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What will the Global Services landscape look like in 2031,what
will it mean for Ballyhoura and where are the opportunities for
investors, businesses, farmers, individuals and communities
across the Ballyhoura Development area?




                        Seamus Boland
                      CEO Irish Rural link
                      www.irishrurallink.ie



    Paper prepared for the Ballyhoura Conference titled:
            The Future of Rural Areas to 2031.




                          October 2010
Table of Contents

1.1 Introduction:                               3

1.1 Paradigm shift.                             3

2.0 “We are where we are”                       3

2.1 Ballyhoura.                                 4

2.2 Looking ahead                               4

2.3 Food production                             5

3.0 Services                                    5

3.1 Service delivery challenges                 6

4.0 Community Planning                          8

4.1 Community plan components                   8

4.2 Community Assets                            9

4.3 Planning Methodology                        10

5.0 The Scenarios                               10

5.1 Scenario Headings                           11

6.0 Futures Ireland Findings 2010               13

7.0 Conclusion and Reflections                  15

Bibliography                                    16




                                                     2
1.1 Introduction:
In attempting to answer the question posed by the organisers of the conference, this paper
will outline some of the trends in terms of determining possible opportunities and dangers
facing our communities at a time when we as a nation experiencing are experiencing the
most daunting of challenges to our economic, social and cultural systems.
The paper will draw from information gathered by the Futures Ireland Report published
in May 2010, the 20/20 report published by the Department of Agriculture and Food, the
work done by Carnegie Rural Development Commission., and from my own distillation
of information gathered through my work as CEO of Irish Rural link. I will also draw
from some of the excellent papers available on the Teagasc website from contributors
such as Dr. Áine Macken-Walsh, Kevin Heanue and others.
In answering the question the first place to begin is the present followed by a
combination of scenarios which will vary between where we want to be, where we might
wish to be and if we are not careful where we could end up. For some experts we may
well be on the way to the latter destination.
In other words if we have got it wrong in terms of our policy on NAMA, the banking
system and the decision to borrow astronomical sums in order to correct our economy ,
then anything Ballyhoura does may well be meaningless. However; I will not get into
this debate other than to flag its existence and recognize that it is and will remain for
some time the elephant in the room.

1.2 Paradigm shift.
 Looking at the extensive reports on rural development written by the OECD, it is worth
noting one of their conclusions in terms of future planning.
“Traditional policies to subsidise farming have not been able to harness the potential of
these economic engines. Promoting rural development, poses numerous policy and
governance challenges because it requires co-ordination across sectors, across levels of
government, and between public and private actors. Several countries are therefore
considering a paradigm shift in their approaches to accommodate such important
challenges. The most defining characteristics of this shift are a focus on places rather than
sectors and an emphasis on investments rather than subsidies.”

It could be argued that their emphasis on place is backed up by the LEADER experience
in Ireland. The example of Ballyhoura underlining the connectedness of the 13 towns in
the region with the various hinterlands illustrates the likely direction of the paradigm shift
and would be more in line with real integrated planning, which would attempt to create a
resilient region with the aim of long term sustainability as it’s core aim.

2.0 “We are where we are”

In the work done in the last few years by the Carnegie Rural Development commission,
great store has been set on the principle sustainable, resilient rural communities.
The additional word of resilience in that phrase is relatively new, although in Ireland
rural communities were historically to the fore front of putting in practice new and
innovative programmes ranging from rural electrification to group water schemes and of
course the use of the co-operative ideal to promote local business based on agriculture


                                                                                            3
and food and the raising of sources of finances through the establishment of the Credit
Union.
The term, Think Global and act Local is recognition of the fact that we are shaped by the
reality of Global markets, global finances, global weather and behaviors of people in
different countries. In Patrick Kavanagh’s poem Man After The Harrow we read,
“Now leave the check-reins slack,
the seed is flying far today-
The seed like stars against the black
Eternity of April clay”
In combining the local Monaghan clay with the stars in our universe Kavanagh reminded
us of our connectedness to the global world and yet we still have to worry about
doing the basics for our selves.

2.1 Ballyhoura.
In Ballyhoura is an area of 1,879 sq. km, 89 Electoral divisions of which 41 significantly
are designated under CLAR and a population of 78,191. Its nearness to Limerick and its
strong agricultural economy clearly indicates some fundamental advantages for
Ballyhoura. However; the reality that almost half of the area qualified for CLAR
designation suggests that communities are may well be vulnerable and at risk in terms of
poverty, social exclusion and long term sustainability. The presence of 13 towns, which
act as hubs to service the surrounding hinterlands means that their well being is crucial to
the Ballyhoura region and must be looked closely in any examination of the area and its
future. It is clear that the thirteen towns depend and react to the wider rural hinterland. Its
main asset is its farming land and the skills of those who farm it. Under the Common
Agricultural Policy, those skills have been shaped to match a combination of an overall
cheap food policy driven by the European Union and the technical requirement to
produce as much food as possible. It could be argued that the need to produce high
volumes to suit EU policy conflicted with the average small holding, which could never
compete with the high volume cheap food policy.
The presence of the Ballyhoura Development Company along with all its other Leader
colleagues meant that it was and is possible to develop local businesses based on
precisely the small holding and encourage the production of added value products,
including food, as a means of strengthening sustainability. Its track record of
development that cuts across the economic as well as the social and cultural cannot be
underestimated. Indeed had it not been there, this conference if it existed would more
likely be considering the question of whether re-population of the area was possible.
It is worth noting that a logical follow-on to a cheap high volume food policy presents the
scenario of corporate farming as the way forward, with associated consequences of a
declining rural population as happened in rural areas in France under what became
known as a “Desertification Policy” The trend of declining numbers of farmers in Ireland
is similar to that in many other countries. However here we have managed to hold onto a
higher number of par-time farmers than other countries, mainly due to the building boom
enjoyed over the last decade or so.

2.2 Looking ahead




                                                                                             4
In determining the possible needs of the area while looking ahead to 2031 it is necessary
to look at current trends, in particular some of the predicted outcomes of our current
recession. It is also necessary to look at where we are when it comes to establishing a
meaningful rural debate that is substantive and has real potential to affect the lives of all
rural families. Depending on one’s perspective the debate which resulted in adoption of
noble principles of rural development as published by the EU in the Cork declaration on
rural development and followed on by Ireland’s excellent White Paper as published in
1999 was surely richer than the one held earlier this year on whether or not we should
preserve one stag hunting or not. In a year that will determine the extent of European
funding for rural areas up to 2020, it seems strange that our main pre occupation on rural
matters was absorbed by the unspeakable chasing after the uneatable.
The reality for Ballyhoura and other significant regions will be reflected in assessing the
type and amount of supports necessary to ensure that people can live and work in their
own area.
There is another reality which will also determine the rural future of Ballyhoura and that
is the change in the political demographic in Ireland. According to Skehan of urban
planning, Ireland’s rural and urban population was exactly the same in 1996 and has been
changing in favour of a growing urban population since then. He argues that in the next
15 years, Dublin will have in excess of an extra 2.5 million people and that instead of
having a minister for the Gaeltacht we would be better served by a full minister for the
Dublin region. Such a change would significantly weaken the political influence that the
rural population has enjoyed in terms of determining rural policy at national and
international level.

