The document discusses why alcohols like ethanol and methanol will replace gasoline and diesel as future fuels. It outlines some of the key issues with gasoline such as supply constraints and health and environmental impacts. It then summarizes some alternative fuel options like electric cars, natural gas, and biofuels. Ethanol from corn is discussed but has limitations due to feedstock constraints. Cellulosic ethanol and methanol produced from various waste sources are presented as promising alternatives. The document argues that alcohols can provide engine efficiencies similar to diesel engines without the same emissions issues. It proposes a "GEM" concept of blending gasoline, ethanol and methanol to allow existing vehicles to use higher methanol blends right away while cellulos
Why alcohols will replace gasoline and diesel fuel to be the fuels of the future?
1. Why alcohols will replace gasoline
and diesel
to be the fuels of the future?
Robert Falco, PhD
Professor of Mechanical Engineering
Director of the Institute for Energy Resourcefulness
President, Solar Clean Fuels, LLC
2. Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it.
Winston Churchill
3. Why we want to get off gasoline and diesel
Supply
Health
Environment
Economy
Security
Overview of the alternatives
1. Electric cars
2. Cost of CNG/LNG from natural gas
3. Ethanol Economy
4. Methanol Economy
Future Directions
9. Rapid Societal Death
Our commerce, and American life as
we know it,
would stop on the dime,
if OPEC wanted it to.
10. Gasoline additives
and our health
During WWI, it was discovered that you
can add a chemical called tetraethyl lead to
gasoline and significantly improve its octane rating.
Low level exposure to children:
Lowered IQ, reading and learning disabilities, impaired hearing,
hyperactivity, impaired growth.
Acute exposure in adults:
Blindness, brain damage, kidney disease, cancers, death
Prohibited because it destroyed catalytic converters!
11. MTBE replaced lead in so called
Reformulated Gasoline (RFG)
MTBE has been used in U.S. gasoline at low levels since
1979 to replace TEL to increase its octane rating and
help prevent engine knocking.
It was used in combination with aromatics like benzene
and toluene.
Gasoline can contain as much as 10 percent to 15
percent MTBE.
Gasoline may contain up to 50% aromatics
The main problem with MTBE is that it is thought to be
carcinogenic and it mixes easily with water.
12. Benzene: It gets to you in more than
the fumes you breath when you fill up
We all know about the filler cap regulations,
but,
the benzene emissions that result from the catalytic
converter acting on the emissions is
2 orders of magnitude
worse when the car is either cold or is accelerating.
At the minimum turn your head away from the pump.
13. Benzine risk for Leukemia
WHO: 1 part in a million is considered acceptable.
In 2001 EPA estimated that we had 10 X this limit in
the US.
2005 Swiss study calculated that 100x is emitted from
the tailpipe of an accelerating vehicle.
14. What did we replace the
MTBE with - Ethanol
Ethanol is OK health wise
Ethanol made from corn has many problems
Ethanol can be made from other sources
Other alcohols can supplement it. Methanol.
BIGGEST problem: vehicles are designed with
gasoline as the standard, making alcohols poor
substitutes
15. We must get rid of legacy
practices and procedures
In moving forward sensibly we must have a plan for
the future
In moving forward we can wean ourselves from oil
gently, but with the full intent to wean ourselves
For all of the reasons given, we must make gasoline
and diesel less and less of the fuel mix we use.
So in our transition we must focus on oil in the
future as an “additive”, NOT as the standard we are
modifying.
16. Outline
Why we want to get of gasoline and diesel
Health
Environment
Economy
Security
Supply
Overview of the alternatives
1. Electric cars
2. Cost of CNG/LNG from natural gas
3. Ethanol Economy
4. Methanol Economy
Future Directions
17. Electric Cars – Excessive costs –
High CO2 – limited range
WTW GHG worse than gasoline ---- coal
Nuclear not happening in the next few decades
Natural gas burned to make electricity vs. used directly or
converted to a liquid (methanol/ethanol)
60% loss at power plant + 7-10% in transmission
Battery costs
Range
Durability
Safety
Every decade a 10% improvement is made in batteries
18. Fuel cells
PEM -- very high costs, but can work with
methanol
DMFC – even higher costs – methanol fuel
SOFC – lowest costs – lowest reliability – can use
methanol
Bottom line:
2 decades for SOFC,
and discovery for the PEM and DMFC
21. Storage tanks in a CNG
automobile
$7,500 - $12,000 additional costs
22. 24 / 7 CNG self serve pump
for cars on the UCLA campus
$300,000
to
$500,000
per dispenser
to
install
23. Costs to US to replace
gasoline with CHG/LNG
It cost about 100x as much to convert to CNG/LNG
as it does to make a Flex Fueled car that can use any
combination of gasoline, ethanol and/or methanol.
