Country insights for Brazil from BP's Energy Outlook 2035 published in 2014.
We project that by 2035 Brazil will transform itself from an energy importer to an exporter as rising production manages to outpace strong demand growth.
BP Energy Outlook 2035 - Brazil country insights 2014
1. BP Energy Outlook 2035
Brazil
We project that by 2035 Brazil will transform itself from an energy importer to
an exporter as rising production manages to outpace strong demand growth.
Here are a few reasons why:
•
Brazil energy production rises by 98% while
consumption grows by 71%.
•
Demand for all fossil fuels expand led gas
(+144%), oil (+51%), and coal (+21%) while
renewables in power expand by 227% and
hydro by 55%.
•
•
Brazil’s energy mix continues to evolve as
biofuels take market share from oil in
transport and gas replaces coal and hydro in
power generation. However, oil (37%) still
remains the most dominant fuel followed
by hydro (31%) in 2035.
Fossil fuels will account for 54% of Brazilian
energy consumption in 2035, compared to a
global average of 81% as renewables in
power rises to 8%, hydro maintains its 30%
market share, and biofuels account for 6%.
•
Brazil’s share of global demand rises slightly
to 3% in 2035, accounting for the smallest
share of the BRIC countries compared to
China (27%), India (7%), and Russia (5%).
•
Brazil’s demand growth of 71% does
outpace Russia (+20%), matches that of
China (+71%), but lags behind India
(+132%). It is, however, near the nonOECD average of 69%.
•
Brazil’s energy production as a share of
consumption rises from 92% today to
106% by 2035, switching the country from
an importer to an exporter.
•
Brazil increases production of every fuel
with oil (+109%), gas (+178%), hydro
(+55%), renewables in power (+227%), and
biofuels (+127%) all growing significantly.
•
With increases in oil and biofuels production
Brazil will become an exporter and the
largest producer in South America. Natural
gas imports, however, will nearly double
from today’s levels.
•
Energy consumption in power generation
will rise by 80% and while hydro remains
the dominant fuel source, its market share
drops from 77% today to 66% in 3035.
•
Energy in transport grows by 72% and
while oil remains the dominant fuel it loses
market share to biofuels, dropping from
84% to 78%. Biofuels’ 20% market share
remains by far the highest in the world.
•
Brazil’s energy intensity is 18% lower than
today’s level compared to a BRIC average
decline of 45%. Despite slower intensity
improvement, per capita demand is 5%
below the BRIC average.
www.bp.com/energyoutlook