Seizing Growth in Emerging Markets

Fast Forward to Growth
Seizing opportunities in high-growth markets

Contents
Foreword 3
Executive summary 5
A wake-up call 9
Locating demand: The search for growth 13
New players, new rules: 26
The new shape of competition
Rethinking capabilities: The roadmap to success 33
Sizing the future: Assessing where and when to act 35
Shaping the future: Seeding tomorrow’s growth 43
Seizing the future: Operating at speed and scale 54

Conclusion: Windows to the future 65
Methodology: Income and consumption forecasting 67
References 69

1

Foreword
The search for growth opportunities in previous decades. Fundamental shifts in
emerging economies is no longer a matter income and demography are reshaping
of choice; it has become a necessity. the landscape of global consumption.
With short-term growth difficult to find Predicting where and when the
in developed markets, emerging markets related market opportunities will arise
must be considered as more than an is difficult enough; understanding
optional, longer-term bet. how to grasp them is even harder.

But making bets on the future, Second, I see a new constellation of
whether short-term or long-term, is an competition being formed out of the
especially difficult challenge amid the market turbulence of recent years. This
persistent uncertainty, complexity and is due partly to the new economic and
volatility in the global marketplace. In political relationships that are being
Mark Spelman my conversations with clients around forged, particularly between emerging
the world, I am struck by how today’s economies. But I also see transformation
Global Head of Strategy
business executives often find themselves in how businesses operate. The downturn
Accenture struggling to prioritize their investments has spurred improvements in the
across the diverse set of growth markets efficiency of global operations. New
in emerging economies. The questions technologies and reconfigured operating
I hear in boardrooms vary widely: Why models are allowing companies to create
aren’t we making profits in China yet? value more effectively and to build more
Is it too late to enter Brazil? How can direct and intimate connections with
we move faster to establish a foothold their customers. And these new business
in Africa? The questions highlight a key models, practices and capabilities draw
factor in strategic growth planning: the from a more diverse pool of global
importance of getting your timing right. players, characterized by important
differences in strategic priorities,
Planning an effective global growth governance and culture.
strategy across time horizons demands
significant investments of time, It is in the context of this dramatically
effort and resources to assess market altered landscape of opportunity
potential accurately and to build the and competition that this report, the
requisite capabilities for success. work of the Accenture Institute for
Putting off such investments, waiting High Performance, calls for an urgent
to see how markets evolve, is tempting reassessment of the strategies and
in today’s economic environment, capabilities that will be central to
and it may be the right decision. achieving high performance in tomorrow’s
global marketplace. Business leaders
But this presents executives with cannot allow change and uncertainty
a critical paradox: ongoing global to paralyze their decision making. We
economic change may lead businesses hope you find the report insightful and
to shy away from action in the very stimulating and its recommendations
markets that hold the key to faster both useful and actionable.
growth. The longer firms hesitate,
the greater the risk of missing out on
opportunities, and the more challenging
the competitive environment they will
face when they eventually take action.

I see two underlying factors at play. Mark Spelman
First, regardless of when and how
growth returns to developed markets,
the future map of global demand
will look very different from that of

3

Executive summary

In the current global economic is yet to come. For example, many low-cost capabilities and deep local
environment, executives fear that companies are pinning their hopes on knowledge, as well as an increased
prospects for growth in many markets China, the world’s most populous nation role of relationships and government
are patchy and vulnerable. With this fear and one of its largest and fastest- support. In this environment, with its
comes a renewed search for pockets growing economies. Currently, 27 other wide range of players and broad variety
of growth in the global economy. We economies—including Poland, Colombia of capabilities, many companies will
surveyed nearly 600 business leaders and Turkey—have a greater number face a challenge in pressing home
worldwide and found that 80 percent of households with an annual income their own competitive advantage.
are focused primarily on high-growth above US$30,000. But over the next
markets in emerging economies to chart decade, China will rapidly accelerate up
a more compelling path for the future. the ranks, leaving only three economies The opportunity paradox
And with good reason. Household with a greater number of households Our research uncovers a paradox: on
incomes in emerging economies will earning US$30,000 and above: the one hand, there is strong affirmation
jump by more than US$8.5 trillion United States, Japan and Germany. that firms see continued growth coming
between 2010 and 2020—nearly 60 This pace of change is not restricted from emerging economies. On the other
percent of the global increase over this to China: Mexican households in this hand, they feel that the windows of
period, in real terms.1 As these incomes income band are expected to boost opportunity to secure their company’s
grow, so will consumption and demand. their income by an additional US$340 share of these markets may be shrinking.
billion by 2020, an increase higher The point is underlined by our survey
But many executives are not confident than that expected in Germany. And in finding that 73 percent of respondents
that their organizations are up to the a richer income segment, households believe they need to accelerate their
task. Forty percent do not believe that with an annual income of more than efforts, or may already be too late,
their companies possess the strategic US$50,000, Turkey will see a total to build satisfactory market share
and operational capabilities to fully increase of US$380 billion, the highest in these high-growth markets.
grasp the opportunities in emerging of any emerging economy. As these
economies. The same proportion worry examples demonstrate, the varying Our research supports this imperative
that they do not fully understand the degree and speed of change across to accelerate action in seeking
competitive dynamics they will face. these markets make the size and timing opportunities in high-growth markets.
These doubts are not misplaced— of opportunities difficult to grasp. In an uncertain economic environment,
and may be exacerbated by the there is a strong temptation for
emergence of a rapidly intensifying companies to watch and wait, or even
competitive landscape, populated by Mapping the to retrench or withdraw from some
new players with new capabilities.
High-growth emerging markets are competitive terrain markets until the global economic
environment becomes clearer. In fact,
a fast-moving target. Companies Companies seeking their fortunes many organizations have significant
must build powerful new capabilities in high-growth markets face a reserves of cash that could be used
to address this new reality. challenging competitive landscape. As for expansion. But they continue
competitors jostle for position, firms to hesitate. A strategy of “wait and
Tracking the targeting these markets will confront
domestic players with strong local
see” may be effective, as long as it
is based on a realistic assessment
income surge knowledge and intimate customer
relationships; established multinationals
of the options, opportunities and
risks involved. More likely, however,
The pace of income growth in emerging with global scale that have improved hesitation in today’s global competitive
economies can be bewildering. Many their efficiency in response to the environment may be the most
companies have been impatiently downturn; and a further potent breed, dangerous choice of all. High-growth
awaiting the promise of profitability growing multinationals from emerging markets offer many opportunities, but
in emerging economies. But as our economies. The competitive landscape the explosion in demand is matched
detailed analysis of household incomes is characterized by a combination by ever-intensifying competition.
shows, the real growth in consumption of scale advantages, strong brands,

1 We analyzed household income data across 64 countries (see Methodology on page 67 for details) which together accounted for more than 90 percent
of global GDP in 2010. The income of the emerging-market households in our analysis will jump by more than US$8.5 trillion between 2010 and 2020.