Our gross national debt is ~ $14 T, our gross
national product is ~ $14T, CNC/LNG would cost
~$3T, or, 21.5% of GNP
The interstate Hwy system cost 1.4% of GNP in 1958
Peak WWII spending was 44% of our GNP
CNG/LNG is NOT a societal solution
25. Drop-in liquid fuels are the
way to go
If drop-in is not feasible, then liquid fuels that
need a minimal modification
GM has produced four million of the eleven
million flexfuel cars now on American roads.
GM's Vice Chairman Tom Stephens says it adds
"as much as $70 to the production cost" of
a car to make it a flexfuel car.
Thursday May 26, 2011
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 5/30/12
26. Why not Alcohol?
Henry Ford made the Model T both alcohol and gasoline
compatible for 2 decades.
Until (Rockefeller supported) Prohibition
27. Ethanol Economy
Strong proponents Water usage
Corn States
Brazilian sugarcane industry Fertilizers
Equatorial belt countries
Biomass limit
Sources:
Wheel to well CO2
Sugarcane and starch (corn)
Cellulose Overall economy
Natural gas Feedstock is 80%
Performance Tail pipe emissions
ICE and Diesel Toxicity and Flammability
Fuel Cells Distribution
The Biomass limit means that ethanol made from crops can only
meet 20-30% of our needs
29. Proof of the pudding ICEs can
run better on alcohols
Saab Biopower line
By reprogramming the on-board computer
By using a turbocharger to increase the CR of the
engine
By changing the fuel system components to handle
alcohols
Saab increased the HP of their 2liter, 150HP engine,
to 180HP
At the same time they increased the torque by
40Nm
34. A big step further – E100
Saab E100
Using 100% ethanol, and optimizing the engine for it,
Saab took a 2 liter 150 HP engine and had it output
300 HP.
EPA showed that a VW TDI diesel engine could run
more efficiently on 100% methanol or 100% ethanol.
Could manufacture engines more cheaply than diesels
MIT pointed out that a 15 liter engine could be
replaced with a 7 liter engine.
35. Ethanol can give engines „diesel engine‟ efficiencies
without the need for high pressure injection systems and
either DPF or Urea NOx reducing exhaust treatment.
Diesel Spark ignited E100
We can replace diesel engines with equally efficient alcohol run spark ignition
engines, and not need the particulates, NOx or bio-diesel.
36. At E30 the mileage in an optimized
engine is better than with gasoline alone
“Combined with an optimized
conventional drivetrain, the efficiency
gain shown in the previous slide for
E30 should yield an estimated 10% -
12% gain in fuel economy. Thus it
more than compensates for the
approximately 8% loss in fuel energy
density of E30 vs. straight gasoline.”
EPA
39. Progression of E85 fuel
economy in US cars
Because ethanol contains less energy than gasoline,
fuel economy is reduced for most 2002 and earlier
American FFVs by about 30%.
Most after 2003 lose only 15-17% or less.
Some of he newest American vehicles achieve only a
5-15% loss.
40. Are we being manipulated by
business directed engineering?
In one test, a Chevy Tahoe flex-fuel vehicle averaged 18 MPG [U.S. gallons]
for gasoline and 13 MPG for E85, or 28% fewer MPG than gasoline.
In another test, however, a fleet of Ford Tauruses averaged only about 6%
fewer miles per gallon in the ethanol-based vehicles as compared to
traditional, gas-powered Tauruses.
The Honda Civic FFV, in Brazil, when running on E100, generates 140HP at
6,200 rpm and 174 Nm of torque at 4,300 rpm. Fill it with an E22 mix and
those numbers only drop to 138 HP and 172 Nm (this torque peak arrives at
5,000 rpm).
With the Honda Fit FFV, in Brazil, on E100, it makes 83 HP at 5,700 rpm
and 119Nm of torque at 2,800 rpm. On E22, it drops to 80 HP and 116 Nm at
identical engine speeds.
The aforementioned facts leads some to believe that the FFV engine is more
of an infant technology rather than fully mature.
Others, believe we are being manipulated!
42. Non-Corn Ethanol
Sugarcane
The entire equatorial belt + others (i.e., Hawaii etc.)
