3rd Mekong Forum on Water, Food & Energy 2013. Presentation from Session 12: Alternative electricity sources and planning for the Mekong.

1. Potential for increasing the role of
renewables in Mekong power supply
(MK14)
Technology Review
Mekong Forum 2013
Tim Suljada
(tim.suljada@icem.com.au)

2. Outline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Suitable renewable energy technologies
Technical potential in the LMB
Costs of renewables
Overcoming technical barriers to deployment
Solar PV status and growth prospects
Wind status and growth prospects
Conclusion

3. Renewables potential and deployment
Source: Grubb curve in Electric Power Research
Institute (2009)

4. Assessment of technology suitability to
the Mekong

5. Renewable energy potential in LMB
• Highest potential is
solar, mostly in Thailand
and Vietnam
– 76GW, currently 0.374 GW
• Wind and biomass
significant
– Wind: 12GW mostly in Viet
Nam (currently 0.134GW)
– Biomass: 5.5GW across
region (currently 1.1GW)
 Current LMB power plans
include 104GW in new
capacity by 2025
Source: ICEM (2013)

6. Utility-scale
Small-scale / off-grid
Renewables costs
Average generation costs
LMB: 0.103 – 0.137
(ICEM, 2013 – based on Current PDPs to 2025)
Source: IRENA (2013)

7. How significant is cost as a barrier?
• Biomass and small hydro is competitive with
current generation sources in the region
– Scale? Collectively ~15GW potential
• Wind is nearing competitiveness
– 4-16 c/kWh globally, around 12c/kWh non-OECD Asia
– Potential is ~12GW
• Solar more costly
– 9-40 c/kWh globally, around 30c/kWh non-OECD Asia
– Potential is ~76GW

8. Ways to overcome the cost barrier?
• Public investment in
feed-in-tariffs
– Thailand has stimulated
renewables deployment
with attractive tariff rates
for all technologies
– Vietnam has a modest
feed in tariff for wind
• Investment is more
financially viable for
consumer and may
bring down capital costs
over time by creating a
larger market
Effect of German FiT

9. Aside from cost?
• Challenge of intermittent and volatile solar and
wind resources
– Outputs depends on when the sun shines and the
wind blows  low capacity factors & hard to predict
– Baseload power generation sources like hydro and
coal cannot be ‘swapped’ for solar and wind
– Similarly, peaking plants such as gas (CCGT), which
can be turned on to respond to energy use patterns
• Biomass, small hydro and geothermal can meet
these needs, but make a small contribution

10. Managing intermittency of solar and
wind resources
Once intermittent generation reaches ≈ 20%:
1. Renewable energy output correlation with load
– Peak shaving effect of solar and daytime a/c driven peaks
2. Distributed small-scale generation sources
– Emerging literature on the balancing effect of aggregating
many dispersed generation sources
3. Load shedding
– Utility pays major energy users not to draw from the grid
4. Storage
– Batteries can smooth power output, but expensive
5. Backup generation capacity
– CCGT, hydro dispatch to compensate, but expensive

11. Solar PV
Bangchak Solar Farm 38MW
Ayutthaya, Thailand
$3,000 / kWp
27.37 c/kWh
 Best performance in direct
sunlight
– Thailand: 5-6.5 kWh/m2/day
– Viet Nam: 3-6.25 kWh/m2/day
 Scattered light on cloudy
days, reduced output
Rooftop (<5 kWp)
• Capital: $2,275 – 5,000 /kWp
• Generation: 16-55 c/kWh
Utility scale (<250 MWp)
• Capital: $1,300 – 2,760 /kWp
• Generation: 9-40 c/kWh

12. 42% (20112012)
Solar growth
60%
p.a.(200
72012)
Source: REN21 (2013)
Solar capacity growth in Thailand
…LMB growth in solar PV driven by
Thailand with 362MW installed
capacity in 2012
(A total of 12MW were installed in
other LMB countries in 2012)
Source: Tongsopit
& Greacen (2013)

13. Solar development potential in LMB
Solar farm – utility scale
Solar rooftop
By 2025, an
estimated:
464,300 rooftop
solar of 929MW.
By 2025, an estimated:
800 solar farms of total
capacity 16,000MW.
Source: ICEM (2013) SEA
of GMS Power Planning

14. Solar - levelised cost trends for
good resource (6.5 kWh/m2/day)
Generation costs projected to fall
Source: Hearps, Patrick, and Dylan McConnell. "Renewable Energy Technology
Cost Review." Melbourne Energy Institute (2011): 1-58

15. Solar module prices - historical
Module prices driving cost reductions
Source: IRENA (2013) Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012: An
Overview, IRENA: Abu Dhabi

16. Solar investment cost components
• Module costs
largely correspond
with international
market price
• Balance of system
costs are locally
specific and vary
considerably
between countries
Source: Melbourne Energy Institute (2011)
Renewable Energy Technology Cost Review

17. Balance of system costs for residential
systems: USA vs Germany
• Similar module costs, but different BOS
– US total costs were double Germany’s in 2011
• Will costs in the US come down with installed capacity
due to learning rates and economies of scale? Possible
accumulation
period also
experienced in
Germany
Source: :
Berkley Lab in
Melbourne
Energy Institute
(2011)
Based on 8,000 residential rooftop solar systems in 2012

18. Observations in Thailand: solar farms
Thailand solar farms
International experience
Utility scale in USA in 2010 with module
cost $1.90  total cost $3.50
Investment cost components
4
3.5
Investment cost [$/Wp]
3
Total
2.5
2
Module
1.5
1
0.5
Balance of system
55%
Source: Rocky
Mountain
Institute (2010)
73%
Date of planned investment
12/16/11
10/16/11
8/16/11
6/16/11
4/16/11
2/16/11
12/16/10
10/16/10
8/16/10
6/16/10
4/16/10
2/16/10
12/16/09
10/16/09
0
• Improved racking design
Consistent regulations for business
Public information on project development
Source: UNFCCC CDM data on 13
Thailand solar farms and spot prices for •
•
solar modules at time of investment

19. What we could see in Viet Nam and
others as markets develop
• In Viet Nam, current capital costs ≈ $5 / Wp
– More in Cambodia and Laos where there is no local
manufacturing and smaller markets
• As in Thailand, the module cost is likely to be
similar to international rates
– Above $1 / Wp depending on size of order
– Balance of system costs, including margin for
hardware suppliers likely to be upwards of $4 / Wp
• Likely to remain higher than Thailand until
market develops with installation volume

20. Similar trends for wind power
Generation costs projected to fall
Source: Hearps, Patrick, and Dylan McConnell. "Renewable Energy Technology
Cost Review." Melbourne Energy Institute (2011): 1-58

21. Wind investment cost components:
turbine and other costs
Source: Melbourne Energy Institute (2011)
Renewable Energy Technology Cost Review

22. Wind development potential in LMB
19% (20112012)
By 2025, an estimated:
292 wind farms with total
capacity 8,760MW.
25%
p.a.(200
72012)
Source: ICEM (2013) SEA
of GMS Power Planning
Source: REN21 (2013)

23. Conclusions
• Biomass and small hydro already financially
viable and meet load characteristics
– But, they are on a small scale
• Wind and solar potential is on a large enough
scale and will soon be financially viable
1. Financial incentives needed in the short-term
2. Intermittency and volatility must be considered once
renewables proportion reaches ≈ 20%
• Thailand offers a good example for the LMB
– Financial incentives have developed the market, which
appears to have brought down local costs

24. THANK YOU
Tim Suljada, ICEM
(tim.suljada@icem.com.au)