Dr. Larry Swanson

Trends and Factors AffectingTrends and Factors Affecting
Economies and Business SuccessEconomies and Business Success
in Western Montanain Western Montana
Dr. Larry SwansonDr. Larry Swanson
O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain WestO’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West
The University of MontanaThe University of Montana
Status of Economic Recovery
Population Growth and Aging
Recent and Future Job Growth Patterns
Positioning for Growth and Change
Montana Business Success ForumMontana Business Success Forum
Missoula, MT, May, 2013Missoula, MT, May, 2013

Unemployment Rates
for Montana vs. the
U.S. as a whole
The chart shows monthly
unemployment rates for
Montana versus nationally over
a very long period covering the
‘80s, ‘90s, and since 2000. The
nation seems to experience a
major recession, or economic
slowdown, about every ten
years. The current one officially
started in December of 2007.
Unemployment nationally hit a
peak in October of 2009 when it
reached 10.0%. It has been
ratcheting down since and fell to
as low as 7.5% in April of 2013,
which is the most recent data.
Unemployment in Montana has
consistently remained below
national unemployment and
reached a peak of 6.8% in July of
2010 where it remained for
several months. It was 6.7% in
August of 2011. The last time
Montana had unemployment
this high was in the late ‘80s.
More recently unemployment in
Montana has been falling, and
was 5.6% in March, 2013, a full
two percentage points lower
than nationally.
Based upon monthly unemployment data, there is evidence of slow economic recovery nationally since
late in 2009. While unemployment in Montana has remained consistently below the nation, the rate of
unemployment has been steadily falling since late in 2011. So, unemployment in Montana has stayed
well below the unemployment rate nationally and recovery is well established.
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Over Time: MT vs. U.S., 1980-2013 (Mar.)
'82.12
'92.6
'03.6
'07.5
'09.10
'11.8
'83.3
'07.3
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
'80.1'80.10'81.7'82.4'83.1'83.10'84.7'85.4'86.1'86.10'87.7'88.4'89.1'89.10'90.7'91.4'92.1'92.10'93.7'94.4'95.1'95.10'96.7'97.4'98.1'98.10'99.7'00.4'01.1'01.10'02.7'03.4'04.1'04.10'05.7'06.4'07.1'07.10'08.7'09.4'10.1'10.10'11.7'12.4'13.1
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S.
MT

Month-to-Month Change
in Employment Levels
Nationally and in
Montana
The top chart shows monthly
change in non-farm employment
across the U.S. since the beginning
of 2006 – about a five-year period.
The lower chart shows the same
data for Montana.
The slowdown in the economy
nationally revealed itself as a trough
in employment change over a
period from about May of 2008
through December of 2009. The
recovery can be seen as beginning
with employment growth in January
of 2010. This employment growth
has largely continued since,
although there have been months
where employment nationwide
dipped once again. Employment
change in Montana is shown in the
lower chart. State employment
decline began early in 2008 and
continued through 2009. Recovery
began early in 2010, but this
recovery can be seen as “fragile,”
and monthly growth in employment
is not assured, as occurred in more
recent months.
U.S. Monthly Employment Change, Seasonally Adjusted, 2006-2013 (April)(thous)
'07.11
'13.4
'12.9
'10.4
'09.11
'09.1
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
'06.1
'06.4
'06.7'06.10
'07.1
'07.4
'07.7'07.10
'08.1
'08.4
'08.7'08.10
'09.1
'09.4
'09.7'09.10
'10.1
'10.4
'10.7'10.10
'11.1
'11.4
'11.7'11.10
'12.1
'12.4
'12.7'12.10
'13.1
'13.4
Montana Monthly Change in Seasonally Adjusted Employment, 2006 - 2013 (Mar.)
'13.1
'11.5
'10.2
'07.11
'06.12 '11.11
'11.7
'08.6
'09.10
'09.1-3,300
-2,200
-1,100
0
1,100
2,200
'06.1
'06.4
'06.7'06.10
'07.1
'07.4
'07.7'07.10
'08.1
'08.4
'08.7'08.10
'09.1
'09.4
'09.7'09.10
'10.1
'10.4
'10.7'10.10
'11.1
'11.4
'11.7'11.10
'12.1
'12.4
'12.7'12.10
'13.1
'13.4

Trends in Quarterly
Growth in Personal
Income in Montana and
Nationwide
Another way of gauging conditions
in the economy as a whole is by
viewing quarter-to-quarter changes
in total personal income. The chart
at the right shows percentage
changes in nominal income for both
the U.S. and Montana from 2002
through the 4th
quarter of 2012 (the
most recent data nationally).
Here it is easy to see the impact on
income growth that resulted in the
most recent economic slowdown.
Personal income tends to grow
nationally at about one to two
percent a quarter (nominal growth),
when the economy is functioning
well. In some particularly good
quarters, it can even grow as fast as
3% - which it did nationally in the
first quarter of 2008.
However, after that time, income
growth plunged into negative
territory and this slide bottomed out
in the first quarter of 2009.
Quarter-to-Quarter Personal Income Change, Montana vs. US, 2002 - 2012 (4th Q)
2012.4
2011.2
2010.1
2008.2
2009.1
2008.1
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2002.2
2002.3
2002.4
2003.1
2003.2
2003.3
2003.4
2004.1
2004.2
2004.3
2004.4
2005.1
2005.2
2005.3
2005.4
2006.1
2006.2
2006.3
2006.4
2007.1
2007.2
2007.3
2007.4
2008.1
2008.2
2008.3
2008.4
2009.1
2009.2
2009.3
2009.4
2010.1
2010.2
2010.3
2010.4
2011.1
2011.2
2011.3
2011.4
2012.1
2012.2
2012.3
2012.4
2013.1
2013.2
Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce (nominal change)
U.S.
Montana
While income growth nationally and in Montana is once again positive. This growth remains uncertain
on a quarter-by-quarter basis. Economy recovery is occurring, but it is fragile, particularly when viewing
income change.

Unemployment Rates
among Rocky Mountain
West States
This chart shows unemployment
rates, seasonally adjusted, for
Montana and the U.S. as a whole in
relation to other states in the Rocky
Mountain West, including Colorado,
Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming.
All states in the region have
followed the general trend in
unemployment that has been
occurring nationally. The
unemployment rate rose to higher
levels that other RMW states,
approaching that of the nation as a
whole. Unemployment in Montana,
Wyoming, and Utah has been lower
than that of both Colorado and
Idaho.
In the last year or more,
unemployment has been falling
fairly markedly in all of the RMW
states. So, there is general
improvement in the unemployment
picture nationally and regionally. In
2007 prior to the national recession,
unemployment in Utah, Wyoming,
and Idaho had fallen below 3.0%.
This is very low unemployment and
could return in the next two to
three years.
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Among Rocky Mountain West States, 1980-2013 (Mar.)
'09.10
'07.3
'00.11
'92.6
'89.3
'82.12
'03.7
'07.4
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
'80.1'80.10'81.7'82.4'83.1'83.10'84.7'85.4'86.1'86.10'87.7'88.4'89.1'89.10'90.7'91.4'92.1'92.10'93.7'94.4'95.1'95.10'96.7'97.4'98.1'98.10'99.7'00.4'01.1'01.10'02.7'03.4'04.1'04.10'05.7'06.4'07.1'07.10'08.7'09.4'10.1'10.10'11.7'12.4'13.1
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. MT WY
ID CO UT

Regional and Sub-
Regional Patterns in
U.S. Unemployment
The maps show varying levels
of unemployment across the
United States. The top map
shows county-level
unemployment prior to the
economic slowdown, which
began in 2007 (July, 2006).
The lower map shows
unemployment in October of
2009 when unemployment
nationally peaked at around
10%. In 2006 Montana and
its surrounding region had
fairly tight labor markets and
low unemployment rates. It
was a time when wage and
salary rates had begun to rise
more rapidly in Montana than
nationally. As the recession
deepened in 2008 and 2009,
unemployment deepened and
spread. Unemployment rates
in the central and northern
Plains region have been the
lowest throughout.
July, 2006
October, 2009

Unemployment Trends in
Missoula & Ravalli Cos.,
1992 – 2013
The top chart shows monthly totals
of the number of persons
unemployed in both Missoula and
Ravalli Counties over time. In both
counties, unemployment reached its
lowest level in September of 2006
and then increased to hit peaks in
January of 2011. Unemployment
has been gradually working its way
down since then, but remains high.
The lower chart shows
unemployment rates for both of
these counties. Unemployment in
Ravalli County rose to as high as
11% in January of 2011. More
recently it was just above 8%.
In Missoula County, the
unemployment rate never rose as
high as 8% and is now at around 6%.
Total Unemployment, Missoula Co., 1992 - 2013 (March)
'06.9
'11.1
'06.9
'11.1
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
'92.5
'93.2
'93.11
'94.8
'95.5
'96.2
'96.11
'97.8
'98.5
'99.2
'99.11
'00.8
'01.5
'02.2
'02.11
'03.8
'04.5
'05.2
'05.11
'06.8
'07.5
'08.2
'08.11
'09.8
'10.5
'11.2
'11.11
'12.8
Missoula
Ravalli
Monthly Unemployment Rate, Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1992-2013
'11.1
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
'92.5
'93.2
'93.11
'94.8
'95.5
'96.2
'96.11
'97.8
'98.5
'99.2
'99.11
'00.8
'01.5
'02.2
'02.11
'03.8
'04.5
'05.2
'05.11
'06.8
'07.5
'08.2
'08.11
'09.8
'10.5
'11.2
'11.11
'12.8
Missoula
Ravalli

Labor Force and
Employment Growth in
Missoula & Ravalli Cos.,
1992 to 2013
The top chart shows month-to-
month change in the total number
of persons in the labor force of
Missoula County and the total
number of these that were
employed. The lower chart shows
the same information for Ravalli
County.
Both counties experienced almost
uninterrupted labor force and
employment growth from the early
‘90s until the recent recession,
which hit Missoula County in
November of 2008 and hit Ravalli
County in June of the same year.
Employment then slumped in both
counties until stabilizing in 2010.
While employment is now growing
again in Missoula County, Ravalli
County employment growth
remains slow.
Missoula Co. Labor Force & Employment, 1992-2013
'08.11
'09.1
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
'92.5
92.12
'93.7
'94.2
'94.9
'95.4
'95.11
'96.6
'97.1
'97.8
'98.3
'98.10
'99.5
'99.12
'00.7
'01.2
'01.9
'02.4
'02.11
'03.6
'04.1
'04.8
'05.3
'05.10
'06.5
'06.12
'07.7
'08.2
'08.9
'09.4
'09.11
'10.6
'11.1
'11.8
'12.3
'12.10
Labor Force
Employed
Ravalli Co. Labor Force & Employment, 1992-2013 (Mar.)
'08.6
'09.2
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
'92.5
'93.1
'93.9
'94.5
'95.1
'95.9
'96.5
'97.1
'97.9
'98.5
'99.1
'99.9
'00.5
'01.1
'01.9
'02.5
'03.1
'03.9
'04.5
'05.1
'05.9
'06.5
'07.1
'07.9
'08.5
'09.1
'09.9
'10.5
'11.1
'11.9
'12.5
'13.1
Labor Force
Employed

Employment Growth
among U.S. States,
1998 to 2008
This chart compares the
relative rate of growth in
employment among all states
during this recent ten-year
period.
Nationally, total employment
grew by 14.7% between 1998
and 2008, keeping in mind that
the national economic
recession officially began in
December, 2007.
Employment grew by 21.4% in
Montana during this period,
ranking it 8th
among all states
in employment growth.
Employment growth among all
five of the Rocky Mountain
West states was fairly strong
during this period. In fact all
five states ranked among the
top ten in employment growth.
Percentage Growth in Total Employment (All Jobs) among States, 1998 to 2008
14.7%
20.3%
21.4%
28.0%
29.3%
30.1%
44.8%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Michigan
Ohio
Indiana
WestVirginia
Mississippi
Illinois
Iowa
Missouri
Kansas
Massachusett
Kentucky
Arkansas
Nebraska
Louisiana
Wisconsin
RhodeIsland
Pennsylvania
Alabama
Tennessee
Minnesota
Connecticut
Maine
Oklahoma
Vermont
NewYork
NorthDakota
California
US
SouthDakota
Delaware
NewJersey
Oregon
NewHampshire
Dist of Colum
NorthCarolina
SouthCarolina
Virginia
Maryland
Hawaii
Washington
Alaska
NewMexico
Colorado
Georgia
Montana
Texas
Florida
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah
Arizona
Nevada

Labor Force Expansion Patterns Nationwide

Areas of Rapid
Population
Growth or
Decline
The maps show the larger
patterns of population
growth in the last two
decades. Growth in
Montana is heavily
focused in the west, but
growth in the larger region
has slowed in the more
recent decade and
concentrated.