5

Faced with the risk of squandering these newly-empowered female populations. • Use information and communications
opportunities, what can companies In this way, successful globalizers technology (ICT) such as mobile
do to accelerate their efforts and develop a more complete and realistic phones and social media to collect
avoid missing the boat? What are the understanding of the markets in which reliable and relevant data, improve
specific capabilities they need to build they intend to operate. demand forecasting, and overcome
in order to compete effectively and data scarcity. Coca-Cola has 22 million
claim their share of future growth? Second, in a rapidly-changing consumers following it through social
environment, these companies media, and the ensuing dialogue has
understand better than their competitors given Coca-Cola valuable ideas for
Opening windows the importance of planning over time new beverages and other products.
of opportunity horizons, allowing them to sequence and
prioritize their investments. Our research, • Leverage existing proprietary data
conducted in partnership with Oxford for further growth opportunities:
In our research we found that
Economics, illustrates the importance the Mexican retailer Grupo Elektra
successful companies in high-growth
of identifying where different markets built one of the country’s largest
markets think differently about the
will sit in terms of their consumption networks of banking branches based
capabilities critical for growth and
of specific products and services. How on data from a credit service it
prioritize their investments in different
close are they to reaching a point where launched for retail customers.
ways. Specifically, these “successful
globalizers”—companies with a track demand rapidly takes off? How close are • Choose local partners—whether
record of successful performance in they to market maturity? What are the through joint ventures, alliances or
emerging economies, that are confident opportunities of different markets over other arrangements—to gain a deep
and committed about their future different time horizons? understanding of local market dynamics,
prospects in these markets—excel in needs and preferences.
three areas. They are better able to size This deep understanding of their target
markets allows successful globalizers • Enhance competitor analysis
the future—they possess the ability
to become masters of strategic techniques to anticipate emerging
to accurately size, time and prioritize
positioning: to be not only where competitors across multiple time
demand opportunities around the
opportunities are today, but where horizons, from different geographies
world. They are better able to shape
they will be tomorrow. Through their and adjacent industries.
the future—they possess the insights
and capabilities to cultivate and protect superior ability to discern the size,
future demand opportunities around location and timing of opportunities, 2. Shaping the future:
these companies make more informed
the world. And they are better able
decisions and trade-offs around where Cultivating new markets
to seize the future—they display the
operational agility and flexibility to and when to invest, and remain several While some companies may feel they
adapt and reorient the company to moves ahead of the competition. are too late to secure their position
grasp opportunities across growth in high-growth markets, our research
To become masters of strategic shows that successful globalizers do
markets. Companies can take specific
positioning, companies can: not simply accept that windows of
actions today to improve their
capabilities in each of these areas: • Conduct cross-country forecasts opportunity are shrinking. Instead, they
of product and service consumption open new windows of opportunity by
discovering new demand and seeding
1. Sizing the future: Where across time horizons, beyond national
future opportunities.
and regional borders, and use these to
and when to invest evaluate trade-offs and guide decisions
about when, where and how to enter In an environment where attaining
Our research suggests that successful market share is challenging, successful
companies in high-growth markets adopt high-growth markets. Some markets
may offer immediate opportunities, companies have identified the
new approaches to assessing potential opportunity to grow the size of the
market opportunity. They take a more while others may be poised for more
significant growth in the longer term. overall opportunity, not just their share.
dynamic view that incorporates foresight They understand how to extend the
and flexibility into strategic planning. • Experiment with different customer frontiers of opportunity, often through
segmentation variables to uncover targeted partnerships and collaboration
They are more adept at examining global new geographic and demographic with local stakeholders.
opportunities through multiple lenses. groups. Discovering segments that cut
This allows them to aggregate seemingly across country borders may unearth Our research demonstrates the impact,
disparate markets and uncover business business cases beyond those that in real consumption opportunities,
cases that would otherwise have focus exclusively on country-level that can be achieved when businesses
remained untapped. Witness companies segmentation. Procter & Gamble invest in generating future demand. For
that have successfully targeted diaspora has designed razors, shampoos and example, our analysis examines how
communities scattered across the world, cleansing products specifically designed demand can be measurably increased
or specific high-potential customer for consumers in water-scarce areas. through improvements in infrastructure,
segments, such as those in water- education and health care.
scarce areas, rural communities or

