2. KCM Divided into
Three Sections

5. “We expect single-family
home sales and housing
starts to be at the highest
level since 2007.”
Frank E. Nothaft
Chief Economist at Freddie Mac

6. PRICES

7. Year-over-Year Price Changes by Region
FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013

8. 2012 4Q
2013 1Q
2013 2Q
2013 3Q

9. Days on Market

10. Year-over-Year Price Changes by State
FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013

11. DISTRESSED PROPERTIES
Months Supply
CoreLogic11/2013

12. Year-over-Year Change in Prices
S&P Case Shiller 11/2013

13. Sustainability of Current Price Increases
Fitch Ratings11/2013

14. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Metropolitan Area
Month-Over-Month
Metropolitan Area
Month-Over-Month
Atlanta
.5%
Miami
.8%
Boston
.5%
Minneapolis
.8%
Charlotte
-.2%
New York
.6%
Chicago
.3%
Phoenix
1.2%
Cleveland
.3%
Portland
.7%
Dallas
.2%
San Diego
.9%
Denver
.2%
San Francisco
.8%
Detroit
1.5%
Seattle
.3%
Las Vegas
1.3%
Tampa
.2%
Los Angeles
1.1%
Washington
.4%
S&P Case Shiller 11/2013

15. "The conditions that led to the robust appreciation
experienced earlier this year, including historically
low mortgage interest rates, high affordability, low
inventory and high demand, are waning. In their
place, we're beginning to see more inventory and
rising mortgage rates, which will lead to further
normalization in the market going forward."
Dr. Stan Humphries
Zillow Chief Economist

16. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
NAR 11/2013

17. Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
5%
1.8%
0.9%
0%
-5%
-5%
-7.6%
-6.2%
-10%
-14%
-15%
-13%
-16.8%
-20.8%
-20%
-24%
-25%
%
January February
-24%
-20.8%
March
April
May
June
July
August
Sept
October
-16.8%
-14%
-13%
-7.6%
-5%
-6.2%
1.8%
0.9%
NAR 11/2013

19. "All those young people who moved in
with their parents over the past few
Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.
years and didn't move out during the
recession, there should be pent-up
demand for household formation."
Jed Kolko
Trulia’s Chief Economist

20. “We believe millennials will
Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.
follow every generation that
preceded them, buying homes
once their economic situation
improves.”
Joseph Snider
VP and senior credit officer at Moody’s

22. 121M
Current Households
in the United States
Projected Growth over
the Next 3 Years
3.7%
Number of Additional
Households Formed
4.48M
Urban Land Institute 11/2013

23. ta·per
ˈtāpər/
Verb – to diminish
or reduce

24. A government stimulus
package…
for the
HOUSING
INDUSTRY

25. “Although the consensus is the
Affordability is still good compared to 2014 to 50 years.
Fed will wait untilany time over the last start
to taper asset purchases,
December is still possible.”
Bill McBride
Calculated Risk

26. 2013
30 Year Fixed
Mortgage Rates
Federal Reserve 11/2013

27. Mortgage Rate
Projections
Analyst
Projected Rate
4Q 2014
Fannie Mae
4.8%
5.3%
5.0%
5.3%
National Assoc of Realtors
Freddie Mac
Mortgage Bankers Assoc

28. The Cost of Waiting
Mortgage
Interest Rate
Payment (P&I)
$250,000
4.3%
1,237.18
Next Year $250,000
5.3%
1,388.26
Today
Monthly Difference
$161.08

30. 30 DAY PLAN

31. www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/onthego

32. Re-up all of your existing listings

33. List EVERY expired
listing in January

34. Where Buyers Found the Home They Purchased
by percentages
50
45
40
Newspaper
Yard Sign
Internet
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NAR 11/2013

35. eGuides Available
eGuides Available

36. 15% Discount

38. 5,500,000
Existing Home Sales
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
S&P Case Shiller 11/2013

39. Pending Home Sales
100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 11/2013

40. RETURN ON INVESTMENT
January 2000 – November 2013
65.7
47
29.5
3
Dow
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
S&P
NASDAQ
Real Estate

41. 30 Year Fixed Rate
Mortgage History
January 2012 – November 2013
Federal Reserve 11/2013

42. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 11/2013

43. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
4.0
NAR 11/2013

44. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
14%
NAR 11/2013

46. On Average
14,027
NAR’s November
Existing Home
Sales Report
Homes Sell
SALES
EVERY DAY!
UP 6%
INVENTORY
over last year
PRICES
UP 12.8%
over last year
UP .9%
over last year

47. DISTRESSED PROPERTIES
Months Supply
CoreLogic11/2013

48. 88
%
Where Do Buyers
Find a Home?
92
%
of all buyers search online
during home buying process
of all buyers purchased a
home through an agent
%
28
of all buyers look to
print newspaper ads

49. 45
40
35
Where Buyers Find the
Home They Purchase
Over the Last 10 Years
by percentage
30
*NAR 11/2013
The Internet
25
20
15
10
Yard Signs
5
Newspapers
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

50. 2013
30 Year Fixed
Mortgage Rates
Federal Reserve 11/2013

53. facebook.com/groups/kcmmembers

54. Resources
Slide
Slide Title
Link
5
Frank Nothaft Quote
http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Nov_2013_public_outlook.pdf
7
Year-over-Year Price Changes by Region
http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf
8
FHFA Maps
http://www.fhfa.gov/
9
Days on Market
http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=396
10
Year-over-Year Change by State
http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf
11
Distressed Properties
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx
12
Year-over-Year Change in Prices
13
Sustainability of Current Price Increases
14
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
15
Dr. Stan Humphries Quote
17
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
19
Jed Kolko Quote
http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/11/Fitch%20-%20Housing%
http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/housing-market-performs-well-despite-rising-interest-rates-2013-10-24
www.realtor.org
http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/realestate/sns-201311091600--tms--realestmctnig-a20131115-2
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

55. Resources
Slide
Slide Title
20
Joseph Snider Quote
22
Emerging Trends in 2014
25
Bill McBride Quote
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/11/will-fed-taper-in-december-inflation-is.html
26
2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
28
Mortgage Rate Projections
Link
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/slow-household-formation-cyclical-like-all-things-real-estate-moodys
http://www.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULI-Documents/Emerging-Trends-in-Real-Estate-Americas-20
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf
http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf
http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlo
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.p
df
34
Where Buyer Found the Home They Purchased
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/11/05/2013-profile-of-home-buyer-andsellers-technology-trends
39
Pending Home Sales
http://www.realtor.org/
40
Return on Investment
http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
41
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
42
Dr. Stan Humphries Quote
https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spiceassets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomeprice-release-0730.pdf
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

56. Resources
Slide
Slide Title
Link
44, 45
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale,
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
www.realtor.org
47
Distressed Properties
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx
48
Where Do Buyers Find a Home?
www.realtor.org
50
2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

57. Successful People Start Fast and
FINISH STRONG