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European Journal of Business and Management                                                    www.iiste.org
ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online)
Vol 4, No.3, 2012


 Total Factor Productivity Change of Ethiopian Microfinance
Institutions (MFIs): A Malmquist Productivity Index Approach
                            (MPI)
                                        Bereket Zerai Gebremichael
                PhD Candidate, Department of Commerce and Management studies, Andhra University,
                Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India - 530 003 Email bereketzg@yahoo.com
                                               D. Lalitha Rani
Professor of Marketing and Entrepreneurship, Department of Commerce and Management studies, Andhra
       University, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India - 530 003 Email mlalitha09@yahoo.co.in


Abstract
By employing the Malmquist productivity index this study attempts to examine the total factor productivity
change in the Ethiopian micro finance institutions (MFIs) using a balanced panel dataset of 114
observations from 19 micro finance institutions over the period 2004-2009. The selection of inputs and
outputs for the study is based on the dual objectives of MFIs viz outreach and sustainability framework
which is in line with the prior study of (Gutierrez   et al 2007, 2009). Consequently, we specify two inputs
and three outputs; the number of employees, and operating expenses are specified as inputs whereas the
outputs are interests and fee income, gross loan portfolio, and number of loans outstanding (number). The
result of the study indicated that over the period the malmquist productivity change experienced by the
micro finance industry as a whole has averaged 3.8 % annually. With the exception of the year 2004-2005
(slight decline in productivity, which was 0.2 percent) the micro finance industry has reported
productivity progress in the study period(i.e productivity rose of 5.5 percent, 5.8 percent,0.3 percent and 7.7
percent in the years 2005-2006, 2006-2007, 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 respectively. It is apparent from the
analysis that the main source of total factor productivity (TFP) growth for the MFIs was attributed to the
technical efficiency change(10.1 percent increase) as the result depicted that 16 out of 19 MFIs ( about
84 %) has shown improvement in technical efficiency changes. In contrast, only 5 out of 19 (26.3%)
MFIs have shown improvement in technological change but still the industry as a whole has exhibited a
decline in technological change (5.8 percent decrease over the period) and suggested that there has been a
deterioration in the performance of the best practicing micro finance institutions. Further the result showed
that pure technical efficiency increased by 8.9 percent while scale efficiency contributed on average 1.1
percent increase and hence suggested that during the study period the Ethiopian MFIs have experienced
mainly an increment of pure technical efficiency( improvement in management practices) rather than an
improvement in optimum size(scale efficiency change). Generally, an important implication for the
Ethiopian micro finance industry is that they need to pursue a technological progress in order to meet the
dual objectives of reaching many poor people and financial sustainability.


Key words:     Productivity Change, Malmquist Productivity Index, Ethiopian MFIs,


    1.   Introduction
Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) are essential ingredients in the development processes of a country. MFIs
provide financial services to low-income households in developing countries around the world. Historically
microfinance institutions predominantly originated with a mission of a social objective, i.e., poverty
reduction. However, in the last two decades there has been a major shift in emphasis from the social
objective of poverty reduction towards the economic objective of sustainable and market based financial
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ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online)
Vol 4, No.3, 2012

services (Rauf and Mahamood, 2009). Indeed, the mission of all microfinance institutions (MFIs) is to
provide banking services to the poor, that is, to lend very small sums to very poor borrowers(Mersland and
Strøm, 2009). To that end, it is undoubtedly true that the sustainability of micro-financing is very
important for these purposes. According to Hartarska (2005) micro finance institutions face unique
challenges because they must achieve a double bottom line: provide financial services to the poor (outreach)
and cover their costs (sustainability). Otero (1998) reveals that MFIs need to generate profit, but at the same
time, they are required to balance the social objectives of reaching low-income entrepreneurs with
generating a return for their investors.


In addition to this, in recent years, there has been an increase in internal and external pressures for the MFIs
to decrease dependency on subsidized or grant funding and to become financially sustainable (Bogan et al,
2007). However, serving the poor and being financially self sufficient seem contradictory. Closely looking
the challenges that MFIs are facing currently, there seem to be a need in dynamism that improve costs
effectiveness and productivity performances. More specifically, an efficient operation of the micro finance
industry might be a necessary condition for the well functioning of MFIs in the long run in meeting the dual
objectives (outreach to the poor and financial sustainability). Apparently, studies aiming at investigating
efficiency and productivity of these institutions have become appealing in an effort to improve their
outreach performances, remain competitive and becoming sustainable.


An important contribution in studies of performances of MFIs probably, in recent years, a few studies have
tried to investigate the efficiency of micro finance institutions (Nghiem 2004;Gutierrez-Nieto et al 2005,
2007; Abdul Qayyum and Munir Ahmed 2006; Hamiza Haq et al 2007; Bassem 2008; Hermes et al 2008;
Kabir Hassan and Benito Sanchez2009).However, at least to the best of our knowledge there are no analysis
that have been done specifically to investigate the productivity change of micro finance institutions.
Thus, this study aims to investigate the productivity change Ethiopian micro finance industry during the
period 2005-2009 by employing Malmquist index and is expected to show managers, practitioners and
policy makers the performance of Ethiopian microfinance institutions and thereby contribute to the absence
of literature in areas of MFIs.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In section 2, the paper puts brief background of the Ethiopian
micro finance industry. Section 3 provides data and methodology including input and output specifications.
Section 4 presents results and discussions. Finally, Section 5 ends up with conclusions.
    2.   Overview of Micro Finance Industry in Ethiopia
Considering the importance of microfinance to the development the country’s economic growth and
poverty reduction, the Ethiopian government has paved a way to establish micro finance institutions. The
formal microfinance industry began in Ethiopia in 1994/1995 with the government’s “the Licensing and
Supervision of Microfinance Institution Proclamation” designed to encourage Microfinance Institutions
(MFIs) to extend credit to both the rural and urban poor of the country.