6

To achieve a better understanding of companies to grasp the opportunities of International Development Program,
how they can push open new windows today, but will play a fundamental role giving future leaders experience in
of opportunity, companies can: in shaping the markets of tomorrow. foreign markets within the company’s
business units across the globe.
• Identify and map key stakeholders, For example, our analysis shows how
local and global, and build trusted the power of disruptive innovation No business decisions are simple in
relationships. can transform industry dynamics, today’s environment of prolonged global
improving the accessibility of consumer economic uncertainty. But a game of
• Assess the strength of relationships
products and creating markets. In the “wait and see” purely due to a lack of
with government agencies, industry
automotive sector, for example, process understanding or preparedness poses
regulators and local communities. These
redesign and low-cost materials have the risk of missing the boat. This report
relationships can help obtain a license
dramatically broadened the accessibility uncovers the key dynamics at play and
to operate, ease the policy environment,
of passenger cars to new customers. details specific actions that companies
and improve access to scarce resources.
New pockets of demand have opened can take to build the capabilities for
Executives may be surprised at the
up for those companies with the agility success in the high-growth markets of
extent of common interests held by
and efficiency to design low-price the future.
these stakeholders.
business models. Successful globalizers
• Innovate to fulfill unmet needs,
and involve local consumers in
are pushing the boundaries of what
is possible: they understand that
The research
innovation and design. Vodafone and business performance and the bottom Accenture’s Institute for High
Safaricom’s M-PESA money transfer line will only become more important Performance has conducted thorough
platform was designed to address a in geographic growth plans. They research to investigate the keys for
particular need in Kenyan society, to understand that operating at speed and success in today’s competitive high-
send money to family at home. The scale will play an ever greater role in growth markets. The main elements
service has grown quickly, achieving determining the winners and losers of of research include:
14 million registered users within the next phase of global competition.
four years, and has simultaneously • Household income analysis, in
brought an entirely new business collaboration with Oxford Economics.
To achieve operational agility and seize We created five standard bands of
model to markets across the world. new opportunities, companies can: annual household income and, for
• Evaluate local and global leadership’s each of 64 countries, estimated the
understanding of social and economic • Explore partnership and acquisition
number of households falling into each
factors that influence demand, and options to boost reach, capability and
band in 2010, 2015 and in 2020. All
promote the social and economic speed; and continually reassess and
forecasts are measured in real terms,
development of local communities. evolve ownership and governance
and at market exchange rates.
Companies successful in emerging structures as circumstances change.
markets engage national and local The flexibility of Starbucks in managing • Industry consumption curves, in
governments to help create the a range of business models and collaboration with Oxford Economics.
conditions needed for their businesses to partnerships has been instrumental to This research forecasts the evolution
prosper. GSK, a leading pharmaceutical its success in China, which the company of consumption for a select group of
and healthcare products company, now regards as its “second home industries across the world. It also
reduced the price of its patented market.” includes scenario-based sensitivity
medicines in the world’s poorest analysis to assess the impact of changes
• Develop systems to rapidly
countries, providing social benefits in the business and policy environment.
redeploy people, capital and ideas
and opening up new markets. around the global organization. In • A survey of 588 business leaders,
expanding its global footprint, Tata across 85 countries and 22 industries,
3. Seizing the future: The Communications designed a wholly conducted by the Economist Intelligence
operational agility to grasp new international operating model Unit. Business leaders were asked about
to incorporate local leadership their perceptions of the competitive
new opportunities expertise into its global operations. landscape, their company’s plans for
Successful companies infuse their growth and the capabilities important
• Encourage experimentation—
organizations with the strategic, for success in these markets.
incubate, fund and protect new ideas.
operational and cultural agility to The success of Indian pharmaceutical • Conversations with clients and
grasp new opportunities. Identifying companies demonstrates the importance experts across industries and extensive
opportunities is one thing, but rapidly of innovation, and the benefits of secondary research, including
mobilizing the organization to attain scaling new ideas across the global company case studies and analysis of
them is another. In order to achieve this, organization. greenfield and M&A investment data.
they prioritize and invest in distinctive
• Assess the leadership team and how
capabilities that boost operational
its skills and experience align with
agility and flexibility. These capabilities
growth plans. Nestlé is relaunching its
are not just instrumental in helping

7

A wake-up call

We analyzed household income data As emerging-market households spend
A world of opportunity across 64 countries that together this newfound income, fresh pockets
Faced with protracted economic accounted for more than 90 percent of demand will emerge. Our research
uncertainty, many companies are of global GDP in 2010. The income of examined the evolution of income
renewing their interest in emerging the emerging-market households in patterns globally, and how rising
economies as a springboard for their our analysis will jump by more than household incomes might influence
next phase of growth. Our survey US$8.5 trillion between 2010 and 2020. consumption. For example, a combination
of 588 business leaders reveals that That represents nearly 60 percent of of rising household income and a large
80 percent are looking primarily at the total global increase in household population will propel China to be one of
emerging economies for their next stage incomes over this period (see Figure the world’s most significant passenger
of growth. And they acknowledge that 1). In particular, China and India are car markets: our estimates show that
this is where future opportunities lie, projected to experience significant average annual car sales in China are
with 81 percent planning to increase increases in total household income, expected to exceed 15 million by 2020,
their investment in emerging economies with additional income of US$3.2 ahead of the United States. Already, in
over the coming three years. trillion and US$1.4 trillion, respectively. 2011, China has overtaken the US to
become Roll-Royce’s largest market.2

Figure 1: Household income growth 2010-2020 (US$ billion, 2010 constant prices)

60,000
Developed markets
• Share of global growth = 43%
• Compound annual growth rate 56,700
(CAGR) = 2.0%
55,000 Emerging markets
• Share of global growth = 57%
• CAGR = 5.4%

50,000

45,000

41,600

40,000

35,000

Global China India Russia Brazil Turkey Mexico Indonesia Other US Japan UK Germany Other Global
income emerging developed income
2010 2020

Emerging markets Developed markets

Source: Accenture, Oxford Economics
Note: The analysis covers 64 countries, which accounted for more than 90 percent of global GDP in 2010.

