Babelfish Articles July-Aug 2013 18-8-13

Articles
July 2013 - August 2013

Brian Crotty
Babelfish.Brazil@gmail.com

Babelfish Articles July 2013 - August 2013 17-8-13

Page 1

Summary
Facebook Takes On TV-Like Messaging In Prime Time ................................................................................................................................................................. 4
P&G ROI ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
P&G focuses on ROI................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Is It Really Time for Your Brand To Be “RTB”–Real Time Bidding? ............................................................................................................................................ 8
Even Creatives Are Using Real-Time Data ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
'All Models Are Wrong, but Some Are Useful' ..................................................................................................................................................................................11
O futuro da TV chegou e sem hora marcada ...................................................................................................................................................................................12
The Rise of Programmatic Buying: Winners & Losers ................................................................................................................................................................... 15
CEOs suspicious of creativity ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
Why ROI Is Often Wrong For Measuring Marketing Impact ........................................................................................................................................................ 17
Times Have Changed - and so Should Your Approach to Segmentation ................................................................................................................................ 19
Programmatic Buying Rises, But Display Ads Decline ................................................................................................................................................................. 20
Facebook's Video Audience Bigger Than TV, According to Nielsen ..........................................................................................................................................21
The Facebook Advertising Ecosystem Explained ...........................................................................................................................................................................22
Media Usage On Rise Due To Multitasking .................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Five trends marketers can't ignore ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Infographic: Data-Driven Marketing Is Heating Up ........................................................................................................................................................................32
The Truth About Tracking Consumers Across Devices .............................................................................................................................................................. 34
Which is Better for Agency Talent -- Giant Holding Companies or Independent Shops? ................................................................................................. 36
From analog to digital: How to transform the business model .................................................................................................................................................. 38
Understanding emotions key to marketing success .................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Data-Driven Marketing Efforts Increase ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Findings Validate That Tweets Can Influence Tune-in Rates, While TV Programming Drives Twitter Activity ............................................................ 46
US TV lags in programmatic buying .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 47
Innovation Isn't an Idea Problem ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 48
Eyes Wide Shut: The Pitfalls Of Programmatic Blindness .......................................................................................................................................................... 49
Agencies Quietly Begin Using Programmatic Platform To Buy TV, Billions Already Served............................................................................................... 51
Across Devices/PlAtforms .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 55
Facebook says it wants to provide a simpler online shopping experience.............................................................................................................................59
Social Media in the Boardroom ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................59
Mobile Takes The Digital Lead As Online Surpasses TV............................................................................................................................................................. 61
Everything you think about weight loss is wrong ......................................................................................................................................................................... 62
Your Customers Don’t Care About “Touchpoints”; They Care about the Journey .............................................................................................................. 67
Facebook Mobile numbers ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 69
Brasil precisa repensar modelo de remuneração das agências, diz Buono........................................................................................................................... 70
Content, Context Or Audience? .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 71
A Man Snaps Into A QR Code...And Someone Actually Tells Him A Good Story .................................................................................................................72
The 25 things happy people do differently..................................................................................................................................................................................... 73
User Interface Is More Important Than You Ever Thought It Was ........................................................................................................................................... 74
ZenithOptimedia Cuts Data Deal To Improve TV Targeting .......................................................................................................................................................75
Mercado fatura R$ 11,8 bi até maio .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 76
University of Basel researchers prove 'full moon effect' impacts on human sleep............................................................................................................. 77
The Secret to Being an Awesome Marketer? Act Like a Child. ............................................................................................................................................... 80
6 Marketing Trends to Watch in 2013: New Research................................................................................................................................................................ 82

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Who I Am Is Less Important Than What I Do: Identifying the 'Right Data' ............................................................................................................................. 88
5 Rules for Turning Data Into Insights and Stories ...................................................................................................................................................................... 89
Fiat Launches Matchmaking Site to Lure Lonely California Car Buyers .................................................................................................................................. 91
SKY patrocina shows da turnê mundial do Hanson no Brasil e transmite ao vivo, pelo Facebook, apresentação de São Paulo ........................... 93
Especial Gamification: A arte e os desafios de fidelizar consumidores pelos games ....................................................................................................... 94
TV most popular for streaming ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................95
Users of Netflix, Other Subscription Video Services Prefer TV Shows to Movies by a Four-to-One Margin .............................................................95
The Data Pool: Adhesive Forms Retargeting Co-op To Move Up The Funnel ....................................................................................................................... 96
Why Facebook and Twitter are not the most innovative companies ....................................................................................................................................... 97
14 Things High Schoolers Should Know Before They Go To College ...................................................................................................................................... 98
How Big Data Is Transforming The Mobile Industry ..................................................................................................................................................................... 101
3 Questions to Ask Your New Digital Analytics Team Member .............................................................................................................................................. 102
The Rise Of Programmatic Direct .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 103
Introducing the Social-TV Ecosystem Chart 2.0 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 105
Audiência com Google e Microsoft é cancelada .......................................................................................................................................................................... 106
Convergence Analytics Now: 3 Ways This New Market Changes Everything ..................................................................................................................... 107
It's Not Either/or: TV and Social Advertising Complement Each Other .................................................................................................................................108
Google prepara serviço de TV para internet, diz jornal .............................................................................................................................................................. 110
The Mobile Web Gains Traction in Brazil ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 110
Helped by GE, Ayasdi positions itself at crest of Big Data’s second wave ........................................................................................................................... 111
Smartphones responderam por 40% das vendas de celulares no Brasil de janeiro a maio............................................................................................. 113
Brazil Reaches 100 Million Internet Users....................................................................................................................................................................................... 113
Why is the Media Industry Falling Behind on Digital Content Planning? ................................................................................................................................. 114
Forrester: $2.1 Trillion Will Go Into IT Spend In 2013; Apps And The U.S. Lead The Charge ........................................................................................... 115
Microsoft reshuffles company structure......................................................................................................................................................................................... 117
Brasil possui 102,3 milhões de conectados.................................................................................................................................................................................... 119
Intel Cooks Up Future of TV -- a Potential Mess for Cable ...................................................................................................................................................... 120
Addressable Ad Technology Brings Congressional Privacy Concerns ................................................................................................................................... 121
Opinião: 20 slides em 400 segundos ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 123
Marketers misunderstand ROI........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 124
UGC works for loyal consumers ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 125
Predicta instaura novo modelo de análise de campanhas digitais .......................................................................................................................................... 126
CHART OF THE DAY: The PC Business Implodes ........................................................................................................................................................................ 126


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Facebook Takes On TV-Like Messaging In Prime Time
by Wayne Friedman, Aug 1, 2013, 4:43 PM
TV, meet your new nightly, prime time competitor: Facebook.
The social media giant wants to charge video advertisers up to a big-time $2.5 million for a 15second spot, according to Bloomberg. Facebook users would see the spot no more than three
times a day.
That hefty price tag would be ten times the $250,000 or more that an advertiser typically pays for a
big 30-second primetime spot on a major high-rated broadcast network show like NBC‘s ―The
Voice,‖ CBS‘ ―NCIS,‖ Fox‘s ―American Idol‖ or ABC‘s ―Modern Family.‖
In terms of raw numbers, each of those shows might pull in 15-20 million viewers for 30 minutes or
one-hour‘s worth of programming and other messaging content.
Facebook? Its chief operating officer, Sheryl Sandberg, said during the company‘s‘ recent
earnings call that: ―Every night, 88 million to 100 million people are actively using Facebook during
prime-time TV hours in the United States alone.‖ Facebook had 198 million active U.S. users in
the second quarter 2013.
Facebook is sizing up the move as competition to TV. But admittedly video advertising on
Facebook wouldn‘t be anything like advertising on prime-time television. The Facebook
commercials will initially be sold on a full-day basis and targeted to users based only on age and
gender (which does sound like TV advertising).
Some full-day ads could be priced as low as $1 million, with the seemingly high price justified by
some people based on so-called active Internet engagement versus passive TV viewing.
Now, you may ask, why is Facebook targeting only on age and gender when digital media sellers
tell you that many more data points and consumer preferences can be included in their buys,
leading to better ROI?
Because targeting only by age and gender makes it easier for media planning and buying
executives to pull the trigger and shift money from -- where else -- the big coffers of their TV media
budgets. Helping out Facebook in this vein is new data that goes to the heart of the TV media
buying business: a report from Nielsen saying that Facebook attracts more 18 to 24-year-old
consumers during prime-time viewing hours than any of the four major television networks.
Commercial breaks are no reason to take a break from anything -- especially if you are a young
TV-watching adult. A consumer can be posting or looking at a Facebook page while a commercial
is running on ―Teen Mom,‖ ―Walking Dead‖ or ―Glee‖ -- that is, if they‘re not doing their social
media activity with one hand while fast-forwarding with the other.
That‘s the growing, some would say ―compelling,‖ multitasking activity that Facebook will now talk
up -- and look to charge TV advertisers a couple of million of dollars to access.
Read more: http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/205934/facebook-takes-on-tv-likemessaging-in-prime-time.html?edition=62996#ixzz2cG8HHIQi