Population Trends Over
Time in Missoula and
Ravalli Counties
The population of Missoula County
in July, 2011, is estimated at
110,138. This is up from 109,443 in
2010 (gain of 695) which was up
from 108,717 in 2009 (gain of 726).
Ravalli County’s 2011 estimate is
40,450, up only slightly from 40,343
in 20101 (gain of 107) which was up
from 39,956 in 2009 (gain of 387).
In both counties, growth was
relatively strong in the ‘70s, slowed
and flattened in the ‘80s, and then
strong again in the ‘90s. Between
2000 and 2011, the rate of growth
slowed considerably. Annual
percentage growth in the counties is
shown in the lower chart.
Annual population growth in
Missoula County was 1.5% in 2008,
but each year since has been less
than one percent. It should range
from .5 to 1.0% a year over the next
five years. Ravalli County is likely to
grow at a similar annual rate.
Total Population Over Time, Missoula & Ravalli Counties, 1969 - 2011
110,138
58,472
76,352
93,151
77,995
40,450
34,041
25,06824,426
14,543
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
'69
'71
'73
'75
'77
'79
'81
'83
'85
'87
'89
'91
'93
'95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
'11
Missoula
Ravalli
Yearly Percentage Pop. Change in Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1970 - 2011
2.0%
'78, 7.0%
'94, 5.9%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
'70
'72
'74
'76
'78
'80
'82
'84
'86
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
Missoula Ravalli

Population Growth in
Missoula and Ravalli
Counties Over Time in
Relation to Growth
Statewide in Montana
This chart show annual percentage
change in the total populations of
Ravalli and Missoula Counties in
comparison to growth by Montana
as a whole.
In most years, population growth in
the two counties greatly exceeds
growth statewide, with most of
Montana’s population growth
occurring in the western mountain
region.
Annual % Population Change: MT vs. Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1980 - 2011
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
'81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Source: U.S. Census Bureau July 1 Estimates
Missoula Ravalli .Montana

Area Population
Distribution in
Montana and the
Larger Region:
2010
This map shows population
mapped at the Census
“block” level using 2010
Census data. In 2010
approximately 78% of
Montanans lived within 50
miles of the state’s seven
largest cities or urban
centers, up from 73% in
2000.
Going forward, population
growth will continue to
concentrated near these
centers and economic and
employment growth in
Montana will be
increasingly “urban in
character.”

Population
within 50 Miles
of Major Cities in
2000
At the time of the 2000
Census, Montana had a
population of about
902,000 people. The
map shows the
distribution of this
population in Montana
and surrounding areas.
Of the 902,000 state
residents, a little over
670,000 lived within 50
miles of Montana’s
seven largest cities or
urban centers,
including Billings
(142,000), Missoula
(141,000), Kalispell
(95,000), Great Falls
(87,000), Bozeman
(83,000), Helena
(68,000), and Butte
(67,000). This largely
“urban-based
population”
represented about 74%
of Montana’s entire
population state-wide.

Area Population
Distribution in
Montana and the
Larger Region:
2010

This map shows population
mapped at the Census
“block” level using 2010
Census data. In 2010
approximately 78% of
Montanans lived within 50
miles of the state’s seven
largest cities or urban
centers, up from 73% in
2000.

Going forward, population
growth will continue to
concentrated near these
centers and economic and
employment growth in
Montana will be
increasingly “urban in
character.”

Population Distribution
in Montana within
Urban 50-Mile Zones
The upper chart shows the total
number of people residing within 50
miles of Montana’s seven major cities
in 2000 and ten years later in 2010. The
population within 50 miles of Billings
grew from 142,000 in 2000 to over
161,000 in 2010, an increase of almost
20,000. This area population for
Missoula grew from 140,000 to almost
160,000.
The lower chart focuses on growth in
these area populations over this recent
ten-year period with some of the
figures reduced from those in the map,
to account for areas where the circles
overlap (and double count populations
in these overlapping areas).
The Bozeman urban zone had the
largest increase at 22,400, followed by
increases in Billings, Missoula, and
Kalispell – all with gains of 18,000 to
20,000. Helena also had a significant
increase. These five urban and
urbanizing centers accounted for
nearly all of the state’s population
growth in this most recent ten-year
period between Censuses.
Population within 50-Mile Zones of Major Cities, 2000 vs. 2010
141,972 140,870
95,541
83,024
68,144
161,389 159,603
113,817
105,441
87,412
77,686
67,106
229,961
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Billings Missoula Kalispell Bozeman Great Falls Helena Butte Rest of MT
Source: Swanson using Census data (there is some overlap in these zones by several cities)
2000 2010
Population Growth by Zone, 2000 to 2010
22,417
19,417
18,733 18,276
9,542
751
53
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Bozeman Billings Missoula Kalispell Helena Great Falls Butte Rest of MT

Montana’s 2010
Pop Distribution,
West-to-East

The top chart shows the total
population of each county in
2010, with western counties to
the left, central front counties
in the center, and eastern
plains counties at the right.

Montana’s seven urban
counties are color-coded in
dark blue (Yellowstone), dark
green (Missoula and Cascade),
and dark yellow (Flathead,
Gallatin, Lewis & Clark, and
Silver Bow).  The lower chart
then shows how population
changed in Montana from
2000 to 2010.

Population growth is
concentrated in western
Montana and in and nearby
the state’s urban centers.
More and more of Montana’s
economy is “urban” in
character and could not exist
absent these growing centers.
Montana 2010 Population Distribution, West-to-East & Urban-to-Rural
PA R K
LINC O LN
LA KE
S ILV ER B O W
R A V A LLI
LEW IS & C LA R K
G A LLA T INF LA THEA D
M IS SO U LA
G LA C IER
C A SC A D E
Y ELLO W STO N E
C U STER
HILL
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
M
ISSO
U
LA
FLATH
EAD
G
ALLATIN
LEW
IS
&
C
LARK
R
AVALLI
SILVER
BO
WLAKE
LINC
O
LNPAR
K
SAN
DER
S
JEFFERSO
N
C
ARBO
N
D
EER
LO
DG
E
BEAVER
HEAD
STILLW
ATER
M
ADISO
N
PO
W
ELL
BR
O
ADW
ATER
M
IN
ERAL
SW
EET
G
RASS
G
R
ANITE
M
EAG
HER
YELLO
W
STO
N
E
C
ASCAD
E
G
LAC
IER
BIG
H
O
RN
FERG
U
S
PO
N
DER
ATETO
N
C
HO
U
TEAUTO
O
LE
M
USSELSH
ELL
W
HEATLAND
JUD
ITH
BASIN
G
O
LD
EN
VALLEY
PETRO
LEU
MH
ILL
C
USTER
R
O
O
SEVELT
R
IC
HLAN
D
R
O
SEBUD
D
AW
SO
N
VALLEY
BLAINE
PH
ILLIPS
SH
ERIDAN
FALLO
N
LIBERTY
D
ANIELS
PO
W
DER
R
IVER
M
CC
O
NE
G
AR
FIELD
PR
AIR
IE
C
ARTER
W
IBAU
X
TREASU
RE
Montana Population Change by County, West-to-East, Urban-to-Rural, 2000-10
FLATHEAD
G ALLATIN
LEWIS & CLARK
RAVALLI
LAKE
MIS S O ULA
CAS CADE
YELLO WS TO NE
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
M
ISSO
U
LA
FLATH
EAD
G
ALLATIN
LEW
IS
&
C
LARK
R
AVALLI
SILVER
BO
WLAKE
LINC
O
LNPAR
K
SAN
DER
S
JEFFERSO
N
C
ARBO
N
D
EER
LO
DG
E
BEAVER
HEAD
STILLW
ATER
M
ADISO
N
PO
W
ELL
BR
O
ADW
ATER
M
IN
ERAL
SW
EET
G
RASS
G
R
ANITE
M
EAG
HER
YELLO
W
STO
N
E
C
ASCAD
E
G
LAC
IER
BIG
H
O
RN
FERG
U
S
PO
N
DER
A
TETO
N
C
HO
U
TEAUTO
O
LE
M
USSELSH
ELL
W
HEATLAND
JUD
ITH
BASIN
G
O
LD
EN
VALLEY
PETRO
LEU
MH
ILL
C
USTER
R
O
O
SEVELT
R
IC
HLAN
D
R
O
SEBUD
D
AW
SO
N
VALLEY
BLAINE
PH
ILLIPS
SH
ERIDAN
FALLO
N
LIBERTY
D
ANIELS
PO
W
DER
R
IVER
M
CC
O
NE
G
AR
FIELD
PR
AIR
IE
C
ARTER
W
IBAU
X
TREASU
RE

Labor Force
Distribution in
Montana, West-to-
East and Urban-to-
Rural

The upper chart shows how the
labor force was distributed
across Montana prior to
declines in the labor force and
employment brought on by the
economic downturn.  Counties
are arrayed in the chart from
left (western counties) to right
(eastern counties), with
counties in the central front in
the middle.  Within each of
these three groupings, counties
are also arrayed from urban
(most populated counties and
counties nearby them) to rural
(less populated and isolated).

