1. NO LOST CAUSES
Inside the transformation of Colombia
Remarks by Álvaro Uribe Vélez
January 2014

2. Issues to address
1. A historical problem
2. Facing the problem: From campaign to
Government
3. Generating change in times of crisis
4. Colombia current challenge
5. Peace process with FARC

3. 1. A historical problem
“Every creative journey begins with a problem”
Colombia in 2002 was a fragile State
The Colombian Paradox: a long and stable democracy in a permanent threat
from terrorist groups, drug dealers and organized crime…
Security
28.837 homicides
2882 kidnappings
69 homicides per 100.000 habitants
1645 terrorist attacks
350 mayors out of their municipalities
158 municipalities without police
Economy
Average Economic Growth 1994-2001:
2.1%
GDP per Capita: US$2377
Investment as % of GDP: 16.5%
Exports: US$11.975 million
FDI: US$2.100 million
Inflation: 6.99%
Fiscal balance: -3.2%
Social
Unemployment: 16.2%
Health Coverage: 25 million Colombians.
Pension affiliates: 4.5 million
Poverty:57%
Education Coverage: Primary 97%, High
school: 57%, University: 24%.
Mobil Phone Lines: 4.6 million
Internet coverage: 1.9 million

4. 1. A historical problem
Colombia faced a Confidence Deficit
The elusive quest for peace
Many governments exhausted
all their political capital
attempting to reach peace
through political dialogue…the
result was military
strengthening from illegal
armed groups and a rapid
growth in their criminal
activities (68% thought the
country was going in a
negative track)
Terrorist Groups (Guerrillas
and Paramilitaries) had
created a sense of defeat in
the Colombian people.
Fear impacted in the
Colombian people Mindset
The lack of investment
The drain of human capital
The sense of danger in
Colombian roads.
The expansion of massive
kidnappings created an
emotional domino effect

5. 2. Facing the problem
Vision
Policy
PRINCIPLES
Results
Innovation Communication
Leadership

6. 2. Facing the problem
VISION
Our vision was to build a Comunitary State:
 CONFIDENCE was our main goal
 Without Confidence:
 No investment
 Unemployment
 Lack of opportunities
 Brain Drain (Young people wanted to leave without a return
ticket)
 Three main Policies:
 Democratic Security
 Investment with fraternity
 Social cohesion
 For the First Time a National Development Agenda had Security as a driver of Development
(Security = Investment = Social Cohesion)
 No more a debate between left and right

7. 2. Facing the problem
POLICY
• Democratic Manifiesto (100 Points)
Democratic
Security
Security for All
Fight all forms of crime
Security without Martial Law
Security with liberties and Human
Rights
Victims recognition
Investment with
Social
Responsibility
Investor Security (Human, Legal and
Political)
Sound Macroeconomics
Incentives
Access to markets
Competitiveness Factors
(Infrastructure, Connectivity,
Banking,)
Social Cohesion
Education Revolution
Health with coverage and quality
Access to credit (Banca de
oportunidades)
Vocational Training
Conditional Cash Transfers

8. 2. Facing the problem
Principles
Political
Pedagogy
Macro Vision &
Build a citizen
coalition
Micro
Management
Permanent
dialogue with
citizenship.
Beyond
traditional
politics
(Colombia
FIRST)
Accountability
Security as a
Democratic
Value

9. 2. Facing the problem
Messages
Security as a Democratic Value
Strong hand with a big heart
To work, work and work
Against corruption and
traditional politics
Communicati
on

10. 2. Facing the problem
Innovation
Before Innovation
President with the
People(Consejos Communitarian)
Macro vision & Micro Management
Three eggs
Face problems with regular
citizens
Pedagogic policy formulation
Secretaries appointed by
experience
4 year term secretaries
Austerity
Citizen Governance

11. 2. Facing the problem
Innovation in
Security
Recovering Security
Macro Vision
and Detailed
Follow up:
•Daily
commitment
to monitor
security in
every region.
•How citizens
had the
President
Mobile Phone
Number
Early Victories
:
•Road
caravans
•Massive
kidnappings
are over
Strategic Force
Integration
•All Forces
working
together.
•Share success
National
Informant
Network
•Citizens
became active
in denouncing
criminals
•Reward
Mondays
Commander in
Chief assumes
responsibility
•The Granda
Story
•Operation
Fenix: Fire the
Air Force
Commander
•Operation
Jaque: The
pressure for a
humanitarian
exchange and
the final
outcome
Smart
Weapons:
•The
importance of
strategic
warfare
Extradition:
•The decision
to extradite
the
Paramilitary
Kingpins

12. 2. Facing the Problem
Leadership
Mobilization
Drivers
Weekly Security
Councils
306
Communitarian
Councils
52 Economic
dialogues
Result Driven
Administration
Leading by
example
Direct
Democracy
(Sate of opinion)
Determination
to find solutions
Communication
with the truth

13. 2. Facing the problem
Leadership: Tough Decisions
 Moments of truth:
1. Nogal Bomb: Bogota cries but never surrenders.
2. Killing of 11 regional senators: Facing their families when
rejecting humanitarian exchanges.
3. The rescue of Fernando Araujo.
4. Meeting Chavez after the Bombardment in Ecuador: a
debate in live T.V.
5. The rescue of National University President.
6. The story of Emmanuel.
7. The military agreement with the U.S.
8. Operations FENIX and Jaque.
9. Extradition of the paramilitary leaders.

