Elections are upon us, and the races are getting closer and meaner as November 2nd approaches. Here at Alterian, we chose to follow a total of 20 highly contested Senate and Gubernatorial races, gauging the tone and volume of conversation around them. It is, indeed, a cut-throat competition as social media commentaries are mounting from both supporters and opposition of the candidates from each state. Will controversial business icon Carly Fiorina topple incumbent California senator Barbara Boxer? Is there hope for victory for independent, Charlie Crist in the Florida Senate race? How is the Illinois Gubernatorial race shaping up as 3 candidates are butting heads over the coveted role, and will Paladino’s unique antics succeed in his race with Cuomo for the Gubernatorial position in New York. Our dive into the pre-election buzz will explore the relationship between the number of candidates’ fans and followers in social media and their likelihood for victory.

1. Political Smackdown: Senate and Gubernatorial
Candidates Battle It Out on Social Media
Presented By: Jim Reynolds
jim.reynolds@alterian.com
twitter.com/jimmyrey

2. Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races
 Setup
 Senate Candidates from IL, CA, FL, DE, CT, KY, LA, NV, OH & PA
 Gubernatorial Candidates from AZ, CA, CO, FL, IL, MA, TX, PA & NY
 Categories
 State
 Race (Senate or Governor)
 Party Affiliation (Independent, Republican or Democrat)

3. Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races
Analysis
 560K social media
mentions of
candidates since
3rd week of
September
 Volume steadily
increasing leading
up to elections
 Conversation
follows a weekly
trend with
decrease in
chatter on
weekends

4. Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races
Analysis
 Microblogs – 36%
 Social Networks –
20%
 Media Types –
Other (Mainstream
media) – 19.3%
 Message boards –
18.8%
 All Other Types –
Less than 10%

5. Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races
Analysis:
 Microblog (Twitter) & Social Network (Facebook et al) mentions follow identical patterns
 Message Board / Forum has picked up volume significantly leading up to the election

6. Election 2010 – Senate Races
Number of Mentions Chart
charlie melancon
rob portman
lee fisher
david vitter
Alexi giannoulias
richard blumenthal
kendrick meek
pat toomey
mark kirk
joe sestak
marco rubio
jack conway Percentage of Conversation
linda mcmahon
charlie crist Democrat
carly fiorina 35%
chris coons
barbara boxer Republican
rand paul 61%
sharron angle Independent
4%
harry reid
christine o'donnell
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
Analysis:
 Christine O’Donnell has had over 100K mentions since mid-September
 Harry Reid & Sharron Angle, both Senatorial candidates from Nevada rank 2nd & 3rd, respectively
 Overall, the Republicans lead the conversation largely because of Christine O’Donnell (DE)

7. Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races
Number of Mentions Chart
scott cohen
tom horner
john hickenlooper
dan onorato
terry goddard
mark dayton
dan maes
tom corbett
charlie baker
tom emmer
tim cahill
bill brady
pat quinn
deval patrick Percentage of Conversation
tom tancredo
alex sink
jan brewer
Democrat
bill white 40%
andrew cuomo
Republican
rick scott
55%
rick perry
carl paladino
Independent
jerry brown 5%
meg whitman
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000
Analysis
 Meg Whitman is the second most talked about candidate overall (after Christine O’Donnell)
 Gubernatorial races in California, New York & Texas are most discussed
 In the Senate races, there is more conversation about Republicans but not by a large margin

8. Election 2010 – Senate Races
Ohio
Louisiana
Illinois
Analysis
Pennsylvania
 Delaware is the
Connecticut
most talked about
Senate Race since
Florida
mid-September due
largely to Christine
California
O’Donnell
Kentucky
 Interestingly,
Nevada & Kentucky
Nevada
both beat California
Delaware
 Ohio’s Senate race is
the least discussed
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 on social media

9. Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races
Pennsylvania Analysis
Minnesota  Unlike the CA
Senate race, the
Illinois Gubernatorial race
in California is more
Colorado frequently discussed
than the races in NY
Arizona & TX combined
Massachusetts  New York’s race has
had a major
Florida increase recently
due to a
Texas controversial Carl
Paladino
New York
 Surprisingly,
California Pennsylvania ‘s
Senate race is in last
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 place

10. Election 2010 – Top 5 Senate Races
Kentucky:
Rand Paul
Jack Conway
Delaware:
Chris Coons
Christine O’Donnell
Florida:
Kendrick Meek
Marco Rubio
Charlie Crist
Nevada:
Sharron Angle
California: Harry Reid
Carly Fiorina
Barbara Boxer

11. California Senate Race
Carly Fiorina vs. Barbara Boxer
Average percent of posts
120.00% Favorability Chart
100.00% 90.56%
80.00%
60.00%
89.64%
40.00% Analysis
20.00%
0.00%  Barbara Boxer leads
Carly Fiorina in
Percentage of Conversation
favorability*
43%  The volume of
1400
Number of Mentions Chart 57% conversation around
1200 Boxer and Fiorina is
1000 roughly the same,
but their favorability
800
ratings differ
600 barbara boxer
400 carly fiorina  This race appears to
be leaning towards
200
the incumbent Boxer
0
* Favorability is measured by diving
the sum of positive and neutral
mentions by the sum of positive,
neutral and negative mentions

