The document summarizes information from a sustainability workshop on global opportunities for sustainable bioethanol. It discusses the global biofuel market, public policies regarding biofuels, new bioethanol markets, land use needs, agricultural land availability, Brazilian bioethanol exports, sugarcane bioethanol productivity and energy balance, bioethanol competitiveness, production costs, the Brazilian experience with bioethanol including energy sources, prospects for technological improvements and sustainability enhancements.

1. CTBE
Sustainability workshop
May 14 - 15th 2009
Global Opportunities for
Sustainable Bioethanol
Marcelo Poppe
CGEE
Center for Strategic Studies and Management

2. World
Global biofuel market:
expansion, land use,
productivity, energy balance,
and competitiveness

3. World
Biofuels today
Reproduced from Unep, February 2009. The environmental food crisis

4. World
Public policies regarding biofuels

5. World
New bioethanol markets
Sweden Russia
Canada United Kingdom
Nederland Germany
France Swiss
Spain Italy
United States China
Japan
India
Mexico Thailand
Philippines
Colombia Venezuela
Peru BRAZIL
South Africa Australia
Argentina New
Zealand
World consumption: 50 billion liters in 2006  80 billion liters in 2010

6. World
Brazilian bioethanol exports
6
5
USA 56% - UE 30%
4
Billion liters
3
2
1
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Secex/Unica

7. World
Brazilian bioethanol exports
2006/2007
2,3%
Estados Unidos
2,7% Países Baixos (Holanda)
3,0% 7,6%
Japão
3,0% Suécia
5,2% Jamaica
46,8%
El Salvador
Trinidad e Tobago
Costa Rica
5,6%
Venezuela
6,3% Nigéria
7,0% Outros
10,5%
Fuel: 83,1% Other: 16,9%
Volum: 3,83 bilhões liters US$/m3: 485,23
Source: SECEX

8. World
Agricultural land availability
Source: World Watch Institute

9. World Land use needs for
sugarcane bioethanol
to provide a 10% blend in the global gasoline consumption (E10)
2005 basis
 Brazilian bioethanol production: 265 thousands b/d
 Brazilian land use: 2.6 million ha of sugarcane crops
 Gasoline world consumption: 20 million b/d
 Global ethanol production needs for E10 => 2.4 million b/d
 World land use needs => 24 million ha of sugarcane crops
to be disseminated among tropical humid Countries:
Latin America, Caribbean, Africa, Asia and Oceania

10. World Sugarcane producers
(130 countries instead of 20 oil providers)
Source: Adapted from Laura Tetti, 2005

11. World
Sugarcane bioethanol productivity and energy balance
Ethanol yields (liters per hectare)
Sources: IEA – International Energy Agency (2005)

12. World
Bioethanol competitiveness (1)
 Oil prices => US$ 60/b
 Gasoline prices => US$ 0,50 to 0,60/l
 Brazilian average bioethanol prices => US$ 0,35/l
 Logistics US$ 0,05/l
 FOB prices US$ 0,40/l
 Related benefits
 UNFCCC - Kyoto Protocol: GHG emission reduction
 Sugar: average cost US$ 300/t (13 c/lb, or 15 c/lb FOB)
 Competitive excess power generation: ~ US$ 150/MWh
 Increasing other by-products and residues valuation
(1) 2008: 2,25 R$/US$

13. World
Bioethanol production costs (1)
Sugar Ethanol
Country Raw material
[US$/t] [US$/l]
Brazil 120 0,20 Sugar cane
Thailand 178 0,29 Sugar cane
Australia 195 0,32 Sugar cane
United States 290 0,47 Corn
European Union 760 Beet
European Union 0,97 Cereal
Source: Datagro 2003 (1) 2003: 3 R$/US$

