SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  11
Télécharger pour lire hors ligne
UK National Voice - Q1 2011



Office Market Conditions
Across the UK
Building on improved leasing activity over the second half of
2010, 2011 has seen continued interest from occupiers, although
this has not yet translated into deals. Q1 take-up activity was
down 9% compared with the equivalent period last year,
although performance remains mixed across the UK.


Supply constraints resulted in further polarisation between Grade
A and Grade B space. Rents continue to be heavily supported
by incentives. While we expect to see further prime rental
growth averaging around 1.1% for 2011, the Grade B market
carries significantly more downside risk.


Investment volumes were relatively weak this quarter as buyers
continued to focus on Central London and the South East
markets. Increased competition for the best space as well as
strengthening market fundamentals may drive increased investor
activity outside of London this year.
2 On Point • UK National Voice • Q1 2011




UK Summary


                                                                                                      Change*                       12 Month
  Summary Statistics                                                Q1 11
                                                                                            Q-o-Q               Y-o-Y                Outlook
  Take-up (000s sq ft)                                               906                   -30.6 %              -8.7 %

  Supply (000s sq ft)                                              23,067                    2.8 %              -3.1 %

  Vacancy Rate (%)                                                 12.6 %                    0 bps              -20 bps

  Prime Rent (£ psf)                                               £27.08                    0.8 %              1.7 %

  U/C (000s sq ft)                                                  488.6                    8.3 %              -20.7%

  Investment Vol. (£m)                                             £185.5                   27.3 %              -70.8 %
* % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated using local currency




UK Office Rental Clock




                                                          Rental Growth                             Rents
                     London City                            Slowing                                 Falling

            London West End


                                                          Rental Growth                          Rents
                                                           Accelerating                      Bottoming Out



                                                                                                                          Edinburgh, Leeds
                                         West London
                                Manchester
                                                                                                                          Birmingham,
                                                                                                                          Glasgow, Thames Valley


For information on the Central London market, please see the Jones Lang LaSalle Central London Market Report
On Point • UK National Voice Q1 2011 3




National Overview
2011 witnessed continued interest from occupiers, however this             new speculative commencements due this year outside of these two
failed to translate into a substantial amount of take-up activity. The     locations. While we expect developers to begin positioning
gradual erosion of Grade A supply continued, and with very little in       themselves strategically to take advantage of the impending
the development pipeline we expect a return to preletting activity in      shortage of Grade A supply, the lack of speculative development
some markets. Investment volumes were relatively weak this quarter         funding will mean that the pipeline will remain severely limited. As
as buyers continued to focus on Central London and the South East.         Grade A supply reduces further we therefore expect to see a return
However, increased competition and strengthening market                    to preletting activity.
fundamentals for prime space should drive increased investor
activity outside of London this year.                                      Q1 witnessed further polarisation between Grade A and Grade B
                                                                           space. Prime rents increased in Birmingham, Glasgow and the
Continued interest from occupiers, but conversion to deals                 Western Corridor, while rents in the remaining regional centres were
remains slow                                                               stable. Prime rents continue to be supported by significant
UK office take-up reached around 906,000 sq ft over the first quarter      incentives, with up to 30 months rent free achievable on a 10 year
of 2011, down 9% compared with the equivalent period last year             term in most markets. We expect to see further prime rental growth
and down 36% compared with the five year quarterly average.                averaging at around 1.1% for 2011, driven by the anticipated
Performance was down year-on-year in all markets with the                  shortage of Grade A space. In contrast the Grade B market carries
exception of the Thames Valley and Glasgow where take-up                   significantly more downside risk with landlords continuing to
increased, but remained below their respective five year averages.         compete for occupiers. While we have not yet seen any significant
In the Thames valley take-up increased from a very low base and            release of Grade B space onto the market, we do expect the level of
was boosted by several large deals of more than 25,000 sq ft.              Grade B supply to remain inflated.
There was no single sector driving activity in Q1. In line with the
previous quarter, activity was driven by a broad range of companies,       Strengthening market fundamentals likely to encourage
particularly from within the Business services sector, including           investment activity outside of London
recruitment consultants, IT companies and Media firms.                     Investment activity remained relatively subdued in the UK regional
                                                                           markets as most investors have continued to seek assets in London
Although occupier demand will continue to be dominated by                  and the South East. Prime yields have been stable at 6.00% in the
structural events this year, we anticipate a growing number of             Scottish and regional markets and at 6.50% in the South East.
companies launching requirements in the coming months. While we            Purchasers continued to focus on good quality, well let properties
expect demand to pick up, given the outlook for the economy                and a clear divergence between prime and secondary has emerged.
remains mixed, we expect occupiers to remain cautious. The                 According to the IPD monthly index, UK offices recorded capital
annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate fell to 4.0% in           value growth of just 0.47% over the three months to March with a
March, down from 4.4% in February, however this downward trend             yield impact of 0.50% compared to 1.3% in the second half of last
is likely to be temporary. Inflation is expected to remain well above      year. With yields forecast to remain stable in the medium term
the official target of 2% year-on-year for the rest of 2011 and will       investment performance will be dependent on income return and
remain a key concern for occupiers this year as costs remain               rental growth. Local occupier conditions will be vital to performance.
inflated. Economic activity is expected to recover from its end 2010
dip, but expectations are now at, or slightly below, trend growth in       Competition for prime core lots in Central London, and a lack of
Q1. In the absence of significant economic growth we therefore             supply, has created a very competitive market that is pricing many
expect take-up this year will be at similar levels to 2010.                investors out to alternative areas. Combined with the strengthening
                                                                           market fundamentals for prime space, which will result in improved
Dwindling Grade A supply continued over the first quarter                  rental growth, this has the potential to encourage increased
In almost all markets Grade A vacancy rates are now below 4% and           investment activity outside of London this year.
trending downwards - albeit approximately in line with their five year
averages. There is currently nothing under construction                    The biggest concern for 2011 within the UK investment market is
speculatively in either Glasgow or Manchester. Across the                  likely to be the restriction placed on transactional activity as a result
remaining UK Regional Markets there is only around 488,000 sq ft           of a lack of product. Volumes will be limited by tight supply as
of space under construction speculatively, of which only 38,000 sq ft      opposed to a weakening in sentiment. While we anticipate more
is scheduled to complete this year. We therefore anticipate further        product deriving from banks seeking to reduce their exposure to real
gradual erosion of Grade A supply.                                         estate, a significant influx remains unlikely. We expect to see
                                                                           continuing demand from a range of investors with the best space
Conversely, we expect further influxes of Grade B space as a result        continuing to trade well but there is concern for pricing on secondary
of public sector cutbacks although this could well drive interest in the   space.
conversion of secondary stock to alternative uses such as
residential, as supported by announcements made in the
Chancellor’s recent Budget.

With the exception of the Western Corridor and Manchester, the
response to the impending supply shortage remains limited, with no
4 On Point • UK National Voice • Q1 2011




Birmingham
                                                Change*            12 Month    Figure 1: Take-up
  Summary Statistics               Q1 11
                                            Q-o-Q    Y-o-Y          Outlook
                                                                                            000s sq ft
                                                                                  1,200                                             Take-up                          5 Year Av erage
  Take-up (000s sq ft)              101.6   -16.3%      -44.5
                                                                                  1,000
  Supply (000s sq ft)               3,182   0.9 %      6.1 %
                                                                                    800
  Vacancy Rate (%)                  18.2%   10 bps     60 bps                       600

  Prime Rent (£ psf)               £28.50   1.8 %      3.6 %                        400

  U/C (000s sq ft)                  129.2   -59.3 %   -73.1 %                       200

                                                                                        0
                                                Change*            12 Month                    2000      2001        2002    2003      2004           2005    2006     2007        2008    2009       2010
                                    Q1 11
                                            Q-o-Q    Y-o-Y          Outlook
  Cap. Value (£ psf) %              £475    1.8 %      -0.7 %

  Investment Vol. (£m)               £7.9   -54.6 %    -95.2%
                                                                               Figure 2: Supply and Vacancy Rates
                                                                                         000s sq ft                                                                                               %
  Prime Yield (%)                  6.00 %    0 bps     25 bps                     350                                    Supply (LHS)                         Vacancy Rate (RHS)                          20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          18%
                                                                                  300
* % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated                                                                                                                              16%
using local currency                                                              250                                                                                                                     14%
                                                                                  200                                                                                                                     12%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          10%
                                                                                  150                                                                                                                     8%
Market Overview                                                                   100                                                                                                                     6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          4%
Building on improved leasing activity over the second half of 2010,                50
                                                                                                                                                                                                          2%
2011 has seen continued interest from occupiers, however this has                   0                                                                                                                     0%

not necessarily translated into deals. Take-up exceeded 100,000 sq                          2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

ft in Q1, down 45% compared with the equivalent period last year
and still 25% below the five year quarterly average for Q1 take-up.
The average deal size remains relatively small and there were only             Figure 3: Prime Rents and Rental Growth
seven deals greater than 5,000 sq ft in the quarter. Activity was                     %                                                                                                           £psf
                                                                                                          Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS)                          Prime Rent (LHS)
driven primarily by the services sector which accounted for 64% of                 20.0%                                                                                                                   35

total take-up.                                                                     15.0%                                                                                                                   30
                                                                                   10.0%                                                                                                                   25
Supply in Birmingham city centre remained relatively stable                         5.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                           20
                                                                                    0.0%
compared with the previous quarter. No speculative completions                                                                                                                                             15
                                                                                   -5.0%
are scheduled for this year and as a result even modest levels of                                                                                                                                          10
                                                                                  -10.0%
take-up will absorb supply. Availability of Grade A supply remains                                                                                                                                         5
                                                                                  -15.0%
relatively healthy, but given occupier preference for Grade A Space               -20.0%                                                                                                                   0
we expect this to gradually decline. Looking ahead there is just                                2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
129,000 sq ft due to complete speculatively over 2012-13. As a
result, occupiers seeking larger units of Grade A space may have to
consider preletting options.
                                                                               Figure 4: Prime Yields
Prime rents increased slightly, up 1.8%, to £28.50 per sq ft in the              8.0% %
first quarter. This was driven by demand for arguably the best
quality space in Birmingham, which is more limited in supply.                    7.0%

Incentives remain generous at around 36 months based on a 10                     6.0%
year term. The rest of the market is still competing hard for
occupiers with the gap between prime and secondary widening                      5.0%
further.
                                                                                 4.0%
                                                                                        1Q96

                                                                                               1Q97

                                                                                                       1Q98

                                                                                                              1Q99

                                                                                                                      1Q00

                                                                                                                             1Q01

                                                                                                                                      1Q02

                                                                                                                                               1Q03

                                                                                                                                                       1Q04

                                                                                                                                                              1Q05

                                                                                                                                                                     1Q06

                                                                                                                                                                            1Q07

                                                                                                                                                                                    1Q08

                                                                                                                                                                                           1Q09

                                                                                                                                                                                                   1Q10

                                                                                                                                                                                                           1Q11




Just one investment transaction completed in Q1: Capital Trust
purchased The Stock Exchange from Stoford for £7.95 million,                                          Prime Yields                           10 Year Av erage                         20 Year Av erage
reflecting a net initial yield of 6.40%. Prime yields have stabilised at
6.00%, but with upward pressure.                                               Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle
Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 5




