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Cisco Visual Networking Index
(VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic
Forecast Update
March 2012




© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco
                                                           Cisco Public   1
Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict
                        global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and
                             business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.

              Global Forecast                                                                              Global Mobile
                   Data                                                                                     Speed Data




                                              Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                             Cisco Public   2
More Mobile Connections                                                     Faster Mobile Speeds




          More Mobile Users                                                   More Mobile Video




     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                          Cisco Public   3
By 2016, global mobile
data traffic will reach an
annual run rate of 130
exabytes per year.




                                                           • 130X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000
     130 Exabytes
                                                           • 33 Billion DVDs
     is equal to:
                                                           • 813 Quadrillion SMS text messages

     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  2011                                                                                               Cisco Public   4
12                                               78% CAGR 2011–2016


                                               10                                                       10.8 EB
                                                                                                        per mo
                          Exabytes per Month




                                                8


                                                6                                              6.9 EB
                                                                                               per mo

                                                4
                                                                                      4.2 EB
                                                                                      per mo
                                                2                            2.4 EB
                                                           0.6 EB   1.3 EB
                                                           per mo            per mo
                                                                    per mo
                                                0
                                                            2011    2012     2013     2014      2015     2016

     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                          Cisco Public   5
12                                           78% CAGR 2011–2016

                                                                                                        10.8
                                               10
                          Exabytes per Month




                                                8

                                                                                                6.9
                                                6                                         6.3

                                                4


                                                2
                                                           0.6 0.6
                                                0
                                                            2011     2012   2013   2014    2015       2016

     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                       Cisco Public   6
12                                        78% CAGR 2011–2016

                                                             Business
                                               10            Consumer                          23.1%
                          Exabytes per Month




                                                8


                                                6

                                                                                               76.9%
                                                4


                                                2


                                                0
                                                           2011    2012   2013   2014   2015   2016

     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                 Cisco Public   7
*
                                               12                                                  78% CAGR 2011–2016
                                                            Middle East and Africa (MEA)
                                                                                                         5.88%
                                               10           Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)             6.54%
                                                            Latin America (LATAM)                        6.83%
                          Exabytes per Month




                                                8           North America (NA)
                                                                                                         18.18%
                                                            Western Europe (WE)
                                                            Asia Pacific (APAC)
                                                6
                                                                                                         22.56%

                                                4

                                                                                                         40.01%
                                                2


                                                0
                                                           2011     2012      2013         2014   2015   2016     * Includes Japan

     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                            Cisco Public   8
In 2011, global mobile
data traffic more than
doubled (2.3X growth) for
the fourth year in a row,
despite economic
uncertainty, continued
traffic offload, and the
broader adoption of
tiered pricing.


     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  2011                                                                                            Cisco Public
                                                                                                  Cisco          9
100%
                                        90%
                                        80%
                                                             45%
                                                                      54%
                                        70%                                    61%     66%        69%       71%
                                        60%
                                        50%
                                        40%
                                        30%
                                                             55%
                                                                      46%
                                        20%                                    39%     34%        31%       29%
                                        10%
                                           0%
                                                            2011      2012      2013   2014      2015      2016
                                                           Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic           Mobile Cloud Traffic

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                             Cisco Public   10
16
                                                                  Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
                                               14                 Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

                                               12                                                               22%
                          Exabytes per Month




                                               10

                                                8

                                                6                                                               78%

                                                4

                                                2

                                                0
                                                           2011        2012       2013       2014        2015   2016

     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                               Cisco Public   11
45

                                               40           Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices            16%
                                                            Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
                                               35           Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic from All Portable Devices    4%
                          Exabytes per Month




                                               30

                                               25

                                               20                                                           80%

                                               15

                                               10

                                                5

                                                0
                                                           2011        2012         2013          2014      2015

     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                           Cisco Public   12
By 2016, 60 percent of
mobile users (3 billion
people) will belong to
the Gigabyte Club,
generating more than
one gigabyte of mobile
data traffic per month.

