This document presents a preview of the new version of HunchLab with a focus on geographic modeling. HunchLab 2.0 allows police departments to prioritize resource deployments by using predictive analytics that take into account many data sets and reflect the priorities of the police department. The webinar was recorded on September 25th, 2013.

1. 340 N 12th St, Suite 402
Philadelphia, PA 19107
215.925.2600
info@azavea.com
www.hunchlab.com
2.0 Preview Webinar

2. Predictive Policing

5. Places
People
Patterns
} Prioritization

6. Places
People
Patterns
} Prioritization

7. Places
People
Patterns
} Prioritization

8. What is the number one activity of police
officers in U.S. cities?
It’s driving around aimlessly, burning fossil
fuels, waiting for the next call from the
dispatchers.
Tom Casady
Lincoln, NE

9. Command Officers Analysts

10. Command

11. What’s a commander’s role?

13. It’s the fourth Wednesday

14. It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September

15. It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.

16. It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries

17. It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday.

18. It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday. The Phillies play
an away game this evening.

19. It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday. The Phillies play
an away game this evening. Six bars,

20. It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday. The Phillies play
an away game this evening. Six bars,
three take-out stores,

21. It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday. The Phillies play
an away game this evening. Six bars,
three take-out stores, and a school
are in the neighborhood.

22. It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday. The Phillies play
an away game this evening. Six bars,
three take-out stores, and a school
are in the neighborhood. The forecast
is 73° with partly cloudy skies.

23. It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday. The Phillies play
an away game this evening. Six bars,
three take-out stores, and a school
are in the neighborhood. The forecast
is 73° with partly cloudy skies.
Where do you focus your 2 vehicles?

24. It’s the fourth Wednesday in
September and school is in session.
There were 2 burglaries and 3
assaults yesterday. The Phillies play
an away game this evening. Six bars,
three take-out stores, and a school
are in the neighborhood. The forecast
is 73° with partly cloudy skies.
Where do you focus your 2 vehicles?

25. Predictive Missions
• Multiple crime theories
• Your priorities
• Your resources

26. Demo

31. Command Officers Analysts

32. Officers

33. What’s an officer’s role?

34. Dissemination

35. Map
Dissemination

36. Map PDF
Dissemination

37. Map SidekickPDF
Dissemination

38. Map
• Geographic mission viewer
• View of specific moment in time

42. PDF
• Disseminate via print and email
• Support older mobile devices

46. Sidekick
• Uses GPS location
• Contextual information
• Accessible on MDT, tablet, smartphone

51. Command Officers Analysts

52. Analysts

53. What’s an analyst’s role?

54. Predictive Missions

55. Predictive Missions
• Given
– Specific Time Period
• Day, shift, etc.
– Specific Priorities
• Crime types with specific weightings
– Specific Resources
• Quantity of patrol vehicles, foot patrols, etc.
• Determine
– Optimal areas for patrol

56. • Crime predictions based on:
– Aoristic event times
– Baseline crime levels
• Similar to traditional hotspot maps
– Near repeat patterns
• Event recency (contagion)
– Risk Terrain Modeling
• Proximity and density of geographic features
• Points, Lines, Polygons (bars, bus stops, etc.)
– Collective Efficacy
• Socioeconomic indicators (poverty, unemployment, etc.)
Predictive Missions

57. • Crime predictions based on:
– Routine Activity Theory
• Offender: proximity and concentration of known offenders
• Guardianship: police presence (AVL / GPS)
• Targets: measures of exposure (population, parcels, vehicles)
– Temporal cycles
• Seasonality, time of month, day of week, time of day
– Recurring temporal events
• Holidays, sporting events, etc.
– Weather
• Temperature, precipitation
Predictive Missions

58. Demo

59. Lincoln Example
# Assaults
x
$87,238
# Burglary
x
$13,096
# MVT
x
$9,079
Sum to Predicted Cost of Crime
# Rape
x
$217,866
# Robbery
x
$67,277

60. Patrol Benefit
(Predicted Crime)
Patrol Effort
(Road Length)
÷ =
Patrol
Benefit / Effort
Lincoln Example

61. Patrol
Benefit / Effort
Patrol Effort
(Budget)
Select Best Areas
Subject to ‘Budget’
Lincoln Example

62. Lincoln Example

63. Lincoln Example
# Assaults
x
$87,238
# Burglary
x
$13,096
# MVT
x
$9,079
Sum to Predicted Cost of Crime
# Rape
x
$217,866
# Robbery
x
$67,277

66. Notes
• Intelligence associated with a place
• Polygon, address buffer, etc.
• Displayed on Map and Sidekick

69. Tactics
• Response strategies (the playbook)
• Specific crime types
• Specific locations

77. Command
Predictive Missions

78. Command Officers
Map
PDF
Sidekick
Predictive Missions

79. Command Officers Analysts
Predictive Missions
Notes
Tactics
Map
PDF
Sidekick
Predictive Missions

80. How accurate is it?

81. Testing Results
• Time Period
– 1 period ahead predictions over 28 days
• Models
– HunchLab selected model (ensemble)
– Six baseline models
• Counts
– 28 day
– 56 day
– 364 day
• Kernel Densities
– 28 day
– 56 day
– 364 day
• Metrics

82. Cells ranked highest to lowest
A map represented as a grid of cells
0% 100%
Crime Location

83. Cells ranked highest to lowest
0% 100%

84. Cells ranked highest to lowest
0% 100%
Percent of Patrol Area to Capture All Crimes

85. Cells ranked highest to lowest
0% 100%
Percent of Patrol Area to Capture All Crimes
Average Crime Rank

86. Cells ranked highest to lowest
0% 100%
Percent of Patrol Area to Capture All Crimes
Average Crime Rank
0%
50%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percent of Crimes Captured vs. Percent of Patrol Area

87. Results
• Lincoln, NE
– Assaults
– Burglary
– Motor Vehicle Theft (MVT)
– Rape
– Robbery

88. 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Assault
Burglary
MVT
Rape
Robbery
Percent
of
Patrol
Area
to
Capture
All
Crimes

89. 0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Assault Burglary MVT Rape Robbery
Average
Crime
Rank

90. Results
• Large City
– Burglary
– Theft of Motor Vehicle
– Theft from Motor Vehicle
– Robbery
– Violence
• Limited our model to only crime data

91. 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16
PercentofCrimesCaptured
Percent of Land Area
Burglary

92. 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16
PercentofCrimesCaptured
Percent of Land Area
Theft From Motor Vehicle

93. 0
0.2
0.4
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16
PercentofCrimesCaptured
Percent of Land Area
Theft of Motor Vehicle

94. 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16
PercentofCrimesCaptured
Percent of Land Area
Robbery

95. 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
PercentofCrimesCaptured
Percent of Land Area
Violence

96. Questions
340 N 12th St, Suite 402
Philadelphia, PA 19107
215.925.2600
info@azavea.com
www.hunchlab.com