These slides were first presented at the Economic Development Partnership CEOs Forum (22 Feb 2012).

1. Think Piece for Discussion 22 February 2012

4. TOPVIEW: RISING ABOVE THE PRESENT

7. Geo-economic shifts

8. v

9. Relative shares of global economic output, 1500-2000

10. Economic Growth Trends for Major Economic Powers (2000-2100) The US and EU continue as major powers till the 2030s, after which China will typically lead for up to 50 years, while India comes up from behind India, China & Japan had the largest urban populations in the world till the early 19 th century China-EU China-US India-EU India-US India-China

11. In 2009, China & India accounted for less that 2% of Western Cape trade!

12. Socio-digital shift 51,000% increase since 1995

14. Global material extraction in billion tons, 1900-2005

16. Climate change impacts Source: Left: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001; Right: Smith et al 2009 PNAS

17. Economic implications of adaptation

18. EACH TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION PROPAGATES IN TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS State intervention DEPLOYMENT INSTALLATION Financial crisis “ Creative destruction ” Learning the new unlearning the old A great market experiment Led by financial capital Ending in a stock market crash INSTALLATION DEPLOYMENT “ Creative construction ” Led by production capital Applying the paradigm to innovate across all sectors and to spread the social benefits more widely Until maturity and exhaustion ??? 2O - 30 years 2O - 30 years Major technology bubble big-bang Next big-bang Time Degree of diffusion of the new technological potential The first half sets up the infrastructure and lets the markets pick the winners the second half reaps the full economic and social potential Turning Point Uncertainty, institutional recomposition and role shift

19. GREAT SURGE Technological Revolution CORE COUNTRY INSTALLATION DEPLOYMENT IRRUPTION FRENZY SYNERGY MATURITY B ig-bang crash I nstitutional recuperation T urning point S USTAINABLE SYSTEM? (Adapted from C. PEREZ 2002) The Industrial Revolution Britain 1771 1793-97 C anal mania (Britain) Great British leap 1 st Age of Steam & Railways B ritain (spreading to EU & US) 1829 1848-50 Railway mania (Britain) The Victorian boom (Britain) 2 nd Steel, Electricity & heavy engineering US & Germany overtake Britain 1875 1893-95 Transcontinental investments in railways, ships & ports Belle Epoque (Europe) “ Progessive era ” (USA) 3 rd Oil, automobile & mass production US (spreading to EU) 1908 1929-33 (EU) 1929-43 (US) Autos, electricity, radio, aviation and real estate (USA ) Post-war golden age (USA-Europe) 4 th Information & telecommunications US (Spreading to EU & Asia) 1971 2001-02 2008-09 Telecoms & internet mania & financial instruments (Global ) GREEN NEW DEAL??? 5 th

20. GREAT SURGE Technological Revolution CORE COUNTRY INSTALLATION DEPLOYMENT IRRUPTION FRENZY SYNERGY MATURITY The Industrial Revolution Britain 1771 1793-97 C anal mania (Britain) Great British leap 1 st Age of Steam & Railways B ritain (spreading to EU & US) 1829 1848-50 Railway mania (Britain) The Victorian boom (Britain) 2 nd Steel, Electricity & heavy engineering US & Germany overtake Britain 1875 1893-95 Transcontinental investments in railways, ships & ports Belle Epoque (Europe) “ Progessive era ” (USA) 3 rd Oil, automobile & mass production US (spreading to EU) 1908 1929-33 (EU) 1929-43 (US) Autos, electricity, radio, aviation and real estate (USA ) Post-war golden age (USA-Europe) 4 th Information & telecommunications US (Spreading to EU & Asia) 1971 2001-02 2008-09 Telecoms & internet mania & financial instruments (Global ) B USINESS AS USUAL + GREENWASH 5 th crash T urning point SUSTAINABILITY AGE 2005 2025 Renewables, decoupling, demateralisation, sustainable living (Global) S USTAINABLE LIVING & GLOBAL EQUITY 6 th A GRICULTURE S USTAINABLE SYSTEM

21. HOW READY IS THE WESTERN CAPE TO JOIN THE ECO-INDUSTRIAL AGE?

22. Can the Western Cape Engage & Address its Unique Development Challenges?

24. FLASHING DASHBOARD

26. Unemployment

27. Overview of the Western Cape labour market, 2011 “ Around half a million individuals in the Western Cape were unemployed in 2011Q1, up from just under 400 000 in 2008, representing growth of 9.1 per cent per annum over the three-year period. Provincial employment appears to have been stagnant over the period at around 1.8 million. ”

31. Endemic violence Symptomatic of a wide-ranging number of social pathologies that cluster around substance abuse, sexual violence, dysfunctional parenting, splintered households (absent fathers), etc…

32. Unliveable neighbourhoods “ High-income households live in low densities while low-income households live in high densities.” (CCT 2010)

33. Spatial dynamics of isolation and exclusion Spatial traps of educational, health, economic & social dysfunction, reinforced by mobility barriers. Encrusted by cultural norms.

34. Trapped in an unviable fiscal model

35. Trapped in an unviable fiscal model: maintaining standards in wealthy areas

37. CONCEPTUAL FRAMES

38. The development challenge… GDP: 7% for 5m jobs CO 2 : 42% deviation below BAU by 2025 HDI: 0.597  0.80 Resilient growth Inclusive growth

40. Network infrastructure life-spans

43. Spatial & land-use operating system ( equitable & inclusive ) Economic operating system (Inclusion & durability) Social-cultural operating system (liveable communities) Network infrastructure operating systems ( resilient settlements )

48. Rebuilding place & community: Economic Inclusion

49. Rebuilding place & community: Integrated community development via Community Works Programmes