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P&G ROI
Jul 17, 2013 Author Daniel Laury ADOTAS
The world‘s biggest advertiser, Procter & Gamble, is launching a review of how it measures the
impact of its $5 billion-plus annual spend. The company has implemented a new system for
measuring return on marketing investment and all eyes are on it.
P&G wants to get a better handle on the impact of digital media — including social and search —
and explain sales trends. They‘re starting relatively small, with five brands, and then expanding the
initiative to as many as twenty before rolling out any system companywide.
Given that P&G spent $2.8 billion last year in U.S. measured media, according to Kantar Media,
and another $3 billion to $4 billion in trade and consumer promotion, any lessons learned could
have dramatic implications for how brands in all industries place and measure digital advertising.
Here are four guidelines to improve the impact of your digital marketing.
Match Ad Format, Channel and Audience
Display, mobile, social, local, affiliate, contextual – the opportunities for digital marketing continue
to expand. Advertisers in many industries are discovering what some have known for years –
digital advertising works. The challenge is to find the best format and channel for your brand.
These days there is no consensus about which type of ad works best. It depends on your product,
its sales cycle, and your audience‘s online habits, preferences, and needs. No matter what type
you choose, one of the most important considerations when placing advertising is understanding
where your audience travels online.
I call this the ‖digital engagement path.‖ It‘s the virtual path that your customers and prospects
travel across the web — from Google search, to web site, to YouTube video, to blog, to Facebook,
to Pinterest and back again. Your goal as an advertiser is to connect with consumers in a relevant,
engaging, and friendly way that conveys a consistent message and motivates conversion —
without annoying or interrupting them.
Message Individuals, Not the Masses
Despite the evolution in formats and data analysis, too many marketers have been applying the
same mass marketing techniques used in the offline world to the digital world. Some advertisers
are stuck in the broadcast model and don‘t understand that the best way to alienate a potential
customer is to hijack their browser with an irrelevant ad.
Consumers are tuning out generic, mass-market messages and are choosing which marketing
messages they receive – when, where, and from whom. They expect, even demand, interactive
and consistent communication across every digital channel.
To succeed, brands must place their focus on individual interactions and the experiences each
consumer will have with their brands. Digital advertising is well suited to enable this approach.
Digital allows brands to have personalized conversations with consumers, measure ROI across
channels and derive value from the vast amount of data available to marketers.
Spend Your Ad Budget Where It Counts


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Advertisers continue to put their money into digital, shifting budgets, in many cases, away from
traditional formats.
Overall ad revenues will decline in the U.S. by 0.5% to $176.25 billion as advertisers shift dollars
away from local media, newspapers, radio and English-language broadcast network TV to digital
(MediaPost).
Domestic digital ad revenue hit $9.6 billion in Q1 2013, a 15.6% increase over the $8.3 billion
earned during Q1 2012 (Interactive Advertising Bureau).
Display is the fastest-growing subcategory, with 20% annual growth (Interactive Advertising
Bureau).
Online video and social media advertising are each growing at about 30% a year
(ZenithOptimedia).
Marketers will continue to invest in digital channels and advanced marketing technology, with 71%
of companies increasing digital spend in 2013 vs. just 20% increasing offline spend
(Econsultancy).
Over two- thirds of companies are driving more than half of their revenues from digital marketing
spend (Econsultancy).
Get Outside the Silo
Success in digital advertising, as in all endeavors, depends on thoughtful planning and the ability
to apply the lessons of one campaign to another. One of the benefits of a robust measurement
strategy is the ability to understand the cross-channel implications of your media plan. Avoid
evaluating each effort in silos that do not take into account consumer behavior and the influence of
one channel on another.
Create a measurement plan that involves these logical steps:
Define business success metrics
Identify channel metrics: those that directly support business objectives and those that support
channel-specific optimization and performance
Determine what data is needed to feed the metrics
Identify data sources (e.g., third party ad servers, research vendors, media vendors, etc.)
Create company-specific models to understand your ROI
Take a lesson from Procter & Gamble and put understanding digital advertising and its returns at
the forefront of your marketing efforts. Understanding your audience, matching its interests with
the right ad formats and channels, and thinking outside the silo will help you generate long-term
value with customers and prospects across the digital engagement path.


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P&G focuses on ROI
NEW YORK: Procter & Gamble, the FMCG giant, has set a "minimum ROI" level against which to
measure all of its US marketing campaigns, as the company ramps up its emphasis on
effectiveness.
Speaking on a conference call with analysts, AG Lafley, the firm's recently-reappointed chief
executive, reported that it was taking a granular approach to monitoring effectiveness.
"We know brand by brand in the US and in a lot of other markets the range of effectiveness we
can deliver, and it's wide. And so we are holding all of the businesses to a minimum ROI," he said.
Alongside providing some vital benchmarks, this initiative forms part of a broader effort to more
stringently plan and monitor communications.
"Our problem is not the total amount we are spending. Our problem is the mix, our opportunity is
the mix and we are going to get the mix better and better and better and there is a lot of
opportunity there," he said.
"We're pounding away on communication effectiveness. We're pounding away on best media,"
said Lafley. "But it's a brand by brand, category by category, consumer segment by consumer
segment set of decisions."
New media, Lafley revealed, is taking a rising share of P&G's budget. "Our digital I think is now up
to 35% in the US, roughly. It goes up and down, 25% to 35%," he said.
"We have some businesses and brands where digital is incredibly effective, and we're doing more.
We have other brands that are on the learning curve. They've got to get up the learning curve
faster."
While predicting that total advertising expenditure levels will rise "pretty significantly" on an annual
basis, P&G anticipates that the pace of this expansion will fall 20 basis points behind sales growth.
However, rather than lower levels of advertising, reach and frequency, the goal is to maximise the
payback from its campaigns, provide a greater clarity of messaging and cut the costs which
consumers "never see".
Looking more broadly, Lafley reported that the organisation may streamline its portfolio if certain
brands consistently fail to meet expectations.
"We will continue to focus the company's portfolio, allocating resources to businesses where we
can create disproportionate value and continuing to exit those where we cannot," he said.
Data sourced from Seeking Alpha; additional content by Warc staff, 5 August 2013
Read more at
http://www.warc.com/LatestNews/News/EmailNews.news?ID=31750&Origin=WARCNewsEmail&u
tm_source=WarcNews&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=WarcNews20130805#tELpyQ16oi1b
5L0h.99


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Is It Really Time for Your Brand To Be “RTB”–Real Time Bidding?
By Randall Beard | Business 2 Community – Thu, Aug 1, 2013 7:30 AM EDT
Any casual reader of my posts would know that I believe the future of advertising is increasingly
real time (and RTB). In TV, this usually takes the Is It Really Time for Your Brand To Be ―RTB‖–
Real Time Bidding? image RTB Button 300x240
Is It Really Time for Your Brand To Be ―RTB‖–Real Time Bidding?
form of copy rotation, given the very real difficulties in changing programming on the fly. In digital,
however, it‘s a completely different story.
One of the hotter trends in digital advertising is the continued rise of real time bidding (RTB).
Rising out of seemingly nowhere just a few short years ago, RTB now represents over 50% of
display advertising according to eMarketer and other sources. There‘s even an app that tracks
RTB adoption—The Rubicon Project.
Is this a good thing for your brand and should your agency be using it on your brand‘s behalf?
Real Time Bidding (RTB)—What Is It?
Real time bidding is just what is suggests: the ability to bid on specific digital audiences in real
time. Constructed in real time, RTB buys audiences thru bidding based on pre-defined parameters
rather than the traditional approach of the media agency developing a digital media plan and then
buying specific sites and placements.
RTB combines web browsing behavior, information about consumers thru third party cookies,
sophisticated algorithms—enabled by demand and supply side platforms and ad exchanges.
Demand side platforms, or DSPs, automate the purchasing of digital advertising on behalf of
advertisers. Supply side platforms, or SSPs, manage the publisher‘s digital inventory available for
sale. Ad exchanges link the DSPs and SSPs together thru software tools that facilitate the
purchase of display inventory in real time auctions.
RTB Example–How It Works
Example: You are in the car insurance market and your intended audience is females who recently
purchased a car and aged 21 to 45.
The publisher provides its available inventory to the SSP (not all inventory is available for RTB).
Your agency‘s demand side platform (DSP) bids for individual digital impressions against your
intended audience. The ad exchange conducts the auction through an automated bidding system
that unfolds in the milliseconds before a webpage is loaded by a consumer.
If the loading web page is being viewed by a female aged 21 to 45 and who recently purchased a
car, the DSP places a bid for the ad unit. If the price is right (e.g., your bid is highest), your bid
wins the auction, your ad loads on the browser, and is served to the consumer on the publishers
site. If your price isn‘t right, you lose the auction and your ad isn‘t served. And if the consumer isn‘t
your intended audience, the DSP makes no bid. This process is replicated millions and millions of
times and builds your digital media plan in real time.
Real Time Bidding (RTB) Applications
Audience Profile–The most basic approach with RTB is to bid for specific audiences. Audience
profiles can be bought based on demographics, buyer behaviors, and past web browsing
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behavior, etc. This enables advertisers to be much more precise in buying only the audience that
they want.
TV Viewing Behavior—This approach enables you to buy digital audiences to complement your
TV advertising campaign. For example, advertisers often want to use on-line to extend reach to
consumers who are unlikely to see their TV campaigns. Presto, bid only for audiences who haven‘t
seen your TV advertising.
Brand Impact—Current digital ad effectiveness tools measure the brand lift of your on-line
advertising in real time, so it‘s only natural that the DSP‘s have enabled these tools to drive RTB.
So, if your real time brand lift metrics show that certain sites and placements are performing better
than others, the DSP translates this into real time bids for the best performing sites and
placements.
Sales—Not surprisingly, on-line direct marketing was an early pioneer of using RTB. Using
response based measures, they used RTB to bid for specific audiences, behaviors, sites, etc. that
were most associated with sales response. More recently, multi-touch attribution modeling is
enabling the same for off-line sales response— and connecting this data to DSPs and the RTB
process.
Real Time Bidding (RTB)—Too Good to Be True?
This really sounds like marketing nirvana—the ability to:
Buy only your intended audience without wastage (remember TRPs?).
Buy only those sites and placements with the biggest brand lift.
Buy only the placements which drive the most sales response.
Clearly, the market has voted, with over 50% of display ads now bought via RTB. But it still sounds
too good to be true. Is it?
Issues with RTB
Viewability—This is not an issue with RTB per se, but rather a broader on-line issue. Data from
Nielsen and other companies show that ~ 40 to 50% of on-line ads are not viewable. That is, they
aren‘t ―above the fold‖ and in view for at least one second. If an ad isn‘t viewable, then it can‘t be
effective.
Premium Inventory—Initially, publishers placed their remnant inventory into play with RTB. While
this is clearly no longer the case, publishers continue to withhold premium display and online video
inventory from RTB.
RTB isn‘t nirvana, but it‘s a pretty big deal. The confluence of audience behavioral data, software,
and technology has yielded what should be a classically efficient market: where bidding defines
value, buyers and sellers are matched at the optimal bid price and brands should benefit with
improved ad effectiveness.
RTB is still young. While not perfect, it‘s only going to get better. Keep your eyes on this one.


