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Pakistan Five Year Development PlansSince 1955 to 2010An Overview
Introduction
Almost all five-year plans prepared during political or military regimes were shelved in the country’s history after regime change and none of them succeeded in getting the desired results.
Pakistan has a semi-industrialized economy, which mainly encompasses textiles, chemicals, food processing, agriculture and other industries.
The economy has suffered in the past from decades of internal political
disputes, a fast growing population and ongoing confrontation with
neighboring India.
Pakistan's average economic growth rate since independence has been higher than the average growth rate of the world economy during the period.
Average annual real GDP growth rates were 6.8% in the 1960s, 4.8% in the 1970s, and 6.5% in the 1980s. Average annual growth fell to 4.6% in the 1990s with significantly lower growth in the second half of that decade.
Introduction
Two wars with India, in Second Kashmir War 1965 and Bangladesh Liberation War 1971 and separation of Bangladesh adversely affected economic growth. In particular, the latter war brought the economy close to recession, although economic output rebounded sharply until the nationalizations of the mid-1970s.
Pakistan is aggressively cutting tariffs and assisting exports by improving ports, roads, electricity supplies and irrigation projects. Islamabad has doubled development spending from about 2% of GDP in the 1990s to 4% in 2003, a necessary step towards reversing the broad underdevelopment of its social sector.
First Five Year Plan (1955-1960) Highlights
Targets
Emphasis mainly on achieving high national income.
The First Plan was implemented within certain obvious handicaps and limitations and its release was delayed by two Years.
In practice, this plan was not implemented, however, mainly because political instability led to a neglect of economic policy, but government, Deputy Chairman Planning Board (Commission) Said Hassan announces the plan in 1957.
The development expenditures were regarded as the foundation for rapid progress in the future and plans explicitly affirmed that some sectors of the economy must be expanded much more rapidly than others in order to secure maximum gains.
The size of the First Plan initially was Rs. 11.5 billion which was revised and decreased to 10.8 billion out of which Rs. 750 million for the public sector and Rs. 3.3 billion for the private sector was allocated. Of the total plan amount of Rs. 6.6 billion from the internal sources and R.s 4.2 billion was to be achieve from the foreign sources in the form of loans and aid.
First Five Year Plan (1955-1960) Highlights
Achievements/Failure
Pakistan's Economic Growth and Development Plans Over the Decades
1.
2.
3.
4. Introduction
Almost all five-year plans prepared during political or military regimes were
shelved in the country’s history after regime change and none of them
succeeded in getting the desired results.
Pakistan has a semi-industrialized economy, which mainly encompasses
textiles, chemicals, food processing, agriculture and other industries.
The economy has suffered in the past from decades of internal political
disputes, a fast growing population and ongoing confrontation with
neighboring India.
Pakistan's average economic growth rate since independence has been higher
than the average growth rate of the world economy during the period.
Average annual real GDP growth rates were 6.8% in the 1960s, 4.8% in the
1970s, and 6.5% in the 1980s. Average annual growth fell to 4.6% in the 1990s
with significantly lower growth in the second half of that decade.
5. Introduction
Two wars with India, in Second Kashmir War 1965 and Bangladesh Liberation
War 1971 and separation of Bangladesh adversely affected economic growth. In
particular, the latter war brought the economy close to recession, although
economic output rebounded sharply until the nationalizations of the mid1970s.
Pakistan is aggressively cutting tariffs and assisting exports by improving
ports, roads, electricity supplies and irrigation projects. Islamabad has doubled
development spending from about 2% of GDP in the 1990s to 4% in 2003, a
necessary step towards reversing the broad underdevelopment of its social
sector.
6. There are total 8 Development plans have been presented in the
history of Pakistan which are listed below:
1- First Five Year Plan (1955-60)-An Erratic Beginning to planned development.
2. Second Five Year Plan (1960-65)- An Experiment In ‘Functional Inequality’
3. Third Five year Plan (1965-70)- A Prisoner of Extraordinary Events
4. Fourth Five year Plan (1970-75)- A non-starter from the beginning
5. Fifth Five Year Plan (1978-83)-A Return of the Medium Term Planning
6. Sixth Five year Plan (1983-88)- Development of the people, By the people, For the
people
7. Seventh Five Year Plan (1988-93)-Precursor of a long Term vision
8. Eighth Five year Plan (1993-98)- An exercise in better macro- economic
Management.
7. First Five Year Plan (1955-1960) Highlights
Targets
Emphasis mainly on achieving high national income.