The lower chart shows how the
labor force grew across these
regional county groupings from
January of 2000 to August of
2008.   In this recent period of
economic growth in Montana,
labor force expansion has been
heavily nearby the urban
centers.
Labor Force Distribution in Montana, West-to-East, Urban-to-Rural, Aug. 2008
CUSTERGLACIER HILL
LAKE
RAVALLI
LEWIS & CLARK
FLATHEAD
GALLATIN
MISSOULA
CASCADE
YELLOWSTONE
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
M
IS
SO
ULA
G
ALLATIN
FLATHEA
D
LEW
IS
&
CLARK
RAVALLI
SILVER
BO
WLAK
EPARK
LINCO
LN
JEFFER
SON
CARBON
BEAVERHE
AD
SAND
ERS
STILLW
ATER
M
A
DISO
N
DEER
LODG
E
SW
EET
G
RASS
PO
W
ELL
BRO
ADW
A
TER
M
IN
E
RA
L
G
RANITE
M
EAGHE
R
YELLO
W
STO
NE
CASCADE
G
LAC
IER
FERG
US
BIG
HO
RN
TETO
N
TOO
LE
CHOUTEAU
PO
ND
ER
A
M
USS
ELS
HE
LL
W
H
EATLAN
D
JUDITH
BASIN
G
O
LDEN
VALLE
Y
PETR
O
LEUMHILL
CUSTER
RIC
HLAND
DAW
SO
N
RO
SEBUD
RO
O
SEVELT
VALLEY
BLAINE
PHILLIPS
FALLO
N
SHERID
AN
M
C
CO
NE
PO
W
DE
R
RIVER
DANIELS
CARTER
LIBER
TY
G
ARFIELD
PRAIR
IE
W
IBAUX
TREAS
U
RE
Labor Force Expansion by Montana Counties, January, 2000, to August, 2008
S WEET G R A S SMA D IS O NPA R K
R IC HLA ND
SILV ER B O W
R A V A LLI
LEW IS & C LA R K
FLA THEA D
G A LLA TIN
M ISSO U LA
G LA C IER
C A SC A D E
Y ELLO W STO N E
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
M
ISSOULA
G
ALLATIN
FLATHEAD
LEW
IS
&
CLARK
RAVALLI
SILVER
BO
WLAKEPARK
LINCO
LN
JEFFERSON
CARBON
BEAVERHEAD
SANDERS
STILLW
ATER
M
ADISON
DEER
LODG
E
SW
EET
G
RASS
PO
W
ELL
BRO
ADW
ATER
M
INERAL
G
RANITE
M
EAGHER
YELLOW
STONE
CASCADE
G
LACIER
FERG
US
BIG
HO
RN
TETON
TOO
LE
CHOUTEAU
PO
NDERA
M
USSELSHELL
W
HEATLAND
JUDITH
BASIN
G
OLDEN
VALLEY
PETRO
LEUMHILL
CUSTER
RICHLAND
DAW
SO
N
RO
SEBUD
RO
OSEVELT
VALLEY
BLAINE
PHILLIPS
FALLO
N
SHERIDAN
M
CCO
NE
PO
W
DER
RIVER
DANIELS
CARTER
LIBERTY
G
ARFIELD
PRAIRIE
W
IBAUX
TREASURE

Labor Force Distribution in Montana, West-to-East and Urban-to-Rural
The chart below shows how the labor force in Montana was distributed across the state’s counties prior to declines in the labor force and
employment brought on by the economic downturn. Counties are arrayed in the chart from left (western counties) to right (eastern
counties), with counties in the central front region in the middle. Within each of these three regional groupings, counties are also arrayed
from urban (most populated counties and counties nearby them) to rural (less populated and isolated).
Labor Force Distribution in Montana, West-to-East, Urban-to-Rural, Aug. 2008
CUSTERGLACIER HILL
LAKE
RAVALLI
LEW IS & CLARK
FLATHEAD
GALLATIN
MISSOULA
CASCADE
YELLOW STONE
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
MISSOULA
GALLATIN
FLATHEAD
LEWIS&CLARK
RAVALLI
SILVERBOW
LAKE
PARK
LINCOLN
JEFFERSON
CARBON
BEAVERHEAD
SANDERS
STILLWATER
MADISON
DEERLODGE
SWEETGRASS
POWELL
BROADWATER
MINERAL
GRANITE
MEAGHER
YELLOWSTONE
CASCADE
GLACIER
FERGUS
BIGHORN
TETON
TOOLE
CHOUTEAU
PONDERA
MUSSELSHELL
WHEATLAND
JUDITHBASIN
GOLDENVALLEY
PETROLEUM
HILL
CUSTER
RICHLAND
DAWSON
ROSEBUD
ROOSEVELT
VALLEY
BLAINE
PHILLIPS
FALLON
SHERIDAN
MCCONE
POWDERRIVER
DANIELS
CARTER
LIBERTY
GARFIELD
PRAIRIE
WIBAUX
TREASURE

Labor Force Expansion Across Montana
The chart shows how the labor force grew across these regional county groupings from January of 2000 to August of 2008. In this
recent period of economic growth in Montana, labor force expansion has been heavily concentrated in and nearby urban centers.
Labor Force Expansion by Montana Counties, January, 2000, to August, 2008
SW EET G R A SSM A D ISO N
PA R K
R IC HLA N D
S ILV ER B O W
R A V A LLI
LEW IS & C LA R K
FLA THEA D
G A LLA TIN
M ISSO U LA
G LA C IER
C A SC A D E
Y ELLO W ST O N E
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
MISSOULA
GALLATIN
FLATHEAD
LEWIS&CLARK
RAVALLI
SILVERBOW
LAKE
PARK
LINCOLN
JEFFERSON
CARBON
BEAVERHEAD
SANDERS
STILLWATER
MADISON
DEERLODGE
SWEETGRASS
POWELL
BROADWATER
MINERAL
GRANITE
MEAGHER
YELLOWSTONE
CASCADE
GLACIER
FERGUS
BIGHORN
TETON
TOOLE
CHOUTEAU
PONDERA
MUSSELSHELL
WHEATLAND
JUDITHBASIN
GOLDENVALLEY
PETROLEUM
HILL
CUSTER
RICHLAND
DAWSON
ROSEBUD
ROOSEVELT
VALLEY
BLAINE
PHILLIPS
FALLON
SHERIDAN
MCCONE
POWDERRIVER
DANIELS
CARTER
LIBERTY
GARFIELD
PRAIRIE
WIBAUX
TREASURE

Montana’s 2010 Population Distribution, West-to-East
In interpreting past and future job growth patterns in Montana it important to view how the state’s population is distributed from west-
to-east and between urban areas and rural. The chart shows the total population of each county in 2010, with western counties to the
left, central front counties in the center, and eastern plains counties at the right. Montana’s seven urban counties are color-coded in dark
blue (Yellowstone), dark green (Missoula and Cascade), and dark yellow (Flathead, Gallatin, Lewis & Clark, and Silver Bow).
Montana 2010 Population Distribution, West-to-East & Urban-to-Rural
PARK
LINCOLN
LAKE
SILVER BOW
RAVALLI
LEW IS & CLARK
GALLATINFLATHEAD
MISSOULA
GLACIER
CASCADE
YELLOW STONE
CUSTER
HILL
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
MISSOULA
FLATHEAD
GALLATIN
LEWIS&CLARK
RAVALLI
SILVERBOW
LAKE
LINCOLN
PARK
SANDERS
JEFFERSON
CARBON
DEERLODGE
BEAVERHEAD
STILLWATER
MADISON
POWELL
BROADWATER
MINERAL
SWEETGRASS
GRANITE
MEAGHER
YELLOWSTONE
CASCADE
GLACIER
BIGHORN
FERGUS
PONDERA
TETON
CHOUTEAU
TOOLE
MUSSELSHELL
WHEATLAND
JUDITHBASIN
GOLDENVALLEY
PETROLEUM
HILL
CUSTER
ROOSEVELT
RICHLAND
ROSEBUD
DAWSON
VALLEY
BLAINE
PHILLIPS
SHERIDAN
FALLON
LIBERTY
DANIELS
POWDERRIVER
MCCONE
GARFIELD
PRAIRIE
CARTER
WIBAUX
TREASURE

Population Growth Across Montana, 2000-10
Population growth is concentrated in western Montana and in and nearby the state’s urban centers. More and more of
Montana’s economy is “urban” in character and could not exist absent these growing centers.
Montana Population Change by County, West-to-East, Urban-to-Rural, 2000-10
FLATHEAD
GALLATIN
LEW IS & CLARK
RAVALLI
LAKE
MISSOULA
CASCADE
YELLOW STONE
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
MISSOULA
FLATHEAD
GALLATIN
LEWIS&CLARK
RAVALLI
SILVERBOW
LAKE
LINCOLN
PARK
SANDERS
JEFFERSON
CARBON
DEERLODGE
BEAVERHEAD
STILLWATER
MADISON
POWELL
BROADWATER
MINERAL
SWEETGRASS
GRANITE
MEAGHER
YELLOWSTONE
CASCADE
GLACIER
BIGHORN
FERGUS
PONDERA
TETON
CHOUTEAU
TOOLE
MUSSELSHELL
WHEATLAND
JUDITHBASIN
GOLDENVALLEY
PETROLEUM
HILL
CUSTER
ROOSEVELT
RICHLAND
ROSEBUD
DAWSON
VALLEY
BLAINE
PHILLIPS
SHERIDAN
FALLON
LIBERTY
DANIELS
POWDERRIVER
MCCONE
GARFIELD
PRAIRIE
CARTER
WIBAUX
TREASURE

Past and Projected
Trends in Annual
Births & Deaths in
Montana
The chart shows annual births
and deaths in Montana dating
back to the mid-40s and
extending up through 2011 (actual
records). Birth estimates for 2012
through 2030 are from projections
made by the U.S. Census Bureau
in 2005. Death projections are
made by Swanson and are based
upon projections for the size of
the 65 and older population in
future years and on past and
future estimates of deaths as a
function of the 65 and older
population.
The number of persons 65 and
older in Montana is projected to
increase by about 70% from 2010
to 2025 and this increase is what
accounts for the steady and rapid
rise in the annual number of
deaths. Persons born in 1957 at
the height of the birth in Boomers
were 53 in 2010 and will be 63 in
2020 and 73 in 2030. So, as the Boomer generation continues to age over time past their 60s
and into their 70s and beyond, annual deaths will rise with this trend
slowing sometime after 2030.
Annual Births and Deaths in Montana - Actual (1945-2011) and Projected (2012-2030)
'45
'73
'99
'06
'82
'57
'10
'25
'30
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
'45 '48 '51 '54 '57 '60 '63 '66 '69 '72 '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 '23 '26 '29
Source: Actual (Montana Vital Statistics, 2011) and Projected (births, U.S. Census Bureau, March, '05; deaths:
Larry Swanson, OCRMW)
Actual Projected
Deaths Projected

Population
Aging in
Montana

The top chart below
shows the population of
Montana at the time of
the 2000 and 2010
Censuses arrayed by the
number of persons at
each age, from youngest
to oldest. The state’s
overall population grew
from 902,195 to 989,415
during this period; an
increase 87,220 or 9.7%.
Growth the previous
decade of the ‘90s was
12.8% and growth
projected for 2010 to
2020 is around 8%
(Swanson, Apr., 2012).
Growth is slowing in
part because the
population is aging and
this can be seen below.
The lower chart then
looks at change in
population by age.
Montana's Populaton by Single Age, Youngest-to-Oldest, 2000 vs. 2010
15
42
85+
25
52
0
6,000
12,000
18,000
24 ,000
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
57
60
63
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
Source: U.S. Population Censuses
2000 2010
Montana Population Change by Single Age, 1990-2000 & 2000-2010
48
17
85+
3
58
27
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
57
60
63
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
'90-'00 '00-'10

Projected Shifts in
the Population of
Montana by Age
The upper chart shows how
population changed in
Montana by single age from
youngest to oldest between
1990 and 2000. The lower
chart shows how population
is projected to change by the
U.S. Census Bureau (March,
2005, projections) between
2000 and 2010.
The growth in population that
was concentrated among
persons between their early
40s and late 50s in the ‘90s is
projected to be concentrated
between persons in their early
50s to late 60s in the current
decade.
The echo population also will
continue to age, shifting
growth to persons between
their early 20s and mid-30s.
And during the current
decade the “echo-echo”
population will come into
being, reflected in the recent
increase in births.
Montana Population Change by Age: 1990 to 2000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
-5,000
-2,500
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
Montana Projected Pop. Change by Age: 2000 to 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
-5,000
-2,500
0
2,500
5,000
7,500

