1. The document discusses collecting economic data in post-conflict Bougainville to measure recovery, which is difficult due to a lack of prior data. 2. A survey was conducted with 181 households to collect information on income, investments, access to basic services, and demographics. 3. Preliminary findings show about half the urban population is under 20, one-third of children 6-10 are not in school, per capita income is estimated at $783 in 1983 prices, and ex-combatants have become entrepreneurs promoting peace.

1. Data collection in difficult environments:
measuring economic recovery in post-
conflict Bougainville
Satish Chand
UNSW@ADFA

2. Three messages
1. Data for policymaking absent in most post-
conflict situations
2. This deficiency undermines capacity to ‘prevent,
prepare for, and respond to disasters’ (APCOE
mission)
3. The data deficiency can be addressed.

3. Papua New Guinea – Where?

4. 2500
Per Capita Income by Province in Papua New Guinea (1983)
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Central
Gulf
EHP
ENB
Enga
Oro
Madang
NIP
NCD
Manus
WNB
Morobe
NSP
Milne Bay
WHP
SHP
West Sepik
Chimbu
East Sepik
Western
Papua Highlands Momase Islands Region

5. Economic impact of the conflict
Toniva, Kieta
Panguna, in 1989, accounted for:
• 45 percent of PNG’s export income;
• 17 percent of internally generated govt. revenues; and,
• 12 percent of GDP.
At the height of conflict, one third (approx. 70K) of population were in care centres.

6. Evidence of a rebound in economic activity: By how much?
Rebound in the economy! How much?
26/02/2011

7. Gold smelting
The Gold Smelter The product
Approx. 2Kg smelted per week @ $57/gram = $114,000.

8. Green gold!

9. Access to basic services
Private versus public provision of basic services

10. The Research Team: Well Trained Locals

11. Survey locations

12. Survey Sites: Arawa
Pre-crisis # houses: 1850
Post-crisis (02/2011) #: 740
23/02/2011

13. Data collected on
• Income – how much and source?
• Investments – age and types of housing?
• Own or rent house?
• Access to basic services
• Education/Health?
• Water
• Telephone
• Electricity
• Toilets
• TV

14. Interview in progress
21/02/2011

16. Table 1: Summary statistics
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
Age of household head 181 45 11 20 81
Male household head 181 58% 0.49 0 1
Moved house due to conflict 179 30% 0.46 0 1
Number of people per house 181 5.70 3.03 1 16
Number of males per house 180 2.85 1.76 0 9
Number of dependents per house 179 1.78 1.70 0 8
Number in school per house 179 1.89 1.84 0 8
Proportion owning house 181 56% 0.50 0 1
Year house built 112 1996 13.77 1960 2011
Weekly household income 180 416 317 <100 >1000

17. Table 2: Population distribution by age
Age group Females Males percent Cum %
1yr -5yrs 50 53 10.2% 10.2%
6yrs - 10yrs 53 58 10.9% 21.1%
11yrs - 15 yrs 55 74 12.7% 33.8%
16yrs - 20yrs 81 59 13.8% 47.6%
21yrs-25yrs 61 55 11.4% 59.1%
26yrs - 30yrs 42 42 8.3% 67.4%
31yrs - 35 yrs 41 38 7.8% 75.1%
36yrs - 40yrs 26 23 4.8% 80.0%
41yrs - 45yrs 24 21 4.4% 84.4%
46yrs - 50yrs 30 26 5.5% 89.9%
51yrs+ 49 53 10.1% 100.0%
Calculated from a total population of 1,014 individuals made up of 502 males and 512 females from the 181 households surveyed.
NSO Census 2000, table 1.6 North Solomons Urban Population less than 15 years = 34.8 percent (rural = 43.8%).

18. Table 3: Zero years of schooling
Number of Number of Proportion w/o
Birth year Females Males schooling
1982 or earlier 6 0 2%
Between 1983 and1991 2 2 2%
Between 1992 and 2005 12 33 13%
Notes: 35 percent of those between 6 and 10 years of age as of 2011 were not in school => displacement of
young by older children in primary schools.
Source: Calculated from survey of 181 households comprising 911 individuals born in
or before 2005 from Arawa, Buka, Buin and Selau (data collected in February 2011).

19. Figure 2: Highest schooling for 20+ yr population
150
117
103
100
Frequency
77
58
50
25 24 22
16 16 16 14
11 10 10
8
5
2 1 1 1 1
0
0 5 10 15 20
Yschool
Pr(6 year-old completing Year 12) = 11 percent!

20. Investments: Three types of houses!
Material = 1 Material = 3

21. Construction activity over time-
4
3
Buka & Selau
Frequency
2
1
0
1980 1990 2000 2010
Ybuilt

22. Preliminary findings
1. Approx half of urban population < 20yrs of age.
2. One in three urban children of 6~10yrs not in school
3. Per capita income for urban Bougainville = K3,863 at
2010 prices (or K783 at 1983 prices).
4. Large regional disparities in rates of and prospects
for economic growth
5. Ex-combatants turned entrepreneurs in post-
conflict Bougainville – a growing constituency for
peace.

23. Fun of fieldwork in difficult environments

24. Conclusions
1. Data can be collected in difficult environments.
2. Involvement of local authorities crucial for
success.
3. Costs of data collection are high - sampling and
a staggered approach to surveys.
4. Honesty/transparency/publicity helps with
fieldwork.
5. Local graduate students are invaluable for all of
the above!