SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  5
Télécharger pour lire hors ligne
Crisis
Senator, soon to be President,
Kennedy said this quote in a speech in
Indianapolis in April of 1959. To
Westerners, this maybe exemplifies
the ancient wisdom of the East and is
cited frequently by motivational
speakers, self-help books and so
on. Another variation of that quote is
often used, “A crisis provides an
opportunity for change and growth as
well as a danger

of regression or stagnation,” and maybe that's where you heard it first. Many
linguists consider JFK’s comments to be in error, a poor translation, but, no matter,
his words have become what we believe.

There is danger and opportunity when evaluating Emerging Markets (EM) and their
contagious impact on the rest of the world in 2014. While today EM is only 13% of
Global Market Indices, Emerging Markets have 80% of the world’s population, over
30% of the globe’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and all of the world’s excess
growth promise. EM nations are primary exporters of commodities to the world and
key consumers of multiple products from the Developed World.

The Danger (in the short run). The EM is a diverse set of countries and many
have been in the news recently, not for the best of reasons. Brazil, Indonesia,
India, South Africa and Turkey have endured two bouts of capital flight that rocked
global markets in May of 2013 and last month. These nations face difficult
decisions; they must reduce their imports, raise their interest rates and attempt to
hold down inflation during election years. Whoa, Nellie. The prognosis is not
assured. China, so vast that it is simultaneously an emerging market and the
world’s second largest economy, is attempting to manage, through statecraft, a
migration from a manufacturing oriented nation to one driven primarily by
consumption. This is an onerous task that can be done albeit at China’s pace. We
should cry for Argentina because sometimes poor political decisions keep nations
among the emerging forever.

The Opportunity (in the longer run).Emerging markets are countries that are
restructuring their economies along market-oriented lines and offer a wealth of
opportunities in trade, technology transfers and foreign direct investment. The
graphs below show the opportunity.
Every one of the nations expected to have GDP growth rates well above average
are EM nations. Every one. Now, take a look at the chart of Total market over
GDP. The US, which was an EM in the late 19th century, has enjoyed excellent
growth in GDP and has earned a market value more than 100% of its GDP. Win
win. Some of the EM nations may forever be emerging, to be sure, but those that
can make it to Developed status have tremendous investment appeal and seem to
be well worth the risk. The potential return from well above growth rates in GDP
coupled with the chance of seeing market to GDP ratios improve from the 50% to
the 100% range is why we maintain our strategic position in the EM markets. The
Danger is why we are not recommending more. We will be reviewing this topic with
you in this space in the upcoming weeks. Stay tuned.

-Mike Weiner, Chief Investment Officer, Unified Trust Company

Check out this link for more information regarding who is an emerging market
https://www.emfunds.us.assetmanagement.hsbc.com/investing-in-emergingmarkets/map-at-night/default.fs

This report was prepared by Unified Trust Company, N.A. and reflects the current opinion of the authors. The sources and
data upon which the report are based are believed to be accurate and reliable, but Unified Trust does not warrant the
accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions contained
herein, and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, this report or its
contents. The information, opinion, and forward looking statements in this report are subject to change and may be
withdrawn without notice. Information may be available to Unified Trust or its affiliates that is not reflected in this
report. This report is general in nature and is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and
because of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs
of any investor. Speak with your Unified Trust representative concerning your personal situation. This report is for
information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment product. Before
investing, it is important that you understand that investment products (including securities and mutual funds) and insurance
products involve risk and may lose value. They are not FDIC insured or insured by any Federal government agency and are
not deposits of, guaranteed or insured by Unified Trust. Diversification of your investments and allocation among different
asset classes does not guarantee a profit or eliminate the risk of loss of value of the assets, and past performance and
economic data presented is historical, and is not a predictive or a guarantee of future results. Unified Trust does not provide
tax, accounting or legal advice, and information presented about tax considerations is not intended as tax advice and should
not be relied upon for the purpose of avoiding any tax penalties. Clients should always review any planned financial
transaction(s) or arrangement(s) that may have tax, accounting or legal implications with their personal, non-Unified Trust
tax and legal professional advisors.