In 2011, 0.5 percent of
mobile users belonged
to the Gigabyte Club.
     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  2011                                                                                            Cisco Public
                                                                                                  Cisco          13
2011                          2016




                                                             92 MB                   1.2 GB
                                                           Traffic/month         Traffic/month
                                                                                 10 Video Clips
                                                            3 Video Clips        5 Videos

                                                            5 Audio tracks       50 Audio tracks

                                                            1 Video call         3 Video calls

                                                            5 App Downloads      10 App Downloads



© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                            Cisco Public   14
60%
                  Percentage of top 1 percent




                                                50%                    Top 1 percent
                        to total MB/mo




                                                40%


                                                30%
                                                           52%
                                                20%

                                                                         24%
                                                10%


                                                0%
                                                           Month 1    Month 21

     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                          Cisco Public   15
14
                                                                          1.3                     Top 20%
                                                12
                                                                                                  (102% Y/Y)
                                                                          2.0
                          Gigabytes per Month




                                                10
                                                                                                  Top 10%
                                                           0.6            3.0                     (81% Y/Y)
                                                 8
                                                           1.1

                                                 6         1.8                                    Top 5%
                                                                                                  (64% Y/Y)
                                                 4
                                                                          6.9
                                                           5.0                                    Top 1%
                                                 2                                                (37% Y/Y)


                                                 0
                                                           2010          2011

     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                           Cisco Public   16
45%

                                                40%              Month 10

                                                35%
                                                                 Month 21
                          Percentage of Users




                                                30%

                                                25%

                                                20%

                                                15%

                                                10%

                                                5%

                                                0%
                                                           Greater than Greater than Greater than Greater than Greater than
                                                              5 GB         2 GB        200 MB        20 MB        1 MB
     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                                      Cisco Public   17
3.0


                                                2.5                                                             Month 21
                                                                                                                Month 20
                          Gigabytes per Month




                                                                                                                Month 19
                                                2.0


                                                1.5


                                                1.0


                                                0.5


                                                0.0
                                                           Android   Apple   Windows   Blackberry Proprietary    Symbian


     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                                   Cisco Public   18
By 2016, there will be
1.4 mobile connections
(devices and M2M) for
every member of the
world’s population.




     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                          Cisco Public   19
100%
                                                             8%       12%
                                       90%                                     15%    19%      22%      25%
                                       80%
                                       70%
                                       60%
                                       50%
                                                             92%      88%
                                       40%                                     85%    81%      78%      75%
                                       30%
                                       20%
                                       10%
                                          0%
                                                             2011     2012     2013   2014     2015      2016
                                                           One Mobile Device          2 or More Mobile Devices

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                         Cisco Public   20
12                                                 78% CAGR 2011–2016
                                                            Other Portable Devices (2.2%)
                                                            M2M (4.7%)
                                                10
                                                            Home Gateways (4.8%)
                           Exabytes per Month




                                                            Non-Smartphones (5.7%)
                                                 8          Tablets (10.0%)
                                                            Laptops and Netbooks (24.2%)
                                                 6          Smartphones (48.3%)


                                                 4


                                                 2                                                                 (Figures in
                                                                                                                 legend refer
                                                                                                                      to traffic
                                                 0                                                                    share in
                                                           2011     2012      2013          2014   2015   2016
                                                                                                                        2016.)
     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                            Cisco Public   21
Smartphone     =   35 X   (monthly basic mobile
                                                                                      phone data traffic)


                                                    Handheld
                                               Gaming Console              =   60 X   (monthly basic mobile
                                                                                      phone data traffic)



                                                                  Tablet   = 121 X    (monthly basic mobile
                                                                                      phone data traffic)


                                                           Mobile Phone
                                                               Projector   = 300 X    (monthly basic mobile
                                                                                      phone data traffic)



                                                                 Laptop    = 498 X    (monthly basic mobile
                                                                                      phone data traffic)


     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                Cisco Public   22
2011            2016
                                                           MBs per Month   MBs per Month

             Non-Smartphone                                     4.3            108

             M2M                                                71             266

             Smartphone                                        150            2,576

             E-Book Reader                                     750            2,880

             Tablet                                            517            4,223

             Laptop                                           2,131           6,942


© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                              Cisco Public   23
600                                      86% CAGR 2010–2015


                                                500                                             508 PB
                                                                                                per mo
                          Petabytes per Month




                                                400


                                                300


                                                200


                                                100
                                                           23 PB
                                                           per mo
                                                  0
                                                            2011    2012   2013   2014   2015   2016

     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                 Cisco Public   24
By 2016, the amount
of mobile data traffic
generated by tablets
(13 EBs) will be nearly
2X the total amount of
global mobile data
traffic generated in
2011 (7 EBs).



