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CHALLENGES TO PLANS FOR MODERN HIGH
SPEED HIGH CAPACITY RAILWAY
DEVELOPMENT IN KENYA AND THE REGION


PRESENTATION TO
THE US AND LOCAL
BUSINESS
COMMUNITY
NDUVA MULI
MANAGING DIRECTOR
KENYA RAILWAYS

17/05/12
ITEMS OF INTEREST
Long distance railway development plans
  – Mombasa – Kampala/Kisumu
  – LAPPSET
  – Central line
  – The Great Equatorial Land Bridge
Commuter rail development plans
  – Nairobi
  – Coast Region
  – Lake Region
Challenges
LONG DISTANCE RAILWAYS – REGIONAL
          CONNECTIONS
LONG DISTANCE RAILWAYS – THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR
LONG DISTANCE RAILWAYS:
THE GREAT EQUATORIAL LAND BRIDGE
LONG DISTANCE RAILWAYS: TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS
      Item                       Specification
1.    Design Standard            AREMA
2.    Gauge                      1,435 mm (standard gauge)
3.    Maximum gradient           1.00%
4.    Maximum curvature          1 degree (1,740 metres radius)

5.    Axle loading               32.5 tonnes
6.    Loading gauge              Suitable for double stacking of containers, double deck
                                 coaches and electrification at 25 KV 50 Hz

7.    Freight trains maximum     120 kph; 10,000 tonnes trains
      speed and capacity

8.    Passenger trains maximum
                       180 kph but infrastructure designed to achieve 220 kph
      speed            without modification
9.    Signalling       No line-side structures
10.   Communication    Fibre optic and/or micro wave backbone
11.   Environment      Compliant
11.   Motive power     High capacity diesel locomotives initially, electrification
                       in the long run
   DISCUSSED AND AGREED WITH UGANDA RAILWAYS AND
12. IT                 Comprehensive information and passenger security
   ETHIOPIAN RAILWAYS systems inside the stations and in the coaches.
NAIROBI COMMUTER RAIL FOOTPRINT
THE AIRPORT LINE FOOTPRINT
COAST REGION COMMUTER RAIL FOOTPRINT
COAST REGION PHASE 1 COMMUTER RAIL FOOTPRINT
LAKE REGION COMMUTER RAIL FOOTPRINT
TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS FOR THE NAIROBI COMMUTER
                   RAIL PROJECT

       Item                     Specification
 1.    Design Standard          Kenya Railways
 2.    Gauge                    1,000 mm (metre gauge)
 3.    Maximum gradient         1.5%
 4.    Maximum curvature        10 degree (175 metres radius)
 5.    Axle loading             18 tonnes
 6.    Loading gauge            Suitable for double deck coaches and third rail
                                electrification at Max 1.5 KV DC
 7.    Commuter trains          90 kph
       maximum speed
 8.    Coach capacity           160 passengers: 60 seated, 100 standing

 9.    Signalling               No line-side structures
 10.   Communication            Fibre optic and/or micro wave backbone
 11.   Environment              Compliant
 12.   Motive power and train   Diesel locomotives and coaching stock in push-pull
       formation                formation, electrification in the long run
 13.   IT                       Comprehensive information and passenger security
                                systems inside the stations and in the coaches.
ESTIMATED COSTS
FROM             TO               ≈ US$
                                  MILLION
MOMBASA          KAMPALA/KISUMU        7,500

LAMU             JUBA                  5,200
NAIROBI          ADDIS ABABA           6,000
NAIROBI COMMUTER RAIL SERVICES          350

KISUMU COMMUTER RAIL SERVICES           750

MOMBASA COMMUTER RAIL SERVICES         1,200
CHALLENGES TO DEVELOPING RAILWAY PROJECTS
Considerations:
1. Very large and expensive projects – billions of US$;
2. Have long incubation period requiring tenacity;
3. Challenges include:
   – Buy-in by stakeholders
   – Securing the railway corridors and locations for workshops, depots
     and passenger stations;
   – Identifying funding for infrastructure rolling stock
     provision and operations
   – Fast tracking procurement process of the various items
   – Identifying suitable source of energy
   – Providing railway expertise
   – Uncoordinated development
   – Environmental and social issues
FUNDING IDENTIFICATION
POSSIBLE SOURCE                        COMMENTS
Private sector for rolling stock and   This is now the trend in railway and other
operational logistics                  infrastructure operations

Development partners                   Buy-in for the project being pursued

Private investors                      Will require GoK guarantees, which could
                                       be constrained by level of public debt to
                                       GDP ratio
Government budget                      Insufficient, constrained by other
                                       compelling needs
Railway development fund – set Insufficient but could be used to
up by GoK and funded from fuel securitise loans by GoK
levy, grants and donations