Leeds
                                               Change*             12 Month    Figure 5: Take-up
  Summary Statistics          Q1 11
                                           Q-o-Q    Y-o-Y           Outlook
                                                                                           000s sq ft
                                                                                  800                                             Take-up                              5 Year Av erage
  Take-up (000s sq ft)          36.8      -54.5%      -56.5 %
                                                                                  700
  Supply (000s sq ft)          1,342       7.7 %       -2.6%                      600
                                                                                  500
  Vacancy Rate (%)             10.8 %      70 bps      -30bps                     400

  Prime Rent (£ psf)           £26.00      0.0 %       0.0 %                      300
                                                                                  200
  U/C (000s sq ft)              38.0      -51.3%       -5.1 %                     100
                                                                                    0
                                               Change*             12 Month                 2000      2001         2002     2003         2004     2005         2006      2007          2008     2009       2010
                               Q1 11
                                           Q-o-Q    Y-o-Y           Outlook
  Cap. Value (£ psf)            £433       0.0 %       0.0 %

  Investment Vol. (£m)         £14.4       160 %       -79.1%
                                                                               Figure 6: Supply and Vacancy Rates
                                                                                        000s sq ft                                                                                                     %
  Prime Yield (%)              6.00 %      0 bps        0 bps                     160                                      Supply (LHS)                        Vacancy Rate (RHS)                             14%
                                                                                  140                                                                                                                         12%
* % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated
                                                                                  120
using local currency                                                                                                                                                                                          10%
                                                                                  100
                                                                                                                                                                                                              8%
                                                                                   80
                                                                                                                                                                                                              6%
                                                                                   60
Market Overview                                                                                                                                                                                               4%
                                                                                   40

Office supply increased 8% over the first quarter, pushing overall                 20                                                                                                                         2%

vacancy rates up to 10.8% and 5.8% for Grade A space. Despite                       0                                                                                                                         0%

this, there is very little space in the development pipeline. Just                         2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

38,000 sq ft of space remains under construction speculatively, with
no further speculative starts anticipated this year. As result we
expect supply to fall gradually over the coming year. The most                 Figure 7: Prime Rents and Rental Growth
significant risk to this is the potential for the Public sector to release            %                                                                                                                £psf
space back onto the market. However, we have not yet seen any                     16.0%                    Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS)                         Prime Rent (LHS)                               30

dramatic changes with the public sector still trying to utilise their             14.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               25
                                                                                  12.0%
existing space.
                                                                                  10.0%                                                                                                                        20
                                                                                   8.0%
Despite an increase in the number of enquiries, take-up was                        6.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               15

disappointing with just 36,670 sq ft let during the first quarter. Take-           4.0%                                                                                                                        10

up was down 57% compared with the equivalent period last year                      2.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               5
                                                                                   0.0%
and remains 66% below the five year quarterly average. The
                                                                                   -2.0%                                                                                                                       0
majority of activity was generated by deals of less than 2,000 sq ft,                         2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
with only two deals greater than 5,000 sq ft. Occupiers remain
cautious with the majority continuing to assess the impact of the
current economic conditions on their business. As a consequence
activity remains driven largely by lease events and market churn.              Figure 8: Prime Yields
                                                                                             %
                                                                                    8.0%
Prime rents were stable at £26.00 per sq ft. Incentives remain
stable but generous with around 30 months rent free achievable on                   7.0%
a 10 year term. Rents for Grade B space remain under greater
pressure with landlords continuing to price competitively in order to               6.0%

attract tenants.
                                                                                    5.0%

The investment market remained fairly subdued over the first
                                                                                    4.0%
quarter. Just £14.4 million was traded this quarter across one deal.
                                                                                             1Q96

                                                                                                    1Q97

                                                                                                            1Q98

                                                                                                                    1Q99

                                                                                                                           1Q00

                                                                                                                                  1Q01

                                                                                                                                          1Q02

                                                                                                                                                 1Q03

                                                                                                                                                        1Q04

                                                                                                                                                                1Q05

                                                                                                                                                                         1Q06

                                                                                                                                                                                1Q07

                                                                                                                                                                                         1Q08

                                                                                                                                                                                                1Q09

                                                                                                                                                                                                       1Q10

                                                                                                                                                                                                               1Q11




Prime yields were stable at 6.00%.
                                                                                                    Prime Yield                           10 Year Av erage                                20 Year Av erage


                                                                               Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle
Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 6




Manchester
                                               Change*             12 Month    Figure 9: Take-up
  Summary Statistics          Q1 11
                                           Q-o-Q    Y-o-Y           Outlook
                                                                                            000s sq ft
                                                                                  1,400                                           Take-up                             5 Year Av erage
  Take-up (000s sq ft)         134.7       -59.4%     -28.7 %
                                                                                  1,200
  Supply (000s sq ft)          2,555       8.5 %       -5.1 %                     1,000

  Vacancy Rate (%)             11.9 %     100bps       -80 bps                      800

                                                                                    600
  Prime Rent (£ psf)           £28.50      0.0 %       1.8 %
                                                                                    400

  U/C (000s sq ft)                0        0.0 %         n/a                        200

                                                                                        0
                                               Change*             12 Month                    2000         2001    2002      2003       2004     2005        2006      2007      2008       2009       2010
                               Q1 11
                                           Q-o-Q    Y-o-Y           Outlook
  Cap. Value (£ psf)            £475       0.0 %       -2.5 %

  Investment Vol. (£m)         £22.8         n/a       -92.0%
                                                                               Figure 10: Supply and Vacancy Rates
                                                                                        000s sq ft                                                                                                  %
  Prime Yield (%)              6.00 %      0 bps       25 bps                     300                                      Supply (LHS)                       Vacancy Rate (RHS)                            14%

                                                                                  250                                                                                                                       12%
* % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated
using local currency                                                              200
                                                                                                                                                                                                            10%

                                                                                                                                                                                                            8%
                                                                                  150
                                                                                                                                                                                                            6%
Market Overview                                                                   100
                                                                                                                                                                                                            4%
                                                                                   50
Take-up volumes were disappointing over the first quarter of 2011,                                                                                                                                          2%

with less than 135,000 sq ft let, 29% below the equivalent period last              0                                                                                                                       0%

year and 41% below the five year quarterly average. The largest                             2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

deal was to The London School of Business & Finance who took
25,100 sq ft at Linley House, Dickinson Street. The majority of
transactions were for deals of less than 2,500 sq ft with the average          Figure 11: Prime Rents and Rental Growth
deal size falling from around 5,500 sq ft to just 3,300 sq ft. Activity
                                                                                      %                                                                                                             £psf
was generated by a variety of sectors, however the majority came                  14.0%                     Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS)                       Prime Rent (LHS)                              35
from the Services & Professional Services sectors which together                  12.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                             30
accounted for over half of Q1 take-up.                                            10.0%
                                                                                   8.0%                                                                                                                      25
                                                                                   6.0%                                                                                                                      20
There were no new completions within the City centre in Q1.                        4.0%
Nevertheless, overall supply increased 8% driven by the release of                 2.0%                                                                                                                      15

second hand space. Overall vacancy rates currently stand at                         0.0%                                                                                                                     10
                                                                                   -2.0%
11.9%, slightly above the five year average of 11.1%. Grade A                      -4.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                             5
supply remains much more constrained at just 2.4%, compared with                   -6.0%                                                                                                                     0
a five year average of 1.9%. Looking ahead the development                                     2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
pipeline remains constrained with nothing under construction
speculatively. Around 150,000 sq ft is expected to start
speculatively this year, however, delivery is not expected before
                                                                               Figure 12: Prime Yields
2013. Consequently, we expect supply for Grade A space will
continue to decline over the coming year.                                           8.0%
                                                                                              %



Prime rents remained stable over the first quarter at £28.50 per sq                 7.0%
ft. Incentives were also stable at around 30 months rent free
achievable on a 10 year term. While occupiers were still being                      6.0%

driven primarily by cost and not quality there was continued
evidence of tenants acting opportunistically to take advantage of                   5.0%

market conditions to secure good quality space on tenant favourable
terms. As a result 86% of take-up in the final quarter was comprised                4.0%
                                                                                              1Q96

                                                                                                     1Q97

                                                                                                             1Q98

                                                                                                                    1Q99

                                                                                                                           1Q00

                                                                                                                                  1Q01

                                                                                                                                         1Q02

                                                                                                                                                1Q03

                                                                                                                                                       1Q04

                                                                                                                                                               1Q05

                                                                                                                                                                       1Q06

                                                                                                                                                                               1Q07

                                                                                                                                                                                      1Q08

                                                                                                                                                                                             1Q09

                                                                                                                                                                                                     1Q10

                                                                                                                                                                                                             1Q11




of new or refurbished units.
                                                                                                     Prime Yield                         10 Year Av erage                             20 Year Av erage

Just one investment transaction took place over the first quarter.
                                                                               Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle
Himor Group purchased Ship Canal House for £22.8 million,
reflecting a net initial yield of 6.70%. Prime yields remained
unchanged at 6.00%.
Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 7




Western Corridor
                                               Change*             12 Month    Figure 13: Take-up
  Summary Statistics          Q1 11
                                           Q-o-Q    Y-o-Y           Outlook
                                                                                          000s sq ft
                                                                                  9,000                                           Take-up                            5 Year Av erage
  Take-up (000s sq ft)         393.1       -4.3%       48.4 %
                                                                                  8,000
  Supply (000s sq ft)          12,516      2.7 %       -3.9 %                     7,000
                                                                                  6,000
  Vacancy Rate (%)             14.6 %      40 bps      -50 bps                    5,000
                                                                                  4,000
  Prime Rent (£ psf)           £26.00      0.8 %       2.2 %                      3,000
                                                                                  2,000
  U/C (000s sq ft)             131.6       77.1 %     -30.6 %                     1,000
                                                                                      0
                                               Change*             12 Month                  2000         2001    2002         2003    2004          2005     2006     2007        2008    2009         2010
                               Q1 11
                                           Q-o-Q    Y-o-Y           Outlook
  Cap. Value (£ psf)            £400       0.8 %       2.0 %

  Investment Vol. (£m)         £111.7      53.2 %      9.2 %
                                                                               Figure 14: Supply and Vacancy Rates
                                                                                       000s sq ft                                                                                                %
  Prime Yield (%)              6.50 %      0 bps        0 bps                     1,200                                   Supply (LHS)                        Vacancy Rate (RHS)                        16%
                                                                                                                                                                                                        14%
* % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated      1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                        12%
using local currency                                                                800
                                                                                                                                                                                                        10%
                                                                                    600                                                                                                                 8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                        6%
Market Overview                                                                     400
                                                                                                                                                                                                        4%
                                                                                    200
Over 393,000 sq ft of office space was let in Q1, an increase of 48%                                                                                                                                    2%

year on year and broadly in line with the previous quarter. Despite                   0                                                                                                                 0%

clear improvement, take-up fell short of the 10 year average, down                           2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

