Nomura Oil Weekly 12.16.10

1. Oil & Gas/Chemicals | G L O B A L
OI L M AR K E T UP D AT E : 16 DE CEM BE R, 201 0
NOMURA INTERNATIONAL (HK) LIMITED
Michael Lo, CFA +852 2252 6225 michael.lo@nomura.com
Cheng Khoo +852 2252 6180 cheng.khoo@nomura.com RUNNING
THEME
This week’s highlights
As 2010 comes to a close, oil prices stand at an average US$79/bbl YTD and global
oil demand growth estimates for 2010 by IEA, EIA and OPEC at an average W E E K L Y
2.0mmbbl/d y-y. For 2011, the agencies estimate an average oil demand growth of
1.3mmbbl/d y-y and non-OPEC supply growth of 0.3mmbbl/d y-y. We continue to see
fundamentals tightening, creating an environment of rising oil prices next year.
Oil Market Update Analysts
Michael Lo, CFA
Happy holidays! We will be back next year. Merry Christmas & Happy New Year!
+852 2252 6225
 The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its non-OPEC supply growth michael.lo@nomura.com
and OPEC NGL supply growth estimates for 2011 by 0.2mmbbl/d each, in its
Cheng Khoo
latest Oil Market Report released this week. This is in line with our analysis
+852 2252 6180
from last week (See: Oil Market Update - ‘supply-side risks,’ dated 9 December
cheng.khoo@nomura.com
2010), where we saw a downward bias to IEA’s existing non-OPEC supply
estimates for 2011. The agency now estimates non-OPEC supply to grow in Saurabh Bharat
2011 by 0.6mmbbl/d y-y to 53.4mmbbl/d and OPEC NGL supply to grow by +91 22 3053 2835
0.5mmbbl/d y-y to 5.8mmbbl/d. On the demand side, the IEA has raised its saurabh.bharat@nomura.com
global oil demand growth estimates for 2010 and 2011 by 0.1mmbbl/d each
from last month. The agency now expects global oil demand to grow by Sanat Satyan
+91 22 6723 4076
2.4mmbbl/d y-y in 2010 to 87.4mmbbl/d and further by 1.3mmbbl/d y-y in 2011
sanat.satyan@nomura.com
to 88.8mmbbl/d. This revision was on stronger data from OECD North America
and non-OECD Asia in 2010. On its medium-term projections, the IEA has
revised its baseline estimates for supply and demand sharply upwards.
However, it continues to show a tightening of fundamentals in its base case,
with the OPEC spare capacity now estimated to tighten to 3.6mmbbl/d by 2015.
 As refiners boost output in the US, crude stocks fell by 9.9mmbbl w-w in the
week ending 10 December, as per Energy Information Administration’s (EIA)
weekly inventories report. This draw was significantly higher than the estimated
(Bloomberg Consensus) 2.5mmbbl draw pushing WTI crude price higher to
US$88.6/bbl yesterday. Gasoline stocks rose by 0.8mmbbl w-w to 215mmbbl
on 1.2% w-w rise in imports. Also, distillate stocks rose by 1.1mmbbl w-w to
161mmbbl/d, on 2.7% w-w rise in imports. However, gasoline and distillate
demand rose by 1.9% and 2.9% w-w, respectively, pushing total product
demand higher by 1.0% w-w to 20.2mmbbl/d. Capacity utilisation at domestic
refineries now stands at 88% in the US.
 Open interest for WTI futures fell by 1.9% w-w in the week ending 10
December. Also, Brent futures open interest fell by 1.5% w-w. Open interest for
WTI and Brent now stands at 1.36mn and 0.85mn, respectively. WTI open
interest is now 3.5% lower than the November average of 1.41mn, whereas
Brent open interest is now 0.3% lower than the November average of 0.86mn.
The aggregate open interest for WTI and Brent futures is now at 2.21mn, down
1.7% w-w.
Any authors named on this report are research analysts unless otherwise indicated.
See the important disclosures and analyst certifications on pages 17 to 20.
Nomura 1 16 December 2010