14. World
Bioethanol production costs (1)
Item USA Corn (Euro/hl) Germany Brazil Sugar cane
(Euro/hl)
Wheat (Euro/hl) Beetroot (Euro/hl)
Building 0,39 0,82 0,82 0,21
Equipments 3,40 5,30 5,30 1,15
Labor 2,83 1,40 1,40 0,52
Insurance, tax and others 0,61 1,02 1,02 0,48
Raw material 20,93 27,75 35,10 9,80
Other operational costs 11,31 18,68 15,93 2,32
Total production costs 39,48 54,96 59,57 14,48
Sub-products sale - 6,71 - 6,80 - 7,20 -
Federal and state subsidy - 7,93 - - -
Liquid production costs 24,84 48,16 52,37 14,48
(1) 3 R$/US$ e 1,20 US$/EURO Source: Henniges, 2004

15. Brazil
Bioethanol
Brazilian experience

16. Brazil Renewable and
non-renewable sources share
100 93,8
87,3
90
80
70
60 54,2
50 45,8
%
40
30
20 12,7
6,2
10
0
Brasil (2007) World (2005) OECD (2005)
CO2 emissions:
Brazil: 1.7 t/toe
Renewable sources Non-renewable sources
World: 2.4 t/toe

17. Brazil Domestic energy supply
Non renewables – 54,2% Renewables – 45,8%
5.8% 1.6%
15.1%
9.3%
12.6%
14.9%
37.5%
3.2%
Hydropower Firewood Sugar Cane Other Renewable Oil&Oil Products Natural Gas Coal Uranium
Source: Brazilian Energy Balance 2008
Source: BEN 2006

18. Brazil
Energy pattern - transport sector
Energy Consumption Transport Sector (1975) Energy Consumption Transport Sector (2005)
Electricity
Alcohol Electricity 0,2%
0,4% 0,2% Alcohol Natural gas
Kerosen 13,3% 3,3%
5,6%
Diesel oil Kerosen
37,3% 4,9%
Diesel oil
Gasoline Gasoline 50,9%
50,8% 25,9%
Fuel oil
5,6% Fuel oil
1,5%
1800
1600
r d c n n m ot f i
Po u tio a dI p r o o
1400 Import
(h u a db )
t o s n /d
1200 Production
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1975 2005
Year

19. Brazil Sugarcane culture
Farming (2007) Area
(Mha)
Soya 23
Corn 12
Sugar cane 7
Agriculture 70
Cattle 200
Country total area
851 Mha (100%)
Rural properties
area 355 Mha (42%)
Cultivated land area Amazon forest 400 Mha
70 Mha (8%) Pantanal 13 Mha
Sugarcane cropland for fuel Atlantic rain forest 3 Mha
3,5 Mha (0.5%)

20. Brazil Progress over 30 years
l/tc tc/ha m3/ha Learning curb
Source: Unica
85,00 7,50
35
80,00 7,00 1980
30
75,00 6,50
25
(2 0 0 4 ) U S $ / G J
70,00 6,00
20
1986
5,50
65,00 15 jul 2005
5,00
m3/ha
1990 2002 2004
tc/ha
60,00 10 1995
4,50 5 1999
55,00
4,00 0
50,00 3,50 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000
Ethanol Cumulative Production (thousand m3 )
45,00 3,00
Ethanol prices in Brazil Rotterdam regular gasoline price
40,00 2,50
04/05 long-term trend (Rotterdam gasoline prices) long-term trend (Ethanol prices)
05/06
06/07
03/04
02/03
95/96
96/97
97/98
01/02
93/94
94/95
98/99
99/00
00/01
92/93
91/92
89/90
90/91
86/87
87/88
88/89
77/78
79/80
80/81
81/82
82/83
84/85
85/86
76/77
78/79
83/84
7576
Source: J Goldemberg
Source:CTC

21. Brazil
Bioethanol from sugarcane
 25 billion litters produced & 5 billion litters exported
 Energetic biomass cost = US$ 1.4/GJ (industrial countries goal for 2020)
 420 industrial units (100 new ones)
 >70,000 producers; ~1,000,000 jobs
 Knowledge frontier expansion :
genetics, biotechnologies, hydrolysis...