36%. Activity remains driven by lease events rather than any single
growth sector. Occupiers continued to favour Grade A space, with
many taking of the opportunity to upgrade. Grade A take-up                     Figure 15: Prime Rents and Rental Growth
accounted for nearly two thirds of the total compared with an
                                                                                      %                                                                                                          £psf
average of nearer half.                                                            15.0%                   Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS)                         Prime Rent (LHS)                          35

                                                                                   10.0%                                                                                                                  30
Overall supply increased slightly reflecting a vacancy rate of 14.6%.                                                                                                                                     25
                                                                                    5.0%
This was driven by an increase in the level of Grade B supply. In                                                                                                                                         20
contrast, Grade A vacancy rates remained stable at 6.0%. Just                       0.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          15
130,000 sq ft of office space is under construction speculatively,                 -5.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          10
none of which is due to complete this year. Developers and
                                                                                  -10.0%
investors are becoming aware of this historically low level of stock                                                                                                                                      5

replacement and there are signs of a development market re-                       -15.0%                                                                                                                  0

emerging. As the level of Grade A supply reduces further we will                                  2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

see more pre-lets. Conversely, we expect further influxes of Grade
B space which could drive interest in the conversion of secondary
stock to alternative uses such as residential, as supported by                 Figure 16: Prime Yields
announcements made in the Chancellor’s recent Budget.
                                                                                   8.0%


Across the Western Corridor market, rents increased 0.8% over the                  7.0%
quarter driven by Windsor and Chiswick. Incentives were also
stable at up to 30 months rent free on a 10-year lease in the                      6.0%
Thames Valley and 24 months in West London. We anticipate
annual growth of 3.6% taking average prime rents to around £28.42                  5.0%

by the end of this year.
                                                                                   4.0%
                                                                                           1Q96

                                                                                                   1Q97

                                                                                                          1Q98

                                                                                                                 1Q99

                                                                                                                        1Q00

                                                                                                                                1Q01

                                                                                                                                       1Q02

                                                                                                                                              1Q03

                                                                                                                                                       1Q04

                                                                                                                                                              1Q05

                                                                                                                                                                     1Q06

                                                                                                                                                                            1Q07

                                                                                                                                                                                   1Q08

                                                                                                                                                                                          1Q09

                                                                                                                                                                                                 1Q10

                                                                                                                                                                                                         1Q11




Investment activity picked up in Q1 with £111.7 million traded,                                            Thames Valley Prime Yield                                 TV 10 Year Av erage
reflecting an increase of 9% compared with Q1 2009. UK investors                                           West London Prime Yield                                   WL 10 Year Av erage
were net buyers of £31.1 million, while UK institutions were the
                                                                               Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle
primary vendors, selling £42.1 million. Prime yields were stable at
6.50% in both West London and the Thames Valley.
Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 8




Edinburgh
                                               Change*             12 Month    Figure 17: Take-up
  Summary Statistics          Q1 11
                                           Q-o-Q    Y-o-Y           Outlook
                                                                                            000s sq ft
                                                                                  1,400                                              Take-up                             5 Year Av erage
  Take-up (000s sq ft)         149.1       -33.8%      -18.5%
                                                                                  1,200
  Supply (000s sq ft)          1,738       -3.4 %     -14.3 %                     1,000

  Vacancy Rate (%)             7.3 %      -20 bps     -120bps                       800

                                                                                    600
  Prime Rent (£ psf)           £27.50      -1.8 %      -1.8 %
                                                                                    400

  U/C (000s sq ft)             190.0       0.0 %         n/a                        200

                                                                                        0
                                               Change*             12 Month                    2000         2001      2002      2003       2004      2005        2006      2007         2008    2009          2010
                               Q1 11
                                           Q-o-Q    Y-o-Y           Outlook
  Cap. Value (£ psf)            £458       0.0 %       -1.9 %

  Investment Vol. (£m)         £11.1      -57.2 %     -69.0 %
                                                                               Figure 18: Supply and Vacancy Rates
                                                                                        000s sq ft                                                                                                     %
  Prime Yield (%)              6.00 %      0 bps        0 bps                     250                                        Supply (LHS)                        Vacancy Rate (RHS)                           10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                              9%
* % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated      200                                                                                                                         8%
using local currency                                                                                                                                                                                          7%
                                                                                  150                                                                                                                         6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                              5%
                                                                                  100                                                                                                                         4%
Market Overview                                                                                                                                                                                               3%
                                                                                   50                                                                                                                         2%
In terms of occupier take-up, activity was down compared with the                                                                                                                                             1%
previous quarter. Occupier take-up in Q1 reached around 150,000                     0                                                                                                                         0%

sq ft, down -33.8% compared with Q4 2010 and -18.5% compared                                 2001      2002          2003     2004         2005    2006          2007     2008          2009    2010

with the same period in 2010. The majority of transactions were
small, with around 80% of deals in units of less than 5,000 sq ft.
Despite the drop in take-up there remains a good level of enquiries            Figure 19: Prime Rents and Rental Growth
within the market. While we expect to see increased activity in the                   %                                                                                                                £psf
                                                                                                             Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS)                          Prime Rent (LHS)
second half of the year, growth will remain limited with deals driven              25.0%                                                                                                                        30

largely by lease events.                                                           20.0%                                                                                                                        29
                                                                                                                                                                                                                29
                                                                                   15.0%
Supply continued to decline gradually over Q1. Overall vacancy                     10.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                28
                                                                                                                                                                                                                28
rates fell to 7.3%, driven largely by declining Grade B space. The                  5.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                27
Grade A market remains constrained however, with vacancy rates                      0.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                27
stable at just 3.5%. Speculative development remains turned off,                   -5.0%                                                                                                                        26
with just one scheme currently under construction speculatively, due
                                                                                  -10.0%                                                                                                                        26
to complete in 2013. We therefore predict supply will continue to                               2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
decline as existing space is gradually absorbed. Developers are
beginning to position themselves strategically to take advantage of
the impending shortage of Grade A supply and the anticipated
increase in lease events expected in the next 2-3 years.                       Figure 20: Prime Yields
                                                                                              %
                                                                                    8.0%
Prime rents remained stable at £27.50 per sq ft. Incentives were
also stable with between 32-36 months achievable on a 10 year                       7.0%

term. Despite the impending supply shortages, overall demand
remains fairly weak. While rents are forecast to remain stable                      6.0%

throughout 2011, there is a slight downside risk to this scenario
                                                                                    5.0%
depending on the speed with which demand recovers.
                                                                                    4.0%
Investment volumes picked up slightly in Q1, with volumes totalling
                                                                                              1Q96

                                                                                                     1Q97

                                                                                                              1Q98

                                                                                                                      1Q99

                                                                                                                             1Q00

                                                                                                                                    1Q01

                                                                                                                                            1Q02

                                                                                                                                                   1Q03

                                                                                                                                                          1Q04

                                                                                                                                                                  1Q05

                                                                                                                                                                          1Q06

                                                                                                                                                                                 1Q07

                                                                                                                                                                                         1Q08

                                                                                                                                                                                                1Q09

                                                                                                                                                                                                       1Q10

                                                                                                                                                                                                               1Q11




£11.1 million. Volumes were up 35% compared with the previous
                                                                                                     Prime Yield                            10 Year Av erage                              20 Year Av erage
quarter. Prime yields remained stable at 6.00% and are expected to
remain flat for the remainder of 2011.                                         Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle
Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 9




Glasgow
                                               Change*             12 Month    Figure 21: Take-up
  Summary Statistics          Q1 11
                                           Q-o-Q    Y-o-Y           Outlook
                                                                                        000s sq ft
                                                                                  900                                           Take-up                               5 Year Av erage
  Take-up (000s sq ft)          91.1       -32.9%      3.7 %
                                                                                  800
  Supply (000s sq ft)          1,683       3.4 %       12.4 %                     700
                                                                                  600
  Vacancy Rate (%)             10.5 %      30 bps     110 bps                     500
                                                                                  400
  Prime Rent (£ psf)           £27.00      1.9 %       3.8 %                      300
                                                                                  200
  U/C (000s sq ft)                0          n/a         n/a                      100
                                                                                    0
                                               Change*             12 Month                2000     2001         2002     2003         2004     2005          2006      2007      2008       2009       2010
                               Q1 11
                                           Q-o-Q    Y-o-Y           Outlook
  Cap. Value (£ psf)            £450       1.9 %       -0.5 %

  Investment Vol. (£m)         £17.6      -55.4 %     -52.1 %
                                                                               Figure 22: Supply and Vacancy Rates
                                                                                        000s sq ft                                                                                                  %
  Prime Yield (%)              6.00 %      0 bps       25 bps                     160                                    Supply (LHS)                         Vacancy Rate (RHS)                           12%
                                                                                  140
* % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated                                                                                                                               10%
                                                                                  120
using local currency                                                                                                                                                                                       8%
                                                                                  100
                                                                                   80                                                                                                                      6%
                                                                                   60
Market Overview                                                                                                                                                                                            4%
                                                                                   40
                                                                                                                                                                                                           2%
The addition of some Grade B space pushed overall supply up                        20

slightly over the first quarter of the year. Conversely, the squeeze                0                                                                                                                      0%

on Grade A supply continued with Grade A vacancy rates falling to                          2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

3.2%. The development pipeline remains switched off with no
space under construction in the City centre and no speculative starts
anticipated in the coming year. As a result we expect the gradual              Figure 23: Prime Rents and Rental Growth
erosion of Grade A supply to continue. In contrast there is still a
                                                                                      %                                                                                                             £psf
significant amount of Grade B space which is expected to remain                    20.0%                  Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS)                          Prime Rent (LHS)                            30
inflated over 2011.
                                                                                   15.0%                                                                                                                    25

Unsurprisingly, take-up fell in comparison to the previously strong                10.0%                                                                                                                    20

fourth quarter, which was boosted by the 57,000 sq ft deal to                       5.0%                                                                                                                    15
Scottish and Southern Energy. There were no deals over 40,000 sq
                                                                                    0.0%                                                                                                                    10
ft, with the average deal size falling to around 4,100 sq ft. Despite
this, Q1 take-up improved in comparison to the equivalent period                   -5.0%                                                                                                                    5

last year, up by 3.7%. Notable deals included the 34,000 sq ft deal               -10.0%                                                                                                                    0
to Mercer at George Square and the acquisition by Ernst & Young of                            2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
11,600 sq ft at Pacific House. Activity was driven primarily by the
Services sector which accounted for 60% of activity. The level of
new enquiries was down slightly over the first quarter. While we do
                                                                               Figure 24: Prime Yields
not expect to see a significant bounceback in demand, we do
anticipate an increasing number of new enquiries over the coming                    8.0%
                                                                                            %

year.
                                                                                    7.0%
Prime rents increased 1.9% to £27.00 per sq ft with incentives
remaining high at between 24-30 months on a 10 year term. We                        6.0%
expect this to increase further over the course of the year, driven by
the gradual decline of Grade A space. In contrast the Grade B                       5.0%

market remains competitive with landlords competing for occupiers.
                                                                                    4.0%
                                                                                            1Q96