As far as the financial products they provide is concerned, many of the Ethiopian MFIs offer similar
financial products and mainly use the group lending methodology, while individual lending is employed to
a limited extent (Amaha, 2008). Some of the loan products provided by MFIs include agricultural loans,
micro-business loans, micro and small enterprise loans (micro-bank loans), employee loans, package loans
(food security loans), and housing loans (Amha, 2008). At present, there are 30 MFIs working through 433
branch offices and 598 sub-branches and are serving over 2.3 million clients (AEMFI, 2010). They provide
financial service, mainly credit and saving and, in some cases, loan insurance. Almost all MFIs in the
country have poverty alleviation as an objective. They are, thus, meant to address the lower strata of micro-
entrepreneurs including those engaged in activities that are started and operated just for survival (Berihun et


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ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online)
Vol 4, No.3, 2012

al, 2009). As of 2009 the industry has pulled a total asset of 7.2 billion Birr (55.1 million USD311), with 5.1
billion birr (38.9 million USD) in outstanding loans and mobilized a total deposit of 2.4 billion birr (18.4
Million USD) (AMFI, 2009). Indeed, the four largest MFIs namely, ACSI, DECSI, OCSSCO and Omo are
backed by the governments of the four most populous regional states and account for 81 per cent of client
outreach and 85 per cent of total loans outstanding(IFAD,2011). The two largest MFIs (also the two largest
in Africa), ACSI in Amhara and DECSI in Tigray, account for over half (55 per cent) of total outreach and
for almost two thirds (63 per cent) of loans outstanding (ibid). According (Pfister et al, 2008), Ethiopian
microfinance has made remarkable progress over the past decade, reaching almost two million clients in a
country of 77 million people. Nevertheless, financial services for the low-income population, poor farmers
and MSMEs are still characterized by limited outreach, high transaction costs for clients, a generally weak
institutional base, weak governance and a nominal ownership structure as well as dependence on
government and mother NGOs (ibid).


      3.   Data and Methodology
The study is mainly based on secondary data. It is based on the annual data covering the period from
2004-2009 for the 19 micro finance institutions operating in Ethiopia. In fact, there are 30 MFIs currently
operating in Ethiopia; however, data cannot be generated from all the MFIs as some lack sufficient data
while others are new to be included in the analysis. The data is extracted from the financial statements
provided by the Association of Ethiopian Microfinance Institutions (AEMFI), National Bank of Ethiopia
(NBE) and Mix market.


In financial institution literature there are three alternative methods which have been used for measuring the
productivity changes, namely Fisher index, Tornqvist index and the Malmquist Index (Sofian, 2007). Of
these, indeed, the Malmquist TFP index is the most widely used measure of productivity change (Casu et
al,). Grifell-Tatje and Lovell (1996) noted that the Malmquist index has three main advantages relative to
the Fischer and Tornqvist indices. Firstly, it does not require the profit maximization, or the cost
minimization, assumption. Secondly, it does not require information on the input and output prices. Finally,
if the researcher has panel data, it allows the decomposition of productivity changes into two components
(technical efficiency change or catching up, and technical change or changes in the best practice). Its main
disadvantage is the necessity to compute the distance functions. However, the Data Envelopment Analysis
(DEA) technique can be used to solve this problem
The Malmquist productivity index (MPI) evaluates the productivity change of decision making units (MFIs
studied) between two time periods. It can be defined as the product of Catch-up and Frontier-shift terms.
Catch-up or recovery is related to the degree in which a decision making unit (DMU) improves or worsens
efficiency frontier shift (or innovation) is a term which reflects the change in the efficiency its frontiers
between the two time periods (Cooper et al 2007).


 As discussed above the Malmquist index measures productivity growth (change). An MFI’s productivity
change could be due to either change in technical efficiency or change in the technology – technological
progress in the industry– or both. The total factor productivity change is the product of technical efficiency
change and technological change. Technical efficiency change is decomposed into pure technical efficiency
and scale efficiency change.



The Malmquist index measures total factor productivity (TFP) change between two data points by
calculating the ratio of the distances of each data point relative to a common technology and it requires the

3
    Commercial banks currency exchange rate of 13 ETB to 1 USD has been used
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ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online)
Vol 4, No.3, 2012

inputs and outputs from one time period to be mixed with the technology of another time period. Following
Fare et al. (1994), this paper adopts the output-oriented Malmquist productivity change index, referring the
emphasis on the equi-proportionate increase of outputs, within the context of a given level of input. The
output-oriented Malmquist productivity change index can be expressed as follows:




Where the ratio outside the brackets is equal to the change of technical efficiency between time t and t+1,
representing the change in the relative distance of the observed production from the maximum potential
production; while the component inside the brackets is the geometric mean of the two productivity indexes,
representing the shift in production technologies (technical change) between time t and t+1. The product of
the two components (efficiency change and technical change) is the Malmquist productivity change (total
factor productivity change). In addition, technical efficiency change can be further decomposed into pure
technical efficiency change and scale efficiency change.


Therefore, the two terms in equation (1) are:;




The Malmquist productivity index can be interpreted as a measure of total factor productivity (TFP) growth.
Improvement in productivity, as well as improvement in efficiency and technology, is indicated by values
greater than one, whereas value less than one indicate regress.


Selection of inputs and outputs


In measuring the technical efficiency and productivity of financial institutions, the most serious problem
lies and in fact, remains a controversial issue in literature in defining outputs and inputs of such institutions
(see Berger and Humphrey (1997). Commonly there are three approaches to this problem, namely; the

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ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online)
Vol 4, No.3, 2012

production approach, the intermediation approach, and the assets approach (Berger and Humphrey 1997,
Athanassoupoululo, 1997)
.
Under intermediation approach financial institutions are considered as institutions transferring resources
from savers to investors. In this approach, inputs are measured by the volume of loans and deposits
collected and funds borrowed from financial markets whereas outputs are the loans and investments. Under
production approach financial institutions are producers of deposits and loans. In this approach, the number
of accounts opened or transactions processed is the best measure output, while the number of employees,
physical capital and other operating costs used to perform those transactions are considered as inputs.
Finally under the assets approach it is assumed that the basic function of any financial institution is the
creation of credit (loan). And hence the value of assets of financial institutions acts as output in this
approach. Microfinance institutions are also financial institutions but their approach and motive differs
from other financial institutions. They target mainly poor persons often without any collateral requirements
and their motive is not only to maximize profit (Gutierrez-Neito et al. 2007).