22. Brazil Bioethanol for car
• Large experience using bioethanol as mixed fuel for vehicle (1925) ~ 5%
• Proálcool (1975):
• up to 25% of bioethanol blended in the gasoline (E 25)
• 5 million pure bioethanol powered cars manufactured
• Flex-fuel motors using the E 25 blend, bioethanol, or a mix of both (2003)
• 7 million flex-fuel cars manufactured; 90% of the 2008 new car market
• Only E 25 & bioethanol delivered by all the 35,000 Country’s fuel station
1925 1975 2003

23. Brazil
Switch to an energy business
100,96 t/h
CALDEIRA
66 bar - 520 º C
Quantidade de
Biopower in Country’s
η =86% Bagaço
46,1 Ton/h 35 t/h 65,96 t/h
5,7 kgv/kWh 3,6 Kgv/kWh
G
~
6.140kW
G
~ 18.322KW
electricity generation
η = 84% η = 84%
49,47 t/h
16,49 t/h
2007 3%
kW 4
PROCESSO
INDUSTRIAL
35,00 t/h
110 º C
2012 6%
150 º C
2020* 15%
Business income 2005 2015
bioethanol 39% 54%
bioelectricity 1% 16%
energy 40% 70% * COGEN 2008

24. Brazil
Bioethanol prospects
technological improvement
and sustainability enhancement

25. Soil & climate potential
Brazil for sugarcane culture
with irrigation
without irrigation “salvation”
(< 2.000 m3/ha.year)
Amazon Rainforest
Pantanal Other important Above 12% slope
preservation areas area (75 Mha)
Atlantic Forest
High Good Medium Inadequate
(> 80 t/ha) (> 70 t/ha) (> 60 t/ha) Source: CGEE – NIPE/Unicamp - CTC

26. Brazil Scenarios of
land use needs for sugarcane production (2025)
*Taking in account agro-ecological criteria and existing temporary and permanent cultures
Global Technology Sugar Ethanol Ethanol Total Available
ethanol (Mha) (Mha) internal exports land land*
consump market (Mha) (Mha) (Mha)
tion (Mha)
Scenario 1 102,5 Present 3.6 6.8 15.2 25.6 80
E5 bl/y
Progressive 3.2 4.8 12.0 20.0 80
Scenario 2 205 Present 3.6 6.8 30.4 40.8 80
E10 bl/y
Progressive 3.2 4.8 24.0 32.0 80
60% of Pantanal area
20% - environment reserve 8
2.6 times Atlantic rain forest area
Source: CGEE – NIPE/Unicamp

27. Brazil Scenario E 5 for 2025
Socio-economic impacts
Investments during 20 years US$ 5 billion/year
Results per year in 2025
Ethanol production 102.5 billion liters
Excess power production 55 TWh (15% of the 2004 power market)
Ethanol exports US$ 30 billion
GDP increasing US$ 75 billion
Considering direct, indirect and induced revenue (input-output matrix)
Jobs 5.3 million
Level of salary 50% over the national average salary
Source: CGEE – NIPE/Unicamp

28. Brazil
Scientific and technological base
Scientific publications related with the sugar cane
Pesquisa em cana-de-açúcar
140
EUA
Brasil
120 São Paulo
Índia
100 Austrália
China
80
60
40
20
0
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Literature research: (TS=(sugarcane or "sugar cane" or
Sacchacarum) or TI=(sugarcane or "sugar cane" or Sacchacarum)
Source: ISI – Web of Science (29/09/2006) NOT TS=(alcoholism or psychiatr* or clinic or medicin*)

29. Brazil
Bioenergy technology road map
Source: http://www.ifpri.org/2020/focus/focus14/focus14.pdf

31. Brazil
Bioethanol Science and Technology Centre
National laboratory, working with the scientific and
industrial Brazilian communities. It collaborates with basic
research and technological development along the
sugarcane & bioethanol chain. Its mission involve the
construction of public and private partnerships.