                                                                                                   1Q97

                                                                                                          1Q98

                                                                                                                  1Q99

                                                                                                                         1Q00

                                                                                                                                1Q01

                                                                                                                                        1Q02

                                                                                                                                               1Q03

                                                                                                                                                       1Q04

                                                                                                                                                               1Q05

                                                                                                                                                                        1Q06

                                                                                                                                                                               1Q07

                                                                                                                                                                                      1Q08

                                                                                                                                                                                             1Q09

                                                                                                                                                                                                    1Q10

                                                                                                                                                                                                            1Q11




The investment market remained relatively quiet over the first
quarter with £17.6 million transacted across two deals. Prime yields                               Prime Yield                          10 Year Av erage                               20 Year Av erage

remained stable at 6.0%. We do not anticipate any further
                                                                               Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle
movement in prime yields over the remainder of the year.
Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 10



Definitions

Take-up
Floorspace acquired for occupation by lease, prelease, freehold or long leasehold sale. All deals are included with the exception of Western
Corridor, where a 500 sq m threshold is applied.
Supply
Floorspace on the market and available for occupation. It includes space that is under offer.
Under Construction
Speculative development of new building or substantial refurbishment where construction activity is ongoing.
Prime Rent
The Jones Lang LaSalle view of the highest rent achievable for a hypothetical 10,000 sq ft unit of Grade A space in a prime location, without
any adjustment for incentives.
Business Sectors
Broad business sectors are classified as:
Banking & Finance: Banks and other financial institutions
Professional Services: Accountants, legal, management consultants etc
Service Industries: Advertising and PR, broadcasting, internet services, printing and publishing, software houses and data processing,
telecommunications services, transport, retail, leisure etc
Manufacturing Industries: Pharmaceuticals, computer hardware, electronics, construction, mining, engineering, food and drink etc
Public Administration & Institutions: Central and local government, institutions, charities, quangos, health and social etc
Jones Lang LaSalle contacts

 James Finnis                                      Chris Hiatt                                       Mark Wilson                                           Kenny Waitt
 Head of National Offices                          Chairman of National Offices                      Director – Joint Head of National                     Director
 National Offices                                  National Offices                                  Investment                                            Edinburgh Investment
 Stockley Park                                     London West End                                   London West End                                       Edinburgh
 +44 (0)20 8283 2534                               +44 (0)20 7399 5323                               +44 (0)20 7399 5874                                   +44 (0)131 301 6706
 james.finnis@eu.jll.com                           chris.hiatt@eu.jll.com                            mark.wilson@eu.jll.com                                kenny.waitt@eu.jll.com




 Jonathan Fear                                     Cameron Stott                                     Mike Buchan                                           Jeff Pearey
 Director                                          Director                                          Director                                              Director – Head of Leeds Office
 National Offices - Birmingham                     Edinburgh Agency                                  Glasgow Agency                                        National Offices - Leeds
 Birmingham                                        Edinburgh                                         Glasgow                                               Leeds
 +44 (0)121 634 6564                               +44 (0)131 301 6715                               +44 (0)141 567 6623                                   +44 (0)113 261 6236
 jonathan.fear@eu.jll.com                          cameron.stott@eu.jll.com                          mike.buchan@eu.jll.com                                jeff.pearey@eu.jll.com




 Trevor Sloan                                      Karen Williamson                                  Bill Page
 Director                                          Senior Analyst                                    Head of Offices Research
 National Offices - Manchester                     EMEA Research                                     EMEA Research
 Manchester                                        Canary Wharf                                      Canary Wharf
 +44 (0)161 828 6430                               +44 (0)20 3147 1197                               +44 (0)20 3147 1212
 trevor.sloan@eu.jll.com                           karen.williamson@eu.jll.com                       bill.page@eu.jll.com




UK National Voice – Q1 2011

OnPoint reports from Jones Lang LaSalle include quarterly and annual highlights of real estate activity, performance and specialised
surveys and forecasts that uncover emerging trends.

www.joneslanglasalle.co.uk




COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2011. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of
Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We
would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.

Contenu connexe

Tendances

CBRE l Market View Emea I&L October 2011
CBRE l Market View Emea I&L October 2011CBRE l Market View Emea I&L October 2011
CBRE l Market View Emea I&L October 2011agariel
 
FHO Partners 4Q 2010 Market Report
FHO Partners 4Q 2010 Market ReportFHO Partners 4Q 2010 Market Report
FHO Partners 4Q 2010 Market Reportfhopartners
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q1 2010 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q1 2010 PresentationElectrolux Interim Report Q1 2010 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q1 2010 PresentationElectrolux Group
 
Colliers International: Retail Highlights Fall 2010
Colliers International: Retail Highlights Fall 2010Colliers International: Retail Highlights Fall 2010
Colliers International: Retail Highlights Fall 2010Coy Davidson
 
Houston Industrial Market Report 4Q 2010
Houston Industrial Market Report 4Q 2010Houston Industrial Market Report 4Q 2010
Houston Industrial Market Report 4Q 2010Coy Davidson
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q3 2010 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q3 2010 PresentationElectrolux Interim Report Q3 2010 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q3 2010 PresentationElectrolux Group
 
March 2011 Office Notes
March 2011 Office NotesMarch 2011 Office Notes
March 2011 Office Noteselsantos
 
Kvartalsrapport 4. kvartal 2010
Kvartalsrapport 4. kvartal 2010Kvartalsrapport 4. kvartal 2010
Kvartalsrapport 4. kvartal 2010Finanshuset_Acta
 
Houston office market report 3 q 10
Houston office market report 3 q 10Houston office market report 3 q 10
Houston office market report 3 q 10Coy Davidson
 
Residential-View-Spring-2015
Residential-View-Spring-2015Residential-View-Spring-2015
Residential-View-Spring-2015Lee Layton
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q3 2011 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q3 2011 PresentationElectrolux Interim Report Q3 2011 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q3 2011 PresentationElectrolux Group
 
2012 4 q_houston_retail__market_report
2012 4 q_houston_retail__market_report2012 4 q_houston_retail__market_report
2012 4 q_houston_retail__market_reportLisa Bridges
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2010 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2010 PresentationElectrolux Interim Report Q2 2010 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2010 PresentationElectrolux Group
 
The Knowledge Report Beijing Office 2 Q2011
The Knowledge Report   Beijing Office 2 Q2011The Knowledge Report   Beijing Office 2 Q2011
The Knowledge Report Beijing Office 2 Q2011serstad
 
Houston Office Market Report Q2 2012
Houston Office Market Report Q2 2012Houston Office Market Report Q2 2012
Houston Office Market Report Q2 2012Coy Davidson
 
Top Thoughts For 2011
Top Thoughts For 2011Top Thoughts For 2011
Top Thoughts For 2011Patty
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q4 2009 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q4 2009 PresentationElectrolux Interim Report Q4 2009 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q4 2009 PresentationElectrolux Group
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2011 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2011 Presentation Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2011 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2011 Presentation Electrolux Group
 

Tendances (20)

CBRE l Market View Emea I&L October 2011
CBRE l Market View Emea I&L October 2011CBRE l Market View Emea I&L October 2011
CBRE l Market View Emea I&L October 2011
 
FHO Partners 4Q 2010 Market Report
FHO Partners 4Q 2010 Market ReportFHO Partners 4Q 2010 Market Report
FHO Partners 4Q 2010 Market Report
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q1 2010 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q1 2010 PresentationElectrolux Interim Report Q1 2010 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q1 2010 Presentation
 
Colliers International: Retail Highlights Fall 2010
Colliers International: Retail Highlights Fall 2010Colliers International: Retail Highlights Fall 2010
Colliers International: Retail Highlights Fall 2010
 
Houston Industrial Market Report 4Q 2010
Houston Industrial Market Report 4Q 2010Houston Industrial Market Report 4Q 2010
Houston Industrial Market Report 4Q 2010
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q3 2010 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q3 2010 PresentationElectrolux Interim Report Q3 2010 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q3 2010 Presentation
 
March 2011 Office Notes
March 2011 Office NotesMarch 2011 Office Notes
March 2011 Office Notes
 
Kvartalsrapport 4. kvartal 2010
Kvartalsrapport 4. kvartal 2010Kvartalsrapport 4. kvartal 2010
Kvartalsrapport 4. kvartal 2010
 
Houston office market report 3 q 10
Houston office market report 3 q 10Houston office market report 3 q 10
Houston office market report 3 q 10
 
Month in review_february_2016_residential
Month in review_february_2016_residentialMonth in review_february_2016_residential
Month in review_february_2016_residential
 
Residential-View-Spring-2015
Residential-View-Spring-2015Residential-View-Spring-2015
Residential-View-Spring-2015
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q3 2011 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q3 2011 PresentationElectrolux Interim Report Q3 2011 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q3 2011 Presentation
 
2012 4 q_houston_retail__market_report
2012 4 q_houston_retail__market_report2012 4 q_houston_retail__market_report
2012 4 q_houston_retail__market_report
 
Gt2011
Gt2011Gt2011
Gt2011
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2010 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2010 PresentationElectrolux Interim Report Q2 2010 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2010 Presentation
 
The Knowledge Report Beijing Office 2 Q2011
The Knowledge Report   Beijing Office 2 Q2011The Knowledge Report   Beijing Office 2 Q2011
The Knowledge Report Beijing Office 2 Q2011
 
Houston Office Market Report Q2 2012
Houston Office Market Report Q2 2012Houston Office Market Report Q2 2012
Houston Office Market Report Q2 2012
 
Top Thoughts For 2011
Top Thoughts For 2011Top Thoughts For 2011
Top Thoughts For 2011
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q4 2009 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q4 2009 PresentationElectrolux Interim Report Q4 2009 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q4 2009 Presentation
 
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2011 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2011 Presentation Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2011 Presentation
Electrolux Interim Report Q2 2011 Presentation
 

En vedette

CRE models - Better By Design 2011
CRE models - Better By Design 2011CRE models - Better By Design 2011
CRE models - Better By Design 2011Colin Harrop
 
Building Consultancy
Building ConsultancyBuilding Consultancy
Building ConsultancyColin Harrop
 
Global Sustainability Perspective March 2011
Global Sustainability Perspective March 2011Global Sustainability Perspective March 2011
Global Sustainability Perspective March 2011Colin Harrop
 
Industrial & distribution floorspace today
Industrial & distribution floorspace todayIndustrial & distribution floorspace today
Industrial & distribution floorspace todayColin Harrop
 
Jll P&Ds Brochure
Jll   P&Ds BrochureJll   P&Ds Brochure
Jll P&Ds BrochureColin Harrop
 
Capability Statement November 2011
Capability Statement November 2011Capability Statement November 2011
Capability Statement November 2011Colin Harrop
 
Project Management Profile
Project Management ProfileProject Management Profile
Project Management ProfileColin Harrop
 
Corporate occupier conditions - Europe
Corporate occupier conditions - EuropeCorporate occupier conditions - Europe
Corporate occupier conditions - EuropeColin Harrop
 
King Sturge - 250 years in the making
King Sturge - 250 years in the makingKing Sturge - 250 years in the making
King Sturge - 250 years in the makingColin Harrop
 
Gerald Eve - Prime logistics
Gerald Eve - Prime logistics Gerald Eve - Prime logistics
Gerald Eve - Prime logistics Colin Harrop
 
Corporate occupier conditions
Corporate occupier conditionsCorporate occupier conditions
Corporate occupier conditionsColin Harrop
 
European Property office market 2010/11
European Property office market 2010/11European Property office market 2010/11
European Property office market 2010/11Colin Harrop
 
