Building the Future with Technology: The Next Five Years
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Join us as Guido talks about "The Next Five Years." This provocative session will discuss the current and future trends that affect the proliferation and use of the latest technologies in business, such as mobility, virtualization, energy and video. Highlights will include Cisco's unique innovation model, the processes and technologies derived from that model, as well as use cases of these emerging technologies in business. Guido will also ‘connect-the-dots' of these various technologies and present more comprehensive solutions that can further drive and accelerate business transformation.
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Building the Future with Technology: The Next Five Years
- 1. Building The Future: The Next 5 Years Dr. Guido Jouret CTO and VP/GM, Emerging Technologies Group © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 1
- 2. • Industry Trends • Cisco as an Innovator • What’s Next: The Future of Connected Business • Summary and Conclusions © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 2
- 4. Volatile Economies Consumerization Globalization Social Networking and Sustainable Mass Collaboration Development
- 5. GREATEST ENGINEERING ENGINEERING’S GRAND ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE 20TH CENTURY CHALLENGES 1. Electrification 1. Make solar energy economical 2. Automobile 2. Provide energy from fusion 3. Airplane 3. Develop carbon sequestration methods 4. Water supply & distribution 5. Electronics 4. Manage the nitrogen cycle 6. Radio & Television 5. Provide access to clean water 7. Agricultural mechanization 6. Restore & improve urban infrastructure 8. Computers 7. Advance health informatics 9. Telephone 8. Engineer better medicine 10. Air-conditioning & refrigeration 9. Reverse engineer the brain 11. Highways 10. Prevent nuclear terror 12. Spacecraft 13. Internet 11. Secure cyberspace 14. Imaging 12. Enhance virtual reality 15. Household Appliances 13. Advance personalized learning 16. Health Technologies 14. Engineer the tools of scientific discovery 17. Petrochemical Technologies 18. Laser & Fiber Optics 19. Nuclear Technologies 20. High-performance materials © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. National Academy of Engineering: http://www.greatachievements.org/ Cisco Confidential 5
- 6. 1 Enable Productivity Trillion Create New Services 300 Environmentally Friendly Million Devices 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Source: Cisco IBSG Cisco Confidential 6
- 7. Pervasive Communications Mobility Globalization Video • In 2014, 91% of traffic • Nearly 1/3 of the • 28% of employees use • Urbanization of 700 on networks will be Collaboration market will their mobile phone as the million people over next Video be Hosted by 2013 primary work phone decade • 40% of professional PC’s • From 2010 to 2015, • Big cities getting • 2 billion videos are will be managed under a global mobile data traffic watched each day on bigger…100 new 1M+ hosted virtual desktop will grow 3.3x faster than YouTube cities by 2025 model by 2013 global fixed broadband data traffic. • Mobile video will • 3 Billion people • By 2014, over 400 million increase 66x from 2009 of the world’s Internet • Mobile traffic originating connected to the to 2014 users will access the from tablet devices will internet—next 10 years network solely through a grow 205x from 2010 to mobile connection. 2015! Sources: Cisco VNI, Cisco IBSG, Gartner, Royal Pingdom, IDC
- 8. Web Video Pervasive Web Pervasive Video Market Transition (start: 1995–achieved: 2000) (start: 2010) Business Disruption Virtualized Transactions Virtualized Services New Businesses eCommerce eHealth, eEducation, etc. Smarter Endpoints Java, Flash, HTML-5 Medianet Service Interface (MSI) Web Services Media Services New Shared Infrastructure (web-servers, application acceleration, (media transformation, recording, load Balancers, etc.) streaming, intercompany, etc.) 90% of Internet traffic after 3 years Network Impact 50% of Internet traffic after 5 years (forecast)* Architecture Service Oriented Architecture Medianet *Visual Networking Index, Cisco Systems 2010
