Water for Agriculture in 2050: Are We Ready?
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Presentation delivered by Dr. Uma Lele (Development Economist, USA/India) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico. http://www.borlaug100.org
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Water for Agriculture in 2050: Are We Ready?
- 1. Based on a paper by Uma Lele, Herve Plusquellec and Richard Reidinger The Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security, Cd. Obregon, Mexico 25-28 March 2014 Water for Agriculture in 2050: Are We Ready? Uma Lele
- 2. “Fierce national competition over water resources has prompted fears that water issues contain the seeds of violent conflict. If the entire world’s peoples work together, a secure and sustainable water future can be ours.” (Kofi Annan, World Water Day 2002). “We need to move beyond the ‘complacency of denial mode.” (Mihir Shah, member of India’s Planning Commission, February 24, 2011; Keynote Speech, Global Water Partnership (GWP) and International Water Management Institute (IWMI) Workshop, Colombo, Sri Lanka). “Growing water related conflicts will be Asia’s defining crisis of the 21stcentury.” (Chellaney 2011).
- 3. 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 Total Renewable Water Resources per capita (actual) by Country (m3/inhab/yr) 1958-1962 2008-2012 Source: Lele and Associates, based on the AQUASTAT database, FAO. Low and Declining Per Capita Water Availability is Leading to Intense Competition Latest Example: California Ag: 1% of GDP 66% of Water Use
- 4. Globally 42% of Production from 16 percent of Area For developing countries– ◦ 21 percent of arable land, and 49 percent of all crop production from Irrigation ◦ 60 percent of cereal production from Irrigation ◦ R and D on Rain fed Agriculture only now beginning to receive attention in policy and investments--- barring LAC Source: Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. (2012). World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision. ESA Working Paper No. 12-03. Agricultural Development Economics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
- 5. Large and Medium Scale Surface Irrigation— Largely Public Sector-- about 100m hectares. Public + Farmer Managed—Irrigation Management Transfers, also known as PIM Farmer Managed—Tube wells, Sprinklers, Drip Traditional Farmer Managed Peri-Urban Public Private Partnerships –Contract Farming
- 6. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Groundwater Irrigated Area as Percentage of Area Equipped for Irrigation by Region (%) (2009) Source: Lele and Associates, based on AQUASTAT database . http://www.fao.org/nr/aquastat and FAO. 2012. FAOSTAT database . http://faostat.fao.org/
- 7. Northern Africa 1.8% Sub-Saharan Africa 0.3% Northern America 15% Central America and Caribbean 0.5% Southern America 1.7% Middle East 10% Central Asia 1% South Asia 45% East Asia 17% Western and Central Europe 6% Eastern Europe 0.8% Oceania 1% Area Irrigated by Groundwater (2009) Total= 117.2 (million ha) Source: Lele and Associates, based on AQUASTAT database . http://www.fao.org/nr/aquastat and FAO. 2012. FAOSTAT database . http://faostat.fao.org/
- 8. Drilling of Tube wells Sprinklers Drip Little or No Reliable Data on these changes Little and Fragmented Regulation and absence of comprehensive water policies. On the Contrary Subsidies for Promotion of Water Use combined with subsidies for power
- 9. Holistic? Australia Israel China Morocco State of Gujarat in India Very Limited Research on improving Water Management or Water conservation—IWMI’s Water for Food study? Few Independent studies of Impacts Almost no Studies that measure outcomes ◦ zero tillage, Direct Seeding, AW & D, PIM, Watershed development
- 10. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total Area Equipped for Irrigation by Region (1000 ha) (1961-2011) South Asia East Asia Europe and Central Asia Northern America Latin America and Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa Source: : Lele and Associates, based on FAOSTAT data Oceania North Africa South-Eastern Asia Western Asia
- 11. Distribution of Electric and Diesel Pump-sets in South Asia Source: Tushaar Shah (2009) Climate change and groundwater: India’s opportunities for mitigation and adaptation. +3 million of Drip Irrigation
- 12. 0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000 12000000 14000000 USA Uzbekistan India China Russia Ukraine Brazil Kazakhstan France Italy SouthAfrica Spain SaudiArabia Canada Azerbaijan Germany Australia Turkey Iran Egypt Romania Japan Mexico SlovakRep Korea Morocco Hungary Moldova GreatBritain Syria Israel Finland Malawi Portugal Bulgaria ChineseTaipei Chile CzechRep Slovenia Philippines Poland Macedonia Lithuania Malaysia Estonia Sprinkler Irrigated Area (Hectares) Sprinkler Irrigated Area by Top Countries (Data provided by The International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) for 45 Countries) Source: Lele and Associates, based on data available at http://www.icid.org/icid_data.html, The International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID)
- 13. 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 2000000 India China Spain USA Italy Korea SouthAfrica Brazil Iran Mexico SaudiArabia Australia Israel Turkey Egypt France Syria Japan Ukraine Russia Portugal Chile Kazakhstan Moldova Finland ChineseTaipei Morocco Poland Hungary Philippines Canada GreatBritain Malawi Germany Malaysia CzechRep Romania Bulgaria SlovakRep Uzbekistan Macedonia Slovenia Estonia Azerbaijan Micro Irrigated Area (Hectares) Micro Irrigated Area by Top Countries (Data provided by The International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) for 45 Countries) Source: Lele and Associates, based on data available at http://www.icid.org/icid_data.html, The International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID). Note: Data is not available for Lithuania.