The First Plan was implemented within certain obvious handicaps and limitations and its
release was delayed by two Years.
In practice, this plan was not implemented, however, mainly because political instability
led to a neglect of economic policy, but government, Deputy Chairman Planning Board
(Commission) Said Hassan announces the plan in 1957.
The development expenditures were regarded as the foundation for rapid progress in
the future and plans explicitly affirmed that some sectors of the economy must be
expanded much more rapidly than others in order to secure maximum gains.
The size of the First Plan initially was Rs. 11.5 billion which was revised and decreased to
10.8 billion out of which Rs. 750 million for the public sector and Rs. 3.3 billion for the
private sector was allocated. Of the total plan amount of Rs. 6.6 billion from the internal
sources and R.s 4.2 billion was to be achieve from the foreign sources in the form of loans
and aid.
8. First Five Year Plan (1955-1960) Highlights
Achievements/Failure
The GNP recoded a growth of 13% instead of 15% as targeted in the Plan.
Industry together with fuels and minerals received another 31% of the total resources
which exceeds the target of 28% provided in the Plan.
9. Second Five Year Plan (1960-1965) Highlights
Targets
The 2nd five year plan was approved by the Economic Council of the
Pakistan on June 21, 1960.
Government of
The 2nd plan aims at increasing national income by 20 %. In view of
the anticipated
increase in population of about 9%, this will mean an increase of about 10% in per capita
income. The plan assumes the rate of growth of population as 1.6% at the end of the 1st
plan and 1.8% at the end
of the 2nd plan.
Three dominant strains run through the plan.
1.
The stubborn problem of agriculture production- low productivity and inability of the
country to feed itself. Foreign exchange expenditure on food imports has averaged Rs.
470 million a year during the 1st plan period. An over all increase of 14 per cent in
agricultural output is projected.
1.
No industries are reserved for the public sector; public investments is provided only in
those activities that are ordinarily developed with private capital. Private investments
will not be forthcoming. Both indigenous and foreign capital will receive positive
encouragement.
10. Second Five Year Plan (1960-1965) Highlights
3. Education at all levels is to be expanded and advanced as fast as the required institution
and personnel san be provided.
The revised total size of the second Plan was fixed at Rs. 2.3 billion in April, 1961.
As regards sector distribution, the size of the private sector expenditure was fixed at Rs.
12.4 billion, while public sector was allocated Rs. 6.8 billion and the newly introduced
semi-public sector consisting of autonomous corporations was allocated the remaining
sum of Rs. 3.8 billion.
11. Second Five Year Plan (1960-1965) Highlights
Achievements/Failure
During 1965-66 there is increase in the production of tea, salt, cotton cloth and yarn,
board, caustic soda, cement and cycle rubber tires and tubes. The increase in the
quantum index of manufacturing industries from 100 in 1959-60 to 201.7 in 1964-65.
Growth in 68-69 was 7.4% that was previously 7.8%. And in 49-50 the share go
agriculture was standing 60% which came down to 46% in 68-69.
The strategy paid off very well as the actual growth rate surpassed the projected growth
rate. The GNP registered a growth of 30% over the plan period compared to 24%
proposed in the plan and per capita income grew 15% instead of 12% projected in the
plan. The large scale industrial production exhibited nearly 161% increases in production
compared to only 60% increase proposed in the Plan. The share of the manufacturing
industry in GNP as a whole rose from 9.3% in 1960 to 11.5% in 1965.
12. Third Five Year Plan (1965-1970) Highlights
Targets
The Third Plan was approved by National Economic Council in May 1965 and it was
revised in 1966 due to following two reasons:
a. Pakistan had to fight battle with India.
b. The seasonal conditions became worst for agriculture sector which affected
production.
An amount of Rs.52000 million was allocated for the plan out of which Rs.30,000 million
for the public sector and Rs.20,000 million for the private sector were allocated. 66
percent of the total plan size was to invest from the local sources and remaining 32
percent through the external sources.
In this Plan there was a great visible investment shift from consumer goods to capital
goods industry
13. Third Five Year Plan (1965-1970) Highlights
Achievements/Failure
Performance in the industrial sector was also far from satisfactory particularly in the
large-scale industrial sector. The large-scale industrial sector exhibited a growth rate of
10% as against 13% targeted in the Plan. The industrial sector as a whole expanded at an
annual growth rate of 7.8% instead of 10% targeted in the Plan.
The small-scale industry just performed well.
