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The Future Is Video Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG) June 10, 2011
Global Consumer Internet Traffic Growing 500% Between 2009 and 2014 36% CAGR 2009–2014 15% 27% 10% 46% * VoIP, Online Gaming, and Video Calling contribute 1% or less in 2014 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014 - www.cisco.com/go/vni
Mobile data traffic will increase 39-fold from 2009 to 2014 4% 5% 108% CAGR 2009–2014 8% 17% Exabytes/mo 66% Mobility An Even Faster Growing Subset Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014 - www.cisco.com/go/vni
Video Driving Explosive Network Growth Global Consumer Internet Video CompositionVideo traffic increasingly driven by live video and TV 52% CAGR 2009–2014 16% 16% 17% 42% Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014 - www.cisco.com/go/vni
If All Video Minutes Were 3D in 2014, the Video Forecast Would Be 3X Higher
Consumers Are Widely Embracing Internet Video Content     Watching Internet Video (by Age) Watching Internet Video (by Content) 93% 80% 81% 67% 61% 55% 52% 51% 38% 25% User-created Short Clips (youtube) TVPrograms Professional Short Clips (news) Movies Sporting Events 2.6 hours  1.1 hours  47min 43min 1.7hours  Time per week 	Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers  Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Consumer Behavior Is Fueling the Growth
Lifestyle is also Driving Adoption Living Situation Employment Status Base: US Broadband Consumers Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010
Rise of “On-Demand” Models The Consumer Cloud For the Consumer: Capabilities that enable consumers to easily & securely access the content, applications, and infrastructure they seek from any location or device. For the Service Provider: Capabilities that provide companies with a  re-usable, expandable, and agile common services engine for quick time to market  and better insight & control over consumers’ end-to-end experience.
The CDN ImperativeThe Case for Federation Definition  A multi-footprint, CDN capability built from resources that are owned and operated by autonomous members. Objectives Allow individual members to sell Internet wide delivery  Extend ONnet differentiators (quality, scale ...) across footprints  Simplify contracting with content providers  New interconnect model to complement IP transit & peering  Reduce local transport costs  Platform for value added services and SP retail services
Which CDN Components Need to Be Interconnected? Request-Routing system: Redirecting client requests to an “appropriate” federated CDN/Cache for delivery Content Distribution* system:  Distributing content from one CDN to another Accounting system:  Moving accounting data between CDNs for billing and reporting purposes (both Retail and Wholesale) *Not to be confused with “Delivery” of content from a Cache to the client
CDN Federation Market OpportunityFoundation for Retail and Wholesale Services Content, Service & Application Revenues Public Cloud Mobile Services TVEverywhere nScreen Services  Saas Virtual Private Cloud Application Stores Content Stores Digital Locker Content Management & VAS Revenues Syndication Storage Metadata Mgt Transcoding Analytics Customizable Players Security Payments Hosting Ad Insertion Authentication Enhanced Delivery Revenues Apps Acceleration Cloud Acceleration Site Acceleration Multicast Qos HD Proximity On-demand Delivery  Revenues Object Delivery Live Streaming Download IP Transit Peering IP Core Network Cost Reduction IP Aggregation CDN CDNI Gateway CDNI Gateway Content Provider CDN CDN CDNI Gateway CDNI Gateway
Current CDN Market Scope Mostly Basic/Enhanced Delivery + Some VAS Content, Service & Application Revenues Public Cloud Mobile Services TVEverywhere nScreen Services  Saas Virtual Private Cloud Application Stores Content Stores Digital Locker Content Management & VAS Revenues Syndication Storage Metadata Mgt Transcoding Analytics Customizable Players Security Payments Hosting Ad Insertion Authentication Revenues Enhanced Delivery Revenues Apps Acceleration Cloud Acceleration Site Acceleration Multicast Qos HD Proximity On-demand Delivery  Revenues Object Delivery Live Streaming Download IP Transit Peering IP Core Network Cost Reduction IP Aggregation CDN CDNI Gateway CDNI Gateway Content Provider CDN CDN CDNI Gateway CDNI Gateway
Global CDN Market Forecast (M$) A Market of ~6B$ by 2015 with a “status quo” CDN approach A Market of ~12B$ by 2015, with a market push from SP “OnNet” CDNs CDN VAS Application acceleration Dynamic Site acceleration Other Object delivery Video delivery CDN VAS Application acceleration Dynamic Site acceleration Other Object delivery Video delivery ,[object Object]