2. Oil & Gas/Chemicals | Global Michael Lo, CFA / Cheng Khoo
Exhibit 1. Price summary
Commodity Units Price YTD Average Daily Change %age Weekly Change %age Yearly Change %age YTD Change %age
Crude Oil and Products 15-Dec-10
WTI $/bbl 88.62 79.0 0.34 0.4% 0.25 0.3% 16.0 22.0% 7.1 8.7%
WTI, 48-month $/bbl 90.03 87.8 0.70 0.8% 1.15 1.3% 3.5 4.1% -1.8 -2.0%
Brent $/bbl 91.38 79.1 0.46 0.5% 0.47 0.5% 19.5 27.1% 11.3 14.1%
Brent, 48-month $/bbl 92.03 88.7 0.72 0.8% 0.79 0.9% 4.8 5.5% 0.0 0.0%
Oman $/bbl 89.35 77.9 0.03 0.5% 0.92 1.0% 16.0 21.9% 10.2 12.8%
Dubai $/bbl 89.00 77.6 -0.07 -0.1% 0.82 0.9% 10.6 13.5% 10.9 13.9%
OPEC Basket $/bbl 88.21 76.8 0.25 0.3% 0.34 0.4% 17.4 24.5% 10.0 12.8%
RBOB c/g 230.92 211.3 1.28 0.6% -3.13 -1.3% 46.4 25.2% 20.9 9.9%
Heating Oil c/g 248.35 213.1 1.56 0.6% 1.67 0.7% 58.0 30.5% 29.6 13.5%
ICE Gasoil $/ton 768.25 669.5 3.00 0.4% 11.00 1.5% 180.0 30.6% 114.5 17.5%
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 2. IEA estimates for 2010 Exhibit 3. IEA estimates for 2011
(y-y (y-y (y-y (y-y
mb/d) mb/d) mb/d) mb/d)
World oil demand grow th (LHS) 2.0 World oil demand grow th (LHS) 2.0
2.8 2.0
Non-OPEC supply grow th (RHS) Non-OPEC supply grow th (RHS)
2.4
1.6 1.6 1.6
2.0
1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2
1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8
0.8
0.4 0.4 0.4
0.4
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jul-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-10
Aug-09
Apr-10
Aug-10
Aug-10
Source: IEA, Nomura research Source: IEA, Nomura research
 In its latest Oil Market Report released this week, the OPEC has raised its global oil
demand growth estimate for 2010 by 0.2mmbbl/d to 1.5mmbbl/d. For 2011, the oil
producer group continues to estimate oil demand growth of 1.2mmbbl/d y-y. On
non-OPEC supply growth, the OPEC has retained its last month’s estimate of
1.1mmbbl/d for 2010 but raised its estimate by 0.1mmbbl/d to 0.4mmbbl/d for 2011.
In its report, OPEC notes that given the existing level of excess inventories, ample
spare capacity and idle refinery capacity, the market should have a “robust
cushion” against any sudden surge in demand or disruption in supply. The report
also pointed out that with forecasts from agencies for 2011 varying in a wide range
(both for global oil demand growth and non-OPEC supply growth) it will be
challenging to assess the real needs of the market.
Exhibit 4. OPEC estimates for 2010 Exhibit 5. OPEC estimates for 2011
(y-y (y-y (y-y (y-y
mb/d) mb/d) mb/d) mb/d)
World oil demand grow th (LHS) 2.0 2.0
2.0 2.0 World oil demand grow th (LHS)
Non-OPEC supply grow th (RHS)
Non-OPEC supply grow th (RHS)
1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jul-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-10
Aug-09
Apr-10
Aug-10
Aug-10
Source: OPEC, Nomura research Source: OPEC, Nomura research
Nomura 2 16 December 2010

