2. Bankruptcy
When businesses become
insolvent, meaning they
service their debts, they
have two possibilities
Reorganization (Chapter 7)
IR down
Term to maturity up
Some debt exchanged for equity
Liquidation (Chapter 11)
When the company is deemed
to be to far to be saved
4. Risks due to Political and Economic
Situation gas prices .> shift in demand: SUVs and light
Volatility of
trucks to smaller cars
Slowing economic growth ->cars=durable goods->
purchases delayed
Commodities prices -> GM/Ford dependent of steel
and plastics
Cessations of govt incentives on certain vehicles
Geopolitical events such as war of restrictive customs
are bad for the business
Currency
6. 2.20
Company Name Toyota Motor Corporation
2.10 2.10 Volkswagen AG
2.00
Toyota Motor Corporation 1.93 Daimler AG 102,527
1.90 1.88 Tata Motors, Ltd. Corporation
Toyota Motor
1.80 13.764 1.79
Volkswagen AG
400 Volkswagen AG 84,633
1.70 369.928
58.167 General Motors Corporation
8.102 Daimler AG
1.60 76.658 1.62
Honda Motor Company 44,440
350 1.50 1.50 General Motors Corporation
322.045 229.460 Daimler AG
1.40 General Motors Corporation
Daimler AG 30,599
80.094 Ford Motor Company
300 1.30 Ford Motor Company
Fuji Heavy Industries 273.216 Ford Motor Company 24,992
1.20
92.758
149.733
1.10 243.000 FiatHonda Motor Company
S.p.A.
250
Industry Average Fiat S.p.A. 19,069
1.00 213.000
111.863 0.95
0.90 198.348 Nissan Motor
Nissan Motor
200 0.80
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG 186.421 149.021 Honda Motor Company18,662
0.70 0.62
158.201 Fiat S.p.A.
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG
Nissan0.60
150 Motor Nissan Motor 18,128
0.50 0.59 Bayerische Motoren Werke AG
Fuji Heavy Industries
Fiat S.p.A. 100.041 8,466
0.40
100 0.30 Bayerische Motoren Werke AG
146.277 Industry Average
Honda Motor Company
Ford Motor Company
0.20 6,535
148.979
36.364 Tata Motors, Ltd.
50 0.10 Toyota Heavy Industries
Fuji Motor Corporation
General Motors Corporation 27.884 2,045
0.00
Fuji Heavy Industries
0 -0.10 0
Tata Motors, Ltd.
-0.11 1 Volkswagen AGLtd.
Tata Motors,
1,966
-0.20
7.
8. +46.37
+26.44 -20.64 -95.17
+25.97
+8.88 -7.35
-60.49
Years Sept. 2005 to May 2006 May 2006 to July 2006 July 2006 to June 2007 June 2007 to March 2009
Auto & Truck +0% to +26.44% +26.44 to +5.80% +5.80% to +52.17% +52.17% to -43.00%
Manufacturer
+2644 basis points -2064 basis points +4637 basis points -9517 basis points
S&P 500 Index +0% to +8.88% +8.88% to +1.53% +1.53% to +27.50% +27.50% to -32.99%
+888 basis points -735 basis points +2597 basis points -6049 basis points
9.
