1. God
and
Poli*cs
What
Public
Opinion
Tells
us
about
Religion
in
the
2012
ElecAon
March
2012
Public
Religion
Research Dr.
Robert
P.
Jones,
CEO
Daniel
Cox,
Director
of
Research
Institute

2. UNDERSTANDING
THE
RELIGIOUS
AND
POLITICAL
LANDSCAPE
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
2

3. Shi;s
among
Protestants
by
Race
1974
–
2010
Ethnic
Change
Among
Protestants
(1974-­‐2010)
White
Protestant
Black
Protestant
60
54
50
36
40
30
20
10
9
10
0
1975
1985
1991
1974
1976
1977
1978
1980
1983
1984
1986
1988
1989
1990
1993
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source:
General
Social
Survey
1974-­‐2008;
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
American
Values
Survey,
September
2010
(N=3,013)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
3

4. Shi;s
among
Catholics
by
Ethnicity
1991
-­‐
2009
Ethnic
Change
among
Catholics
1991-­‐2009
Hispanic
Catholic
White
Catholic
30
25
21
14
20
15
10
8
5
2
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1997
1999
2002
2003
2007
2009
Source:
Pew
Research
Center
Surveys
1991-­‐2009
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
4

5. 2008
Presiden*al
Vote
by
Religion
2008
Presiden*al
Vote
by
Religion
96
Obama
McCain
100
90
78
77
80
73
74
70
60
53
54
50
47
46
40
30
27
26
22
23
20
10
4
0
Black
Protestant
Other
Non-­‐ Unaffiliated
LaAno
Catholic
White
Catholic
White
Mainline
White
ChrisAan
Evangelical
Source:
NEP,
NaAonal
Exit
Poll,
2008

6. 2010
Midterm
Vote
by
Religion
2010
Midterm
Vote
by
Religion
Democrat
Republican
100
96
90
81
80
75
69
70
58
58
60
60
50
42
42
40
40
31
30
25
19
20
10
4
0
Black
Protestant
Other
Non-­‐ Unaffiliated
LaAno
Catholic
White
Mainline
White
Catholic
White
Evangelical
ChrisAan
Source:
NEP,
NaAonal
House
Exit
Poll,
2010
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
6

7. ROMNEY
AND
THE
MORMON
QUESTION
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
7

8. The
Evangelical
Drag
on
Romney
South
Carolina
Iowa
Republican
Primary
Republican
Primary
Exit
Poll
Entrance
Poll
All
Voters
White
Evangelical
Voters
All
Voters
White
Evangelical
Voters
50
35
33
44
45
40
30
40
25
25
35
25
28
21
30
19
20
25
22
21
14
13
14
20
17
15
15
13
13
10
10
5
5
0
0
Gingrich
Romney
Santorum
Paul
Santorum
Paul
Romney
Gingrich

9. Importance
of
President
having
Strong
Religious
Beliefs
(Voters)
How$Important$is$it$for$Presiden2al$Candidates$to$have$
Strong$Religious$Beliefs?$
100" Important" Not"Important"
90"
93%$
80"
83%$
70"
60" 67%$ 69%$ 67%$ 68%$
50"
40"
30" 33%$ 30%$ 32%$ 32%$
20"
10" 16%$
0"
7%$
All"Voters" White" Black"Protestant" Catholic" White"Mainline" Unaffiliated"
Evangelical"
Source:"Public"Religion"Research"InsNtute,"American"Values"Survey,"September"2011"(N=1,505)""
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
9

10. Evalua*ons
of
the
Mormon
Faith
and
the
Religious
Beliefs
of
Mormons
Mormon&faith&is&not&a&Chris.an&religion&
All#Voters# 36%$
White#Evangelical# 49%$
Republican# 39%$
Tea#Party# 31%$
Mormons&have&religious&beliefs&that&are&different&from&own&
All#Voters# 66%$
White#Evangelical# 68%$
Republican# 61%$
Tea#Party# 50%$
Source:#Public#Religion#Research#Ins=tute,#American#Values#Survey,#September#2011#(N=1,505)##
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
10

11. Discomfort
with
Mormon
Serving
as
President
Percentage
of
voters
who
would
be
somewhat
uncomfortable
or
very
uncomfortable
with
a
Mormon
serving
as
President
Source:
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
American
Values
Survey,
September
2011
(N=1,505)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
11

12. PRESIDENT
OBAMA
AND
RELIGION
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
12

13. Knowledge
of
Obama’s
Religion
What
is
President
Obama's
Religion?
18
38
4
Don't
know
ChrisAan
Muslim
Not
Religious
40
Source:
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
PRRI/RNS
Religion
News
Survey,
July
2011
(N=1,012)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
13

14. Views
of
President
Obama’s
Religious
Beliefs
Among
General
Popula*on
Among
Whites
Very
similar
9
12
Somewhat
similar
9
9
26
35
28
Somewhat
38
different
16
18
Very
different
Don't
know
Source:
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
Post-­‐elecAon
American
Values
Survey,
November
2010
(N=1,494)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
14

