A talk at the Centre of Governance and Human Rights, Universty of Cambridge by Camilla Toulmin, Director of IIED on the effects of Climate Change in Africa

1. Camilla Toulmin
Director, IIED
“Climate Change in Africa”
Tuesday, February 1st 2011
POLIS

2. What we know about climate change
 CO2 in atmosphere rising faster than anticipated by IPCC
 Warming of climate system
 Systematic change in rainfall in most regions
 Ocean temperatures up + sea level rise
 Loss of arctic sea ice extent
 More intense & extreme weather events

3. Africa - Water and rainfall
 Much more intense water cycle
 Dry areas increasingly drought prone (Northern and
Southern Africa)
 Increased rainfall + greater flood risk (East Africa)
 Uncertain rainfall trends West Africa
 Effects on health, livelihoods, water security – women
and girls worst hit
 Conflicts and trade-offs: shared river basins, hydro vs
irrigation, herding vs farming, urban water transfers
 By 2020, >250m will suffer increased w stress

5. Ouagadougou Floods

10. HADLEY
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11. Africa - Food and farming
 Projected reductions in crop yields in dry areas of
50% by 2020
 Low lying coastal agriculture at risk from sea-water
flooding and salinisation
 Shifts in grazing lands, livestock disease, crop-
livestock relations
 In very few areas, increased temp brings longer
growing season, improved farming conditions
 Major shifts in land productivity and values eg.
irrigated land in dry areas, flood prone lands

12. What measures to help farmers cope?
 Research and technology
 Information and communication tools
 Recognising resource rights
 Bridging local and modern science
 Investing in social infrastructure and learning
 Investing in concrete infrastructure
 Market engagement
 Better governance

13. Adapting to climate change – dealing with risk
and uncertainty
 Building resilience: what’s the difference between risk
and uncertainty?
 Diversification
 Farmland and crop contracts
 Insurance
 Collective mechanisms
 Lessons from adaptation to drought
 Community based adaptation: building local
innovation systems

15. Kilimo Salama process
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16. Re-greening the Sahel

17. Ecosystems, forests and biodiversity
 Poor depend most on environmental
assets + ecosystem services
 Economic value of current rate of loss
estimated at US$2-5 trillion per year
 Increased stress from changes in temp,
rainfall accelerate losses
 Thresholds and tipping points

18. Cities and climate change
 Urban regions most at risk of flooding located in
middle and low income nations – Nile delta, Gulf of
Guinea, Bay of Bengal, cities of Maputo, Beira, Cape
Town, Durban, Mumbai, Shanghai
 95% global population growth in next 30 years will
take place in cities in developing world
 Slums 50%+ of urban population and most vulnerable
to flooding + land slides
 Costs of adaptation to 1m sea-level rise could cost
5-10% of GDP
 Current focus on low C investment needs
complement from adaptation for most vulnerable

19. Urban Population in the LECZ
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
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22. Politics, conflict and security
 Climate change brings significant political
consequences due to uneven impact, winners
and losers – globally, regionally, within
countries
 Large scale migration, impoverishment,
people seeking new land bring potential for
conflict and security
 Especially where guns widespread, young
men without jobs, limited government
capacity = political opportunism

23. Unintended consequences of climate
policy
 Large scale land acquisitions – food
and biofuels – environmental and social
costs

27. New market opportunities?
 Agriculture a principal source of GHG emissions –
can emission reductions be sold to voluntary/formal C
market?
 Defining/measuring GHG service
 Minimising transaction costs
 Risks of smallholder evictions
 REDD+ funding
 Defining/measuring C service
 Managing the funds
 Risks of smallholder evictions

31. Lots of questions…..
 What does climate resilient development look
like?
 What best meanslevel? If accountable govt is
funds, channels,
to support adaptation –
key, how to support this?
 Any positive opportunities from climate
change available to poor?
 Does financial crisis make progress easier or
harder – can we turn crisis into opportunity?
 What impact $200/b oil on agriculture,
transport, trade?