3. China Return To Gold Would Aid Yuan, Bring Other Problems
Were China to set the yuan to a gold standard, it would potentially
destabilise the currency and require an exchange rate of $64,000
an ounce, based on Bloomberg Intelligence analysis.
China, the world’s largest gold consumer, is trying to establish the
yuan as a globally recognised reserve currency. A gold standard
would help China quickly establish the currency’s reserve status. A
return to the gold standard would be a complex move, involving
complications with reserves, price and monetary stimulus.
4. China aims to make the yuan a global
reserve currency
5. China’s Currency Supply Is Ample, While Its Global Trading Is Not
China’s long-term goal is to make the yuan a global reserve
currency—to do that the Chinese must make the currency freely
convertible. The sheer amount of Chinese currency, as measured
by M2, is staggering.
At the current pace, China will have more M2, in U.S. dollar terms,
than the U.S. and euro combined by late 2015. If not properly
managed, making a currency freely convertible could destabilise
it. China may opt to back its currency, either implicitly or explicitly,
in some form with gold.
6.
7. Chinese Yuan Is No. 5 Most Traded, Yet A Blip On Global Reserves
The yuan does not even register as a significant global reserve
currency, hence China’s motivation to adopt a gold standard. The
yuan is relegated to the ‘other’ category by the IMF, barely used
by global central banks as a reserve currency. Impediments to the
yuan’s free flow have been responsible for this historical lack of
use.
This is rapidly changing as the yuan is now the fifth most-traded
currency. China aims to open up its currency market to major flows
and to have the yuan become an important reserve currency.
10. Gold Imposes Discipline—That’s Why Central Bankers Hate It
Central bank actions can drive up gold prices, even as bankers
often disdain the metal because gold-backed currencies limit their
abilities to manipulate money flows and M2 supply. In most cases,
central banks are limited in their ability to affect gold.
The U.S. dollar is seen as safer than gold given that, currently, the
Federal Reserve’s money supply growth is not enough to increase
inflation. This keeps pressure on gold prices. Investors in emerging
markets use gold to combat intentional currency devaluation and
inflation.
11.
12. China Gold Standard Would Need $64,000-An-Ounce Exchange
Rate
China could put the yuan onto a gold standard, depending upon
the setup, what is backed, the ratio, and the exchange methods as
well as the transparency. The backing could be implicit or explicit.
If China wanted to back its base currency on a M0 currency
basis, with 10,000 metric tonnes of gold, it would need a current
exchange ratio of $3,111 an ounce, in dollar terms, based on BI
calculations. For M1, the dollar figure rises to $16,918. If all of M2 is
backed, the ratio would be more than $60,000 an ounce.
13.
14. Gold Standard Embrace Could Boost Gold’s Stocks, Ease Bank Runs
If only one major currency is backed by gold, enough of the metal
could theoretically be acquired to increase its stocks. In China’s
case, the government could always increase the ratio of yuan per
ounce of gold to ensure that it does not trigger a run on the bank.
China would still be able to manage its money supply to a great
degree, while the global market would know that, unlike any other
currency on Earth, the yuan is backed by a precious metal.
16. Why Would China Consider A Gold Standard? To Preserve The Yuan
If China were to switch to a gold standard, one of its motivations
would be to assure the world that its currency is tied to something
globally recognised as a storer of value.
China is seeking to diversify its economy by encouraging inflows
of foreign capital; one way to entice capital in-flows would be
to back its currency with something such as gold. The ratio, and
mechanism of exchange from the yuan to gold, might have to be
altered to account for the amount of gold held by China.
19. Chinese Stock Market Crash Could Channel Investments To Gold
Chinese investors have been moving away from real estate into
the stock market at a record pace. If the Chinese stock market falls
back as it did in 2007, it could move the public to another asset
class such as gold.
China did see a surge in the buying of gold in the years after the
2007 collapse. Chinese imports of gold from Hong Kong rose to
523.6 metric tonnes a year at the peak in 2012, from 75.5 in 2008.
Any swoon in Chinese equity markets makes gold flows worth
watching.
20.
21. Bloomberg Intelligence offers valuable industry and company data,
interactive charting and written analysis with government and credit
insights from a team of independent experts, giving trading and
investment professionals deep insight into where crucial industries
stand today and where they may be heading next.