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Even Creatives Are Using Real-Time Data
by Tyler Loechner, Aug 2, 2013, 3:45 PM
I had the chance to speak with PointRoll CEO Mario Diez the other day about a McDonald's case
study which involved turning big data into real-time intelligence. PointRoll worked with McDonald's
agency H&L Partners to deploy "dynamic" creative messaging in real-time.
By using real-time data, creatives have a much better chance of delivering the right message to
the right people at the right time. You already knew this, but it was funny hearing Diez explain it.
"[Marketers] wake up every morning and they realize, 'Holy #%! my creative might be out of date. I
just learned something this morning. I spent months building my TV assets and they might be out
of date.'"
I asked Diez to define dynamic creative messaging. His response: "Creative messaging that is
dynamically build dependent on the data of the marketer's campaign."
So, uh, that's still pretty confusing.
Here's the definition I gathered from the conversation: Changing the creative in ads based on realtime data.
The idea behind dynamic creative is that a single ad template can be placed and run like a
traditional display campaign. The difference is that the content of that ad can change in real-time
based on who is seeing it.
Using the "dynamic" real-time creative strategy, McDonald's saw overall campaign click-through
rates (CTR) increase by 65%. The dynamic campaign had a CTR lift of 112%. Diez asked, "Why
wouldn't you do that?"
Diez said that the actual placement of the ads doesn't change, just what happens after the ad has
been placed. I also asked him whether or not the publishers care that the ads on their site can
change (the advertiser is the same, but the content of the ad is what can change). He said,
"There's an approval process for a lot of the publisher to be aware of what's happening on the
creative side. When you have thousands of variations of ads, it just becomes unscalable." He
added, "[But] we are at a point now where publishers have been working with media clients for a
long time and there's a high level of trust."
To me, this seems like a good way to bring real-time data targeting to display advertising without
dealing with the exchanges. More importantly, this seems like a good way to let the creatives get a
feel for big data. Isn't everyone always saying that the best part of automation is that it frees up the
humans to focus on strategy and creative?
2 comments on "Even Creatives Are Using Real-Time Data".
Myles Younger from Canned Banners
commented on: August 2, 2013 at 4:17 p.m.
I can sympathize with Mr. Diaz' somewhat obtuse definition of dynamic ad creative. It's not easy to
encapsulate. Once ad creative is made to be dynamic, responsive, and contextually self-aware,
there are a practically infinite number of tactics and applications. A tactic might be "let's allow the
ad to look up the current weather in the viewer's area," whereas an application might be "now that
our ad is enabled with weather data, let's have the ad feature products that are relevant to the
current weather." I'll add one more thing to Mr. Diaz' quote "Creative messaging that is ...
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dependent on the data of the marketer's campaign." The creative messaging can also influenced
by CONTEXTUAL information that does not come from the marketer (the current weather, for
instance). At the end of the day, the pitch should not be that dynamic creative is some esoteric,
must-have technology with a confusing 20-word description. Rather, the pitch should be that the
dynamic creative vendor will assimilate the advertiser's campaign goals, and then work backwards
to reduce an infinite array of options down to a simple mix of dynamic elements that will exceed
the performance of static (non-dynamic) creative.
David Haro from Adap.tv
commented on: August 5, 2013 at 8:58 a.m.
What kind of real-time data are we talking about here? Dynamic creative messaging has been
around for years. Based on where you've been and what you've done, a creative can be
assembled accordingly. As Mr. Younger mentions in his comments, you can layer other data such
as weather, even geo. The likes of PointRoll, MediaMind, Mediaplex, and Spongecell have been
doing this for at least a good five years.
Read more: http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/205933/even-creatives-are-using-realtime-data.html?edition=62993#ixzz2cG7Vb7Bt

'All Models Are Wrong, but Some Are Useful'
Neil Mason | August 8,
So said the statistician George Box. Clarifying what he meant, Box went on to say, "Remember
that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be
useful?" I think he had a point that's worth thinking about a bit.
The increased use of data mining and predictive analytical techniques within organizations to
reduce risk and improve decision-making means that managers will be exposed more and more to
the results of these approaches. They will be increasingly using them to make recommendations
or to decide on courses of action. So, how do you know how wrong the model is and whether or
not it can be useful?
All Models Are Wrong
This is a statement of fact, rather than a controversial opinion. After all, the best model of a house
is the house itself. A scale model of the house is one representation of the real thing and will give
you a 3D perspective but possibly not some of the detail that you're looking for. The set of the
architect's drawings will potentially have the detail you're looking for but it may be difficult to
visualize what the finished house might look like. A painting of the house set in its landscape will
give you a different context. If you're building a house you may end up using all three approaches
to make decisions about how the building should go.
It's the same with analytical models. They are all representations of the real thing, simplified to a
greater or lesser degree. All of them are "wrong" to a greater or lesser degree. So, how can you
tell how wrong they are?
Most models have measures of fit or error of one type or another. There are different ways fit and
errors can be measured depending on the type of modelling technique being used. For example,
in simple linear regression, which probably most people are familiar with, the R squared or
correlation coefficient is a basic measure of the quality of the fit of the model. It broadly explains
how much of the variation in the data can be explained by the model. But it's only one
measurement of how good the model is and modellers will be balancing that measurement with

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others to come up with the best model for the purpose for which it's intended. That's the art in the
science of modelling.
But Some Are Useful
We can construct some notion of "wrong" from metrics and statistics, but how do we develop our
notion of "useful"? Whereas "wrong" in this case is essentially an analytical concept, the notion of
"useful" is really a commercial or business concept. It's useful if it helps me make better decisions
and reduce risks. But the best models are not necessarily the most useful. Here are a couple of
examples.
Cluster analysis is often used as a technique for creating customer segments. These segments
may be required to drive some type of target marketing activity. Cluster analysis is what is known
as an unsupervised learning technique, which broadly means you give it some data, it does its
own thing, and then gives an answer. You then have to figure out what the answer is telling you.
The technique will give the best model it can from an algorithmic point of view but it may not be
that useful. For example, the segments may not add to your existing body of understanding or they
may not be that actionable. That could mean that a slightly poorer model may be more useful
because you can translate the segmentation into a marketing program you can execute on.
Another example is in econometric modelling. This technique is often used for marketing mix
performance analysis where you're looking to understand the impact of various elements of the
marketing mix on something like product sales. It's possible to build quite elaborate models that
explain a great deal about what drives sales from marketing factors to competitive factors to
macro-economic factors. However, the model is difficult to use because if you want to look at
different scenarios or forecast the impact of a change, there's so much data that needs to be
inputted into it that it becomes a time-consuming and laborious process. In this case a simpler
model may actually be more effective because it's easier to use.
So, if you're reviewing some outputs from a piece of modelling work that's been done, it's always
useful to keep George Box in mind and ask yourself (or the modeller) a couple of questions:
"How wrong is it?" (i.e., is it robust enough?)
"What can I do with it?" (i.e., is it useful?)
In fact, thinking about it, that probably applies to any piece of analysis.