- 9. Tablet & Smartphone Users vs. Other Markets 8000 6898 7000 74.1% 6000 penetration 5113 5000 Installed Base (Millions) 4000 3000 18.4% 2000 penetration 5.7% 2000 1270 penetration 1000 1000 600 513 555 394 0 World Mobile Internet Total PCs Telephone TV Newspaper Broadband Smartphone Population Subscribers Users Lines Subscriptions Circulation Subscriptions & Tablet Users Source: RBC Capital Markets
- 10. BUSINESS CONSUMER ANALYTICS DIRECTORY INTEROPERABILITY TRANSCODING network MULTIPOINT OPTIMIZATION RECORDING
- 12. Video Virtual Audio+Text Mobile Dedicated Packet Fixed Switched Circuit Routed Shared Bridged WAN LAN VOICE CONNECTIVITY INFRA COLLABORATION Time
- 13. Business Model Hosted & Employee Workplace User Contribution Pay per Use Empowerment Flexibility Rich Internet • Software as a Applications Service Technology • Desktop Virtualization • Cloud Computing Virtualization • Rich Media Video • YouTube Collaboration • IP Wireless • Mobility Communications Consumer • Consumerization Electronics
- 14. Incubate New Technologies Business Models & Processes TelePresence, Partner w/ Other Companies IP Telephony, Wireless, Network Admission Linksys, Quad, Control WebEx, Pulse (Microsoft, NetSolve Symantec, others) Acquisitions Design New Products CRS-3, 140+ Acquisitions Spin in Investments IOS XR, ASR, Andiamo Nexus 1986: AGS 1993: Cisco 7000 2010: Carrier Routing multi-protocol router Series Router System (CSR)-3
- 15. #12 in 2009 “The absolute best-in-class implementation of innovation is what Cisco is doing with its emerging technologies group.” Forbes Magazine Geoffrey Moore Managing Director, TCG Advisors
- 16. Adoption 100% Mainframe Mini PC Laptop Tablet 0% Time I think there is a world market for In 2005, laptop computer sales maybe five computers accounted for 50.9 % of all PC sales. TJ Watson, IBM Cnet.com
- 17. Digital Video 100% Cisco/SA 80% 63% 60% 40% 20% Adoption 0% 100% Analog Digital IP 0% Time
- 18. Voice 100% 80% 60% 40% 31% Cisco 20% 0% Adoption Mobile/ 100% Analog Digital Hardware IP Software IP 0% Time
- 20. From… To… PC Multiple Devices Documents Rich Media Intranet Extranet Search Information Finds You
- 21. Video and Cloud and Wired-Wireless Collaboration Virtualization UCS Express TrustSec Medianet Application Velocity Virtual Desktop Services WebEx on ASR 4G WAN Optimization S/W Redundancy (ASR) Cisco ISR G2 Cisco ASR 1000 Smart Install EnergyWise Scalability to 360 Gbps (ASR 1013) 40-Gbps ESP (ASR)
- 22. Start here Consolidation Virtualization Automation Utility Market Intercloud Private Clouds Unified Computing Unified Fabric Data Center Networking
- 23. • Meetings • Training / Education • Safety & Security • Events • Customer / Patient Interaction • Advertising • Organizational Communications
- 24. Service Delivery Platform [SDP] (for S+CC) Videoscape (for SP Video) Medianet (for Ent Video) Devices & Applications Management Security Network Services (for Media, Collaboration and more) Network Infrastructure
- 25. Boosting Revenue With A Fresh Client Experience in Wealth Management & Private Banking Engagement and Solutions • “Virtual Advisers” via TelePresence Results • Increased revenue • Shorter sales cycles • Higher customer satisfaction • Increased trust • Improved productivity
- 26. A Smart & Connected Community Engagement and Solutions • IP convergence and integration over Cisco IP backbone Lighting Systems Physical Security HVAC Systems • Deployed lighting controls from Cisco IP phones • ‘Virtual Security Guard' using TelePresence • IP-based Centralized Management System Results • 60% energy savings
- 29. Solid-State Systems Stanford prof sequences own genome in weeks Could Sequence a Genome For $100 2015: hours, $100 2010: 3 weeks, $50K 2004: 13 years, $3B http://inform.com/science-and-technology/stanford-prof-sequences-genome-weeks-627084a http://gizmodo.com/5581377/solid+state-systems-could-sequence-a-genome-for-100
- 30. SF, San Jose Roll Out Electric Vehicle Charging Stations Source: US Department of Energy, July 2010 – Recovery.gov
- 31. Global Mobile vs. Desktop Internet User Projection, 2007 – 2015E Today Source: Morgan Stanley Research
- 33. 3D IP TV Events Virtual Desktop Biometrics Online Education gaming Analytics Connected Transportation Video Storage Healthcare
- 35. Sensing Computing Energy Mobility Video Collaboration Voice Data
- 36. Product Leadership Customer Intimacy Culture Solutions Cloud Smart+Connected Solutions Communities
- 37. Thank you.