     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                          Cisco Public
                                                                                                  Cisco          25
12                                               78% CAGR 2011–2016
                                                            Mobile VoIP (0.3%)
                                                10          Mobile Gaming (1.1%)
                                                            Mobile File Sharing (3.3%)
                           Exabytes per Month




                                                            Mobile M2M (4.7%)
                                                 8
                                                            Mobile Web/Data (20.0%)
                                                            Mobile Video (70.5%)
                                                 6


                                                 4


                                                 2
                                                                                                                 (Figures in
                                                                                                               legend refer
                                                                                                                    to traffic
                                                 0
                                                           2011     2012      2013       2014   2015   2016         share in
                                                                                                                      2016.)
     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                          Cisco Public   26
400
                                                                                              353 MB
                                                350
                                                                                               Netflix
                                                300
                          Megabytes per Month




                                                                                                109

                                                250
                                                                                    Pandora    Pandora
                                                200                                    55         55
                                                                        Facebook   Facebook   Facebook
                                                            149 MB
                                                                           40          40         40
                                                150
                                                             Web          Web        Web        Web
                                                100           89           89         89         89

                                                 50          Email       Email      Email      Email
                                                              60          60         60         60
                                                  0
                                                           Email+Web   +Facebook   +Pandora   +Netflix


    Source: Arbitron Mobile, 2012                                                                        Cisco Public   27
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
By 2016, nearly three-
fourth’s (71%) of the
world’s mobile data
traffic will be video.
Mobile video traffic
will double every
year between 2011
and 2016.



     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  2011                                                                                            Cisco Public
                                                                                                  Cisco          28
CAGR
   (kb p s )                                               2011     2012    2013     2014     2015     2016     2011-2016

   Glo b a l
  Global Speed –
                                                             315     504      792     1,236    1,908    2,873     56%
  Avg. Mobile Connection

  Global Speed –
                                                            1,344   1,829    2,425    3,166    4,102    5,244     31%
  Avg. Smartphone Connection
   By Re g io n

  Middle East & Africa                                        89     206      434      850     1,555    2,618     97%

  Central & Eastern Europe                                   205     396      739     1,316    2,228    3,476     76%

  Latin America                                              125     227      396      673     1,082    1,627     67%

  Western Europe                                             667    1,196    1,967    2,960    4,163    5,549     53%

  Asia-Pacific                                               337     497      732     1,101    1,697    2,608     51%

  North America                                             1,138   1,712    2,485    3,531    4,923    6,785     43%

     Source: Cisco Global Internet Speed Test (GIST) results and other independent speed test findings
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                           Cisco Public   29
12

                                                              4G Traffic
                                               10
                                                              Non-4G Traffic
                                                                                                    36%
                          Exabytes per Month




                                                8


                                                6


                                                4                                                   64%


                                                2


                                                0
                                                           2011     2012       2013   2014   2015   2016

     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                                   Cisco Public   30
In 2011, a 4G
connection generated
2.4 GB/mo, 28X higher
than the 86 MB/mo for
non-4G connections.




     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  2011                                                                                            Cisco Public
                                                                                                  Cisco          31
2.0
                                                                                       42% CAGR 2011–2016


                                                     1.5                                      1.62B
                             Number of Devices (B)




                                                     1.0



                                                     0.5

                                                           280M
                                                     0.0
                                                           2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016

     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                              Cisco Public   32
4.5
                                                                                       43% CAGR 2011–2016
                                                     4.0
                                                                                              4.03B
                                                     3.5
                             Number of Devices (B)




                                                     3.0

                                                     2.5

                                                     2.0

                                                     1.5

                                                     1.0

                                                     0.5   662M

                                                     0.0
                                                           2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016

     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                              Cisco Public   33
Global Mobile Data Traffic
              By 2016, mobile data traffic will reach 10.8 EBs/month (130 EBs annually).

Global Mobile Traffic Offload
               In 2011, 11% of mobile traffic was offloaded; by 2016, 22% will be offloaded.