The selection of inputs and outputs for this study is based on the dual objectives of micro finance
institutions viz outreach and sustainability framework which in line with the prior study of Gutierrez  et
al (2007). consequently we specify two inputs and three outputs; the number of employees , and operating
expenses/administrative expenses are specified as the two inputs whereas the outputs are interests and fee
income, gross loan portfolio, and number of loans outstanding(number). Table 1 presents descriptive
statistics of the inputs and out puts.


    4.   Results and Discussion
Table 1 reports the descriptive statistics of the variables included in the analysis of productivity changes
including their mean, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values for the sample of 19 MFIs
during the period 2004-2009. It can be observed that the variables used in the study vary greatly among
the sample MFIs and suggested that the sample observation composed of large and small micro finances as
well, as measured in terms of gross loan portfolio and number of loan outstanding among others.


Changes in productivity over the period of study are summarized in table 2. It should be noted all that
values for total factor productivity (TFP) or any of its components that are greater than 1 indicate progress
in efficiency and values less than 1 regress. The Malmquist productivity change experienced by the micro
finance industry as a whole has averaged 3.8. % per year and suggest improvement in performance of MFIs
from 2004-2009. As the result showed over the sample period, the average annual rate of technical
efficiency change is 10.1% while the rate of technological change is -5.8%.


As indicated in (table 2) the analysis of the change in efficiencies (Malmquist indices) shows that
productivity has been increasing during the period 2004-2009. With the exception of the year 2004-2005
( slight decline in productivity, which is 0.2 percent) the MF industry has reported productivity
progress in the study period (productivity rose of 5.5 percent, 5.8 percent,0.3 percent and 7.7 percent in the
years 2005-2006, 2006-2007, 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 respectively).
By decomposing the Malmquist index, it is possible to determine the sources of productivity growth. As
explained previously, technical efficiency change (TEC) and technological change             (TC) are the
efficiency changes (movement of micro finances towards the frontier -catching up) and technological
changes (frontier shift) respectively. In this regard, the sources of growth or decline in Ethiopian micro
finance industry are due to TEC, TC, or both. However, from table 2 and table 3, it is apparent that the
main source of TFP growth for the MFIs was attributed to the technical efficiency change(10.1 percent
increase) as the result depicted that 16 out of 19 MFIs (84 %) have shown improvement in TEC. On the
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European Journal of Business and Management                                                   www.iiste.org
ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online)
Vol 4, No.3, 2012

contrary, only 5 out of 19 (26.3%) MFIs have shown improvement in TC but still the industry as a whole
has exhibited a decline in technological change (5.8 percent decrease over the period) and suggested that
there has been a deterioration in the performance of the best practicing micro finance institutions.
Furthermore, during the study period the improvement in productivity as the result of an average
efficiency increase of 10.1 percent was offset by the average technological decrease of 5.8 percent and
turn the industry to exhibit a 3.8 percent overall productivity gains. Furthermore, technical efficiency
change can be decomposed into its pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency. Accordingly, the result
showed that pure technical efficiency increased by 8.9 percent while scale efficiency contributed on
average 1.1 percent increase and hence suggested that during the study period the Ethiopian MFIs have
experienced mainly an increment of pure technical efficiency( improvement in management practices)
rather than in improvement in optimum size(scale efficiency change).


    5.   Conclusion
By employing the Malmquist productivity index this study attempts to examine the total factor productivity
change in the Ethiopian micro finance institutions (MFIs) using a balanced panel dataset of 114
observations from 19 micro finance institutions over the period of 2004-2009. The selection of inputs and
outputs for the study is based on the dual objectives of MFIs viz, outreach and sustainability framework.
Consequently, we specify two inputs and three outputs; the number of employees, and operating expenses
are specified as inputs whereas the outputs are interests and fee income, gross loan portfolio, and number of
loans outstanding (number).
The result of the study indicated that over the period the malmquist productivity change experienced by the
micro finance industry as a whole has averaged 3.8 % annually. From the analysis it is apparent that the
main source of TFP growth for the MFIs was attributed to the technical efficiency change. Though few
MFIs (5 out of 19 MFIs) have shown improvement in technological change, the industry as a whole has
exhibited a decline in technological change (5.8 percent decrease over the period) and suggested that there
has been deterioration in the performance of the best practicing micro finance institutions. By decomposing
the Malmquist index, it is possible to determine the sources of productivity growth. Accordingly, the result
showed that during the study period the Ethiopian MFIs have experienced mainly an increment of pure
technical efficiency (improvement in management practices) rather than an improvement in optimum size.
In sum, an important policy/strategic implication for the Ethiopian micro finance industry is that they need
to pursue a technological progress in order to meet the dual objectives of reaching many poor people and
financial sustainability.
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Berihun H, Tsehaye T., Teklu K., and Tassew W.,(2009), " Financial needs of Micro and Small
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Parametric and Non-Parametric Approach, " Journal of Banking and Finance 28, 2521-2540.


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Center for Efficiency and Productivity Analysis." Armidale, NSW Australia: University of New England.


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Comprehensive Text with Models, Applications, References and DEA-Solver Software, Springer New York


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Bulletin No. 5..


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micro finance institutions. Addis Ababa.


Fare, R., Grosskopf,S., Norris,M. and Zhang, Z. (1994)"Productivity Growth, Technical Progress and
Efficiency Change in Industrialized Countries." American Economic Review 84, 66-83.
Grifell–Tatje, E. and Lovell, C.A.K (1996), "Deregulation and Productivity Decline: The Case of Spanish
Savings Banks, " European Economic Review 40, 1281-1303.
Gutierrez-Neito, B., Serrano-Cinca, C. and Mar Molinero, C.(2009), "Social efficiency in microfinance
institutions." Journal of the Operations Research Society 60, 104-119.
Gutiérrez-Nieto B, Serrano-Cinca C, Mar-Molinero C.(2005) "Microfinance institutions and efficiency." Int
J Manage Sci 35(2), 131–142.
Haq M., Skully, M. and Pathan, S.(2010), "Efficiency of microfinance institutions: A Data Envelopment
analyses." Asia-Pacific Financial Markets 17, : 63-97.


