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“Good News” and “Bad News”: Results
of Screening for Diabetes,
Cardiovascular Risk, and Diabetes
Complications in Remote, Rural Alberta.


Kelli Ralph-Campbell, Richard T. Oster, Tracy
Connor, Adrian Jacobs, Agnes Cheng, Suzanne Poirier, MDSi
Field Team

Presented by Ellen L Toth, MD
University of Alberta




                                   Canadian Diabetes Association 2010
Outline
   Brief description of outreach
    activities

   Good news and bad news results

   Discussion
SLICK team
SLICK and MDSI:
Eye photographs
KNOWNS and
   UNKNOWNS
                      MDSi
                              80%
               30
               %

KNOWNS:                     UNKNOWNS:
- have diabetes             screen for risk of
- visits take longer        diabetes and
- need foot and eye exams   cardiovascular risk
SLICK results
December 2OO1 to
June 2OO7
SLICK Activity
                      SLICK                           NON-SLICK
Year       New          Prior      This      New       Prior       This     Total
          Clients       Year       Year     Clients     Year       Year     visits
           per         Clients    Clients    per       Clients    Clients
           Year      seen again    seen      Year       seen       seen
                                  again                again      again
2001        11           0          0         1          0          0        12
2002       804           5          46       180         0          1       1036
2003       396          375         28       231         38         3       1071
2004       354          601         34       292         83         13      1377
2005       202          594         17       323        141         11      1288
2006       202          721         15       286        169         8       1401
2007(to    133          439         1        200        186         0       959
end of
June)
Totals:   2102         2735        141      1513        617         36      7144
Statistical Methodology
For the longitudinal analysis, univariate general linear mixed
effect models with random client effect and fixed time (year)
effect were used for continuous outcome variables.

Logit general linear mixed effect models (binary or
multinomial) with random client effect and fixed time effect
were used for categorical (binary) outcome variables.

Longitudinal analyses for baseline clinical parameters per year
were adjusted for duration of diabetes.
Example
SLICK summary
Clients with diabetes, MDSi,
2OO3-2OO9
Health indicators of returning subjects with diabetes (N
= 180). Values are estimates for the average change per
year with 95% CI.

 BMI

 Waist

 A1c

 Systolic BP

 Diastolic BP

 MAP

 Cholesterol




                -2   -1.5   -1   -0.5   0   0.5   1   1.5   2
Children - Youth
                                                                  a
                                         Estimates of Fixed Effects

Parameter                                                                         95% Confidence Interval
               Estimate     Std. Error       df          t            Sig.      Lower Bound    Upper Bound

Intercept      23.020897     1.363142        30.993     16.888           .000      20.240722       25.801071

abs_days          .006886     .000918        26.184       7.499          .000        .005000         .008773




a. Dependent Variable: New_BMI.
Clients without diabetes,
MDSi, 2OO3-2OO9
 Health indicators of returning subjects without diabetes
 (N = 629). Values are estimates for the average change
 per year with 95% CI.

    BMI

    Waist


    A1c

    Systolic BP

    Diastolic BP

    MAP


    Cholesterol




                   -1.5   -1   -0.5   0   0.5    1          1.5
Children- Youth




                                         Estimates of Fixed Effects a

Parameter                                                                           95% Confidence Interval
               Estimate     Std. Error       df           t             Sig.      Lower Bound    Upper Bound
Intercept      23.020897     1.363142        30.993      16.888            .000      20.240722       25.801071

abs_days          .006886     .000918        26.184       7.499            .000        .005000         .008773




a. Dependent Variable: New_BMI.
Children-Youth
BAD
NEWS:
many way
too high to
MORE
start with
BAD
NEWS: not
decreasing
GOOD
NEWS: not
increasing,
and some
going down
  MDSi results to March
    2010, DRAFT
Outcomes of    Slick adults  MDSi adults
                                           MDSi adults
                                                         BRAID
                                                         adults
                                                                             BRAID
                                                                             children and
                                                                                            MDSi children
                                                                                            and youth
                                           screened for                      youth
selected       with diabetes with diabetes
               (N = 2102     (N = 180)
                                           diabetes (N =
                                                         screened for
                                                         diabetes (N =
                                                                             screened for
                                                                                            screened for
                                                                                            diabetes (N =
                                           629)                              diabetes (N
parameters                                               91)
                                                                             = 32)
                                                                                            83)



BMI

BMI centiles        NA            NA            NA              NA



Waists                                                                           NA


                                                          trend to inc p =
A1c                                                            0.05


BP syst

BP diast

MAP

TC
All Clients


           9


           8          8.21
                             7.69   7.61          7.60   7.58
                                           7.54
           7   7.16


           6
Mean A1c




           5


           4


           3


           2


           1


           0

               2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007

                                    Year
A1c by Year                   At first
                                         clients at 1st
                         (N=2091 Slick at 1st visit)
                   (N=2091 Slick clients              visit!????
           14

           13                                         Slope = -0.143
                                                      p-value=<.0001
           12

           11
Mean A1c




           10

           9

           8

           7

           6

           5

           4
           2001   2002     2003      2004      2005       2006     2007
                                     year
Total Cholesterol by Year
                             (N=1704 Slick clients at 1st visit)
                   11
                                   (N = 1704)
Mean Cholesterol