14. 2. Facing the problem: Investment
Confidence
We had a consistent and coherent investment promotion agenda…
We made Colombia a viable country for FDI due to a multiplicity of factors…
Structural Elements
Political Stability
Sound Macroeconomic
Management
Human, Political and Legal
Security
Competitive
elements
Investment incentives
Access to markets (Canada,
EU, EEUU, MERCOSUR, etc)
Free Trade Zones
Logistical advantages
Legal stability agreements
Comparative
elements
Investment Grade
Stable institutions
Growing internal
demand
Complementary
Human Capital
New World Class
Sectors incentives
Strong financial
system

15. 2. Facing the problem: Social Cohesion
Social Cohesion was our ultimate objective
Social
Cohesion
National
Learning
System –
SENA-Conditional
Education
Coverage and
quality
Cash Transfers
Access to
Finance
(Banca de
Oportunidades,
Micro-Credit)
Financial
Sector
Downscaling
Public Utilities
Coverage
Rural
Development
Breaking the
communication
and technology
gap

16. 2. Facing the problem: Oil and gas case
story
The case of the oil sector in Colombia: Change is possible
In 2002 it was believed that
by 2009 Colombia oil
production will not be able
to attend national demand
In 2003 the oil and gas
sector restructuring was
designed
ECOPETROL undertook a
strategy shift to become a
more competitive and
professional corporation
The National Hydrocarbon
Agency was created
From 2002 to 2010
successful exploration
passed from 40% to 61.4%
Between 2002 and May
2010 447 new fields were
explored
In 2007 ECOPETROL was
capitalized by 10% through
local capital markets.
486.000 Colombians
bought shares
Between 2002 and 2010
341 exploration and
production contracts were
signed
Seismic exploration in the
country (Onshore, Offshore
and 2 dimensions)
increased by more than
250%
Colombia is currently close
to produce 1 million oil
barrels per day
Success triggers
Security: Investment,
exploration
Government Reform: New
ECOPETROL and ANH
Investment target policies:
New players and new
exploration and production
contracts

17. 2. Facing the problem
The combination of our Policies produced significant results: Lowest violence levels in two decades,
highest levels of social coverage in Colombian History and highest levels of Exports and FDI in more than
Security Economy
Indicator 2002 2010
Homicides 28.838 15000
Kidnappings 2.882 228
Homicides per
100K Habitants
69 35
Terrorist attacks 1.645 250
Municipalities
without mayors
presence
350 0
Municipalities
without police
158 0
Indicator 2002 2010
Average
Economic
Growth
2.1% 4.3%
GDP per
Capita
2.377 5300
Invest %
GDP
16.5% 24.6%
Exports US$11.00
0
US$
39.000
FDI US$2.100 US$ 7.000
Inflation 6.9% 2.5%
Social
Indicator 2002 2010
Unemployment 16.2% 11.6%
Health Coverage 25.1
million
43.1
million
Pension affiliates 4.5
million
7.1
million
Poverty 57% 37%
Education coverage
(Primary, Hs, University)
97%
57%
24%
100%
79.4%
35.5%
Mobile phone users 4.6
million
lines
41
million
lines
5 decades.
Results

18. 2. Facing the problem
Results
 Leadership, governance based on citizen support and political Will, helped built
significant historical changes in strategic sectors:
 Reform the oil and gas sector:
1. Colombia is close to produce 1 million barrels per day from 250.000 in 2002.
2. Ecopetrol Reform
3. Created the National Hydrocarbon Agency
 Reform the Telecom Sector:
1. Restructure the Colombian Telecommunications Agency
 Reform the Colombian Social Security Agency
 More than 2000 criminals were extradited
 Paramilitary structures were dismantled
 FARC suffered its biggest historical defeats
 Colombia experienced its largest historical FDI flows
 Biggest historical reduction in illicit crops
 More than 10 FTA’s signed and negotiated
 Largest historical health and education coverage
 Largest historical credit expansion
 Largest historical tourism flows to the country

19. 2. Facing the problem: our vision for the
financial sector
High investment
levels
The role of
governments for
financial services
expansion and
private sector
development
Inclusive and
sustainable
social policies
Middle class
expansion
Sound
Rule of Law
Macroeconomic
performance