2.3 Food production
In economic terms the value of our food production currently stands at €20bn of our GNP
and €8bn of total exports. The beauty of this figure is that all of the value is retained by
us as a nation and better still benefits families who live in their own local area. The
contrast often made is that while Multi-national firms create huge volumes of
employment, a significant per cent of their export earnings are re-patriated abroad.
Current figures demonstrate that this amount is almost €10 billion euro, despite the huge
cost to the taxpayer in establishing the jobs in the first place. In this context the work of
Ballyhoura development in leading out initiatives that promote a range of food products
in the region is to be lauded and encouraged; because this may well be the future.
According to UN forecasts, the world’s population will grow by over 2 billion by
2050. Since Ireland exports over 90% of it agricultural produce it becomes clear that
there will be huge potential in this area, provided the industry stays competitive and
takes advantage of its natural climate and production processes.

3.0 Services

In terms of the definition of services, it is useful to understand that services are always a
by product of whatever the mainstream activity is. For example a well run dairy herd
could on a rough calculation require the services of at least twenty different companies in
any one week. Similarly the activity generated by a local business park would also add to
the jobs quota in the immediate area. We also know that as a nation we have an


                                                                                            5
increasing older population. They will require a range of services, which will challenge
the local community and the various agencies and companies who will be asked to
provide them.
In research, which informed the Irish Rural Link Strategic Plan the question of how
limited are the services in rural areas actually is, is raised. Members identified the type of
services they required, which includes:
    • Transport
    • Access to a range of Health services.
    • Access to training and to further education
    • Accesses to local services i.e. post office, local banking, fire stations.
    • The provision of water at reasonable cost (rural collection of water rates has been
        implemented for some time.
    • The collection of waste; (It is expensive and often beyond families on social
        welfare. Hence the anecdotal evidence of domestic waste burning in rural areas.
    • Child care, including after school and homework activity
    • Youth provision.
    • Rural security; with particular reference to isolated rural households. This
        includes the type of rural policing, or voluntary structures such as community
        alert.
    • Financial services; including the range of advice needed from ordinary
        households to small businesses.
    • Environmental services (with reference to the changing requirements of fuel
        availability, type of housing and possible jobs that can be created.

   Any examination of these services will consistently demonstrate that many of these
   services, although extremely important to rural populations, are difficult to organise
   on a totally commercial basis. Also, the tight regulatory systems now in place which
   apply to a whole host of situations governing service delivery mean that it is
   necessary at a basic level to have minimum resources to cover insurance, health and
   safety and transparency measures. Because of this they are often organised as part of
   the community supports programme which originated in the old FAS sponsored
   social economy programme. It should be noted that many of these services are not
   possible in large centres of population, especially in areas that are classified as
   affected by high deprivation indicators.

   3.1 Service delivery challenges
   Challenges to service delivery in rural areas continue to centre on their cost,
   particularly services deemed not commercially viable. In the last ten years An Post
   has reduced the number of post offices to just under1200. On a yearly basis post
   offices close mainly because the local post master/mistress retires. An Post has
   continually argued that the cost of the services is prohibitive and they will only
   maintain a service based on transactional costs.
   Similarly, Bus Eireann continues to reduce the number of bus routes in rural Ireland
   and use the same argument to justify the cutbacks. The delivery of public services in
   rural Ireland is costly; however all public services including those in urban areas cost
   money.


                                                                                             6
The challenge therefore for local partnerships is to;
   a. Determine the service needs within their area of remit
   b. Establish the best mechanisms for meeting those needs
   c. And in times of restricted resources determine the necessary alternative means
      and ways to organise activities

   If we consider the latter to be the real issue for discussion then it is necessary to
   examine the problem from a completely different point of view. One of these views,
   articulated in the Carnegie publication 2009 A Manifesto for Rural Development,
   approaches rural development from an asset based approach. The report stresses the
   need to manage at a local level. It also calls for a greater role for networks such as
   rural stress helplines, debt counselling and support groups for older people, which
   constitute ‘social’ assets.
   It set out the three enabling factors that form the prerequisites for vibrant rural
   communities, stating how they can underpin our vision for the future.
        • Growing the capacity of local people, agencies and professionals who support
            rural communities; building strong social networks founded on high levels of
            volunteering and skilled support.
        • Enhancing community assets of all kinds
        • Effective community-led planning and stronger local governance.
   In its ideas for action section the commission recommends that; central and local
   government, landowners, the Social Investment Bank, the Lottery distributors, Third
   Sector agencies, trusts and local communities working together to deliver these
   actions. These include:

   •   A major expansion in community ownership of local assets
   •   An enhanced role for parish and community councils
   •   A Centre for Excellence supporting rural community development policy and
       practice on the ground.
   •   Encouragement and assistance for local communities to develop and manage their
       own services and to engage in community planning.

While such a view would represent a departure from the model of application for funding
based on an application which negatively describes any given area to one that says,
communities will use exiting assets of the community as a reason for getting extra
funding; it is by no means certain such applications will succeed. The fact is that even to
achieve some basic community activities it is essential that extra funding is required. In
great Brittain the availability of extra funding through various trusts and philantrophic
sources is greater than Ireland; where the predominant dependency is very much on the
state.




                                                                                          7
4.0 Community Planning

However although the availability of finance is important to the incubation of activity, it
has to be recognised that the the key requirement for development is the level of
organisational skill inherent in the community. Rural Ireland has managed to do well in
this area. We can point to the success rural electrification, water schemes, community
halls, enterprise incubation, community alert schemes. Factors which can be attributed to
such success can be attributed to three main sources.

   1. The rise of an individual leadership source e.g. Horace Plunkett of the Co-
      operative movement of Canon Hays founder of Muintir Na Tire.
   2. The arrival of Macra Na Feirme with the aim of systematicly traing young
      rural leaders in the skills of leadership
   3. The support from FAS to community groups, mainly starting in the late 80s.
   4. The provision of community Training through the LEADER programme

While the rise of individual leaders is always welcome, it does not for obvious reasons
guarantee success. However the putting in place of a continuous leadership programme is
much more likely to have lasting success. A continuous leadership programme whereby
basic skills in the organisation of meetings, managing them, keeping records and ensuring
that records necessary for compliance purposes are maintained, is essential in any long-
term development of a community. The FAS programme continued this process up to the
present day, mainly through the need to up-skill local management committees in charge
of the various schemes designed to combat unemployment.
The challenge facing local development organisations are to ensure that all local groups
have available to them the opportunity to access and participate in community skills
based training programmes. It represents the most important investment any funder or
agency involved in establishing community action as a means of area or community
development.