10. General Motors Corporation
Volume Carmakers Luxury Brands
Chevrolet GM Daewoo GMC Holden Opel Buick Cadillac
Pontiac Vauxhall Saab Wuling Saturn Hummer
11. Ford Motors Company
Volume Carmakers Luxury Brands
Ford Mazda
Mercury Lincoln
Volvo
12. GENERAL
MOTORS
CORPORATION
Dividend Max:
$1.50
Frequent
Dividend Dividend Min:
Moderately Frequent No Dividend
Dividend
$0
FORD
Moderately Frequent
Dividend
MOTORS
COMPANY
Dividend Max:
$12.06
Frequent Dividend Min:
Dividend $0
No Dividend
13. 60% 50 120% 101
50% 101%
50% 100%
1st Quarter
40% 31% 1st Quarter 80%
28%
26% 25% 2nd Quarter
30% 21% 2nd Quarter 60%
20% 3rd Quarter 40% 24% 26% 24% 26% 3rd Quarter
11% 8%
10% 4th Quarter 20% 0% 2% 2% 4th Quarter
0% 0%
Net Sales and Net Income Net Sales and Net Income
Revenue Revenue
46 804
46,519 46,804
50,000 50,000 43,094 43,567
42,383 37,808
38,010
40,000 1st Quarter 40,000
30,778 1st Quarter
30 778 30,000
30,000 2nd Quarter
20,000 2nd Quarter
20,000 10,000 891
3rd Quarter 62 3rd Quarter
10,000 0
4th Quarter -722 4th Quarter
-10,000 Net Sales and Net Income
0 Revenue
-3,251 -20,000
Net Sales and Net Income
-10,000 Revenue -2,542 -9,596 -30,000
-20,000 -15,471 -40,000
-38,963
-38 963
14. $M GM Ford GM Ford
$ % $ % $ % $ %
$M Sales
Net 147 732 GM
100 129 166 Ford100 177 594 GM100 154 379 Ford 100
Cost of good sold -149 723 $
-149 723 -101 % -127 103$
103 -98 % -164 946 $ -93 % -142 587
-142 $ -92%
Gross Profit
Net Sales -1 991 414
-1 -1 100 2 083 406
2 063 2 100 12 648
500 7 100 11 792
11 792
479 8100
Cost of general and
Selling good sold -415 -100
-100 -353 -87
-87 -460 -92
-92 -396 -83
-83
administrative -13 147 -9 -11 356 -9 13 -13 590 -8 -13 660 -9 17
Gross Profit -1 00 53 13 -40 -8 83 17
expenses
Sellingincome and
Other general -8
-40 -10
-10 -60 -15
0 -15 0 -40 0 -8 -59 -12
-2 -12
administrative expenses -610
(expense) net
0 0 -2 400
Other income (expense) -15 748
Operating Income -15 748-19 -11 -9 293
-9 293 -7 -7 -942
-942 -12 -1 -2 -4 268
-4 268 -3-2
-4 -2 -9
net
Interest expenses -884 -1 -1 938 -2 -1 042 -1 -2 252 -1
Operating Income (loss)
Interest income - -59 -14
-14 -14 -3
-3 -12 -2 16 33
0 0 -755 -1 0 0 1 161 1
Interest -expenses
GMAC -7 -2 -27 -7 -9 -2 -30 -6
Income from affiliated
Interest income - GMAC - 0 1 0
0 163 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 389 1 0 0
company
Earnings from continuing
Earnings from -64 -16 -40 -10 -18 -4 -14 -3
operations -16 632 -11 -11 823 -9 -1 984 -1 -4 970 -3
continuing operations
Income Tax -5
-5 -1
-1 0
0 0
0 -103
-103 -21
-21 44 1
1
Income Tax (Loss) from
Net Income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Equity income net of -17 -4 0 0 0 0 3 1
affiliated companies 184 0 0 0 522 0 0 0
tax
Equity income net of tax 1 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 0
Minority interests, net of
Minority interests, net of tax 103 0,3
tax
0 0 0 0 0 0 -406 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Income from continued
Loss before income tax
operations -16 345 0
-16 345 -11 0 -11 823 0
-11 823 -9
-9 0 -1 86813
-1 -1 3
-1 -4 9700
-4 970 -3 0
-3
– automotive
Net earnings -86
-86 -21
-21 -41
-41 -10
-10 -108
-108 -22
-22 -8
-8 -2
-2