Sugar beet – temperate zone climates
The Celanese process: ethanol from natural gas
Cellulosic ethanol
Joule process: ethanol from waste water, CO2 and sunlight
1 Coskata, Dupont Danisco, Fulcrum Bio -- corn cobs ,
switchgrass
2 Mascoma, Range Fuels, Dyadic – enzymes – wood, etc.
3 POET, Iogen, Abengoa – wheat straw, corn cobs
Research Institute of Innovative Technology and Honda
43. The Methanol Economy
Broad range of sources: Higher octane
Methane, bio-methane,
organic wastes Burns cooler
Useable in both Spark Higher Flash point
Ignition Engines and
Diesels Burns cleaner
Emissions
Can be mixed with ethanol
and gasoline Fuel for furnaces, turbines
Fuel for fuel cells.
The cheapest liquid fuel, with the largest
number of non-food sources
44. EPA Brake Thermal Efficiency
Comparison
same engine run in its native
engine fueled on 100% methanol
diesel mode (1.9L VW TDI
in spark ignition mode
diesel)
Typical 1.9L gasoline engine has 22-25% BTE
45. What Can This Mean for
Fleet Economics?
Reduce engine system costs (engine plus exhaust treatment)
by $10,000 - $15,000 – MIT study.
The engines cost less (diesels are more expensive)
No need for either the Diesel Particulate Filter or the Urea Filter
(NOx)
Reduced maintenance
Fuel costs less
Better mileage – up to 5% better fuel economy
The Saab 9-5 gets 15% better fuel economy with a turbocharger
46. Even Ethanol/Gasoline mixtures as low as
E30 can give engine efficiencies close to that
of a diesel.
EPA results
We can replace diesel engines
with equally efficient alcohol run spark ignition engines,
and not need the particulates, NOx or bio-diesel.
47. • Enables operation with power
densities up to three times that
which can be provided by diesel engines .
This makes possible
highly downsized
alcohol engines (e.g. a
15 liter diesel engine
could potentially be
replaced by an SI engine
with a displacement of 7
liters or less).
49. WTW GHG Emissions of
methanol production
Gasoline WTW GHG
Sweden,
Germany
50. Safety
GASOLINE
METHANOL
• In the California test (15 years), with over 200 million miles of methanol
driving, there was not a single case of accidental methanol poisoning.
• For M100 a 90% reduction in fuel related automotive fires is projected.
P. A. Machiele, Summary Of The Fire Safety Impacts of Methanol
as a Transportation Fuel, SAE International paper 901113
51. Bio-Methanol Processes
Schwarze Pumpe – 100,000 tons from sewage
sludge/industrial wastes
BioMCN – methanol from glycerin
Haldor-Topsoe black liquor; Sweden, Michigan
Landfill gas – methanol from biogas - AD
Human wastes – methanol from biogas –AD
From wood waste – pyrolysis
52. A GEM of an idea.
To enable us to move to high %
methanol use before cellulosic
ethanol comes along
53. The GEM Idea
Find the blend of Gasoline, Ethanol and Methanol that:
The 11,000,000 existing US FFVs can use now
Make the octane rating exactly the same across a range of GEM
mixtures
The volumetric energy content constant across the blends
The latent heat constant across the blends
Thus the driver and the sensors do NOT know anything has
changed,
but
INSTANTY, 11 million vehicles can use up to 50% methanol.
54. GEM (gasoline, ethanol, methanol) mixtures.
How to use current cars to move to methanol
NOW!
Blends at any position along the x-axis will give the same performance; going
from 55% methanol and 45% gasoline (0% ethanol) to 85% ethanol and 15% ethanol.
56. Alcohol Cars E20-E100
Honda in Brazil – introduced in 2006
With its flexible-fuel system, Honda believes
that it has essentially conquered all the
known drawbacks of using ethanol:
• problems with cold starts
• variations in fuel economy
• and emissions are all addressed with the
new system.
Designed to operate on fuel grades ranging
from E20 all the way up to E100.
The result, according to Honda, is that its
FFVs will have performance and fuel
economy ratios that nearly equal those of
their gasoline-only engines.
57. An adjustable blend fuel
pump in South Dakota
Walmart
is talking
about adding
9000 more
We need dispensers
that can dispense
what you need
on demand.
Just like this one.
There are 2900 E85 filling stations in the US
58. Costs of equivalent amount of energy.
Methanol is cheaper
than either gasoline or ethanol
Gasoline
= $3.90
Ethanol = $3.44*1.25
= $4.30
Methanol (estimate)
= $3.00
59. Furthermore, contract pricing is
substantially less than market prices.
