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2010 Food Shippers of America
                           Conference                                                                                Equity Research




       Some Seasonal Strengthening Has Occurred In The Freight
       Markets; However, The Road To Recovery Will Be Gradual




                                                                                                       John Larkin, CFA
                                                                                   Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated
                                                                                                              (443) 224-1315
                                                                                                         jglarkin@stifel.com

Images courtesy of KNX, SAIA, FDX and BNSF                                                              February 23, 2010

                          All relevant disclosures and certifications can be found on pages 46-47 of this report.
 Transportation & Logistics
Freight Transportation & Logistics Group                      CONFIDENTIAL                                                   1 1
2010 Food Shippers of America
                          Conference                                                   Equity Research




                                                   Outline

   I.                The Economy Is Gradually Recovering: Sustainability Is An Issue
   II.               Freight Volumes Are Reflecting The Economic Recovery
   III.              Each Freight Transportation Sector Is Driven By Unique Factors
   IV.               Short Term Predictions – “Not Out Of The Woods Yet”
   V.                Longer Term Predictions – “The Future Will Be Bright”




 Transportation & Logistics
Freight Transportation & Logistics Group          CONFIDENTIAL                                 2 2
Macroeconomic Indicators Remain
 Relatively Soft                                                                                                                                                                                       Equity Research




                                     Real Consumer Spending “Cratered” in 2008 But Hasn‟t Improved Much


                                                                                     Real Retail Sales Increased 2.4% Y/Y in December; It Appears
                                                                                                   That The Worst May Be Behind Us
                                                                                                       CPI-Adjusted Retail Sales        Y/Y% Change
                                                                               190                                                                                  8.0%

                                                                                                                                                                    6.0%

                                                                               180                                                                                  4.0%                    Decline From
                                                 Monthly Retail Sales ($ bn)




                                                                                                                                                                    2.0%                        Peak




                                                                                                                                                                             Y/Y % Change
                                                                               170                                                                                  0.0%                       -9.5%
                                                                                                                                                                    -2.0%

                                                                               160                                                                                  -4.0%

                                                                                                                                                                    -6.0%

                                                                               150                                                                                  -8.0%

                                                                                                                                                                    -10.0%

                                                                               140                                                                                  -12.0%
                                                                                 Dec-01   Dec-02   Dec-03   Dec-04    Dec-05       Dec-06   Dec-07    Dec-08   Dec-09

Chart displays seasonally adjusted data
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Company data


  Transportation & Logistics
 Freight Transportation & Logistics Group                                                                        CONFIDENTIAL                                                                                  3 3
U.S. Consumers Are Saving More to Offset
 Real Estate and Investment Portfolio Losses                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Equity Research




                                                                                                              Increased Savings = Reduced Consumption; Is This a Permanent Change in Behavior?
                                                                                                                          U.S. Personal Savings ($ in Billions)                                                                                                                                    U.S. Personal Savings Rate (%)
                                                                                                                                      1952 - 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1952 - 2009
                                      DPI Less Personal Outlays - Inflation Adj. to 1952 ($ BN)




                                                                                                  80                                                                                                                                                                     15.0%

                                                                                                  70




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Personal Savings / Disposable Inc. (%)
                                                                                                  60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         10.0%
                                                                                                  50

                                                                                                  40

                                                                                                  30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5.0%
                                                                                                  20

                                                                                                  10

                                                                                                  0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0.0%
                                                                                                       1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

                                                                                                                     Monthly U.S. Personal Savings ($ in Billions)                                                                                                                            Monthly U.S. Personal Savings Rate (%)
                                                                                                                      Figures Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates                                                                                                                             Figures Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates
                                                                                                                                Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2009                                                                                                                                                   Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2009
                                      850
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               7.0%
                                      750
   DPI Less Personal Outlays ($ BN)




                                                                                                                                                                                      Personal Savings / Disposable Inc. (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               6.0%
                                      650
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               5.0%
                                      550
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4.0%
                                      450
                                      350                                                                                                                                                                                      3.0%

                                      250                                                                                                                                                                                      2.0%

                                      150                                                                                                                                                                                      1.0%
                                                               50                                                                                                                                                              0.0%
                                      (50)                                                                                                                                                                                     -1.0%
                                                                                                       Aug-07




                                                                                                       Aug-08




                                                                                                       Aug-09
                                                                                                       Apr-07




                                                                                                       Apr-08




                                                                                                       Apr-09
                                                                                                       May-07




                                                                                                       May-08




                                                                                                       May-09
                                                                                                       Mar-07




                                                                                                       Mar-08
                                                                                                       Feb-07




                                                                                                       Nov-07




                                                                                                       Nov-08



                                                                                                       Mar-09




                                                                                                       Nov-09
                                                                                                        Jul-07