3. Oil & Gas/Chemicals | Global Michael Lo, CFA / Cheng Khoo
Weekly events summary
1. CFTC proposes swap exemptions
‘Bona fide hedging’ may be exempted from clearing requirements.
2. OPEC leaves its quota unchanged
OPEC members see oil price in the range US$75-90/bbl as comfortable.
Key oil market events during the week
1. CFTC proposes swap exemptions: The US Commodity Futures Trading
Commission (CFTC) proposed exemptions to centrally clearing requirements for
derivatives this week, granting exemption to firms in a trade, as long as one of the
parties is a non-financial entity. In others words, the exemption stands for those
who carry out ‘bona fide hedging’. Also, trading firms which qualify for the hedging
exemption must show how they will mitigate counterparty risk by presenting credit
support agreements, margin, third-party guarantee or assets. Swaps used for
speculating, investing or trading (which are yet to be defined) will not qualify for
this exemption. According to Chairman Gary Gensler, the CFTC will decide which
contracts fall into the swap category by January 2011. On 16 December 2010, the
CFTC will also consider a proposal to address position limits for energy futures
and options for the spot month. Also, limits on a company’s position for all months
will be looked into. According to Bloomberg, the commission has been facing
lobbying pressures from both ‘inside and outside the agency’ for putting off the
data of implementation of the position limits. (Source: Bloomberg)
Exhibit 6. Notional value of commodity index Exhibit 7. Futures equivalent contracts of commodity
investments index investments
250 (US$bn) US Markets Non-US Markets 3.0 (mn) WTI Crude Oil Agricultural Commodities
200 2.5
2.0
150
1.5
100
1.0
50
0.5
0 0.0
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
Jul-10
Oct-10
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Sep-10
Sep-10
Aug-10
Aug-10
Source: CFTC, Nomura research Source: CFTC, Nomura research
2. OPEC leaves its quota unchanged: In its 158th (extraordinary) meeting in Quito,
Ecuador on 11 December, OPEC kept its output quota unchanged at
24.84mmbbl/d. As has been widely expected, OPEC members indicated that they
were comfortable with the current oil price level and there was no need to increase
production. In fact, members like Ecuador indicated that US$120/bbl is an
‘adequate’ price for oil. Saudi Arabia said it still favoured oil price in the range of
US$70-80/bbl but will not increase production till oil prices cross US$100/bbl.
Venezuela added that it would like see a ‘fair’ oil price of US$100/bbl. Also,
Kuwaiti oil minister Sheikh Ahmad indicated that the group was comfortable in the
range of US$75-90/bbl till the end of the year, but ‘anything is possible’ if prices go
above US$100/bbl in 2011. (Source: Thomson Reuters)
Nomura 3 16 December 2010

4. Oil & Gas/Chemicals | Global Michael Lo, CFA / Cheng Khoo
Crude oil
Exhibit 8. Crude oil runs
Global Runs OECD
78 mmb/d 42 mmb/d
76 40
74 38
72 36
70 34
68 32
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior3 Year Range Prior 3 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior3 Year Range Prior 3 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: IEA Source: IEA
United States OECD Europe
17 mmb/d 15 mmb/d
16
14
15
14 13
13
12
12
11 11
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: DOE Source: IEA
China India
9.0 mmb/d 3.8 mmb/d
8.0 3.4
7.0 3.0
6.0 2.6
5.0 2.2
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Thomson Reuters * excludes new RPL refinery
Korea Japan
3.0 mmb/d 5.0 mmb/d
4.5
2.5
4.0
3.5
2.0
3.0
1.5 2.5
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: Petronet Source: Petroleum Association of Japan
Nomura 4 16 December 2010

