- Office take-up in the UK was down 9% in Q1 2011 compared to the same period in 2010, though performance varied across markets. Supply constraints continued to widen the gap between Grade A and B space.
- Rents for prime space continued to be supported by incentives and are expected to see 1.1% growth on average in 2011, while the Grade B market faces more downside risk.
- Investment volumes remained relatively weak in Q1 as buyers focused on London and the South East, but strengthening fundamentals may drive more activity outside these areas later in the year.
1. UK National Voice - Q1 2011
Office Market Conditions
Across the UK
Building on improved leasing activity over the second half of
2010, 2011 has seen continued interest from occupiers, although
this has not yet translated into deals. Q1 take-up activity was
down 9% compared with the equivalent period last year,
although performance remains mixed across the UK.
Supply constraints resulted in further polarisation between Grade
A and Grade B space. Rents continue to be heavily supported
by incentives. While we expect to see further prime rental
growth averaging around 1.1% for 2011, the Grade B market
carries significantly more downside risk.
Investment volumes were relatively weak this quarter as buyers
continued to focus on Central London and the South East
markets. Increased competition for the best space as well as
strengthening market fundamentals may drive increased investor
activity outside of London this year.
2. 2 On Point • UK National Voice • Q1 2011
UK Summary
Change* 12 Month
Summary Statistics Q1 11
Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook
Take-up (000s sq ft) 906 -30.6 % -8.7 %
Supply (000s sq ft) 23,067 2.8 % -3.1 %
Vacancy Rate (%) 12.6 % 0 bps -20 bps
Prime Rent (£ psf) £27.08 0.8 % 1.7 %
U/C (000s sq ft) 488.6 8.3 % -20.7%
Investment Vol. (£m) £185.5 27.3 % -70.8 %
* % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated using local currency
UK Office Rental Clock
Rental Growth Rents
London City Slowing Falling
London West End
Rental Growth Rents
Accelerating Bottoming Out
Edinburgh, Leeds
West London
Manchester
Birmingham,
Glasgow, Thames Valley
For information on the Central London market, please see the Jones Lang LaSalle Central London Market Report
3. On Point • UK National Voice Q1 2011 3
National Overview
2011 witnessed continued interest from occupiers, however this new speculative commencements due this year outside of these two
failed to translate into a substantial amount of take-up activity. The locations. While we expect developers to begin positioning
gradual erosion of Grade A supply continued, and with very little in themselves strategically to take advantage of the impending
the development pipeline we expect a return to preletting activity in shortage of Grade A supply, the lack of speculative development
some markets. Investment volumes were relatively weak this quarter funding will mean that the pipeline will remain severely limited. As
as buyers continued to focus on Central London and the South East. Grade A supply reduces further we therefore expect to see a return
However, increased competition and strengthening market to preletting activity.
fundamentals for prime space should drive increased investor
activity outside of London this year. Q1 witnessed further polarisation between Grade A and Grade B
space. Prime rents increased in Birmingham, Glasgow and the
Continued interest from occupiers, but conversion to deals Western Corridor, while rents in the remaining regional centres were
remains slow stable. Prime rents continue to be supported by significant
UK office take-up reached around 906,000 sq ft over the first quarter incentives, with up to 30 months rent free achievable on a 10 year
of 2011, down 9% compared with the equivalent period last year term in most markets. We expect to see further prime rental growth
and down 36% compared with the five year quarterly average. averaging at around 1.1% for 2011, driven by the anticipated
Performance was down year-on-year in all markets with the shortage of Grade A space. In contrast the Grade B market carries
exception of the Thames Valley and Glasgow where take-up significantly more downside risk with landlords continuing to
increased, but remained below their respective five year averages. compete for occupiers. While we have not yet seen any significant
In the Thames valley take-up increased from a very low base and release of Grade B space onto the market, we do expect the level of
was boosted by several large deals of more than 25,000 sq ft. Grade B supply to remain inflated.