                                                                                                       Sep-07




                                                                                                       Feb-08




                                                                                                        Jul-08

                                                                                                       Sep-08




                                                                                                       Feb-09




                                                                                                        Jul-09

                                                                                                       Sep-09
                                                                                                       Jan-07




                                                                                                       Jun-07




                                                                                                       Dec-07
                                                                                                       Oct-07


                                                                                                       Jan-08




                                                                                                       Jun-08




                                                                                                       Dec-08




                                                                                                       Dec-09
                                                                                                       Oct-08


                                                                                                       Jan-09




                                                                                                       Jun-09



                                                                                                       Oct-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Apr-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Aug-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Apr-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Aug-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Apr-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Aug-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Feb-07


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           May-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov-07


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Feb-08


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           May-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           May-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov-08


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Feb-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jun-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct-07


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Dec-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jun-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct-08


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jun-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Dec-09
*DPI less Personal Outlays in May 2008 and Personal Saving as a Percentage of Personal Disposable Income in May 2008 are not comparable due to the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, when the Government issued rebate payments of $1.9 billion in April, $48.1
billion in May, and $27.9 billion in June and $13.7 billion in July. The stimulus package effectively reduced the level of personal taxes, which are part of the calculations for Savings in dollars and percentage savings rate.
Personal savings is disposable personal income net of personal outlays
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  Transportation & Logistics
 Freight Transportation & Logistics Group                                                                                                                                     CONFIDENTIAL                                                                                                                                                                   4 4
ISM Index Suggests Manufacturing Growth                                                                                                                                                     Equity Research




                                       ISM Index in January Suggested Growth in the Manufacturing Economy
                                       For the Sixth Consecutive Time Since July ‟09; Export Growth Had Been
                                             Masking Domestic Manufacturing Weakness For Most of „08
                                              65.0

                                              60.0

                                              55.0
                                  ISM Index




                                              50.0                                                                                                                                 Jan-10

                                              45.0                                                                                                                                  58.4

                                              40.0

                                              35.0

                                              30.0
                                                 Jan-00        Jan-01          Jan-02           Jan-03          Jan-04      Jan-05    Jan-06   Jan-07   Jan-08   Jan-09   Jan-10

ISM Index values over 50 indicate industrial growth while ISM Index values below 50 indicate industrial contraction.
Source: Institute for Supply Management


 Transportation & Logistics
Freight Transportation & Logistics Group                                                                               CONFIDENTIAL                                                                 5 5
Industrial Production Recovering Slowly                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Equity Research




                               Tonnage-Weighted Industrial Production Has Been Slightly Weaker Than Value-Weighted Industrial
                              Production Due to Steep Declines in Heavy Building/Construction Materials and Automotive Volumes
                                     and Emphasis Given to More Concentrated/Compact Products With Smaller Packaging


                                                                 U.S. Industrial Production Index                                                                                                                                       Tonnage-Weighted Industrial Production Index
                                                                                       Jan. 1999- Jan. 2010                                                                                                                                      Nov. 1998- Nov. 2009
                                                                          Industrial Production              Y/Y% Change                                                                                                                          Tonnage Weighted IP Index               Y/Y % Change
                              110.0                                                                                                                       10.0%                                               120.0                                                                                                                10.0%

                              100.0                                                                                                                       5.0%                                                100.0                                                                                                                5.0%
Industrial Production Index




                                                                                                                                                                                  Tonnage-Weighted IP Index
                               90.0
                                                                                                                                                          0.0%                                                 80.0                                                                                                                0.0%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Y/Y % Change
                                                                                                                                                                   Y/Y % Change
                               80.0
                                                                                                                                                          -5.0%                                                60.0                                                                                                                -5.0%
                               70.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                               40.0                                                                                                                -10.0%
                                                                                                                                                          -10.0%
                               60.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                               20.0                                                                                                                -15.0%
                               50.0                                                                                                                       -15.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                0.0                                                                                                                -20.0%
                               40.0                                                                                                                       -20.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov-98

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov-99

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Nov-00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov-01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov-02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nov-03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Nov-04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov-05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov-06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Nov-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Nov-09
                                      Jan-99


                                               Jan-00


                                                        Jan-01


                                                                 Jan-02


                                                                              Jan-03


                                                                                           Jan-04


                                                                                                    Jan-05


                                                                                                             Jan-06


                                                                                                                      Jan-07


                                                                                                                               Jan-08


                                                                                                                                        Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                 Jan-10




 Data in both graphs are adjusted for PPI, excluding food and energy

 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, American Trucking Associations