Hartarska, V. (2005), "Governance and performance of microfinance institutions in central and eastern
Europe and the newly independent states." World Development 33, 1627-1648.


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Evaluation" Report No. 2373-ET


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Vol 4, No.3, 2012

Hassan, M.K. and S. Benito (2009). "Efficiency analysis of microfinance institutions in developing
countries." Networks Financial Institute, Indiana State University Working Paper-12.


Hermes, N., Lensink, R. and Meesters, A. (2008). "Outreach the efficiency of microfinance institutions"
[Online] available : http://www.papers.ssm.com. (November 24, 2009).
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of Banking and Finance 33(4), 662–69.


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Ethiopia: Sector Assessment study volume 2, GTZ


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NGO schemes in the north and the central regions." International Journal of Environmental, Cultural,
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  Table 1.Descriptive statistics of Variables (inputs and Outputs) in dollars
                                  2004            2005             2006            2007             2008              2009
Output   Gross loan    Average     6328424.85      9744770.55      13766157.37     18844364.53      23339095.90       20927300.10
         portfolio
                       Std dev    12797557.82     20163130.28      25564762.22     36565166.93      46163287.85       38405984.36
                       Max            46365572        77918547       85266397       118766535         155668558        131184763
                       Min               103480           170229          263382          280132           427230            786650
         Number of     Average     1088873.05          68101.30       81526.45        98452.95        108202.85         120616.70
         loans
                       Std dev    3560694.682      130002.942       145643.921      170817.514       189609.428        197968.151
                       Max            15622650            434814          536804          597723      108202.85         120616.70
                       Min                 1153             1365            1917           1924              2984             2800
         Interest &    Average      766112.75      1176197.55       1784483.84      1784483.84       3168793.15        3252691.95
         fee income
                       Std dev     1531603.59      2394933.57       3333634.44      4602177.50       6408038.59        6325184.72
                       Max            5458600            8022074     11671356        16947735          25368310           25152802
                       Min                18806           32860            38236           74535           101127            152918
Input    Operating     Average      338073.07         456196.20      661512.40       839407.10       1116844.00        1121145.55
         expenses
                       Std dev     483416.053      677295.702       890280.763     1188215.847      1799420.306       1522281.266
                       Max            1865700            2687450      3216371         4336629           7394112           5422833
                       Min                25894           34499            51585           63465            72290            132600
         Number of     Average           238.00           314.40          378.75          432.35           490.60            515.95
         employees
                       Std dev         408.790           529.080       604.587         684.013           754.046           802.781
                       Max                 1670             1915            2065           2363              2590             2732
                       Min                   17               18              27              28               38                37


  Table 2: Malmquist Index Summary of Annual Means
  Year            Technical              Technological         Pure Technical       Scale                  Total Factor
                  efficiency change      change (TC)          Efficiency Change     efficiency             Productivity
                  (TEC)                                                                                      Change
                                                                                                           (Malmquist)
  2004-2005             1.139                 0.876                 1.195                 0.953               0.998
  2005-2006             1.193                 0.885                 1.140                 1.047               1.055
  2006-2007             1.147                 0.923                 1.042                 1.101               1.058
  2007-2008             0.967                 1.037                 0.989                 0.978               1.003
  2008-2009             1.075                 1.002                 1.092                 0.984               1.077
  Mean                  1.101                 0.942                 1.089                 1.011               1.038


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Vol 4, No.3, 2012


Table 3: Malmquist Index Summary of Ethiopian MFI’s Means
Micro finance        Technical     Technological   Pure Technical   Scale Efficiency   Total    Factor
                     Efficiency    Change (TC)     Efficiency       Change             Productivity
                     Change                        Change                              Change
                     (TEC)                                                             (Malmquist)
ACSI                 1.045         0.983           1.000            1.045              1.027
ADCSI                1.002         0.974           1.000            1.002              0.976
AVFS                 1.126         0.926           1.138            0.989              1.042
BGMFISC              1.283         0.921           1.260            1.018              1.182
Buusaa Gonofaa       1.159         0.961           1.116            1.039              1.114
DECSI                1.000         0.953           1.000            1.000              0.953
Eshet                0.959         1.064           0.986            0.973              1.020
Gasha                1.107         1.043           1.181            0.937              1.155
Metemamen            1.536         0.804           1.456            1.055              1.234
OCSSCO               1.091         0.929           1.094            0.997              1.014
OMO                  1.249         0.840           1.244            1.004              1.049
PEACE                0.939         0.703           0.950            0.988              0.660
SFPI                 1.052         0.986           1.031            1.021              1.037
Wasasa               1.127         0.959           1.069            1.055              1.080
Wisdom               0.995         0.988           0.988            1.006              0.983
Meklit               1.037         1.001           1.076            0.964              1.037
Sidama               1.286         0.835           1.269            1.013              1.074
SEYAMFI              1.175         1.049           1.000            1.175              1.232
Agar I               0.927         1.082           0.971            0.954              1.003
Mean                 1.101         0.942           0.971            0.954              1.038




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Total factor productivity change of ethiopian microfinance institutions (mf is)