9

“Emerging markets,” however, is a may be the most dangerous choice The growth prospects are clear. But
nebulous term that obscures the of all. The economic downturn has it is also clear that many companies
diversity and complexity across had a profound impact, dramatically will feel locked out of the opportunity
those markets. South Korea, India reshaping the global competitive to become serious players in the
and Vietnam are often cited as landscape. High-growth markets market, even before it has taken off.
high-potential “emerging markets” present many opportunities, but
to watch. Yet average household these opportunities are being rapidly This pattern is repeating itself in
income in these markets diverges snapped up by a new breed of players different industries and locations around
significantly; approximately US$35,400, from emerging economies, as well as the world. In some cases, the risk of
US$5,800 and US$3,300, respectively, multinationals that have entrenched being locked out of markets threatens
in 2010. The value of comparing themselves in these markets during deep and long-term consequences.
a “typical” consumer across these previous phases of globalization. The The CEO of a large Chinese railway
countries is questionable, even when longer they wait, the more challenging equipment manufacturer explained
factoring in cultural differences. competitive environment they will that the financial crisis weakened
face when eventually taking action. the ability of European and North
Headline numbers can also mislead. American banks to finance large railway
China, for example, is the world’s most contracts demanded in Asia’s emerging
populous country and home to one of The risk of missing economies. Chinese enterprises and
the world’s largest and fastest-growing
economies. Yet in 2010 it had fewer the boat banks partnered to fill the void. The CEO
is confident that his company’s products
households with annual incomes above Companies turning their attention to rival the quality of multinational
US$30,000 than many other smaller high-growth markets must act quickly competitors and will anchor rapid
“emerging” economies, including and definitively to carve out their sales expansion in Asia: exports for
Colombia, South Africa and Argentina. position. Firms entering and expanding the first half of 2009 increased by
While attention is focused on the BRIC in high-growth markets can expect 60 percent over the same period in
economies, we project that by 2020 to face a range of competitors with the previous year.3 The prospect of
Turkey will be home to an additional powerful strengths: from low-cost being locked out of such long-term
4.7 million households in this income players to global giants, from locally contracts around the world should be a
bracket, on a par with expected growth networked incumbents to masters sobering thought for many companies.
levels in Brazil. Mexico will also undergo of global scale and efficiency. In
rapid growth in its consumer-market this environment, hesitation risks The intensity of competition is not
potential: there will be an additional squandering opportunities. The longer all that has changed. The diversity of
3.3 million households in this segment the hesitation, the greater the odds competitors, and of their competitive
over the decade to 2020. With so that more nimble and prepared players advantages, brings new challenges.
much variation and rapid change, will position themselves for these In this report, we bring to light the
the size and timing of opportunities lucrative growth opportunities. fundamental shifts in the global
can be challenging to grasp. business landscape that the downturn
The mobile telecoms market in Latin has wrought. We make clear the
America, for example, is often predicted new challenges companies face in
The temptation to to be one of the world’s fastest-growing determining the optimal location
hesitate telecoms markets over the next five
years (See “América Móvil and Telefónica:
and timing of opportunities, and
the risk of delaying action in the
Businesses are understandably hesitant Seizing opportunities ahead of the pack,” face of aggressive competition.
to prioritize their investments in these page 12). The market for value-added
diverse, unfamiliar, but potentially
lucrative markets. Each brings unique
services such as mobile data is not yet
established in much of Latin America.
The opportunity
opportunities, challenges and operating
environments. The temptation to
Penetration rates remain very low in
many countries, and rapid increases in
paradox
hesitate is aggravated by continued demand may be far off. These facts have Our global business survey uncovered
global economic uncertainty, not stopped Mexico’s América Móvil and a paradox: on one hand, companies
sluggishness in developed markets Spain’s Telefónica from expanding rapidly see continued growth coming from
and increasingly tempered near-term across these smaller markets, acquiring emerging economies. On the other,
growth prospects in emerging markets. local providers and gaining access to they feel that their windows of
the infrastructure essential for growth opportunity may be shrinking. Our
The instinctive response of many when demand does take off. Companies survey findings underscored the point:
companies will be to watch and wait, or looking to enter these nascent markets 73 percent of respondents believe
even to retrench or withdraw from some will face not only domestic players, they need to accelerate their efforts
geographic locations. Yet our research but also two Fortune Global 500 to build satisfactory market share
demonstrates that in today’s global multinationals with established products, in these high-growth markets—or
competitive environment, hesitation infrastructure, relationships and brands. that it may already be too late.

10

With almost three-quarters of business
Wanted: Action and leaders believing that they need to
confidence accelerate their efforts in high-growth
markets, it is critical to understand the
Even while companies feel they dynamics that constrain their progress.
are missing out on opportunities,
uncertainty may lead them to hesitate Many companies may not appreciate
about investing in high-growth the degree of change in the business
markets. In fact, many companies have landscape since the downturn.
healthy cash reserves that could be
used for expansion. Cash holdings for On the demand side, companies
American nonfinancial companies in have not adjusted their methods to
June 2011 exceeded US$1.9 trillion, locate and measure demand and fully
the highest in half a century.4 evaluate potential opportunities:
their tools are often inappropriate,
The volatile economic environment or even outdated and irrelevant.
drives uncertainty and hesitation,
but our research uncovers deeper On the supply side, companies
concerns. We found that many underestimate the diversity of
business leaders are not confident players and capabilities they will
about their own company’s ability encounter in the competitive
to succeed in high-growth markets. landscape. Next, we explore these
demand and supply dynamics.
• 40 percent do not believe that
their company possesses the
strategic and operational capabilities 73% of companies feel
to fully grasp the opportunities
in emerging economies. they need to accelerate
• The same proportion acknowledge
that they do not fully understand the
efforts or may already
competitive dynamics they will face. be too late to build
• Nearly one-third do not even believe
that their company has a clear strategy
satisfactory market
for high-growth markets. share in high-growth
markets.

11

América Móvil and Telefónica:
Seizing opportunities ahead
of the pack

Latin America is projected to be the increasing its customer base. In recent
fastest-growing telecoms market over years, Telefónica has built on long-
the next five years. Demand is growing standing relationships in the region,
at unprecedented rates: penetration strengthening its presence through
reached a high of 89 percent this sizable acquisitions of established
year.5 As penetration rates rise, so do players such as Vivo.
opportunities for lucrative “value-
added” services. Almost one-third of all As other telecoms players look to
new phones in Latin America by 2014 high-growth markets in Latin America,
are expected to be smartphones. The they are faced not only with smaller
number of mobile data plan subscribers domestic incumbents but also with
is expected to more than double this two Fortune Global 500 multinationals
year, a sizable opportunity in a continent with global reach and scale, combined
of nearly 600 million people.6 with local presence and understanding
across the region. Breaking through this
The market is dominated by two global incumbency poses new and challenging
telecoms giants, each looking for growth questions to potential entrants.
to offset a decline in its traditional
revenue base: América Móvil, which is América Móvil and Telefónica are
looking for growth in mobile, broadband already jostling for position in new
and pay TV to offset declining revenue services, including mobile data,
in fixed-line services since the market broadband and pay TV. Telefónica
was liberalized and opened up to recently rebranded its operations across
competition, and Telefónica, which is Latin America, bringing together fixed
looking to broaden its footprint beyond line, mobile, broadband and TV under
Europe, an intensely saturated and the Movistar brand.
competitive market.7
When Latin America’s markets
These two companies are the dominant begin their inevitable acceleration—
players in most key Latin American broadband penetration rates are
markets. In Mexico, Telcel—América still hovering at around 15 percent
Móvil’s mobile arm—holds 72 percent in most of these countries—América
of the market, but Telefónica is closing Móvil and Telefónica will be at the
fast. In the last quarter of 2010, forefront of new opportunities.9
the two companies accounted for They are identifying and snapping up
90 percent of the one million new opportunities almost before they appear.
connections: Telcel took 30 percent,
but Telefónica took 61 percent. And in
Brazil, América Móvil’s Claro brand is
a key player in the market, along with
Vivo, acquired by Telefónica in 2007.8

