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J Forensic Sci, January 2010, Vol. 55, No. 1
                                                                                                         doi: 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2009.01255.x
PRESIDENT’S EDITORIAL                                                                                 Available online at: interscience.wiley.com


Thomas L. Bohan, Ph.D., J.D.



Strengthening Forensic Science: A Way
Station on the Journey to Justice


  ‘‘In any legitimate justice system, … truth must play a para-            forensic science and the efforts of the Innocence Project. It was
  mount and integral role…. The very survival of the rule of               quickly found, again largely through efforts of the Innocence Pro-
  law depends not only on a justice system that administers the            ject, that the wrongful convictions arose from incompetent defense
  law fairly, but a system that is just by being well-grounded in          attorneys, unethical prosecutors, misguided reliance on ‘‘eyewit-
  … truth….[M]ore research is needed in the techniques and                 nesses,’’ and flawed forensic testimony, occurring either singly or
  science already in use. With the importance of forensic sci-             in combination. Scores, and then hundreds, of persons were discov-
  ence to truth and justice, the science employed and relied               ered to have been convicted of heinous crimes of which they were
  upon by judges and juries must be valid. It does not matter              innocent. Even as this depressing news was being assimilated, we
  how well forensic scientists abide by testing protocols, or              realized that we were seeing but a small fraction of the total: those
  how reliable the techniques are, if the underlying science               wrongful convictions discoverable through forensic DNA analysis.
  does not actually reveal what the expert says it does. Method            Criminal acts leaving no DNA, by far the largest category, are
  validation studies and new research must be on-going even in             prosecuted using the same procedures and evidence types that led
  the area of traditional forensic disciplines.’’1 [Emphases               to the known wrongful convictions. For example, eyewitness testi-
  added.]—Kenneth E. Melson, President, AAFS, 2003–2004                    mony, in spite of mountains of peer-reviewed studies showing it to
                                                                           be perhaps the least reliable type of evidence, continues to be
   Melson’s words, published 6 years before Strengthening Forensic
Sciences in the United States: A Path Forward2 was issued saying
much the same thing, made me immensely proud to be a member
of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences. So much so that I
placed a special order for reprints of his essay to show others what
the Academy stood for. The absence of any anti-defense-bar atti-
tude in this writing by a career federal prosecutor further strength-
ened its explicit message: the duty of all in the criminal justice
system is to seek out the truth and act on it. Although, because of
the inherent asymmetry of the system, this duty falls more heavily
on prosecuting attorneys than on defense attorneys, it must be the
touchstone for all forensic science practitioners. Their allegiance,
our allegiance, must always be to the truth. Although this may
seem too obvious to merit stating, this is clearly not the case as
long as we have crime lab directors who speak of defense attorneys
as ‘‘the enemy.’’ It is not the case as long as anyone questioning an
established forensic practice is labeled a ‘‘defense hack’’ or told
‘‘well, I don’t know how you stand on law enforcement.’’ As one
whose work in criminal matters is with the prosecution as often as
with the defense, I find these attitudes reprehensible and the antith-
esis of the view set out in the words cited at the top of the page.
The counterpart of these attitudes on the civil side is found in
forensic practitioners who, at the behest of their employing attor-
neys, destroy their notes or never create them, in order to avoid
writing down a truth that can in some scenario assist the other side.
   Melson’s essay appeared as we were beginning to grasp the
magnitude of the wrongful convictions brought to light through

    1
      President’s Editorial—The Journey to Justice, J Forensic Sci, July
2003, Vol. 48, 705.
    2
      National Research Council, The National Academies, National Acade-     FIG. 1—Thomas L. Bohan, President, 2009–2010, American Academy of
mies Press, Washington, DC, 2009.                                          Forensic Sciences.