Projected Popu-
lation Growth by
Age in the Next
Decade – 2010 to
2020
The chart at the right
shows how Montana’s
population is projected to
change by age between
2010 and 2020. During
the next decade growth
in the state’s population
will shift to persons in
their early 60s to late 70s
and Montana is in fact
projected to have one of
the largest populations
65 and older as a percent
of its total by 2020.
The echo group or the
children of boomers is
shown in growth among
persons from their early
30s to mid 40s. However,
this echo group is
projected by the Census
Bureau to be much
smaller than the boomer
group. In turn, the “echo-
echo” group is projected
to be much smaller than
the echo group.
As we look out in front of us, we can see that population growth will continue to manifest itself in
ripples and waves, with each successive wave of growth smaller than its immediate predecessor.
This pattern of growth has significant implications. The fastest growth will occur among seniors
and health care demand will continue to rise and housing needs will change. The number of
persons at will move up and down at ages where college students are primarily drawn, as well as
for high schools and elementary schools. The labor force of Montana will very likely shrink in size
in the future as more and more persons leave the workforce for retirement and there are not
enough persons entering the workforce to replace them.
Montana Projected Pop. Change by Age: 2010 to 2020
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
-5,000
-2,500
0
2,500
5,000
7,500

Future Population
Change in Montana
by Age Group
Projected aging of Montana’s
population over the next 20 years
can be viewed by examining how
the population is expected to
change by age grouping. The upper
chart shows the population under
18 (high school and younger), the
population 18 to 33 (young post-
high school adults and those at
ages of family formation and
childrearing), the population 34 to
49 (young and middle-age adults),
the population 50 to 64 (older adults
at pre-retirement ages), and the
population 65 and older.
The older adult working age
population between 50 and 64,
which saw massive growth in the
‘90s will also see very high growth
in the current period before
beginning a decline. And the 65
and older population, which grew
by only 13% in the ‘90s, will grow
by 20%, 46%, and 27% in the
subsequent three decades.
As a result of these age shifts,
Montana will have one of the
largest populations over 65 of any
state in the country in future years.
Projected Montana Population by Age Group
215,516215,351
191,309
160,909
192,115
129,243
247,769
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005
0-17 18-33 34-49 50-64 65+
Projected Percent Pop. Change by Age Grouping, Montana
3%
-8%
3%
-4%
0%
10%
-14%
-5%
22%
-13%
9%
-1%
39%
49%
-4%
-8%
13%
20%
46%
27%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
'90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
0-17
18-33
34-49
50-64
65+

Regional Patterns of
Population Aging in
the U.S. – 65 and
Over Population as a
share of the total

The 65 and older population in
Montana was 13.3% of the total
in 1990, 13.4% in 2000, and
14.8% in 2010. By 2020 this will
rise to 20% and to nearly 24%
by 2025.

Some areas are growing older
more rapidly and this aging
process will accelerate over the
next 20 years as more and more
“boomers” move past 65 years
of age.

Population aging will slow the
growth in the labor force.
[Note: data used in the maps
are from the 1990 and 2010
Population Censuses]

Population Aging
Among Rocky
Mountain West States
The chart shows the percent of
the total population 65 and older
for five Rocky Mountain West
states and for the U.S.
All of the Rocky Mountain West
states have been adding
population through net in-
migration and, sometimes, this
can result in the population of an
area being “younger” than others
without such in-migration. But it
depends upon what age groups
the in-migrants and out-migrants
are from. Montana and Wyoming
are tending to age more rapidly
than other Rocky Mountain states
because they both have tended to
add older adults (boomers) while
losing younger adults, and this
has tilted their overall age
profiles.
Montana’s population is currently
oldest among these five states
with 14.6% of the total 65 and
older. By 2030 this is projected to
increase to nearly 26%.
The U.S. population as a whole is aging and this aging will accelerate as the
large boomer population continues to age. The 65 and older population will
increase from around 13% in 2010 to almost 20% nationwide in 2030.
Past & Projected Population Aging for Mountain West States, 1990 - 2030
10.9%
9.0%
12.4%
14.8%
12.4%
13.0%
16.5%
13.2%
18.3%
25.8%
26.5%
19.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Colorado Utah Idaho Montana Wyoming U.S.
Source: Population Censuses & U.S. Census Bureau Projections (2005)
'90 '00 '10 '30

States ordered by
Population that is 65
and older
The chart shows the percent of
the total population of each state
in 2010 and 1990 that is 65 years
of age and older. States in the
Rocky Mountain West are shown
with purple bars for their 2010
values. Southwestern states are
shown with gold bars.
Montana’s 65 and older
population rose to 14.8% of the
total in 2010, up from 13.3% in
1990. By contrast Colorado’s
rose from 10.0% to 10.9%.
The share of the population 65
and older did not increase in all of
the states between these two
years, largely because the large
boomer population is only
reaching age 65 and older in
recent years. However, going
forward into the future, this
elderly population will grow more
rapidly and its share of the total
will rise in almost all of the states.
U.S. States by 65 & Older Population as Share of Total, 2010 & 1990
17.3%
13.8%
13.2%
12.4%
10.9%
9.0%
12.4%
14.8%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
Utah
Texas
Georgia
Colorado
California
Distr of Col
Nevada
Virginia
Maryland
Louisiana
Washington
Idaho
Wyoming
Illinois
Mississippi
Minnesota
North Carolina
Indiana
Kansas
New Mexico
Kentucky
Tennessee
New Jersey
Nebraska
Oklahoma
New York
New Hampshire
South Carolina
Wisconsin
Alabama
Michigan
Massachusetts
Arizona
Oregon
Missouri
Ohio
Connecticut
South Dakota
Delaware
Arkansas
Rhode Island
North Dakota
Vermont
Montana
Iowa
Pennsylvania
Maine
West Virginia
Florida
Source: Population Censuses
2010
1990

Employment Trends
by Major Sector in
Montana, 1990-2010
Understanding where the economy
may be going in the future must start
with the path of job growth and
change in recent years. The chart
shows total employment levels for
the 24 major sectors of the economy
over the last two decades. Retail
trade is Montana’s largest employer
among sectors with total
employment (all full and part-time
jobs) exceeding 70,000, although
many jobs in this sector are less than
full-time. Health care services is next
with around 68,000 total jobs
followed by accommodations and
food services (lodging facilities and
food service stores, etc.), then local
government (all city and county
government as well as local public
schools), and then construction (all
construction including buildings,
heavy construction, and special
trades). Total employment in
Montana (including all full- and part-
time jobs) grew by 28% in the ‘90s as
compared with 20% growth
nationwide, and by over 12% in the
most recent decade (2000-10), as
compared to only 5% growth
nationally.
Total Employment by Major Sectors of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 2010
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce (includes all full- and part-time employment)
Retail Trade
Health Care serv
Accom & Food serv
Local Govt
Construction
Other Services
Prof & Tech serv
Real Estate serv
Farm/Ranch
Admin & Waste sv
State Govt
Finance & Insur
M anufacturing
Arts,Ent,Recr serv
Wholesale Tr
Transpt & Warehsg
Fed Civil Govt
All M ining
Information serv
U.S. M ilitary
Education serv
Forest & Ag serv
Utilities
M anagemt serv

Total Job Growth in
Montana by Major
Sector, 1998-2008
The chart isolates change in employment
in each of the 24 major sectors leading up
to and into the recent economic recession,
which officially began nationally in
December of 2007. This chart shows us
the path Montana’s economy was on over
this recent ten-year period, prior to the
downturn.
The largest increase in jobs among sectors
was by construction where jobs grew by
16,200, accounting for 15.4% of all new
jobs - construction also was among the
sectors hardest hit by the recent
recession. Jobs in health care services
grew by 15,400 (14.6% of all new jobs).
Jobs in real estate services increased by
11,900 (11.3% of all new jobs), and in
professional and technical services by
11,700 (11.1% of jobs), and in
administrative and waste services by
9,200 (8.8% of jobs). These five major
sectors together – construction, health
care, real estate services, professional and
technical services, and administrative and
waste services - accounted for 61% of all
new jobs in Montana over this period.
Three “trade” sectors (shown in orange)
were next in line, together adding 20,000
jobs or about 19% of the total.
Total Employment Growth by Major Sector of the Montana Economy, 1998 to 2008
527
540
943
948
1,000
2,493
2,716
2,833
4,170
4,406
4,921
5,882
7,036
7,405
9,209
11,656
11,879
15,384
16,165
-3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000
Farm & Ranch
Manufacturing
Forest & Ag serv
U.S. Military
Utilities
Transpt & Warehsg
Managemt serv
Wholesale Tr
Information serv
Fed Civil Govt
Local Govt
State Govt
Education serv
Retail Trade
All Mining & Mng Supt
Finance & Insur
Other Services
Arts,Ent,Recr serv
Accom & Food serv
Admin & Waste sv
Prof & Tech serv
Real Estate serv
Health Care serv
Construction

Employment in
Montana by Sub-
sector Groupings,
2008
There are 87 individual economic
sub-sectors and these are shown
by major “groupings” in the
chart. Within each grouping,
sub-sectors are arrayed by total
employment.
Sub-sectors are color-coded as
follows: “teal” (professional,
business, and financial services),
“blue” (health care), “yellow”
(government), “orange” (trade),
“dark red” (construction),
“black” (manufacturing),
“white” (transportation),
“purple” (petro refining and oil
and gas), “brown” (all other
mining and mining support),
“brown-green” (wood products),
and “green” (ag).
Total Employment in Montana by Sub-sector Groupings in 2008
29,159
30,285
25,939
18,535
39,629
25,980
46,236
14,813
20,210
21,187
26,391
34,350
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Fa rm & R anc h
A g S erv ice s
F o res try S erv
Pa p er M fg
W o o d Pro d M fg
M ining S up p o rt s e rv
M ining e xc O &G
O il & G as Extr
Pe tro leum Pro d M fg
Pip e line T rans p t
U tilities
W arehs ig / s to ra g e
A ir T rans p t
T rans it & G ro und T ranp t
T ra ns p t S up p o rt s e rv
C o uriers / me s s e ng e rs
R ail Tra ns p t
T ruck T ra ns p t
O ther T ra ns p Eq up M fg
Lea ther M fg
T extile Pro d M fg
Ele c. Eq uip M fg
A p p a rel M fg
Plas tics M fg
M o to r V e h M fg
Prim M e tals M fg
C o mp uters , Elect M fg
B eve ra g e M fg
C he mic al M fg
N o nmeta ls M fg
F urniture M fg
Printing M fg
M achine ry M fg
F ab r M eta ls M fg
M is c el M fg
F o o d M fg
He av y C o ns tr
B uild ing s C o ns tr
S p ec T rad e C o ntr
Les s o rs o f intang a s s e ts
R .E. R ent/ leas ing s erv
R ea l Es tate s erv
M us eums , z o o s , p arks
M o v ie T hea ters
Ele ctro nic s R etl
Furniture / Ho me R e tl
Hea lth C a re Sto res R e tl
C lo thing R e tl
S p o rting , M us in R etl
G as o S tatio ns R etl
Pers o na l & laund ry s erv ice s
B ld g M a t/ G ard en R e tl
Perfo rming a rts / s p o rts
M is c el R etl
N o ns to re R etl
M o to r V e h R etl
R ep air Se rv
Fo o d S to res R etl
Priva te ho us eho ld s e rv
G en M erch R etl
Lo d g ing (ho te ls / mo tels )
A mus e mt, g a mb ling , re cre a
Fo o d & D rinking p la ces
W ho le s ale trad e
U .S . M ilitary
Fe d C ivilian G o vt
Sta te G o vt
Lo c al G o vt, inc l p ub e d
N urs ing / re s id ential care facil
S o cial a s s is ta nce
Ho s p ita ls
A mb ulato ry he alth s e rv
O ther Info S erv
C entral b anks , fund s , trus ts
IS Ps / s ea rch/ d a ta p ro ces g
W as te M ang mt S erv
B ro a d ca s ting b us ine s s e s
M ana g ement S erv
Pub lis hing b us ines s es
T ele co mmunic atio ns
S ecurities / Inv es tments
Ed uc atio n S erv
Ins uranc e b us ines s es
B anks & C red it Ins t
M e mb e rs hip o rg aniz atio ns
A d minis trativ e S erv
Pro fes , T ec h S erv
S o urc e : S wa ns o n us ing B EA , U.S . C o m m e rc e da ta (inc lude s a ll full- a nd pa rt-tim e jo bs )