                   Transportation & Logistics
                  Freight Transportation & Logistics Group                                                                                            CONFIDENTIAL                                                                                                                                                                    6 6
Credit Managers Index Somewhat
 Encouraging                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Equity Research




              Recent Credit Managers Index (CMI) Data Suggests Commercial Business Transactions Have
              Expanded in Each of the Past Three Months; December ‟09 CMI Highest Since January „08

                                                                                           60
                                     Combined Manufacturing and Services CMI (SA Index)




                                                                                           55




                                                                                           50                                                                                                                                               Dec-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             52.9


                                                                                           45




                                                                                           40
                                                                                                                  4




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        9
                                                                                                         4




                                                                                                                                                                                                                               9
                                                                                              4




                                                                                                                                     5




                                                                                                                                                                                                            8


                                                                                                                                                                                                                    9
                                                                                                                                                                                                    8
                                                                                                                                                                   07
                                                                                                                            5




                                                                                                                                              6




                                                                                                                                                                             07
                                                                                                                                                        06




                                                                                                                                                                                        07
                                                                                                     l- 0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           l- 0
                                                                                            -0




                                                                                                                                                                                                          -0


                                                                                                                                                                                                                  -0
                                                                                                               -0




                                                                                                                                                                                                r- 0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     -0
                                                                                                                                            -0
                                                                                                                                  -0
                                                                                                                         -0




                                                                                                                                                                n-


                                                                                                                                                                           n-
                                                                                                                                                     g-




                                                                                                                                                                                     v-
                                                                                             b




                                                                                                                                                                                                           p


                                                                                                                                                                                                                   b
                                                                                                                c




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      c
                                                                                                                                   t


                                                                                                                                         ar
                                                                                                                      ay
                                                                                                  Ju




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Ju
                                                                                                                                Oc




                                                                                                                                                                                             Ap
                                                                                                             De




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   De
                                                                                          Fe




                                                                                                                                                                                                        Se


                                                                                                                                                                                                                Fe
                                                                                                                                                             Ja


                                                                                                                                                                        Ju
                                                                                                                                                  Au




                                                                                                                                                                                  No
                                                                                                                                         M
                                                                                                                      M




CMI Index values over 50 indicate expansion while CMI Index values below 50 indicate contraction.

Source: National Association of Credit Management


  Transportation & Logistics
 Freight Transportation & Logistics Group                                                                                                            CONFIDENTIAL                                                                                            7 7
Manufacturing Orders Showing Growth                                                                                                                                                Equity Research




                    New Manufacturing Orders Weakened Dramatically Through the End of 2008; 2009
                   Comparisons Rebounded, With July Through December Showing Increasing Y/Y Growth;
                     January Growth Pulled Back Slightly From December; Is This Growth Sustainable?
                                                                                              Manufacturing New Orders
                                                                                                 Jan. 1997 - Jan. 2010
                                                                                         New Orders (SA)       Y/Y % Change
                                                         75                                                                                              210%

                                                                                                                                                         180%
                                                         65
                                                                                                                                                         150%
                                  ISM New Orders Index




                                                         55                                                                                              120%




                                                                                                                                                                 Y/Y % Change
                                                                                                                                                         90%                    Jan-10:
                                                         45                                                                                                                     98.5%
                                                                                                                                                         60%

                                                         35                                                                                              30%

                                                                                                                                                         0%
                                                         25
                                                                                                                                                         -30%

                                                         15                                                                                               -60%
                                                           1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010



Source: Institute for Supply Management


  Transportation & Logistics
 Freight Transportation & Logistics Group                                                            CONFIDENTIAL                                                                           8 8
Manufacturing Inventories Growing While
     Customers’ Inventories Continue Decline                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Equity Research




                                                                 Was 2H09 Strength Tied to Inventory Replenishment at the Supplier and Manufacturing Levels?
                                                                                              Manufacturing Supplier Deliveries                                                                                                                                                                 Manufacturing Inventories
                                                                                                    Jan. 1997 - Jan. 2010                                                                                                                                                                         Jan. 1997 - Jan. 2010
                                                                                              Supplier Deliveries (SA)       Y/Y % Change                                                                                                                                              Manufacturers' Inventories (SA)           Y/Y % Change
                                                            70                                                                                                       40%                                                                                 70                                                                                                           40%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      30%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ISM Manufacturing Inventories Index
                                                                                                                                                                     20%                                                                                 60                                                                                                           20%
 ISM Supplier Deliveries Index




                                                            60




                                                                                                                                                                             Y/Y % Change
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      10%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Y/Y % Change
                                                                                                                                                                     0%                                                                                  50                                                                                                           0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      -10%
                                                            50
                                                                                                                                                                     -20%                                                                                40                                                                                                           -20%