12. Florida Senate Race
Marco Rubio vs. Kendrick Meek vs. Charlie Crist
Favorability Chart
120.00% 89.76%
100.00%
80.00% 92.85%
60.00%
40.00% 91.75%
20.00%
0.00% Average percent of posts
Analysis
Percentage of Conversation  Kendrick Meek
leads all candidates
1200 19%
Number of Mentions Chart 44%
in favorability while
1000 Charlie Crist is last
37%
800
 Interestingly, Crist
600
has the largest
marco rubio
volume of
kendrick meek
400 conversation while
charlie crist Meek has the least
200
0  The volume would
suggest that the
race is between
Rubio & Crist

13. Delaware Senate Race
Christine O'Donnell vs. Chris Coons Average percent of posts
Favorability Chart
120.00% 88.47
%
100.00%
80.00%
86.84
60.00% %
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
Analysis
 Chris Coons has a
10000 Percentage of Conversation
Number of Mentions Chart slight advantage
9000
16% over Christine
8000 O’Donnell in terms
7000 of favorability *
84%
6000
5000  O’Donnell
christine o'donnell
4000 dominates the
chris coons
3000 conversation with
2000 84% of the total
1000 posts
0
 This race is leaning
toward Chris Coons
*Negative commentary is tied to
O’Donnell

14. Kentucky Senate Race
Rand Paul vs. Jack Conway Average percent of posts
Favorability Chart
120.00%
100.00% 83.62%
80.00%
60.00%
40.00% 87.05%
20.00%
0.00%
Percentage of Conversation
Analysis
3500 26%
Number of Mentions Chart  Jack Conway has a
3000
74%
4% favorability lead
2500 to Rand Paul
2000
 Rand Paul owns 74%
1500 rand paul
of the conversation
1000 jack conaway
vs. 26% by Jack
500 Conway
0
 If Rand Paul
continues to trend
upward in
favorability he could
win the race.

15. Nevada Senate Race
Average percent of posts
Sharron Angle vs. Harry Reid
Favorability Chart
120.00%
100.00% 87.99%
80.00%
60.00% 86.61%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
Percentage of Conversation
sharron angle harry reid Analysis
4500 43%
Number of Mentions Chart  Harry Reid leads
4000 57%
3500 Sharron Angle in
3000
favorability
2500
 Harry Reid also has
2000 sharon angle a 14% lead in
1500 harry reid volume of
1000
conversation
500
0  This race looks very
good for Harry Reid

16. Election 2010 – Top 5 Gubernatorial Races
Texas:
Rick Perry California:
Bill White Jerry Brown
Meg Whitman
Massachusetts:
Tim Cahill
Deval Patrick
Charlie Baker
Florida: New York:
Rick Scott Andrew Cuomo
Alex Sink Carl Paladino

17. California Gubernatorial Race
Meg Whitman vs. Jerry Brown Average percent of posts
Favorability Chart
100.00%
90.00% 87.39%
80.00%
70.00%
60.00% 85.05%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Percentage of Conversation Analysis
7000  Jerry Brown leads
45%
Number of Mentions Chart Meg Whitman in
6000 55%
favorability
5000
4000
 Whitman is beating
Brown by 5% in
3000 meg whitman volume of
2000 jerry brown conversation
1000
 This is one of the
0 most challenging
races to predict

18. New York Gubernatorial Race
Andrew Cuomo vs. Carl Paladino
Favorability Chart
100.00%
90.00% Average percent of posts
80.00%
70.00% 88.81%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
85.21%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Analysis
 Andrew Cuomo
Percentage of Conversation leads Carl Paladino
6000
Number of Mentions Chart by more than 3% in
5000 45% favorability
55%
4000
 Paladino leads
3000 Cuomo by 10% in
carl paladino volume of
2000 andrew cuomo conversation, due
1000
largely to a recent
spike
0
 This race appears to
be in favor of
Cuomo

19. Texas Gubernatorial Race
Favorability Chart Rick Perry vs. Bill White Average percent of posts
120.00%
100.00% 91.49%
80.00%
60.00% 90.53%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
Percentage of Conversation Analysis
900  Bill White has a
Number of Mentions Chart
800 42% slight advantage
700 58% over Rick Perry in
600 favorability
500
400 rick perry
 Perry has a 16%
300 lead over Bill White
bill white
200 in chatter
100
0  It appears that
Democrat White has
a chance in the
Texas race

20. Florida Gubernatorial Race
Favorability Chart Rick Scott vs. Alex Sink
Average percent of posts
120.00%
100.00%
80.00% 91.17%
60.00% 90.68%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
Percentage of Conversation
Analysis
1200
Number of Mentions Chart  Alex Sink has a slight
1000 36% .6% lead over Rick
800
64% Scott in favorability
600  Rick Scott racks up
rick scott
400
nearly 30% more
alex sink conversations than
200 Alex Sink
0
 This race appears to
be in Rick Scott’s
favor

21. Massachusetts Gubernatorial Race
Charlie Barker vs. Deval Patrick vs. Tim Cahill
120.00% Favorability Chart Average percent of posts
100.00% 91.11%
80.00%
93.07%
60.00%
92.30%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
Analysis
 Deval Patrick leads
800
Number of Mentions Chart Percentage of Conversation
in favorability over
700
the other 2
candidates but is
600 27% 43% followed closely by
500 30% Charlie Barker & Tim
400 Cahill
300
 Deval Patrick is in
200 charlie baker the lead with
100 deval patrick volume of
0
tim cahill conversation as well
 This race seems to
be in Patrick’s favor