Global Mobile Cloud
               In 2011, cloud was 45% of mobile data traffic; will be 71% by 2016.

Global Mobile Video
               By 2016, over 70% of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video.

Global Mobile Network Speeds

              Mobile connection speeds will increase 9-fold from 2011 - 2016.

     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                          Cisco Public   34
Public VNI Content:
www.cisco.com/go/vni
•         News / press releases
•         White papers
•         FAQs
•         Free application
•         Traffic modeling tools
•         Additional resources


   Send questions to VNI team: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com

     Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  2011                                                                                            Cisco Cisco Public
                                                                                                        Confidential   35
Thank you.




© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Public   36

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Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011-2016

  • 1. Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update March 2012 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Cisco Public 1
  • 2. Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers. Global Forecast Global Mobile Data Speed Data Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 2
  • 3. More Mobile Connections Faster Mobile Speeds More Mobile Users More Mobile Video Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 3
  • 4. By 2016, global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of 130 exabytes per year. • 130X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000 130 Exabytes • 33 Billion DVDs is equal to: • 813 Quadrillion SMS text messages Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Public 4
  • 5. 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 10 10.8 EB per mo Exabytes per Month 8 6 6.9 EB per mo 4 4.2 EB per mo 2 2.4 EB 0.6 EB 1.3 EB per mo per mo per mo 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 5
  • 6. 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 10.8 10 Exabytes per Month 8 6.9 6 6.3 4 2 0.6 0.6 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 6
  • 7. 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 Business 10 Consumer 23.1% Exabytes per Month 8 6 76.9% 4 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 7
  • 8. * 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 Middle East and Africa (MEA) 5.88% 10 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) 6.54% Latin America (LATAM) 6.83% Exabytes per Month 8 North America (NA) 18.18% Western Europe (WE) Asia Pacific (APAC) 6 22.56% 4 40.01% 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * Includes Japan Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 8
  • 9. In 2011, global mobile data traffic more than doubled (2.3X growth) for the fourth year in a row, despite economic uncertainty, continued traffic offload, and the broader adoption of tiered pricing. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Public Cisco 9
  • 10. 100% 90% 80% 45% 54% 70% 61% 66% 69% 71% 60% 50% 40% 30% 55% 46% 20% 39% 34% 31% 29% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic Mobile Cloud Traffic © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 10
  • 11. 16 Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices 14 Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices 12 22% Exabytes per Month 10 8 6 78% 4 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 11
  • 12. 45 40 Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices 16% Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices 35 Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic from All Portable Devices 4% Exabytes per Month 30 25 20 80% 15 10 5 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 12
  • 13. By 2016, 60 percent of mobile users (3 billion people) will belong to the Gigabyte Club, generating more than one gigabyte of mobile data traffic per month. In 2011, 0.5 percent of mobile users belonged to the Gigabyte Club. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Public Cisco 13
  • 14. 2011 2016 92 MB 1.2 GB Traffic/month Traffic/month 10 Video Clips 3 Video Clips 5 Videos 5 Audio tracks 50 Audio tracks 1 Video call 3 Video calls 5 App Downloads 10 App Downloads © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 14
  • 15. 60% Percentage of top 1 percent 50% Top 1 percent to total MB/mo 40% 30% 52% 20% 24% 10% 0% Month 1 Month 21 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 15
  • 16. 14 1.3 Top 20% 12 (102% Y/Y) 2.0 Gigabytes per Month 10 Top 10% 0.6 3.0 (81% Y/Y) 8 1.1 6 1.8 Top 5% (64% Y/Y) 4 6.9 5.0 Top 1% 2 (37% Y/Y) 0 2010 2011 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 16
  • 17. 45% 40% Month 10 35% Month 21 Percentage of Users 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Greater than Greater than Greater than Greater than Greater than 5 GB 2 GB 200 MB 20 MB 1 MB Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 17