15. $M GM Ford GM Ford GM Ford GM Ford
$M $ GM $ Ford $ GM $ Ford GM Ford GM Ford
Net Sales 147 732 $ 129 166 $ 177 594$ 154 379 $ -29 862 -25 213 -17% -16%
Cost Sales
Net of good sold -149 723414 -127 103
406 -164 946 -142 587
500 479 15 -86
223
-86 -73
15 484
-73 -17%
-9%
-17% -15%
-11%
-15%
Gross of good sold
Cost Profit -1 991
-415 2 063
-353 12 648
-460 11 792
-396 -1445639
45 -9 729
43
43 -116%
-10%
-10% -83%
-11%
-11%
Selling general and 39 -30 -98% -36%
Gross Profit -1 53 -40 83 39 -30 -98% -36%
administrative -13 147 -11 356 -13 590 -13 660 443 2 304 -3% -17%
Selling general and
expenses -40 -60 -40 -59 0 -1 -1% 1%
Other income expenses
administrative
-610 0 0 -2 400 -610 2 400 #DIV/0! -100%
(expense) net (expense)
Other income
-19 -7 -12 -9 -7 1 56% -14%
net
Operating Income -15 748 -9 293 -942 -4 268 -14 806 -5 025 1572% 118%
Interest expenses (loss) -884-59
Operating Income -14
-1 938 -12
-1 042 -2 25216 -47
-47
158 -29
-29
314 394%
394%
-15% -187%
-187%
-14%
Interest income -
Interest expenses 0 -7 -755-27 0 -9 -30
1 161 02 3
-1 916 -31%
0 -11%
-165%
GMAC - income - GMAC -
Interest 1 0 4 1 -2 -9 -68% -100%
Income from affiliated
Earnings from continuing 0 163 0 389 0 552 0 -58%
company -64 -40 -18 -14 -47 -27 264% 197%
operations
Earnings from
Income Tax -16 632 -5 0
-11 823 -103
-1 984 4
-4 970 -1498
98
648 -4
-4
-6 853 -95%
-95%
738% -105%
-105%
138%
continuing operations
Net Income (Loss) from
Income Tax
affiliated companies 0 -17 0 0 0 0 0 3 -17
0 -30 0%
0 -86%
0%
Equity income net of
Equity income net of tax 184 1 0 -1 522 1 0 -1 -1
-338 00 -65%
-65% -31%
0%
tax
Minority interests, net of
Minority interests, net
0,3 0 -1 0 1 0 -127% 0%
tax 103 0 -406 0 509 0 -125% 0%
of tax
Income from continued
Loss before income tax
-16 345 0 0
-11 823 13
-1 868 0
-4 970 -14-13
477 0
-6 853 -100%
775% -78%
138%
–operations
automotive
Net earnings -86 -41 -108 -8 22 -33 -20% 439%
16. Market Segments
GM F
Automotive Financial Automotive Financial
FORD FORD
GMNA GMAC
NORTH AM CREDIT
FORD
GME
SOUTH AM
FORD
GMLAAM
EUROPE
GMAP VOLVO
FORD APA
18. Risks due to production techniques
Decline in market -> increase of cost/unit. Companies
cannot reduce their capacity as quickly as they lose
market shares
Suppliers’ distress: Giving up financial support to them
for avoiding bankruptcy
Single source of components: Bankruptcy from the sole
supplier
Overcapacities (17M/year), very competitive market
Company incentives = pricing pressure -> Op.
Margin decreasing
19. Risks due to production techniques
Decline in market -> Comparative Stock
Price
Suppliers’ distress & Single source of
components:
Ford: 1,600 today; 750 in the future
GM: One large source of components
Delphi: Bankrupt since 2005
Op. Margin: Income Statement
Overcapacity of 24M in 2008, industry-wide
(est.)
Pricing pressure due to Japanese and Korean
competitors
20. Risks from Strategy and R&D
Lack of reliability or defects in new vehicles
Warranty stable , no delays, no recalls
New laws:
Environmental law: California
Capacity to succeed in implanting brands in
emerging countries:
Ford Fiesta, Ford Edge and Ford Transit (last two
,good)
Lower than anticipated acceptance of new
vehicles.