5. Oil & Gas/Chemicals | Global Michael Lo, CFA / Cheng Khoo
Exhibit 9. OECD inventories
Total OECD Stocks OECD Oil Product Stocks
4,400 mmb 1,800 mmb
4,300
1,700
4,200
1,600
4,100
4,000 1,500
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior4 Year Range Prior 4 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior4 Year Range Prior 4 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: IEA * includes both crude and products Source: IEA
Exhibit 10. Crude inventories
OECD United States
2,400 mmb 400 mmb
2,300 350
2,200
300
2,100
J F M A M J J A S O N D 250
Prior4 Year Range Prior 4 Year Average 2009 2010 J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: IEA Source: DOE
OECD Europe China
580 mmb 230 mmb
220
540
210
200
500
190
460
J F M A M J J A S O N D 180
Prior4 Year Range Prior 4 Year Average 2009 2010 J F M A M J J A S O N D
2010
Source: IEA Source: Xinhua News Agency, Thomson Reuters * commercial
Korea Japan
40 mmb 140 mmb
130
30
120
20 110
100
10
90
0 80
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: Petronet Source: Petroleum Association of Japan
Nomura 5 16 December 2010

6. Oil & Gas/Chemicals | Global Michael Lo, CFA / Cheng Khoo
Exhibit 11. OECD imports
Total OECD Imports Total OECD Oil Product Imports
36 mmb/d 10 mmb/d
9
34
8
32
7
30
6
28 5
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: IEA Source: IEA
Exhibit 12. Crude oil imports
OECD United States
28 mmb/d 12 mmb/d
11
26
10
24
9
22
8
20 7
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: IEA Source: DOE
OECD Europe China
11 mmb/d 6.0 mmb/d
5.0
10
4.0
3.0
9
2.0
1.0
8
J F M A M J J A S O N D
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: IEA Source: Thomson Reuters
Korea Japan
3.5 mmb/d 5.5 mmb/d
5.0
3.0
4.5
2.5
4.0
2.0
3.5
1.5 3.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 4 Year Range Prior 4 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: Petronet Source: METI, Thomson Reuters
Nomura 6 16 December 2010

7. Oil & Gas/Chemicals | Global Michael Lo, CFA / Cheng Khoo
Total products
Exhibit 13. Total product demand
OECD United States
53 mmb/d 23 mmb/d
22
51
21
49
20
47
19
45
18
43 17
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: IEA Source: DOE
OECD Europe India
17 mmb/d 15 mn Tonnes
13
16
11
15
9
14
7
13 5
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: IEA Source: Thomson Reuters
Korea Japan
2.7 mmb/d 6 mmb/d
2.5
5
2.3
2.1 4
1.9
3
1.7
1.5 2
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 4 Year Range Prior 4 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: Petronet Source: METI, Thomson Reuters
Nomura 7 16 December 2010

8. Oil & Gas/Chemicals | Global Michael Lo, CFA / Cheng Khoo
Gasoline
Exhibit 14. Gasoline demand
OECD United States
17 mmb/d 10.0 mmb/d
16 9.5
15 9.0
14 8.5
13 8.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: IEA Source: DOE
OECD Europe China
3.2 mmb/d 1.9 mmb/d
3.0
1.7
2.8
1.5
2.6
2.4 1.3
2.2
1.1
2.0
1.8 0.9
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: IEA Source: Thomson Reuters *Implied Demand
Korea Japan
0.22 mmb/d 1.4 mmb/d
0.20
1.2
0.18
0.16
1.0
0.14
0.12 0.8
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 4 Year Range Prior 4 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: Petronet Source: METI, Thomson Reuters
India
0.40 mmb/d
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: Thomson Reuters
Nomura 8 16 December 2010