  • 1. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol 4, No.3, 2012 Total Factor Productivity Change of Ethiopian Microfinance Institutions (MFIs): A Malmquist Productivity Index Approach (MPI) Bereket Zerai Gebremichael PhD Candidate, Department of Commerce and Management studies, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India - 530 003 Email bereketzg@yahoo.com D. Lalitha Rani Professor of Marketing and Entrepreneurship, Department of Commerce and Management studies, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India - 530 003 Email mlalitha09@yahoo.co.in Abstract By employing the Malmquist productivity index this study attempts to examine the total factor productivity change in the Ethiopian micro finance institutions (MFIs) using a balanced panel dataset of 114 observations from 19 micro finance institutions over the period 2004-2009. The selection of inputs and outputs for the study is based on the dual objectives of MFIs viz outreach and sustainability framework which is in line with the prior study of (Gutierrez et al 2007, 2009). Consequently, we specify two inputs and three outputs; the number of employees, and operating expenses are specified as inputs whereas the outputs are interests and fee income, gross loan portfolio, and number of loans outstanding (number). The result of the study indicated that over the period the malmquist productivity change experienced by the micro finance industry as a whole has averaged 3.8 % annually. With the exception of the year 2004-2005 (slight decline in productivity, which was 0.2 percent) the micro finance industry has reported productivity progress in the study period(i.e productivity rose of 5.5 percent, 5.8 percent,0.3 percent and 7.7 percent in the years 2005-2006, 2006-2007, 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 respectively. It is apparent from the analysis that the main source of total factor productivity (TFP) growth for the MFIs was attributed to the technical efficiency change(10.1 percent increase) as the result depicted that 16 out of 19 MFIs ( about 84 %) has shown improvement in technical efficiency changes. In contrast, only 5 out of 19 (26.3%) MFIs have shown improvement in technological change but still the industry as a whole has exhibited a decline in technological change (5.8 percent decrease over the period) and suggested that there has been a deterioration in the performance of the best practicing micro finance institutions. Further the result showed that pure technical efficiency increased by 8.9 percent while scale efficiency contributed on average 1.1 percent increase and hence suggested that during the study period the Ethiopian MFIs have experienced mainly an increment of pure technical efficiency( improvement in management practices) rather than an improvement in optimum size(scale efficiency change). Generally, an important implication for the Ethiopian micro finance industry is that they need to pursue a technological progress in order to meet the dual objectives of reaching many poor people and financial sustainability. Key words: Productivity Change, Malmquist Productivity Index, Ethiopian MFIs, 1. Introduction Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) are essential ingredients in the development processes of a country. MFIs provide financial services to low-income households in developing countries around the world. Historically microfinance institutions predominantly originated with a mission of a social objective, i.e., poverty reduction. However, in the last two decades there has been a major shift in emphasis from the social objective of poverty reduction towards the economic objective of sustainable and market based financial 105
  • 2. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol 4, No.3, 2012 services (Rauf and Mahamood, 2009). Indeed, the mission of all microfinance institutions (MFIs) is to provide banking services to the poor, that is, to lend very small sums to very poor borrowers(Mersland and Strøm, 2009). To that end, it is undoubtedly true that the sustainability of micro-financing is very important for these purposes. According to Hartarska (2005) micro finance institutions face unique challenges because they must achieve a double bottom line: provide financial services to the poor (outreach) and cover their costs (sustainability). Otero (1998) reveals that MFIs need to generate profit, but at the same time, they are required to balance the social objectives of reaching low-income entrepreneurs with generating a return for their investors. In addition to this, in recent years, there has been an increase in internal and external pressures for the MFIs to decrease dependency on subsidized or grant funding and to become financially sustainable (Bogan et al, 2007). However, serving the poor and being financially self sufficient seem contradictory. Closely looking the challenges that MFIs are facing currently, there seem to be a need in dynamism that improve costs effectiveness and productivity performances. More specifically, an efficient operation of the micro finance industry might be a necessary condition for the well functioning of MFIs in the long run in meeting the dual objectives (outreach to the poor and financial sustainability). Apparently, studies aiming at investigating efficiency and productivity of these institutions have become appealing in an effort to improve their outreach performances, remain competitive and becoming sustainable. An important contribution in studies of performances of MFIs probably, in recent years, a few studies have tried to investigate the efficiency of micro finance institutions (Nghiem 2004;Gutierrez-Nieto et al 2005, 2007; Abdul Qayyum and Munir Ahmed 2006; Hamiza Haq et al 2007; Bassem 2008; Hermes et al 2008; Kabir Hassan and Benito Sanchez2009).However, at least to the best of our knowledge there are no analysis that have been done specifically to investigate the productivity change of micro finance institutions. Thus, this study aims to investigate the productivity change Ethiopian micro finance industry during the period 2005-2009 by employing Malmquist index and is expected to show managers, practitioners and policy makers the performance of Ethiopian microfinance institutions and thereby contribute to the absence of literature in areas of MFIs. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In section 2, the paper puts brief background of the Ethiopian micro finance industry. Section 3 provides data and methodology including input and output specifications. Section 4 presents results and discussions. Finally, Section 5 ends up with conclusions. 2. Overview of Micro Finance Industry in Ethiopia Considering the importance of microfinance to the development the country’s economic growth and poverty reduction, the Ethiopian government has paved a way to establish micro finance institutions. The formal microfinance industry began in Ethiopia in 1994/1995 with the government’s “the Licensing and Supervision of Microfinance Institution Proclamation” designed to encourage Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) to extend credit to both the rural and urban poor of the country. As far as the financial products they provide is concerned, many of the Ethiopian MFIs offer similar financial products and mainly use the group lending methodology, while individual lending is employed to a limited extent (Amaha, 2008). Some of the loan products provided by MFIs include agricultural loans, micro-business loans, micro and small enterprise loans (micro-bank loans), employee loans, package loans (food security loans), and housing loans (Amha, 2008). At present, there are 30 MFIs working through 433 branch offices and 598 sub-branches and are serving over 2.3 million clients (AEMFI, 2010). They provide financial service, mainly credit and saving and, in some cases, loan insurance. Almost all MFIs in the country have poverty alleviation as an objective. They are, thus, meant to address the lower strata of micro- entrepreneurs including those engaged in activities that are started and operated just for survival (Berihun et 106