  • 18. 3.0 2.5 Month 21 Month 20 Gigabytes per Month Month 19 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Android Apple Windows Blackberry Proprietary Symbian Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 18
  • 19. By 2016, there will be 1.4 mobile connections (devices and M2M) for every member of the world’s population. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 19
  • 20. 100% 8% 12% 90% 15% 19% 22% 25% 80% 70% 60% 50% 92% 88% 40% 85% 81% 78% 75% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 One Mobile Device 2 or More Mobile Devices © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 20
  • 21. 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 Other Portable Devices (2.2%) M2M (4.7%) 10 Home Gateways (4.8%) Exabytes per Month Non-Smartphones (5.7%) 8 Tablets (10.0%) Laptops and Netbooks (24.2%) 6 Smartphones (48.3%) 4 2 (Figures in legend refer to traffic 0 share in 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016.) Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 21
  • 22. Smartphone = 35 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Handheld Gaming Console = 60 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Tablet = 121 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Mobile Phone Projector = 300 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Laptop = 498 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 22
  • 23. 2011 2016 MBs per Month MBs per Month Non-Smartphone 4.3 108 M2M 71 266 Smartphone 150 2,576 E-Book Reader 750 2,880 Tablet 517 4,223 Laptop 2,131 6,942 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 23
  • 24. 600 86% CAGR 2010–2015 500 508 PB per mo Petabytes per Month 400 300 200 100 23 PB per mo 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 24
  • 25. By 2016, the amount of mobile data traffic generated by tablets (13 EBs) will be nearly 2X the total amount of global mobile data traffic generated in 2011 (7 EBs). Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Cisco 25
  • 26. 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 Mobile VoIP (0.3%) 10 Mobile Gaming (1.1%) Mobile File Sharing (3.3%) Exabytes per Month Mobile M2M (4.7%) 8 Mobile Web/Data (20.0%) Mobile Video (70.5%) 6 4 2 (Figures in legend refer to traffic 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 share in 2016.) Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 26
  • 27. 400 353 MB 350 Netflix 300 Megabytes per Month 109 250 Pandora Pandora 200 55 55 Facebook Facebook Facebook 149 MB 40 40 40 150 Web Web Web Web 100 89 89 89 89 50 Email Email Email Email 60 60 60 60 0 Email+Web +Facebook +Pandora +Netflix Source: Arbitron Mobile, 2012 Cisco Public 27 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  • 28. By 2016, nearly three- fourth’s (71%) of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video. Mobile video traffic will double every year between 2011 and 2016. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Public Cisco 28
  • 29. CAGR (kb p s ) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011-2016 Glo b a l Global Speed – 315 504 792 1,236 1,908 2,873 56% Avg. Mobile Connection Global Speed – 1,344 1,829 2,425 3,166 4,102 5,244 31% Avg. Smartphone Connection By Re g io n Middle East & Africa 89 206 434 850 1,555 2,618 97% Central & Eastern Europe 205 396 739 1,316 2,228 3,476 76% Latin America 125 227 396 673 1,082 1,627 67% Western Europe 667 1,196 1,967 2,960 4,163 5,549 53% Asia-Pacific 337 497 732 1,101 1,697 2,608 51% North America 1,138 1,712 2,485 3,531 4,923 6,785 43% Source: Cisco Global Internet Speed Test (GIST) results and other independent speed test findings © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 29
  • 30. 12 4G Traffic 10 Non-4G Traffic 36% Exabytes per Month 8 6 4 64% 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 30
  • 31. In 2011, a 4G connection generated 2.4 GB/mo, 28X higher than the 86 MB/mo for non-4G connections. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Public Cisco 31
  • 32. 2.0 42% CAGR 2011–2016 1.5 1.62B Number of Devices (B) 1.0 0.5 280M 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 32
  • 33. 4.5 43% CAGR 2011–2016 4.0 4.03B 3.5 Number of Devices (B) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 662M 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 33
  • 34. Global Mobile Data Traffic By 2016, mobile data traffic will reach 10.8 EBs/month (130 EBs annually). Global Mobile Traffic Offload In 2011, 11% of mobile traffic was offloaded; by 2016, 22% will be offloaded. Global Mobile Cloud In 2011, cloud was 45% of mobile data traffic; will be 71% by 2016. Global Mobile Video By 2016, over 70% of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video. Global Mobile Network Speeds Mobile connection speeds will increase 9-fold from 2011 - 2016. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 34
  • 35. Public VNI Content: www.cisco.com/go/vni • News / press releases • White papers • FAQs • Free application • Traffic modeling tools • Additional resources Send questions to VNI team: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015 © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Cisco Public Confidential 35
  • 36. Thank you. © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 36