Key trends until 2020 that will shape the evolution of the passenger rail travel, and its relationships with other modal providers. A presentation by Thomas Drexler, Head of Amadeus Rail

1. European Rail
Travel Trends 2020
Thomas Drexler
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Amadeus Rail

2. scene
Setting the
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3. Objectives of the study
Comprehensive picture of Evaluation of major
Europe’s passenger rail market rail segments
Rail
2020
Identification of six key trends Spotting new business
critical to the success of rail opportunities for railways

4. 20 European countries
95%
of the European
passenger rail market
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5. 3 segments used in the study
High speed rail (>200km/h)
Long distance rail (>100km)
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Short distance

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Data from over 100 national and pan-European
industry and government agencies

7. Europe’s
passenger rail
market
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8. 10.2 billion
passengers transported
in 2011
609 billion
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passenger kilometers

9. 11% pax
Long distance
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29% 6%
High speed Cross-border
based on 2011

10. Russia
Germany
United Kingdom
France
account for
60%
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of European
passenger
volume

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12. Total growth in passenger numbers
since 2000
+54% +54%
+53%
Russia
Poland
Ukraine
+44%
+41%
United Kingdom
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Belgium
-14%
Switzerland -27%
Sweden
Germany -30%
These countries’ passenger
number is growing again since 2011

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14. 6 key trends
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15. 1 Liberalisation
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2018
The first railway PASSENGER PASSENGER
package: access to The third railway package: The fourth railway package:
the trans-European open access rights for open up domestic passenger
network on a non- cross-border rail passenger rail markets to competition
discriminatory basis. services including and enhance quality.
cabotage1 by 2010.
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FREIGHT Should be completed by
The second railway 2016-2018
package: opening of the
rail freight market to
competition as from 1
January 2007.
1 Cabotage is transport of passengers between two points in the same country by a railway registered in another country

16. Liberalisation in Europe
as of 2011
Market closed for commercial
domestic passenger services
Open access, but no external
railways providing domestic
passenger services
Open access with external
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railways providing domestic
passenger services

17. 2 New market entrants
˃ The potential impact of new entrants on the rail market seems
very limited for the 2011-2015 period
˃ e.g.: Yosaria in SK, Leo Express in CZ
˃ Competition is expected to be mainly driven by incumbent rail
operators expanding their activities abroad
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˃ New entrants will be cherry-picking key city pairs

18. 3 Completion of new high speed lines
˃ 5000 km of new high speed
tracks before 2020
˃ From 11,000 km in 2011 to
16,000 km in 2020
660
˃ Spain, Turkey and Russia
followed by France and
293 Germany are the main
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505 countries investing in high-
speed in the next years
650 312
72
1349
1708
New High-Speed tracks to be set up
Rail tracks to be upgraded

19. 4 Multimodal hubs
˃ Only 14 airports are connected to 1
long distance or high-speed rail
services.
˃ Demand exceeds capacity at many
4 1
of Europe’s core airports.
3
1
˃ Under TEN-T, the EU supports the
introduction of multimodal hubs at 2
2
37 key airports by 2030.
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˃ This will provide passenger growth
opportunities for rail operators,
through competition and
cooperation.
Hubs with long-distance (or High-Speed) rail services
Hubs with local / intercity or coach services only

20. 5 Air-Rail and Rail-Rail
Cooperation Stockholm
˃ Greater levels of +many airlines
Air/Rail and Rail/Rail
cooperation needed to
deliver the
Amsterdam Leipzig
seamless passenger Dusseldorf
experience Koln/Bonn
Brussels
that will Frankfurt
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drive up Paris
Strasbourg
passenger volumes Basel
Zurich
+11 airlines
Multi-modal hub
Rail links with special agreements (substitution of air
service by direct rail link)
Cooperation

21. 6 Railways costs
˃ Cost bases expand, rail companies won’t be able to rely upon
external economic factors to improve growth and profitability.
˃ Instead, it will be necessary to innovate and develop new
services, becoming more customer-centric in the process.
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˃ Many railways will have to move away from long term
investments (CAPEX ) towards a more variable coast structure
(OPEX).

22. Conclusion
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23. Conclusion
Continuous growth in passenger rail market
Extensive high speed investments make rail travel
more attractive
Distribution systems grow together
Customers profit from wider distribution and better
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connections
Railways and travel sellers win new customers and
gain more customer loyalty

24. Publication of Rail 2020 study
 White paper publication in
February 2013
 Will be available for free at
www.amadeusrail.net
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25. rail@amadeus.com
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