Ó 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences                                                                                                   5
6   JOURNAL OF FORENSIC SCIENCES

considered the strongest evidence by most laypersons and many             defense attorney in the hair-morphology travesty-of-justice trial had
judges. Consequently, it remains an effective means of gaining            possessed the then-widespread knowledge that basic hair morphol-
convictions even in the absence of other evidence and even when           ogy is worthless for individualizing hair specimens to a defendant?
the testimony is from a single witness. Unfortunately, it is going        What if the judge in the Willingham case in Texas5 had been
to be a long time before this flaw in our justice system can be           aware that scientific studies had eliminated from fire investigators’
eliminated, and longer still before consideration will be given to        armamentarium the rule-of-thumb analysis of the prosecution’s
reversing single-eyewitness convictions. Another problem that will        expert witnesses?
be difficult to solve in the short term is the conjunction of incom-         In summary, what is needed immediately is a series of validation
petent defense work and incompetent forensic testimony. Although          investigations. A validation investigation is a threshold study to
appeals claiming insufficient assistance of counsel do get consid-        determine whether a technique or theory the scientific validation of
ered, the odds against success for such efforts are very high. This       which has been questioned has in fact already been scientifically
leaves forensic science as the single part of the system amenable to      validated. This is a necessary first step in each instance, given that
near-term improvement.                                                    the practitioners of the respective techniques claim with some heat
   Although the trials known to have led to wrongful outcomes             that their practices have already been validated. In order to secure
rarely turned on forensic testimony alone, there appears to be a          their needed cooperation in studies aimed at finding the limits of
reasonable likelihood that, had the forensic work been correct, the       reliability of these practices, a body with the recognition and
outcomes in those trials would have been different. Therefore,            respect of the National Academy of Sciences must first investigate
flawed forensic testimony cannot be absolved from blame just              whether the practice has already been validated, and, if so, what
because it was not the sole cause of the bad outcome. For the most        the limits of its validity are. More importantly, once the investiga-
part, that flawed testimony was delivered by an incompetent or            tion is complete, this body must publish a definitive report on its
overreaching practitioner. However, the National Academy of Sci-          conclusions. These threshold studies would not involve any experi-
ences report that arose in part from concern about wrongful convic-       mentation or lab research, but rather an examination of all the prior
tions quite rightly went further than simply calling for better           studies (especially those reported in the refereed literature), that the
supervision and certification of forensic practitioners. Stating that     practitioners believe have established the validity of their practices.
many common crime-lab forensic practices had never been scientif-            There will be three possible outcomes to the threshold studies.
ically validated, the report called for research to determine which       One, an unlikely one, will be that the practice in question has
practices were valid and over how broad a range of application the        already been validated. The second, more likely one, is that it has
validity existed. It has been noted that during the months immedi-        not been validated, at least with regard to determining its range of
ately following its release, the report did not have a significant        validity. The third outcome would be, like that of the ‘‘bullet-trac-
effect on criminal trials, including those in which the prosecution       ing’’ method study, a finding that the theory or practice was inva-
was relying on the same types of evidence criticized by the report.       lid. A particularly important potential example of the latter is the
This lack of immediate response may be due to the conclusory              so-called shaken baby syndrome theory. If the critics of this foren-
manner in which the criticisms were framed. Although, given the           sic theory are correct, there will be thousands of convictions and
breadth of the study, this brevity with respect to specific practices     plea bargains to be re-examined. Yes, plea bargains, since most
is understandable, it means that more review work needs to be             such bargains are entered into by defendants convinced that if they
done. An illustration of what remains to be done is provided by           go to trial they will be convicted and sentenced to much longer
other National Academy of Sciences reports on forensic practices,         terms than they can obtain through a deal with the prosecutor.
such as that regarding the use of polygraphs3 and that regarding the         It should be obvious to all that the forensic practices that have
use of trace-metal analysis in bullets.4 Those earlier reports tick off   come under serious challenge should be subjected to these valida-
all of the studies claimed to have validated the practice in question,    tion studies. Calling for them is not a defense scheme for getting
then describe strengths and weaknesses of those studies as support        criminals released or acquitted on a technicality. It is an effort to
for opining that the practice in question has not been validated.         prevent persons from being wrongfully convicted, to release those
With respect to the pattern-based techniques the latest report criti-     who have been, and to redirect law enforcement resources to the
cized, the tabulation of prior studies needs to be done. As it stands,    apprehension of the actual criminals.
the report’s conclusions about lack of validation have not been              The National Academy of Sciences February 2009 report drew
accepted by practitioners of the questioned practices, most of whom       the complaint from some that it had attacked the field of forensic
continue to cite studies that they claim constitute validation. This      science and, what in a perverse manner carried much the same
contrasts, for example, with the effect of the cited National Acad-       message, the assertion that it had not attacked forensic science.