The strategies América Móvil and
Telefónica use to build their presence
are revealing. América Móvil has for
many years been buying up smaller
operators around Latin America, taking
control of fixed-line infrastructure and

12

Locating demand: The
search for growth
Between 2011 and 2016, approximately profitability in China. But over the next for 56 percent of India’s economy,
60 percent of global economic growth decade, China will rapidly move up the compared with 34 percent in China),11
is forecast to come from emerging ranks, leaving only three economies China’s economy is largely built on
economies,10 despite an expected with a greater number of households investment and export growth, and
near-term slowdown in key high- earning US$30,000 and above: the Russia is heavily dependent on its
growth markets such as China and United States, Japan and Germany. In natural resources: oil, fuel and gas
India. The triad economies of the 2010, the number of Chinese households accounted for 69 percent of exports in
United States, Europe and Japan in this income bracket was almost 2010.12 These fundamental differences
continue to experience persistently twice that in Thailand—but by 2020, illustrate the dangers of relying upon
high unemployment and public debt there will be more than thirteen times such country groupings for detailed
levels. Many developed economies as many. Our analysis highlights the analysis and comparisons. Looking
have seen their economic growth dynamics shaping global demand outside the BRICs, Vietnam, Peru
forecasts downgraded in recent opportunities through 2020 (see “In and Angola are all forecast to grow
months and companies struggle to focus: Household buying power,” page more quickly than Russia. It becomes
locate the next sources of growth 18). Specifically, we illustrate how clear that even the accuracy of the
in these markets. In many emerging US$15 trillion of additional household terms “emerging markets” and “high-
economies, in contrast, unemployment income will be dispersed around the growth markets” is debatable.
is falling and governments hold world across distinct income segments.
significant reserves. Many companies The stories that emerge reveal where Economic groupings and macroeconomic
in these markets may not even have “high growth” may be found. terminology help describe important
felt the impact of the downturn. global trends. But when a company
plans its own global strategy, it needs
Levels of consumption and demand Attachment to a far more granular analysis—one
for goods and services in emerging
economies will increase as incomes outdated labels that looks beneath headline figures
and provides a more accurate picture
grow. But with enormous differences Income levels and the speed of change of the true size and pace of growth
in the size and growth rates of are difficult to keep up with and in demand around the world.
demand, along with a variety translate into investment decisions.
of customer preferences, it is
difficult to accurately assess and
Commentators are quick to embrace
labels such as BRIC (Brazil, Russia,
The dangers of
forecast growth opportunities. India and China), MINT (Mexico,
Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) and
generalization
Labeling groups of countries can also
A fast-moving target CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam,
Egypt, Turkey and South Africa). But lead companies to overlook important
We have conducted an extensive the dramatic speed at which the differences among unfamiliar markets.
analysis, in collaboration with Oxford demand landscape is changing brings For decades, the African continent has
Economics, of household incomes and into question the value of these terms. borne the brunt of such generalizations.
their evolution over the coming decade. Over the next three years, in real In 2010, Nigeria had a per capita GDP
According to our analysis, China lags terms, India’s economy will grow at of US$1,300, lower than the sub-
behind 27 other economies, including a rate twice as fast as that of Russia. Saharan Africa average (see Figure
Poland, Turkey and Colombia, in the China will grow twice as fast as Brazil. 2).13 Nigeria’s total household income
number of households with an annual And there are significant structural was approximately US$200 billion—
income greater than US$30,000. This differences: while India’s growth has lower than South Africa’s, despite a
comes as no surprise to companies been fueled primarily by domestic population three times as large.14
eagerly and impatiently awaiting demand (private consumption accounts

13

Figure 2: GDP per capita, 2010 (US$ at 2010 prices and Figure 3: Change in total income for households with
market exchange rates) annual income of US$5,000 and above, 2010-2020
(US$ billion, constant 2010 prices)

8,000 140

7,000 120

6,000
100
5,000
80
4,000
60
3,000
Sub-Saharan 40
2,000 Africa average
20
1,000

0 0
South Egypt Ghana Nigeria Kenya Nigeria Thailand South Malaysia Egypt Ghana Kenya
Africa Africa

Source: Oxford Economics Source: Oxford Economics

However, Nigeria’s consumer-market “middle class” is a loosely defined the greatest opportunities lie. Some
potential will soon outstrip that of term and differs across markets. In might be surprised at what they find.
other African economies it lags behind some cases it is merely the middle of Significant opportunities exist in cities
today. By 2020, 7.8 million additional the income distribution. In others, it that many multinationals haven’t even
households are expected to have an refers to a specific level of income. heard of. Zhengzhou is a prime example.
income level of US$5,000 and above, Either way, a middle-class household The capital of Henan province in China,
with 12 percent of these earning more in India is unlikely to afford the deluxe Zhengzhou by 2020 will have a bigger
than US$30,000. This translates into refrigerator, high-end TV, smartphone economy than Sweden, Hong Kong or
US$130 billion of additional household and sport utility vehicle of a middle- Israel.16 And Surat, in the Indian state of
income and an increase far greater than class American family. These large Gujarat, is forecast to be home to nearly
other African economies (see Figure 3). discrepancies and ambiguities in the 8 million people by 2020, more than the
The income growth is also greater than definition of “middle class” matter whole of Paraguay or Norway.17
that in burgeoning Asian economies, for companies trying to find the most
such as Malaysia and Thailand. The attractive markets for their products One example of a company that has
key driver of Nigeria’s rapid economic and services. followed a city expansion approach
growth, and incomes, is the country’s is Xiang Piaopiao Food (XPP), which
expected fast population growth. entered the Chinese beverage market
Redrawing borders in 2005 with a milk tea product. The
market at the time was concentrated
The misleading Companies must take into account
the most appropriate geographic units in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities, but XPP
“middle class” in strategic planning. For example, it
may make sense to plan in terms of
avoided the high entry costs associated
with these markets by focusing on 600
Hyperbole and imprecise terminology regions and cities rather than countries smaller cities, using traditional channels
hamper the sizing of high-growth and continents. In China, for example, of local distributors. The company has
market opportunities. Take the much there are significant variations across achieved compound annual growth of
vaunted “emerging middle class.” provinces in income, demographics, more than 100 percent, with total sales
This consumer segment is variously religion, language and geography. from smaller cities and towns typically
estimated to include anywhere between By delving more deeply into their accounting for 75 to 80 percent of total
500 million and 2 billion people. Some assessment of China and other large sales in each province.18
forecasts claim that it could double emerging markets, companies can
over the next two decades.15 However, create a more accurate picture of where