  • 3. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol 4, No.3, 2012 al, 2009). As of 2009 the industry has pulled a total asset of 7.2 billion Birr (55.1 million USD311), with 5.1 billion birr (38.9 million USD) in outstanding loans and mobilized a total deposit of 2.4 billion birr (18.4 Million USD) (AMFI, 2009). Indeed, the four largest MFIs namely, ACSI, DECSI, OCSSCO and Omo are backed by the governments of the four most populous regional states and account for 81 per cent of client outreach and 85 per cent of total loans outstanding(IFAD,2011). The two largest MFIs (also the two largest in Africa), ACSI in Amhara and DECSI in Tigray, account for over half (55 per cent) of total outreach and for almost two thirds (63 per cent) of loans outstanding (ibid). According (Pfister et al, 2008), Ethiopian microfinance has made remarkable progress over the past decade, reaching almost two million clients in a country of 77 million people. Nevertheless, financial services for the low-income population, poor farmers and MSMEs are still characterized by limited outreach, high transaction costs for clients, a generally weak institutional base, weak governance and a nominal ownership structure as well as dependence on government and mother NGOs (ibid). 3. Data and Methodology The study is mainly based on secondary data. It is based on the annual data covering the period from 2004-2009 for the 19 micro finance institutions operating in Ethiopia. In fact, there are 30 MFIs currently operating in Ethiopia; however, data cannot be generated from all the MFIs as some lack sufficient data while others are new to be included in the analysis. The data is extracted from the financial statements provided by the Association of Ethiopian Microfinance Institutions (AEMFI), National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) and Mix market. In financial institution literature there are three alternative methods which have been used for measuring the productivity changes, namely Fisher index, Tornqvist index and the Malmquist Index (Sofian, 2007). Of these, indeed, the Malmquist TFP index is the most widely used measure of productivity change (Casu et al,). Grifell-Tatje and Lovell (1996) noted that the Malmquist index has three main advantages relative to the Fischer and Tornqvist indices. Firstly, it does not require the profit maximization, or the cost minimization, assumption. Secondly, it does not require information on the input and output prices. Finally, if the researcher has panel data, it allows the decomposition of productivity changes into two components (technical efficiency change or catching up, and technical change or changes in the best practice). Its main disadvantage is the necessity to compute the distance functions. However, the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique can be used to solve this problem The Malmquist productivity index (MPI) evaluates the productivity change of decision making units (MFIs studied) between two time periods. It can be defined as the product of Catch-up and Frontier-shift terms. Catch-up or recovery is related to the degree in which a decision making unit (DMU) improves or worsens efficiency frontier shift (or innovation) is a term which reflects the change in the efficiency its frontiers between the two time periods (Cooper et al 2007). As discussed above the Malmquist index measures productivity growth (change). An MFI’s productivity change could be due to either change in technical efficiency or change in the technology – technological progress in the industry– or both. The total factor productivity change is the product of technical efficiency change and technological change. Technical efficiency change is decomposed into pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency change. The Malmquist index measures total factor productivity (TFP) change between two data points by calculating the ratio of the distances of each data point relative to a common technology and it requires the 3 Commercial banks currency exchange rate of 13 ETB to 1 USD has been used 107
  • 4. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol 4, No.3, 2012 inputs and outputs from one time period to be mixed with the technology of another time period. Following Fare et al. (1994), this paper adopts the output-oriented Malmquist productivity change index, referring the emphasis on the equi-proportionate increase of outputs, within the context of a given level of input. The output-oriented Malmquist productivity change index can be expressed as follows: Where the ratio outside the brackets is equal to the change of technical efficiency between time t and t+1, representing the change in the relative distance of the observed production from the maximum potential production; while the component inside the brackets is the geometric mean of the two productivity indexes, representing the shift in production technologies (technical change) between time t and t+1. The product of the two components (efficiency change and technical change) is the Malmquist productivity change (total factor productivity change). In addition, technical efficiency change can be further decomposed into pure technical efficiency change and scale efficiency change. Therefore, the two terms in equation (1) are:; The Malmquist productivity index can be interpreted as a measure of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Improvement in productivity, as well as improvement in efficiency and technology, is indicated by values greater than one, whereas value less than one indicate regress. Selection of inputs and outputs In measuring the technical efficiency and productivity of financial institutions, the most serious problem lies and in fact, remains a controversial issue in literature in defining outputs and inputs of such institutions (see Berger and Humphrey (1997). Commonly there are three approaches to this problem, namely; the 108