During 1967-68, substantial gains were also recorded by cotton yarn and cloth fertilizes
and chemicals, writing and printing paper etc. The growth rate of large scale industrial
decline from 13.9% in 1969-70 to 2.8 in 1970-71 and showed a negative growth rate of 5.6
percent in 1971-72.the negative growth in this year was due to the war with India and
separation from the Bangladesh where exist the big industry of jute.
14. Fourth Five year Plan (1970-75) Highlights
Targets
When the government of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto came to power in 1971, planning was
virtually bypassed. The Fourth Five-Year Plan (1970-75) was abandoned as East Pakistan
became independent Bangladesh. Under Bhutto, only annual plans were prepared, and
they were largely ignored.
The revised total size of the second Plan was fixed at Rs. 75 billion, an increase in 44%
over the Third Plan size. The increase 6.5% annual growth rate as compared to 5.5%
targeted in the Plan.
The share of the industrial sector that had 10% growth rate in the last Plan was drastically
slashed from 26% in the Third Plan to 10.2% in the Fourth.
15. Fourth Five year Plan (1970-75) Highlights
Achievements/Failure
Industrial sector had all along been leading sector in terms of sustain growth. Value
added fell by 6.8% during 1971-72 compared to depress based of 1970-71 when the growth
was only 1.2%.Steady growth in 1973-74. Different factor, like war with India and tight
credit polices and East Pakistan crisis growth decline 6.8% in 1971-72.
Steady improvement or recovery in 1972-73. Manufacturing sector slow-down during
1974-75 because low level of investment and shortage of raw material. Textile has heavy
weight in total industrial production. 1974-75 there was also difficult when value added
project to grow by 10% in the LSM sector recorded negative growth of 1.7%. in 1976-77
During this time manufacturing sector continue to remain under pressure due to various
national and international factors.
The volume of national product had been increased and the symptoms of construction
were being reflected from the basic structure of the economy.
It was imperative that the development efforts were concentrated on the higher income
group and the majority was deliberately neglected. The social needs like housing, health,
education etc were not paid due attention in planning.
16. Fifth Five Year Plan (1978-83) Highlights
Targets
The economic growth in Pakistan became stagnate due to the application of Annual
Planning in Pakistan by Peoples Party Government during the period of 1970-78
therefore, the Marshall Law Government drafted the Fifth Five Year Plan in 1977 and it
was implemented in very difficult and unfavorable condition because:
Commodity Production sector had turned into completely a stagnant sector.
Imports increased fast.
Foreign exchange reserves were decreasing very fast.
The total size of the Plan was targeted at Rs. 210 billion out of which Rs. 148.2 billion were
proposed to be spent in the public sector and Rs. 62 billion were proposed for the private
sector.
No major new industrial projects was planned for the public sector however it was
emphasized the completion of the under construction Pakistan steel mills and fertilizers
and cement factories.
Private sector was expected to pay a vital role in the development of few industries which
is good for the well-being of the country.
17. Fifth Five Year Plan (1978-83) Highlights
Achievements/Failure
As a whole, the growth rate projected for the industrial sector was almost fulfilled
(growth rate was 9.7% as compared to 10% targeted in the Plan).
In July 1978, the interest rate on loans for fixed investment in industry and agriculture
was reduced from 12.5% to 11%.
The Zia government accorded more importance to planning. Fifth plan was an attempt to
stabilize the economy and improve the standard of living of the poorest segment of the
population.
Nevertheless, some of the plan's goals were attained.
Many of the controls on industry were liberalized or abolished, the balance of payments
deficit was kept under control, and Pakistan became self-sufficient in all basic foodstuffs
with the exception of edible oils.
Yet the plan failed to stimulate substantial private industrial investment and to raise
significantly the expenditure on rural infrastructure development.
18. Sixth Five year Plan (1983-88) Highlights
Targets
The approval was given to this plan by the National Economic Council at the proper time,
it was implemented also at the right time.
Represented a significant shift toward the private sector.
Designed to tackle some of the major problems of the economy: low investment and
savings ratios; low agricultural productivity; heavy reliance on imported energy; and low
spending on health and education.
The total size of the Plan was fixed at Rs. 495 billion which was more than twice the size
of the fifth Plan. Out of which Rs. 295 billion and Rs. 200 billion were allocated to public
and private sector respectively.
The share of the private investment in industrial development was to go up from 53.6% in
1982/83 to 91% in 1987/88 and in total investment from 32.9% to 44% during the same
period.
The share of the public sector industries in public sector development program was
therefore expected to decline from 15.6% to 5.1% as compared to forth Plan.