No major disruption on the way CDNs handle Video or work with Content Providers
Some Content Providers prefers DIY CDNs to better control their content quality. More than 50% of the Internet Video traffic is not going over commercial CDNs

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The Future is Video

  • 1. The Future Is Video Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG) June 10, 2011
  • 2. Global Consumer Internet Traffic Growing 500% Between 2009 and 2014 36% CAGR 2009–2014 15% 27% 10% 46% * VoIP, Online Gaming, and Video Calling contribute 1% or less in 2014 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014 - www.cisco.com/go/vni
  • 3. Mobile data traffic will increase 39-fold from 2009 to 2014 4% 5% 108% CAGR 2009–2014 8% 17% Exabytes/mo 66% Mobility An Even Faster Growing Subset Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014 - www.cisco.com/go/vni
  • 4. Video Driving Explosive Network Growth Global Consumer Internet Video CompositionVideo traffic increasingly driven by live video and TV 52% CAGR 2009–2014 16% 16% 17% 42% Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014 - www.cisco.com/go/vni
  • 5. If All Video Minutes Were 3D in 2014, the Video Forecast Would Be 3X Higher
  • 6. Consumers Are Widely Embracing Internet Video Content Watching Internet Video (by Age) Watching Internet Video (by Content) 93% 80% 81% 67% 61% 55% 52% 51% 38% 25% User-created Short Clips (youtube) TVPrograms Professional Short Clips (news) Movies Sporting Events 2.6 hours 1.1 hours 47min 43min 1.7hours Time per week Base: U.S. Broadband Consumers Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010 Consumer Behavior Is Fueling the Growth
  • 7. Lifestyle is also Driving Adoption Living Situation Employment Status Base: US Broadband Consumers Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2010
  • 8. Rise of “On-Demand” Models The Consumer Cloud For the Consumer: Capabilities that enable consumers to easily & securely access the content, applications, and infrastructure they seek from any location or device. For the Service Provider: Capabilities that provide companies with a re-usable, expandable, and agile common services engine for quick time to market and better insight & control over consumers’ end-to-end experience.
  • 9. The CDN ImperativeThe Case for Federation Definition A multi-footprint, CDN capability built from resources that are owned and operated by autonomous members. Objectives Allow individual members to sell Internet wide delivery Extend ONnet differentiators (quality, scale ...) across footprints Simplify contracting with content providers New interconnect model to complement IP transit & peering Reduce local transport costs Platform for value added services and SP retail services
  • 10. Which CDN Components Need to Be Interconnected? Request-Routing system: Redirecting client requests to an “appropriate” federated CDN/Cache for delivery Content Distribution* system: Distributing content from one CDN to another Accounting system: Moving accounting data between CDNs for billing and reporting purposes (both Retail and Wholesale) *Not to be confused with “Delivery” of content from a Cache to the client
  • 11. CDN Federation Market OpportunityFoundation for Retail and Wholesale Services Content, Service & Application Revenues Public Cloud Mobile Services TVEverywhere nScreen Services Saas Virtual Private Cloud Application Stores Content Stores Digital Locker Content Management & VAS Revenues Syndication Storage Metadata Mgt Transcoding Analytics Customizable Players Security Payments Hosting Ad Insertion Authentication Enhanced Delivery Revenues Apps Acceleration Cloud Acceleration Site Acceleration Multicast Qos HD Proximity On-demand Delivery Revenues Object Delivery Live Streaming Download IP Transit Peering IP Core Network Cost Reduction IP Aggregation CDN CDNI Gateway CDNI Gateway Content Provider CDN CDN CDNI Gateway CDNI Gateway
  • 12. Current CDN Market Scope Mostly Basic/Enhanced Delivery + Some VAS Content, Service & Application Revenues Public Cloud Mobile Services TVEverywhere nScreen Services Saas Virtual Private Cloud Application Stores Content Stores Digital Locker Content Management & VAS Revenues Syndication Storage Metadata Mgt Transcoding Analytics Customizable Players Security Payments Hosting Ad Insertion Authentication Revenues Enhanced Delivery Revenues Apps Acceleration Cloud Acceleration Site Acceleration Multicast Qos HD Proximity On-demand Delivery Revenues Object Delivery Live Streaming Download IP Transit Peering IP Core Network Cost Reduction IP Aggregation CDN CDNI Gateway CDNI Gateway Content Provider CDN CDN CDNI Gateway CDNI Gateway
  • 13.