15. Impact
of
Views
of
President
Obama’s
Religious
Beliefs
on
Favorability
Favorability
of
Obama
Very
favorable
Mostly
favorable
Mostly
unfavorable
Very
unfavorable
Total
24
32
17
25
Very
similar
51
43
3
3
Somewhat
similar
39
47
7
6
Somewhat
different
17
39
23
21
Very
different
7
13
27
51
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Source:
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
Post-­‐elecAon
American
Values
Survey,
November
2010
(N=1,494)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
15

16. Religious
Differences
Scores
for
Obama
and
Romney
Percep&ons*of*Differences*between*Poli&cal*Leaders'*
Religious*Beliefs*and*Public's*Own*Religious*Beliefs**
Romney%(!0.43)%
Bush%(0.00)%
Obama%(!0.40)%
!0.50% !0.40% !0.30% !0.20% !0.10% 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50%
More%Different% More%Similar%
Religion(Index((Scale:(12(=(very(different,(+2(=(very(similar)(
Source:(Public(Religion(Research(InsBtute,(PRRI/RNS(Religion(News(Survey,(July(2011(

17. FAULT
LINES
TO
WATCH
IN
2012
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
17

18. Tensions
between
Occupy
Wall
Street
vs.
Tea
Party
Values
Shares
Your
Values:
Occupy
Wall
Street
vs.
Tea
Party
30%
23
Shares
values
with
the
Tea
Party
49
Shares
values
with
Both
6
Shares
values
with
Occupy
Wall
Street
Shares
values
with
Neither/DK
23
Source:
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
PRRI/RNS
Religion
News
Survey,
November
2011
(N=1,002)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
18

19. Uneasiness
about
the
American
Dream
The$American$Dream$-$"if$you$work$hard,$you'll$
get$ahead"$
6%$
S"ll$holds$true$
44%$
Once$held$true,$but$
not$anymore$
48%$ Never$held$true$
Source:$Public$Religion$Research$Ins"tute,$PRRI/RNS$Religion$News$Survey,$November$2011$
(N=1,002)$
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
19

20. Uneasiness
about
Diversity:
Race
and
Concerns
about
“Reverse
Discrimina*on”
Discrimina)on+Against+Whites+Now+as+Big+a+Problem+as+
Discrimina)on+Against+Blacks+and+other+Minori)es+
Agree# Disagree#
Most#Trust#Public#Television# 23# 75#
Blacks# 29# 68#
Hispanics# 30# 66#
Democrats# 36# 62#
Millennials#(18C29)# 44# 54#
Independents# 45# 52#
General#public# 46# 51#
Seniors#(65+)# 51# 46#
Whites# 51# 46#
Republicans# 60# 40#
Tea#Party# 63# 36#
Most#Trust#Fox#News# 68# 31#
0# 20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
Source:#Public#Religion#Research#InsTtute,#Pluralism,#ImmigraTon,#Civic#IntegraTon#
Survey,#August#2011#(N=2,450)#####
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
20

21. Divisions
over
Equal
Opportunity
by
Poli*cal
Affilia*on
Equal
Opportunity
by
Poli*cal
Affilia*on
One
of
the
big
problems
in
this
country
is
that
we
don’t
give
everyone
an
equal
chance
in
life
It
is
not
really
that
big
a
problem
if
some
people
have
more
of
a
chance
in
life
than
others
80
70
70%
60
50
54%
54%
53%
50%
40
40%
43%
30
38%
37%
20
25%
10
0
All
Americans
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Tea
Party
Source:
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
American
Values
Survey,
September
2011
(N=1,505)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
21

22. Support
for
More
Equal
Distribu*on
of
Wealth
Society
would
be
bejer
off
if
the
distribu*on
of
wealth
were
more
equal
Percent
Agreeing
Source:
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
American
Values
Survey,
September
2011
(N=1,505)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
22

23. American
Excep*onalism
by
Religious
Tradi*on
God
has
granted
America
a
special
role
in
human
history
Percent
Agreeing
All
Americans
58
Unaffiliated
32
Non-­‐ChrisAans
43
White
mainline
54
Catholics
54
White
evangelicals
84
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Source:
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
Post-­‐elecAon
American
Values
Survey,
November
2010
(N=1,494)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
23

24. PERCEPTIONS
OF
AFFORDABLE
HEALTH
CARE
ACT
(AKA
OBAMACARE)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
24

25. Effect
of
the
Health
Care
Reform
Law
on
Access
to
Health
Insurance
30%
Effect
of
the
Health
Care
Reform
Law
Access
to
Health
Insurance
More
people
insured
No
difference
Fewer
people
insured
70
65
60
50
50
39
38
39
40
37
36
36
34
35
35
33
32
31
28
29
28
30
25
26
26
26
24
21
20
20
18
15
11
10
0
All
Americans
Black
Non-­‐ChrisAan
Unaffiliated
Catholic
White
White
Other
White
Protestant
Catholic
Mainline
ChrisAan
Evangelical
Source:
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
American
Values
Survey,
September
2011
(N=1,505)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
25