21. Risks linked to Credit Companies
Credit Risk: Paymt Default & collection and servicing
problems
Residual Risks: Lower-than-expected salvage value =
lower transaction profitability
Strong competition: banks/other financial institutions
Int’l: Credit Companies = Banks
Reserve Required Ratios
Residential Mortgage: Weakness
Interest Rates Change: Strong impact on the
consolidated company
Banks and Portfolios
22. Income Statement 2yr Horizontal
Analysis
Total Company 2008 2007 V$ V%
$M GM Ford GM Ford GM Ford GM Ford
$ $ $ $
Net Sales 148 979 146 277 179 984 172 455 -31 005 -26 178 -17% -15%
Cost of good sold -149 311 -127 103 -165 573 -142 587 16 262 15 484 -10% -11%
Gross Profit -332 19 174 -14 411 29 868 14 079 -10 694 -98% -36%
Selling general and administrative expenses -14 253 -21 430 -14 412 -21 169 159 -261 -1% 1%
Other income (expense) net -6 699 -2629 -4 308 -3 068 -2 391 439 56% -14%
Operating Income (loss) -21 284 -4 885 -4 309 5 631 -16 975 -10 516 394% -187%
Interest expenses -2 345 -9 682 -3 388 -10 927 1 043 1 245 -31% -11%
Interest income - GMAC - 424 0 1 316 389 -892 -389 -68% -100%
Earnings from continuing operations -23 205 -14 567 -6 381 -4 907 -16 824 -9 660 264% 197%
Income Tax -1 766 -63 -37 162 1 294 35 396 -1 357 -95% -105%
Net Income (Loss) from affiliated companies -6 183 163 0 1 161 -6 183 -998 0% -86%
Equity income net of tax 186 -214 524 -312 -338 98 -65% -31%
Minority interests, net of tax 108 0 -406 0 514 0 -127% 0%
Income from continued operations 0 9 4 565 41 -4 565 -32 -100% -78%
Net earnings -30 860 -14 672 -38 732 -2 723 7 872 -11 949 -20% 439%
23. Income Statement 2yr horizontal
Analysis
Automotive 2008 2007
$M GM Ford GM Ford
$ % $ % $ % $ %
Net Sales 147 732 100 129 166 100 177 594 100 154 379 100
Cost of good sold -149 723 -101 -127 103 -98 -164 946 -93 -142 587 -92
Gross Profit -1 991 -1 2 063 2 12 648 7 11 792 8
Selling general and administrative expenses -13 147 -9 -11 356 -9 -13 590 -8 -13 660 -9
Other income (expense) net -610 0 0 0 0 0 -2 400 -2
Operating Income -15 748 -11 -9 293 -7 -942 -1 -4 268 -3
Interest expenses -884 -1 -1 938 -2 -1 042 -1 -2 252 -1
Interest income - GMAC - 0 0 -755 -1 0 0 1 161 1
Income from affiliated company 0 0 163 0 0 0 389 0
Earnings from continuing operations -16 632 -11 -11 823 -9 -1 984 -1 -4 970 -3
Income Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Equity income net of tax 184 0 0 0 522 0 0 0
Minority interests, net of tax 103 0 0 0 -406 0 0 0
Loss before income tax – automotive -16 345 -11 -11 823 -9 -1 868 -1 -4 970 -3
24. Income Statement 2yr vertical
analysis
Total Company 2008 2007
$M GM Ford GM Ford
$ % $ % $ % $ %
Net Sales 148 979 100 146 277 100 179 984 100 172 455 100
Cost of good sold -149 311 -100 -127 103 -87 -165 573 -92 -142 587 -83
Gross Profit -332 0 19 174 13 -14 411 -8 29 868 17
Selling general and administrative
expenses -14 253 -10 -21 430 -15 -14 412 -8 -21 169 -12
Other income (expense) net -6 699 -4 -2629 -2 -4 308 -2 -3 068 -2
Operating Income (loss) -21 284 -14 -4 885 -3 -4 309 -2 5 631 3
Interest expenses -2 345 -2 -9 682 -7 -3 388 -2 -10 927 -6