4.1 Community plan components
Any discussion on planning in rural areas is influenced by the performance of local
authorities in administering the planning system. Less is directed to the need for
community planning as documented in the recent Tipperary Institute work on community
planning.
The Carnegie report looks at some key components of community planning and in
particular suggests in its petal model some of the basic characteristics involved in process
of local planning.




                                                                                           8
4.2 Community Assets
The model is based on the notion that change, whether it is a result of outside or internal
influences, is a constant and can only be counteracted by the certainty that once a
community has a clear vision and knowledge of what it wants to be; then it can deal with
whatever change comes about. The vision would have to be based on the tangible assets
available to the area, which can be categorized in the following table:

Financial                Partnership based funding, Community Foundation, credit union
                        or access to banking services, post office, or shares in a
                        community shop, co-operative.
Built                   Village hall, community owned shop (‘the store is the core’) or
                        the pub (‘the pub is the hub’), broadband cables or satellite, work
                        space units, affordable housing.
Social                  Youth activities, Women’s groups, agricultural show organising
                        committee, meals on wheels, community action plan group, rural
                        women’s network, farmer discussion groups, car share club.

Human                    ‘What you know’ can benefit your community: e.g. local
                        historian, folk musician, and botanist, judging livestock or
                        produce, professional skills from the workplace deployed in a


                                                                                          9
voluntary capacity.
Educational               Local schools can encourage place-based education. This and
                          other learning opportunities develop human capital. This links
                          with the above row in terms of utilizing retired people in the
                          community.
                          Carnegie UK Trust R
Natural                   These assets are particularly significant in a rural context. Water
                          catchments, forests, minerals, fish, wind, biomass, wildlife and
                          farm stock. Landscape types such as arable farmland; grassland;
                          coastal areas; countryside around towns; field boundaries;
                          lowland heath; meadows and pastures; orchards, uplands,
                          waterside land.

Cultural                  Festivals, fetes, shows, livestock sales – events to celebrate
                          significant local events, stories, traditions that may be specifically
                          associated with the area. Placed based learning.
Political                 Political Parish community structures, area development group,
                          Local Strategic Partnership.
As amended from information published in the Carnegie Manifesto for local communities.

This approach allows rural communities to:
   • Disentangle their needs provision from the capacity of the state and its agencies to
       supply them.
   • It challenges the state to prioritise the distribution of scarce resources to areas that
       will utilise them in the most efficient manner.
   • It challenges both the State and it agencies and the community to systemically
       manage all development starting with a proper comprehensive plan.

4.3 Planning Methodology
Mistakes are often made when choosing a planning methodology. The common way
likely to be used is one that is quick, least expensive and is light in the direct involvement
of the community itself. While plenty of work has been done in this area, the most recent
work is that undertaken by Tipperary Institute.
http://rural.carnegieuktrust.org.uk/rarp/community_planning/tipperary_institute
Titled Integrated Area Planning the report detailed the requirements tested in a specific
area in West Offaly in conjunction with Offaly County Council. By involving the
community in a real consultative process the model lives up to the aim of seeking to
challenge people to examine the validity of what they may have and identify ways and
means of meeting needs that are essential to the community. The strength of the model is
its flexibility in terms of adaptation to different types of areas.

5.0 The Scenarios

The Futures Ireland report attempted to plan ahead based on a range of scenarios. The
strength of this approach is that it attempts to plot outcomes based on current evidence.



                                                                                             10
The weakness is that current evidence has a habit of being overtaken by unexpected
happenings, which completely change the scenarios given.
So in outlining the scenarios the following table will demonstrate some pathways, and
may generate, hopefully, many more suggestions. However as an exercise it is possible to
add or rewrite them depending on the latest news around the world

5.1 Scenario
Headings                     1                       2               3                4
Global         World economic        Is short term, but   As a nation     At local level
               down-turn is          would still          we become       survival will
               prolonged, with       curtail available    dependent       depend on the
               consequences of       development          on: the IMF     strength of
               long-term             resources            or the EU or    existing
               reductions of                              the World       community,
               available public                           Bank            local finance
               resources                                                  and locally
                                                                          based
                                                                          production
Energy         Peak oil happens     We are prepared       Are not         At local level
               by 2020              with alternative      prepared and    Ballyhoura may
                                    systems i.e.          are at the      need to examine
                                    imported nuclear      mercy of the    possible
                                    power with a          then            opportunities.
                                    combination of        prevailing
                                    wind and bio          conditions
                                    fuel.
Environment    Carbon emissions     Countries still       Challenges to   At Local level,
               still a world        too slow to           a forced        the ability of
               problem. Added to tackle problem           increase in     regions to use
               that is shortages in and those who         the cost of     the energy crisis
               water. Then there    have are not          living.         as an
               is Global            being fair in                         opportunity.
               temperature rise.    distributing the
                                    burden.
Economic       Food security will Linked to the           Ireland will    Local regions
drivers.       still be an issue.   environment,          have chosen     will have
               Global economy       rural areas may       to              developed a
               dependent on         well be strictly      concentrate     strong food
               advances in smart    zoned as to           on a            industry well
               technology and bio usage for               significant     branded and
               diverse ways of      economic              niche food      with it allied
               producing food.      activity.             market, with    services. To do
                                                          the             so it will need
                                                          development     the best
                                                          of strong       technology in
                                                          local           terms of


                                                                                        11
markets.        communications
                                                              Or have         and technical no
                                                              chosen to       how.
                                                              encourage       Or is part of a
                                                              the             general pattern
                                                              development     of rural decline.
                                                              of a
                                                              corporate
                                                              farm
                                                              structure.
Social            A growing older         A question on       Will require    The local
services          population              whether the state   help from the   area/region’s
                                          will be able to     community       ability to plan
                                          support them,       because         for taking on
                                          particularly if     families are    board a
                                          pension funds       smaller and     comprehensive
                                          are below par       more            needs plan
                                                              scattered
Amended from the futures Ireland report 2010

The above outline of scenarios, clearly show that we can only root any thoughts on future
thinking, in the present tense.
All are affected by the means and manner in which we deal with the current recession and
the extent of our success in coming out the other side. The scale of our problems are such
that many leading economists are predicting that it could be up to twenty years before we
will have a more normal economy. As I write all political parties are now resigned to a
series three to four extremely tough budgets, whereby public expenditure in all areas is
reduced by a total of up to €20 billion in that period.
The consequences are that investment into the development of any new services will not
happen and existing services could reduce by a third or more. In rural areas, where
services were always behind their urban counterpart, the pressure to curtail what is there
at present will be huge. The dilemma faced by regional leaders is quite simply between a
beliefs, that Government will continue to fund rural services or they may have to be
provided by independent entities such as charitable trusts or philanthropic foundations.
The latter choice will challenge communities in a way that has not happened since the
foundation of the state.
Until the current recession arrived the most prevailing worry for future generations was
the advent of climate warming, peak oil, carbon emission and other environmental fears.
Since the down turn, carbon emissions have significantly fallen and fears of peak oil,
while still very real have been relegated to the back pages. Unfortunately for rural areas
the affect of peak oil cannot be dismissed and based on current knowledge will add to the
challenge of rural communities’ survival as we know it.
Already we have irrefutable evidence published in the Vincentian Cost of living in rural
Ireland report 2010, that families living in rural Ireland experience a higher cost of living
than their urban counterpart. The average figure outlined is €100 based on the basic
necessities. The main cause was the cost of food and transport.