                                                                                                                                           Jan. 32.7%                                                                                                                                                                            Jan. 24.0%                           -30%

                                                            40                                                                                                        -40%                                                                               30                                                                                                          -40%
                                                              1997   1998    1999    2000    2001   2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007   2008   2009    2010                                                                                     1997   1998   1999   2000    2001     2002     2003     2004   2005    2006   2007   2008   2009      2010
                                                                                            Manufacturing Customers' Inventories                                                                                                                                                                     Retail Inventories
                                                                                                    Jan. 1998 - Jan. 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan. 1996- Dec. 2009
                                                                                             Customers' Inventories (SA)           Y/Y % Change
                                                            65                                                                                                         30%                                                                                                                     Retail Inventories (SA)    Y/Y % Change
           ISM Manufacturing Customers' Inventories Index




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         550                                                                                                           10%
                                                            60                                                                                                         20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Retail Inventories (SA in 000's)
                                                                                                                                                                       10%                                                                               500                                                                                                           5%
                                                            55
                                                                                                                                                                                            Y/Y % Change




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Y/Y % Change
                                                                                                                                                                       0%
                                                            50                                                                                                                                                                                           450                                                                                                           0%
                                                                                                                                                                       -10%
                                                            45
                                                                                                                                                                       -20%                                                                              400                                                                                                           -5%
                                                            40
                                                                                                                                                                       -30%

                                                            35
                                                                                                                                            Jan. -42.3%                                                                                                  350
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Dec. -10.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       -10%
                                                                                                                                                                       -40%

                                                            30                                                                                                         -50%                                                                              300                                                                                                           -15%
                                                              1998    1999    2000     2001      2002    2003      2004    2005     2006    2007   2008    2009    2010                                                                                     1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Manufacturing Data through January 2010, Retail Inventories through December 2009
Source for top two and bottom left graphs: Institute for Supply Management; Source for bottom right graph: U.S. Census Bureau

      Transportation & Logistics
     Freight Transportation & Logistics Group                                                                                                                        CONFIDENTIAL                                                                                                                                                                                     9 9
IS Ratio Spike Was Due to Dramatic
        Downturn in Sales                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Equity Research




                                          Inventory Levels Appear to Have Adjusted to “New Normal” Demand Levels; Did Manufacturers
                                                                               Restock Too Early?
                                                     Manufacturers Inventories, total ($bn)         Inventory/Sales Ratio                                                                                                          Wholesale Inventories, total ($bn)       Inventory/Sales Ratio

                                        600                                                                                     1.5                                                                                 500                                                                                    1.4
      Manufacturers Inventories ($bn)




                                                                                                                                1.45




                                                                                                                                                                                      Wholesale Inventories ($bn)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1.35
                                        550                             Dec-09 I/S Ratio:                                                                                                                           450                                Dec-09 I/S Ratio:
                                                                                                                                1.4                                                                                                                                                                        1.3
                                                                                1.29                                            1.35                                                                                                                          1.12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      I/S Ratio
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    400




                                                                                                                                        I/S Ratio
                                        500                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1.25
                                                                                                                                1.3
                                        450                                                                                                                                                                         350                                                                                    1.2
                                                                                                                                1.25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1.15
                                                                                                                                1.2
                                        400                                                                                                                                                                         300
                                                                                                                                1.15                                                                                                                                                                       1.1

                                        350                                                                                   1.1                                                                                   250                                                                                  1.05
                                           Dec-01   Dec-02   Dec-03   Dec-04    Dec-05     Dec-06    Dec-07    Dec-08    Dec-09                                                                                        Dec-01   Dec-02   Dec-03   Dec-04    Dec-05      Dec-06   Dec-07   Dec-08    Dec-09



                                                         Retail Inventories, total ($bn)      Inventory/Sales Ratio                                                                                                                Business Inventories, total ($bn)        Inventory/Sales Ratio

                                        550                                                                                      1.7                                                           1,600                                                                                                        1.50
                                                                        Dec-09 I/S Ratio:                                        1.65                    Business Inventories ($bn)                                                                    Dec-09 I/S Ratio:
                                                                                                                                                                                               1,500                                                                                                        1.45
Retail Inventories ($bn)




                                        500                                     1.37                                             1.6                                                                                                                          1.26
                                                                                                                                                                                               1,400                                                                                                        1.40




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         I/S Ratio
                                                                                                                                             I/S Ratio




                                                                                                                                 1.55
                                        450                                                                                                                                                    1,300                                                                                                        1.35
                                                                                                                                 1.5
                                                                                                                                                                                               1,200                                                                                                        1.30
                                                                                                                                 1.45
                                        400
                                                                                                                                 1.4                                                           1,100                                                                                                        1.25