32. Brazil
National Science and Technology Institute
for Bioethanol Biotechnology
Research network

33. Brazil
Bioethanol R&D&I agenda
 Better photosynthesis comprehension
 Conventional genetic improvement and genetic engineering
 Production models and infrastructure development
 Biotechnologies, agriculture of precision and optimization of inputs
 Mechanical harvest, without burning and with straw collecting
 Pre-processing and stock of bagasse and straw
 Fermentation, grinding and distillation improvements
 Management and automation (advanced system)
 Reduction of water and energy consumption and recycle of effluents
 Increase of the excess power generation
 Alcohol-chemistry, sugar-chemistry and biorefinery
 Hydrolysis, gasification (F-T) and pyrolysis of bagasse and straw
 Sugar-cane of high biomass - "energy cane"

34. Brazil Genetics
new varieties adapted to local soils and climate and resistent against diseases
Biofactory: quick multiplication
Sugarcane of high biomass: energy cane

35. Brazil Next generation
Low impact mechanization
Recycle
Hydrolysis
Gasification
Pyrolysis
Biorefineries

36. Brazil
Productivity prospects
(agro-industrial technologies)
2005 2015 2025
Sugar cane 70 t/ha 82 t/ha 94 t/ha
Industrial l/tc l/ha l/tc l/ha l/tc l/ha
technology
Conventional 85 6,000 100 8,200 110 10,400
Hydrolysis --- ---- 15 1,200 40 3,600
Total 85 6,000 115 9,400 150 14,000
Source: CGEE – NIPE/Unicamp

37. Brazil
Primary energy potential improvement
Sugar cane Energy cane
Productivity (t/ha) 70 100
Fiber (%) 13.5 26.0
Trash (%) 14.0 25.0
Pol (%) 14.5 12.0
Total fiber (t/ha) 19.3 51.0
Energy (GJ/ha) 520 1,100
(12.5 toe) (26 toe)
Source: CGEE – NIPE/Unicamp

38. World
Biofuel production awareness
 Careful planning
 Exclusion of protect areas
 Regards to food security
 Crop choices matching geo-climate conditions
 Productivity, and energy & GHG emission balances
 Agricultural best-practices
 Products and processes certification
 Environmental, social and economic sustainability

39. World
Biofuel favorable externalities
 Regional, country & local development
 Energy security enhancement
 GHG emission reduction
 Local pollution reduction
 Oil imports reduction
 Oil exports expansion
 Currency saving
 Job creation
 Rural migration contention

40. World
Remarkable perception
“I foresee the time when industry shall no longer
denude the forests which require generations to
mature, nor use up the mines which were ages in the
making, but shall draw its raw material largely from the
annual products of the fields. I am convinced that we
shall be able to get out of the yearly crops most of the
basic materials which we now get from forest and
mine” [Henry Ford, Modern Mechanics (1934)]

41. Brazil Studies related to
Bioethanol
NAE Journals: Biofuels Study on the role of State Agricultural
Study commissioned by the Nucleus of Strategic Issues Research Organizations (OEPAs)
of the Presidency of the Republic Study under the Management Contract signed
Coordination: Isaías Macedo & Luiz A. Horta Nogueira between MCT and CGEE

42. Brazil Studies related to
Bioethanol
Studies commissioned to Nipe/Unicamp, and involving CTC and Transpetro
Coordination: Rogério Cezar de Cerqueira Leite / Luís Augusto Barbosa Cortez
Supervision: CGEE

43. Brazil Studies related to
Bioethanol
Studies commissioned to Nipe/Unicamp, and involving CTC and Cenea
Coordination: Rogério Cezar de Cerqueira Leite / Luís Augusto Barbosa Cortez
Supervision: CGEE

44. Book in four languages
launched during the
International Conference on
Biofuels, held in São Paulo
(November 2008)
www.bioetanoldecana.org
www.bioetanoldecanadeazucar.org
www.sugarcanebioethanol.org
www.bioetanoldecanne.org
Partnership: BNDES, CGEE, ECLAC and FAO
Coordination: Luiz A. Horta Nogueira

45. Thank You !
Marcelo Poppe
mpoppe@cgee.org.br
www.cgee.org.br

46. World
Global challenge
Three quarters of the world's energy supply come
from fossil fuels, responsible for large local pollution
loads and for most of the greenhouse gases
emissions. The scale on which they are being used
will quickly lead to their depletion. The world energy
consumption should grow as a result of the progress
of many of the world’s developing regions. Industrial
countries have not succeeded in reducing energy
use without compromising the quality of life, even
though it is known that this can and must be done.
The challenge, therefore, is to seek renewable
energy sources and to increase efficiencies in energy
production and use on an unprecedented scale.