                                                                                            12
The recent article sin the Irish Times authored by Conor Skehan argues that the current
National Spatial Strategy must be abandoned and re ordered to comply with the trend of a
growing Dublin and Eastern Region with a lack of growth in the rest of Ireland. While it
can be equally argued that such a prediction comes true only because it is allowed by
government policy on regional development, it does pose some real challenges to areas
like Ballyhoura in the event that international funders begin to dictate the type of
investment that is permitted.
While that can be construed as a gloomy outlook, it must be understood when thinking of
potential futures. However the findings of the Future’s Ireland report give plenty of scope
for constructing scenarios that can provide us with a starting point.

6.0 Futures Ireland Findings 2010

Finding 1
                    New forms of cross-fertilisation between the economy, society and
                    public governance are increasingly evident, enhancing the ability to
                    learn and innovate;

Finding 2
                    Innovation and learning are systematic, almost always combining
                    initiative, disciplined review and a willingness to confront challenges
                    at three levels—institutional, inter-personal and personal;


Finding 3           Systematic review provides the basis for both innovation and
                    accountability, which is particularly relevant in a period when we
                    seek more stability and accountability and yet face radical change;


Finding 4           The kind of innovation and learning we have found cannot flourish,
                    and cannot yield their full harvest, without profound change to our
                    organisational systems, particularly our systems of control and
                    accountability


In understanding Finding 1 it is useful to look at the existing programmes initiated by
Ballyhoura. These include the Local Development Social Inclusion Programme (LDSIP),
Advocacy (Disability) Programme, Rural Social Scheme, Skillnets, Millennium Fund
Partnership, Harnessing Rural Capital Local Training Initiatives and the many other small
business and cultural related schemes. The common denominator of these programmes is
that they are designed to answer particular sets of needs in the region that are delivered in
terms of services.
All of this activity is in fact contributing to a cross-fertilisation between economy and the
wider society. However the weakness in this is the fact that there is a high dependency on
public monies to in order to ensure they continue. In LEADER terms this is seriously
augmented by support from the EU rural development programme, which is worth €425


                                                                                          13
million out of a total €7 billion package over the current seven year period ending in
2013. The proposal to cut the overall programme from 40% down to 30% will almost
certainly impact negatively on Ireland.
However it is by no means certain that the rural development programme which seeks to
deliver in multi layer way rural initiatives will fall out of favour in terms of EU support.
However in attempting to protect the agricultural dimension Ireland could be forced to
abandon the rural development element.
The danger of this happening would seriously undermine the multi-level activities
undertaken by the Ballyhoura like development companies around the country.
The finding also touches on matters of governance and in particular local governance.
It states
“The kind of innovation and learning we have found cannot flourish, and cannot
yield their full harvest, without profound change to our organisational systems,
particularly our systems of control and accountability.”

In understanding Finding 2, it is important to be clear on the importance of training,
education and skill adaptation. The link between exploiting all assets in the region with
national policy declarations e.g. The Smart Economy or the 2020 report on agriculture
and food will need to be made. The challenge to combine smart technology with that of
meeting the food needs of consumers is one that will require the establishment of unique
partnerships between all training agencies. The role of Ballyhoura and other regional type
partnerships will be central to leading out this initiative.

In finding 3 Futures Ireland are clearly signposting the reality of complete change. The
systematic review that will happen as a result of the current recession affords policy
makers and planners to devise complete different systems related to all aspects of living.
From a rural perspective this will challenge to devise a series of visions and aims that are
realistic and sustainable. In doing so, it will be necessary to be aware of counter
arguments to balanced regional development as proposed by economists and planners.

Finding 4 is a challenge to the whole notion of governance in terms of accountability and
general organisational systems. It may well be that the unwritten piece is a fundamental
review of local government. Current changes in the County VEC structures suggest that
the same could be considered in terms of the local authorities. The argument that regional
structures along the lines of the national spatial strategy would have delivered a lot more
must be tempered by the record of regional health boards, which was abandoned in recent
years. From a rural perspective it is clear that county partnerships will need to co-operate
with their colleagues and other county and regional structures so that the wider regional
dimension is recognised.




                                                                                          14
7.0 Conclusions and Reflections

This paper has set out the trends and potential scenarios that must be examined in
any planning for the future. It has examined current trends and outlined the
possible scenarios that should be considered in terms of future planning. The
emphasis on the need for community planning and its support through the constant
availability of community skills training has been highlighted. It outlines some of the
challenges faced by the delivery of rural services, including some of the
philosophical arguments which seek to define services only in terms of cost of
provision. Rural regions such as Ballyhoura will be required to answer these
challenges and from now on will have to seek out alternative models of service
delivery. Therefore the existence of the Ballyhoura development company and its
excellent record in promoting the region will be paramount in achieving the delivery
in sustainable terms of services to people living in rural areas.

Reflections

   •   It is clear that any attempt to look at the type of rural services that will need to be
       catered for by 2030 in the Ballyhoura region will be influenced by the current
       recession. All economists agree that the effects of decision making buy
       government will still be felt in 2030.
   •   Public debate will continue to measure the delivery of all services in monetary
       terms. While needs, particularly the needs of people who vulnerable because of
       health and caring issues will always have priority, it is likely that systems of
       delivery will be devised on the basis of cost.
   •   Services that are not commercially viable will require the assistance of the state,
       through its various agencies and also will depend on the capacity of voluntary
       organisations.
   •   The innate advantages of Ballyhoura in terms of its capacity to develop its
       agriculture and food sector will be essential in it success as a region. Its nearness
       to Limerick should positively influence the availability of funding and investment
       because it would be seen as close to a large population area
   •   Community planning coupled with a continuous programme of community skills
       training will be essential to the long term development of the region.
   •   The future re-organisation of local and regional administrative entities will have a
       large bearing on investment in the region
   •   The position of Ballyhoura as a potential catalyst that will initiate strategic
       partnerships is very strong and should be recognised by national policy-makers
       based on its current and past record in this area.
   •   The opportunities to develop non agricultural and food activities will be broadly
       complimented by the performance of food and agriculture.
   •   A concerted plan, supported by the entire training and education sector will be
       necessary so that all people who require up-skilling or re-training will be able to
       do so.
   •   Environmental themes will need to permeate all initiatives so that at least in this
       area, the region will be competitive.


                                                                                           15
Bibliography

What will the Global Services landscape look like in 2031,what will it mean for Ballyhoura
and where are the opportunities for investors, businesses, farmers, individuals and
communities across the Ballyhoura Development area?

Paper prepared for the Ballyhoura Conference titled: The Future of Rural Areas 2031.
Prepared by Seamus Boland CEO Irish Rural Link www.irishrurallink


Teagasc Rural development research centre
http://www.agresearch.teagasc.ie/rerc/publications.asp Dr. Áine Macken-Walsh, Kevin Heanue
and others

Futures Ireland Report. Ireland At Another Turning Point - Reviving Development,
Reforming Institutions and Liberating Capabilities.
http://www.futuresireland.ie/site/docs/futuresireland_finalreport0909.pdf

2020 Food Harvest report
http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/agri-foodindustry/agri-
foodindustrypublications/2020Foodharvest190710.pdf

Manifesto for rural development. Integrated Area Planning (IAP) - Tipperary Institute
http://rural.carnegieuktrust.org.uk/

The New Rural Paradigm: Policies and Governance
http://www.oecd.org/document/7/0,3343,en_2649_34413_37015431_1_1_1_1,00.html



Cork Declaration 1996 http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/rur/leader2/dossier_p/en/dossier/cork.pdf
Urban Forum http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/rur/leader2/dossier_p/en/dossier/cork.pdf




                                                                                              16

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Seamus Boland Irish Rural Link

  • 1. What will the Global Services landscape look like in 2031,what will it mean for Ballyhoura and where are the opportunities for investors, businesses, farmers, individuals and communities across the Ballyhoura Development area? Seamus Boland CEO Irish Rural link www.irishrurallink.ie Paper prepared for the Ballyhoura Conference titled: The Future of Rural Areas to 2031. October 2010
  • 2. Table of Contents 1.1 Introduction: 3 1.1 Paradigm shift. 3 2.0 “We are where we are” 3 2.1 Ballyhoura. 4 2.2 Looking ahead 4 2.3 Food production 5 3.0 Services 5 3.1 Service delivery challenges 6 4.0 Community Planning 8 4.1 Community plan components 8 4.2 Community Assets 9 4.3 Planning Methodology 10 5.0 The Scenarios 10 5.1 Scenario Headings 11 6.0 Futures Ireland Findings 2010 13 7.0 Conclusion and Reflections 15 Bibliography 16 2
  • 3. 1.1 Introduction: In attempting to answer the question posed by the organisers of the conference, this paper will outline some of the trends in terms of determining possible opportunities and dangers facing our communities at a time when we as a nation experiencing are experiencing the most daunting of challenges to our economic, social and cultural systems. The paper will draw from information gathered by the Futures Ireland Report published in May 2010, the 20/20 report published by the Department of Agriculture and Food, the work done by Carnegie Rural Development Commission., and from my own distillation of information gathered through my work as CEO of Irish Rural link. I will also draw from some of the excellent papers available on the Teagasc website from contributors such as Dr. Áine Macken-Walsh, Kevin Heanue and others. In answering the question the first place to begin is the present followed by a combination of scenarios which will vary between where we want to be, where we might wish to be and if we are not careful where we could end up. For some experts we may well be on the way to the latter destination. In other words if we have got it wrong in terms of our policy on NAMA, the banking system and the decision to borrow astronomical sums in order to correct our economy , then anything Ballyhoura does may well be meaningless. However; I will not get into this debate other than to flag its existence and recognize that it is and will remain for some time the elephant in the room. 1.2 Paradigm shift. Looking at the extensive reports on rural development written by the OECD, it is worth noting one of their conclusions in terms of future planning. “Traditional policies to subsidise farming have not been able to harness the potential of these economic engines. Promoting rural development, poses numerous policy and governance challenges because it requires co-ordination across sectors, across levels of government, and between public and private actors. Several countries are therefore considering a paradigm shift in their approaches to accommodate such important challenges. The most defining characteristics of this shift are a focus on places rather than sectors and an emphasis on investments rather than subsidies.” It could be argued that their emphasis on place is backed up by the LEADER experience in Ireland. The example of Ballyhoura underlining the connectedness of the 13 towns in the region with the various hinterlands illustrates the likely direction of the paradigm shift and would be more in line with real integrated planning, which would attempt to create a resilient region with the aim of long term sustainability as it’s core aim. 2.0 “We are where we are” In the work done in the last few years by the Carnegie Rural Development commission, great store has been set on the principle sustainable, resilient rural communities. The additional word of resilience in that phrase is relatively new, although in Ireland rural communities were historically to the fore front of putting in practice new and innovative programmes ranging from rural electrification to group water schemes and of course the use of the co-operative ideal to promote local business based on agriculture 3
  • 4. and food and the raising of sources of finances through the establishment of the Credit Union. The term, Think Global and act Local is recognition of the fact that we are shaped by the reality of Global markets, global finances, global weather and behaviors of people in different countries. In Patrick Kavanagh’s poem Man After The Harrow we read, “Now leave the check-reins slack, the seed is flying far today- The seed like stars against the black Eternity of April clay” In combining the local Monaghan clay with the stars in our universe Kavanagh reminded us of our connectedness to the global world and yet we still have to worry about doing the basics for our selves. 2.1 Ballyhoura. In Ballyhoura is an area of 1,879 sq. km, 89 Electoral divisions of which 41 significantly are designated under CLAR and a population of 78,191. Its nearness to Limerick and its strong agricultural economy clearly indicates some fundamental advantages for Ballyhoura. However; the reality that almost half of the area qualified for CLAR designation suggests that communities are may well be vulnerable and at risk in terms of poverty, social exclusion and long term sustainability. The presence of 13 towns, which act as hubs to service the surrounding hinterlands means that their well being is crucial to the Ballyhoura region and must be looked closely in any examination of the area and its future. It is clear that the thirteen towns depend and react to the wider rural hinterland. Its main asset is its farming land and the skills of those who farm it. Under the Common Agricultural Policy, those skills have been shaped to match a combination of an overall cheap food policy driven by the European Union and the technical requirement to produce as much food as possible. It could be argued that the need to produce high volumes to suit EU policy conflicted with the average small holding, which could never compete with the high volume cheap food policy. The presence of the Ballyhoura Development Company along with all its other Leader colleagues meant that it was and is possible to develop local businesses based on precisely the small holding and encourage the production of added value products, including food, as a means of strengthening sustainability. Its track record of development that cuts across the economic as well as the social and cultural cannot be underestimated. Indeed had it not been there, this conference if it existed would more likely be considering the question of whether re-population of the area was possible. It is worth noting that a logical follow-on to a cheap high volume food policy presents the scenario of corporate farming as the way forward, with associated consequences of a declining rural population as happened in rural areas in France under what became known as a “Desertification Policy” The trend of declining numbers of farmers in Ireland is similar to that in many other countries. However here we have managed to hold onto a higher number of par-time farmers than other countries, mainly due to the building boom enjoyed over the last decade or so. 2.2 Looking ahead 4