- 14. 50 100 150 200 250 300 BaseYear1961=100 Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Growing in Some Regions more than others (1961-2010) Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia Lag in TFP Growth Source: : Lele and Associates, based on Fuglie’s Excel Sheet , available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural- productivity.aspx#.Uyt24qiSxvY Sub-Saharan Africa (Except South Africa) Latin America and Caribbean North America North East Asia South-East Asia South Asia Middle East and North Africa Oceania
- 15. 50 100 150 200 250 300BaseYear1961=100 Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Index Growth by Key Countries (1961-2010) Source: : Lele and Associates, based on Fuglie’s Excel Sheet , available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural- productivity.aspx#.Uyt24qiSxvY India China Brazil Mexico Indonesia Pakistan United States
- 16. Real Agricultural Prices Have Fallen Since 1900, Even as World Population Growth Accelerated Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using Fuglie et al 2012. Depicted in the chart is the Grilli-Yang agricultural price index adjusted for inflation by the U.S. Gross Domestic Product implicit price index. The Grilli-Yang price index is a composite of 18 crop and livestock prices, each weighted by its share of global agricultural trade (Pfaffenzeller et al 2007). World population estimates are from the United Nations.
- 17. Total Agricultural Products Exports by Region (Export Value in Million$) (Real=Nominal/MUV) (MUV Index 2000=100) (1970-2010) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Lele and Associates, based on FAOSTAT data and World Bank MUV Index Africa North America Latin America and Caribbean East Asia South Asia South-East Asia Rest of Asia Europe Oceania
- 20. 2050 Challenge 9 Billion+ in 2050: Cereal Production (Net of Biofuels) Increase by 60 percent over 2005 level to meet demand growth of 1.1 percent annually down from 2.2 percent in the past 4 decades Cereals production must increase by 940 million tonnes to reach 3 billion tonnes; Meat production must increase by 196 million tonnes to reach 455 million tonnes; and Oil crops must increase by 133 million tonnes to reach 282 million tonnes. On Demand Side On Supply Side Population Growth --All in LDCs Slowing Yield Growth Income Growth --Mostly in LDCs Climate Change Urbanization --Up from 50 percent to 70 percent Limits to Land, Water, Soils, Biodiversity, Forests, Fisheries Shift in Food Consumption Patterns --Rice, Wheat, Maize, Soybeans for Feed Last Frontiers? ---LAC, SSA, Eastern Europe Biofuels --Maize, Oilseeds Increased Market Related Risks and Uncertainty Processed Foods DE capitalization of Agriculture --Investment in R and D Lele, Agarwal and Goswami, AAEA 2011
- 21. Projected Impact of Climate Change
- 22. None include water, nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion Range in Price Behavior from small decline to increase Impacts of Biofuels will depend on policies Biggest Decline in Production to come from Climate change Martin von Lampe et al, Agricultural Economics 45 (2014) 3–20
- 23. Arable Irrigated Land Will Increase Very little by 2050: Equipped and in Use (million ha) (1960-2050) Source: Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012.
- 24. Latin America and SSA Major Source of Growth Actual and Projected Growths of Area Equipped for Irrigation by Region (1961-2050) 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 Source: Lele and Associates, based on Schmidhuber’s Excel Sheet 2013 Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America and Caribbean South Asia East and South-East Asia Near East and North Africa
- 25. Increasing Efficiency and Productivity of Water of Utmost Urgency
- 26. 2 Billion People Living in river and lake basins in two or more countries, 148 countries with territory within one or more trans boundary river basins, 30 countries lay entirely within them. Over 90 percent of the population lives in countries with shared basins . Asia, Europe, and Africa have well over 60 basins each ( nearly 2 billion people worldwide depend on groundwater Approximately 300 trans boundary aquifer systems (The Facts and Figures - UN Water 2013, http://www.unwater.org/water-cooperation- 2013/water-cooperation/facts-and-figures/en/)
- 28. Basins at Risk
- 29. Over Billion people Limited information on their water resources Huge Potential Findings of two recent World Bank studies: ◦ Lack of data and analysis results in over- expectations-Nepal/India ◦ Lack of progress on agreements-- Egypt/Ethiopia because of preconceived notions in Egypt?