                                        350                                                                                      1.35                                                          1,000                                                                                                     1.20
                                           Dec-01   Dec-02   Dec-03   Dec-04     Dec-05    Dec-06     Dec-07    Dec-08      Dec-09                                                                  Dec-01                      Dec-02   Dec-03   Dec-04   Dec-05       Dec-06   Dec-07   Dec-08    Dec-09
Source: U.S. Census Bureau


         Transportation & Logistics
        Freight Transportation & Logistics Group                                                                                CONFIDENTIAL                                                                                                                                                                1010
Existing Housing Sales Showing Nice
       Rebound; New Home Sales Remain Anemic                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Equity Research




                                          Freight Tied to Residential Construction Remains Relatively Weak; Strength in Existing Home Sales
                                                                        Has Generated Some Incremental Traffic

                                                      New Home Sales Remain Negative Even as Comps                                                                                                                                                                            Existing Home Sales Reach Highest Level Since
                                                                Get Progressively Easier                                                                                                                                                                                                     February 2007
                                                                                            New Home Sales                              Y/Y% Change                                                                                                                                                            Existing Home Sales                                Y/Y% Change
                                         1,500                                                                                                                                                      40.0%                                                         7,500                                                                                                                                                        50.0%
 New Home Sales (Annual rate in 000's)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Existing Home Sales (Annual Rate in
                                                                                                                                                                                                    30.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  7,000                                                                                                                                                        40.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                    20.0%
                                         1,200




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Y/Y % Change
                                                                                                                                                                                                    10.0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                      30.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  6,500

                                                                                                                                                                                                             Y/Y % Change
                                                                                                                                                                                                    0.0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                       20.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  6,000



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          000's)
                                          900                                                                                                                                                       -10.0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                     10.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                    -20.0%                                                        5,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               0.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                    -30.0%                                                        5,000
                                          600                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  -10.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                    -40.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  4,500                                                                                                                                                        -20.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                    -50.0%
                                          300                                                                                                                                                       -60.0%                                                        4,000   5/31/2005                                                                                                                                            -30.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      10/31/2005

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3/31/2006

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 8/31/2006

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1/31/2007

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6/30/2007

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     11/30/2007

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  4/30/2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              9/30/2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2/28/2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      7/30/2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  12/30/2009
                                                 5/31/2005

                                                             10/31/2005

                                                                          3/31/2006

                                                                                      8/31/2006

                                                                                                  1/31/2007

                                                                                                              6/30/2007

                                                                                                                          11/30/2007

                                                                                                                                       4/30/2008

                                                                                                                                                   9/30/2008

                                                                                                                                                               2/28/2009

                                                                                                                                                                           7/30/2009

                                                                                                                                                                                       12/30/2009




Left Graph current through December 2009, Right Graph current through December 2009

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors

        Transportation & Logistics
       Freight Transportation & Logistics Group                                                                                                                                                        CONFIDENTIAL                                                                                                                                                                                                              1111
A Bottom Seen in New Home Construction?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Equity Research




                                              On an Absolute Basis, January Building Permits Took a Small Step Down From December; Many
                                                Local Markets Still Appear Overbuilt; Lack of Credit Remains a Big Issue; Extended Tax
                                                              Credit For New Home Buyers Has Been Stimulating Activity
                                                         Monthly Housing Starts Fell 17.2% Year-Over-Year                                                                                                                           Building Permits fell 22.3% Year-Over-Year
                                                                   in January; A Bottom Seen?                                                                                                                                                       in January
                                                                   Housing Starts      6 mo. Moving Avg. Y/Y% change                                                                                                                 New Building Permits       6 Month Moving Avg. %Y/Y change
                                   2,350                                                                                       20.0%




                                                                                                                                                                          New Building Permits (Seasonally Adjusted
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2,400                                                                             20.0%




                                                                                                                                         6 Mo. Moving Avg. Y/Y % Change




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   6 Month Moving Avg. Y/Y % Change
 New Housing Starts (Seasonally Adjusted in




                                   2,100                                                                                       10.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2,150                                                                             10.0%
                                   1,850                                                                                       0.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1,900                                                                             0.0%




                                                                                                                                                                                        in Thousands)
                                   1,600                                                                                       -10.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1,650                                                                             -10.0%
                Thousands)




                                   1,350                                                                                       -20.0%                                                                                 1,400                                                                             -20.0%

                                   1,100                                                                                       -30.0%                                                                                 1,150                                                                             -30.0%

                                              850                                                                              -40.0%                                                                                  900                                                                              -40.0%

                                              600                                                                              -50.0%                                                                                  650                                                                              -50.0%