26. Effect
of
the
Health
Care
Reform
Law
on
Affordability
of
Health
Care
30%
Effect
of
the
Health
Care
Reform
Law
Affordability
of
Health
Care
More
affordable
No
difference
Less
affordable
60
54
52
51
50
43
39
38
40
37
37
35
35
33
30
31
30
31
30
30
28
25
24
22
21
21
20
19
18
20
17
10
10
0
All
Americans
Black
Unaffiliated
Non-­‐ChrisAan
Catholic
Other
White
White
White
Protestant
ChrisAan
Catholic
Mainline
Evangelical
Source:
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
American
Values
Survey,
September
2011
(N=1,505)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
26

27. TAXATION
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
27

28. Is
it
Fair
to
Ask
Wealthier
Americans
to
Pay
a
Greater
Percentage
in
Taxes
30%
In
Order
to
Reduce
the
Deficit,
It's
Fair
to
Ask
Wealthier
Americans
to
Pay
a
Greater
Percentage
in
Taxes
than
the
Middle
Class
or
Those
Less
Well
Off
Agree
Disagree
80
72
72
72
68
70
63
60
60
50
39
40
36
30
30
26
27
25
20
10
0
All
Americans
White
Mainline
Catholic
Unaffiliated
White
Catholic
White
Evangelical
Source:
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
PRRI/RNS
Religion
News
Survey,
November
2011
(N=1,002)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
28

29. The
Buffet
Rule
30%
Favorability
of
Increasing
the
Tax
Rate
on
Americans
Earning
more
than
$1
dollars
a
year
Favor
Oppose
80
74
74
70
71
69
69
69
69
70
65
60
50
40
27
29
29
28
29
30
24
24
26
23
20
10
0
All
Americans
Catholic
Unaffiliated
Non-­‐ White
White
Black
Other
White
ChrisAan
Mainline
Catholic
Protestant
ChrisAan
Evangelical
Source:
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
American
Values
Survey,
September
2011
(N=1,505)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
29

30. IMMIGRATION
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
30

31. Growing
Number
of
Newcomers:
Threat
or
Strength?
Aptudes
towards
the
growing
number
of
newcomers
1
1
3
Strengthens
American
society
Threatens
tradiAonal
American
customs
and
values
Neither
42
53
Both
Don't
know
Source:
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
Pluralism,
ImmigraAon,
Civic
IntegraAon
Survey,
August
2011
(N=2,450)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
31

32. Polariza*on
over
Immigra*on
Policy
By
Party
DREAM
Act,
Path
to
Ci*zenship,
and
Deporta*on
by
Party
General
Public
Tea
Party
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
80
70
67
70
60
57
56
56
55
60
46
48
49
50
39
42
40
40
30
26
29
20
10
0
FAVOR
DREAM
ACT-­‐Allowing
illegal
FAVOR
PATH
TO
CITIZENSHIP-­‐Allowing
DISAGREE
WITH
DEPORTATION-­‐We
immigrants
brought
to
the
U.S.
as
undocumented
immigrants
who
have
should
make
a
serious
effort
to
deport
all
children
to
gain
legal
resident
status
if
been
in
the
U.S.
for
several
years
to
earn
illegal
immigrants
back
to
their
home
they
join
the
military
or
go
to
college
legal
working
status
and
an
opportunity
countries
for
ciAzenship
in
the
future
Source:
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
Pluralism,
ImmigraAon,
Civic
IntegraAon
Survey,
August
2011
(N=2,450)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
32

33. With
Excep*on
of
White
Evangelicals,
Broad
Religious
Support
for
DREAM
Act
Support
for
the
Dream
Act
by
Religious
Affilia*on
Favor
Oppose
70
64
65
66
57
58
60
54
52
50
44
40
42
40
40
36
30
30
30
20
10
0
General
public
White
White
mainline
Catholic
Black
Protestant
Unaffiliated
Non-­‐ChrisAan
evangelical
affiliated
Source:
Public
Religion
Research
InsAtute,
Pluralism,
ImmigraAon,
Civic
IntegraAon
Survey,
August
2011
(N=2,450)
Religion
and
Poli,cs
in
2012
33

34. GOD
AND
POLITICS
What
Public
Opinion
Tells
us
About
Religion
in
the
2012
ElecAon
Follow
us
Online:
Ø www.facebook.com/publicreligion
Ø www.twiker.com/publicreligion
Ø www.publicreligion.org
Public
Religion
Research Dr.
Robert
P.
Jones,
President
Institute Daniel
Cox,
Director
of
Research