O futuro da TV chegou e sem hora marcada
Quem não lembra ou pelo menos ouviu falar, das noites de domigo nos anos 70 e 80, quando
pontualmente, às 19:00h, as hilárias aventuras lideradas pelo Anti-Herói brasileiro Didi Mocó,
começavam e arrancavam gargalhadas das crianças e famílias brasileiras? Quando o Didi nos
chamava com a maior intimidade de ―Ô Psit?― e ―Ô da poltrona?‖, ele parecia ter certeza que a
gente estava ali, vidrados e grudados na tela da TV. E estávamos. A gente se distraía ou
arranjava alguma coisa pra fazer nos intervalos comerciais, e voltava voando para a frente da TV
quando o programa ameaçava retornar. Voltei muito no tempo? Só mais um minutinho.
Quando a TV ―controlava‖ o nosso tempo era mais do que a época áurea da TV brasileira. Era
uma distante época de controle sobre o tempo da audiência e o que havia à disposição na grade
de programação, na tela da TV. Um tempo de controle total sobre a hora em que a audiência iria
assistir a programacão. Porque cada dia está mais impossível saber aonde, quando e como a
audiência assistirá o seu programa favorito.
O mundo foi reconfigurado: O Futurismo virou Presentismo.

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Afinal o que está acontecendo hoje? Viramos zumbis digitais obcecados por tecnologia? A
tecnologia tomou conta da Terra e dominou as nossas vidas? Não. Mas parece que email é coisa
do passado, que ninguém tem tempo, nem paciência para ler um texto que ultrapasse 140
caracteres, e muito menos para responder. Não toleramos mais o intervalo comercial na TV, e
―pulamos‖ o da web, por ser uma interrupção intrusiva no nosso tempo.
Há quase quatro décadas a nossa relação com o tempo vem se transformando profundamente.
Somos imediatistas, apressados, impacientes, dispersivos, etc. Tudo ao nosso redor, na
sociedade , na cultura mundial, economia, política, nas corporações, na forma de fazermos
negócios e de nos relacionarmos, mudou.
Vivemos hoje uma realidade contemporânea mais do que prevista por George Orwell em seu
último romance,‖1984‖, publicado em 1949, onde o personagem central, Winston, vivia
aprisionado na engrenagem totalitária de uma sociedade completamente dominada pelo Estado,
onde tudo era feito coletivamente, mas cada qual vivia sozinho. Ao redor, na história, havia uma
intensa vigilância do emblemático personagem ―Big Brother‖, uma personificação do poder.
Alvin Toffler, Marshall McLuhan, Gibson, Pierre Levy e outros sábios futuristas e filósofos,
enxergaram há muito tempo um Futurismo de amplas transformações sociais na vida das
pessoas. Um futuro que é o nosso presente.
Por exemplo, em ―O Choque do Futuro‖, livro de Toffler lançado em 1970, uma série de previsões
sobre o futuro arrepiaram as pessoas na época, mas se concretizaram ao longo do tempo.
Viveríamos um fluxo de mudanças tão acelerado, que influenciaria a nossa sensação de tempo,
revolucionando o ritmo da vida cotidiana e afetando a forma como sentimos o mundo ao nosso
redor. As pessoas e instituições teriam dificuldade em lidar com essa rapidez, todos se sentiriam
obrigados a ter respostas imediatas, ficariam confusos na hora de tomar decisões e sofreriam
muito por causa disso. Teríamos uma forte sensação de desorientação e quando tudo começasse
a mudar de modo acelerado, muitas coisas se tornariam temporárias e facilmente descartadas.
Até clonagem de animais poderia acontecer, segundo o autor futurista.
Toffler sabia que as novas tecnologias nunca surgiriam sozinhas no futuro. Seria um pacote de
mudanças tecnológicas, seguidas de mudanças sociais, políticas e culturais. A estrutura familiar
seria afetada com a expansão dos computadores. As mulheres sairiam de casa para trabalhar e
exigiriam, cada vez mais, o seu lugar ativo na sociedade. As famílias se tornariam menores e
haveria uma evolutiva diversificação das mesmas. Enfim, o mundo foi acelerando, se
descentralizando e se multiplicando. Os valores e conceitos da sociedade, também.
Barack Obama e a privacidade. Há quarenta anos atrás, por exemplo, o atual presidente dos
EUA, Barack Obama, crescia no Havaí, cercado por um amplo e arraigado preconceito racial,
uma verdade absoluta estabelecida como realidade, vinda da maioria da população.
Hoje, quarenta anos depois, a tal verdade absoluta e absurda, se tornou a opinião de uma
minoria. Ainda bem que nem tudo é tão chocante e assustador, no atual Presentismo que
vivemos. Fico impressionada com a reação apavorada e revoltada das pessoas por causa do
discurso recente do Obama, sobre ninguém poder viver com segurança e privacidade. Ele não é
o Big Brother do George Orwell, como mencionei aqui antes. A sociedade sim se tornou um
gigante Big Brother. Não são as redes sociais que causam isso. Nós somos agentes com total
responsabilidade sobre a tal sensação de vulnerabilidade e exposição de privacidade que
reclamamos. Não somos vítimas. Alguma vez alguém te obrigou a dar um
―Check-in‖ no Foursquare, assim que você chega no trabalho ou na balada?
Lembro então, de um trecho da coluna sempre deliciosamente provocativa e irônica, do filósofo
Luiz Felipe Pondé (Folha de SP – 22/07/13) – que na minha opinião é um potente intérprete da

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Era contemporânea, sobre a atual invasão de privacidade, Obama, e redes sociais: ―… por muito
menos, vigiamos a geladeira para ver quantos iogurtes tem, os armários da cozinha, as sacolas
das empregadas para ver se elas estão levando algum pacotinho de carne… celulares nos
avisam quando algo acontece em nossa conta e em nosso cartão de crédito, e isso tudo é muito
prático, não?‖
Os tempos atuais são também hiperconsumistas e hipermidiáticos, configurados por uma
superabundância de informações, de imagens, de ofertas excessivas de marcas, uma imensa
variedade de produtos, restaurantes, festivais, músicas, filmes e fatos que podem ser
encontrados em qualquer parte do mundo, a qualquer momento. Jamais um consumidor teve
tanto à sua disposição e com tanta convicção de que pode escolher e ter no tempo que quiser,
quantas vezes e onde preferir . E, é claro, fazer o mundo saber. Nosso jeito de ser multi-tasking
(multi-tarefas) se intensifica.
Somos espectadores que participam e produzem na Sociedade do Espetáculo. Ao vivo. Agora. E
em tempo real.
Há uma ampla hiperindividualização que configura o quanto nos fechamos menos para o mundo,
enquanto a nossa conexão com o grande mundo, só aumenta. Quanto mais as culturas se
aproximam hoje, mais se desenvolve uma dinâmica de pluralização, heterogenização e
diversidade social. O que ajuda fortemente a mudar a nossa relação com a distância e o tempo. A
Terra nunca foi tão pequena. Os grandes acontecimentos históricos ou esportivos são vistos ao
vivo, como um conteúdo linear. Todos podem ter acesso imediato às imagens, e os fatos são
retransmitidos e amplificados de forma desordenada e não linear. Uma notícia, muitas vezes é
reproduzida pela audiência, e é capaz de se espalhar e reverberar pelo mundo, dispersa pela
rede, em segundos. Os fãs de seriados não conseguem esperar uma semana para ver o próximo
episódio. A ansiedade contemporânea naturalmente provoca e intensifica a pirataria, em diversos
segmentos da indústria cultural.
Todos têm acesso imediato às imagens e às informações, de todos os cantos do mundo. Em uma
cultura mundial de compressão do tempo e encolhimento do espaço. O ―local‖ está ligado ao
―global‖. Um intenso sentimento de simultaneidade e imediatismo se faz presente e permite, aos
indivíduos afastados no espaço, que compartilhem de uma mesma informação, de uma mesma
experiência. E em tempo real. Porque ninguém quer se sentir de fora ou estar por fora de um
assunto que acontece agora.
O ―Ô da poltrona‖ sumiu mesmo. Mas ele continua vendo TV e cada vez mais conectado. Porém
o controle do tempo foi transferido para ele, E não trocamos a tela da TV pelas telas menores.
Adicionamos. As telas convivem e coexistem porque é absolutamente humano ver, curtir,
discordar, comentar, e socializar. Algo antigo na vida de todos. A mudança é que a tecnologia
enriqueceu e tornou muito mais divertida, e em tempo real, a experiência de fazer várias outras
coisas simultaneamente, enquanto vemos TV. Navegar na web, postar, comentar, twittar e
pesquisar enquanto vemos um seriado favorito, é incrível. A conexão com o mundo fica melhor, a
sensação de sintonia e de estar por dentro é boa, muito boa. Sem risco de ser pego desprevinido
por alguém que conta detalhes do episódio daquela semana, na hora em que ele vai ao ar. O uso
das redes sociais só ajuda a audiência a voltar para a TV.
SocialTV: A TV se reinventa e tenta sair da ―caixa‖.
A revolução da tecnologia e do comportamento social continua. A reinvenção do negócio e do
conceito da TV flui fora do Brasil, de forma acelerada. O que os americanos chamam de
―Consumer Cord-Cutting‖ é uma ameaça ainda não expressiva, mas real, à TV à cabo. Seriam
assinantes de TV à cabo abandonando este sistema, optando por Apple TV, Google, Amazon,
Hulu, Netflix, HBO Go, que distribuem sua programação via Streaming. Uma escolha que parece
natural e reflexo da sociedade contemporânea, que vive plenamente a liberdade do controle