emy of Sciences report on trace-metal analysis of bullet lead. Once       Given the definition accepted by the AAFS among many others
that report issued, there was an immediate and complete cessation         that forensic science is the application of science to questions aris-
of attempts to proffer evidence based on the use of the criticized        ing in law, it is difficult to see how it is possible to attack ‘‘forensic
technique.                                                                science.’’ The report was in fact a criticism of the U.S. justice sys-
   The studies that Melson, the National Academy of Sciences, and         tem for its misuse of science and of the individuals and laboratories
the American Academy of Forensics Sciences call for will have             who would misuse science. It was an attack on those who use non-
several benefits in addition to the direct one of establishing the        validated applications of science in prosecuting defendants. It was
ranges of validity of commonly used forensic theories and tech-           an attack on those practitioners who claim zero error rate for their
niques. For example, they will help call the attention of judges and      work and those who assert that only they are qualified to determine
trial attorneys to basic forensic facts. What if the Montana judge or     whether their methods are valid.
                                                                             Another concern raised by those resisting a systemic examination
    3
     The Polygraph and Lie Detection, National Research Council, The
                                                                          of questioned forensic practices is that this examination will lead to
National Academies, National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2003.
    4                                                                         5
     Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence, National Research Council, The              For one account of this tragic case, see TRIAL BY FIRE, by David
National Academies, National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2004.       Grann, page 42, New Yorker, September 7, 2009.
PRESIDENT’S EDITORIAL           7

a disruptive witch hunt or fishing expedition (depending on one’s            limited soft tissues pathologies but no other injuries was shaken
taste in metaphors). This is far from being the case. Although sci-          to death by the last person who held the child when he or she
entists in different forensic specialties may be able to add a few           was conscious. Of all the questioned forensic theories and prac-
practices to the list, I believe that it is fairly complete in terms of      tices, this is the one I would put at the top of the list for the
those practices that have been identified by the National Academy            threshold examination. Of all the currently questioned practices,
of Sciences and others as needing evaluation, that is, those that            this is the only one asserted by a respectable minority of spe-
have come under questioning that is not frivolous. Some examples             cialists to be completely invalid. While a vitriolic dispute con-
of the practices needing threshold studies follow:                           tinues between the pro and con groups, defendants continue to
                                                                             be sentenced to exceedingly long prison terms based on the
• Bite mark analysis used to identify perpetrators who have bitten
                                                                             theory. While the theory’s supporters accuse the doubters of
  their victims, a method the limits of which have never been
                                                                             profiting from defending baby-killers, the doubters label the sup-
  delineated and which probably in the hands of some practitio-
                                                                             porters as zealots lacking any knowledge of physics or of the
  ners is applied far beyond the extent for which any validation
                                                                             scientific method. It is long past time that an authoritative body
  exists.
                                                                             outside the adversarial system examined the underpinnings of
• Tool mark analysis, an extremely broad field, parts of which
                                                                             the theory and published its results.