Corporate Profile Sept 2010
Corporate Profile Sept 2010Corporate Profile Sept 2010
Corporate Profile Sept 2010Colin Harrop
 
Presentac..damian
Presentac..damianPresentac..damian
Presentac..damianlolipineiro
 
Alberto e rubén combustibles
Alberto e rubén combustiblesAlberto e rubén combustibles
Alberto e rubén combustibleslolipineiro
 

En vedette (16)

CRE models - Better By Design 2011
CRE models - Better By Design 2011CRE models - Better By Design 2011
CRE models - Better By Design 2011
 
Building Consultancy
Building ConsultancyBuilding Consultancy
Building Consultancy
 
Global Sustainability Perspective March 2011
Global Sustainability Perspective March 2011Global Sustainability Perspective March 2011
Global Sustainability Perspective March 2011
 
Industrial & distribution floorspace today
Industrial & distribution floorspace todayIndustrial & distribution floorspace today
Industrial & distribution floorspace today
 
Jll P&Ds Brochure
Jll   P&Ds BrochureJll   P&Ds Brochure
Jll P&Ds Brochure
 
Capability Statement November 2011
Capability Statement November 2011Capability Statement November 2011
Capability Statement November 2011
 
Project Management Profile
Project Management ProfileProject Management Profile
Project Management Profile
 
Corporate occupier conditions - Europe
Corporate occupier conditions - EuropeCorporate occupier conditions - Europe
Corporate occupier conditions - Europe
 
King Sturge - 250 years in the making
King Sturge - 250 years in the makingKing Sturge - 250 years in the making
King Sturge - 250 years in the making
 
Gerald Eve - Prime logistics
Gerald Eve - Prime logistics Gerald Eve - Prime logistics
Gerald Eve - Prime logistics
 
Corporate occupier conditions
Corporate occupier conditionsCorporate occupier conditions
Corporate occupier conditions
 
European Property office market 2010/11
European Property office market 2010/11European Property office market 2010/11
European Property office market 2010/11
 
Corporate Profile Sept 2010
Corporate Profile Sept 2010Corporate Profile Sept 2010
Corporate Profile Sept 2010
 
CSR report
CSR reportCSR report
CSR report
 
Presentac..damian
Presentac..damianPresentac..damian
Presentac..damian
 
Alberto e rubén combustibles
Alberto e rubén combustiblesAlberto e rubén combustibles
Alberto e rubén combustibles
 

Similaire à UK Office Market Conditions and Outlook Q1 2011

Residential View Autumn 2014
Residential View Autumn 2014Residential View Autumn 2014
Residential View Autumn 2014Lee Layton
 
january-2017-4350
january-2017-4350january-2017-4350
january-2017-4350James Nowak
 
Central London Office Report 2Q 2011
Central London Office Report 2Q 2011Central London Office Report 2Q 2011
Central London Office Report 2Q 2011Coy Davidson
 
IP Global London Portfolio Analysis 2009 - 2013
IP Global London Portfolio Analysis 2009 - 2013IP Global London Portfolio Analysis 2009 - 2013
IP Global London Portfolio Analysis 2009 - 2013Nicole van Vuuren
 
The Brief Archives - Issue 08
The Brief Archives - Issue 08The Brief Archives - Issue 08
The Brief Archives - Issue 08IPIN Global
 
National Dashboard Report | Office - Metro Areas with Population < 1M
National Dashboard Report | Office - Metro Areas with Population < 1MNational Dashboard Report | Office - Metro Areas with Population < 1M
National Dashboard Report | Office - Metro Areas with Population < 1MDarren Shaw, SIOR
 
B8RE Market Report July 19
B8RE Market Report July 19B8RE Market Report July 19
B8RE Market Report July 19Simon Wood
 
Resi View - Winter 2015
Resi View - Winter 2015Resi View - Winter 2015
Resi View - Winter 2015Lee Layton
 
New Homes Residential View - Autumn/Winter 2016
New Homes Residential View - Autumn/Winter 2016New Homes Residential View - Autumn/Winter 2016
New Homes Residential View - Autumn/Winter 2016Lee Layton
 
Savills - Office Market Report - Barcelona - Q3 2011
Savills - Office Market Report - Barcelona - Q3 2011Savills - Office Market Report - Barcelona - Q3 2011
Savills - Office Market Report - Barcelona - Q3 2011Eusebi Carles Pastor
 
Hong Kong replaces London as most expensive Global City
Hong Kong replaces London as most expensive Global CityHong Kong replaces London as most expensive Global City
Hong Kong replaces London as most expensive Global CitySavills Studley
 
The Brief Archives - Issue 04
The Brief Archives - Issue 04The Brief Archives - Issue 04
The Brief Archives - Issue 04IPIN Global
 
Belgravia Letting Agents - Rental Insights
Belgravia Letting Agents - Rental InsightsBelgravia Letting Agents - Rental Insights
Belgravia Letting Agents - Rental InsightsKnight Frank LLP
 
Jll commercial real estate market report toronto 2014
Jll   commercial real estate market report toronto 2014Jll   commercial real estate market report toronto 2014
Jll commercial real estate market report toronto 2014Chris Fyvie
 
New Home Residential View - Spring 2016
New Home Residential View - Spring 2016New Home Residential View - Spring 2016
New Home Residential View - Spring 2016Lee Layton
 
Carter Jonas New Homes Residential View - Winter 2016
Carter Jonas New Homes Residential View - Winter 2016Carter Jonas New Homes Residential View - Winter 2016
Carter Jonas New Homes Residential View - Winter 2016Lee Layton
 
Offices NW: Michael Hawkins, Colliers International
Offices NW: Michael Hawkins, Colliers InternationalOffices NW: Michael Hawkins, Colliers International
Offices NW: Michael Hawkins, Colliers InternationalPlace North West
 
13265_Housing_Market_Report_Q4_2015_v11
13265_Housing_Market_Report_Q4_2015_v1113265_Housing_Market_Report_Q4_2015_v11
13265_Housing_Market_Report_Q4_2015_v11Samuel Blake
 

Similaire à UK Office Market Conditions and Outlook Q1 2011 (20)

London View Autumn 2016
London View Autumn 2016London View Autumn 2016
London View Autumn 2016
 
Residential View Autumn 2014
Residential View Autumn 2014Residential View Autumn 2014
Residential View Autumn 2014
 
january-2017-4350
january-2017-4350january-2017-4350
january-2017-4350
 
Central London Office Report 2Q 2011
Central London Office Report 2Q 2011Central London Office Report 2Q 2011
Central London Office Report 2Q 2011
 
IP Global London Portfolio Analysis 2009 - 2013
IP Global London Portfolio Analysis 2009 - 2013IP Global London Portfolio Analysis 2009 - 2013
IP Global London Portfolio Analysis 2009 - 2013
 
The Brief Archives - Issue 08
The Brief Archives - Issue 08The Brief Archives - Issue 08
The Brief Archives - Issue 08
 
National Dashboard Report | Office - Metro Areas with Population < 1M
National Dashboard Report | Office - Metro Areas with Population < 1MNational Dashboard Report | Office - Metro Areas with Population < 1M
National Dashboard Report | Office - Metro Areas with Population < 1M
 
B8RE Market Report July 19
B8RE Market Report July 19B8RE Market Report July 19
B8RE Market Report July 19
 
Resi View - Winter 2015
Resi View - Winter 2015Resi View - Winter 2015
Resi View - Winter 2015
 
Q3 Country
Q3 CountryQ3 Country
Q3 Country
 
New Homes Residential View - Autumn/Winter 2016
New Homes Residential View - Autumn/Winter 2016New Homes Residential View - Autumn/Winter 2016
New Homes Residential View - Autumn/Winter 2016
 
Savills - Office Market Report - Barcelona - Q3 2011
Savills - Office Market Report - Barcelona - Q3 2011Savills - Office Market Report - Barcelona - Q3 2011
Savills - Office Market Report - Barcelona - Q3 2011
 
Hong Kong replaces London as most expensive Global City
Hong Kong replaces London as most expensive Global CityHong Kong replaces London as most expensive Global City
Hong Kong replaces London as most expensive Global City
 
The Brief Archives - Issue 04
The Brief Archives - Issue 04The Brief Archives - Issue 04
The Brief Archives - Issue 04
 
Belgravia Letting Agents - Rental Insights
Belgravia Letting Agents - Rental InsightsBelgravia Letting Agents - Rental Insights
Belgravia Letting Agents - Rental Insights
 
Jll commercial real estate market report toronto 2014
Jll   commercial real estate market report toronto 2014Jll   commercial real estate market report toronto 2014
Jll commercial real estate market report toronto 2014
 
New Home Residential View - Spring 2016
New Home Residential View - Spring 2016New Home Residential View - Spring 2016
New Home Residential View - Spring 2016
 
Carter Jonas New Homes Residential View - Winter 2016
Carter Jonas New Homes Residential View - Winter 2016Carter Jonas New Homes Residential View - Winter 2016
Carter Jonas New Homes Residential View - Winter 2016
 
Offices NW: Michael Hawkins, Colliers International
Offices NW: Michael Hawkins, Colliers InternationalOffices NW: Michael Hawkins, Colliers International
Offices NW: Michael Hawkins, Colliers International
 
13265_Housing_Market_Report_Q4_2015_v11
13265_Housing_Market_Report_Q4_2015_v1113265_Housing_Market_Report_Q4_2015_v11
13265_Housing_Market_Report_Q4_2015_v11
 

Dernier

Inspirational Quotes About Italy and Food
Inspirational Quotes About Italy and FoodInspirational Quotes About Italy and Food
Inspirational Quotes About Italy and FoodKasia Chojecki
 
Haitian culture and stuff and places and food and travel.pptx
Haitian culture and stuff and places and food and travel.pptxHaitian culture and stuff and places and food and travel.pptx
Haitian culture and stuff and places and food and travel.pptxhxhlixia
 
5S - House keeping (Seiri, Seiton, Seiso, Seiketsu, Shitsuke)
5S - House keeping (Seiri, Seiton, Seiso, Seiketsu, Shitsuke)5S - House keeping (Seiri, Seiton, Seiso, Seiketsu, Shitsuke)
5S - House keeping (Seiri, Seiton, Seiso, Seiketsu, Shitsuke)Mazie Garcia
 
Sicily Holidays Guide Book: Unveiling the Treasures of Italy's Jewel
Sicily Holidays Guide Book: Unveiling the Treasures of Italy's JewelSicily Holidays Guide Book: Unveiling the Treasures of Italy's Jewel
Sicily Holidays Guide Book: Unveiling the Treasures of Italy's JewelTime for Sicily
 
Hoi An Ancient Town, Vietnam (越南 會安古鎮).ppsx
Hoi An Ancient Town, Vietnam (越南 會安古鎮).ppsxHoi An Ancient Town, Vietnam (越南 會安古鎮).ppsx
Hoi An Ancient Town, Vietnam (越南 會安古鎮).ppsxChung Yen Chang
 