                                              350                                                                               -60.0%                                                                                 400                                                                              -60.0%
                                                Jan-02    Jan-03    Jan-04    Jan-05   Jan-06   Jan-07   Jan-08   Jan-09   Jan-10                                                                                        Jan-02   Jan-03   Jan-04   Jan-05     Jan-06   Jan-07   Jan-08   Jan-09   Jan-10


                                                                                Jan-10 Starts                                                                                                                                                               Jan-10 Permits
                                                                                  591,000                                                                                                                                                                      621,000

                                                                               Fall From Peak                                                                                                                                                               Fall From Peak
Data through January 2010                                                           -73.9%                                                                                                                                                                       -72.6%
Source for all graphs: U.S. Dept. of Commerce

     Transportation & Logistics
    Freight Transportation & Logistics Group                                                                                      CONFIDENTIAL                                                                                                                                                                1212
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2010 John Larkin

  • 1. 2010 Food Shippers of America Conference Equity Research Some Seasonal Strengthening Has Occurred In The Freight Markets; However, The Road To Recovery Will Be Gradual John Larkin, CFA Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated (443) 224-1315 jglarkin@stifel.com Images courtesy of KNX, SAIA, FDX and BNSF February 23, 2010 All relevant disclosures and certifications can be found on pages 46-47 of this report. Transportation & Logistics Freight Transportation & Logistics Group CONFIDENTIAL 1 1
  • 2. 2010 Food Shippers of America Conference Equity Research Outline I. The Economy Is Gradually Recovering: Sustainability Is An Issue II. Freight Volumes Are Reflecting The Economic Recovery III. Each Freight Transportation Sector Is Driven By Unique Factors IV. Short Term Predictions – “Not Out Of The Woods Yet” V. Longer Term Predictions – “The Future Will Be Bright” Transportation & Logistics Freight Transportation & Logistics Group CONFIDENTIAL 2 2
  • 3. Macroeconomic Indicators Remain Relatively Soft Equity Research Real Consumer Spending “Cratered” in 2008 But Hasn‟t Improved Much Real Retail Sales Increased 2.4% Y/Y in December; It Appears That The Worst May Be Behind Us CPI-Adjusted Retail Sales Y/Y% Change 190 8.0% 6.0% 180 4.0% Decline From Monthly Retail Sales ($ bn) 2.0% Peak Y/Y % Change 170 0.0% -9.5% -2.0% 160 -4.0% -6.0% 150 -8.0% -10.0% 140 -12.0% Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Chart displays seasonally adjusted data Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Company data Transportation & Logistics Freight Transportation & Logistics Group CONFIDENTIAL 3 3
  • 4. U.S. Consumers Are Saving More to Offset Real Estate and Investment Portfolio Losses Equity Research Increased Savings = Reduced Consumption; Is This a Permanent Change in Behavior? U.S. Personal Savings ($ in Billions) U.S. Personal Savings Rate (%) 1952 - 2009 1952 - 2009 DPI Less Personal Outlays - Inflation Adj. to 1952 ($ BN) 80 15.0% 70 Personal Savings / Disposable Inc. (%) 60 10.0% 50 40 30 5.0% 20 10 0 0.0% 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Monthly U.S. Personal Savings ($ in Billions) Monthly U.S. Personal Savings Rate (%) Figures Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates Figures Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2009 Jan. 2007 - Dec. 2009 850 7.0% 750 DPI Less Personal Outlays ($ BN) Personal Savings / Disposable Inc. (%) 6.0% 650 5.0% 550 4.0% 450 350 3.0% 250 2.0% 150 1.0% 50 0.0% (50) -1.0% Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 May-07 