Contenu connexe

Plus de The 401k Study Group ®

Managing Your Clients' Workplace Retirement Accounts Pre-rollover w ith absca...
Managing Your Clients' Workplace Retirement Accounts Pre-rollover w ith absca...Managing Your Clients' Workplace Retirement Accounts Pre-rollover w ith absca...
Managing Your Clients' Workplace Retirement Accounts Pre-rollover w ith absca...The 401k Study Group ®
 
Elements of a clearly defined IPS for dc plans
Elements of a clearly defined IPS for dc plansElements of a clearly defined IPS for dc plans
Elements of a clearly defined IPS for dc plansThe 401k Study Group ®
 
Article seven attributes of an excellent DC Plan
Article seven attributes of an excellent DC PlanArticle seven attributes of an excellent DC Plan
Article seven attributes of an excellent DC PlanThe 401k Study Group ®
 
How Advisor-Driven Education Motivates 401k Participants
How Advisor-Driven Education Motivates 401k ParticipantsHow Advisor-Driven Education Motivates 401k Participants
How Advisor-Driven Education Motivates 401k ParticipantsThe 401k Study Group ®
 

Plus de The 401k Study Group ® (20)

EveryIncome
EveryIncome EveryIncome
EveryIncome
 
Managing Your Clients' Workplace Retirement Accounts Pre-rollover w ith absca...
Managing Your Clients' Workplace Retirement Accounts Pre-rollover w ith absca...Managing Your Clients' Workplace Retirement Accounts Pre-rollover w ith absca...
Managing Your Clients' Workplace Retirement Accounts Pre-rollover w ith absca...
 
Advisors - Partner with Ubiquity
Advisors - Partner with UbiquityAdvisors - Partner with Ubiquity
Advisors - Partner with Ubiquity
 
8 Ideas To Help Improve Your DC Plan
8 Ideas To Help Improve Your DC Plan8 Ideas To Help Improve Your DC Plan
8 Ideas To Help Improve Your DC Plan
 
DC Top 10 for 2021
DC Top 10 for 2021DC Top 10 for 2021
DC Top 10 for 2021
 
ForceManager 5500
ForceManager 5500ForceManager 5500
ForceManager 5500
 
Elements of a clearly defined IPS for dc plans
Elements of a clearly defined IPS for dc plansElements of a clearly defined IPS for dc plans
Elements of a clearly defined IPS for dc plans
 
What will DC plans look like in 2025
What will DC plans look like in 2025What will DC plans look like in 2025
What will DC plans look like in 2025
 
3(16) services from AdvisorTrust
3(16) services from AdvisorTrust3(16) services from AdvisorTrust
3(16) services from AdvisorTrust
 
Article seven attributes of an excellent DC Plan
Article seven attributes of an excellent DC PlanArticle seven attributes of an excellent DC Plan
Article seven attributes of an excellent DC Plan
 
Seven Simple Truths for Plan Sponsors
Seven Simple Truths for Plan SponsorsSeven Simple Truths for Plan Sponsors
Seven Simple Truths for Plan Sponsors
 
Hero7's Plan Governance Index
Hero7's Plan Governance IndexHero7's Plan Governance Index
Hero7's Plan Governance Index
 
Granite Group PEP Infographic
Granite Group PEP InfographicGranite Group PEP Infographic
Granite Group PEP Infographic
 
How Advisor-Driven Education Motivates 401k Participants
How Advisor-Driven Education Motivates 401k ParticipantsHow Advisor-Driven Education Motivates 401k Participants
How Advisor-Driven Education Motivates 401k Participants
 
Managing Fiduciry Tasks and Duties
Managing Fiduciry Tasks and DutiesManaging Fiduciry Tasks and Duties
Managing Fiduciry Tasks and Duties
 
3(16) Fiduciary Assesment
3(16) Fiduciary Assesment3(16) Fiduciary Assesment
3(16) Fiduciary Assesment
 
The Reason for the Buzz about MEPs
The Reason for the Buzz about MEPsThe Reason for the Buzz about MEPs
The Reason for the Buzz about MEPs
 
Maximize Your DB Plan
Maximize Your DB PlanMaximize Your DB Plan
Maximize Your DB Plan
 