There was no single sector driving activity in Q1. In line with the
previous quarter, activity was driven by a broad range of companies, Strengthening market fundamentals likely to encourage
particularly from within the Business services sector, including investment activity outside of London
recruitment consultants, IT companies and Media firms. Investment activity remained relatively subdued in the UK regional
markets as most investors have continued to seek assets in London
Although occupier demand will continue to be dominated by and the South East. Prime yields have been stable at 6.00% in the
structural events this year, we anticipate a growing number of Scottish and regional markets and at 6.50% in the South East.
companies launching requirements in the coming months. While we Purchasers continued to focus on good quality, well let properties
expect demand to pick up, given the outlook for the economy and a clear divergence between prime and secondary has emerged.
remains mixed, we expect occupiers to remain cautious. The According to the IPD monthly index, UK offices recorded capital
annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate fell to 4.0% in value growth of just 0.47% over the three months to March with a
March, down from 4.4% in February, however this downward trend yield impact of 0.50% compared to 1.3% in the second half of last
is likely to be temporary. Inflation is expected to remain well above year. With yields forecast to remain stable in the medium term
the official target of 2% year-on-year for the rest of 2011 and will investment performance will be dependent on income return and
remain a key concern for occupiers this year as costs remain rental growth. Local occupier conditions will be vital to performance.
inflated. Economic activity is expected to recover from its end 2010
dip, but expectations are now at, or slightly below, trend growth in Competition for prime core lots in Central London, and a lack of
Q1. In the absence of significant economic growth we therefore supply, has created a very competitive market that is pricing many
expect take-up this year will be at similar levels to 2010. investors out to alternative areas. Combined with the strengthening
market fundamentals for prime space, which will result in improved
Dwindling Grade A supply continued over the first quarter rental growth, this has the potential to encourage increased
In almost all markets Grade A vacancy rates are now below 4% and investment activity outside of London this year.
trending downwards - albeit approximately in line with their five year
averages. There is currently nothing under construction The biggest concern for 2011 within the UK investment market is
speculatively in either Glasgow or Manchester. Across the likely to be the restriction placed on transactional activity as a result
remaining UK Regional Markets there is only around 488,000 sq ft of a lack of product. Volumes will be limited by tight supply as
of space under construction speculatively, of which only 38,000 sq ft opposed to a weakening in sentiment. While we anticipate more
is scheduled to complete this year. We therefore anticipate further product deriving from banks seeking to reduce their exposure to real
gradual erosion of Grade A supply. estate, a significant influx remains unlikely. We expect to see
continuing demand from a range of investors with the best space
Conversely, we expect further influxes of Grade B space as a result continuing to trade well but there is concern for pricing on secondary
of public sector cutbacks although this could well drive interest in the space.
conversion of secondary stock to alternative uses such as
residential, as supported by announcements made in the
Chancellor’s recent Budget.
With the exception of the Western Corridor and Manchester, the
response to the impending supply shortage remains limited, with no
4. 4 On Point • UK National Voice • Q1 2011
Birmingham
Change* 12 Month Figure 1: Take-up
Summary Statistics Q1 11
Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook
000s sq ft
1,200 Take-up 5 Year Av erage
Take-up (000s sq ft) 101.6 -16.3% -44.5
1,000
Supply (000s sq ft) 3,182 0.9 % 6.1 %
800
Vacancy Rate (%) 18.2% 10 bps 60 bps 600
Prime Rent (£ psf) £28.50 1.8 % 3.6 % 400
U/C (000s sq ft) 129.2 -59.3 % -73.1 % 200
0
Change* 12 Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Q1 11
Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook
Cap. Value (£ psf) % £475 1.8 % -0.7 %
Investment Vol. (£m) £7.9 -54.6 % -95.2%
Figure 2: Supply and Vacancy Rates
000s sq ft %
Prime Yield (%) 6.00 % 0 bps 25 bps 350 Supply (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) 20%
18%
300
* % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated 16%
using local currency 250 14%
200 12%
10%
150 8%
Market Overview 100 6%
4%
Building on improved leasing activity over the second half of 2010, 50
2%
2011 has seen continued interest from occupiers, however this has 0 0%
not necessarily translated into deals. Take-up exceeded 100,000 sq 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ft in Q1, down 45% compared with the equivalent period last year
and still 25% below the five year quarterly average for Q1 take-up.