California methanol costs:
The price of methanol today is $1.30 gal
61. Outline
Why we want to get of gasoline and diesel
Health
Environment
Economy
Security
Supply
Overview of the alternatives
1. Electric cars
2. Cost of CNG/LNG from natural gas
3. Ethanol Economy
4. Methanol Economy
Future Directions
62. Future Trends
Alcohol ICE Engines
Ethanol or Methanol engines with high efficiency (>40% peak) Lends itself
to exhaust thermal energy recovery in the form of chemical and
mechanical energy.
Combined Alcohol + heat recovery system approach fuel cell
efficiencies (>55% peak) at a significantly lower cost.
Hybrids with tiny alcohol ICE
Methanol reforming hydrogen for PEM fuel cells
Anaerobic digestion of organic wastes alcohols
Pyrolysis of organic wastes alcohols
Direct enzyme solar transformation to ethanol - Joule
Solar „dry reforming‟ of methane to methanol
Direct methanol fuel cells
63. Hybrid-ethanol or methanol vehicle can run
at maximum efficiency ALL the time.
Hydraulic
US EPA Study Hybrid
Operating Line
Methanol would create a 43% efficiency range for the hydrid operation
64. Biomass to Methanol
Pyrolysis is a thermochemical
decomposition of organic material at
elevated
temperatures
without the
participation
of oxygen.
65. COWS------ > BIOGAS----- > GASIFIER -- > METHANOL---- > VEHICLES
Landfill
NET EFFICIENCY = .70*.85 = 59.5%
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 65 5/30/12
67. CH4 + CO2 2H2 +2CO; CH3OH ΔH =-90.6kJmol
Maximum theoretical efficiency = 1.3*.85 = 1.10%
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 67 5/30/12
68. Main Takeaway
Do not be hung up with our problems with corn ethanol –
alcohols are in your future: both ethanol and methanol
from non-food origins.
These will be cheaper, not vie for land or water or fertilizer
Alcohols are the ONLY replacement for oil in Internal
Combustion Engines.
Alcohols are the best fuel for fuel cells
69. Do we need
to bring out
the cavalry
to move this
forward?
71. What We Must Do Now
Encourage auto companies to come clean about fuel capabilities of
current cars, both Flex Fueled and gasoline.
Marshall our national desire to be independent of the „noose‟
around our necks that gasoline dependence is.
Think about what you can do to get this on the national political stage.
Prepare for alcohols by:
1) Having the auto companies make vehicles that can use them.
2) Telling your representatives that you see them as a solution
3) Tell your local government to investigate them.
If we get no response ask congress to pass the „fuel neutral‟ “Open
Fuels Standard Act”.
Remember ethyl lead! You won‟t miss your daily dose of benzene!
72. Conclusions
We can continuously wind down our use of oil, while at the same time
improving performance, reducing pollution and costs.
Mixed alcohols are our future fuel for both ICE and Fuel Cells.
They are in our system already, and their use can be increased rapidly.
They will be made from corn and natural gas first
Then they will be made from organic wastes, and algae, and processed
cleanly using solar, nuclear and wind energy.
We will be healthier, greener, and self sufficient.
We will ultimately run very efficient cars, with tiny engines and/or
methanol fuel cells that are CO2 neutral and with have very low
emissions.
Goldman Saks 22 April 09 8.3% 2009 and 10.9% 20101.32 billion vs 300,000,000 = 4.3x Chapter 1. The long and short of supply and demand - DemandThe demand picture has changed greatly in the last few years. The curve shows the US demand versus that of China. Focusing on the US growth we can see it has been essentially linear (light blue curve fit) over a century. This includes the great depression and two world wars, so we can project it over the next 20 years with confidence.The rapid growth of China clearly shows that we can’t ignore it. It is growing non-linearly, and its rate cant be accurately predicted based on its past history. Thus, we conservatively assume linear growth at 7%.(It should be noted that China grew at 12% last year and is predicted to grow at 8.5% this year. China has already surpassed the US in total carbon usage, and will be using 2 times our consumption in the next fourteen years (at the projected growth rate of 7%). Usage = (1.05)^14 = 1.98 (2 times). Five percent is the difference in China vs the US growth rate. In 20 years (the period this presentation focuses on) China will be using 2.65 times the energy we use.INDIA’s increasing at 5-7%/year ( CHINA 5-7%/year)Has a ten year plan of 10% growth rateSo world’s economy is facing two simultaneous challenges: The end of cheap and easy oil and the explosive demand for fuel in developing countries.Demand for carbon has already exceeded that of the US.
Lower octane grades of gasoline could be made usable by adding this chemical. This led to the widespread use of "ethyl" or "leaded" gasoline.