  • 5. In determining the possible needs of the area while looking ahead to 2031 it is necessary to look at current trends, in particular some of the predicted outcomes of our current recession. It is also necessary to look at where we are when it comes to establishing a meaningful rural debate that is substantive and has real potential to affect the lives of all rural families. Depending on one’s perspective the debate which resulted in adoption of noble principles of rural development as published by the EU in the Cork declaration on rural development and followed on by Ireland’s excellent White Paper as published in 1999 was surely richer than the one held earlier this year on whether or not we should preserve one stag hunting or not. In a year that will determine the extent of European funding for rural areas up to 2020, it seems strange that our main pre occupation on rural matters was absorbed by the unspeakable chasing after the uneatable. The reality for Ballyhoura and other significant regions will be reflected in assessing the type and amount of supports necessary to ensure that people can live and work in their own area. There is another reality which will also determine the rural future of Ballyhoura and that is the change in the political demographic in Ireland. According to Skehan of urban planning, Ireland’s rural and urban population was exactly the same in 1996 and has been changing in favour of a growing urban population since then. He argues that in the next 15 years, Dublin will have in excess of an extra 2.5 million people and that instead of having a minister for the Gaeltacht we would be better served by a full minister for the Dublin region. Such a change would significantly weaken the political influence that the rural population has enjoyed in terms of determining rural policy at national and international level. 2.3 Food production In economic terms the value of our food production currently stands at €20bn of our GNP and €8bn of total exports. The beauty of this figure is that all of the value is retained by us as a nation and better still benefits families who live in their own local area. The contrast often made is that while Multi-national firms create huge volumes of employment, a significant per cent of their export earnings are re-patriated abroad. Current figures demonstrate that this amount is almost €10 billion euro, despite the huge cost to the taxpayer in establishing the jobs in the first place. In this context the work of Ballyhoura development in leading out initiatives that promote a range of food products in the region is to be lauded and encouraged; because this may well be the future. According to UN forecasts, the world’s population will grow by over 2 billion by 2050. Since Ireland exports over 90% of it agricultural produce it becomes clear that there will be huge potential in this area, provided the industry stays competitive and takes advantage of its natural climate and production processes. 3.0 Services In terms of the definition of services, it is useful to understand that services are always a by product of whatever the mainstream activity is. For example a well run dairy herd could on a rough calculation require the services of at least twenty different companies in any one week. Similarly the activity generated by a local business park would also add to the jobs quota in the immediate area. We also know that as a nation we have an 5
  • 6. increasing older population. They will require a range of services, which will challenge the local community and the various agencies and companies who will be asked to provide them. In research, which informed the Irish Rural Link Strategic Plan the question of how limited are the services in rural areas actually is, is raised. Members identified the type of services they required, which includes: • Transport • Access to a range of Health services. • Access to training and to further education • Accesses to local services i.e. post office, local banking, fire stations. • The provision of water at reasonable cost (rural collection of water rates has been implemented for some time. • The collection of waste; (It is expensive and often beyond families on social welfare. Hence the anecdotal evidence of domestic waste burning in rural areas. • Child care, including after school and homework activity • Youth provision. • Rural security; with particular reference to isolated rural households. This includes the type of rural policing, or voluntary structures such as community alert. • Financial services; including the range of advice needed from ordinary households to small businesses. • Environmental services (with reference to the changing requirements of fuel availability, type of housing and possible jobs that can be created. Any examination of these services will consistently demonstrate that many of these services, although extremely important to rural populations, are difficult to organise on a totally commercial basis. Also, the tight regulatory systems now in place which apply to a whole host of situations governing service delivery mean that it is necessary at a basic level to have minimum resources to cover insurance, health and safety and transparency measures. Because of this they are often organised as part of the community supports programme which originated in the old FAS sponsored social economy programme. It should be noted that many of these services are not possible in large centres of population, especially in areas that are classified as affected by high deprivation indicators. 3.1 Service delivery challenges Challenges to service delivery in rural areas continue to centre on their cost, particularly services deemed not commercially viable. In the last ten years An Post has reduced the number of post offices to just under1200. On a yearly basis post offices close mainly because the local post master/mistress retires. An Post has continually argued that the cost of the services is prohibitive and they will only maintain a service based on transactional costs. Similarly, Bus Eireann continues to reduce the number of bus routes in rural Ireland and use the same argument to justify the cutbacks. The delivery of public services in rural Ireland is costly; however all public services including those in urban areas cost money. 6
  • 7. The challenge therefore for local partnerships is to; a. Determine the service needs within their area of remit b. Establish the best mechanisms for meeting those needs c. And in times of restricted resources determine the necessary alternative means and ways to organise activities If we consider the latter to be the real issue for discussion then it is necessary to examine the problem from a completely different point of view. One of these views, articulated in the Carnegie publication 2009 A Manifesto for Rural Development, approaches rural development from an asset based approach. The report stresses the need to manage at a local level. It also calls for a greater role for networks such as rural stress helplines, debt counselling and support groups for older people, which constitute ‘social’ assets. It set out the three enabling factors that form the prerequisites for vibrant rural communities, stating how they can underpin our vision for the future. • Growing the capacity of local people, agencies and professionals who support rural communities; building strong social networks founded on high levels of volunteering and skilled support. • Enhancing community assets of all kinds • Effective community-led planning and stronger local governance. In its ideas for action section the commission recommends that; central and local government, landowners, the Social Investment Bank, the Lottery distributors, Third Sector agencies, trusts and local communities working together to deliver these actions. These include: • A major expansion in community ownership of local assets • An enhanced role for parish and community councils • A Centre for Excellence supporting rural community development policy and practice on the ground. • Encouragement and assistance for local communities to develop and manage their own services and to engage in community planning. While such a view would represent a departure from the model of application for funding based on an application which negatively describes any given area to one that says, communities will use exiting assets of the community as a reason for getting extra funding; it is by no means certain such applications will succeed. The fact is that even to achieve some basic community activities it is essential that extra funding is required. In great Brittain the availability of extra funding through various trusts and philantrophic sources is greater than Ireland; where the predominant dependency is very much on the state. 7
  • 8. 4.0 Community Planning However although the availability of finance is important to the incubation of activity, it has to be recognised that the the key requirement for development is the level of organisational skill inherent in the community. Rural Ireland has managed to do well in this area. We can point to the success rural electrification, water schemes, community halls, enterprise incubation, community alert schemes. Factors which can be attributed to such success can be attributed to three main sources. 1. The rise of an individual leadership source e.g. Horace Plunkett of the Co- operative movement of Canon Hays founder of Muintir Na Tire. 2. The arrival of Macra Na Feirme with the aim of systematicly traing young rural leaders in the skills of leadership 3. The support from FAS to community groups, mainly starting in the late 80s. 4. The provision of community Training through the LEADER programme While the rise of individual leaders is always welcome, it does not for obvious reasons guarantee success. However the putting in place of a continuous leadership programme is much more likely to have lasting success. A continuous leadership programme whereby basic skills in the organisation of meetings, managing them, keeping records and ensuring that records necessary for compliance purposes are maintained, is essential in any long- term development of a community. The FAS programme continued this process up to the present day, mainly through the need to up-skill local management committees in charge of the various schemes designed to combat unemployment. The challenge facing local development organisations are to ensure that all local groups have available to them the opportunity to access and participate in community skills based training programmes. It represents the most important investment any funder or agency involved in establishing community action as a means of area or community development. 4.1 Community plan components Any discussion on planning in rural areas is influenced by the performance of local authorities in administering the planning system. Less is directed to the need for community planning as documented in the recent Tipperary Institute work on community planning. The Carnegie report looks at some key components of community planning and in particular suggests in its petal model some of the basic characteristics involved in process of local planning. 8