14

Figure 4. South Africa income inequality scenarios: Number of households, 2020 (million)

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0
US$0-US$5,000 US$5,000-US$15,000 US$15,000-US$30,000 US$30,000-US$50,000 US$50,000+

Baseline income inequality Reduced income inequality

Source: Accenture, Oxford Economics

it might mean that companies need
Understand the to accelerate entry plans as demand
“unknown-knowns” for their product picks up sooner
than they had expected. This example
A large number of external factors illustrates how changes in external
can cause consumer spending to factors may have an unexpected
diverge from expectations. One such but significant impact on market
factor is change in the distribution of opportunities and strategic planning.
income, something that is receiving
increased attention from opinion
formers and policymakers around
Spotting opportunity—
the world. China, for example, has
made reducing income inequality a
creating demand
priority in its 12th Five-Year Plan. A clear awareness of income trends is
a crucial first step toward developing
In South Africa, greater income an accurate map of current and future
equality is also an explicit policy goal. demand. Understanding the point at
We modelled what would happen if which consumption of a product will
South Africa’s Gini coefficient fell from pick up, accelerate and mature should
58 to 51, still a high co-efficient by be a central part of planning market
global standards (see Figure 4). The entry and expansion. Accurately
impact of this reduction in income assessing market maturity across
inequality would be to expand by 7 different locations can offer critical
million the number of households with insights into how those markets can
annual incomes of between US$5,000 best be aligned for strategic planning
and US$50,000. Understanding purposes. To illustrate, we have
shifts in the distribution of income estimated the global relationship
allows companies to measure market between household income levels
potential more accurately. This can and market penetration for select
mean the difference between making products and services (see “In focus:
a decision to enter a market or not. Or Consumption curves,” page 23).

15

In focus: Household
buying power

While high-growth markets offer attractive
consumer opportunities, diverse and rapidly
evolving income patterns often pose significant
strategic planning challenges. In collaboration
with Oxford Economics, we forecast the evolution
of household incomes across 64 economies.19
Our forecasts are measured in real terms at
constant 2010 prices to avoid the potential
distorting effect of inflation over time. We
compare income levels across countries
using market exchange rates, rather than
purchasing power parities (PPP). We believe
this avoids the upward bias of PPP measures
and corresponds more closely to the actual
size of revenue opportunity for businesses.
Even with our conservative methodology,
the stories that emerge are striking.
Between 2010 and 2020, the number of
households in the 64 countries we studied is
forecast to jump by 124 million—87 percent
will be in emerging economies—translating into
US$15 trillion of additional household income
by 2020. Emerging economies will account
for 57 percent of this increase in income.

18

The emerging consumers

As a household’s annual income surpasses US$5,000, spending
on personal goods and demand for high-impact items such
as televisions, mobile telephones and two-wheel vehicles
typically increases. In 2010, 40 percent of emerging-market
households earned less than US$5,000 a year, this share is
expected to fall below 20 percent in 2020. This low-income
segment would shed 225 million households, nearly a half
of them in China. During the same period, this segment
in Indonesia would shrink by 11 million households—20
percent of its current population. Meanwhile, the share
of India’s population earning more than US$5,000 a year
is expected to increase from 47 percent to 81 percent.

Figure 5: Additional households with annual income of US$5,000
and above, 2010-2020

More than 25 million 5 to 25 million 1 to 5 million 0 to 1 million

Less than 0 Not studied

NB: At market exchange rates and 2010 constant prices.

19

The great leap

The share of emerging-market households in our analysis
with an income exceeding US$15,000 is expected to increase
from 36 percent in 2010 to 54 percent in 2020. This jump
adds 240 million households to this income segment.
China alone would contribute half of this change, with
125 million households. Another hotspot is Russia, where
12 million additional households are expected to be in this
income segment by 2020—this shift represents 20 percent
of Russia’s current number of households. As households
pass this income threshold, we can expect them to begin
spending on cars, computers, and basic financial products.





20

Multiple consumer hubs

In 2010, developed-market households dominated the income
segment of US$30,000 and above. By 2020, it is expected
that there will be an additional 80 million emerging-market
households in this segment, boosting consumption for
healthcare services, basic leisure goods and home purchases.
After China, the shift in Brazil is expected to be one of the
largest in the world, with more than 5 million additional
households earning at least US$30,000. Turkey is also
expected to have an additional 4.7 million households
in this income segment by 2020, a greater change than
any developed economy apart from the United States.
This represents a 73 percent increase over Turkey’s
current number of households in this segment.





21

The new big spenders

The US$50,000-and-above income band represents
households with significant disposable income. Beyond this
income level, spending on such items as life insurance and
pension products, leisure and tourism services, and luxury
consumer goods would be expected to pick up. China would
contribute 5 million additional households to this segment, the
second-largest increase after the United States. South Korea,
a more advanced emerging economy, is expected to double
the proportion of its population in this income segment to
42 percent—one of the highest among emerging economies.
Kazakhstan also is expected to more than double the share of
its population in this income segment, from 7 to 15 percent. By
2020, Kazakhstan will have 770,000 households earning above
US$50,000; more than the combined number in Armenia,
Bangladesh, Bulgaria, Egypt, Ghana, Indonesia, Iran, Kenya,
Morocco, Pakistan, the Philippines, Ukraine and Vietnam.