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remoto e da grade de programação da TV. Indo além do aparelho da TV. Seria a livre escolha da
programação, do conteúdo, do Entretenimento. Não é uma escolha de tela, de plataformas ou de
mídia.
Assim como outro fenômeno comportamental, chamado ―Binge Watching TV‖. Como a
humanidade tem pressa, é ansiosa, cada vez mais insaciável, quer tudo na hora e sabe que pode
ter, literalmente ―mergulha‖, se esbalda e, da mesma forma que devoraria de uma vez só um pote
gigante de sorvete, ou um bolo inteiro de chocolate, ou uma garrafa inteirinha de Whisky, assiste
os treze capítulos da primeira temporada de House of Cards ou Orange is the New Black, em
uma tacada, sem parar, em um fim de semana, e quantas vezes quiser. Para o antropólogo e
escritor americano Grant McCracken, isso acontece porque o indivíduo cria uma espécie de
espaço e tempo paralelos à tensa realidade cotidiana, sentindo um certo conforto e
distanciamento, pelo menos por um tempo. Tanto na vida como vendo TV. O ―pulo do gato‖ que a
atual líder Netflix usou para sacudir o mercado e superar a HBO em milhões de assinantes, foi
exatamente inspirado no comportamento, sintonizando o serviço e o conteúdo com a audiência,
com a forma contemporânea e super humana de ver TV. A Netflix financiou a produção de três
seriados originais e disponibilizou a 1a temporada para os assinantes, de uma vez só.
O futuro da TV tradicional chegou e vai continuar a evoluir. Mesmo que demore um pouco no
Brasil. Os concorrentes da Netflix no mundo, são potentes gladiadores tanto pelo conteúdo
próprio e excepcional (HBO) que produzem, como pelas inovações tecnológicas que ainda
surgirão na tentativa de alcançar e capturar a audiência. Uma audiência com muito poder.
Patrícia Weiss, Brand Strategy Consultant (Brand Culture & Branded Entertainment) e Chief
Strategy Officer da Wanted
Leia Mais: http://www.meioemensagem.com.br/home/comunicacao/ponto_de_vista/2013/08/02/Ofuturo-da-TV-chegou-e-sem-hora-marcada.html#ixzz2bEhSb5FQ

The Rise of Programmatic Buying: Winners & Losers
brian@pvtl.com
BOTTOM LINE: With last week's weak operating results at Yahoo (YHOO, Hold) punctuated by
commentary about the negative effects of programmatic buying on the their results, we thought it
worth reviewing how ad tech and changes in advertiser preferences towards programmatic buying
are causing what we characterize as a permanent decline in traditional premium display
advertising, an area in which Yahoo has been a leader.
Key points highlighted in this report include:
•

Online display advertising is a structurally weak business for most media owners.

•

Some digital media owners are partially or fully immune from this trend.

•
As the company which drives most of these trends, Google (GOOG, Hold) is arguably the
primary beneficiary of the transition away from premium display.
•
Changes to digital media planning and buying preferences and processes is the driver of
the weakness in publishers' fortunes, including an increasing focus on automation to drive costs
out of processes paired with an increasing focus on "audience" and efforts to include more data
into media buying practices.
•
The shift towards programmatic buying worsened a negotiating dynamic that was never
going to be particularly favorable to digital media owners.

Page 15

•
Who has credible ability to walk away from a negotiation between buyers and sellers makes
a difference in assessing an industry, and this advantage is amplified in digital media with
programmatic buying.
From all of this we can see several winning and losing business models. First, any aspect of the
process with relative scale when compared with competitors is durable, largely because this
results in an entity with more data that can be better put to use in driving efficiencies in the rest of
the system. Second, relationship-driven parts of the process which remain relationship-driven can
be relatively durable.
Unfortunately, many digital media owners who focus solely upon creating value for consumers and
improving ad products as ends unto themselves will probably need to develop new business
models. We see a false notion around the premise that products which are inherently valuable will
be monetized well, independent of industry structure and negotiating conditions. For those
publishers, the experience of the newspaper industry may be most appropriate. Many were
seemingly taken by surprise at the state with which their advertising base deteriorated. They, too,
could point to a product which was inherently valuable, but it arguably didn't matter. Their biggest
problem was that advertisers explored alternatives, and eventually cut spending to a significant
degree. The same is increasingly true when it comes to their choices to buy advertising
programmatically on the web. New business models are gradually emerging for the newspapers,
such as paywalls, and new forms of monetization will similarly have to emerge for many of today's
leading digital media owners.
Overall, there will be many exceptions to our conclusions, but the industry data which highlights
tepid growth for almost everyone other than Google, Facebook and a handful of others seems to
reinforce our views.
RISKS. Three core risks for all web publishers relate to: 1) high degree of rivalry given an absence
of barriers preventing new competition from emerging 2) overly high and increasing capital needs
to remain and 3) government regulations and consumer pushback related to management of
consumer data and respect for privacy.

CEOs suspicious of creativity
LONDON: Most chief executives think advertising and media agencies are too focused on
creativity and not enough on business results, a new survey has found.
The Fournaise Marketing Group, a performance measurement and management company,
interviewed more than 1,200 chief executive officers and decision makers around the world for its
2013 Global Marketing Effectiveness Program.
It found that 78% thought agencies were not performance-driven enough and did not focus
enough on helping to generate the business results they expected their marketing departments to
deliver.
In addition, 76% felt agencies talked too much about "creativity as the saviour" while not being
able to prove or quantify it. Indeed, they believed that agencies were frequently opportunistic in
claiming credit for results that could be attributed to other factors such as the product, sales force,
channel or pricing.
Trust was further eroded by the realisation by 72% of CEOs that agencies were not as data- and
science-driven as they had expected. There was too much reliance on gut-feelings, hearsay,
wrong methodologies and questionable information.


Page 16

Money was another issue, as 70% of chief executives thought agencies claimed inadequate
budgets or slow payment times as excuses for an inability to deliver expected business results.
Jerome Fontaine, Global CEO & Chief Tracker of Fournaise, said that chief executives saw two
types of agency, one performance-driven and trustable, the other pretending to be performancedriven and not trustable.
He anticipated that the pretenders' reaction to the survey would be to attack the findings,
questioning their accuracy and ensuring their views were heard in the media.
"The 'performers' will smile, nod and will continue doing what they've been doing best: constantly
tracking their creative/media performance and delivering (real and P&L-quantifiable) business
results for their clients, week in, week out," Fontaine concluded.
The overall picture could change, however, if agencies were willing to move to a payment-byresults business model, as the survey revealed that 89% of chief executives saw this as a way of
forcing agencies to focus on what CEOs actually expected from them.
Data sourced from Fournaise Marketing Group; additional content by Warc staff, 12 July 2013
Read more at
http://www.warc.com/LatestNews/News/EmailNews.news?ID=31651&Origin=WARCNewsEmail&u
tm_source=WarcNews&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=WarcNews20130712#YC1Iv4ez57Y
FSkkf.99

Why ROI Is Often Wrong For Measuring Marketing Impact
7/09/2013 By Daniel Kehrer, Director at MarketShare
ROI is seductively simple. But is it what you really want?
Marketers beware, this might hurt: Using ROI to gauge impact can severely distort the true value
marketing is delivering for your organization. Oh-Oh! Sure, it‘s hard to have a marketing
conversation these days without hearing ROI-this and ROI-that. It is, after all, one of today‘s most
beloved business buzz terms. And of course top management wants the ―bottom line‖ on
marketing‘s contribution to business goals, and ROI is a handy yardstick.
But is ―return on investment‖ an accurate way to measure marketing effectiveness? Sadly – and
perhaps even shockingly to some – the answer is no.
It‘s not that the notion of ROI is evil or anything. After all, linking marketing to financial
performance is absolutely critical. It‘s just that most people who use ROI in a marketing context
probably aren‘t applying it correctly, or really mean something else, says Dominique Hanssens,
professor of marketing at UCLA Anderson School of Management. ROI‘s roots are in evaluating
one-time capital projects. ―But is marketing a one-time capital project?‖ asks Hanssens. Clearly
not.
We might (and indeed do) talk about marketing ―investments‖ all the time. But marketing
expenditures are technically an expense, as opposed to an investment, and that‘s an issue here.
In finance-speak, marketing costs are a P&L item, not a balance sheet item.
In the video above, Prof. Hanssens discusses how marketing measurement is adapting to a
changing world.


