Slides for my presentation: thinking strategically about the future of education and technology.

3. Communities
of practice
Research
Joint projects
Outreach

4. Network
platform: events
f2f/online
Partnerships
Translation

9.  Extraordinary political or economic event
 Technology breakthrough (ex: AI, unrest)

10. Multiple
sources
Should be
longitudinal

11. Social
networks
Iterated
resource
feeds
Scanner
contributes
content

13. Next 20 years?
Screening
Interacting
Sharing
Flowing
Accessing
Generating
-Kevin Kelly
Pattern recognition:
Deductions from
scanning

15.  More Asian liberal
arts campuses
 State university
gaming company
 Social media growth
continues
 "Generation Screwed"
vs seniors online
 Microsoft tablet
 Google US-sources
hardware
 More Asian than
Hispanic immigrants
 Certification rising
 New OLI use cases
 Kickstarter continues
to grow
 One R1 tries to cut
libraries down
 Academic unions crit
distance learning
July 2012 scan sample

16.  British MOOC
enterprise
 The United States
birthrate fell to its
lowest level since
1920
 student-library
disconnection
 academic social
media use cases
 cloud computing
price war
 printer sales stagnate
 Android dominates
smartphones
 3d printing in
Staples
 adjunct union
organization
 enrolled
undergraduates
declineJanuary 2013 scan sample

17.  Social media
 Cloud computing
 Mobile ecosystem
 AR
 Wearables
 Ebooks
 Gaming
 3d printing
Generational
divides
Outsourcing
vs onshoring

18.  MOOC
boomtime
 Faculty (and
union) resistance
 Maker
movement
 badges
 Demographics:
race and youth
 Adjunctification
 Total enrollment
decline
 Grad program
bubbles

19. Assemble
experts
Probe for
opinions
Rank and
distill ideas
Reiterate

20. Time-to-Adoption Horizon:
One Year or Less
Massively Open Online
Courses
Tablet Computing

21. Time-to-Adoption Horizon:
Two to Three Years
Big Data and Learning
Analytics
Game-Based Learning

22. Time-to-Adoption
Horizon: Four to Five Years
3D Printing
Wearable Technology

23.  Propositions in time  Shares to be traded

25.  Quant. + Qual.
 Affordances of
play
 Continuous
 Distributed
feedback

26. Stories about futures
 Event and response
 Creativity
 Roles and times
 Emergent practices and
patterns

27. Integrate previous methods:
Select drivers – environmental
scan
Identify trends – Delphi reports
Test trends - extrapolation
Test propositions – prediction
markets

28. Mark Weiser, 1988ff
 Example: "The Computer for
the Twenty-First Century"
(1991)
“The most profound technologies are
those that disappear. They weave
themselves into the fabric of
everyday life until they are
indistinguishable from it.”

31. First, the light stuff
 Museum tours
 GPS navigators (Garmin)
 Location services (Yelp)

34. Search
the
world

35. Multimedia lives here

36. AR art

37. Gartner: end of the
mouse
Touch screen (iOS)
Handhelds (Wii)
Nothing (Kinect)

39. Median age of gamers shoots past
35
Industry size comparable to music
Impacts on hardware, software,
interfaces, other industries
Large and growing diversity of
platforms, topics, genres, niches,
players

40. Anecdata: number
of Facebook
CityVille players:
(as of July 2012, http://www.appdata.com/?AFB_redir=1 )
23,900,000

41. Games
serious,
public, and
political
• Oiligarchy, Molle Industries
• Jetset, Persuasive Games
• The Great Shakeout, California
• DimensionM, Tabula Digita

45. Imperial
gamification

46. (political
and
mundane)

47. Use games to impact
society

48. 1. Phantom Learning
2. Open world
3. The Lost Decade
4. The Serpent Digests a
Very Large Mammal
5. Renaissance

49. Post-tsunami
Schools are rare
and distant
Information is
plentiful and
nearby

50. http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/files/TermEnrollmentReport-Spring2013.pdf

51. Information on demand
Instructors, peers “ “
Grading outsourced
Multimedia: social,
personalized

52. Institutions
Function: content
supplements
Faculty: adjunct rōnin
Accreditation: online,
multiple, display-based

53. Institutions
Library: media
production camp
Professional
development: via social
media

54. Students spent more time in K-12
with online classes than face-to-
face ones
K-12 as social center, working
parent support spaces
Libraries are software
Buildings without AR look naked