  • 9. 4.2 Community Assets The model is based on the notion that change, whether it is a result of outside or internal influences, is a constant and can only be counteracted by the certainty that once a community has a clear vision and knowledge of what it wants to be; then it can deal with whatever change comes about. The vision would have to be based on the tangible assets available to the area, which can be categorized in the following table: Financial Partnership based funding, Community Foundation, credit union or access to banking services, post office, or shares in a community shop, co-operative. Built Village hall, community owned shop (‘the store is the core’) or the pub (‘the pub is the hub’), broadband cables or satellite, work space units, affordable housing. Social Youth activities, Women’s groups, agricultural show organising committee, meals on wheels, community action plan group, rural women’s network, farmer discussion groups, car share club. Human ‘What you know’ can benefit your community: e.g. local historian, folk musician, and botanist, judging livestock or produce, professional skills from the workplace deployed in a 9
  • 10. voluntary capacity. Educational Local schools can encourage place-based education. This and other learning opportunities develop human capital. This links with the above row in terms of utilizing retired people in the community. Carnegie UK Trust R Natural These assets are particularly significant in a rural context. Water catchments, forests, minerals, fish, wind, biomass, wildlife and farm stock. Landscape types such as arable farmland; grassland; coastal areas; countryside around towns; field boundaries; lowland heath; meadows and pastures; orchards, uplands, waterside land. Cultural Festivals, fetes, shows, livestock sales – events to celebrate significant local events, stories, traditions that may be specifically associated with the area. Placed based learning. Political Political Parish community structures, area development group, Local Strategic Partnership. As amended from information published in the Carnegie Manifesto for local communities. This approach allows rural communities to: • Disentangle their needs provision from the capacity of the state and its agencies to supply them. • It challenges the state to prioritise the distribution of scarce resources to areas that will utilise them in the most efficient manner. • It challenges both the State and it agencies and the community to systemically manage all development starting with a proper comprehensive plan. 4.3 Planning Methodology Mistakes are often made when choosing a planning methodology. The common way likely to be used is one that is quick, least expensive and is light in the direct involvement of the community itself. While plenty of work has been done in this area, the most recent work is that undertaken by Tipperary Institute. http://rural.carnegieuktrust.org.uk/rarp/community_planning/tipperary_institute Titled Integrated Area Planning the report detailed the requirements tested in a specific area in West Offaly in conjunction with Offaly County Council. By involving the community in a real consultative process the model lives up to the aim of seeking to challenge people to examine the validity of what they may have and identify ways and means of meeting needs that are essential to the community. The strength of the model is its flexibility in terms of adaptation to different types of areas. 5.0 The Scenarios The Futures Ireland report attempted to plan ahead based on a range of scenarios. The strength of this approach is that it attempts to plot outcomes based on current evidence. 10
  • 11. The weakness is that current evidence has a habit of being overtaken by unexpected happenings, which completely change the scenarios given. So in outlining the scenarios the following table will demonstrate some pathways, and may generate, hopefully, many more suggestions. However as an exercise it is possible to add or rewrite them depending on the latest news around the world 5.1 Scenario Headings 1 2 3 4 Global World economic Is short term, but As a nation At local level down-turn is would still we become survival will prolonged, with curtail available dependent depend on the consequences of development on: the IMF strength of long-term resources or the EU or existing reductions of the World community, available public Bank local finance resources and locally based production Energy Peak oil happens We are prepared Are not At local level by 2020 with alternative prepared and Ballyhoura may systems i.e. are at the need to examine imported nuclear mercy of the possible power with a then opportunities. combination of prevailing wind and bio conditions fuel. Environment Carbon emissions Countries still Challenges to At Local level, still a world too slow to a forced the ability of problem. Added to tackle problem increase in regions to use that is shortages in and those who the cost of the energy crisis water. Then there have are not living. as an is Global being fair in opportunity. temperature rise. distributing the burden. Economic Food security will Linked to the Ireland will Local regions drivers. still be an issue. environment, have chosen will have Global economy rural areas may to developed a dependent on well be strictly concentrate strong food advances in smart zoned as to on a industry well technology and bio usage for significant branded and diverse ways of economic niche food with it allied producing food. activity. market, with services. To do the so it will need development the best of strong technology in local terms of 11
  • 12. markets. communications Or have and technical no chosen to how. encourage Or is part of a the general pattern development of rural decline. of a corporate farm structure. Social A growing older A question on Will require The local services population whether the state help from the area/region’s will be able to community ability to plan support them, because for taking on particularly if families are board a pension funds smaller and comprehensive are below par more needs plan scattered Amended from the futures Ireland report 2010 The above outline of scenarios, clearly show that we can only root any thoughts on future thinking, in the present tense. All are affected by the means and manner in which we deal with the current recession and the extent of our success in coming out the other side. The scale of our problems are such that many leading economists are predicting that it could be up to twenty years before we will have a more normal economy. As I write all political parties are now resigned to a series three to four extremely tough budgets, whereby public expenditure in all areas is reduced by a total of up to €20 billion in that period. The consequences are that investment into the development of any new services will not happen and existing services could reduce by a third or more. In rural areas, where services were always behind their urban counterpart, the pressure to curtail what is there at present will be huge. The dilemma faced by regional leaders is quite simply between a beliefs, that Government will continue to fund rural services or they may have to be provided by independent entities such as charitable trusts or philanthropic foundations. The latter choice will challenge communities in a way that has not happened since the foundation of the state. Until the current recession arrived the most prevailing worry for future generations was the advent of climate warming, peak oil, carbon emission and other environmental fears. Since the down turn, carbon emissions have significantly fallen and fears of peak oil, while still very real have been relegated to the back pages. Unfortunately for rural areas the affect of peak oil cannot be dismissed and based on current knowledge will add to the challenge of rural communities’ survival as we know it. Already we have irrefutable evidence published in the Vincentian Cost of living in rural Ireland report 2010, that families living in rural Ireland experience a higher cost of living than their urban counterpart. The average figure outlined is €100 based on the basic necessities. The main cause was the cost of food and transport. 12