  can be subject to validation but nevertheless appear never to
  have been studied for this purpose.                                        As people of good will across the criminal justice system have
• Handwriting comparison analysis to determine whether two                grappled with how to implement the strengthening of forensic sci-
  specimens were written by the same person or whether a spe-             ence called for by the National Academy of Sciences, I have
  cific person had written a particular specimen is a field that          been struck by the composition of those invited to partake in this
  since the handing down of the Daubert decision emphasizing              crucial work. In particular, I have been struck by the near-absence
  the need for quantification of reliability has been carrying out a      of scientists from this group. I have heard lobbyists without the
  series of tests to establish the different aspects of reliability in    slightest idea of what scientific research consists of call for
  the described undertakings. In spite of this continuing research,       ‘‘research but not so that it interferes with our solving the most
  there are some practitioners in the field who claim levels of reli-     important problems.’’ I have had the experience of being in a
  ability that have not yet been established.                             roomful of people discussing the form legislation addressing sci-
• Friction ridge analysis for purposes of identification and in par-      entific issues in the forensic arena should take and realizing that I
  ticular latent fingerprint analysis where a small fractional print      was the only person present who had spent any time at all doing
  from a crime scene is compared with databases of full finger-           scientific research. It seems obvious that a broad swath of scien-
  prints, seeking a match that will place a particular individual at      tists should be engaged in examining each forensic technique
  the scene, is a traditional forensic discipline holding one of the      about which serious questions have been raised. In determining
  longest pedigrees. Unfortunately, that long history has been used       the degree, for example, that handwriting comparison analysis has
  by many of its practitioners to resist calls for quantification.        already been validated there should of course be an expert in that
  Contrary to the straw men erected by some of these practitio-           field. However there must also be statisticians and indeed scien-
  ners, calls for quantitative studies do not hinge on a suggestion       tists and engineers familiar with the examination of evidence. As
  that fingerprints are not unique. The studies needed are those of       stated above, this study and the threshold studies in other areas
  the probability, however one wishes to define it, that, as the          will not involve direct research of the type needed to validate the
  practitioners progress from the discovery of a fractional latent        practice in question. Rather, they will be examinations of the pro-
  print to the identification of that print with a particular individ-    fessional literature in the field, including especially that put forth
  ual, an error is made, a false positive occurs. Although initially      by practitioners to support the proposition that validation has
  the Federal Bureau of Investigation was the ideal entity to carry       already taken place. Until an authoritative body such as this has
  out such studies, providing it published its results in the open        reached a conclusion as to what has already been validated and
  refereed literature, I believe that this is no longer the case. Its     what has not, very little progress is likely in the basic validation
  resistance to the very idea that such studies are needed will cast      research. Those tests that will ultimately be indicated are nontriv-
  a shadow on whatever it now undertakes. Unlike those tech-              ial undertakings and will not be undertaken until those who can
  niques that must be evaluated to determine whether they have            carry them out are convinced of their need.
  already been validated, latent fingerprint identification needs            This is a crucial period with respect to forensic science in this
  basic research to determine its limitations with respect to latent-     country. The 2009 National Academy of Sciences report on foren-
  print quality and quantity, and some measure of the probability         sic science in the United States has opened an opportunity for
  of false positives—the type of work that academic research              beneficial change that will soon be gone, gone for the foreseeable
  teams are suited for, providing they can get access to the large        future. We must take advantage of it to erect the framework now
  fingerprint databases now in existence. Nevertheless, an evalua-        that will instill and ensure a continuing robustness throughout all of
  tion by the National Academy of Sciences or an equivalent               forensic science. The result of this work will be to the immeasur-
  entity of the work that has already been done would provide a           able benefit of us all, because it will be of benefit to the American
  valuable boost to any program for additional research.                  system of justice.
• Shaken baby syndrome theory, by whatever name it morphs
  into, which holds that a small dead child displaying certain

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Strengthening forensic science a way station on the way to justice