22

In focus:
Consumption curves
Working with Oxford Economics, we Figure 9: Non-life insurance consumption curve, 2008
built global economic models to show
the relationship between a country’s 5,000
average annual household income 4,500 Netherlands
and expected sales or penetration in
4,000
a number of consumer industries. We
Premiums per capita (US$)

portray these relationships as global 3,500
Japan
“consumption curves” in Figures 9, 3,000
10, 11 and 25, where we explore the High-income economies
2,500
insurance, car and broadband markets.
2,000 US
Factors specific to each country 1,500
are also at play, as is shown by the Low-income economies
1,000
position of individual countries in these Russia
charts, sometimes at some distance 500
from the global curve. Understanding Turkey
0
these factors allows country-specific
consumption curves to be modelled: 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
we provide examples in Figures 24 and
Average household income (2008 US$)
26. Tomorrow’s successful globalizers
will display mastery of their global and Source: Oxford Economics, Swiss Re, Accenture
local consumption curves: this level
of analysis can provide the basis for Despite the attention given to fast- premia per capita) would be at US$680.
informed choices about market selection growing emerging economies, for In fact, it was around US$4,500. The
and timing, for appropriate geographic many of them the insurance market is difference is due to institutional factors.
aggregation or disaggregation of still at an early stage of development: The 2006 Health Insurance Act created
markets, and for strategies to grow their market penetration has yet to increase a universal health care system, in which
customers’ propensity to consume. significantly. This does not imply an all individuals were mandated to carry
absence of growth opportunities. On the basic health insurance in the private
Know your curve: contrary, being positioned in a market as
it is about to take off can give companies
sector, while the government subsidized
low-income households.20 The country’s
Non-life insurance first-mover advantages, such as a strong
customer base and brand. The timing,
historic maritime links have created a
strong tradition of insurance coverage,
The relationship between household however, is critical because insurance has and the Netherlands is one of the world’s
income and market penetration is very a long growth phase. Entering too early largest non-life insurance markets.
strong in non-life insurance. The steep can be as damaging as entering too late.
consumption curve in Figure 9 reveals
that insurance is a “luxury” good for Institutional factors could stimulate Driving up the curve:
low-income households. It becomes
attractive only at higher income levels,
demand ahead of expectations. In the
Netherlands, for example, the market Passenger cars
where households have more valuable penetration rate is substantially above A snapshot of the current passenger
possessions and can afford to protect what one would expect from the country’s car consumption curve (see Figure
them. Lower income countries therefore income levels. For an average household 10) illustrates how assessing market
appear around the base of the curve, income of US$51,000 (the country’s maturity in different countries can
while wealthier economies are clustered average income) in 2009, the curve reveal powerful country groupings
higher up the curve. suggests that consumption (measured by for strategic planning purposes. The

23

car markets in Mexico, Slovakia and and their major trading partners may prioritization of investments across
Turkey appear to be at similar growth promise lucrative opportunities for target markets. For example, in 2008, the
phases—rapidly growing markets the automotive sector, as well as for Thai market had not yet taken off. But
with car purchase penetration ancillary products and services. between 2008 and 2020, the car stock
increasing faster than income growth. is expected to nearly double to 103 cars
A “maturing” cluster of markets is In maturing car markets, the next wave per 1,000 people, and annual sales will
also apparent further up the curve: of growth may be in electric or hybrid average 560,000 cars (see Figure 11). By
in these countries, a change in vehicles. Although these vehicles still the same token, Turkey is further up the
income will induce a proportionally make up only a small proportion of consumption curve and expects a much
smaller change in demand. total car sales, by aggregating similar larger increase in consumption earlier
markets, companies may uncover in the decade. Penetration is expected
Companies can use these patterns and sufficient scale to build a profitable to increase by an additional 82 cars per
groupings to identify potential targets, cross-country business case. 1,000 people—equivalent to annual car
similarities and synergies. For example, sales of 1.12 million. These examples
many countries that are approaching the The greatest value in consumption curves illustrate the value of more granular
“rapid growth” phase are also significant is their ability to forecast over time. By analysis: some companies may need
automotive manufacturing hubs. Mexico, comparing market dynamics across time to prioritize today’s investment dollars
Slovakia and Turkey are fast becoming horizons and geographies, companies can between building a longer-term position
hotspots for auto parts production paint more accurate pictures of where in Thailand and betting on Turkey’s more
and assembly21 and are attracting and when opportunities will arise. These immediate window of opportunity.
considerable investment.22 These markets comparisons anchor a more effective

Figure 10: Passenger cars consumption curve, 2008

700 Maturing phase Illustrative consumption figures

600 Cars per
1,000 people
500 Rapid-growth phase China 27
Cars per 1,000 people

US Thailand 54
400
Turkey 92
300 Mexico 181
Slovakia 272
200 Russia Croatia 346
China United States 451
100

Emerging phase
0

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

Source: Oxford Economics, World Bank WDI, Accenture

Figure 11: Passenger cars: Expected change in car penetration, 2008-2020
600
2008
Illustrative consumption growth:
2020
change 2008-2020
500
Cars per Average
1,000 people sales, annual
Cars per 1,000 people

400 Croatia
Slovakia 99 160,000
Slovakia China 94 15,030,000
300
Turkey 82 1,120,000
Mexico 54 2,200,000
200
Mexico Thailand 45 560,000
Croatia 28 110,000
100 Thailand Turkey

0

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000


Source: Oxford Economics, World Bank WDI, Accenture

24

New players, new rules:
The new shape of
competition
This chapter looks at the important Many economies have actively courted
dynamics reshaping the global foreign investment, and governments
competitive landscape: the key players compete against one another to
and new competitive pressures that attract firms from around the world.
make it more difficult for companies The impact on local competitive
to access growth opportunities. dynamics has been dramatic.
We introduce the players in this
new phase of global competition Multiple layers of
and then look at how they are
changing the rules of the game. incumbency
First, companies must compete against
New players strong local knowledge and the
relationships that domestic players
Internationalization has never been a enjoy. Second, many can expect to
simple journey. The ability to become face Western multinationals that
relevant and respond to local needs have expended significant effort to
in new markets has always been a become locally entrenched. These
fundamental challenge. A major obstacle multinational players possess the scale
is the strength of incumbents, with and efficiency of global enterprises,
their deep local-level relationships, some possess strong brands, and
acute knowledge of local needs and most have become leaner and more
preferences, and enviable customer competitive in response to economic
loyalty. Business school case studies and troubles in their home countries. Finally,
media coverage are littered with praise companies entering new markets will
for companies that have managed to also face multinationals from emerging
effectively tailor their offerings to local economies that can leverage scale
markets. By the same token, companies advantages with low-cost capabilities
unable to recognize and adapt to and, in some cases, government
local circumstances are criticized. support and funding. Most companies
are rightly daunted by the prospect
But companies looking to enter high- of having to take share from these
growth markets today face a more incumbents. It is no wonder that some
complex incumbency challenge than firms feel they are already too late to
ever before. High-growth markets have enter these markets (For an example of
spurred growing levels of investment how to respond to these pressures, see
and corporate activity over recent years. “Cencosud: Retail relations,” page 30).