The average deal size remains relatively small and there were only Figure 3: Prime Rents and Rental Growth
seven deals greater than 5,000 sq ft in the quarter. Activity was % £psf
Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS) Prime Rent (LHS)
driven primarily by the services sector which accounted for 64% of 20.0% 35
total take-up. 15.0% 30
10.0% 25
Supply in Birmingham city centre remained relatively stable 5.0%
20
0.0%
compared with the previous quarter. No speculative completions 15
-5.0%
are scheduled for this year and as a result even modest levels of 10
-10.0%
take-up will absorb supply. Availability of Grade A supply remains 5
-15.0%
relatively healthy, but given occupier preference for Grade A Space -20.0% 0
we expect this to gradually decline. Looking ahead there is just 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
129,000 sq ft due to complete speculatively over 2012-13. As a
result, occupiers seeking larger units of Grade A space may have to
consider preletting options.
Figure 4: Prime Yields
Prime rents increased slightly, up 1.8%, to £28.50 per sq ft in the 8.0% %
first quarter. This was driven by demand for arguably the best
quality space in Birmingham, which is more limited in supply. 7.0%
Incentives remain generous at around 36 months based on a 10 6.0%
year term. The rest of the market is still competing hard for
occupiers with the gap between prime and secondary widening 5.0%
further.
4.0%
1Q96
1Q97
1Q98
1Q99
1Q00
1Q01
1Q02
1Q03
1Q04
1Q05
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
1Q11
Just one investment transaction completed in Q1: Capital Trust
purchased The Stock Exchange from Stoford for £7.95 million, Prime Yields 10 Year Av erage 20 Year Av erage
reflecting a net initial yield of 6.40%. Prime yields have stabilised at
6.00%, but with upward pressure. Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle
5. Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 5
Leeds
Change* 12 Month Figure 5: Take-up
Summary Statistics Q1 11
Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook
000s sq ft
800 Take-up 5 Year Av erage
Take-up (000s sq ft) 36.8 -54.5% -56.5 %
700
Supply (000s sq ft) 1,342 7.7 % -2.6% 600
500
Vacancy Rate (%) 10.8 % 70 bps -30bps 400
Prime Rent (£ psf) £26.00 0.0 % 0.0 % 300
200
U/C (000s sq ft) 38.0 -51.3% -5.1 % 100
0
Change* 12 Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Q1 11
Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook
Cap. Value (£ psf) £433 0.0 % 0.0 %
Investment Vol. (£m) £14.4 160 % -79.1%
Figure 6: Supply and Vacancy Rates
000s sq ft %
Prime Yield (%) 6.00 % 0 bps 0 bps 160 Supply (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) 14%
140 12%
* % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated
120
using local currency 10%
100
8%
80
6%
60
Market Overview 4%
40
Office supply increased 8% over the first quarter, pushing overall 20 2%
vacancy rates up to 10.8% and 5.8% for Grade A space. Despite 0 0%
this, there is very little space in the development pipeline. Just 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
38,000 sq ft of space remains under construction speculatively, with
no further speculative starts anticipated this year. As result we
expect supply to fall gradually over the coming year. The most Figure 7: Prime Rents and Rental Growth
significant risk to this is the potential for the Public sector to release % £psf
space back onto the market. However, we have not yet seen any 16.0% Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS) Prime Rent (LHS) 30
dramatic changes with the public sector still trying to utilise their 14.0%
25
12.0%
existing space.
10.0% 20
8.0%
Despite an increase in the number of enquiries, take-up was 6.0%
15
disappointing with just 36,670 sq ft let during the first quarter. Take- 4.0% 10
up was down 57% compared with the equivalent period last year 2.0%
5
0.0%
and remains 66% below the five year quarterly average. The
-2.0% 0
majority of activity was generated by deals of less than 2,000 sq ft, 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
with only two deals greater than 5,000 sq ft. Occupiers remain
cautious with the majority continuing to assess the impact of the
current economic conditions on their business. As a consequence
activity remains driven largely by lease events and market churn. Figure 8: Prime Yields
%
8.0%
Prime rents were stable at £26.00 per sq ft. Incentives remain
stable but generous with around 30 months rent free achievable on 7.0%
a 10 year term. Rents for Grade B space remain under greater
pressure with landlords continuing to price competitively in order to 6.0%
attract tenants.