Total Employment
Growth in
Montana by Sub-
sector, 1998-2008
This chart focuses on “job
growth” only for each sub-
sector across these groupings
from 1998 to 2008 – the time
period leading up to the recent
economic slowdown. It
captures how employment was
changing prior to the
slowdown.
Of the 87 sub-sectors, the one
with the biggest increase in jobs
was “Professional, scientific and
technical services” (legal
services, accounting,
bookkeeping, architectural,
engineering, computer,
research, advertising, etc.,
services). “Real estate services”
had the second biggest
increase.
Total Employment Growth in Montana by Sub-sector, 1998 - 2008
-2,945
4,442
10,148
10,999
5,048
5,925
4,577
5,706
9,171
11,543
-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
F arm & R a nch
A g S ervic es
F o re s try S erv
W o o d Pro d M fg
Pap er M fg
M ining S up p o rt s erv
M ining exc O &G
O il & G as Extr
Petro leum Pro d M fg
Pip eline Trans p t
U tilities
T ruc k T rans p t
R ail T rans p t
A ir Trans p t
W arehs ig / s to ra g e
T ra ns it & G ro und T ranp t
C o uriers / mes s e ng er s
Tra ns p t S up p o rt s e rv
Prim M etals M fg
F urniture M fg
N o nmeta ls M fg
Plas tics M fg
B ev era g e M fg
C o mp ute rs , Elect M fg
O the r T ra ns p Eq up M fg
Printing M fg
T ext ile Pro d M fg
A p p arel M fg
Leather M fg
C hemica l M fg
Ele c. Eq uip M fg
M is ce l M fg
M o to r V eh M fg
F o o d M fg
M achinery M fg
F ab r M eta ls M fg
Heavy C o ns tr
B uild ing s C o ns tr
Sp e c Trad e C o nt r
Les s o rs o f intang a s s e ts
R .E. R e nt/ le as ing s e rv
R eal Es tate s erv
N o ns to re R etl
G as o St atio ns R etl
M o vie T heaters
F o o d S to res R e tl
M us eums , z o o s , p arks
Ele ctro nics R etl
Sp o rting , M us in R etl
C lo thing R etl
R e p air S erv
Health C a re S to re s R e tl
M o to r V eh R etl
M is ce l R etl
F urniture / Ho me R etl
Pers o na l & la und ry s ervic es
Private ho us eho ld s erv
B ld g M at/ G ard e n R e tl
Lo d g ing (ho tels / mo tels )
Perfo rming arts / s p o rts
G en M erc h R etl
A mus e mt, g amb ling , rec rea
F o o d & D rinking p laces
W ho les ale trad e
U .S . M ilitary
F ed C iv ilian G o v t
Lo cal G o v t, incl p ub ed
S tate G o vt
N ur s ing / res id ential care facil
Ho s p itals
S o cial as s is tance
A mb ula to ry hea lth s erv
Pub lis hing b us ines s es
O ther Inf o S e rv
B ro ad cas ting b us ines s es
C entral b anks , fund s , trus ts
W as te M ang mt S er v
IS Ps / s e arch/ d ata p ro ces g
T eleco mmunica tio ns
M a nag e ment Se rv
Securities / Inves tments
Ins urance b us ines s es
B a nks & C red it Ins t
M emb ers hip o rg aniz at io ns
Ed uca tio n S erv
A d minis trative S erv
Pro fes , T ech S erv
S o urc e : S wa ns o n us ing B EA , U.S . C o m m e rc e da ta (inc lude s a ll full- a nd pa rt-tim e jo bs )

Total Employment in
Montana’s Energy
Sectors

Considerable attention has been
focused on the role that energy
industries can play in Montana’s
economy and this will continue to
play out. The chart at the right
shows total employment for several
of the major energy industries in
Montana, including electric and gas
utilities, oil and gas extraction,
mining support businesses,
petroleum refineries, coal mining,
and pipelines.
The chart only shows annual data
through 2010 but it can be seen that
employment has grown in some
areas – oil and gas and mining
support – while declining or
remaining somewhat stagnant in
others.
The lower chart shows how much of
the state’s employment is
accounted for by these energy
sectors. In 2010 they accounted for
only 1.8% of all jobs. While up from
as low as 1.3% a few years ago, this
is still less than the 2.1% in 1990.
Jobs Over Time for Energy-Related Sectors of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 2010
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce & MT Dept of Labor & Industry
Allfull-&part-timejobs
Oil & Gas
extraction
Electric,
gas, &
sanitary
serv
Mining
Support
Serv, incl
oil,gas,coal
Petroleum
Refineries
Coal mining
(estimates)
Petro &
N.Gas
Pipelines
Energy-Related Sectors Employment as Share of Total Employment, 1990 to 2010
1.8%
1.3%
2.1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Labor Earnings
Levels among
Energy-Related Sub-
sectors in Montana,
1990 to 2009
Annual labor earnings
received by persons working
in these energy-related jobs
are shown in the chart in
millions of 2005 inflation-
adjusted dollars.
While employment among the
state’s utilities has fallen
from levels in the mid-‘90s,
labor earnings for these
workers have generally risen
and reached a high of $340
million in 2009, up from
around $250 million at the
beginning of the decade.
Labor earnings by oil and gas
workers reached $237 million
in 2008, before falling back to
$202 million in 2009. These
are significantly higher than
levels in the ‘90s.
Labor earnings in mining support activities and petroleum refining also have increased
steadily over most of the last ten years, with refinery workers receiving labor earnings of
$188 million in 2009. Mining support workers received $146 million in 2009 after
receiving $203 million in 2008, both significantly higher levels than in the ‘90s.
Labor Earnings for Energy-Related Sectors of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 2009
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce & MT Dept of Labor & Industry
Millionsof2005Dollars
Electric, gas,
& sanitary
serv
Oil & Gas
extraction
Petroleum
Refineries
Mining Support
Serv, incl
oil,gas,coal
Coal mining
(estimates)
Petro & N.Gas
Pipelines

Wage & Salary
Employment vs.
Self-employment
(Proprietors) in
Montana
The chart shows annual
employment counts for all
workers in Montana, both
self-employed and wage and
salary or payroll employment.
The second line shows the
total number employed as
“wage and salary workers.”
The time period shown is 1980
through 2010. Montana
experienced steady
employment growth most of
the last two decades leading
up to the recent recession,
with total employment
growing by 28% in the ‘90s as
compared to 20% nationally.
The lower chart shows the
percent of total employment
by wage and salary workers.
Wage and salary jobs currently
represent a little less than
three-fourths (73% in MT vs.
78% nationally) of all jobs in
Montana and their share of
total employment has been
gradually decreasing.
Employment in MT Over Time: Total vs. Wage & Salary Workers Only, 1980-2010
390,752
415,921
536,721
641,850
299,427 307,913
395,794
468,539
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
'80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce
total employment
wage & salary
workers only
Wage & Salary Jobs as a Share of All Jobs Over Time in Montana
77.9%
74.0% 73.7% 73.0%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
85%
'80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Deconstruction of
the MDLI Industry
Jobs Projections

The 2010 estimates used in
making the 2020 projections
were broken down into more
detailed industries with
ownerships separated as in the
BEA industry employment
data.  Estimates for 2000 up to
2010 were examined and then
these trends were compared
with projections going forward
to 2020.  The chart at the right
shows these breakdowns.

Private healthcare is the
largest employer among these
22 industries and it grew
through the recent recession.
Retail trade is 2nd
largest but it
is not projected to return to its
peak employment level in 2008
until 2019.  The construction
industry, shown in red, had
peak employment in 2007 of
32,000 jobs but it won’t grow
back to this until after 2020.
Recent Past & Projected Employment by Major Industry, 2000 to 2020
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
75,000
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'10E
'12p
'14p
'16p
'18p
'20P
Source: Swanson, using MDLI data, estimates, and projections
Health Care & Social Assist
(priv)
Retail Trade
Local Govt. (incl. ed. & health)
Accommodation & Food
Services
State Govt. (incl ed. & health)
Admin & Waste Services
Profess & Tech Services
Other Services, ex. Public Adm
Wholesale Trade
Finance & Insurance
Fed Civilian Govt (incl PO)
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation
Transportation & Warehsg
Information
Real Estate, Rental, Leasg
Educational Serv (priv)
Utilities
Managemt of comp./entrep.
Construction
Manufacturing
Mining
Agr, Forestry, Fishg & Huntg

Expected Job Growth
in Montana by Major
Category
The chart shows recently projected
job growth for Montana for two
major categories of the economy –
services-producing activities and
good-producing activities (this latter
category includes manufacturing,
construction, and natural resource
and mining sectors, while all others
are included in services). These
estimates and projections are from
Montana’s Department of Labor and
Industry (MDLI) and jobs are as
defined in BLS data-gathering - they
only include primary jobs of those
employed. Excluded from these are
another 44,000 jobs by self-
employed and unpaid family workers
(primary jobs). The total number of
these jobs in Montana is projected to
increase from about 421,000 in 2010
to just over 474,000 in 2020 - an
increase of over 53,000 jobs and
12.6%. This compares with a recent
projection by the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics of 14.8% for the
nation as a whole.
Eighty percent of all these new jobs
are projected to be in “services-
producing” areas of the economy.
This compares with 99% of all new
jobs nationwide as projected by BLS.
Projected Total Job Levels in Montana, 2010 to 2020
50,411
370,536
420,947
61,089
413,027
474,116
0 50 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 150 ,0 0 0 2 0 0 ,0 0 0 2 50 ,0 0 0 3 0 0 ,0 0 0 3 50 ,0 0 0 4 0 0 ,0 0 0 4 50 ,0 0 0 50 0 ,0 0 0
Goods-Producing Jobs
Services-Producing Jobs
All Jobs (excl. self-
employed & unpaid family
ones)
Source: MT Labor & Industry data & estimates
2020 Proj
2010 Est
Projected Job Growth by Major Type, 2010 to 2020
10,678
42,491
53,169
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Goods-Producing Jobs
Services-Producing Jobs
All Jobs (excl. self-
employed & unpaid family)

Recent Trends in
Construction
Industry Total
Employment in
Montana

The top chart shows levels of
employment in Construction,
Mining, and Trucking in
Montana since 1990.
Construction led employment
growth in Montana’s economy
during much of its relatively
unparalleled economic
expansion in the ‘90s and
leading up to the national
recession. And construction
employment peaked in 2007 one
year after construction
employment peaked nationally.
Construction employment paled
state employment in mining and
trucking. The lower chart shows
employment in several sub-
sectors within construction and
mining. Within construction
those employed as “special trade
contractors” was the single
biggest area of employment with
much of this tied to housing
construction in Montana.
Montana Industry Employment Trends: Construction, Mining, Trucking
'10
'07
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Allfull-&part-timejobs
All Construction
All Mining
All Truck transport
Subsector Employment Trends in Construction and Mineral Extraction
Specialty trade
contractors
Construction of
buildings
He a vy & c ivil
e n gin e e ring c onst
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Specialty trade contractors
Construction of buildings
Heavy & civil engineering const
Mining (exc oil & gas)
Oil & gas extraction
Mining support activities