  • 13. The recent article sin the Irish Times authored by Conor Skehan argues that the current National Spatial Strategy must be abandoned and re ordered to comply with the trend of a growing Dublin and Eastern Region with a lack of growth in the rest of Ireland. While it can be equally argued that such a prediction comes true only because it is allowed by government policy on regional development, it does pose some real challenges to areas like Ballyhoura in the event that international funders begin to dictate the type of investment that is permitted. While that can be construed as a gloomy outlook, it must be understood when thinking of potential futures. However the findings of the Future’s Ireland report give plenty of scope for constructing scenarios that can provide us with a starting point. 6.0 Futures Ireland Findings 2010 Finding 1 New forms of cross-fertilisation between the economy, society and public governance are increasingly evident, enhancing the ability to learn and innovate; Finding 2 Innovation and learning are systematic, almost always combining initiative, disciplined review and a willingness to confront challenges at three levels—institutional, inter-personal and personal; Finding 3 Systematic review provides the basis for both innovation and accountability, which is particularly relevant in a period when we seek more stability and accountability and yet face radical change; Finding 4 The kind of innovation and learning we have found cannot flourish, and cannot yield their full harvest, without profound change to our organisational systems, particularly our systems of control and accountability In understanding Finding 1 it is useful to look at the existing programmes initiated by Ballyhoura. These include the Local Development Social Inclusion Programme (LDSIP), Advocacy (Disability) Programme, Rural Social Scheme, Skillnets, Millennium Fund Partnership, Harnessing Rural Capital Local Training Initiatives and the many other small business and cultural related schemes. The common denominator of these programmes is that they are designed to answer particular sets of needs in the region that are delivered in terms of services. All of this activity is in fact contributing to a cross-fertilisation between economy and the wider society. However the weakness in this is the fact that there is a high dependency on public monies to in order to ensure they continue. In LEADER terms this is seriously augmented by support from the EU rural development programme, which is worth €425 13
  • 14. million out of a total €7 billion package over the current seven year period ending in 2013. The proposal to cut the overall programme from 40% down to 30% will almost certainly impact negatively on Ireland. However it is by no means certain that the rural development programme which seeks to deliver in multi layer way rural initiatives will fall out of favour in terms of EU support. However in attempting to protect the agricultural dimension Ireland could be forced to abandon the rural development element. The danger of this happening would seriously undermine the multi-level activities undertaken by the Ballyhoura like development companies around the country. The finding also touches on matters of governance and in particular local governance. It states “The kind of innovation and learning we have found cannot flourish, and cannot yield their full harvest, without profound change to our organisational systems, particularly our systems of control and accountability.” In understanding Finding 2, it is important to be clear on the importance of training, education and skill adaptation. The link between exploiting all assets in the region with national policy declarations e.g. The Smart Economy or the 2020 report on agriculture and food will need to be made. The challenge to combine smart technology with that of meeting the food needs of consumers is one that will require the establishment of unique partnerships between all training agencies. The role of Ballyhoura and other regional type partnerships will be central to leading out this initiative. In finding 3 Futures Ireland are clearly signposting the reality of complete change. The systematic review that will happen as a result of the current recession affords policy makers and planners to devise complete different systems related to all aspects of living. From a rural perspective this will challenge to devise a series of visions and aims that are realistic and sustainable. In doing so, it will be necessary to be aware of counter arguments to balanced regional development as proposed by economists and planners. Finding 4 is a challenge to the whole notion of governance in terms of accountability and general organisational systems. It may well be that the unwritten piece is a fundamental review of local government. Current changes in the County VEC structures suggest that the same could be considered in terms of the local authorities. The argument that regional structures along the lines of the national spatial strategy would have delivered a lot more must be tempered by the record of regional health boards, which was abandoned in recent years. From a rural perspective it is clear that county partnerships will need to co-operate with their colleagues and other county and regional structures so that the wider regional dimension is recognised. 14
  • 15. 7.0 Conclusions and Reflections This paper has set out the trends and potential scenarios that must be examined in any planning for the future. It has examined current trends and outlined the possible scenarios that should be considered in terms of future planning. The emphasis on the need for community planning and its support through the constant availability of community skills training has been highlighted. It outlines some of the challenges faced by the delivery of rural services, including some of the philosophical arguments which seek to define services only in terms of cost of provision. Rural regions such as Ballyhoura will be required to answer these challenges and from now on will have to seek out alternative models of service delivery. Therefore the existence of the Ballyhoura development company and its excellent record in promoting the region will be paramount in achieving the delivery in sustainable terms of services to people living in rural areas. Reflections • It is clear that any attempt to look at the type of rural services that will need to be catered for by 2030 in the Ballyhoura region will be influenced by the current recession. All economists agree that the effects of decision making buy government will still be felt in 2030. • Public debate will continue to measure the delivery of all services in monetary terms. While needs, particularly the needs of people who vulnerable because of health and caring issues will always have priority, it is likely that systems of delivery will be devised on the basis of cost. • Services that are not commercially viable will require the assistance of the state, through its various agencies and also will depend on the capacity of voluntary organisations. • The innate advantages of Ballyhoura in terms of its capacity to develop its agriculture and food sector will be essential in it success as a region. Its nearness to Limerick should positively influence the availability of funding and investment because it would be seen as close to a large population area • Community planning coupled with a continuous programme of community skills training will be essential to the long term development of the region. • The future re-organisation of local and regional administrative entities will have a large bearing on investment in the region • The position of Ballyhoura as a potential catalyst that will initiate strategic partnerships is very strong and should be recognised by national policy-makers based on its current and past record in this area. • The opportunities to develop non agricultural and food activities will be broadly complimented by the performance of food and agriculture. • A concerted plan, supported by the entire training and education sector will be necessary so that all people who require up-skilling or re-training will be able to do so. • Environmental themes will need to permeate all initiatives so that at least in this area, the region will be competitive. 15
  • 16. Bibliography What will the Global Services landscape look like in 2031,what will it mean for Ballyhoura and where are the opportunities for investors, businesses, farmers, individuals and communities across the Ballyhoura Development area? Paper prepared for the Ballyhoura Conference titled: The Future of Rural Areas 2031. Prepared by Seamus Boland CEO Irish Rural Link www.irishrurallink Teagasc Rural development research centre http://www.agresearch.teagasc.ie/rerc/publications.asp Dr. Áine Macken-Walsh, Kevin Heanue and others Futures Ireland Report. Ireland At Another Turning Point - Reviving Development, Reforming Institutions and Liberating Capabilities. http://www.futuresireland.ie/site/docs/futuresireland_finalreport0909.pdf 2020 Food Harvest report http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/agri-foodindustry/agri- foodindustrypublications/2020Foodharvest190710.pdf Manifesto for rural development. Integrated Area Planning (IAP) - Tipperary Institute http://rural.carnegieuktrust.org.uk/ The New Rural Paradigm: Policies and Governance http://www.oecd.org/document/7/0,3343,en_2649_34413_37015431_1_1_1_1,00.html Cork Declaration 1996 http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/rur/leader2/dossier_p/en/dossier/cork.pdf Urban Forum http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/rur/leader2/dossier_p/en/dossier/cork.pdf 16