    Recommendation: GoK to pursue a G-to-G arrangement with a
Government tohaving financial and technical capability; G-to-G to be supported
    government Government (G- Promising, already applied for roads
to-G) arrangement a Railway Development Fund
    by GoK budget and                development
TRACTION
•   Steam – obsolete
•   Diesel – initially
•   Electrification – in the long term
•   ELECTRIFICATION PREFERRED
OPTIONS FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION
 Renewable/s
   –   Solar
   –   Wind
   –   Sea waves
   –   Hydro
   –   Geothermal
 Fossils
   – Coal
   – Petroleum (diesel, heavy diesel and black oil)
   – Natural gas (methane)
 Unclear
NUCLEAR PREFERRED – SAFE, CLEAN AND
  PROVEN TECHNOLOGY
TOP UNCLEAR ENERGY COUNTRIES
COUNTRY         NO. UNITS     CAPACITY (MW) PERCENT SHARE
U.S.                    104            101,465         19.3
France                   58             63,130         77.7
Japan                    50             44,215         18.1
Russia                   33             23,643         17.6
Korea Rep.               23             20,671         34.6
India                    20              4,391          3.7
Canada                   18             12,604         15.3
U.K.                     17              9,703         15.7
China                    16             11,816          1.9

Ukraine                  15            13,107           47.2

Sweden                   10             9,326           39.6
Germany                   9            12,068           17.8
Spain                     8             7,567           19.5

Taiwan, China             6             5,018           19.0

South Africa              2             1,830            5.2
ENERGY SOURCES INDICATIVE COST COMPARISONS
  TYPE          BUILD    ENERGY COST     ENERGY COST
                (US$/KW) (US$/MWH)       (KSHS/KWH)


  Gas Turbine        420          63.1            5.0

  Coal fired        1,290         94.5            7.6

  Wind              1,208         97.0            7.7
  Hydro and petroleum power generation not included
  Geothermal    1,880           101.7             8.1
  due to numerous unrelated variables in the cost
  matrix
  Nuclear       2,081           113.9             9.1
CONCLUSION
None of the challenges is insuperable
Railway development in the region is an idea whose
 time has come; nothing can stop it; friends will support
 it and assist to develop it; sceptic will be persuaded to
 join the believers.
Electric traction is the better option;
For Kenya and the region, nuclear energy could be
 considered
There is commercial opportunity in the investing into
 large nuclear and coal power generation plants
THANKS