  • 5. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol 4, No.3, 2012 production approach, the intermediation approach, and the assets approach (Berger and Humphrey 1997, Athanassoupoululo, 1997) . Under intermediation approach financial institutions are considered as institutions transferring resources from savers to investors. In this approach, inputs are measured by the volume of loans and deposits collected and funds borrowed from financial markets whereas outputs are the loans and investments. Under production approach financial institutions are producers of deposits and loans. In this approach, the number of accounts opened or transactions processed is the best measure output, while the number of employees, physical capital and other operating costs used to perform those transactions are considered as inputs. Finally under the assets approach it is assumed that the basic function of any financial institution is the creation of credit (loan). And hence the value of assets of financial institutions acts as output in this approach. Microfinance institutions are also financial institutions but their approach and motive differs from other financial institutions. They target mainly poor persons often without any collateral requirements and their motive is not only to maximize profit (Gutierrez-Neito et al. 2007). The selection of inputs and outputs for this study is based on the dual objectives of micro finance institutions viz outreach and sustainability framework which in line with the prior study of Gutierrez et al (2007). consequently we specify two inputs and three outputs; the number of employees , and operating expenses/administrative expenses are specified as the two inputs whereas the outputs are interests and fee income, gross loan portfolio, and number of loans outstanding(number). Table 1 presents descriptive statistics of the inputs and out puts. 4. Results and Discussion Table 1 reports the descriptive statistics of the variables included in the analysis of productivity changes including their mean, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values for the sample of 19 MFIs during the period 2004-2009. It can be observed that the variables used in the study vary greatly among the sample MFIs and suggested that the sample observation composed of large and small micro finances as well, as measured in terms of gross loan portfolio and number of loan outstanding among others. Changes in productivity over the period of study are summarized in table 2. It should be noted all that values for total factor productivity (TFP) or any of its components that are greater than 1 indicate progress in efficiency and values less than 1 regress. The Malmquist productivity change experienced by the micro finance industry as a whole has averaged 3.8. % per year and suggest improvement in performance of MFIs from 2004-2009. As the result showed over the sample period, the average annual rate of technical efficiency change is 10.1% while the rate of technological change is -5.8%. As indicated in (table 2) the analysis of the change in efficiencies (Malmquist indices) shows that productivity has been increasing during the period 2004-2009. With the exception of the year 2004-2005 ( slight decline in productivity, which is 0.2 percent) the MF industry has reported productivity progress in the study period (productivity rose of 5.5 percent, 5.8 percent,0.3 percent and 7.7 percent in the years 2005-2006, 2006-2007, 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 respectively). By decomposing the Malmquist index, it is possible to determine the sources of productivity growth. As explained previously, technical efficiency change (TEC) and technological change (TC) are the efficiency changes (movement of micro finances towards the frontier -catching up) and technological changes (frontier shift) respectively. In this regard, the sources of growth or decline in Ethiopian micro finance industry are due to TEC, TC, or both. However, from table 2 and table 3, it is apparent that the main source of TFP growth for the MFIs was attributed to the technical efficiency change(10.1 percent increase) as the result depicted that 16 out of 19 MFIs (84 %) have shown improvement in TEC. On the 109
  • 6. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol 4, No.3, 2012 contrary, only 5 out of 19 (26.3%) MFIs have shown improvement in TC but still the industry as a whole has exhibited a decline in technological change (5.8 percent decrease over the period) and suggested that there has been a deterioration in the performance of the best practicing micro finance institutions. Furthermore, during the study period the improvement in productivity as the result of an average efficiency increase of 10.1 percent was offset by the average technological decrease of 5.8 percent and turn the industry to exhibit a 3.8 percent overall productivity gains. Furthermore, technical efficiency change can be decomposed into its pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency. Accordingly, the result showed that pure technical efficiency increased by 8.9 percent while scale efficiency contributed on average 1.1 percent increase and hence suggested that during the study period the Ethiopian MFIs have experienced mainly an increment of pure technical efficiency( improvement in management practices) rather than in improvement in optimum size(scale efficiency change). 5. Conclusion By employing the Malmquist productivity index this study attempts to examine the total factor productivity change in the Ethiopian micro finance institutions (MFIs) using a balanced panel dataset of 114 observations from 19 micro finance institutions over the period of 2004-2009. The selection of inputs and outputs for the study is based on the dual objectives of MFIs viz, outreach and sustainability framework. Consequently, we specify two inputs and three outputs; the number of employees, and operating expenses are specified as inputs whereas the outputs are interests and fee income, gross loan portfolio, and number of loans outstanding (number). The result of the study indicated that over the period the malmquist productivity change experienced by the micro finance industry as a whole has averaged 3.8 % annually. From the analysis it is apparent that the main source of TFP growth for the MFIs was attributed to the technical efficiency change. Though few MFIs (5 out of 19 MFIs) have shown improvement in technological change, the industry as a whole has exhibited a decline in technological change (5.8 percent decrease over the period) and suggested that there has been deterioration in the performance of the best practicing micro finance institutions. By decomposing the Malmquist index, it is possible to determine the sources of productivity growth. Accordingly, the result showed that during the study period the Ethiopian MFIs have experienced mainly an increment of pure technical efficiency (improvement in management practices) rather than an improvement in optimum size. In sum, an important policy/strategic implication for the Ethiopian micro finance industry is that they need to pursue a technological progress in order to meet the dual objectives of reaching many poor people and financial sustainability. References Abdul, Q. A, and Ahmed, M.(2006) "Efficiency and Sustainability of Microfinance Institutions in South Asia." Pskistan Institute of Development Economics(PIDE). Amaha, W. (2008), "A decade of Microfinance Institutions’ (MFIS) Development in Ethiopia: Growth, Performance, Impact and Prospect (2008-2017) " Occasional paper No.21, Addis Ababa, for/by the Association of Ethiopian Microfinance Institutions (AEMFI) Athanassopoulos, A.D. (1997), "Service quality and operating efficiency synergies for management control in the provision of financial services: Evidence from Greek bank branches." European Journal of Operational Research 98 (2), 300-313 Berger, A.N., Humphrey, D.B., (1997), " Efficiency of Financial Institutions: International Survey and Directions for Future Research." European Journal of Operational Research 98, 175-212. 110