Montana’s Current
Housing Stock

The total number of housing
units in Montana in 2009 was
441,279 (July, 2009, U.S.
Census). The top chart shows
when these units were built,
from earliest to latest.
Of the total, nearly 196,000
were built prior to 1970 – over
44% of the total. Another 20%
were built prior to 1980. So
nearly two-thirds of all housing
units in Montana were built
prior to the last great “energy
crisis”, the one in the early ‘80s
when crude oil prices briefly
spiked to over $35 a barrel.
The number of homes built
since 1998, totals 39,600 – less
than 10% of the total.
Older homes are much more
likely to have been built with
much less focus on energy
efficiency. Older homes need
to aggressively retro-fitted with
increasingly cost-effective and
money-saving energy
measures.
Housing Units in Montana in 2009 by Period Built
72,285
77,711
45,751
89,740
54,320
61,881
27,830
11,761
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Before 1940 1940 - 1959 1960 - 1969 1970 - 1979 1980 - 1989 1990 - 1998 1999 - 2005 2005 - 2009
Source: U.S. Census 2000
Montana's Current Housing Stock by Period Built
Before 1940, 16.4%
1940 - 1959, 17.6%
1960 - 1969, 10.4%
1970 - 1979, 20.3%
1980 - 1989, 12.3%
1990 - 1998, 14.0%
1999 - 2005, 6.3%
2005 - 2009, 2.7%
Before 1940
1940 - 1959
1960 - 1969
1970 - 1979
1980 - 1989
1990 - 1998
1999 - 2005
2005 - 2009

Construction Rise and Fall .. Recovery and Change
Construction jobs peaked in 2007 in Montana at over 32,000 primary jobs and these had fallen to less than 23,000 by
2010. Projections by the Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry is that these jobs will gradually recover to only around
30,000 by 2020, 2,000 jobs less than the 2007 peak.
Total construction employment (all full- and part-time jobs) totaled 54,000 in 2007 and these had fallen to less than
42,000 by 2010.
The “housing boom” spurred construction to previously unheard of levels in Montana and the U.S. and it is unlikely
that even as this industry recovers, it will look the same as the one at the peak in the housing bubble. For one thing, so
much of construction was tied to single family housing development and, because of population aging, we are unlikely
to have rapidly rising demand for single family housing construction over the next ten to twenty years.
Energy Conservation Investments: While the construction industry will recover slowly, it also will change. Much more
emphasis will be given to future construction on existing homes tied to energy conservation – increased insulation,
window and door replacements, installation of more energy-conserving heating and cooling equipment and
appliances.
If $10,000 were invested in energy conservation measures in half the homes in Montana that were built prior to 1990,
this would be on 170,000 homes for a total of $1.7 billion. This is equivalent to building 10,000 new homes at
$170,000 each. Similar cost-effective energy investments could be made in commercial and governmental structures
throughout the state.
Investments in Restoration: Montana’s construction industry’s recovery also can be spurred by investing more public
and private dollars in environmental and natural resource restoration. Montana is a large state with hundreds of sites
and thousands of acres of land where such resources have been badly damaged and degraded. There is growing
interest in the restoration of these damaged resources and much needs to be learned about the potential jobs that
may be required, and the training and education necessary for more workers to move successfully into these jobs.

Employment Trends
in Montana by
Major “Segments”
of the Economy
The chart below groups the 24
major sectors of the economy
into eleven larger “segments”
and levels of employment among
these since 1990 are shown
below. These charts provide
pictures of employment growth
leading up to the recent
economic slowdown. When you
combine professional, technical
services with financial services
and several other services
involving “business services”
(like administrative services,
management services,
information services, etc.), these
together are Montana’s single
largest employer among major
segments. This segment also
added the most jobs, as shown
below.
Total Employment by Major "Segments" of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 2010
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Source: BEA, U.S. Comm erce
P ro f,Tech,Fin&
B us Serv (6)
Who lesale &
Retail Trade (2)
Constructio n &
Real Estate (2)
A rts, Ent, Recr,
A cco m, Foo d
(2)
Health Care
Services (1)
Fed & State
Govt (3)
Local Govt, incl
schools (1)
M anuf., Transpt,
Utilities (3)
Other Services
(1)
Farm, Ranch,
A g Serv (2)
A ll M ining &
M ining Serv (1)
Total Employment Growth by Major Segment of the Montana Economy, 1998 to 2008
2,493
3,446
4,406
5,113
5,882
14,441
15,384
28,044
30,107
-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Farm, Ranch, Ag Serv (2)
Manuf., Transpt, Utilities (3)
Local Govt, incl schools (1)
Fed & State Govt (3)
All Mining & Mining Serv (1)
Wholesale & Retail Trade (2)
Other Services (1)
Arts, Ent, Recr, Accom, Food (2)
Health Care Services (1)
Construction & Real Estate (2)
Prof,Tech,Fin&Bus Serv (6)

Adjusted Jobs
Projections for
Montana by Major
Industry

The MDLI projections were
carefully analyzed and
adjusted in a number of
areas.  The biggest
adjustment was in the
assumed growth in
healthcare services that is
likely between 2010 and
2020.   Healthcare jobs are
projected to grow at 34%
nationally and MDLI’s
projection of 15% growth was
adjusted upward to 25%,
largely because the 65 and
older population will increase
by 50% during this period.

The MDLI projection for
manufacturing job growth
was lowered.  Most of the
losses have been in wood
products and primary metals
and these jobs may not
return.  Manufacturing
nationally will continue to
decline.  Mining jobs were
adjusted higher by a small
number.
Montana Employment by Industry Grouping: 2000, 2010, 2020 Adjusted Projections
4,386
6,867
16,384
22,774
7,453
14,135
15,892
20,408
39,497
45,117
39,173
55,942
70,371
62,548
4,595
8,067
17,884
29,995
7,816
14,808
17,643
22,620
41,779
43,586
49,302
67,022
76,551
78,185
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Ag, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting
Mining
Manufacturing
Construction
GOODS-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
Information
Transpt., Warehsg, Utilities
Other Services
Financial Activities
Educational Services
(pub/priv)
All Govt.(less ed/health)
Profes. & Business Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Trade (retl/whol)
Healthcare & Social Asst.
(pub/prv)
Source: Swanson, using MDLI estimates and projections
2020 proj
2010 est
2000

Projected Job
Growth in
Montana by
Industry Grouping
– Adjusted

With the adjustment to
healthcare, it is projected to
add 15,600 new jobs
between 2010 and 2020, a
25% increase. Leisure and
hospitality will add over
11,000 new jobs – the MDLI
projection. Professional and
business services will add
over 10,000 jobs (MDLI
projection). Construction
will add over 7,000.
Under these projections and
adjustments, total jobs in
Montana will rise to almost
480,000 – an increase of
59,000 with almost 83% of
these new jobs in services.
Jobs in all aspects of mining,
including oil and gas, would
increase by only 1,200 jobs,
even with an adjustment
upward from MDLI’s
estimate.
Montana Jobs Growth by Industry Grouping: 2000-10 & 2010-20 (Adjusted)
19
2,178
-5,778
2,543
8,666
-435
550
1,095
1,990
2,617
1,705
8,816
6,644
15,154
209
1,200
1,500
7,221
-1,531
363
673
1,751
2,212
2,282
6,180
10,129
11,080
15,637
-8,000 -4,000 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000
Ag, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting
Mining
Manufacturing
Construction
GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES
All Govt.(less ed/health)
Information
Transpt., Warehsg, Utilities
Other Services
Financial Activities
Educational Services (pub/priv)
Trade (retl/w hol)
Profes. & Business Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Healthcare & Social Asst. (pub/prv)
SERVICES-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES
Source: Swanson, using MDLI estimates and projections (adj. healthcare, manufacturing, mining)
'10-'20
'00-'10

Projected Job
Growth in Montana
by Major
Occupational
Groups

Projections for future jobs by
industry can be generally
translated into projections for
jobs according to
occupational categories and
the results of this are shown
in the chart.  Job figures in
this chart also include over
40,000 jobs not included in
the previous analysis by
industry that are self-
employed and unpaid family
primary jobs.

Of the 22 major occupational
groups, the one with the
highest number of jobs in
Office and Administrative
Support and these are
projected to grow to 79,500
jobs by 2020, up from 71,200
in 2010.  Jobs in trade-related
occupations also are large in
number.  Construction and
Extraction jobs will exceed
36,000 by 2020.
Montana Employment for Major Occupational Groups, 2010 & 2020 Projected (adjusted)
4,808
4,795
6,369
7,953
6,909
8,375
8,662
8,852
16,125
16,421
16,841
18,796
15,851
20,434
20,563
26,897
28,019
26,835
29,990
44,724
53,629
71,197
4,814
5,216
7,501
7,769
7,898
9,181
9,597
9,999
17,545
18,627
19,723
20,165
20,535
22,416
22,849
29,021
30,312
33,177
36,446
51,711
59,120
79,501
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
Farming, Fishing, & Forestry
Legal Services
Computer & Mathematical
Life, Physical, & Social Sciences
Architecture & Engineering
Protective Services
Arts, Design, Entertmt, Sports & Media
Community & Social Services
Production
Business & Financial Operations
Personal Care & Service
Management services
Healthcare Support
Installation, Maintenance, & Repair
Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maint
Education, Training, & Library
Transportation & Material Moving
Healthcare Practitioners & Technicians
Construction & Extraction
Food Preparation & Serving Related
Sales and Related
Office & Administrative Support
Source: Swanson, using MDLI estimates and projections (adjusted)
2020 Projected Emp
(Adjusted)
2010 Estimated Emp

Projected Job
Growth by
Occupational
Group, 2010 to
2020

This chart focuses on job
growth only over the ten-year
period into the future.  The
total number of jobs will
increase by just over 13% and
more than 60,000 jobs.  Jobs
in Office and Administrative
support will grow the most,
up by 8,300 or an increase of
12% and accounting for 14%
of all new jobs.  If you add the
seven largest occupational
categories shown in “teal”
that are related to
professional and business
services, these will account
for 26% of all new jobs.

Job growth in the two
occupational areas directly
tied to healthcare, shown in
blue, will account for over
18% of all new jobs.  Jobs in
trade areas (orange) will
account for over 25%.
Projected Montana Job Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010 to 2020 (Adjusted)
-184
6
421
806
935
989
1,132
1,147
1,369
1,420
1,982
2,124
2,206
2,286
2,293
2,882
4,684
5,491
6,342
6,456
6,987
8,304
-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Life, Physical, & Social Sciences
Legal Services
Protective Services
Arts, Design, Entertmt, Sports & Media
Computer & Mathematical
Community & Social Services
Management services
Production
Installation, Maintenance, & Repair
Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maint
Healthcare Support
Sales and Related
Healthcare Practitioners & Technicians

Projected Job
Growth Nationally
Job growth as projected by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
that is expected nationally for
each of the major occupational
groups is shown in the chart.
Office and administrative
support is also the largest
occupation nationally and is
projected to grow by 10% and
account for over 11% of all
new jobs. If you add together
all of the job growth in areas
closely tied to professional and
business services (teal), these
will account for 28% of all new
jobs.
Jobs for Healthcare
Practitioners and Techs will
increase by 26% and account
for 10% of all new jobs. This
along with jobs in Healthcare
support occupations will
account for 17% of all new jobs
nationally. Job growth in the
three areas tied to trade will
account for 21% of all new
jobs.
Projected U.S. Employment Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010-20 (thousands)
131
191
253
343
357
365
582
616
664
778
800
1,093
1,173
1,329
1,337
1,404
1,407
1,444
1,869
2,020
2,336
-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Legal
Life, Physical & Social Science
Arts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports & Media
Production
Protective Services
Community & Social Service
Management
Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance
Computer and Mathematical
Installation, Maintenance & Repair
Healthcare Support
Sales & Related
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical

Total Job Openings
by Major
Occupational Group
Nationally
Jobs will be available in the
economy because of growth
in the shear number of jobs in
certain areas of work. But
many more openings will
occur because people leave
jobs, either through
retirement or movement to
another occupation.
The chart here shows the
total number of “openings”
for jobs across the full range
of occupational groups for
the nation as a whole. Next
to each occupation also is
noted what jobs in these
groups as a whole pay
(median annual wage).
Office and administrative
support has the most job
growth as well as the most
job openings, allowing for
replacements.
Projected Total U.S Job Openings by Major Occupational Group, 2010-20
291
344
546
798
1,067
1,098
1,196
1,438
1,655
2,026
2,042
2,231
2,555
2,568
2,583
2,760
3,398
3,591
3,597
5,103
6,454
7,450
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
Farming, Fishing, & Forestry ($19,630)
Legal ($74,580)
Life, Physical & Social Science ($58,530)
Architecture & Engineering ($70,610)
Arts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports & Media ($42,870)
Community & Social Service ($39,280)
Protective Services ($36,660)
Computer and Mathematical ($73,720)
Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maint ($22,490)
Installation, Maintenance & Repair ($40,120)
Healthcare Support ($24,760)
Production ($30,330)
Business & Financial Operations ($60,670)
Management ($91,440)
Personal Care & Service ($20,640)
Construction & Extraction ($39,080)
Education, Training, & Library ($45,690)
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical ($58,490)
Transportation & Material Moving ($28,400)
Food Preparation & Serving Related ($18,770)
Sales & Related ($24,370)
Office & Administrative Support ($30,710)
Source: BLS, U.S. Dept. of Labor (January, 2012)(Median annual wages for each group in 2010)

Comparison of
Median Annual
Wages for Jobs
within Occupational
Groups
The 22 occupational groups
are arrayed in the chart
according to median annual
wage as determined in
national surveys, with the one
with the highest wage at the
top and lowest at the bottom.
Curiously, while jobs in
“services” as opposed to
production and
manufacturing are thought to
be low-paying, jobs in six
occupations closely aligned
with jobs in professional,
administrative, business, and
financial services have the
highest wages. This reflects
that jobs in many of these
occupational areas also
require the higher levels of
education and training.
Major Occupational Groups by Median Annual Wage in the U.S., 2010
$18,770
$19,630
$20,640
$22,490
$24,370
$24,760
$28,400
$30,330
$30,710
$36,660
$39,080
$39,280
$40,120
$42,870
$45,690
$58,490
$58,530
$60,670
$70,610
$73,720
$74,580
$91,440
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,00
0
Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance
Sales & Related
Healthcare Support
Production
Protective Services
Community & Social Service
Installation, Maintenance & Repair
Arts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports & Media
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical
Life, Physical & Social Science
Computer and Mathematical
Legal
Management
Source: BLS, U.S. Dept. of Labor (January, 2012)

Comparing
Projected Job
Growth by
Occupational Group
in MT vs. U.S.
The chart shows projected
percentage growth in jobs for
each occupational group in
Montana versus nation-wide
as projected by BLS.
Overall employment will grow
by 13.1% in Montana versus
14.3% nationally. Projected
growth is very similar for jobs
in construction and
extraction, healthcare
support, healthcare
practitioners, and many other
areas.
Percentage Job Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010-2020, MT vs. U.S.
13.1%
0.1%
7.3%
7.9%
8.2%
8.8%
9.6%
9.7%
11.7%
10.2%
10.8%
11.1%
8.8%
13.0%
13.4%
23.6%
14.3%
15.6%
17.1%
17.8%
29.5%
21.5%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Life, Physical, & Social Science Occup
Farming, Fishing, & Forestry Occup
Management Occupations
Education, Training, & Library Occup
Transportation & Material Moving Occup
Legal Occupations
Protective Service Occupations
Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Occup
Office & Administrative Support Occup
Sales and Related Occupations
Arts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports, & Media Occup
Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maint. Occup
Production Occupations
Community & Social Services Occup
Business and Financial Operations Occupations
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Occupations
Architecture & Engineering Occup
Food Preparation & Serving Related Occup
Personal Care & Service Occupations
Computer & Mathematical Occup
Healthcare Support Occupations
Construction and Extraction Occupations
Overall Employment
Source: U.S. data from BLS and Montana data from MT Dept. of Labor and Industry (adjusted)
MT
US

Job Projections for
Montana by
“Groupings” of
Occupational
Groups
This chart organizes the 22
major occupational groups
and jobs estimated for 2010
and projected for 2020
(adjusted) into six overall
groupings including:
 Administrative,
Management, Financial
 Professional, Technical,
Scientific, Creative
 Healthcare and Healthcare
Support
 Sales, Hospitality, Food
services, Personal Care
 Transportation,
Production, Construction,
Maintenance, Ag and
Forestry
Montana Jobs for Major Occupational Groups by Grouping, 2010 & 2020 Proj (adj) (US med wage)
4,814
17,545
22,416
22,849
30,312
36,446
19,723
51,711
59,120
9,181
9,999
29,021
20,535
33,177
5,216
7,501
7,769
7,898
9,597
18,627
20,165
79,501
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Farming, Fishing, & Forestry ($19,630)
Production ($30,330)
Installation, Maintenance & Repair ($40,120)
Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maint ($22,490)
Transportation & Material Moving ($28,400)
Construction & Extraction ($39,080)
TRANSPT/PROD/CONST/MAINT/AG/FOR/FISH
Personal Care & Service ($20,640)
Food Preparation & Serving Related ($24,370)
Sales & Related ($24,370)
SALES/HOSPT/FOOD SV./PERSONAL CARE/ARTS
Protective Services ($36,660)
Community & Social Service ($39,280)
Education, Training, & Library ($45,690)
EDUC/TRAINING/POLICE& FIRE/SOCIAL SERV
Healthcare Support ($24,760)
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical ($58,490)
HEALTHCARE& HEALTHCARESUPPORT
Legal ($74,580)
Computer and Mathematical ($73,720)
Life, Physical & Social Science ($58,530)
Architecture & Engineering ($70,610)
Arts, Design, Entertmt, Sports & Media ($42,870)
PROFESSIONAL/TECHNICAL/SCIENTIFIC/CREATIVE
Business & Financial Operations ($60,670)
Management ($91,440)
Office & Administrative Support ($30,710)
ADMINISTRATIVE/MANAGEMENT/FINANCIAL
So urc e: S wans o n us ing M D LI es tima te s and pro jec tio ns (S ept. 2011)(adj. to he a lthc are, o ffice /adm in, pro duc tio n, e xtra ct)
2020
2010

Detailed Occupations where job
growth will be greatest in
Montana
Only 40 of 840 detailed occupations have
projected growth for 2010-20 greater than
380 jobs. These account for 45% of all
primary jobs in Montana and will account
for 55% of all job growth and 44% of all
replacement openings.
Those in healthcare services have a blue
background. Those in professional and
business services have a light blue or teal
background. Those in sales and retail trade
have a light brown or tan background.
Those in education, training, and community
and protective services have yellow
backgrounds. And those somewhere in
transportation, construction, extraction,
production, and agriculture have gray
backgrounds.
The single occupation with the highest
projected growth is “registered nurses,”
projected to add over 2,000 jobs. Four
others in healthcare (blue backgrounds) also
will add a lot of jobs: home health aides
(1,643); nursing aides, orderlies, and
attendants (1,416); licensed practical and
licensed vocational nurses (678); dental
assistants (383); and medical assistants
(381).
1/ Job projections data from the Montana
Dept. of Labor & Industry web site (and
their Sept., 2011, jobs projections)
2/ Projections data from MDLI with
adjustments made by Swanson (July, 2012)
Detailed Occupations with Largest Projected Job Growth in Montana, 2010 -20
2010 2010-20 2010-20 MT Med. US Med. Education &
Detailed Occupation Est/1 Growth/2 Replace/1 Wage/1 Wage/3 Training/3
Registered Nurses 8,887 2,098 1,550 $56,790 $64,690 5 1 1
Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 12,195 1,732 1,470 $28,830 $34,030 2 1 4
Cashiers 13,438 1,678 6,040 $18,500 $18,500 1 1 2
Retail Salespersons 15,687 1,672 4,380 $20,920 $20,670 1 1 2
Home Health Aides 4,012 1,643 400 $20,920 $20,560 1 1 2
Combined Food Prep & Serving Wkrs, Incl Fast Food 9,518 1,635 2,020 #N/A $17,950 1 1 2
Waiters and Waitresses 8,772 1,497 4,840 $17,470 $18,330 1 1 2
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 6,486 1,416 650 $23,160 $24,010 3 1 1
Carpenters 6,286 1,268 780 $34,500 $39,530 2 1 3
Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 4,569 1,085 550 $23,860 $23,400 1 1 2
Customer Service Representatives 4,610 1,050 1,450 $28,990 $30,460 2 1 2
Personal and Home Care Aides 2,840 941 350 $20,080 $19,640 1 1 2
Construction Laborers 3,674 871 250 $33,160 $29,280 1 1 2
Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 6,918 826 1,240 $36,460 $37,770 2 3 2
Office Clerks, General 5,381 787 730 $23,330 $26,610 2 1 2
Cooks, Restaurant 4,058 757 1,040 $19,460 $22,140 1 2 4
Accountants and Auditors 3,274 740 550 $47,760 $61,690 6 1 1
Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 3,077 678 960 $35,670 $40,380 3 1 1
Medical Secretaries 2,307 675 310 $27,160 $30,530 2 1 4
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 4,879 596 1,120 $20,930 $21,290 1 1 2
Receptionists and Information Clerks 3,133 587 850 $22,830 $25,240 2 1 2
Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 5,625 584 1,010 $18,240 $19,300 1 1 2
1st-Line Supers/Managers of Constr Trades & Extrac 2,620 567 510 #N/A $58,680 2 4 1
Operating Engineers & Other Constr Equipt Operators 2,571 560 440 #N/A $40,400 2 1 4
1st-Line Supers/Managers of Office & Admin Pers. 3,695 544 830 #N/A $47,460 2 3 1
Electricians 2,075 541 500 $52,130 $48,250 2 1 3
1st-Line Supers/Managers of Retail Sales Wkers 6,745 534 1,450 #N/A $35,820 2 3 1
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 4,145 521 640 $31,000 $38,460 2 1 4
Child Care Workers 4,648 520 1,360 $17,700 $19,300 2 1 2
Janitors & Cleaners, Exc Maids & Housekpg Cleaners 8,075 508 1,530 #N/A $22,210 1 1 2
Elementary School Teachers, Exc Special Ed 4,786 472 1,090 #N/A $51,660 6 1 5
First-Line Supers/Managers of Food Prep/Serv 2,413 455 230 #N/A $29,560 2 3 1
Food Preparation Workers 4,151 446 1,490 $16,960 $19,100 1 1 2
Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Exc Tech 3,995 441 930 #N/A $52,440 2 1 4
General and Operations Managers 5,100 433 1,480 $70,280 $94,400 5 3 2
Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 9,976 387 1,340 $26,310 $30,830 2 1 4
Security Guards 1,776 385 370 $22,740 $23,920 2 1 1
Social and Human Service Assistants 1,483 383 310 $23,310 $28,200 2 1 2
Dental Assistants 1,087 383 200 $29,810 $33,470 3 1 2
Medical Assistants 1,041 381 120 $27,290 $28,860 2 1 2
SUBTOTALS 210,008 33,275 47,360
Shares of the Totals 45.4% 55.0% 44.1%
Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 12,195 1,732 1,470
Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 12,195 1,732 1,470 $28,830 $34,030 2 1 4
Cashiers 13,438 1,678 6,040 $18,500 $18,500 1 1 2
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 6,486 1,416 650 $23,160 $24,010
$28,830 $34,030 2 1 4
Cashiers 13,438 1,678 6,040 $18,500 $18,500 1 1 2
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 6,486 1,416 650 $23,160 $24,010 3 1 1
Carpenters 6,286 1,268 780 $34,500 $39,530 2 1 3
Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 6,918 826 1,240 $36,460 $37,770 2 3
3 1 1
Carpenters 6,286 1,268 780 $34,500 $39,530 2 1 3
Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 6,918 826 1,240 $36,460 $37,770 2 3 2
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 4,879 596 1,120 $20,930 $21,290 1 1
2
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 4,879 596 1,120 $20,930 $21,290 1 1 2
Electricians 2,075 541 500 $52,130 $48,250 2 1
2
Electricians 2,075 541 500 $52,130 $48,250 2 1 3
First-Line Supers/Managers of Food Prep/Serv 2,413 455 230 #N/A
3
First-Line Supers/Managers of Food Prep/Serv 2,413 455 230 #N/A $29,560 2 3 1
Security Guards 1,776 385 370 $22,740 $23,920 2 1 1
Social and Human Service Assistants 1,483 383 310 $23,310 $28,200
$29,560 2 3 1
Security Guards 1,776 385 370 $22,740 $23,920 2 1 1
Social and Human Service Assistants 1,483 383 310 $23,310 $28,200 2 1 2
SUBTOTALS 210,008 33,275 47,360
2 1 2
SUBTOTALS 210,008 33,275 47,360

