of ‘anything’s possible,’ the moon operates by association. with one item shot, apollo, and all that. The In- in its grasp, it snaps instantly to the next ternet resulted from our going into that is suggested by the association of space, and the web came out of thoughts, in accordance with some intri- ceRn, which of course is concerned cate web of trails carried by the cells of with going in precisely the opposite the brain.” —Vannevar Bush, 1945 direction: into the very small, into the inner space of atoms. “The parallels for today are hugely important. aRPaneT and then the Internet took off because we had an environ- “What does it mean … to ment where people were allowed to think big and think long, become immortal through and to build things that nobody was sure would actually words pressed in clay—or take off. I love that story of when Tim [berners-lee] took his … through words formed proposal to his boss, who scribbled on it, ‘Sounds exciting, in bits and transferred though a little vague.’ but Tim was allowed to do it. over the Web? Is that “I’m alarmed because at this moment in time, I don’t think not what every person there are any institutions out there where people are still al- longs for—to die, but to be index lowed to think so big. while we celebrate the arrival of this known forever?” marvelous thing, the big question we should be asking our- —John Battelle 28 selves is, ‘are we stifling the creation of the future webs?’” 73
  • 29. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 35 yEarS of coNNEcTINg “I first started getting excited about groups of people legends, and hoaxes. Scurrilous political rumors are communicating socially in 1985, when I became in- believed, stupid things like ‘pass this e-mail along, and volved in the well, which I called a virtual communi- bill Gates will pay you $5.’ and, more seriously, people ty. It was based on the computer that cost about three with illnesses are getting great information but also quarters of a million dollars, and you had to get bad information. an expensive software license to run your “My personal challenge, what I’m work- own bbS. ing on for the next few years, is lit- “now, you probably carry 10,000 eracy. I’ve written about 21st century times that much computer power literacy, about attention literacy, in your pocket, with your iPhone about Twitter literacy, and about or blackberry. and you don’t crap detection 101. (and by the have to pay for any license. You way, it’s legit to use the term can start a Google group. You ‘crap detection.’ It’s a quote from can create a Meebo chat room hemingway.) People need to and drag it to a netvibes RSS ag- cultivate and understand how to gregator. all are free. who would deploy their attention, participa- have thought that all the knowl- tion, collaboration, ability to deter- edge in the world would be available mine the credibility of information, at your fingertips by asking a question and awareness of how to use networks. correctly to a search engine? we take It’s both a personal necessity and a re- these things for granted, but I’m still marveling at sponsibility to society.” it. “economically, politically, socially, and culturally, Howard Rheingold the web allows people to do things together that Writer and educator they weren’t able to do before. I think in the long run, 5 The author of Smart Mobs, The Virtual Commu- index that’s the most important thing. but I want to add one nity, and other books, rheingold writes, speaks, and caveat. I think we are in danger of drowning in a sea blogs on the social media classroom, cooperative com- 29 of misinformation, disinformation, spam, porn, urban munities, and other topics. 73
  • 30. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| the Web: a huge turn in our history net has revolutionized how we do business. capabilities. after having worked in the IT argentina back when GIRe was business for 23 years, I can’t imag- founded in 1991, our ine life without the Internet and files interchange con- the web. I rely on it for the news, sisted of 5 1/4-inch weather, social networks, business diskettes or tape reels. and pleasure trips, papers, forums, By Hugo A. Iavarone In 1994, we started to transmit blogs, college finals, the Tampa- b The world wide web has been a life-changing experience for my our files using bbS software with 19200-baud modems. This process laya’s height, renting cars, buying food, checking my bank account, company and for me personally. was slow and insecure. chatting with friends, finding the GIRe is an argentinean company when GIRe first started using the history of any civilization, checking specializing in solutions integration Internet in 1998, the transforma- the dollar and euro exchange rates, for commercial transactions that tion was really fantastic. we had no music, radio programs, checking involve cash flow and information congestion in the telephone lines. calories ingested, video viewing, with high security standards. a we were able to buy network cards and many other things. typical example of one of our key almost immediately as opposed I am truly convinced that my life solutions is the taxes and services to waiting for months. we shared has undergone a 180-degree transi- payment system, called Rapipago. experiences about configuration tion, in an amazing and extremely It offers a service that was provided problems and other technical solu- positive way. I am now able to in the past by financial institutions. tions with other users. understand why information is so GIRe’s customers span a wide later on, we added e-mail solu- vital for our lives, both at work and range of major industries and in- tions, practically replacing the use at home. clude telecommunications provid- of telephones and our paper index ers, credit card companies, and memos. This provided us with the HUgo a. IavaroNE is chief information banks. richest communication system in officer at GIre, buenos Aires, 30 over the past decade, the Inter- our history, including tracking Argentina. 73
  • 31. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| SHIp aNyWHErE “For businesses, that metaphor of the (global) Village boy information superhighway, tired as it is, “I was born in a village in the South turned out to be exactly right. Inventing of France. especially if you were things like railroads, canals, and high- in the countryside, you had few ways turned out to be good for people friends, maybe 10 or 20, whom you who make physical stuff because they hung out with. now I interact daily could move that stuff around. consum- with hundreds and sometimes ers don’t just have to buy stuff from the thousands of people. I have about local supplier. They can buy it from who- 30,000 followers on Twitter, 6,000 ever is best in their whole catchment on Facebook, and I get 1,000 piec- basin. The Internet has done that for es of feedback a day. information. You don’t just have to use “It has become for me and so whatever information is local. You can many other people the most important way to do anything. It ship information to anyone anywhere. ranges from twittering about a restaurant because you can’t “The key is to have the right filter. That decide which sushi bar is better, to buying a product or finding filter is often what startups make. So, a a job. startup making a cRM tool will enable “I organized a conference in Paris where we gathered 2,000 a business to filter the huge amount of people from many countries. I needed to partner with an air- interactions with customers and figure line company, so I posted a tweet, ‘does anybody know any- out: are there patterns? are a bunch one in air France?’ In two hours, I had a contact, and in two of people complaining about the same weeks, we had done a partnership. thing so we should respond quickly? “So, this is just magic. when you understand that, of course Imagine what it would be like to try to do you share and you focus a lot on that because it’s just much that with index cards and physical mail.” more powerful than anything else.” Paul Graham Loic Le Meur Co-founder of Y Combinator CEO of Seesmic index 5 Graham’s firm has funded more than 5 Seesmic helps users organize access to social networking 140 early-stage startups, most of them apps. Le meur has been named one of the 25 most influential 31 web-related. people on the Web by BusinessWeek. 73