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Real Estate Breakfast Seminar
       December 2009
November GDP projection based on market interest rate
    expectations and £200 billion asset purchases




                                            West Midlands Agency
Projection of the level of GDP based on market interest rate
       expectations and £200 billion asset purchases




                                                 West Midlands Agency
November CPI inflation projection based on £200 billion asset
                        purchases



   …and market interest             …and constant interest
    rate expectations                      rates




                                                   West Midlands Agency
Quantitative Easing




                      West Midlands Agency
Nominal GDP and broad money




                              West Midlands Agency
Equity prices




                West Midlands Agency
Investment-grade corporate bond spreads




                                      West Midlands Agency
Credit Conditions




                    West Midlands Agency
Corporate credit availability




                                West Midlands Agency
Approvals of new loan and overdraft facilities for SMEs




                                               West Midlands Agency
World Economy




                West Midlands Agency
Contributions to successive IMF forecasts for world
               GDP growth in 2010




                                            West Midlands Agency
UK export market share and the sterling
       effective exchange rate




                                    West Midlands Agency
UK Economy




             West Midlands Agency
UK GDP growth


                             GDP Growth                 Percentage change
         Annual
                                                                            6
         Quarterly
                                                                            4

                                                                            2

                                                                            0

                                                                            -2

                                                                            -4

                                                                            -6

                                                                            -8
1990   1992   1994   1996   1998   2000   2002   2004    2006   2008




                                                                   West Midlands Agency
Consumption




              West Midlands Agency
Business investment to GDP ratio




                                   West Midlands Agency
Public sector net borrowing




                              West Midlands Agency
GDP and employment




                     West Midlands Agency
Costs and prices




                   West Midlands Agency
Distribution of private sector wage settlements




                                            West Midlands Agency
Energy prices




                West Midlands Agency
CPI, RPI and RPIX inflation

                       Inflation: CPI, RPIX and RPI
                                         Percentage change on a year earlier
                                                                                     7
         CPI
         RPIX                                                                        6
         RPI                                                                         5
                                                                                     4
                                                                                     3
                                                                                     2
                                                                                     1
                                                                                     0
                                                                                    -1
                                                                                    -2
                                                                                    -3
2000   2001   2002    2003   2004   2005    2006   2007    2008      2009

                                                             West Midlands Agency
Prospects for growth and inflation




                                     West Midlands Agency
November GDP projection based on market interest rate
    expectations and £200 billion asset purchases




                                             West Midlands Agency
November CPI inflation projection based on £200 billion asset
                        purchases



   …and market interest             …and constant interest
    rate expectations                      rates




                                                   West Midlands Agency
www.bankofengland.co.uk




                          West Midlands Agency
QE – Stylised transmission mechanism




                                  West Midlands Agency
Contributions to quarterly GDP growth




                                        West Midlands Agency

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