Page 17

As a result, notes Hanssens, who is also co-founder of MarketShare, marketers rarely mean ROI
when they say ROI. ―Plain‖ ROI is certainly an important metric for managers. But it falls well short
of helping us understand marketing‘s contribution to business goals, or how those contributions
can be improved. ROI is too limited. To gauge and improve marketing effectiveness, for example,
we must factor in the strategic intent of all marketing investments a company makes.
The Rub over ROI
We‘d all love to quantify marketing performance with a single number. But ROI is a ratio, and
ratios are not what matter here. Net cash flows are what really matter, says Hanssens.
Performance measures such as net profit, for example, are derived by subtracting various costs
from revenue. ROI is different. You get it by dividing net revenue by cost.
Question is, how can a CMO compare the ROI for different marketing investments, such as a
television ad campaign versus a paid search campaign? As it turns out, you can only make an ROI
comparison if the spending amounts are the same.
And it‘s also critical to know that maximum ROI does not necessarily produce maximum profit.
Oops! Blame the Law of Diminishing Returns. Many marketers might think that the highest ROI
corresponds to the best spending level. Unfortunately, that‘s not so. For example, should you stop
spending when ROI drops, even if you continue to produce bigger profits? Most likely not. The
point at which you‘d stop or make a change depends on the return of the last incremental amount
spent, not the overall ROI.
This is also what‘s known as ―return on marginal investment‖ – or ROMI. And ―marginal‖ return vs.
an average is what makes all the difference for accurately interpreting results and making
decisions on future spending. So if you must use a return measure to gauge marketing
effectiveness, use ROMI.
ROI, you see, changes at different spending levels. It is not only a function of the medium, but also
of the investment in that medium. The only thing you really need to know is whether ROMI is
positive or negative. Or, put another way, are you underspending in a given
category…overspending…or getting it ―just right‖ (where ROMI is zero)? And the determining
lever is how much you spend.
Tracking Complex Interactions
What‘s more, a good ROI around a specific activity means nothing if broader marketing goals
aren‘t being met. Focusing solely on dollars-in (―I‖) compared to dollars-out (―R‖) ignores a
complex web of interactions that happen in between. Only by analyzing as many of those
intermediate processes as possible can we gain insights into what‘s working and what‘s not, and
alter allocations to achieve better results. (This video on the ―Essentials of Advertising 2.0‖
explains further.)
The core takeaway bears repeating: If you settle for a seductively simple measure such as ROI,
you may severely distort the true value that marketing is delivering for your organization.
Daniel Kehrer, a long-time business & financial journalist, columnist and editor, is the author of
seven books and earned his MBA from the UCLA Anderson School of Management.


Page 18

Times Have Changed - and so Should Your Approach to Segmentation
Katrina Conn | July 23, 2013
As marketers, we've aptly armed our consumer base with an unlimited amount of options when
considering how each varying audience group might choose to receive our communications and
related marketing information.
As we look beyond some of the most humble beginnings of direct marketing and to what's now
become commonplace for other channels, the usual suspects (i.e., the strategies that have led to
the marketing efforts behind them) are driven by the fact that from one recipient to the next, the
desired method of receipt is more times than not - different. One might have a preference for
receiving communications via email, SMS messaging, or deals that can be shared with friends and
family across a wider social platform. When thinking about communicating across any of these
mentioned channels to an audience, how are brands handling segmentation?
Segmentation for Email
Segmentation for email as a channel across industries still continues to grow leaps and bounds.
As consumers, we have demanded and come to expect our marketers to segment and create
better message experiences based on things like brand affinity and registration activity down to
our account details (e.g., balance statement summaries, member level exclusivity messaging,
etc.).
One great achievement with segmentation in email stems from the beauty of progressive profiling.
It's not entirely a new concept, but definitely gaining traction more and more. Providing the
sensibility to allow any subsequent pushes to recipients based on a previous consumer-instigated
action is not only reasonable, it's logical, as well as expected by your consumers. This focus helps
the next iteration of communications seem more personalized and less like an unsolicited
marketing effort.
Segmentation for Mobile
Quick, easy access is undeniably hot right now. Even those of us who are historically slow to catch
up with technology bank on the fact that we have access to email, financial accounts, and other
information at the touch of our fingertips. It's just convenient.
Companies are no longer denying the fact that more and more users are accessing their
information via their mobile devices, and in turn have begun taking steps to make the user
experience more readily accessible by optimizing creative and marketing communications for
mobile devices.
Much like email, in the future, as more thought is being placed into segmentation for mobile,
consumers can look to communication preferences being explicitly mapped to the following areas
(if not already taking place): area code, country, region, geo-location, carrier, brand, model, OS,
etc.
Segmentation for Social
Which social networks are your active audience segments currently a part of? Does your brand
have a social presence of any kind? Do you care about social marketing and what value has your
organization placed on it? What vested interest has your company placed on social marketing and

Page 19

to what degree does that level of interest play into the overall goals across channels? OK, now
that we've gotten the "first date" questions out of the way...
Do you currently capture data values from your audience segments that give any visibility into their
preferred social networks? Some may not see or feel there is a need in doing this well - if at all.
However, there are those who have made concerted efforts in this regard. They've gone further
than simply regurgitating marketing or promotional email messages onto distinctive brand social
pages. The more progressive marketers have even begun to think more intuitively. Questions
about segmenting - socially - are posed among the decision-makers of the organization. Which
segments have an affinity for LinkedIn? Which brand loyalists are merely communicating via
Facebook or Twitter? How can we make note of our followers' "interests" or "likes," and message
more appropriately to them?
Socially, it is reasonably understandable that for any audience segment, a company's social
presence has to make sense. An even better strategy is to look at building a segment of a
company's top influencers, making an effort to incentivize those loyalists, and giving them
reason(s) to be the quintessential brand advocate. Realistically though, this might not be so wise if
an overwhelming majority of a database has no social activity at all. Reiterating that first point, it
has to make sense to even play in the social sandbox.
The Recap
At the very least, creating a holistic experience for any particular market requires a segmentation
strategy that if done well (and deemed appropriate) would provide overarching, cross-channel
direction that is explicit and tailored in nature. In our efforts to learn more about our consumers,
we've gone to such great lengths to capture various data points, and yet so few are actually
pausing to take a step back and look at the obvious: to see if there's a propensity for one channel
over another or what the preferred format might be. The more intuitive stance to take would be to
interact with our associated audiences based on data-driven activities and preferences. What
harm could come from that?

Programmatic Buying Rises, But Display Ads Decline
by Laurie Sullivan, Jul 24, 2013
The rise in programmatic buying continues to drive the decline in premium display ad sales,
according to an analyst report published Tuesday. The findings cite Yahoo's weak operating
results and commentary by CEO Marissa Mayer during the company's Q2 2013 earnings report.
"Our display business has felt some negative impact, particularly due to the shifts around
programmatic buying," Mayer said during the call with analysts and investors, citing issues around
premium sell-through rate as opposed to non-guaranteed and with pricing in the exchange. "We
need to do a much better job here in order to reverse these trends."
Yahoo's plan to "fix it" might not work, given the problem digs deeper into a morphing display ad
industry. Pivotal Analyst Brian Wieser believes online display advertising remains a "structurally
weak business for most media owners." In the lengthy research report, he explains how media
owners AOL, WebMD, and other traditional publishers with large digital advertising businesses like
the New York Times Co. are exposed to negative secular trends hurting premium display
advertising that limits the prospects for organic revenue growth and more susceptible to declines.
Most publishers are experiencing "negative underlying trends" as a result of programmatic buying,
which Wieser asserts amplifies the buyer's advantage. In the coming year, he estimates that
media owners with arbitrage-based businesses like Millennial Media, and Tremor Media, operating
outside of traditional PC-based display inventory could experience the same impacted.

Page 20

While Wieser notes exceptions to the conclusion, he explains how industry data highlights tepid
growth for nearly every company other than Google, Facebook and a handful of others. He also
cites risks for all Web publishers as a high degree of rivalry, given an absence of barriers that will
prevent new competition, overly high and increasing capital needs, and government regulations
and consumer pushback related to management of consumer data and respect for privacy.
Can relationships save the premium display advertising biz? While programmatic buying continues
to "suck the demand" out of the market, as MediaPost Editor in Chief Joe Mandese describes it at
the OMMA Premium Display conference in Los Angeles, Wieser notes that proving relationships
remains one strong area for publishers -- either personal or professional.
Technology will become commoditized, so relationships help the company stand out -- especially
from the sales side, said John Tuchtenhagen, vice president, group director of media, Digitas. The
relationships need to bring together publishers, brands and media agency.
Read more: http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/205165/programmatic-buying-rises-butdisplay-ads-decline.html?edition=62573#ixzz2a1FVaKDX

Facebook's Video Audience Bigger Than TV, According to Nielsen
Caitlin Rossman | August 1, 2013
A new Nielsen study commissioned by Facebook found that for certain age groups, especially
younger demographics, Facebook can contribute incremental reach to major TV networks.
The report, titled, "Running Digital Audiences, Walking Advertising Dollars," looked at the reach of
four different television networks within specific gender and age groups, during different times of
day. This was then compared to the reach of Facebook's digital network.
The results showed that TV is most effective at reaching consumers during primetime, but
Facebook has consistent reach for both daytime hours and primetime.


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The study also found that in the weekday daytime, Facebook has a higher reach than the four TV
networks for consumers under 55 years old. But during primetime, each TV network had a higher
reach than Facebook in every age group except ages 18 to 24.
For consumers ages 25 to 34, Facebook added up to an incremental 41 percent reach to the TV
networks during the daytime. For these same consumers during primetime, Facebook contributed
up to 36 percent duplicated reach to the four TV networks.
The study concludes that Facebook can be a very effective vehicle to extend brand reach,
especially among younger age groups.

