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The Political Economy of Change in Cuba “ Cuba’s Economic Reform Process under President Raul Castro: Challenges, Strategic Actions and Prospective Performance ” Archibald R. M. Ritter Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada
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I.  Context for the Reforms of 2010-11 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Source:  ONE, AEC  various issues and UN ECLAC, Preliminary Overview, various issues
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Chart 2  Cuba: Real Inflation-Adjusted Wages, 1989-2009  (Pesos, Moneda Nacional Vidal  A lejandro, Pavel,  “Politica Monetaria y Doble Moneda ”, in Omar Everleny Perez et. al., Miradas a la Economia Cubana, La Habana: Editorial Caminos, 2009
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Source: NU CEPAL, 2000 Cuadro A.86; ONE, 2010 Table 11.4
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Chart 4. Cuban Exports and Imports of Foodstuffs, 1989-2008 (excluding Tobacco and Alcoholic Beverages)  (Millions CUP) Source: NU CEPAL, 2000 Tables A.36 and A.37, and ONE, AEC, Various Years. Food Imports
Source: ONE AEC, 2004, Table 11.1 and 2IX.1, and various issues Note: Data for 1990-1997 are not available
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Source: ONE, 2009 Table 5.7
Source: ONE  2009  Table 8.12
Source: UN CEPAL, 2000 Table  A.38 and Mesa-Lago, 2000. 366  
Low Investment Levels ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Chart 9  Unemployment and Underemployment in Cuba, 1988-2010 Source :  Carmelo Mesa-Lago : Convirtiendo el Desempleo Oculto en Visible en Cuba” Espacio Laical, Havana Cuba.   And  Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). 1997, 2000.  La Economía Cubana: Reformas Estructurales y Desempeño en los Noventa  (México DF: Fondo de Cultura Económica, 1 a  y 2 a  ediciones).
Causes of Economic Problems ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Central Policy Mess-Up:  The Monetary and Exchange Rate System ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
International Economic Context: 2008-10 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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The immediate context for Cuban citizens: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ We confront unpleasant realities, but we are not closing our eyes to them. We are convinced that we must break dogmas and we affirm with firmness and confidence the implementation, already in process, of ‘ our economic model ’”.  Raul Castro “ In socialism, it is indispensable that in economic plans, the assignation of resources be matched strictly to the available resources. We cannot hope that 2 plus 2 are 5. 2 plus 2 are 4.  In fact, sometimes, in socialism, 2 plus 2 comes out to 3.”  II. Raul Castro’s Approach to Reform
[object Object],“…  Without an increase in efficiency and productivity, it is impossible to raise salaries, increase exports, substitute for imports, increase food production, and sustain definitively the enormous social expenditures of our socialist system.”   Raúl  “ In the economic policy that is proposed,  socialism is equality of rights and opportunities for the citizens, not egalitarianism ”    “Lineamientos”
Pre-2006 Complacency
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“ Contours” of Economic and Social Policy   ( 291  guidelines, goals, or recommendations) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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The Core of the New Strategy so far : ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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2. Policy Changes towards Micro-Enterprise: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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(b) Regulatory Framework : “ From 12 to 20 chairs ” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
(c) Tax Regime: Complex, Punitive, Dis-incentivating ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Evaluation of New Tax Arrangement ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Additional Positive Changes: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Can the Microenterprise and Co-op sectors generate 1.2 million new jobs by Dec. 2012? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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III. Results? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Source: ONE: Anuario Estadistico de Cuba, various issues
New Paladar, February 2011
Repairing a Bicytaxi
Other Policy Initiatives :  July 2006-October 2010   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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Is the Reform Process Sustainable? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sustainability  of the reform process ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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In summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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III. Sixth Party Congress :  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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Some of the Main Elements of the reform process ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Optimistic again ! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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Arch Ritter

  • 1. The Political Economy of Change in Cuba “ Cuba’s Economic Reform Process under President Raul Castro: Challenges, Strategic Actions and Prospective Performance ” Archibald R. M. Ritter Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada
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  • 6. Source: ONE, AEC various issues and UN ECLAC, Preliminary Overview, various issues
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  • 8. Chart 2 Cuba: Real Inflation-Adjusted Wages, 1989-2009 (Pesos, Moneda Nacional Vidal A lejandro, Pavel, “Politica Monetaria y Doble Moneda ”, in Omar Everleny Perez et. al., Miradas a la Economia Cubana, La Habana: Editorial Caminos, 2009
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  • 10. Source: NU CEPAL, 2000 Cuadro A.86; ONE, 2010 Table 11.4
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  • 12. Chart 4. Cuban Exports and Imports of Foodstuffs, 1989-2008 (excluding Tobacco and Alcoholic Beverages) (Millions CUP) Source: NU CEPAL, 2000 Tables A.36 and A.37, and ONE, AEC, Various Years. Food Imports
  • 13. Source: ONE AEC, 2004, Table 11.1 and 2IX.1, and various issues Note: Data for 1990-1997 are not available
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  • 15. Source: ONE, 2009 Table 5.7
  • 16. Source: ONE 2009 Table 8.12
  • 17. Source: UN CEPAL, 2000 Table A.38 and Mesa-Lago, 2000. 366  
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  • 19. Chart 9 Unemployment and Underemployment in Cuba, 1988-2010 Source : Carmelo Mesa-Lago : Convirtiendo el Desempleo Oculto en Visible en Cuba” Espacio Laical, Havana Cuba. And Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). 1997, 2000. La Economía Cubana: Reformas Estructurales y Desempeño en los Noventa (México DF: Fondo de Cultura Económica, 1 a y 2 a ediciones).
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  • 25. “ We confront unpleasant realities, but we are not closing our eyes to them. We are convinced that we must break dogmas and we affirm with firmness and confidence the implementation, already in process, of ‘ our economic model ’”. Raul Castro “ In socialism, it is indispensable that in economic plans, the assignation of resources be matched strictly to the available resources. We cannot hope that 2 plus 2 are 5. 2 plus 2 are 4. In fact, sometimes, in socialism, 2 plus 2 comes out to 3.” II. Raul Castro’s Approach to Reform
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  • 48. Source: ONE: Anuario Estadistico de Cuba, various issues
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