26

Figure 12: Fortune Global 500

100%
47 60 70 78 91 95 117
90%
453 440
80% 430 422
409 405
70% 383

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%
0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Developed Emerging

Source: Fortune Global 500, Accenture analysis

Emerging giants meet the demand there and from other (see page 31) details this important shift
South American countries. Embraer, the and how rapidly intra-emerging market
Already 117 companies from emerging Brazilian commercial plane manufacturer, (“E2E”) trade has grown in just the
economies are in the Fortune Global reports record profits through sales past ten years to transform the global
500, a six-fold increase since 2000. of mid-size jets suitable for regional competitive landscape. As emerging
This trend appears to be accelerating. travel between emerging economies. economies increasingly dominate global
Twenty-two emerging-market SABMiller, a leading global brewer trade and investment flows, it is only a
multinationals replaced their developed with roots in South Africa, recently matter of time before the world sees a
market peers on the list in 2011 (see built a brewery in South Sudan. The new global map of talent, innovation
Figure 12). The emerging-market company’s deep experience in emerging and industry standards.
companies are also quickly moving up economies—it operates in 17 African
the ranks. In 2011, 70 percent of the
Fortune Global 500 fastest-growing
countries—gave it the confidence to Seasoned global players
enter this unserved market, despite South
companies (by revenue) were from Sudan’s severe infrastructure barriers. Notwithstanding the importance of
emerging markets. competitors from emerging economies,
These examples of success in high- it would be wrong to assume that
Companies based in emerging economies growth markets by companies from they will dominate the next era
often have an advantage in entering emerging economies exemplify a broader of competition. Some of the best
and expanding in high-growth markets. transformation in the global business examples of success in high-growth
For example, they may be more familiar landscape: the sharp increase in business markets have been multinationals
with serving low-income customer activity between emerging economies based in developed markets. With a
groups or operating amid infrastructure since the beginning of the downturn. well-established presence in emerging
deficiencies. The size of the prize is China has displaced the United States economies, these companies are well
evident, and the success stories are only as Brazil’s largest trading partner. China positioned to combine their superior
increasing. China’s fast-growing Chery, has also become India’s biggest trading global scale and efficiency with their
an automotive company, launched its partner, and the two countries have local knowledge and responsiveness.
mini car, QQ, in nearly 80 countries, agreed to a US$100 billion bilateral Many solidified their position during
most of them emerging economies. trade target by 2015. But the story the downturn as their gains in emerging
Chery is particularly successful in isn’t just about China. India’s exports to economies made up for the pain felt at
Brazil. In the first half of 2011, Chery’s Brazil increased more than tenfold from home. For example, Figure 13 illustrates
exports to Brazil reached 18,000 units, 2000 to 2010 and exceed those of Latin how, through its presence in emerging
a quarter of its exports.23 The company American economies such as Mexico. economies, Unilever sustained growth
has recently built a plant in Brazil to “The journey to multidirectional trade” during the downturn despite shrinking

27

Figure 13: Unilever revenue growth breakdown (€ billion) Figure 14: Composition of Unilever’s revenue
(percentage share)

50
40% 42% 44% 47% 49% 53%
45
8.1 44.3
40 -2.2
38.4
35

30
60% 58%
25 56% 53%
51%
20 47%

15

10

5
0

Total revenue, 2005-2010 2005-2010 Total revenue, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2005 change in change in 2010
revenue from revenue from
developed emerging Developed markets Emerging markets
markets markets

Source: Unilever company reports Source: Unilever company reports

revenue from developed markets. In acquisition of Jaguar and Land Rover Capital, credit and corporate
2010, for the first time, the majority of created a company with a range of
Unilever’s revenue was from emerging high- and low-value offerings well governance: The freedom to
economies (see Figure 14). The company positioned to compete at the opposite invest for the long term
plans to increase this share to 75 ends of the same market. With these
percent by 2020.24 offerings, Tata Motors can also cater Constraints on capital investment
to markets around the world at and difficulties securing credit have
Companies such as Tesco in South Korea different stages of development. hampered growth efforts in the wake
or Coca-Cola in Brazil have shown that of the downturn. Firms backed by state
being a foreign or “Western” company Such ventures can leverage their capital and sovereign wealth funds,
is certainly no disadvantage. These complementary strengths to rapidly meanwhile, have benefited in this
companies possess strong competitive build market share in home markets and environment as they have been able
advantages. Their established brand form a springboard for global success. to access investment capital largely
presence positions them well to attract Some companies have used partnerships unconstrained by the pressures on
talent and customers. They can also to develop entirely new offerings: global capital markets.
draw upon their regional and global Vodafone and Safaricom’s M-PESA
networks and mechanisms to better money-transfer service acquired 14 Consider the example of sovereign
identify and rapidly act on local million registered customers within wealth funds in the Middle East, which
opportunities. What matters for high four years (see “M-PESA: Creating new have approximately US$1.7 trillion in
performance is not a company’s country markets through innovation,” page 44). assets under management.25 In 2010, as
of origin; it is the company’s strategic funds across the Middle East sought to
and operational capabilities for success.
New rules diversify and invest in new high-growth
markets, 49 percent of their investments
Combining forces As the key players in global markets were directed toward the Asia Pacific
change, so do the pressures that shape region—a significant leap compared
Companies also have a greater appetite the rules of competition. The location of with the 7 percent invested in the
for cross-border partnerships across a company’s headquarters matters less region from 2000 to 2008.26
emerging- and developed-market than its ability to grasp opportunities
economies, built through joint ventures, while others watch and wait. Many of the fast movers into high-
acquisitions and other models. These growth markets have been those
complementary capabilities, assets The following three trends are that have had the freedom to take a
and strengths can create a formidable increasingly shaping the competitive longer-term investment perspective.
competitive force. Tata Motors’ landscape. Ownership and governance structures

28

Seizing Growth in Emerging Markets

Seizing Growth in Emerging Markets

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