9. Oil & Gas/Chemicals | Global Michael Lo, CFA / Cheng Khoo
Exhibit 15. Gasoline inventories
OECD United States
450 mmb 250 mmb
420
230
390
210
360
190
330
300 170
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior3 Year Range Prior 3 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: IEA *Industrial stocks Source: DOE
OECD Europe China
130 mmb 65 mmb
60
120
55
110
50
100
45
90 40
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior4 Year Range Prior 4 Year Average 2009 2010 2010
Source: IEA * Industrial stocks Source: China OGP, Xinhua News Agency * Commercial
Korea Japan
5.0 mmb 17 mmb
16
15
4.0
14
13
3.0
12
11
2.0 10
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: Petronet Source: Petroleum Association of Japan
Singapore
13 mmb
11
9
7
5
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: Thomson Reuters
Nomura 9 16 December 2010

10. Oil & Gas/Chemicals | Global Michael Lo, CFA / Cheng Khoo
Distillates
Exhibit 16. Distillate demand
OECD United States
16 mmb/d 5.0 mmb/d
4.5
14
4.0
3.5
12
3.0
10 2.5
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: IEA Source: DOE
OECD Europe China
7.0 mmb/d 3.6 mmb/d
6.6 3.2
6.2
2.8
5.8
2.4
5.4
2.0
5.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D 1.6
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: IEA
Source: Thomson Reuters *Implied Demand
Korea Japan
0.50 mmb/d 0.8 mmb/d
0.7
0.40
0.6
0.30
0.5
0.20 0.4
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 4 Year Range Prior 4 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: Petronet Source: METI, Thomson Reuters
India
1.4 mmb/d
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: Thomson Reuters
Nomura 10 16 December 2010

11. Oil & Gas/Chemicals | Global Michael Lo, CFA / Cheng Khoo
Exhibit 17. Distillate inventories
OECD United States
700 mmb 190 mmb
170
600
150
130
500
110
400 90
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior4 Year Range Prior 4 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: IEA *Industrial stocks Source: DOE
OECD Europe China
320 mmb 100 mmb
290 80
260 60
230 40
200 20
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior4 Year Range Prior 4 Year Average 2009 2010 2010
Source: IEA *Industrial stocks Source: China OGP, Xinhua News Agency * Commercial
Korea Japan
18 mmb 17 mmb
15
15
13
12
11
9
9
6 7
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: Petronet Source: Petroleum Association of Japan
Singapore
18 mmb
14
10
6
2
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: Thomson Reuters
Nomura 11 16 December 2010

12. Oil & Gas/Chemicals | Global Michael Lo, CFA / Cheng Khoo
Exhibit 18. Trading summary
ICE Brent Futures Aggregate Open Interest Nymex WTI Futures Aggregate Open Interest
contracts contracts
1,000,000 1,500,000
900,000 1,400,000
800,000
1,300,000
700,000
1,200,000
600,000
500,000 1,100,000
400,000 1,000,000
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-08
May-09
May-10
Mar-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Nov-10
Mar-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Nov-10
Jan-08
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Jan-08
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
ICE Brent: Price versus Open Interest NYMEX WTI: Price versus Open Interest
$/bbl $/bbl
100
100
90 90
80 80
70 70
60 60
-6M 0M 6M 12M 18M 24M 30M 36M 42M 48M -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Current Previous Week Previous Year Current Previous W eek Previous Year
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg Source: CFTC, Bloomberg
Exhibit 19. OPEC crude oil statistics
OPEC Crude - Production, Capacity & Quota OPEC Spare Capacity - October 2010
mb/d 4.8 mb/d
34.0 3.96
4.0
31.0 3.2
2.4
28.0
1.6
25.0
0.8 0.30 0.37 0.32
0.11 0.20 0.19 0.09 0.20 0.24 0.11 0.01
22.0 0.0
Libya
Kuwait
Qatar
Ecuador
Angola
Algeria
Nigeria
U.A.E
Venezuela
Iran
Arabia
Iraq
Saudi
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
OPEC Crude Production Capacity OPEC Crude Production OPEC Quota
Source: IEA Source: IEA, Nomura Research
Exhibit 20. International rotary rig count
World Oil Rig Count US Oil Rig Count
1,900 800
50% 1,800
700
1,700
600
1,600
30%
500
1,500
1,400 400
10%
1,300
300
1,200
200
-10%
1,100
100
1,000
-30% 900 0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
2010 Y-o-Y %age 2009 Y-o-Y %age 2007 2008 2009 2010 Prior 5 Year Range Prior 5 Year Average 2009 2010
Source: Baker Hughes, Nomura Research Source: Baker Hughes, Nomura Research
Nomura 12 16 December 2010