69 Girls ✠ 9599264170 ✠ Call Girls In East Of Kailash (VIP)
69 Girls ✠ 9599264170 ✠ Call Girls In East Of Kailash (VIP)69 Girls ✠ 9599264170 ✠ Call Girls In East Of Kailash (VIP)
69 Girls ✠ 9599264170 ✠ Call Girls In East Of Kailash (VIP)Escort Service
 
question 2: airplane vocabulary presentation
question 2: airplane vocabulary presentationquestion 2: airplane vocabulary presentation
question 2: airplane vocabulary presentationcaminantesdaauga
 
a presentation for foreigners about how to travel in Germany.
a presentation for foreigners about how to travel in Germany.a presentation for foreigners about how to travel in Germany.
a presentation for foreigners about how to travel in Germany.moritzmieg
 
Aeromexico Airlines Flight Name Change Policy
Aeromexico Airlines Flight Name Change PolicyAeromexico Airlines Flight Name Change Policy
Aeromexico Airlines Flight Name Change PolicyFlyFairTravels
 
Moroccan Architecture presentation ( Omar & Yasine ).pptx
Moroccan Architecture presentation ( Omar & Yasine ).pptxMoroccan Architecture presentation ( Omar & Yasine ).pptx
Moroccan Architecture presentation ( Omar & Yasine ).pptxOmarOuazzani1
 
Authentic Travel Experience 2024 Greg DeShields.pptx
Authentic Travel Experience 2024 Greg DeShields.pptxAuthentic Travel Experience 2024 Greg DeShields.pptx
Authentic Travel Experience 2024 Greg DeShields.pptxGregory DeShields
 
Where to Stay in Lagos, Portugal.pptxasd
Where to Stay in Lagos, Portugal.pptxasdWhere to Stay in Lagos, Portugal.pptxasd
Where to Stay in Lagos, Portugal.pptxasdusmanghaniwixpatriot
 
How Safe Is It To Witness Whales In Maui’s Waters
How Safe Is It To Witness Whales In Maui’s WatersHow Safe Is It To Witness Whales In Maui’s Waters
How Safe Is It To Witness Whales In Maui’s WatersMakena Coast Charters
 
Italia Lucca 1 Un tesoro nascosto tra le sue mura
Italia Lucca 1 Un tesoro nascosto tra le sue muraItalia Lucca 1 Un tesoro nascosto tra le sue mura
Italia Lucca 1 Un tesoro nascosto tra le sue murasandamichaela *
 
Revolutionalizing Travel: A VacAI Update
Revolutionalizing Travel: A VacAI UpdateRevolutionalizing Travel: A VacAI Update
Revolutionalizing Travel: A VacAI Updatejoymorrison10
 

Dernier (17)

Inspirational Quotes About Italy and Food
Inspirational Quotes About Italy and FoodInspirational Quotes About Italy and Food
Inspirational Quotes About Italy and Food
 
Haitian culture and stuff and places and food and travel.pptx
Haitian culture and stuff and places and food and travel.pptxHaitian culture and stuff and places and food and travel.pptx
Haitian culture and stuff and places and food and travel.pptx
 
5S - House keeping (Seiri, Seiton, Seiso, Seiketsu, Shitsuke)
5S - House keeping (Seiri, Seiton, Seiso, Seiketsu, Shitsuke)5S - House keeping (Seiri, Seiton, Seiso, Seiketsu, Shitsuke)
5S - House keeping (Seiri, Seiton, Seiso, Seiketsu, Shitsuke)
 
Sicily Holidays Guide Book: Unveiling the Treasures of Italy's Jewel
Sicily Holidays Guide Book: Unveiling the Treasures of Italy's JewelSicily Holidays Guide Book: Unveiling the Treasures of Italy's Jewel
Sicily Holidays Guide Book: Unveiling the Treasures of Italy's Jewel
 
Hoi An Ancient Town, Vietnam (越南 會安古鎮).ppsx
Hoi An Ancient Town, Vietnam (越南 會安古鎮).ppsxHoi An Ancient Town, Vietnam (越南 會安古鎮).ppsx
Hoi An Ancient Town, Vietnam (越南 會安古鎮).ppsx
 
69 Girls ✠ 9599264170 ✠ Call Girls In East Of Kailash (VIP)
69 Girls ✠ 9599264170 ✠ Call Girls In East Of Kailash (VIP)69 Girls ✠ 9599264170 ✠ Call Girls In East Of Kailash (VIP)
69 Girls ✠ 9599264170 ✠ Call Girls In East Of Kailash (VIP)
 
Enjoy ➥8448380779▻ Call Girls In Sector 62 Noida Escorts Delhi NCR
Enjoy ➥8448380779▻ Call Girls In Sector 62 Noida Escorts Delhi NCREnjoy ➥8448380779▻ Call Girls In Sector 62 Noida Escorts Delhi NCR
Enjoy ➥8448380779▻ Call Girls In Sector 62 Noida Escorts Delhi NCR
 
question 2: airplane vocabulary presentation
question 2: airplane vocabulary presentationquestion 2: airplane vocabulary presentation
question 2: airplane vocabulary presentation
 
Enjoy ➥8448380779▻ Call Girls In Sector 74 Noida Escorts Delhi NCR
Enjoy ➥8448380779▻ Call Girls In Sector 74 Noida Escorts Delhi NCREnjoy ➥8448380779▻ Call Girls In Sector 74 Noida Escorts Delhi NCR
Enjoy ➥8448380779▻ Call Girls In Sector 74 Noida Escorts Delhi NCR
 
a presentation for foreigners about how to travel in Germany.
a presentation for foreigners about how to travel in Germany.a presentation for foreigners about how to travel in Germany.
a presentation for foreigners about how to travel in Germany.
 
Aeromexico Airlines Flight Name Change Policy
Aeromexico Airlines Flight Name Change PolicyAeromexico Airlines Flight Name Change Policy
Aeromexico Airlines Flight Name Change Policy
 
Moroccan Architecture presentation ( Omar & Yasine ).pptx
Moroccan Architecture presentation ( Omar & Yasine ).pptxMoroccan Architecture presentation ( Omar & Yasine ).pptx
Moroccan Architecture presentation ( Omar & Yasine ).pptx
 
Authentic Travel Experience 2024 Greg DeShields.pptx
Authentic Travel Experience 2024 Greg DeShields.pptxAuthentic Travel Experience 2024 Greg DeShields.pptx
Authentic Travel Experience 2024 Greg DeShields.pptx
 
Where to Stay in Lagos, Portugal.pptxasd
Where to Stay in Lagos, Portugal.pptxasdWhere to Stay in Lagos, Portugal.pptxasd
Where to Stay in Lagos, Portugal.pptxasd
 
How Safe Is It To Witness Whales In Maui’s Waters
How Safe Is It To Witness Whales In Maui’s WatersHow Safe Is It To Witness Whales In Maui’s Waters
How Safe Is It To Witness Whales In Maui’s Waters
 
Italia Lucca 1 Un tesoro nascosto tra le sue mura
Italia Lucca 1 Un tesoro nascosto tra le sue muraItalia Lucca 1 Un tesoro nascosto tra le sue mura
Italia Lucca 1 Un tesoro nascosto tra le sue mura
 
Revolutionalizing Travel: A VacAI Update
Revolutionalizing Travel: A VacAI UpdateRevolutionalizing Travel: A VacAI Update
Revolutionalizing Travel: A VacAI Update
 