May-08 May-09 Mar-07 Mar-08 Feb-07 Nov-07 Nov-08 Mar-09 Nov-09 Jul-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Jan-07 Jun-07 Dec-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Dec-08 Dec-09 Oct-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Apr-07 Aug-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Feb-07 May-07 Mar-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 May-09 Mar-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 Mar-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Dec-07 Jun-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Dec-08 Jun-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 *DPI less Personal Outlays in May 2008 and Personal Saving as a Percentage of Personal Disposable Income in May 2008 are not comparable due to the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, when the Government issued rebate payments of $1.9 billion in April, $48.1 billion in May, and $27.9 billion in June and $13.7 billion in July. The stimulus package effectively reduced the level of personal taxes, which are part of the calculations for Savings in dollars and percentage savings rate. Personal savings is disposable personal income net of personal outlays Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Transportation & Logistics Freight Transportation & Logistics Group CONFIDENTIAL 4 4
  • 5. ISM Index Suggests Manufacturing Growth Equity Research ISM Index in January Suggested Growth in the Manufacturing Economy For the Sixth Consecutive Time Since July ‟09; Export Growth Had Been Masking Domestic Manufacturing Weakness For Most of „08 65.0 60.0 55.0 ISM Index 50.0 Jan-10 45.0 58.4 40.0 35.0 30.0 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 ISM Index values over 50 indicate industrial growth while ISM Index values below 50 indicate industrial contraction. Source: Institute for Supply Management Transportation & Logistics Freight Transportation & Logistics Group CONFIDENTIAL 5 5
  • 6. Industrial Production Recovering Slowly Equity Research Tonnage-Weighted Industrial Production Has Been Slightly Weaker Than Value-Weighted Industrial Production Due to Steep Declines in Heavy Building/Construction Materials and Automotive Volumes and Emphasis Given to More Concentrated/Compact Products With Smaller Packaging U.S. Industrial Production Index Tonnage-Weighted Industrial Production Index Jan. 1999- Jan. 2010 Nov. 1998- Nov. 2009 Industrial Production Y/Y% Change Tonnage Weighted IP Index Y/Y % Change 110.0 10.0% 120.0 10.0% 100.0 5.0% 100.0 5.0% Industrial Production Index Tonnage-Weighted IP Index 90.0 0.0% 80.0 0.0% Y/Y % Change Y/Y % Change 80.0 -5.0% 60.0 -5.0% 70.0 40.0 -10.0% -10.0% 60.0 20.0 -15.0% 50.0 -15.0% 0.0 -20.0% 40.0 -20.0% Nov-98 Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Data in both graphs are adjusted for PPI, excluding food and energy Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, American Trucking Associations Transportation & Logistics Freight Transportation & Logistics Group CONFIDENTIAL 6 6
  • 7. Credit Managers Index Somewhat Encouraging Equity Research Recent Credit Managers Index (CMI) Data Suggests Commercial Business Transactions Have Expanded in Each of the Past Three Months; December ‟09 CMI Highest Since January „08 60 Combined Manufacturing and Services CMI (SA Index) 55 50 Dec-09 52.9 45 40 4 9 4 9 4 5 8 9 8 07 5 6 07 06 07 l- 0 l- 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 r- 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 n- n- g- v- b p b c c t ar ay Ju Ju Oc Ap De De Fe Se Fe Ja Ju Au No M M CMI Index values over 50 indicate expansion while CMI Index values below 50 indicate contraction. Source: National Association of Credit Management Transportation & Logistics Freight Transportation & Logistics Group CONFIDENTIAL 7 7
  • 8. Manufacturing Orders Showing Growth Equity Research New Manufacturing Orders Weakened Dramatically Through the End of 2008; 2009 Comparisons Rebounded, With July Through December Showing Increasing Y/Y Growth; January Growth Pulled Back Slightly From December; Is This Growth Sustainable? Manufacturing New Orders Jan. 1997 - Jan. 2010 New Orders (SA) Y/Y % Change 75 210% 180% 65 150% ISM New Orders Index 55 120% Y/Y % Change 90% Jan-10: 45 98.5% 60% 35 30% 0% 25 -30% 15 -60% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Institute for Supply Management Transportation & Logistics Freight Transportation & Logistics Group CONFIDENTIAL 8 8