13. Oil & Gas/Chemicals | Global Michael Lo, CFA / Cheng Khoo
Exhibit 21. US Department of Energy’s weekly summary table
Data Product 12/10/2010 12/3/2010 W-o-W W-o-W % 12/11/2009 Y-o-Y Y-o-Y % 5 YR AVG ∆ from 5YR AVG % from 5YR AVG
Stocks Crude Oil 346 356 (9.9) -2.8% 332 13.6 4.1% 320 25.84 8.1%
(mmb) Motor Gasoline 215 214 0.8 0.4% 217 -2.4 -1.1% 206 8.43 4.1%
Distillate 161 160 1.1 0.7% 164 -3.1 -1.9% 138 23.13 16.7%
Diesel (>15 to 500 ppm) 11 11 0.5 5.0% 20 -8.7 -43.0% 32 (20.16) -63.7%
Diesel (<15 ppm) 100 97 2.8 2.9% 96 4.1 4.3% 57 42.68 74.4%
Heating Oil (>500 ppm) 50 52 (2.3) -4.4% 48 1.5 3.0% 49 0.64 1.3%
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel 44 46 (2.0) -4.3% 41 2.8 6.7% 40 3.68 9.2%
Residual Fuel Oil 40 40 (0.4) -0.9% 36 3.3 9.0% 39 0.44 1.1%
Crude Oil Runs (kbd) 14974 14903 71 0.5% 13804 1170 8.5% 14872 102 0.7%
Capacity Utilization (%) 88.0 87.5 0.5 80.0 8.1 86.4 1.6
Weekly Crude Oil 7690 9053 (1363) -15.1% 7772 (82) -1.1% 9177 (1487) -16.2%
Imports Motor Gasoline 876 866 10 1.2% 967 (91) -9.4% 995 (119) -12.0%
(kbd) Distillate 263 256 7 2.7% 229 34 14.8% 324 (61) -18.8%
Diesel (>15 to 500 ppm) 23 16 7 17 6 56 (33) -58.9%
Diesel (<15 ppm) 183 167 16 9.6% 131 52 39.7% 124 59 47.3%
Heating Oil (>500 ppm) 57 73 (16) -21.9% 81 (24) -29.6% 144 (87) -60.3%
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel 29 130 (101) -77.7% 57 (28) -49.1% 160 (131) -81.9%
Residual Fuel Oil 328 437 (109) -24.9% 330 (2) -0.6% 416 (88) -21.1%
Demand Motor Gasoline 9.3 9.2 0.2 1.9% 9.0 0.4 4.3% 9.2 0.1 1.2%
(mbd) Distillate 3.8 3.7 0.1 2.9% 3.8 (0.0) -0.6% 4.2 (0.5) -10.9%
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel 1.6 1.4 0.3 21.0% 1.7 (0.0) -1.4% 1.6 0.0 1.9%
Residual Fuel Oil 0.5 0.7 (0.2) -28.4% 0.4 0.1 12.6% 0.7 (0.2) -32.6%
Total Products 20.2 20.0 0.2 1.0% 19.6 0.6 3.2% 20.7 (0.5) -2.3%
Source: Energy Information Administration, Nomura Research
Exhibit 22. Weather update and forecast
Average Temperature 6-10 Days Forecast
Code Colour Shading Forecast
A Orange-Red Above Normal
B Blue Below Normal
N White Neutral
* * Numbers indicate %age probability above/below normal
Source: National Weather Service, United States
Nomura 13 16 December 2010