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Kenya railways presentation

  • 1. CHALLENGES TO PLANS FOR MODERN HIGH SPEED HIGH CAPACITY RAILWAY DEVELOPMENT IN KENYA AND THE REGION PRESENTATION TO THE US AND LOCAL BUSINESS COMMUNITY NDUVA MULI MANAGING DIRECTOR KENYA RAILWAYS 17/05/12
  • 2. ITEMS OF INTEREST Long distance railway development plans – Mombasa – Kampala/Kisumu – LAPPSET – Central line – The Great Equatorial Land Bridge Commuter rail development plans – Nairobi – Coast Region – Lake Region Challenges
  • 3. LONG DISTANCE RAILWAYS – REGIONAL CONNECTIONS
  • 4. LONG DISTANCE RAILWAYS – THE CENTRAL CORRIDOR
  • 5. LONG DISTANCE RAILWAYS: THE GREAT EQUATORIAL LAND BRIDGE
  • 6. LONG DISTANCE RAILWAYS: TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS Item Specification 1. Design Standard AREMA 2. Gauge 1,435 mm (standard gauge) 3. Maximum gradient 1.00% 4. Maximum curvature 1 degree (1,740 metres radius) 5. Axle loading 32.5 tonnes 6. Loading gauge Suitable for double stacking of containers, double deck coaches and electrification at 25 KV 50 Hz 7. Freight trains maximum 120 kph; 10,000 tonnes trains speed and capacity 8. Passenger trains maximum 180 kph but infrastructure designed to achieve 220 kph speed without modification 9. Signalling No line-side structures 10. Communication Fibre optic and/or micro wave backbone 11. Environment Compliant 11. Motive power High capacity diesel locomotives initially, electrification in the long run DISCUSSED AND AGREED WITH UGANDA RAILWAYS AND 12. IT Comprehensive information and passenger security ETHIOPIAN RAILWAYS systems inside the stations and in the coaches.
  • 8. THE AIRPORT LINE FOOTPRINT
  • 9. COAST REGION COMMUTER RAIL FOOTPRINT
  • 10. COAST REGION PHASE 1 COMMUTER RAIL FOOTPRINT
  • 11. LAKE REGION COMMUTER RAIL FOOTPRINT
  • 12. TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS FOR THE NAIROBI COMMUTER RAIL PROJECT Item Specification 1. Design Standard Kenya Railways 2. Gauge 1,000 mm (metre gauge) 3. Maximum gradient 1.5% 4. Maximum curvature 10 degree (175 metres radius) 5. Axle loading 18 tonnes 6. Loading gauge Suitable for double deck coaches and third rail electrification at Max 1.5 KV DC 7. Commuter trains 90 kph maximum speed 8. Coach capacity 160 passengers: 60 seated, 100 standing 9. Signalling No line-side structures 10. Communication Fibre optic and/or micro wave backbone 11. Environment Compliant 12. Motive power and train Diesel locomotives and coaching stock in push-pull formation formation, electrification in the long run 13. IT Comprehensive information and passenger security systems inside the stations and in the coaches.
  • 13. ESTIMATED COSTS FROM TO ≈ US$ MILLION MOMBASA KAMPALA/KISUMU 7,500 LAMU JUBA 5,200 NAIROBI ADDIS ABABA 6,000 NAIROBI COMMUTER RAIL SERVICES 350 KISUMU COMMUTER RAIL SERVICES 750 MOMBASA COMMUTER RAIL SERVICES 1,200
  • 14. CHALLENGES TO DEVELOPING RAILWAY PROJECTS Considerations: 1. Very large and expensive projects – billions of US$; 2. Have long incubation period requiring tenacity; 3. Challenges include: – Buy-in by stakeholders – Securing the railway corridors and locations for workshops, depots and passenger stations; – Identifying funding for infrastructure rolling stock provision and operations – Fast tracking procurement process of the various items – Identifying suitable source of energy – Providing railway expertise – Uncoordinated development – Environmental and social issues
  • 15. FUNDING IDENTIFICATION POSSIBLE SOURCE COMMENTS Private sector for rolling stock and This is now the trend in railway and other operational logistics infrastructure operations Development partners Buy-in for the project being pursued Private investors Will require GoK guarantees, which could be constrained by level of public debt to GDP ratio Government budget Insufficient, constrained by other compelling needs Railway development fund – set Insufficient but could be used to up by GoK and funded from fuel securitise loans by GoK levy, grants and donations Recommendation: GoK to pursue a G-to-G arrangement with a Government tohaving financial and technical capability; G-to-G to be supported government Government (G- Promising, already applied for roads to-G) arrangement a Railway Development Fund by GoK budget and development
  • 16. TRACTION • Steam – obsolete • Diesel – initially • Electrification – in the long term • ELECTRIFICATION PREFERRED
  • 17. OPTIONS FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION  Renewable/s – Solar – Wind – Sea waves – Hydro – Geothermal  Fossils – Coal – Petroleum (diesel, heavy diesel and black oil) – Natural gas (methane)  Unclear NUCLEAR PREFERRED – SAFE, CLEAN AND PROVEN TECHNOLOGY
  • 18. TOP UNCLEAR ENERGY COUNTRIES COUNTRY NO. UNITS CAPACITY (MW) PERCENT SHARE U.S. 104 101,465 19.3 France 58 63,130 77.7 Japan 50 44,215 18.1 Russia 33 23,643 17.6 Korea Rep. 23 20,671 34.6 India 20 4,391 3.7 Canada 18 12,604 15.3 U.K. 17 9,703 15.7 China 16 11,816 1.9 Ukraine 15 13,107 47.2 Sweden 10 9,326 39.6 Germany 9 12,068 17.8 Spain 8 7,567 19.5 Taiwan, China 6 5,018 19.0 South Africa 2 1,830 5.2
  • 19.
  • 20. ENERGY SOURCES INDICATIVE COST COMPARISONS TYPE BUILD ENERGY COST ENERGY COST (US$/KW) (US$/MWH) (KSHS/KWH) Gas Turbine 420 63.1 5.0 Coal fired 1,290 94.5 7.6 Wind 1,208 97.0 7.7 Hydro and petroleum power generation not included Geothermal 1,880 101.7 8.1 due to numerous unrelated variables in the cost matrix Nuclear 2,081 113.9 9.1
  • 21. CONCLUSION None of the challenges is insuperable Railway development in the region is an idea whose time has come; nothing can stop it; friends will support it and assist to develop it; sceptic will be persuaded to join the believers. Electric traction is the better option; For Kenya and the region, nuclear energy could be considered There is commercial opportunity in the investing into large nuclear and coal power generation plants