Pentegra Stats & Surprises 2018
Pentegra Stats & Surprises 2018Pentegra Stats & Surprises 2018
Pentegra Stats & Surprises 2018
 
Behavioral Governance Training
Behavioral Governance TrainingBehavioral Governance Training
Behavioral Governance Training
 

Crisis | Under The Hood

  • 1. Crisis Senator, soon to be President, Kennedy said this quote in a speech in Indianapolis in April of 1959. To Westerners, this maybe exemplifies the ancient wisdom of the East and is cited frequently by motivational speakers, self-help books and so on. Another variation of that quote is often used, “A crisis provides an opportunity for change and growth as well as a danger of regression or stagnation,” and maybe that's where you heard it first. Many linguists consider JFK’s comments to be in error, a poor translation, but, no matter, his words have become what we believe. There is danger and opportunity when evaluating Emerging Markets (EM) and their contagious impact on the rest of the world in 2014. While today EM is only 13% of
  • 2. Global Market Indices, Emerging Markets have 80% of the world’s population, over 30% of the globe’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and all of the world’s excess growth promise. EM nations are primary exporters of commodities to the world and key consumers of multiple products from the Developed World. The Danger (in the short run). The EM is a diverse set of countries and many have been in the news recently, not for the best of reasons. Brazil, Indonesia, India, South Africa and Turkey have endured two bouts of capital flight that rocked global markets in May of 2013 and last month. These nations face difficult decisions; they must reduce their imports, raise their interest rates and attempt to hold down inflation during election years. Whoa, Nellie. The prognosis is not assured. China, so vast that it is simultaneously an emerging market and the world’s second largest economy, is attempting to manage, through statecraft, a migration from a manufacturing oriented nation to one driven primarily by consumption. This is an onerous task that can be done albeit at China’s pace. We should cry for Argentina because sometimes poor political decisions keep nations among the emerging forever. The Opportunity (in the longer run).Emerging markets are countries that are restructuring their economies along market-oriented lines and offer a wealth of opportunities in trade, technology transfers and foreign direct investment. The graphs below show the opportunity.
  • 3.
  • 4. Every one of the nations expected to have GDP growth rates well above average are EM nations. Every one. Now, take a look at the chart of Total market over GDP. The US, which was an EM in the late 19th century, has enjoyed excellent growth in GDP and has earned a market value more than 100% of its GDP. Win win. Some of the EM nations may forever be emerging, to be sure, but those that can make it to Developed status have tremendous investment appeal and seem to be well worth the risk. The potential return from well above growth rates in GDP coupled with the chance of seeing market to GDP ratios improve from the 50% to the 100% range is why we maintain our strategic position in the EM markets. The Danger is why we are not recommending more. We will be reviewing this topic with you in this space in the upcoming weeks. Stay tuned. -Mike Weiner, Chief Investment Officer, Unified Trust Company Check out this link for more information regarding who is an emerging market
  • 5. https://www.emfunds.us.assetmanagement.hsbc.com/investing-in-emergingmarkets/map-at-night/default.fs This report was prepared by Unified Trust Company, N.A. and reflects the current opinion of the authors. The sources and data upon which the report are based are believed to be accurate and reliable, but Unified Trust does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions contained herein, and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, this report or its contents. The information, opinion, and forward looking statements in this report are subject to change and may be withdrawn without notice. Information may be available to Unified Trust or its affiliates that is not reflected in this report. This report is general in nature and is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and because of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. Speak with your Unified Trust representative concerning your personal situation. This report is for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment product. Before investing, it is important that you understand that investment products (including securities and mutual funds) and insurance products involve risk and may lose value. They are not FDIC insured or insured by any Federal government agency and are not deposits of, guaranteed or insured by Unified Trust. Diversification of your investments and allocation among different asset classes does not guarantee a profit or eliminate the risk of loss of value of the assets, and past performance and economic data presented is historical, and is not a predictive or a guarantee of future results. Unified Trust does not provide tax, accounting or legal advice, and information presented about tax considerations is not intended as tax advice and should not be relied upon for the purpose of avoiding any tax penalties. Clients should always review any planned financial transaction(s) or arrangement(s) that may have tax, accounting or legal implications with their personal, non-Unified Trust tax and legal professional advisors.