  • 7. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol 4, No.3, 2012 Berihun H, Tsehaye T., Teklu K., and Tassew W.,(2009), " Financial needs of Micro and Small Enterprise(MSE) operators in Ethiopia" Association of Ethiopian Microfinance Instutitions(AEMFI) occasional paper No 24. Bassem, S. B.(2008), "Efficiency of microfinance institutions in the Mediterranean: An application of DEA." Transit Stud Rev 15, 343-354. Bogan Vicki, Willene Johnson, and Nomathemba Mhlanga(2007), "Does Capital Structure Affect the Financial Sustainability of Microfinance Institutions? " A preliminary paper Casu, B., Girardone, C. and Molyneux, P. (2004), "Productivity Change in Banking: A Comparison of Parametric and Non-Parametric Approach, " Journal of Banking and Finance 28, 2521-2540. Coelli, Tim. (1996), "A Guide to DEAP Version 2.1: A Data Envelopment Analysis (Computer) Program, Center for Efficiency and Productivity Analysis." Armidale, NSW Australia: University of New England. Cooper William W, Seiford Lawrence M. and Tone Kaoru ,(2007) Data Envelopment Analysis A Comprehensive Text with Models, Applications, References and DEA-Solver Software, Springer New York Ethiopian Microfinance Institutions (2009) Performance Analysis Report, Performance Indicators Report, Bulletin No. 5.. Ethiopian Microfinance Institutions (2010) Performance Analysis Report, Performance Indicators Report, Bulletin No. 6. Ethiopian Government. (1996). Proclamation No.40/1996. Licensing and supervision of the business of micro finance institutions. Addis Ababa. Fare, R., Grosskopf,S., Norris,M. and Zhang, Z. (1994)"Productivity Growth, Technical Progress and Efficiency Change in Industrialized Countries." American Economic Review 84, 66-83. Grifell–Tatje, E. and Lovell, C.A.K (1996), "Deregulation and Productivity Decline: The Case of Spanish Savings Banks, " European Economic Review 40, 1281-1303. Gutierrez-Neito, B., Serrano-Cinca, C. and Mar Molinero, C.(2009), "Social efficiency in microfinance institutions." Journal of the Operations Research Society 60, 104-119. Gutiérrez-Nieto B, Serrano-Cinca C, Mar-Molinero C.(2005) "Microfinance institutions and efficiency." Int J Manage Sci 35(2), 131–142. Haq M., Skully, M. and Pathan, S.(2010), "Efficiency of microfinance institutions: A Data Envelopment analyses." Asia-Pacific Financial Markets 17, : 63-97. Hartarska, V. (2005), "Governance and performance of microfinance institutions in central and eastern Europe and the newly independent states." World Development 33, 1627-1648. IFAD(2011), "Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Rural Financial Intermediation Programme Interim Evaluation" Report No. 2373-ET 111
  • 8. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol 4, No.3, 2012 Hassan, M.K. and S. Benito (2009). "Efficiency analysis of microfinance institutions in developing countries." Networks Financial Institute, Indiana State University Working Paper-12. Hermes, N., Lensink, R. and Meesters, A. (2008). "Outreach the efficiency of microfinance institutions" [Online] available : http://www.papers.ssm.com. (November 24, 2009). Mersland, R. and Strøm, R.Ø.,(2009), "Performance and governance in microfinance institutions" Journal of Banking and Finance 33(4), 662–69. Pfister M. W., Gesesse D., Amha W., Mommartz R., Duflos W., Steel E. (2008) Access to finance in Ethiopia: Sector Assessment study volume 2, GTZ Nghiem, H., Coelli,T. and Rao, D. S. P.(2006) "The efficiency of microfinance in Vietnam: evidence from NGO schemes in the north and the central regions." International Journal of Environmental, Cultural, Economic and Social Sustainability 2 (5), 71-78. Otero, Maria. (1998), "Types of Owners for Microfinance Institutions." In Craig Churchill, ed.,Moving Microfinance Forward: Ownership, Competition and Control of Microfinance Institutions. Washington DC: MicroFinance Network. Rauf Shahnza A. and Mahamood, T.,(2009), "Growth and Performance of Microfinance in Pakistan" Pakistan Economic and Social Review 47(1 ), 99-122 Sufian, F., (2010), "Sources of TFP growth in the Malaysian Islamic Banking Sector, " The Service Industries Journal 29, 1273–1291, 112
  • 9. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol 4, No.3, 2012 Table 1.Descriptive statistics of Variables (inputs and Outputs) in dollars 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Output Gross loan Average 6328424.85 9744770.55 13766157.37 18844364.53 23339095.90 20927300.10 portfolio Std dev 12797557.82 20163130.28 25564762.22 36565166.93 46163287.85 38405984.36 Max 46365572 77918547 85266397 118766535 155668558 131184763 Min 103480 170229 263382 280132 427230 786650 Number of Average 1088873.05 68101.30 81526.45 98452.95 108202.85 120616.70 loans Std dev 3560694.682 130002.942 145643.921 170817.514 189609.428 197968.151 Max 15622650 434814 536804 597723 108202.85 120616.70 Min 1153 1365 1917 1924 2984 2800 Interest & Average 766112.75 1176197.55 1784483.84 1784483.84 3168793.15 3252691.95 fee income Std dev 1531603.59 2394933.57 3333634.44 4602177.50 6408038.59 6325184.72 Max 5458600 8022074 11671356 16947735 25368310 25152802 Min 18806 32860 38236 74535 101127 152918 Input Operating Average 338073.07 456196.20 661512.40 839407.10 1116844.00 1121145.55 expenses Std dev 483416.053 677295.702 890280.763 1188215.847 1799420.306 1522281.266 Max 1865700 2687450 3216371 4336629 7394112 5422833 Min 25894 34499 51585 63465 72290 132600 Number of Average 238.00 314.40 378.75 432.35 490.60 515.95 employees Std dev 408.790 529.080 604.587 684.013 754.046 802.781 Max 1670 1915 2065 2363 2590 2732 Min 17 18 27 28 38 37 Table 2: Malmquist Index Summary of Annual Means Year Technical Technological Pure Technical Scale Total Factor efficiency change change (TC) Efficiency Change efficiency Productivity (TEC) Change (Malmquist) 2004-2005 1.139 0.876 1.195 0.953 0.998 2005-2006 1.193 0.885 1.140 1.047 1.055 2006-2007 1.147 0.923 1.042 1.101 1.058 2007-2008 0.967 1.037 0.989 0.978 1.003 2008-2009 1.075 1.002 1.092 0.984 1.077 Mean 1.101 0.942 1.089 1.011 1.038 113
  • 10. European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol 4, No.3, 2012 Table 3: Malmquist Index Summary of Ethiopian MFI’s Means Micro finance Technical Technological Pure Technical Scale Efficiency Total Factor Efficiency Change (TC) Efficiency Change Productivity Change Change Change (TEC) (Malmquist) ACSI 1.045 0.983 1.000 1.045 1.027 ADCSI 1.002 0.974 1.000 1.002 0.976 AVFS 1.126 0.926 1.138 0.989 1.042 BGMFISC 1.283 0.921 1.260 1.018 1.182 Buusaa Gonofaa 1.159 0.961 1.116 1.039 1.114 DECSI 1.000 0.953 1.000 1.000 0.953 Eshet 0.959 1.064 0.986 0.973 1.020 Gasha 1.107 1.043 1.181 0.937 1.155 Metemamen 1.536 0.804 1.456 1.055 1.234 OCSSCO 1.091 0.929 1.094 0.997 1.014 OMO 1.249 0.840 1.244 1.004 1.049 PEACE 0.939 0.703 0.950 0.988 0.660 SFPI 1.052 0.986 1.031 1.021 1.037 Wasasa 1.127 0.959 1.069 1.055 1.080 Wisdom 0.995 0.988 0.988 1.006 0.983 Meklit 1.037 1.001 1.076 0.964 1.037 Sidama 1.286 0.835 1.269 1.013 1.074 SEYAMFI 1.175 1.049 1.000 1.175 1.232 Agar I 0.927 1.082 0.971 0.954 1.003 Mean 1.101 0.942 0.971 0.954 1.038 114