Education and training for
projected jobs
Education and training requirements and
required work experience for these detailed
occupations also is indicated for each of the
40 detailed occupations with the greatest
projected increase in jobs.
The education column (maroon colored
numbers) indicates the “typical education
required for entry” into each of the
occupations. The next column under
training with the numbers shown in “red”
indicates how much experience in related or
relevant work is ordinarily required for
entry. The last column with numbers in
“blue” indicates years of “on-the-job
experience” ordinarily required for
“competency” in the various occupations.
All of these ratings are derived from national
survey work done in conjunction with
development of the SOC system and was
retrieved on the BLS web site.
For the 40 detailed occupations with the
largest projected growth in Montana, only
two require a college degree – accountants
and auditors (requiring a Bachelor’s degree
for entry or Code 6) and elementary school
teachers (also requiring a Bachelor’s
degree). Two require an Associate’s degree
(Code 5), including registered nurses and
general operations managers. So, only four
of the 40 occupations require either an
Associate’s or Bachelor’s degree for entry.
The coding system used in the tables for education (typical education required for entry, as
contained in the SOC system) is as follows:
Code 1: Less than a high school diploma
Code 2: High school diploma or equivalent
Code 3: Postsecondary non-degree award
Code 4: Some college, but no degree
Code 5: Associate’s degree
Code 6: Bachelor’s degree
Code 7: Master’s degree
Code 8: Doctoral or professional degree
Of the 40 detailed jobs with the biggest growth, fully half (20) ordinarily require only a high
school diploma for entry (Code 2). And 13 of the 40 require less than a high school diploma. The
figure below shows the total number of jobs in Montana in 2010 and 2020 for each educational
level assigned to each detailed occupation.

The upper chart shows the share of 2020
jobs projected for both Montana and the
U.S. as a whole by education requirement.
Not only are education requirements for
Montana jobs not changing much from 2010
to 2020, but they are moderately below
education requirements for jobs projected
nationally by 2020. For example, nationally
16 percent of all jobs in 2020 will require a
Bachelor’s degree versus only 12.2 percent
of Montana jobs. On the other hand, the
share of all 2010 jobs requiring less than a
high school diploma is 29 percent of all jobs
in Montana versus 25.2 percent of all jobs
nationally. At the highest end of the
spectrum the share of jobs requiring a
doctoral or professional degree is 2.8
percent in Montana versus 3.3 percent
nationally.
Looking at education requirements of new
jobs only projected from growth between
2010 and 2020 (lower chart), of the
projected job growth nation-wide, 18.6
percent will require a Bachelor’s degree, 2.2
percent will require a Master’s degree, and
4.5 percent will require a Doctoral or
Professional degree. These are all higher
percentages than for job growth projected
in Montana. Whereas 30.9 percent of all
Montana job growth is in jobs requiring less
than a high school diploma. This compares
with 23.1 percent nationally.
Education Requirements for Entry into 2020 Jobs, Montana vs. U.S.
29.0%
43.7%
5.0%
0.4%
5.6%
12.2%
1.3%
2.8%
25.2%
43.0%
4.7%
0.6%
5.8%
16.0%
1.5%
3.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Le s s tha n
H .S . D iplo m a
(C o de 1)
H .S . D iplo m a
o r Equiv a le nt
(2)
P o s ts e c o nd
no n-de gre e
a wa rd (3)
S o m e
C o lle ge , no
de gre e (4)
A s s o c ia te 's
D e gre e
(C o de 5)
B a c he lo r's
D e gre e
(C o de 6)
M a s te r's
D e gre e
(C o de 7)
D o c to ra l o r
P ro fe s
D e gre e (8)
MT U.S.
Fig. 34: Education Required for Projected Job Growth from 2010-20, MT vs. U.S.
30.9%
39.8%
6.4%
0.4%
5.9%
12.0%
1.4%
3.1%
23.1%
38.3%
5.6%
0.7%
7.1%
18.6%
2.2%
4.5%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Less than H.S. Diploma (Code 1)
H.S. Diploma or Equivalent (2)
Postsecond non-degree award (3)
Some College, no degree (4)
Associate's Degree (Code 5)
Bachelor's Degree (Code 6)
Master's Degree (Code 7)
Doctoral or Profes Degree (8)
U.S.
MT

Postsecondary education required
for Montana job openings as
projected
There are 23 detailed occupations out of the
840 that are projected to have more than
400 total openings in Montana between
2010 and 2020 and that require post-
secondary educations. These are shown at
the right. At the top are ones requiring
doctoral or professional degrees (Code 8)
and there are two: Lawyers with projected
openings totaling 804 and pharmacists with
openings of 416. The U.S. median wage for
both of these exceeds $100,000.
Eleven of these require a Bachelor’s degree
for entry (Code 6). These range from
elementary school teachers (1,562
openings) and secondary school teachers
(1,308) to accountants (1,290), recreation
workers (530), human resource specialists
(499), civil engineers (458), computer
network systems and data communications
analysts (411), and child and family social
workers (404). U.S. median wages for these
range from as high as $77,560 for civil
engineers to as low as $22,260 for
recreation workers.
Some of these requiring Bachelor’s degrees
also have further requirements to establish
“competency,” also shown in the table to
the far right. Those with Code 5 in the blue
numbers are ones where a residency or
internship is ordinarily required to show this
competency.
Detailed occupations in Figure 36 requiring Associate’s degrees include registered nurses,
general operations managers, forest and conservation technicians, construction managers, and
computer support specialists. Jobs with the most openings that require some type of
postsecondary, non-degree award include nursing aides, licensed practical and vocational
nurses, dental assistants, and hairdressers and cosmetologists.

Trends Shaping Future Job Growth in Montana
Population Growth and Aging Factors constraining Future Labor Force Expansion in Montana
The U.S. labor force will grow slowly and become much older as the baby-boom generation (those born between 1947 and 1963)
ages. There are 77 million baby boomers and they will move entirely from the “prime age” for labor force participation to the 55-
years-and-older group by 2020, with lower participation rates. This effect is somewhat offset by rising labor force participation
among older workers.
Montana experienced almost unparalleled economic expansion for most of the period since the early 1990s, leading up to the
recent national recession and slowdown. This growth accommodated as well as spurred steady growth in the state’s labor force.
Between 2010 and 2020 the 65 and older population of Montana will rise from about 15% to 20%, and continue to increase to 23
to 24% by 2025. The ratio between the size of Montana’s labor force and the population under 65 was consistently about 60%
through the ‘90s and up until more recently, where it rose to 61%. This will continue to rise to about 64% by 2020, reflecting
additions to the work force by older adults working beyond 65. A total labor force of about 540,000 in 2020 with 4%
unemployment would provide employment of 518,000.
Employment Trends in Montana leading up to the Recession
Total employment in Montana (including all full- and part-time jobs) grew by 28% in the ‘90s as compared with 20% growth
nationwide, and by over 12% in the most recent decade (2000-10), as compared to only 5% growth nationally.
Looking at the path Montana’s economy was on in terms of job growth over this recent ten-year period, prior to the downturn
(2000-08) - the largest increase in jobs among sectors was by construction where jobs grew by 16,200, accounting for 15.4% of all
new jobs. Of course, construction also was among the sectors hardest hit by the recent recession with large job losses in the last
several years, beginning in 2008. Jobs in health care services grew by 15,400 (14.6% of all new jobs). Jobs in real estate services
increased by 11,900 (11.3% of all new jobs), and in professional and technical services by 11,700 (11.1% of jobs), and in
administrative and waste services by 9,200 (8.8% of jobs). These five major sectors together – construction, health care, real
estate services, professional and technical services, and administrative and waste services - accounted for 61% of all new jobs in
Montana over this period.

Projected Industry Employment Growth
Not all industries or occupations are expected to recover completely; others are expected to recover and have continued growth.
With adjustments to healthcare, manufacturing, and mining jobs, total jobs in Montana would rise to almost 480,000 by 2020 – an
increase of 59,000 jobs and with 83% of these new jobs somewhere in services.
Among industry groupings, Healthcare jobs will increase the most, rising by 15,637, a 25% increase, and 27% of all new jobs in
Montana.
Jobs in Leisure and Hospitality will increase by 11,080, an increase of 20%, and 19% of all new jobs.
The 3rd
largest increase in jobs will be in Professional and Business services, with these rising by 10,129, an increase of 26% and
accounting for 17% of all new jobs.
Construction jobs will increase by 7,221, a 32% increase and 12% of all new jobs. But, even with this increase, the total
construction jobs in 2020 will still lag the peak number in 2007.
If you add Leisure and Hospitality with Trade, their job growth will account for 29% of all new jobs. If you add together
Professional and Business Services, Financial Activities, and Information, these together will account for 22% of all new jobs. Over
3/4ths of all new jobs will be in Trade, Business services, and Healthcare.
Projected Job Growth by Major Occupational Group
Of the 22 major occupational groups, the one with the highest number of jobs in Office and Administrative Support and these are
projected to grow to 79,500 jobs by 2020, up from 71,200 in 2010. Jobs in trade-related occupations also are large in number.
Construction and Extraction jobs will exceed 36,000 by 2020.
The total number of jobs will increase by just over 13% and more than 60,000 jobs. Jobs in Office and Administrative support will
grow the most, up by 8,300 or an increase of 12% and accounting for 14% of all new jobs. If you add the seven largest
occupational categories shown in “teal” that are related to professional and business services, these will account for 26% of all
new jobs.
Job growth in the two occupational areas directly tied to healthcare, shown in blue, will account for over 18% of all new jobs.
Jobs in trade areas (orange) will account for over 25%.

What increasingly really counts in local area
economic development in this new economy?
The Quality of your community .. infrastructure, schools, neighborhoods, commercial development,
streets, parks, arts and cultural amenities, identity, energy, vitality, multi-dimensionality, visual appeal,
surrounding environs, …
The Quality of your work force .. diverse, appropriately educated, and adaptive with training and
education opportunities at all levels and nearby multi-faceted, well-delivered programs in workforce
development
The Quality of your surrounding environment .. not just parks and attractive, well-planned
neighborhoods, downtowns, and commercial districts, but landscapes and natural amenities like streams,
lakes, mountains, forests, open spaces, etc.
Although most forces driving change in the economy are supra-community in nature – technological
change, transportation developments, new products, major demographic shifts, global financial forces,
etc. - so much of what really counts in area economic vitality .. is within the reach of community leaders
and decision makers. .. they can help create and sustain the types of positive attributes that attract,
nurture, and stimulate economic energy and vitality over time.
- Larry Swanson, O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West, U. of Montana

Dr. Larry Swanson

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