20. 2. Facing the problem: our vision for the
financial sector
Policies
and
initiatives
Bank of
opportunities
Micro-finance
expansion.
Consumption
credit
expansion
Credit Card
Penetration
Bancarization
Portfolio
Quality
Financial services in Colombia 2002-2010

21. 2. Facing the problem: our vision for the
financial sector
Colombian Financial Sector Penetration 2002-2010: Quantity and Quality
Indicators 2002 2010
Delinquency rates 9.5% 4%
Coverage for bad loans 80% 125%
Solvency 13.8% 15.2%
Financial inclusion, quality of life and consumption….
Sales 2002 2010
Motorcycles 73.000 470.000
Refrigerators 628.000 1.4 million
Cars 56.630 300.000
Computers 500.000 2 million

22. 2. Facing the problem: our vision for the
financial sector
Bank of opportunities: Lessons learned
Public-Private Alliance
Government provides the regulatory framework and pro market incentives
to insure sustainable and profitable financial products
Private sector expand coverage, products and services to the non
Why Bank of Opportunities
financially included population.
Correct market failures Social and private sector improvement.
Principles
Sustainable interventions for long term
sustainability
Functional elements
Account opening red
information systems
Partners
Do not make sustainable unsustainable projects
Non Financial
Intermediaries
Saving Accounts
tape reduction
State of the art
Never distort markets
Differential interest
rates
Mobile Banking
Non Financial intermediaries Banks NGO’s Cooperatives

23. 3. Change in times of crisis
Lessons
Lincoln
• Get out of the office
• Honesty
• Courage
• Strong Hand
• Commit to results
• Preach a vision
• Talk to people
directly
Kotter
• Honesty
• Energy
• Competence
Moss Kanter
• Consistency
• Congruence
• Competence
• Caring

24. Security
Maintain Macro-Vision and
Micro-Management
Continue dismantling all
terrorist organizations
Continue dismantling drug
cartels apparatus
Strengthen Citizen Security
agendas with local
authorities
Economic
Face new trends of
currency appreciation
Maintain and increase FDI
flows (Security, incentives
and stability rules)
Fiscal Policy to face new
countercyclical challenges
Increase tax collections
Expand new trade markets
through FTA’s
Social
Cohesion
Fight labor informality and
create quality jobs
Insure education and health
quality
Expand vocational training
coverage
Create Entrepreneurial
Family Transfers program
Political
Judicial reform
Strengthen Democratic
Center
Improve local institutional
capacity
New law implementation
(Victims and land)
Prevent the emergence of
populist movements
4. Colombia current
challenges

25. 5.Peace talks in Colombia
1. Defining peace:
 Colombian National Seal has two important concepts: Liberty
and Order
 A peaceful country requires the right exercise of individual
liberties and a general environment of institutional and social
order
 In 2002 Colombia lacked both Concepts:
 28.000 homicides
 2800 Kidnappings
 1645 terrorist attacks
 350 Municipalities without majors
 Our Democratic Security Policy was built to restore
institutional order and protect the exercise of individual
liberties. It was a policy for peace not a policy for war. The
great evidence is that by 2010 homicides were reduced
50%, kidnappings 80% and terrorist attacks by 90%

26. 5.Peace talks in Colombia
2. Our Democratic Security Policy was based on Strong
Hand and Big Heart.
 We conceived Universal Demobilization for all members of
illegal armed groups.
 We confronted all illegal armed groups with the same
determination and open the door for peace processes. Under
clear conditions defined in the Peace, Truth and Reparation
Law.
 The peace process with AUC was based on:
 Cease of illegal activities
 International verification (OAS)
 Incarceration
 Anyone who did not cooperate or continued with illegal activities
will lose the privileges and be extradited if any extradition request
existed.
 No eligibility for those accused for crimes against humanity or
crimes different than political delinquent practices.

27. 5.Peace talks with FARC
 Prevent Big Failures today:
 Negotiation without seizure of criminal activities
 Negotiating Policy with weapons on the table clearly
affects Colombian Democratic Values
 Allowing political participation to individuals
responsible for crimes against humanity is a wrong
message for our democracy
 No imprisonment
 Allowing dictatorial regimes that affect liberties and
support FARC, as guarantors is a bad signal

28. 5. Peace talks in Colombia
 The Peace process that I would support:
What Colombia
thinks
68% of Colombians are not willing to
pardon crimes committed by
terrorist organizations
78% of Colombians are against no
prison sanctions for terrorists
72% of Colombians are against
political participation by terrorist
groups
My opinions
No impunity for crimes against
humanity
Justice, peace and reparation
Immediate release of kidnapped
people
Unilateral cease of criminal activities
My opinions
International verification of
disarmament
No policy agenda on the table
Reinsertion agenda

29. Final Thoughts
1. Human problems require human solutions
2. Our strategy worked because it was
conceived by the people, by the people for
the people.
3. Our esence was pedadogy not demagogy
4. Macro Vision and Micro Management are
esential to succed in times of crisis

30. www.alvarouribevelez.co
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