- 30. Public Irrigation Systems underperforming Poor O and M Delays in implementation Absence of incentives to improve performance Lessons of Experience Modernize irrigation systems do not just rehabilitate Adopted Improved Management Practices Increase Water Charges After Improving Delivery of Water Services, (Quantity, quality, reliability, predictability, adequacy)
- 31. China Investments in R &I $ 32.5 Billion annually over 10 years India $13 b annually State ownership of Natural Resources Unitary Government Engineers in Charge Legal reforms Mostly expansion of surface irrigation Canal Lining Water Users’ Associations Rapid Implementation 28 States Responsible for Water Management and Agriculture A Mix of public, private ownership of water Decentralized System of planning and implementation Delays in implementation Poor performance of Surface Irrigation
- 32. Public Expenditure in Irrigation and Net Irrigated Area in India 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Netirrigatedarea(millionha) ExpenditureinIrrigation (BillionUSD2005constantproces) Expenditure-major and medium irrigation Expenditure-minor irrigation Expenditure-Command area development Trend-net irrigated area-canals Trend-net irrigated area-tanks Trend-Net irrigated area-groundwater Source: Unpublished paper by Mehta and Shah.
- 33. (C+E+N) Agric. Extension & research 7% (F+I+J) Animal Production 2% (G+L+M)Crops 8% (O)Forestry 5% (H)Irrigation & Drainage 32% (P+Q)General Ag. 11% (R)Public Admin- Agriculture 1% (K+S+T)Agric. Marketing and Trade + Agro-industry 7% Agriculture adj. 15% Agricultural cred 12% Irrigation Highest Share of IBRD-IDA Commitments Among Agricultural Sub-sectors (MUV Index 2000=100) (1960-2011) (%) Total=116.6 US$ Billions Source: Lele and Associates, based on World Bank Projects and Operations Data. http://www.worldbank.org/projects/.
- 34. 82 World Bank Funded Irrigation and Drainage Projects in India (1953-2013) Source: Lele and Associates, based on data source http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/india/projects/all?s ector_exact=Irrigation+and drainage&qterm=&lang_exact=English
- 35. Source: Lele and Associates, based on World Bank data, Available at http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/content/ieg/en/home/ratings.html Note: Marginally satisfactory and above includes Highly satisfactory, Moderately satisfactory, Satisfactory and Marginally satisfactory 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 India China Brazil Mexico Indonesia Pakistan Bangladesh SHARE OF MARGINALLY SATISFACTORY AND ABOVE (%) (Overall Ratings on Agriculture and Rural Development) SHARE OF MARGINALLY SATISFACTORY AND ABOVE (%) (Ratings on Irrigation & Drainage Only) Share of the 176 Irrigation and Drainage and 517 Agriculture and Rural Development Projects among the World Bank’s Seven Largest Borrowers, Rated Marginally Satisfactory and Better
- 36. Total Area Harvested for Cereals (million ha) (1961-2012) (Brazil, China, India and Indonesia) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Brazil China India Indonesia Total Cereals Yield (hg/ha) (1961-2012) (Brazil, China, India and Indonesia) 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Brazil China India Indonesia Source: Lele and Associates, based on FAOSTAT data
- 37. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 NumberofIrrigation&Drainageprojects Commitments(US$Billion)(Real=Nominal/MUV) MUV Index 2000=100 Number of Irrigation & Drainage Projects Funded by IBRD-IDA and Total Commitments to Irrigation & Drainage (US$ Billion) (Real=Nominal/MUV) (1960-2011) Number of projects IBRD-IDA Commitments to Irrigation & Drainage Source: Lele and Associates, based on World Bank data
- 38. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 NumberofWaterSectorProjectswithI&DComponent WaterSectorLoansandGrants(US$Billion) (Real=Nominal/MUV) Number of Water Sector Projects with I&D Component Funded by ADB and Total Water Sector Loans and Grants with I&D Sector (US$ Billion) (Real=Nominal/MUV) (1969-2011) Number of projects Total Water Sector Loans and Grants with I & D Component (Billion USD) Waterpart (Billion USD) Source: : Lele and Associates, based on Asian Development Bank Data
- 39. A movement that has spread throughout the world Evaluation of IMWI’s Program Mixed record of success: China, Mexico, vs. India Piecemeal information on Impacts of Transfer Agreements on quantity or quality of water service delivery E.g. Improved Operation and Maintenance ? Improved productivity
- 40. Source: ASTI as reported in Beintema and Stads (2011)
- 41. Dearth of Independent Impact Evaluations Zero tillage—reasonable impact at scale, but less about water saving than soil management Direct Seeding—Unclear benefits W and D in Water Management System of Rice Intensification?
- 42. Globally and Country by Country Improve and Disseminate Data on Irrigation and Water Use at all levels Substantially Increase R and D on water and water use efficiency and water productivity Improve incentives for water conservation Focus on Measuring Improved Outcomes Recognize Jevon’s Effects of Change in irrigation technologies at the macro level
- 43. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 Without Resource Conservation Global Gap in Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Indices Will increase over time (1961-2050) Source: : Lele and Associates, based on Fuglie’s Excel Sheet , available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural- productivity.aspx#.Uyt24qiSxvY Sub-Saharan Africa (Except South Africa) Latin America and Caribbean North America North-East Asia South-East Asia South Asia Oceania Middle East and North Africa [TFP Index (2010=100) with projections]