Interest income - GMAC - 424 0 0 0 1 316 1 389 0
Earnings from continuing operations -23 205 -16 -14 567 -10 -6 381 -4 -4 907 -3
Income Tax -1 766 -1 -63 0 -37 162 -21 1 294 1
Net Income (Loss) from affiliated
companies -6 183 -4 163 0 0 0 1 161 1
Equity income net of tax 186 0 -214 0 524 0 -312 0
Minority interests, net of tax 108 0 0 0 -406 0 0 0
Income from continued operations 0 0 9 0 4 565 3 41 0
Net earnings -30 860 -21 -14 672 -10 -38 732 -22 -2 723 -2
25. Income Statement 2 yr vertical
analysis
Automotive 2008 2007
$M GM Ford GM Ford
$ % $ % $ % $ %
Net Sales 147 732 100 129 166 100 177 594 100 154 379 100
Cost of good sold -149 723 -101 -127 103 -98 -164 946 -93 -142 587 -92
Gross Profit -1 991 -1 2 063 2 12 648 7 11 792 8
Selling general and administrative
expenses -13 147 -9 -11 356 -9 -13 590 -8 -13 660 -9
Other income (expense) net -610 0 0 0 0 -2 400 -2
Operating Income -15 748 -11 -9 293 -7 -942 -1 -4 268 -3
Interest expenses -884 -1 -1 938 -2 -1 042 -1 -2 252 -1
Interest income - GMAC - 0 0 -755 -1 0 0 1 161 1
Income from affiliated company 0 0 163 0 0 0 389 0
Earnings from continuing operations -16 632 -11 -11 823 -9 -1 984 -1 -4 970 -3
Income Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Equity income net of tax 184 0 0 0 522 0 0 0
Minority interests, net of tax 103 0 0 0 -406 0 0 0
Loss before income tax – automotive -16 345 -11 -11 823 -9 -1 868 -1 -4 970 -3
35. Bond Analysis
Bond Ratings:
Risks and Returns on Different Classes of
•The higher the Securities
risk, the higher
the return
demanded
• Nationally CCC bonds
Recognized BB bonds
Statistical Rating
Rate of Return
A bonds
Organizations
AAA bonds
• Moody’s Short Term
• S&P
US Treasury
Bills
Risk of Investors
36. Bond Analysis - Ford
Even THEY would not buy themselves
- Negative trend
- Speculative Bonds to Substandard Ones
- (Horrible to Very Bad…)
Consequence:
- Difficulty to generate capital to the
Company
- => Bankruptcy
37. Bond Analysis - GM
GM GMAC ResCap
NRSRO
Senior
Corporate Secured Unsecured Outlook Senior Debt Outlook Senior Debt Outlook
DBRS Watch - Watch-
CC CCC (low) CC Negative RD Positive D Positive
Fitch
C CCC C Negative C Developing C Stable
Mood
y’s Ca B3 C Negative CCC Negative CC Negative
S&P Review- Review -
CC CCC C Negative CCC Negative C Negative
47. Banking
GM
General Motors Acceptance Corporation
ResCap
Ford
Ford Credit
48. GMAC vs. GM
Comparative Income Comparative Income &
&Sales 2008 Sales 2007
$200,000 200,000
$150,000
$100,000 100,000
$50,000
0
$0
GMAC GMA Total
-$50,000 GMAC GMA Total -100,000
EBT Financing Revenue EBT Financing Revenue
Comparative Total Comparative Total Assets 2
Liabilities 2 years years
$300,000 $300,000
$200,000 $200,000
$100,000 $100,000
$0 $0
GMAC GMA Total GMAC GMA Total
TL 2008 TL 2007 2008 2007
49. Ford Credit vs. Segments
Comparative Income & Comparative Income &
Sales 2008 Sales 2007
$200,000 200000
$150,000 150000
$100,000 100000
$50,000 50000
$0 0
-$50,000 -50000
Ford Credit Ford Total Ford Credit Ford Total
Automotive Automotive
EBT SALES EBT SALES
