UCSF Informatics Day 2014 - Sam Hawgood, "Informatics at UCSF"
1. Second curve
First curve
Natural trajectory
Time
Performance
Ian Morrison
“You must ride the first curve-
a company’s traditional
business carried out in a
familiar corporate climate-to
the all-important second
curve.
The second curve is the
future-the new technologies,
new consumers, and new
markets that companies must
command to survive and
thrive.”
The Second Curve
planning for an uncertain future
Disruption
3. UC HEALTH
• 5 Academic Medical Centers
• 3000 beds
• 2,400 average daily census
• 4,000,000 outpatient visits
• 8,000 physicians
• Operating budget approx. $7.5M
• 16 professional schools
• 14,000 health-related students
Notes de l'éditeur
As hospitals and health care systems shift from the volume-based first curve to the value-based second curve, they must transform their business and health care delivery models to balance quality, cost, patient preferences and health status to achieve real value and outcomes.
The Velocity of Changedifferent dimensions of the future move at different rates
if something is going to be a big deal in the future it has to start sometime
Short half life
Budget cuts, cost shifting (sharing), closed networks, mergers and acquisitions, contractual integration, labor and benefit costs
Medium half life
Coverage expansion, meaningful use, value-based purchasing
Long half life
Reimbursement reform, cultural transformation, medical education reform
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