A series of visualizations to stimulate thinking about climate change. Using UKCP09 high emissions projections and a variety of scenes from Gloucestershire and the Cotswolds.

1. Visioning Future Landscapes of Climate Change:
Cotswolds ‘Best and Worst’
Cotswolds AONB Landscape Change Seminar
12th June 2014
Dr Robert Berry
Countryside and Community Research Institute
University of Gloucestershire
rberry@glos.ac.uk

2. Overview
• Brief series of visualisations to stimulate thinking and
discussion around future landscape change
• Scenarios based on UKCP09 high emissions projections (2080-
2010) [1]
• Likely rise of 3-5+ degrees
• Consider best (‘constructive’ ‘B’) and worst (‘in denial’ ‘A’) scenarios
for possible responses and their landscape outcomes
• Several images/maps representative of Cotswolds & Glos
views
• Future research plans

3. Considering the linkages…
Temperature
increase
(5 degrees)
Longer season,
faster crop growth,
higher/drier yields.
Grow more
arable (wheat,
rape)
Switch to more
southern / high-
value crops
Increase in pest
and disease
outbreaks
decreased
summer rain,
more winter
storms/floods
1m + Sea level
rise, Severn
Switch to more
resilient (drought
tolerant, robust
over winter)
crops
Pressure for more
residential
development,
infrastructure,
industry?
Severn
Vale/lowland
flooding
Hedge and wall degradation
(reduced need for boundaries)
Grazing stock
relatively more
difficult/low
return?
Need for
renewable
energy
Grow and harvest
more trees – SRC,
woods
Changes in physical structure, more mixed
cover, more man-made elements, more
intensity of use, more variety of colours

4. Baseline
[2]
‘A’ scenario - Little mitigation and adaptation
‘B’ scenario - Focussed mitigation and adaptation
High Wold

5. Crop changes
[3]

6. 6
Landscape change
Enterprise scenarioMitigation and adaptation scenario
[3]

7. Current Environment Agency Flood Alert
Areas + sea level rise of 0.5-1.0m (2100)
Data sources: Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right (2014)

8. Data sources: Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right (2014)
Gloucestershire Severn Vale
Developed Land Use (ha) 307645 16356
Developed Land Use
under threat (ha)
761 761
Percentage 0.25% 4.7%

9. Development Pressures
[4]
[5]

10. Future research: Visioning landscapes of
climate change in Gloucestershire
• Evaluate the use of geospatial technology to make climate
change apparent and meaningful at the local level to the
average community member
– Refining downscaling of global/regional climate models to local
level
– Participatory approach to developing scenarios
• Severn flooding
• Development on Cotswolds scarp
• Agricultural /landscape change on the high wold
• Floodplain Valleys
• Lowland
– Visualise scenarios in 3D GIS
– Disseminate using different media/formats
– Evaluate impact of visualisation on perceptions of climate change

11. References
1. Defra (2009). Adapting to climate change: UK climate projections. Accessed
28/06/2014 from archive.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/.../uk-climate-
projections.pdf
2. Dockerty, T. (2002). Futurescapes: Visualising the potential impacts of
climate change on England’s rural landscapes. Accessed 27/06/2014 from
http://www.uea.ac.uk/~e384/landscapes.htm
3. Dockerty, T.L, A. A.Lovett, G.Sünnenberg, K.J.Appleton, M.Parry (2005).
Visualising the potential impacts of climate change on rural
landscapes. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 29, 297-320.
4. Maws, A. (2014). Photomontages of a proposed housing development in
Gloucestershire. Accessed on 02/06/2014 from
http://andymawdesign.co.uk/portfolio-items/housing-development-
gloucestershire/
5. Sheppard, S. (2012). Visualizing climate change: A Guide to Visual
Communication of Climate Change and Developing Local Solutions.
Routledge.