  • 9. Manufacturing Inventories Growing While Customers’ Inventories Continue Decline Equity Research Was 2H09 Strength Tied to Inventory Replenishment at the Supplier and Manufacturing Levels? Manufacturing Supplier Deliveries Manufacturing Inventories Jan. 1997 - Jan. 2010 Jan. 1997 - Jan. 2010 Supplier Deliveries (SA) Y/Y % Change Manufacturers' Inventories (SA) Y/Y % Change 70 40% 70 40% 30% ISM Manufacturing Inventories Index 20% 60 20% ISM Supplier Deliveries Index 60 Y/Y % Change 10% Y/Y % Change 0% 50 0% -10% 50 -20% 40 -20% Jan. 32.7% Jan. 24.0% -30% 40 -40% 30 -40% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Manufacturing Customers' Inventories Retail Inventories Jan. 1998 - Jan. 2010 Jan. 1996- Dec. 2009 Customers' Inventories (SA) Y/Y % Change 65 30% Retail Inventories (SA) Y/Y % Change ISM Manufacturing Customers' Inventories Index 550 10% 60 20% Retail Inventories (SA in 000's) 10% 500 5% 55 Y/Y % Change Y/Y % Change 0% 50 450 0% -10% 45 -20% 400 -5% 40 -30% 35 Jan. -42.3% 350 Dec. -10.9% -10% -40% 30 -50% 300 -15% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Manufacturing Data through January 2010, Retail Inventories through December 2009 Source for top two and bottom left graphs: Institute for Supply Management; Source for bottom right graph: U.S. Census Bureau Transportation & Logistics Freight Transportation & Logistics Group CONFIDENTIAL 9 9
  • 10. IS Ratio Spike Was Due to Dramatic Downturn in Sales Equity Research Inventory Levels Appear to Have Adjusted to “New Normal” Demand Levels; Did Manufacturers Restock Too Early? Manufacturers Inventories, total ($bn) Inventory/Sales Ratio Wholesale Inventories, total ($bn) Inventory/Sales Ratio 600 1.5 500 1.4 Manufacturers Inventories ($bn) 1.45 Wholesale Inventories ($bn) 1.35 550 Dec-09 I/S Ratio: 450 Dec-09 I/S Ratio: 1.4 1.3 1.29 1.35 1.12 I/S Ratio 400 I/S Ratio 500 1.25 1.3 450 350 1.2 1.25 1.15 1.2 400 300 1.15 1.1 350 1.1 250 1.05 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Retail Inventories, total ($bn) Inventory/Sales Ratio Business Inventories, total ($bn) Inventory/Sales Ratio 550 1.7 1,600 1.50 Dec-09 I/S Ratio: 1.65 Business Inventories ($bn) Dec-09 I/S Ratio: 1,500 1.45 Retail Inventories ($bn) 500 1.37 1.6 1.26 1,400 1.40 I/S Ratio I/S Ratio 1.55 450 1,300 1.35 1.5 1,200 1.30 1.45 400 1.4 1,100 1.25 350 1.35 1,000 1.20 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Transportation & Logistics Freight Transportation & Logistics Group CONFIDENTIAL 1010
  • 11. Existing Housing Sales Showing Nice Rebound; New Home Sales Remain Anemic Equity Research Freight Tied to Residential Construction Remains Relatively Weak; Strength in Existing Home Sales Has Generated Some Incremental Traffic New Home Sales Remain Negative Even as Comps Existing Home Sales Reach Highest Level Since Get Progressively Easier February 2007 New Home Sales Y/Y% Change Existing Home Sales Y/Y% Change 1,500 40.0% 7,500 50.0% New Home Sales (Annual rate in 000's) Existing Home Sales (Annual Rate in 30.0% 7,000 40.0% 20.0% 1,200 Y/Y % Change 10.0% 30.0% 6,500 Y/Y % Change 0.0% 20.0% 6,000 000's) 900 -10.0% 10.0% -20.0% 5,500 0.0% -30.0% 5,000 600 -10.0% -40.0% 4,500 -20.0% -50.0% 300 -60.0% 4,000 5/31/2005 -30.0% 10/31/2005 3/31/2006 8/31/2006 1/31/2007 6/30/2007 11/30/2007 4/30/2008 9/30/2008 2/28/2009 7/30/2009 12/30/2009 5/31/2005 10/31/2005 3/31/2006 8/31/2006 1/31/2007 6/30/2007 11/30/2007 4/30/2008 9/30/2008 2/28/2009 7/30/2009 12/30/2009 Left Graph current through December 2009, Right Graph current through December 2009 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors Transportation & Logistics Freight Transportation & Logistics Group CONFIDENTIAL 1111
  • 12. A Bottom Seen in New Home Construction? Equity Research On an Absolute Basis, January Building Permits Took a Small Step Down From December; Many Local Markets Still Appear Overbuilt; Lack of Credit Remains a Big Issue; Extended Tax Credit For New Home Buyers Has Been Stimulating Activity Monthly Housing Starts Fell 17.2% Year-Over-Year Building Permits fell 22.3% Year-Over-Year in January; A Bottom Seen? in January Housing Starts 6 mo. Moving Avg. Y/Y% change New Building Permits 6 Month Moving Avg. %Y/Y change 2,350 20.0% New Building Permits (Seasonally Adjusted 2,400 20.0% 6 Mo. Moving Avg. Y/Y % Change 6 Month Moving Avg. Y/Y % Change New Housing Starts (Seasonally Adjusted in 2,100 10.0% 2,150 10.0% 1,850 0.0% 1,900 0.0% in Thousands) 1,600 -10.0% 1,650 -10.0% Thousands) 1,350 -20.0% 1,400 -20.0% 1,100 -30.0% 1,150 -30.0% 850 -40.0% 900 -40.0% 600 -50.0% 650 -50.0% 350 -60.0% 400 -60.0% Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-10 Starts Jan-10 Permits 591,000 621,000 Fall From Peak Fall From Peak Data through January 2010 -73.9% -72.6% Source for all graphs: U.S. Dept. of Commerce Transportation & Logistics Freight Transportation & Logistics Group CONFIDENTIAL 1212