Comparative Total Assets 2 Comparative Total Liabilities
years 2 years
$300,000 $300,000
$200,000 $200,000
$100,000
$100,000
$0
Ford Credit Ford Ford Total Assets $0
Automotive FC FA FT
2008 2007 2008 2007
50. Revenue
Consumer 6 737 37% 9 469 45%
Commercial 2 368 13% 2 947 14%
Loans held-for-sale 1 092 6% 1 557 7%
Operating leases 8 198 45% 7 214 34%
Total Financing Revenue 18 395 100% 21 187 100%
Interest expense 11 870 65% 14 776 70%
Depreciation expense on operating lease assets 5 483 30% 4 915 23%
Impairment of investment in operating leases 1 234 7% 0 0%
Net financing revenue/(loss) 192 -1% 1 496 7%
Other Revenue
Servicing fees 1 782 10% 2 193 10%
Amortization and impairment of servicing rights 0 0% 0 0%
Servicing asset valuation and hedge activities,
284 -2% 544 -3%
net
Insurance premiums and service revenue earned 4 329 24% 4 378 21%
Gain/(loss) on mortgage and automotive loans,
1 560 -8% 508 2%
net
Gain on extinguishment of debt 12 628 69% 563 3%
Investment (loss) income 446 -2% 473 2%
Gains on sale of equity-method investments, net 0 0% 0 0%
Other income, net of losses 601 3% 2 732 13%
Total other revenue 17 050 93% 10 303 49%
Total Net Revenue 16 858 92% 11 799 56%
Provision for credit losses 3 683 20% 3 096 15%
Noninterest expenses
Compensation and benefits expense 2 229 12% 2 453 12%
Insurance losses and loss adjustment expenses 2 522 14% 2 451 12%
Other operating expenses 6 505 35% 5 286 25%
Impairment of goodwill and other intangible
58 0% 455 2%
assets
Total noninterest expense 11 314 62% 10 645 50%
EBT 1 861 10% 1 942 -9%
Income tax expense/(benefit) 7 0% 390 2%
Net income/(loss) 1 868 10% 2 332 -11%
51. Revenue
Consumer 6 737 9 469 45% -29%
Commercial 2 368 2 947 14% -20%
Loans held-for-sale 1 092 1 557 7% -30%
Operating leases 8 198 7 214 34% 14%
Total Financing Revenue 18 395 21 187 100% -13%
Interest expense 11 870 14 776 70% -20%
Depreciation expense on operating lease assets 5 483 4 915 23% 12%
Impairment of investment in operating leases 1 234 0 0% N/A
Net financing revenue/(loss) 192 1 496 7% -113%
Other Revenue
Servicing fees 1 782 2 193 10% -19%
Amortization and impairment of servicing rights 0 0 0% 0%
Servicing asset valuation and hedge activities, net 284 544 -3% -48%
Insurance premiums and service revenue earned 4 329 4 378 21% -1%
Gain/(loss) on mortgage and automotive loans, net 1 560 508 2% -407%
Gain on extinguishment of debt 12 628 563 3% 2143%
Investment (loss) income 446 473 2% -194%
Gains on sale of equity-method investments, net 0 0 0% 0%
Other income, net of losses 601 2 732 13% -78%
Total other revenue 17 050 10 303 49% 65%
Total Net Revenue 16 858 11 799 56% 43%
Provision for credit losses 3 683 3 096 15% 19%
Noninterest expenses
Compensation and benefits expense 2 229 2 453 12% -9%
Insurance losses and loss adjustment expenses 2 522 2 451 12% 3%
Other operating expenses 6 505 5 286 25% 23%
Impairment of goodwill and other intangible assets 58 455 2% -87%
Total noninterest expense 11 314 10 645 50% 6%
EBT 1 861 1 942 -9% -196%
Income tax expense/(benefit) 7 390 2% -102%
Net income/(loss) 1 868 2 332 -11% -180%