  • 1. J Forensic Sci, January 2010, Vol. 55, No. 1 doi: 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2009.01255.x PRESIDENT’S EDITORIAL Available online at: interscience.wiley.com Thomas L. Bohan, Ph.D., J.D. Strengthening Forensic Science: A Way Station on the Journey to Justice ‘‘In any legitimate justice system, … truth must play a para- forensic science and the efforts of the Innocence Project. It was mount and integral role…. The very survival of the rule of quickly found, again largely through efforts of the Innocence Pro- law depends not only on a justice system that administers the ject, that the wrongful convictions arose from incompetent defense law fairly, but a system that is just by being well-grounded in attorneys, unethical prosecutors, misguided reliance on ‘‘eyewit- … truth….[M]ore research is needed in the techniques and nesses,’’ and flawed forensic testimony, occurring either singly or science already in use. With the importance of forensic sci- in combination. Scores, and then hundreds, of persons were discov- ence to truth and justice, the science employed and relied ered to have been convicted of heinous crimes of which they were upon by judges and juries must be valid. It does not matter innocent. Even as this depressing news was being assimilated, we how well forensic scientists abide by testing protocols, or realized that we were seeing but a small fraction of the total: those how reliable the techniques are, if the underlying science wrongful convictions discoverable through forensic DNA analysis. does not actually reveal what the expert says it does. Method Criminal acts leaving no DNA, by far the largest category, are validation studies and new research must be on-going even in prosecuted using the same procedures and evidence types that led the area of traditional forensic disciplines.’’1 [Emphases to the known wrongful convictions. For example, eyewitness testi- added.]—Kenneth E. Melson, President, AAFS, 2003–2004 mony, in spite of mountains of peer-reviewed studies showing it to be perhaps the least reliable type of evidence, continues to be Melson’s words, published 6 years before Strengthening Forensic Sciences in the United States: A Path Forward2 was issued saying much the same thing, made me immensely proud to be a member of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences. So much so that I placed a special order for reprints of his essay to show others what the Academy stood for. The absence of any anti-defense-bar atti- tude in this writing by a career federal prosecutor further strength- ened its explicit message: the duty of all in the criminal justice system is to seek out the truth and act on it. Although, because of the inherent asymmetry of the system, this duty falls more heavily on prosecuting attorneys than on defense attorneys, it must be the touchstone for all forensic science practitioners. Their allegiance, our allegiance, must always be to the truth. Although this may seem too obvious to merit stating, this is clearly not the case as long as we have crime lab directors who speak of defense attorneys as ‘‘the enemy.’’ It is not the case as long as anyone questioning an established forensic practice is labeled a ‘‘defense hack’’ or told ‘‘well, I don’t know how you stand on law enforcement.’’ As one whose work in criminal matters is with the prosecution as often as with the defense, I find these attitudes reprehensible and the antith- esis of the view set out in the words cited at the top of the page. The counterpart of these attitudes on the civil side is found in forensic practitioners who, at the behest of their employing attor- neys, destroy their notes or never create them, in order to avoid writing down a truth that can in some scenario assist the other side. Melson’s essay appeared as we were beginning to grasp the magnitude of the wrongful convictions brought to light through 1 President’s Editorial—The Journey to Justice, J Forensic Sci, July 2003, Vol. 48, 705. 2 National Research Council, The National Academies, National Acade- FIG. 1—Thomas L. Bohan, President, 2009–2010, American Academy of mies Press, Washington, DC, 2009. Forensic Sciences. Ó 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences 5
  • 2. 6 JOURNAL OF FORENSIC SCIENCES considered the strongest evidence by most laypersons and many defense attorney in the hair-morphology travesty-of-justice trial had judges. Consequently, it remains an effective means of gaining possessed the then-widespread knowledge that basic hair morphol- convictions even in the absence of other evidence and even when ogy is worthless for individualizing hair specimens to a defendant? the testimony is from a single witness. Unfortunately, it is going What if the judge in the Willingham case in Texas5 had been to be a long time before this flaw in our justice system can be aware that scientific studies had eliminated from fire investigators’ eliminated, and longer still before consideration will be given to armamentarium the rule-of-thumb analysis of the prosecution’s reversing single-eyewitness convictions. Another problem that will expert witnesses? be difficult to solve in the short term is the conjunction of incom- In summary, what is needed immediately is a series of validation petent defense work and incompetent forensic testimony. Although investigations. A validation investigation is a threshold study to appeals claiming insufficient assistance of counsel do get consid- determine whether a technique or theory the scientific validation of ered, the odds against success for such efforts are very high. This which has been questioned has in fact already been scientifically leaves forensic science as the single part of the system amenable to validated. This is a necessary first step in each instance, given that near-term improvement. the practitioners of the respective techniques claim with some heat Although the trials known to have led to wrongful outcomes that their practices have already been validated. In order to secure rarely turned on forensic testimony alone, there appears to be a their needed cooperation in studies aimed at finding the limits of reasonable likelihood that, had the forensic work been correct, the reliability of these practices, a body with the recognition and outcomes in those trials would have been