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Emerging Vehicle and Fuel Technologies For Clean, Efficient Transportation Clean Transportation  Technologies & Solutions  SM Bill Van Amburg Senior Vice President Mobility 2030 – San Francisco, CA August 18, 2009
Mission Statement ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CALSTART:  A Strategic Broker for Advanced Transportation  National and International in Project Areas 2009 130+ Worldwide Member Network 4 Offices in US Four focus areas: Tech Commercialization Fleet, Port Consulting Industry Services Policy Development
CALSTART Has 130+ Member/ Participants  ( partial list )            
Find Combination Strategies Air Quality Climate   Change Energy Security We must find solutions that address all three competing needs Integrated Solutions Needed There is no one “Silver Bullet” solution
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2030: We Can’t Get There in Vehicles ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],California Secure Transportation Energy Partnership (CalSTEP)  Action Plan
Sources of GHG  ,[object Object]
Magnitude of California’s Challenge to 2020 and Beyond 80% Reduction ~ 341 MMT CO2e 15% above 1990 levels today 1990 Emission Baseline ~173 MMT CO 2 e Reduction 80% Reduction ~341 MMT CO 2 e
International Energy Agency:  6 New Saudis Needed by 2030
EPA’s Light Duty GHG Standard  Average of 250 g CO2/mile by 2016 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reductions Beyond Pavley Needed in Ground Transportation ,[object Object]
Possible Drivers of Truck Fuel Efficiency: Carbon Cutting carbon means reducing fuel burn and using lower carbon fuels. This chart illustrates how Class 8 fuel efficiency might need to improve if it had to tackle carbon reduction alone. Today   2020  2030   2040 2050 Discussion estimates only Need fuels and efficiency combined
Observation: Need  Combination Strategies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Nation’s Most Advanced Biofuel Hybrid Vehicle ,[object Object],[object Object]
Significant Growth in Hybrid Trucks ,[object Object],[object Object],36 Trucks Took Part in HTUF Conference Ride and Drive – South Bend, IN October 2008
Wal-Mart Class 8 Demo ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Freightliner Innovation Truck ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
VW Shows Turbo/Super Charged  CNG Concept Vehicle ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Photo: Media.Photobucket.com CALSTART NewsNotes, 03/03/09
Battery Electric Vehicles Re-Emerging as Real Option Mitsubishi IMiEV Nissan Leaf Daimler Electric Smart Chevy Volt E-REV Tesla Roadster Electric Mini Chrysler “Peapod” & Others?
Smith Building More Electric Trucks in US; Modec Teaming with Navistar ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Toyota vs. GM vs. Ford: Working on Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Ford PHEV Escape
The Fuel Landscape is Changing ,[object Object],Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab, UC Berkeley
Graphical Depiction of  Indirect Emissions Source: Alex Farrell, UC Berkeley
Where Are Biofuels Headed? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Low Carbon Fuel Standards Are Emerging ,[object Object]
Observation: Closer Link Between Fuel and Region/Person ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Waste Syngas or  Biogas Biomethane Alcohol fuels Electricity  production Standard fuels Hydrogen
Power Grid Changing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1
Vehicle to Grid- Integration of Transportation and Power Grid Arrows indicate direction of power flow (Kempton &Tomic, JPS, 2005) 2
Green-Gas Principle – Can Make “Natural Gas” Even Greener Biogas Natural gas Residential housing Industries Filling stations Swedish officials believe biomethane can meet 20% of future transportation needs
Swedish Biomethane Vehicles
First Trucks to Run on Biomethane In California ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],CBG Truck In Tulare Tulare Covered Lagoon Producing biogas
Observation: Transportation Management Systems Needed, Will Grow ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Vehicles & Electric Grid ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],7
V2G Provides New Source of Distributed Generation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],6
Observation: Vehicle Ownership  Models Likely to Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Observation: Cities Likely to Change to Drive More Efficient Transportation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Oil Demand in North America Began Declining Before Economic Downturn Price Signal Drives Behavior – CA Saw Similar Response During Electricity Crisis in 2000-2001 Peak in Oil Prices
Price Signals: Possibly Strongest Driver of Fuel Efficiency, LC Fuels 2008   2020  2030   2040 2050 Maintaining cost/mile for fuel means increasing efficiency or using lower cost fuels or blends. This chart illustrates how Class 8 fuel efficiency might need to improve to maintain steady fuel cost/mile. Discussion estimates only
Plan Beyond the Roller Coaster ,[object Object],$2.70
Primary Actions  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],CalSTEP Recommendations
Summary: 2030 Observations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Clean Transportation Technologies & Solutions   SM www.calstart.org For info contact: Bill Van Amburg (626) 744-5600 [email_address]