                   10                                    Slope = -0.158
                    9                                          p-value <.0001
                    8
                    7
                    6
                    5
                    4
                    3
                    2
                    1
                    2001    2002    2003      2004      2005       2006   2007
                                              year
100
             90
             80
percentage




             70
             60
                                            Diet Alone
             50                             Oral
                                             Insulin
             40                             Insulin+Oral
             30
             20
             10
              0
                   <7   7-9   9-12   >=12
Summary
   Seeing improvements:
     A1c
     Weight/ waists
     Total cholesterol
     Blood pressure


   LIMITATIONS
     No   control group
MDSi baseline results

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Screening Reveals Improving Diabetes Indicators but Room for More Progress in Remote Areas

  • 1. “Good News” and “Bad News”: Results of Screening for Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risk, and Diabetes Complications in Remote, Rural Alberta. Kelli Ralph-Campbell, Richard T. Oster, Tracy Connor, Adrian Jacobs, Agnes Cheng, Suzanne Poirier, MDSi Field Team Presented by Ellen L Toth, MD University of Alberta Canadian Diabetes Association 2010
  • 2. Outline  Brief description of outreach activities  Good news and bad news results  Discussion
  • 3.
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  • 6. SLICK and MDSI: Eye photographs
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  • 8.
  • 9. KNOWNS and UNKNOWNS MDSi 80% 30 % KNOWNS: UNKNOWNS: - have diabetes screen for risk of - visits take longer diabetes and - need foot and eye exams cardiovascular risk
  • 10.
  • 12. SLICK Activity SLICK NON-SLICK Year New Prior This New Prior This Total Clients Year Year Clients Year Year visits per Clients Clients per Clients Clients Year seen again seen Year seen seen again again again 2001 11 0 0 1 0 0 12 2002 804 5 46 180 0 1 1036 2003 396 375 28 231 38 3 1071 2004 354 601 34 292 83 13 1377 2005 202 594 17 323 141 11 1288 2006 202 721 15 286 169 8 1401 2007(to 133 439 1 200 186 0 959 end of June) Totals: 2102 2735 141 1513 617 36 7144
  • 13. Statistical Methodology For the longitudinal analysis, univariate general linear mixed effect models with random client effect and fixed time (year) effect were used for continuous outcome variables. Logit general linear mixed effect models (binary or multinomial) with random client effect and fixed time effect were used for categorical (binary) outcome variables. Longitudinal analyses for baseline clinical parameters per year were adjusted for duration of diabetes.
  • 14.
  • 17. Clients with diabetes, MDSi, 2OO3-2OO9 Health indicators of returning subjects with diabetes (N = 180). Values are estimates for the average change per year with 95% CI. BMI Waist A1c Systolic BP Diastolic BP MAP Cholesterol -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
  • 18. Children - Youth a Estimates of Fixed Effects Parameter 95% Confidence Interval Estimate Std. Error df t Sig. Lower Bound Upper Bound Intercept 23.020897 1.363142 30.993 16.888 .000 20.240722 25.801071 abs_days .006886 .000918 26.184 7.499 .000 .005000 .008773 a. Dependent Variable: New_BMI.
  • 19. Clients without diabetes, MDSi, 2OO3-2OO9 Health indicators of returning subjects without diabetes (N = 629). Values are estimates for the average change per year with 95% CI. BMI Waist A1c Systolic BP Diastolic BP MAP Cholesterol -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
  • 20. Children- Youth Estimates of Fixed Effects a Parameter 95% Confidence Interval Estimate Std. Error df t Sig. Lower Bound Upper Bound Intercept 23.020897 1.363142 30.993 16.888 .000 20.240722 25.801071 abs_days .006886 .000918 26.184 7.499 .000 .005000 .008773 a. Dependent Variable: New_BMI.
  • 22. BAD NEWS: many way too high to MORE start with BAD NEWS: not decreasing GOOD NEWS: not increasing, and some going down MDSi results to March 2010, DRAFT
  • 23. Outcomes of Slick adults MDSi adults MDSi adults BRAID adults BRAID children and MDSi children and youth screened for youth selected with diabetes with diabetes (N = 2102 (N = 180) diabetes (N = screened for diabetes (N = screened for screened for diabetes (N = 629) diabetes (N parameters 91) = 32) 83) BMI BMI centiles NA NA NA NA Waists NA trend to inc p = A1c 0.05 BP syst BP diast MAP TC
  • 24.
  • 25. All Clients 9 8 8.21 7.69 7.61 7.60 7.58 7.54 7 7.16 6 Mean A1c 5 4 3 2 1 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year
  • 26. A1c by Year At first clients at 1st (N=2091 Slick at 1st visit) (N=2091 Slick clients visit!???? 14 13 Slope = -0.143 p-value=<.0001 12 11 Mean A1c 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 year
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29. Total Cholesterol by Year (N=1704 Slick clients at 1st visit) 11 (N = 1704) Mean Cholesterol 10 Slope = -0.158 9 p-value <.0001 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 year
  • 30. 100 90 80 percentage 70 60 Diet Alone 50 Oral Insulin 40 Insulin+Oral 30 20 10 0 <7 7-9 9-12 >=12
  • 31. Summary  Seeing improvements:  A1c  Weight/ waists  Total cholesterol  Blood pressure  LIMITATIONS  No control group
  • 32.
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  • 34.