  • 14. No major disruption on the way CDNs handle Video or work with Content Providers
  • 15. Some Content Providers prefers DIY CDNs to better control their content quality. More than 50% of the Internet Video traffic is not going over commercial CDNs
  • 16. SP’s build OnNet CDNs delivering better quality, more video is consumed
  • 17. Content Providers migrate their premium content to benefit from this guaranteed quality
  • 18. DIY CDN is a less attractive option for Content Providers Source: Frost & Sullivan, Akamai, Limelight, Cisco VNI, IBSG analysis *CDN VAS: Storage, Transcoding, Security, Ad Insertion, Analytics, Consulting...
  • 19. Key Considerations Massive video growth drives both operating challenges, but also new revenue opportunities Determine what your strategy will be for content management and distribution Content management (CDNs) key to handle the increased traffic of video and provide basis for wholesale VAS Emerging federated CDN models may have both regulatory and anti-trust considerations

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. IP traffic will increase 4.3 fold from 2009–2014. In 2014, global IP traffic will reach 3/4 of a zettabyteAdvanced Internet video (3D and HD) will increase 23-fold between 2009 and 2014. By 2014, 3D and HDInternet video will comprise 46 percent of consumer Internet video traffic.By 2014, consumer IP traffic will represent 87% (or 55.8 exabytes) of monthly total global IP traffic; while business IP traffic will represent 13% (or 8.1 exabytes) of monthly total global IP traffic.The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand, Internet, and P2P) will continue to exceed 91 percent of global consumer traffic by 2014. Internet video is now 40 percent of consumer Internet traffic and by the end of 2010 it will be 57% in 2014 -- not including the amount of video exchanged through P2P file sharing.If all video minutes were 3D in 2014, the video forecast would be 3X higher (from 38 EB to 111 EB per month). High-definition video will be 45% of World Consumer Internet Video in 2014, up from 17% in 2009.3D video will be 1.4% of World Consumer Internet Video in 2014, up from 0.05% in 2010.World Internet-Video-to-TV (a subset of Internet Video) will increase 38-fold between 2009 and 2014, at a CAGR of 107%.World Internet-Video-to-PC (a subset of Internet Video) will increase 7-fold between 2009 and 2014, at a CAGR of 48%.Ambient Video (a subset of Internet Video) will increase 16-fold between 2009 and 2014, at a CAGR of 75%.65% of consumer’s prefer the SP as the provider of internet video to TV experiences
  2. from 38 EB to 111 EB per month
  3. Average annual household income is higher for those watch TV programs on the Internet ($45K vs. $42K)
  4. Customer Behavior54MM global Internet-enabled set-top boxes (Xbox360, Sony PS3, TiVo,Slingbox, Vudu, Roku…), +59% Y/Y in 2008 – transforming TVs into Internet streaming / on-demand video terminals81% of respondents with access to VoD on their television indicated they prefer watching VoD* content on their television than their PCMuch higher satisfaction watching Video on TV than PC% Very/fairly satisfied with overall viewing experienceVoD on TV – 91%;VoD on PC – 62%Supplier Response – Content and media companies are looking to seize on direct path to the consumer, but are growing increasingly open to collaboration models with SPsIncreasing investigation and emphasis on the part of MSOa to understand n-screen enablement to PC and remote and mobile devices (e.g., TV Anywhere). Recent Supreme Court ruling on n-DVR creates interesting possibilitiesJV between BBC, ITV, Five, BTPSBs have 67% votes, ISPs have 33%Open, Internet connected, DTT platformLinear channels, VoD, Web Apps...Will align with Freeview-HD in 2010JV controls top-level UI, EPG, Search Engine...Will support different business modelsJV will not operate a billing system, nor serve AdsParticipating ISPs need to promote Canvas devicesTV Quality standard for content deliveryWill use Push-VoD (also over DTT) for efficiency