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CALSTART Van Amburg Mobility 2030 8 18 09 Final

  • 1. Emerging Vehicle and Fuel Technologies For Clean, Efficient Transportation Clean Transportation Technologies & Solutions SM Bill Van Amburg Senior Vice President Mobility 2030 – San Francisco, CA August 18, 2009
  • 2.
  • 3. CALSTART: A Strategic Broker for Advanced Transportation National and International in Project Areas 2009 130+ Worldwide Member Network 4 Offices in US Four focus areas: Tech Commercialization Fleet, Port Consulting Industry Services Policy Development
  • 4. CALSTART Has 130+ Member/ Participants ( partial list )            
  • 5. Find Combination Strategies Air Quality Climate Change Energy Security We must find solutions that address all three competing needs Integrated Solutions Needed There is no one “Silver Bullet” solution
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. Magnitude of California’s Challenge to 2020 and Beyond 80% Reduction ~ 341 MMT CO2e 15% above 1990 levels today 1990 Emission Baseline ~173 MMT CO 2 e Reduction 80% Reduction ~341 MMT CO 2 e
  • 10. International Energy Agency: 6 New Saudis Needed by 2030
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. Possible Drivers of Truck Fuel Efficiency: Carbon Cutting carbon means reducing fuel burn and using lower carbon fuels. This chart illustrates how Class 8 fuel efficiency might need to improve if it had to tackle carbon reduction alone. Today 2020 2030 2040 2050 Discussion estimates only Need fuels and efficiency combined
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. Battery Electric Vehicles Re-Emerging as Real Option Mitsubishi IMiEV Nissan Leaf Daimler Electric Smart Chevy Volt E-REV Tesla Roadster Electric Mini Chrysler “Peapod” & Others?
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24. Graphical Depiction of Indirect Emissions Source: Alex Farrell, UC Berkeley
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29. Vehicle to Grid- Integration of Transportation and Power Grid Arrows indicate direction of power flow (Kempton &Tomic, JPS, 2005) 2
  • 30. Green-Gas Principle – Can Make “Natural Gas” Even Greener Biogas Natural gas Residential housing Industries Filling stations Swedish officials believe biomethane can meet 20% of future transportation needs
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38. Oil Demand in North America Began Declining Before Economic Downturn Price Signal Drives Behavior – CA Saw Similar Response During Electricity Crisis in 2000-2001 Peak in Oil Prices
  • 39. Price Signals: Possibly Strongest Driver of Fuel Efficiency, LC Fuels 2008 2020 2030 2040 2050 Maintaining cost/mile for fuel means increasing efficiency or using lower cost fuels or blends. This chart illustrates how Class 8 fuel efficiency might need to improve to maintain steady fuel cost/mile. Discussion estimates only
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43. Clean Transportation Technologies & Solutions SM www.calstart.org For info contact: Bill Van Amburg (626) 744-5600 [email_address]

Editor's Notes

  1. 2009-03-03 : VW Unveils CNG Concept at Geneva Auto Show DESCRIPTION -  Says Touran TSI EcoFuel with dual charging via turbocharger and supercharger... CONTENT -  Geneva, Switzerland, March 3, 2009 - Volkswagen this week unveiled five of its newest concepts, touting fuel efficiency across the company brand, reports Automotive News. Fuel efficient diesels include the Polo BlueMotion Concept (3.3 liters/100Km), the Golf BlueMotion (3.8 liters/100Km) and the Passat CC BlueTDI, which the company calls the world's cleanest diesel sedan with an SCR catalytic converter. Also making its world debut, the Touran TSI EcoFuel, a compressed natural gas-powered van which features consumption of just '4.8 kilograms of natural gas per 100 kilometers when paired with a standard 6-speed transmission (129 g/km CO2; 7-speed-DSG: 4.7 kilograms and 126 g/km CO2).'
  2. Source: Smith Electric Vehicles Press Release December 4, 2007 / GreenCarCongress.com December 2007
  3. Source: New York Times, August 25, 2007 / Trademark info from AutoBlogGreen Nov 13, 2007
  4. Total Annual Load in 2020 = 4,500 billion kWh Total Annual Capacity in 2020 = 1,100 GW