The Facebook Advertising Ecosystem Explained
Business InsiderJul. 30, 2013, 11:52 AM8,069

BI Intelligence
Facebook is a daily destinations for millions and millions of consumers. Increasingly, their ad
products offer targeting according to specific demographics, social connections, interests, and
habits.
Advertising on Facebook has become more sophisticated, varied, and data-intensive. Facebook
has rolled out a spate of new ad formats in the past year and now offers at least seven major ways
to advertise.
In a new report from BI Intelligence, we analyze the state of social media advertising and where it
is heading, offering a comprehensive guide and examination of the advertising ecosystems
on Facebook and Twitter, analyzing each of their principal ad products and concepts behind them,
offer a primer on Tumblr as an emerging ad medium, and detail how mobile is an important part of
this story as mobile-friendly as native ad formats fuel growth in the market.
Here's an overview of the Facebook advertising ecosystem:
Facebook has rolled out many different ad products over the last year: Facebook now offers at
least seven major ways to advertise, including brand pages, display ads, sponsored stories (which
are being phased out), promoted posts, page post ads, mobile app install ads, and log-out screen
ads. Each of these ad products has their own benefits, but there are a handful of additional

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products and concepts that are key to understanding Facebook's advertising ecosystem,
including...
Custom Audiences: Marketers can use the offline customer data they already have to find past or
existing customers on Facebook. Then they can target these consumers on Facebook with ads.
An extension to Custom Audiences, Lookalike Audiences, uses the same data to help companies
find prospective customers on Facebook.
Partner Categories: This is another tool that helps marketers leverage offline data. Let's say you
are a mom-and-pop shop and don't have your own data to use Custom Audiences and make a
highly-targeted ad buy. Facebook offers the third-party data of a few vendors to help you find your
target audience on Facebook.
CPA: This acronym means Cost-Per-Action, which is a new pricing method Facebook introduced
last month. Instead of paying in the standard ways for per-click, or an impression basis,
advertisers can pay for a certain number of Likes, Link Clicks (these are clicks on a specific link,
not the whole ad), or Offer Claims. Along with Custom Audiences and Partner Categories, CPA is
meant to help attract performance-oriented marketers to Facebook — as opposed to brand
marketers, who often simply go for reach.
FBX: Facebook is moving steadily into the world of data-enriched, real-time digital ad
sales. Facebook Exchange or FBX is an ad exchange that allows advertisers to serve ads to users
on Facebook based on past actions they have taken online, like shop for an airline ticket.


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Media Usage On Rise Due To Multitasking
by Gavin O'Malley, Aug 1, 2013, 3:41 PM
From day to day, how much content can consumers handle? There must be a limit, but, as new
research shows, multichannel multitasking is pushing it higher than ever.
This year alone, the overall time that people spend with media each day will rise from 11 hours
and 39 minutes in 2012 to 11 hours and 52 minutes, according to new estimates from eMarketer.

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―It‘s clear that time spent with media is still increasing as a result of multitasking,‖ said Clark
Fredricksen, vice president and researcher at eMarketer.
Overall, average time spent with digital media per day is expected to surpass TV viewing time for
the first time this year. The average adult will spend over 5 hours per day online, on non-voice
mobile activities or with other digital media this year, eMarketer estimates -- compared to 4 hours
and 31 minutes watching television.
Thanks to mobile, daily TV time will actually be down slightly this year, while digital media
consumption will be up 15.8%. Time spent with mobile has come to represent a little more than
half of TV‘s share of total media time, as well as more than half of digital media time as a whole,
eMarketer finds.
―The continued adoption and increasing time spent using portable devices like smartphone and
tablets, which are easily used while also consuming TV or radio, supports the idea of continued
increases in multitasking,‖ Fredricksen explained.
But how much content can consumers take? No one knows for sure, but, said Fredricksen, ―it
would be a surprise if [increases in overall media consumption] didn‘t continue into next year.‖
―Still, the growth in overall time spent with media is not as fast as last year, so there may be a
threshold for consumers‘ multitasking ability,‖ Fredricksen added. ―At this point, consumers are
shifting behavior across devices so quickly that it‘s difficult to say when we‘ll reach an equilibrium
state.‖
The bulk of mobile time is spent on smartphones -- at 1 hour and 7 minutes per day -- but tablets
are not far behind. Feature phones account for relatively little time spent on non-voice mobile
activities, since few have robust mobile internet capabilities.
To develop its time-spent with media figures, eMarketer said it analyzed more than 400 data
points collected from more than 40 research institutions. As a percentage of time spent with all
media, eMarketer‘s estimate of adults‘ average time with TV is roughly in line with other firms‘ for
this year.
Temkin Group is at the low end of estimates among all adult consumers, while MagnaGlobal and
GfK figures are more similar to eMarketer‘s.
Estimates of TV time among Web users only are somewhat lower as a share of all media -- with
the exception of a USA Touchpoints data point -- suggesting Internet users may devote somewhat
less time to TV compared to online media.
2 comments on "Media Usage On Rise Due To Multitasking".
Douglas Ferguson from College of Charleston
Given that the frontal lobe cerebral cortex is a serial device, only capable of processing one thing
at a time, the multitasking argument is a ruse (or delusion). Using some pretty standard tests, I
delight in doing classroom demonstrations showing that even young college students cannot do
two things at the same time as well (or as quickly) as they can do the same tasks one at a time
sequentially.
Gordon Plutsky from King Fish Media

Page 27

I wrote about this new study, it has big implications for marketers, especially those that depend on
advertising. As Douglas points out above, it is very hard to pay attention to two things at once. I'd
surmise that that traditional ads will be ignored and skipped as consumers focus on the content
they care about. http://www.kingfishmedia.com/ThinkTank/bid/98097/Turning-Point-for-MediaDigital-tops-TV
Read more: http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/205905/media-usage-on-rise-due-tomultitasking.html?edition=62958#ixzz2cG85Hnvx

Five trends marketers can't ignore
Andrea Sophocleous
Ekaterina Walter made her name during a five-year stint as social media strategist and innovator
for Intel, the tech giant. Her achievements included building the firm's presence on social media
and serving as the driving force behind pioneering programmes like "Intel Innovators", which saw
the company engage young scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs.
In May 2013, she joined Branderatti, a marketing firm specializing in advocacy and influencer
relations, as chief marketing officer. Given her background and influence in the global tech
community, Walter's keynote presentation at ad:tech Melbourne, held in July 2013, generated a
healthy dose of chatter, as she outlined the five trends marketers shouldn't ignore in a constantlyevolving marketplace.
The power of the millennial generation
The much-maligned Generations Y and Z now make up 50% of the world's population, but most
companies and brands don't know how to talk to them, according to Walter. Unlike previous
generations that stuck with brands they know, "millennials" can tap in to unlimited sources of
information to make buying decisions, and regularly switch between competing brands.
"As marketers, we have no idea how to market to this generation, because we are so used to
doing things a certain way," Walker said. "Digital natives are an absolutely different generation.
They're sophisticated; they're educated; they're global; they know no limits. And they have a high
BS radar. So they know when you're not being authentic."
Walter described millennials as the "chief technology officers" in their households. "They influence
the buying decisions of a lot of baby boomers and the younger generations around them," she
said.
With 1.7 billion millennials around the world – and 20.5% of Australia's population under the age of
30 years old – marketers must become better at talking to their future customers. "Their collective
buying power is growing … and they are making more money than other generations," Walter
said.
She then cited a number of findings from various studies to paint a picture of Generations Y and Z.
Peer influence is twice as important as advertising: 62% of the decisions millennials make are
influenced by their social circle.
Cause marketing works: if a brand doesn't have a history that shows it is responsible, young
shoppers are not going to engage with it.

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Market with them, not to them: crowdsourcing and elements of co-creation should not be ignored.
Allowing the youth audience to express themselves is essential. Walter pointed to the success of
Intel's "Museum of me" as an example of effective personalisation.
They're stimulation junkies: target millennials by evoking happiness, adrenaline-provoking thrills
and positive surprises, offline as well as online.
Help them succeed: as an entrepreneurial generation, millennials respond well to programs that
help them prosper. "Intel Innovators" did that by creating an online platform where 18-24-year-olds
could share their business ideas, receive real-time feedback and gain votes to win $100,000 in
funding for their start-up.
The convergence of paid, owned and earned media
Brands need to integrate paid, owned and earned media for a bigger impact, Walter told the
ad:tech audience. Social media platforms like Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter are now paid,
owned and earned media all at the same time, so brands need a similar convergence of "mindsets
and departments".
"Integration needs to go way beyond 'we leave it to chance'. It needs to happen first," Walter said.
"There also needs to be a convergence of tools and analytics, and that's the biggest problem. Our
whole industry is so fragmented. If you look at how I measure ROI for all my efforts across digital, I
probably used, at Intel, about ten to 15 tools to do that. We need to look at new ways to measure
what's important to our brand and that will create a holistic story."
Furthermore, Walter argued, data show that combining social media with PR delivers greater ROI.
"Earned media is not enough. Brands must leverage paid and owned to drive sales," she said.
Real-time marketing
Walter argued that while everything now happens in real time, big advertisers still tend to plan their
paid media schedules a year ahead, without factoring in more rapid responses.
"Real-time marketing is becoming either a really good advantage for you or a big challenge for you
as a brand," she said. "To be effective, you have to have a sense of urgency, you have to produce
content on the fly. Gone are the days that it's going to take you six months, even six weeks, to
produce a TV spot. You have to react immediately."
Operating in a real-time environment affect a company's brand strategy, content marketing efforts,
media optimisation, customer service and even product development, Walter said. Brands must,
therefore, engage in social listening through command centres, and empower their employees and
agencies to respond quickly. Having a flexible budget with in-built room for real-time responses is
equally vital. "You need to think and operate like a publisher," she said.
One example of this is a conversation sparked by a Twitter user who tweeted: "Saw a bird had
crapped on a Smart Car. Totaled it." In response, smart USA tweeted back an infographic showing
that it would take a combination of 4.5 million pigeon poops, 360,000 turkey poops and 45,000
emu poops to "total" one of its vehicle, sparking digital chatter and positive sentiment in the
process.