different. Therefore, respect of the National Academy of Sciences must first investigate flawed forensic testimony cannot be absolved from blame just whether the practice has already been validated, and, if so, what because it was not the sole cause of the bad outcome. For the most the limits of its validity are. More importantly, once the investiga- part, that flawed testimony was delivered by an incompetent or tion is complete, this body must publish a definitive report on its overreaching practitioner. However, the National Academy of Sci- conclusions. These threshold studies would not involve any experi- ences report that arose in part from concern about wrongful convic- mentation or lab research, but rather an examination of all the prior tions quite rightly went further than simply calling for better studies (especially those reported in the refereed literature), that the supervision and certification of forensic practitioners. Stating that practitioners believe have established the validity of their practices. many common crime-lab forensic practices had never been scientif- There will be three possible outcomes to the threshold studies. ically validated, the report called for research to determine which One, an unlikely one, will be that the practice in question has practices were valid and over how broad a range of application the already been validated. The second, more likely one, is that it has validity existed. It has been noted that during the months immedi- not been validated, at least with regard to determining its range of ately following its release, the report did not have a significant validity. The third outcome would be, like that of the ‘‘bullet-trac- effect on criminal trials, including those in which the prosecution ing’’ method study, a finding that the theory or practice was inva- was relying on the same types of evidence criticized by the report. lid. A particularly important potential example of the latter is the This lack of immediate response may be due to the conclusory so-called shaken baby syndrome theory. If the critics of this foren- manner in which the criticisms were framed. Although, given the sic theory are correct, there will be thousands of convictions and breadth of the study, this brevity with respect to specific practices plea bargains to be re-examined. Yes, plea bargains, since most is understandable, it means that more review work needs to be such bargains are entered into by defendants convinced that if they done. An illustration of what remains to be done is provided by go to trial they will be convicted and sentenced to much longer other National Academy of Sciences reports on forensic practices, terms than they can obtain through a deal with the prosecutor. such as that regarding the use of polygraphs3 and that regarding the It should be obvious to all that the forensic practices that have use of trace-metal analysis in bullets.4 Those earlier reports tick off come under serious challenge should be subjected to these valida- all of the studies claimed to have validated the practice in question, tion studies. Calling for them is not a defense scheme for getting then describe strengths and weaknesses of those studies as support criminals released or acquitted on a technicality. It is an effort to for opining that the practice in question has not been validated. prevent persons from being wrongfully convicted, to release those With respect to the pattern-based techniques the latest report criti- who have been, and to redirect law enforcement resources to the cized, the tabulation of prior studies needs to be done. As it stands, apprehension of the actual criminals. the report’s conclusions about lack of validation have not been The National Academy of Sciences February 2009 report drew accepted by practitioners of the questioned practices, most of whom the complaint from some that it had attacked the field of forensic continue to cite studies that they claim constitute validation. This science and, what in a perverse manner carried much the same contrasts, for example, with the effect of the cited National Acad- message, the assertion that it had not attacked forensic science. emy of Sciences report on trace-metal analysis of bullet lead. Once Given the definition accepted by the AAFS among many others that report issued, there was an immediate and complete cessation that forensic science is the application of science to questions aris- of attempts to proffer evidence based on the use of the criticized ing in law, it is difficult to see how it is possible to attack ‘‘forensic technique. science.’’ The report was in fact a criticism of the U.S. justice sys- The studies that Melson, the National Academy of Sciences, and tem for its misuse of science and of the individuals and laboratories the American Academy of Forensics Sciences call for will have who would misuse science. It was an attack on those who use non- several benefits in addition to the direct one of establishing the validated applications of science in prosecuting defendants. It was ranges of validity of commonly used forensic theories and tech- an attack on those practitioners who claim zero error rate for their niques. For example, they will help call the attention of judges and work and those who assert that only they are qualified to determine trial attorneys to basic forensic facts. What if the Montana judge or whether their methods are valid. Another concern raised by those resisting a systemic examination 3 The Polygraph and Lie Detection, National Research Council, The of questioned forensic practices is that this examination will lead to National Academies, National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2003. 4 5 Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence, National Research Council, The For one account of this tragic case, see TRIAL BY FIRE, by David National Academies, National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2004. Grann, page 42, New Yorker, September 7, 2009.