56. No good categorical name:
…which sometimes
indicates the future

57. Open
content,
open access,
open source
• Very Web-centric

58. Global conversations
increase, filter bubble pops
More access, more
information
Lots of creativity

59. Information prices drop
Faculty creativity, flexibility
grow
IT “ “ “
Academic content
unleashed on the world

60. Industries collapse
Authorship mysterious
Some low quality tech
(videoconf.)
Some higher costs
More malware + less privacy

61. Tech challenges
Outsourcing and offshoring
PLE beats LMS
Crowdsourcing faculty work
Information literacy central

62. Internet has always been
open
Web <> money
Online identity has always
been fictional, playful

68. Media
battles

70. Higher education landscape:
Two Cultures redux: STEM vs
New Left
Adjunct faculty 95%
Public institutions’ shrunken
footprints
Scholarly publication 1/3rd 2000
level

71. Higher education landscape:
Accreditation: the source
of closures
Libraries: rare and/or
smaller
Professional development:
distance, DiY

72.  Great Recession began in 1st grade
 One or more family members unemployed
 “ “ “ “ “ underemployed
 Public education has always been stretched
to breaking point/poor
 Public-private gap even wider
 Online learning can beat their schools
 “Library” denotes digital collection

74.  Economic growth returns to US
(energy, medical, nanotech vs world)
 17-22-year-old niche revitalized (K-12
failure)
 Full-time faculty stabilize (AAUP-ALA
strike)
 Digital tech firewalled from class (i.e.,
tv + film)

75. Higher education landscape:
Supplemental rather than
transformative tech
Logistical instead of pedagogical
tech
Academics include tech in old
structures (classes, publication)
Reconfigured to protect IP

76. 18-year-olds were .ppt
proficient by 5th grade
Schools <> digital life
They find their parents’
recollections of life before
the web are oddly charming

78.  Economic growth returns to US
(energy, medical, nanotech vs world)
 17-22-year-old niche revitalized (K-12
failure)
 Full-time faculty stabilize (AAUP-ALA
strike)
 Digital tech firewalled from class (i.e.,
tv + film)

79. Higher education landscape:
Supplemental rather than
transformative tech
Logistical instead of pedagogical
tech
Academics include tech in old
structures (classes, publication)
Reconfigured to protect IP

80. 18-year-olds were .ppt
proficient by 5th grade
Schools <> digital life
They find their parents’
recollections of life before
the web are oddly charming

86. Gaming
world

87. Classroom and courses
 Curriculum content
 Delivery mechanism
 Creating games
Peacemaker,
Impact Games
Revolution (via
Jason Mittell)

88. •Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds,
Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005)
•Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies
(Sage, 2008)
•Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third
Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives
(MIT, 2009)

90. Changes in hardware,
software
Part of undergraduate life
Learning content, both
informal and formal
Career paths

91. Higher education landscape:
Accreditation: drives project-based,
studio-style pedagogy
Libraries: gaming production,
archiving
Professional development: distance,
DiY
Faculty multimedia production is the
norm

92. Elsewhere in the world:
War on IP rages
Nostalgia waves for old
media
Competing storytelling
schools

93. Most students identified with
one+ game characters in K-12
Leading game developers are as
well known as movie directors
Most of their work and school is
gamified

94. 1. Phantom Learning
2. Open world
3. The Lost Decade
4. The Serpent Digests a
Very Large Mammal
5. Renaissance

95. Renaissance: youth already
there
“ : technology beyond
borders
Serpent: faculty resistance

96. Serpent : corporate
power, manipulation of
laws too strong
Ren: small number of
people leading

97. Social division, stratification -
>technological divide (social
blocking, self-blocking)
Tech leapfrogging
Tech for fun, not material life

98. Persistence of teachers
Multitasking
New creativity might not lead
to jobs, esp given economy
based on old paradigms

99. New creativity might not lead
to jobs, esp given economy
based on old paradigms
Open content: a cademic
content not sought after

100. NITLE
http://nitle.org
NITLE prediction markets game
http://markets.nitle.org/
Bryan on Twitter
http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander