This document discusses water and energy governance in the Mekong River Basin. It presents scenarios for dam development through 2030 that would expand irrigation by 1.6 million hectares but negatively impact 5 environmental hotspots and affect 1.4 million people. It also examines how the government, market, and people control water flows. The market is driving electricity demand growth and dam construction for hydropower. While floods annually cost $60-70 million, their economic benefits of $8-10 billion far outweigh the costs, largely accruing to the people of the basin. Achieving a fair sharing of these resources across stakeholders is challenging without proper regional coordination and planning.

1. Who Controls the Flow?
Sharing Flow Fairly at the Confluence of
Regional Water and Energy Governance
Carl Middleton
MA in International Development Studies Program,
Chulalongkorn University

2. Basin Development Plan and
its Planning Scenarios
Foreseeable Future Scenario
(2030): Includes irrigation
expansion (1.6 million hectares),
water supply demands, and an
additional 30 tributary dams
(beyond definite future scenario
(DFS) until 2015)
* Additional Net Present Value of
US$ 8 billion compared to the DFS
* Additional 650,000 jobs
(hydropower, irrigation, and
fisheries)
* 10% reduction in capture fisheries
* Impact on 5 environmental
hotspots
* Negatively affect 1.4 million
people

4. Who Controls the Flow?: The
Government
Regional Powertrade Masterplan (ADB) MRC Biomonitoring stations

5. Who Controls the Flow?:
The Market
“Ch Karnchang, Thailand's second-
biggest building contractor, has a 57
percent share in the project, ….
Shares in Ch Karnchang rose 5.7
percent on Monday to 9.3 baht,
their highest since January 2011,
and climbed another 2.7 percent on
Tuesday at one point before ending
down 0.5 percent.” (Reuters,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/07/us-laos-dam- 7.11.12)
idUSBRE8A610K20121107

6. Who Controls the Flow?:
The Market
Mekong Electricity Consumption by Country
140.00
120.00
Billion Kilowatt-hours
100.00
80.00 Thailand’s current fuel mix
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
Year
Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Myanmar
Source: EIA. 2007. World’s Net Electricity Consumption. Table 62.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea/elec.html

7. Who Controls the Flow?:
The People

8. Sharing Fairly At the Confluence of
Regional Water and Energy Governance
“Floods and droughts …
both impose large
economic and social costs
on the people of the basin
but the economic benefits
of floods far out-weigh their
costs. The average annual
cost of flooding in the
Lower Mekong Basin [LMB]
is US$60–70 million a year,
while the average annual
value of flood benefits is
US$8–10 billion a year – i.e.
some 100 times greater”
EGAT prepared Thai civil society
MRC State of the Basin
Power prepared Power
Development Plan
Report, 2010
Development Plan

9. Thank you for listening
© Suthep Kritsanavarin
Carl.Chulalongkorn@gmail.com