  • 3. PRESIDENT’S EDITORIAL 7 a disruptive witch hunt or fishing expedition (depending on one’s limited soft tissues pathologies but no other injuries was shaken taste in metaphors). This is far from being the case. Although sci- to death by the last person who held the child when he or she entists in different forensic specialties may be able to add a few was conscious. Of all the questioned forensic theories and prac- practices to the list, I believe that it is fairly complete in terms of tices, this is the one I would put at the top of the list for the those practices that have been identified by the National Academy threshold examination. Of all the currently questioned practices, of Sciences and others as needing evaluation, that is, those that this is the only one asserted by a respectable minority of spe- have come under questioning that is not frivolous. Some examples cialists to be completely invalid. While a vitriolic dispute con- of the practices needing threshold studies follow: tinues between the pro and con groups, defendants continue to be sentenced to exceedingly long prison terms based on the • Bite mark analysis used to identify perpetrators who have bitten theory. While the theory’s supporters accuse the doubters of their victims, a method the limits of which have never been profiting from defending baby-killers, the doubters label the sup- delineated and which probably in the hands of some practitio- porters as zealots lacking any knowledge of physics or of the ners is applied far beyond the extent for which any validation scientific method. It is long past time that an authoritative body exists. outside the adversarial system examined the underpinnings of • Tool mark analysis, an extremely broad field, parts of which the theory and published its results. can be subject to validation but nevertheless appear never to have been studied for this purpose. As people of good will across the criminal justice system have • Handwriting comparison analysis to determine whether two grappled with how to implement the strengthening of forensic sci- specimens were written by the same person or whether a spe- ence called for by the National Academy of Sciences, I have cific person had written a particular specimen is a field that been struck by the composition of those invited to partake in this since the handing down of the Daubert decision emphasizing crucial work. In particular, I have been struck by the near-absence the need for quantification of reliability has been carrying out a of scientists from this group. I have heard lobbyists without the series of tests to establish the different aspects of reliability in slightest idea of what scientific research consists of call for the described undertakings. In spite of this continuing research, ‘‘research but not so that it interferes with our solving the most there are some practitioners in the field who claim levels of reli- important problems.’’ I have had the experience of being in a ability that have not yet been established. roomful of people discussing the form legislation addressing sci- • Friction ridge analysis for purposes of identification and in par- entific issues in the forensic arena should take and realizing that I ticular latent fingerprint analysis where a small fractional print was the only person present who had spent any time at all doing from a crime scene is compared with databases of full finger- scientific research. It seems obvious that a broad swath of scien- prints, seeking a match that will place a particular individual at tists should be engaged in examining each forensic technique the scene, is a traditional forensic discipline holding one of the about which serious questions have been raised. In determining longest pedigrees. Unfortunately, that long history has been used the degree, for example, that handwriting comparison analysis has by many of its practitioners to resist calls for quantification. already been validated there should of course be an expert in that Contrary to the straw men erected by some of these practitio- field. However there must also be statisticians and indeed scien- ners, calls for quantitative studies do not hinge on a suggestion tists and engineers familiar with the examination of evidence. As that fingerprints are not unique. The studies needed are those of stated above, this study and the threshold studies in other areas the probability, however one wishes to define it, that, as the will not involve direct research of the type needed to validate the practitioners progress from the discovery of a fractional latent practice in question. Rather, they will be examinations of the pro- print to the identification of that print with a particular individ- fessional literature in the field, including especially that put forth ual, an error is made, a false positive occurs. Although initially by practitioners to support the proposition that validation has the Federal Bureau of Investigation was the ideal entity to carry already taken place. Until an authoritative body such as this has out such studies, providing it published its results in the open reached a conclusion as to what has already been validated and refereed literature, I believe that this is no longer the case. Its what has not, very little progress is likely in the basic validation resistance to the very idea that such studies are needed will cast research. Those tests that will ultimately be indicated are nontriv- a shadow on whatever it now undertakes. Unlike those tech- ial undertakings and will not be undertaken until those who can niques that must be evaluated to determine whether they have carry them out are convinced of their need. already been validated, latent fingerprint identification needs This is a crucial period with respect to forensic science in this basic research to determine its limitations with respect to latent- country. The 2009 National Academy of Sciences report on foren- print quality and quantity, and some measure of the probability sic science in the United States has opened an opportunity for of false positives—the type of work that academic research beneficial change that will soon be gone, gone for the foreseeable teams are suited for, providing they can get access to the large future. We must take advantage of it to erect the framework now fingerprint databases now in existence. Nevertheless, an evalua- that will instill and ensure a continuing robustness throughout all of tion by the National Academy of Sciences or an equivalent forensic science. The result of this work will be to the immeasur- entity of the work that has already been done would provide a able benefit of us all, because it will be of benefit to the American valuable boost to any program for additional research. system of justice. • Shaken baby syndrome theory, by whatever name it morphs into, which holds that a small dead child displaying certain