Page 29

smart USA's response on Twitter
The rise of visual marketing
The rise of visual social media is one of the most significant current trends, according to Walter.
"Here's why," she said. "The amount of information that is being created every 48 hours today is
the same amount of information that was created from the beginning of time until 2003."
This explosion of information favours visual and video content, Walter said. And images transcend
cultures and languages – an essential consideration for global brands. "Today's storytelling
requires visual storytelling. You need to recalibrate your content strategy to include visuals," she
added.
Walter cited data from Facebook showing that photos and videos drive the most engagement on
brand pages, measured in comments and shares, with timely visuals, such as a picture of flowers
on Valentine's Day, delivering 90% higher engagement than text updates.
She also singled out Pinterest, saying it "is one of the best traffic drivers and one of the best
sources for making a decision on which brands to buy." Intel covered this area with its popular
"Fan love" board, where it "pins" images created by fans.


Page 30

Intel's "Fan love" board on Pinterest
The age of advocacy
Walter's final trend addressed the issue of advocacy, where brands build relationships with "a
smaller number of people, but in more meaningful ways".
"Because we live in the age of 'infobesity', people are looking for additional filters," she said. "Not
only content filters, but personal filters. And the best personal filter is the person who used that
product, who used that service before, and they tell you about it. It is all about advocacy. Right
now, advocacy is the new influence."
If something bad happens to your brand, advocates will stick up for it, said Walter. "They will be a
huge marketing tool and crisis-management wall for you," she continued, using as an example an
incident three years ago when Intel's website was hacked, but its fans stuck by it.
"If you get your brand to that level of protectiveness and advocacy, you don't need a tonne of
money for marketing. You don't need to reach out to consumers. They will bring them to you,"
Walter said.
Chief marketing officers should see building a community of advocates as a top priority, Walters
concluded. "We need to start building movements. We need to stop creating campaigns and shortterm buzz. Do you want sustainable brand love? Do you want people to bond with your brand, or
do you not?" she asked, without needing to wait for an answer.
About the author
Andrea Sophocleous is a freelance journalist. She can be contacted
at andrea.sophocleous@gmail.com.
Read more at http://www.warc.com/Content/ContentViewer.aspx?ID=f7127a2f-ef0d-4669-b530ec4bb6df9cf3&utm_source=WarcEditor&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=WarcEditor2013080
5&ID=f7127a2f-ef0d-4669-b530-ec4bb6df9cf3&MasterContentRef=f7127a2f-ef0d-4669-b530ec4bb6df9cf3&GUserID=aa148723-89af-4adc-96d5-9df296627143#L4XU4Q3PpL6e65U8.99


Page 31

Infographic: Data-Driven Marketing Is Heating Up
Adotas | Aug 2, 2013
ADOTAS – BlueKai recently released its second Data Impact Report, which revealed that brands
are dramatically increasing their reliance on data to power their marketing efforts. According to the
new study, 36% of respondents indicated that at least a fifth of their marketing budgets were ―datadriven‖ vs. only 11% cited in the company‘s report in December 2012, showing a staggering 227%
increase over the last 6 months. This shows a rapid and dramatic increase in the power of data to
drive results across more than just display targeting. Furthermore, many marketers were seeing
positive impact from data-driven initiatives including an increase in performance, interaction and
media efficiency.
The full report is available for download at www.bluekai.com/dataimpact.


Page 32


Page 33

The Truth About Tracking Consumers Across Devices
Joshua Koran Thu, 01 Aug 2013 10:00:00 -0400
As mobile advertising dollars race to catch up with consumers' evolving behavior, a number of
startups have emerged with a tempting proposition: target the same user across both his mobile
and desktop devices. It sounds logical: one core driver of advertising performance is frequency of

Page 34

exposure, so increasing this frequency across devices should help. After all, a consumer doesn't
undergo a change of identity when he closes his laptop and opens his smartphone, right?
Yes, but it's not that simple. Consumers do exhibit different mindsets and behaviors as they use
different devices. Though a person remains the same person as he watches prime-time TV,
searches for a product on Amazon or checks his Facebook feed, he has a different level of
receptivity to advertising in each of these contexts. We can't effectively use cross-device
advertising without taking this into account.
From a retention standpoint, it sounds intriguing to be able to identify the same consumer as he
navigates from one device to another. Sending the wrong catalog to someone's house is very
expensive. Accordingly, customer-relationship management uses purchase data and other
information to improve return by cross-selling or upselling to identifiable customers across multiple
channels (voice/call centers, in-person/customer service, digital/email and print/direct mail).
Retention and win-back marketing tactics personalize different offers to high and low-value
customers. This may require identifying the same customers across multiple devices, often with
personally identifiable information.
On the other hand, acquisition marketing relies primarily on anonymous identifiers to attract new
customers (since by definition these consumers don't yet have a relationship with the advertiser)
and does not require identifying the same user across multiple devices. The only reason such a
technical feat would be useful is if it drove down acquisition-marketing costs. However, since the
reach is diminished and the cost increases with the technologies that try to stitch the same user
across multiple devices, marketers should treat this new tactic with caution, beyond any concerns
with privacy.
Tracking device-to-device activity for the same individual means you'll have to limit the size of the
targeting pool to the specific audience that you can trace across these multiple channels (PC,
smartphone, tablet, TV, radio or out-of-home). Imagine the Venn diagram showing the overlapping
audience holding those devices. And imagine the smaller and smaller subset of those individuals
who fall into the middle. Since there are techniques to target the people who closely resemble the
very same people on all these devices -- but with a much wider net -- why pay more to reach far
fewer?
Furthermore, much ad spending would be wasted using cross-device tracking to send a similar
message to someone whose attention is very different, depending on which device he's using and
his current activity.
Given relatively low call-to-action response rates on acquisition marketing, it stands to reason that
the optimal approach would be to target advertising at a wide array of those who best reflect
clearly observed behavior and interests that would most resonate with the advertiser's products
and services.
To target consumers across devices, it is important to evaluate whether the reach and ROI of
tactics are being applied to the right marketing goals. Because of limitations and privacy
implications, tracking the same individual across devices is best for retention marketing.
Acquisition marketing can benefit from cross-device analytics and planning. However, given the
different mindset with use of each device, and the huge number of consumers targeted by
acquisition marketing, the best approach is to take advantage of the channel-specific targeting
abilities of each device rather than trying to cobble together techniques to find the same user on
each of his devices. Marketers should use techniques to analyze all of the channels at their
disposal – and not be singularly focused on trying to connect the mobile and desktop experiences.
Comments (5)

Page 35

By: Fred Ackourey Sun, 04 Aug 2013 22:03 EDT
Your last paragraph sums it up nicely Joshua, "Marketers should use techniques to analyze all of
the channels at their disposal". The most effective marketing today is cross-channel where content
and messaging are "harmonized" to increase revenue and reduce conversion costs. This blog post
spells this out in a simple and understandable way.
http://ecommunism.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/digital-marketing-a-multichannel-approach-theinternet-is-your-funnel/
By: Anna Gunnerman Fri, 02 Aug 2013 09:42 EDT
By: Brehndan Botha Fri, 02 Aug 2013 02:52 EDT
If the marketing strategy is incisive and targeted, there would be a clear point of optimal
connection. There is a big strategic difference between recency and engagement and one
campaign shouldn't try to do both off the same audience base.

Which is Better for Agency Talent -- Giant Holding Companies or
Independent Shops?
David Armano Thu, 01 Aug 2013 12:00:00 -0400
The mega-merger between two already-giant agency holding companies, Publicis Groupe and
Omnicom Group , is swelling the support for independent shops. Agencies that don't answer to
multinational holding companies are more agile, the argument goes. They can be more creative,
move more quickly and display more entrepreneurial spirit. So they're clearly better places for
talent, right?
Having worked on both sides, though, I can tell you that one mode is not better than the other.
They are just different.
I have spent approximately half my career working under the banners of Publicis and Omnicom,
and more recently have had the experience of working at Edelman , a global but independent
company.
I started at the now defunct Agency.com in 2000 at the height of the dot-com bubble. Three years
later Omnicom bought us. In spite of a lot of hype and its share of negative headlines, Agency.com
had some really smart and innovative people working there. One of my colleagues there, Charles
Adler, even went on to co-found Kickstarter -- you don't get much smarter or talented than that.
So why did I leave? Something ultimately seemed different. We had stopped innovating and we
weren't winning like we used to. And there was a slow but steady drain on the talent. One day, you
looked around and realized that the people who really made you think or want to push yourself to
the limits weren't there anymore.
Did Omnicom kill Agency.com? It was likely a combination of things, but my guess is that
Omnicom tried to make Agency.com a more fiscally viable business and, in the process,
something else gave. After nearly six years, it was time for me to try something else.
I then went to Digitas -- a shop I kept hearing wanted to build its talent. It was the challenge I was
looking for. I grew in new ways. And then Publicis Groupe, a holding company in a similar vein of
Omnicom, struck a deal in December 2006 to buy the agency for $1.3 billion. I wondered to myself
if it was going to be deja vu.

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