UK Office Market Conditions and Outlook Q1 2011

  • 1. UK National Voice - Q1 2011 Office Market Conditions Across the UK Building on improved leasing activity over the second half of 2010, 2011 has seen continued interest from occupiers, although this has not yet translated into deals. Q1 take-up activity was down 9% compared with the equivalent period last year, although performance remains mixed across the UK. Supply constraints resulted in further polarisation between Grade A and Grade B space. Rents continue to be heavily supported by incentives. While we expect to see further prime rental growth averaging around 1.1% for 2011, the Grade B market carries significantly more downside risk. Investment volumes were relatively weak this quarter as buyers continued to focus on Central London and the South East markets. Increased competition for the best space as well as strengthening market fundamentals may drive increased investor activity outside of London this year.
  • 2. 2 On Point • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 UK Summary Change* 12 Month Summary Statistics Q1 11 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook Take-up (000s sq ft) 906 -30.6 % -8.7 % Supply (000s sq ft) 23,067 2.8 % -3.1 % Vacancy Rate (%) 12.6 % 0 bps -20 bps Prime Rent (£ psf) £27.08 0.8 % 1.7 % U/C (000s sq ft) 488.6 8.3 % -20.7% Investment Vol. (£m) £185.5 27.3 % -70.8 % * % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated using local currency UK Office Rental Clock Rental Growth Rents London City Slowing Falling London West End Rental Growth Rents Accelerating Bottoming Out Edinburgh, Leeds West London Manchester Birmingham, Glasgow, Thames Valley For information on the Central London market, please see the Jones Lang LaSalle Central London Market Report
  • 3. On Point • UK National Voice Q1 2011 3 National Overview 2011 witnessed continued interest from occupiers, however this new speculative commencements due this year outside of these two failed to translate into a substantial amount of take-up activity. The locations. While we expect developers to begin positioning gradual erosion of Grade A supply continued, and with very little in themselves strategically to take advantage of the impending the development pipeline we expect a return to preletting activity in shortage of Grade A supply, the lack of speculative development some markets. Investment volumes were relatively weak this quarter funding will mean that the pipeline will remain severely limited. As as buyers continued to focus on Central London and the South East. Grade A supply reduces further we therefore expect to see a return However, increased competition and strengthening market to preletting activity. fundamentals for prime space should drive increased investor activity outside of London this year. Q1 witnessed further polarisation between Grade A and Grade B space. Prime rents increased in Birmingham, Glasgow and the Continued interest from occupiers, but conversion to deals Western Corridor, while rents in the remaining regional centres were remains slow stable. Prime rents continue to be supported by significant UK office take-up reached around 906,000 sq ft over the first quarter incentives, with up to 30 months rent free achievable on a 10 year of 2011, down 9% compared with the equivalent period last year term in most markets. We expect to see further prime rental growth and down 36% compared with the five year quarterly average. averaging at around 1.1% for 2011, driven by the anticipated Performance was down year-on-year in all markets with the shortage of Grade A space. In contrast the Grade B market carries exception of the Thames Valley and Glasgow where take-up significantly more downside risk with landlords continuing to increased, but remained below their respective five year averages. compete for occupiers. While we have not yet seen any significant In the Thames valley take-up increased from a very low base and release of Grade B space onto the market, we do expect the level of was boosted by several large deals of more than 25,000 sq ft. Grade B supply to remain inflated. There was no single sector driving activity in Q1. In line with the previous quarter, activity was driven by a broad range of companies, Strengthening market fundamentals likely to encourage particularly from within the Business services sector, including investment activity outside of London recruitment consultants, IT companies and Media firms. Investment activity remained relatively subdued in the UK regional markets as most investors have continued to seek assets in London Although occupier demand will continue to be dominated by and the South East. Prime yields have been stable at 6.00% in the structural events this year, we anticipate a growing number of Scottish and regional markets and at 6.50% in the South East. companies launching requirements in the coming months. While we Purchasers continued to focus on good quality, well let properties expect demand to pick up, given the outlook for the economy and a clear divergence between prime and secondary has emerged. remains mixed, we expect occupiers to remain cautious. The According to the IPD monthly index, UK offices recorded capital annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate fell to 4.0% in value growth of just 0.47% over the three months to March with a March, down from 4.4% in February, however this downward trend yield impact of 0.50% compared to 1.3% in the second half of last is likely to be temporary. Inflation is expected to remain well above year. With yields forecast to remain stable in the medium term the official target of 2% year-on-year for the rest of 2011 and will investment performance will be dependent on income return and remain a key concern for occupiers this year as costs remain rental growth. Local occupier conditions will be vital to performance. inflated. Economic activity is expected to recover from its end 2010 dip, but expectations are now at, or slightly below, trend growth in Competition for prime core lots in Central London, and a lack of Q1. In the absence of significant economic growth we therefore supply, has created a very competitive market that is pricing many expect take-up this year will be at similar levels to 2010. investors out to alternative areas. Combined with the strengthening market fundamentals for prime space, which will result in improved Dwindling Grade A supply continued over the first quarter rental growth, this has the potential to encourage increased In almost all markets Grade A vacancy rates are now below 4% and investment activity outside of London this year. trending downwards - albeit approximately in line with their five year averages. There is currently nothing under construction The biggest concern for 2011 within the UK investment market is speculatively in either Glasgow or Manchester. Across the likely to be the restriction placed on transactional activity as a result remaining UK Regional Markets there is only around 488,000 sq ft of a lack of product. Volumes will be limited by tight supply as of space under construction speculatively, of which only 38,000 sq ft opposed to a weakening in sentiment. While we anticipate more is scheduled to complete this year. We therefore anticipate further product deriving from banks seeking to reduce their exposure to real gradual erosion of Grade A supply. estate, a significant influx remains unlikely. We expect to see continuing demand from a range of investors with the best space Conversely, we expect further influxes of Grade B space as a result continuing to trade well but there is concern for pricing on secondary of public sector cutbacks although this could well drive interest in the space. conversion of secondary stock to alternative uses such as residential, as supported by announcements made in the Chancellor’s recent Budget. With the exception of the Western Corridor and Manchester, the response to the impending supply shortage remains limited, with no
  • 4. 4 On Point • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 Birmingham Change* 12 Month Figure 1: Take-up Summary Statistics Q1 11 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook 000s sq ft 1,200 Take-up 5 Year Av erage Take-up (000s sq ft) 101.6 -16.3% -44.5 1,000 Supply (000s sq ft) 3,182 0.9 % 6.1 % 800 Vacancy Rate (%) 18.2% 10 bps 60 bps 600 Prime Rent (£ psf) £28.50 1.8 % 3.6 % 400 U/C (000s sq ft) 129.2 -59.3 % -73.1 % 200 0 Change* 12 Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 11 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook Cap. Value (£ psf) % £475 1.8 % -0.7 % Investment Vol. (£m) £7.9 -54.6 % -95.2% Figure 2: Supply and Vacancy Rates 000s sq ft % Prime Yield (%) 6.00 % 0 bps 25 bps 350 Supply (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) 20% 18% 300 * % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated 16% using local currency 250 14% 200 12% 10% 150 8% Market Overview 100 6% 4% Building on improved leasing activity over the second half of 2010, 50 2% 2011 has seen continued interest from occupiers, however this has 0 0% not necessarily translated into deals. Take-up exceeded 100,000 sq 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ft in Q1, down 45% compared with the equivalent period last year and still 25% below the five year quarterly average for Q1 take-up. The average deal size remains relatively small and there were only Figure 3: Prime Rents and Rental Growth seven deals greater than 5,000 sq ft in the quarter. Activity was % £psf Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS) Prime Rent (LHS) driven primarily by the services sector which accounted for 64% of 20.0% 35 total take-up. 15.0% 30 10.0% 25 Supply in Birmingham city centre remained relatively stable 5.0% 20 0.0% compared with the previous quarter. No speculative completions 15 -5.0% are scheduled for this year and as a result even modest levels of 10 -10.0% take-up will absorb supply. Availability of Grade A supply remains 5 -15.0% relatively healthy, but given occupier preference for Grade A Space -20.0% 0 we expect this to gradually decline. Looking ahead there is just 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 129,000 sq ft due to complete speculatively over 2012-13. As a result, occupiers seeking larger units of Grade A space may have to consider preletting options. Figure 4: Prime Yields Prime rents increased slightly, up 1.8%, to £28.50 per sq ft in the 8.0% % first quarter. This was driven by demand for arguably the best quality space in Birmingham, which is more limited in supply. 7.0% Incentives remain generous at around 36 months based on a 10 6.0% year term. The rest of the market is still competing hard for occupiers with the gap between prime and secondary widening 5.0% further. 4.0% 1Q96 1Q97 1Q98 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 Just one investment transaction completed in Q1: Capital Trust purchased The Stock Exchange from Stoford for £7.95 million, Prime Yields 10 Year Av erage 20 Year Av erage reflecting a net initial yield of 6.40%. Prime yields have stabilised at 6.00%, but with upward pressure. Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle
  • 5. Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 5 Leeds Change* 12 Month Figure 5: Take-up Summary Statistics Q1 11 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook 000s sq ft 800 Take-up 5 Year Av erage Take-up (000s sq ft) 36.8 -54.5% -56.5 % 700 Supply (000s sq ft) 1,342 7.7 % -2.6% 600 500 Vacancy Rate (%) 10.8 % 70 bps -30bps 400 Prime Rent (£ psf) £26.00 0.0 % 0.0 % 300 200 U/C (000s sq ft) 38.0 -51.3% -5.1 % 100 0 Change* 12 Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 11 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook Cap. Value (£ psf) £433 0.0 % 0.0 % Investment Vol. (£m) £14.4 160 % -79.1% Figure 6: Supply and Vacancy Rates 000s sq ft % Prime Yield (%) 6.00 % 0 bps 0 bps 160 Supply (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) 14% 140 12% * % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated 120 using local currency 10% 100 8% 80 6% 60 Market Overview 4% 40 Office supply increased 8% over the first quarter, pushing overall 20 2% vacancy rates up to 10.8% and 5.8% for Grade A space. Despite 0 0% this, there is very little space in the development pipeline. Just 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 38,000 sq ft of space remains under construction speculatively, with no further speculative starts anticipated this year. As result we expect supply to fall gradually over the coming year. The most Figure 7: Prime Rents and Rental Growth significant risk to this is the potential for the Public sector to release % £psf space back onto the market. However, we have not yet seen any 16.0% Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS) Prime Rent (LHS) 30 dramatic changes with the public sector still trying to utilise their 14.0% 25 12.0% existing space. 10.0% 20 8.0% Despite an increase in the number of enquiries, take-up was 6.0% 15 disappointing with just 36,670 sq ft let during the first quarter. Take- 4.0% 10 up was down 57% compared with the equivalent period last year 2.0% 5 0.0% and remains 66% below the five year quarterly average. The -2.0% 0 majority of activity was generated by deals of less than 2,000 sq ft, 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 with only two deals greater than 5,000 sq ft. Occupiers remain cautious with the majority continuing to assess the impact of the current economic conditions on their business. As a consequence activity remains driven largely by lease events and market churn. Figure 8: Prime Yields % 8.0% Prime rents were stable at £26.00 per sq ft. Incentives remain stable but generous with around 30 months rent free achievable on 7.0% a 10 year term. Rents for Grade B space remain under greater pressure with landlords continuing to price competitively in order to 6.0% attract tenants. 5.0% The investment market remained fairly subdued over the first 4.0% quarter. Just £14.4 million was traded this quarter across one deal. 1Q96 1Q97 1Q98 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 Prime yields were stable at 6.00%. Prime Yield 10 Year Av erage 20 Year Av erage Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle
  • 6. Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 6 Manchester Change* 12 Month Figure 9: Take-up Summary Statistics Q1 11 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook 000s sq ft 1,400 Take-up 5 Year Av erage Take-up (000s sq ft) 134.7 -59.4% -28.7 % 1,200 Supply (000s sq ft) 2,555 8.5 % -5.1 % 1,000 Vacancy Rate (%) 11.9 % 100bps -80 bps 800 600 Prime Rent (£ psf) £28.50 0.0 % 1.8 % 400 U/C (000s sq ft) 0 0.0 % n/a 200 0 Change* 12 Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 11 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook Cap. Value (£ psf) £475 0.0 % -2.5 % Investment Vol. (£m) £22.8 n/a -92.0% Figure 10: Supply and Vacancy Rates 000s sq ft % Prime Yield (%) 6.00 % 0 bps 25 bps 300 Supply (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) 14% 250 12% * % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated using local currency 200 10% 8% 150 6% Market Overview 100 4% 50 Take-up volumes were disappointing over the first quarter of 2011, 2% with less than 135,000 sq ft let, 29% below the equivalent period last 0 0% year and 41% below the five year quarterly average. The largest 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 deal was to The London School of Business & Finance who took 25,100 sq ft at Linley House, Dickinson Street. The majority of transactions were for deals of less than 2,500 sq ft with the average Figure 11: Prime Rents and Rental Growth deal size falling from around 5,500 sq ft to just 3,300 sq ft. Activity % £psf was generated by a variety of sectors, however the majority came 14.0% Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS) Prime Rent (LHS) 35 from the Services & Professional Services sectors which together 12.0% 30 accounted for over half of Q1 take-up. 10.0% 8.0% 25 6.0% 20 There were no new completions within the City centre in Q1. 4.0% Nevertheless, overall supply increased 8% driven by the release of 2.0% 15 second hand space. Overall vacancy rates currently stand at 0.0% 10 -2.0% 11.9%, slightly above the five year average of 11.1%. Grade A -4.0% 5 supply remains much more constrained at just 2.4%, compared with -6.0% 0 a five year average of 1.9%. Looking ahead the development 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 pipeline remains constrained with nothing under construction speculatively. Around 150,000 sq ft is expected to start speculatively this year, however, delivery is not expected before Figure 12: Prime Yields 2013. Consequently, we expect supply for Grade A space will continue to decline over the coming year. 8.0% % Prime rents remained stable over the first quarter at £28.50 per sq 7.0% ft. Incentives were also stable at around 30 months rent free achievable on a 10 year term. While occupiers were still being 6.0% driven primarily by cost and not quality there was continued evidence of tenants acting opportunistically to take advantage of 5.0% market conditions to secure good quality space on tenant favourable terms. As a result 86% of take-up in the final quarter was comprised 4.0% 1Q96 1Q97 1Q98 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 of new or refurbished units. Prime Yield 10 Year Av erage 20 Year Av erage Just one investment transaction took place over the first quarter. Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle Himor Group purchased Ship Canal House for £22.8 million, reflecting a net initial yield of 6.70%. Prime yields remained unchanged at 6.00%.
  • 7. Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 7 Western Corridor Change* 12 Month Figure 13: Take-up Summary Statistics Q1 11 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook 000s sq ft 9,000 Take-up 5 Year Av erage Take-up (000s sq ft) 393.1 -4.3% 48.4 % 8,000 Supply (000s sq ft) 12,516 2.7 % -3.9 % 7,000 6,000 Vacancy Rate (%) 14.6 % 40 bps -50 bps 5,000 4,000 Prime Rent (£ psf) £26.00 0.8 % 2.2 % 3,000 2,000 U/C (000s sq ft) 131.6 77.1 % -30.6 % 1,000 0 Change* 12 Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 11 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook Cap. Value (£ psf) £400 0.8 % 2.0 % Investment Vol. (£m) £111.7 53.2 % 9.2 % Figure 14: Supply and Vacancy Rates 000s sq ft % Prime Yield (%) 6.50 % 0 bps 0 bps 1,200 Supply (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) 16% 14% * % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated 1,000 12% using local currency 800 10% 600 8% 6% Market Overview 400 4% 200 Over 393,000 sq ft of office space was let in Q1, an increase of 48% 2% year on year and broadly in line with the previous quarter. Despite 0 0% clear improvement, take-up fell short of the 10 year average, down 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 36%. Activity remains driven by lease events rather than any single growth sector. Occupiers continued to favour Grade A space, with many taking of the opportunity to upgrade. Grade A take-up Figure 15: Prime Rents and Rental Growth accounted for nearly two thirds of the total compared with an % £psf average of nearer half. 15.0% Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS) Prime Rent (LHS) 35 10.0% 30 Overall supply increased slightly reflecting a vacancy rate of 14.6%. 25 5.0% This was driven by an increase in the level of Grade B supply. In 20 contrast, Grade A vacancy rates remained stable at 6.0%. Just 0.0% 15 130,000 sq ft of office space is under construction speculatively, -5.0% 10 none of which is due to complete this year. Developers and -10.0% investors are becoming aware of this historically low level of stock 5 replacement and there are signs of a development market re- -15.0% 0 emerging. As the level of Grade A supply reduces further we will 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 see more pre-lets. Conversely, we expect further influxes of Grade B space which could drive interest in the conversion of secondary stock to alternative uses such as residential, as supported by Figure 16: Prime Yields announcements made in the Chancellor’s recent Budget. 8.0% Across the Western Corridor market, rents increased 0.8% over the 7.0% quarter driven by Windsor and Chiswick. Incentives were also stable at up to 30 months rent free on a 10-year lease in the 6.0% Thames Valley and 24 months in West London. We anticipate annual growth of 3.6% taking average prime rents to around £28.42 5.0% by the end of this year. 4.0% 1Q96 1Q97 1Q98 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 Investment activity picked up in Q1 with £111.7 million traded, Thames Valley Prime Yield TV 10 Year Av erage reflecting an increase of 9% compared with Q1 2009. UK investors West London Prime Yield WL 10 Year Av erage were net buyers of £31.1 million, while UK institutions were the Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle primary vendors, selling £42.1 million. Prime yields were stable at 6.50% in both West London and the Thames Valley.
  • 8. Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 8 Edinburgh Change* 12 Month Figure 17: Take-up Summary Statistics Q1 11 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook 000s sq ft 1,400 Take-up 5 Year Av erage Take-up (000s sq ft) 149.1 -33.8% -18.5% 1,200 Supply (000s sq ft) 1,738 -3.4 % -14.3 % 1,000 Vacancy Rate (%) 7.3 % -20 bps -120bps 800 600 Prime Rent (£ psf) £27.50 -1.8 % -1.8 % 400 U/C (000s sq ft) 190.0 0.0 % n/a 200 0 Change* 12 Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 11 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook Cap. Value (£ psf) £458 0.0 % -1.9 % Investment Vol. (£m) £11.1 -57.2 % -69.0 % Figure 18: Supply and Vacancy Rates 000s sq ft % Prime Yield (%) 6.00 % 0 bps 0 bps 250 Supply (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) 10% 9% * % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated 200 8% using local currency 7% 150 6% 5% 100 4% Market Overview 3% 50 2% In terms of occupier take-up, activity was down compared with the 1% previous quarter. Occupier take-up in Q1 reached around 150,000 0 0% sq ft, down -33.8% compared with Q4 2010 and -18.5% compared 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 with the same period in 2010. The majority of transactions were small, with around 80% of deals in units of less than 5,000 sq ft. Despite the drop in take-up there remains a good level of enquiries Figure 19: Prime Rents and Rental Growth within the market. While we expect to see increased activity in the % £psf Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS) Prime Rent (LHS) second half of the year, growth will remain limited with deals driven 25.0% 30 largely by lease events. 20.0% 29 29 15.0% Supply continued to decline gradually over Q1. Overall vacancy 10.0% 28 28 rates fell to 7.3%, driven largely by declining Grade B space. The 5.0% 27 Grade A market remains constrained however, with vacancy rates 0.0% 27 stable at just 3.5%. Speculative development remains turned off, -5.0% 26 with just one scheme currently under construction speculatively, due -10.0% 26 to complete in 2013. We therefore predict supply will continue to 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 decline as existing space is gradually absorbed. Developers are beginning to position themselves strategically to take advantage of the impending shortage of Grade A supply and the anticipated increase in lease events expected in the next 2-3 years. Figure 20: Prime Yields % 8.0% Prime rents remained stable at £27.50 per sq ft. Incentives were also stable with between 32-36 months achievable on a 10 year 7.0% term. Despite the impending supply shortages, overall demand remains fairly weak. While rents are forecast to remain stable 6.0% throughout 2011, there is a slight downside risk to this scenario 5.0% depending on the speed with which demand recovers. 4.0% Investment volumes picked up slightly in Q1, with volumes totalling 1Q96 1Q97 1Q98 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 £11.1 million. Volumes were up 35% compared with the previous Prime Yield 10 Year Av erage 20 Year Av erage quarter. Prime yields remained stable at 6.00% and are expected to remain flat for the remainder of 2011. Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle
  • 9. Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 9 Glasgow Change* 12 Month Figure 21: Take-up Summary Statistics Q1 11 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook 000s sq ft 900 Take-up 5 Year Av erage Take-up (000s sq ft) 91.1 -32.9% 3.7 % 800 Supply (000s sq ft) 1,683 3.4 % 12.4 % 700 600 Vacancy Rate (%) 10.5 % 30 bps 110 bps 500 400 Prime Rent (£ psf) £27.00 1.9 % 3.8 % 300 200 U/C (000s sq ft) 0 n/a n/a 100 0 Change* 12 Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 11 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook Cap. Value (£ psf) £450 1.9 % -0.5 % Investment Vol. (£m) £17.6 -55.4 % -52.1 % Figure 22: Supply and Vacancy Rates 000s sq ft % Prime Yield (%) 6.00 % 0 bps 25 bps 160 Supply (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) 12% 140 * % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated 10% 120 using local currency 8% 100 80 6% 60 Market Overview 4% 40 2% The addition of some Grade B space pushed overall supply up 20 slightly over the first quarter of the year. Conversely, the squeeze 0 0% on Grade A supply continued with Grade A vacancy rates falling to 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 3.2%. The development pipeline remains switched off with no space under construction in the City centre and no speculative starts anticipated in the coming year. As a result we expect the gradual Figure 23: Prime Rents and Rental Growth erosion of Grade A supply to continue. In contrast there is still a % £psf significant amount of Grade B space which is expected to remain 20.0% Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS) Prime Rent (LHS) 30 inflated over 2011. 15.0% 25 Unsurprisingly, take-up fell in comparison to the previously strong 10.0% 20 fourth quarter, which was boosted by the 57,000 sq ft deal to 5.0% 15 Scottish and Southern Energy. There were no deals over 40,000 sq 0.0% 10 ft, with the average deal size falling to around 4,100 sq ft. Despite this, Q1 take-up improved in comparison to the equivalent period -5.0% 5 last year, up by 3.7%. Notable deals included the 34,000 sq ft deal -10.0% 0 to Mercer at George Square and the acquisition by Ernst & Young of 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 11,600 sq ft at Pacific House. Activity was driven primarily by the Services sector which accounted for 60% of activity. The level of new enquiries was down slightly over the first quarter. While we do Figure 24: Prime Yields not expect to see a significant bounceback in demand, we do anticipate an increasing number of new enquiries over the coming 8.0% % year. 7.0% Prime rents increased 1.9% to £27.00 per sq ft with incentives remaining high at between 24-30 months on a 10 year term. We 6.0% expect this to increase further over the course of the year, driven by the gradual decline of Grade A space. In contrast the Grade B 5.0% market remains competitive with landlords competing for occupiers. 4.0% 1Q96 1Q97 1Q98 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 The investment market remained relatively quiet over the first quarter with £17.6 million transacted across two deals. Prime yields Prime Yield 10 Year Av erage 20 Year Av erage remained stable at 6.0%. We do not anticipate any further Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle movement in prime yields over the remainder of the year.
  • 10. Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 10 Definitions Take-up Floorspace acquired for occupation by lease, prelease, freehold or long leasehold sale. All deals are included with the exception of Western Corridor, where a 500 sq m threshold is applied. Supply Floorspace on the market and available for occupation. It includes space that is under offer. Under Construction Speculative development of new building or substantial refurbishment where construction activity is ongoing. Prime Rent The Jones Lang LaSalle view of the highest rent achievable for a hypothetical 10,000 sq ft unit of Grade A space in a prime location, without any adjustment for incentives. Business Sectors Broad business sectors are classified as: Banking & Finance: Banks and other financial institutions Professional Services: Accountants, legal, management consultants etc Service Industries: Advertising and PR, broadcasting, internet services, printing and publishing, software houses and data processing, telecommunications services, transport, retail, leisure etc Manufacturing Industries: Pharmaceuticals, computer hardware, electronics, construction, mining, engineering, food and drink etc Public Administration & Institutions: Central and local government, institutions, charities, quangos, health and social etc
  • 11. Jones Lang LaSalle contacts James Finnis Chris Hiatt Mark Wilson Kenny Waitt Head of National Offices Chairman of National Offices Director – Joint Head of National Director National Offices National Offices Investment Edinburgh Investment Stockley Park London West End London West End Edinburgh +44 (0)20 8283 2534 +44 (0)20 7399 5323 +44 (0)20 7399 5874 +44 (0)131 301 6706 james.finnis@eu.jll.com chris.hiatt@eu.jll.com mark.wilson@eu.jll.com kenny.waitt@eu.jll.com Jonathan Fear Cameron Stott Mike Buchan Jeff Pearey Director Director Director Director – Head of Leeds Office National Offices - Birmingham Edinburgh Agency Glasgow Agency National Offices - Leeds Birmingham Edinburgh Glasgow Leeds +44 (0)121 634 6564 +44 (0)131 301 6715 +44 (0)141 567 6623 +44 (0)113 261 6236 jonathan.fear@eu.jll.com cameron.stott@eu.jll.com mike.buchan@eu.jll.com jeff.pearey@eu.jll.com Trevor Sloan Karen Williamson Bill Page Director Senior Analyst Head of Offices Research National Offices - Manchester EMEA Research EMEA Research Manchester Canary Wharf Canary Wharf +44 (0)161 828 6430 +44 (0)20 3147 1197 +44 (0)20 3147 1212 trevor.sloan@eu.jll.com karen.williamson@eu.jll.com bill.page@eu.jll.com UK National Voice – Q1 2011 OnPoint reports from Jones Lang LaSalle include quarterly and annual highlights of real estate activity, performance and specialised surveys and forecasts that uncover emerging trends. www.joneslanglasalle.co.uk COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2011. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.