19. Sixth Five year Plan (1983-88) Highlights
Achievements/Failure
The economy grew at the targeted average of 6.5 % during the plan period and would
have exceeded the target if it had not been for severe droughts in 1986 and 1987.
The industrial sector as a whole exhibited a growth rate of 7.7% per annum against the
Plan targeted of 9.3% per annum.
In 1984- 1985 manufacturing growth was about 8.6% after a slow down last fiscal year
which was 8.1%.During 1985-86, GDP for manufacturing output has been 19.9%. During
this year the manufacturing is expected to grow by 8.2% as compared to 8.6% of previous
year. The manufacturing output has grown by 7.4% in 1986-87 as compared to 7.8% in
1985-86. This year 1987-88 show that the output has grown by 7.6%.The rate of growth in
large-scale industries during 1987-88 was 7.4%.
20. Seventh Five Year Plan (1988-93) Highlights
Targets
The Seventh Five Year Plan was prepared by semi-political government of Muhammad Khan Junaejo
which culminated in to the political government of Mrs. Benazir Bhutto, therefore, the Seventh Five
Year Plan was the First Medium Term Plan after the Third Five Year Plan implemented in a political
environment.
Provided for total public-sector spending of Rs350 billion. Of this total, 36.5 % was designated for
energy, 18 % for transportation and communications, 9 % for water, 8 % for physical infrastructure
and housing, 7 % for education, 5 % for industry and minerals, 4 % for health, and 11 % for other
sectors.
Total planned private investment was Rs 292 billion, and the private-to- public ratio of investment
was expected to rise from 42:58 in FY 1988 to 48:52 in FY 1993.
It was also intended that public-sector
corporations finance most of their own investment
programs through profits and borrowing.
Achievements/Failure
The plan gave much greater emphasis than before to private investment in all sectors of the economy.
The share of industry decreased from 5.1% in the sixth Plan to 2.0% in the seventh sector Plan.
21. Eighth Five year Plan (1993-98) Highlights
Targets
The Planning Commission of Pakistan appointed a committee to make strategy for
the planning development during the period of 1993-98 which recommended the
following for the achievement of social welfare.
1.
The national income, keeping the 20 years Perspective Plan in view, should increased by
double of present by the end of 2000.
2.
3.
4.
Increase in the GNP by 8.1 %.
Reduction in the population growth to the extent of 2.6 % till 2000.
Maximum utilization of the available investment resources through
technological changes.
Increase in the share of industry to the GNP more than share of agriculture.
Correlating industrial and agriculture development.
Expanding tax structure to reduce budget deficit gradually.
Implementation of agriculture taxation to make tax structure wide, efficient &
justice.
22. Eighth Five year Plan (1993-98) Highlights
The total size of the Plan was fixed at Rs. 1700.5 billion. The size of public sector
investment is estimated at Rs. 752.1 billion while private expenditure is placed at Rs.
984.4 billion. Overall GDP growth rate increases from 4% in 1993/94 to 7% in 1997/98.
The target set for improvement of industrial sector was to achieve 9.4%
Achievements/Failure
During 1993-94 policies of privatization, deregulation and market friendly environment
were reinforced.
A new concept of public-private partnership was also introduced to enable private sector
to play a key role in social sector growth.
Manufacturing during 1995-1996 grew 4.8%. That was previously 2.9% in 1994-1995.
The large scale manufacturing grew by 3.13% during 95-96. . In 1996-97 small scale
manufacturing maintained its growth. But large scale declining by 1.43% in value added.
And over all growth of manufacturing sector was 1.78% which was previously 4.4%.
23. MTDF (2005-2010)
The Medium Term Development Framework (2005-10) relied on upgrading physical
infrastructure for accelerating output growth.
Specific spheres were identified where support to private sector could be extended and
finally social sector policies were envisaged for timely achievement of millennium
development goals.
It further states that never has there been a more pressing need in Pakistan’s history to
search for a new model; however, at the outset it should be said that if there has to be a
common vision on growth, it should by all means take account of the damages caused by
security and governance issues currently facing the country.
24.
25. Conclusion
Except 2nd and 6th 5 year development program all were considered as a failure
in terms of achievements.
However 2nd and 6th 5 year plans had achieved somewhat as per set targets and
economic development were also observed.
There is a need to look at the economic strategies society where foremost
objective is to provide opportunities for learning, increase potential of
communities by linking them in networks and ensure fair competition in trade
and investment. Malaysia’s New Economic Model launched in 2010 aims
towards a coherent ‘big push’ to boost transformation and growth through
developing quality workforce, competitive domestic economy and transparent
markets.