5.0%
The investment market remained fairly subdued over the first
4.0%
quarter. Just £14.4 million was traded this quarter across one deal.
1Q96
1Q97
1Q98
1Q99
1Q00
1Q01
1Q02
1Q03
1Q04
1Q05
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
1Q11
Prime yields were stable at 6.00%.
Prime Yield 10 Year Av erage 20 Year Av erage
Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle
6. Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 6
Manchester
Change* 12 Month Figure 9: Take-up
Summary Statistics Q1 11
Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook
000s sq ft
1,400 Take-up 5 Year Av erage
Take-up (000s sq ft) 134.7 -59.4% -28.7 %
1,200
Supply (000s sq ft) 2,555 8.5 % -5.1 % 1,000
Vacancy Rate (%) 11.9 % 100bps -80 bps 800
600
Prime Rent (£ psf) £28.50 0.0 % 1.8 %
400
U/C (000s sq ft) 0 0.0 % n/a 200
0
Change* 12 Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Q1 11
Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook
Cap. Value (£ psf) £475 0.0 % -2.5 %
Investment Vol. (£m) £22.8 n/a -92.0%
Figure 10: Supply and Vacancy Rates
000s sq ft %
Prime Yield (%) 6.00 % 0 bps 25 bps 300 Supply (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) 14%
250 12%
* % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated
using local currency 200
10%
8%
150
6%
Market Overview 100
4%
50
Take-up volumes were disappointing over the first quarter of 2011, 2%
with less than 135,000 sq ft let, 29% below the equivalent period last 0 0%
year and 41% below the five year quarterly average. The largest 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
deal was to The London School of Business & Finance who took
25,100 sq ft at Linley House, Dickinson Street. The majority of
transactions were for deals of less than 2,500 sq ft with the average Figure 11: Prime Rents and Rental Growth
deal size falling from around 5,500 sq ft to just 3,300 sq ft. Activity
% £psf
was generated by a variety of sectors, however the majority came 14.0% Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS) Prime Rent (LHS) 35
from the Services & Professional Services sectors which together 12.0%
30
accounted for over half of Q1 take-up. 10.0%
8.0% 25
6.0% 20
There were no new completions within the City centre in Q1. 4.0%
Nevertheless, overall supply increased 8% driven by the release of 2.0% 15
second hand space. Overall vacancy rates currently stand at 0.0% 10
-2.0%
11.9%, slightly above the five year average of 11.1%. Grade A -4.0%
5
supply remains much more constrained at just 2.4%, compared with -6.0% 0
a five year average of 1.9%. Looking ahead the development 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
pipeline remains constrained with nothing under construction
speculatively. Around 150,000 sq ft is expected to start
speculatively this year, however, delivery is not expected before
Figure 12: Prime Yields
2013. Consequently, we expect supply for Grade A space will
continue to decline over the coming year. 8.0%
%
Prime rents remained stable over the first quarter at £28.50 per sq 7.0%
ft. Incentives were also stable at around 30 months rent free
achievable on a 10 year term. While occupiers were still being 6.0%
driven primarily by cost and not quality there was continued
evidence of tenants acting opportunistically to take advantage of 5.0%
market conditions to secure good quality space on tenant favourable
terms. As a result 86% of take-up in the final quarter was comprised 4.0%
1Q96
1Q97
1Q98
1Q99
1Q00
1Q01
1Q02
1Q03
1Q04
1Q05
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
1Q11
of new or refurbished units.
Prime Yield 10 Year Av erage 20 Year Av erage
Just one investment transaction took place over the first quarter.
Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle
Himor Group purchased Ship Canal House for £22.8 million,
reflecting a net initial yield of 6.70%. Prime yields remained
unchanged at 6.00%.
7. Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 7
Western Corridor
Change* 12 Month Figure 13: Take-up
Summary Statistics Q1 11
Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook
000s sq ft
9,000 Take-up 5 Year Av erage
Take-up (000s sq ft) 393.1 -4.3% 48.4 %
8,000
Supply (000s sq ft) 12,516 2.7 % -3.9 % 7,000
6,000
Vacancy Rate (%) 14.6 % 40 bps -50 bps 5,000
4,000
Prime Rent (£ psf) £26.00 0.8 % 2.2 % 3,000
2,000
U/C (000s sq ft) 131.6 77.1 % -30.6 % 1,000
0
Change* 12 Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Q1 11
Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook
Cap. Value (£ psf) £400 0.8 % 2.0 %
Investment Vol. (£m) £111.7 53.2 % 9.2 %
Figure 14: Supply and Vacancy Rates
000s sq ft %
Prime Yield (%) 6.50 % 0 bps 0 bps 1,200 Supply (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) 16%
14%
* % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated 1,000
12%
using local currency 800
10%
600 8%
6%
Market Overview 400
4%
200
Over 393,000 sq ft of office space was let in Q1, an increase of 48% 2%
year on year and broadly in line with the previous quarter. Despite 0 0%
clear improvement, take-up fell short of the 10 year average, down 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
36%. Activity remains driven by lease events rather than any single
growth sector. Occupiers continued to favour Grade A space, with
many taking of the opportunity to upgrade. Grade A take-up Figure 15: Prime Rents and Rental Growth
accounted for nearly two thirds of the total compared with an
% £psf
average of nearer half. 15.0% Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS) Prime Rent (LHS) 35
10.0% 30
Overall supply increased slightly reflecting a vacancy rate of 14.6%. 25
5.0%
This was driven by an increase in the level of Grade B supply. In 20
contrast, Grade A vacancy rates remained stable at 6.0%. Just 0.0%
15
130,000 sq ft of office space is under construction speculatively, -5.0%
10
none of which is due to complete this year. Developers and
-10.0%
investors are becoming aware of this historically low level of stock 5
replacement and there are signs of a development market re- -15.0% 0
emerging. As the level of Grade A supply reduces further we will 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
see more pre-lets. Conversely, we expect further influxes of Grade
B space which could drive interest in the conversion of secondary
stock to alternative uses such as residential, as supported by Figure 16: Prime Yields
announcements made in the Chancellor’s recent Budget.
8.0%
Across the Western Corridor market, rents increased 0.8% over the 7.0%
quarter driven by Windsor and Chiswick. Incentives were also
stable at up to 30 months rent free on a 10-year lease in the 6.0%
Thames Valley and 24 months in West London. We anticipate
annual growth of 3.6% taking average prime rents to around £28.42 5.0%
by the end of this year.
4.0%
1Q96
1Q97
1Q98
1Q99
1Q00
1Q01
1Q02
1Q03
1Q04
1Q05
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
1Q11
Investment activity picked up in Q1 with £111.7 million traded, Thames Valley Prime Yield TV 10 Year Av erage
reflecting an increase of 9% compared with Q1 2009. UK investors West London Prime Yield WL 10 Year Av erage
were net buyers of £31.1 million, while UK institutions were the
Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle
primary vendors, selling £42.1 million. Prime yields were stable at
6.50% in both West London and the Thames Valley.
8. Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 8
Edinburgh
Change* 12 Month Figure 17: Take-up
Summary Statistics Q1 11
Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook
000s sq ft
1,400 Take-up 5 Year Av erage
Take-up (000s sq ft) 149.1 -33.8% -18.5%
1,200
Supply (000s sq ft) 1,738 -3.4 % -14.3 % 1,000
Vacancy Rate (%) 7.3 % -20 bps -120bps 800
600
Prime Rent (£ psf) £27.50 -1.8 % -1.8 %
400
U/C (000s sq ft) 190.0 0.0 % n/a 200
0
Change* 12 Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Q1 11
Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook
Cap. Value (£ psf) £458 0.0 % -1.9 %
Investment Vol. (£m) £11.1 -57.2 % -69.0 %
Figure 18: Supply and Vacancy Rates
000s sq ft %
Prime Yield (%) 6.00 % 0 bps 0 bps 250 Supply (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) 10%
9%
* % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated 200 8%
using local currency 7%
150 6%
5%
100 4%
Market Overview 3%
50 2%
In terms of occupier take-up, activity was down compared with the 1%
previous quarter. Occupier take-up in Q1 reached around 150,000 0 0%
sq ft, down -33.8% compared with Q4 2010 and -18.5% compared 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
with the same period in 2010. The majority of transactions were
small, with around 80% of deals in units of less than 5,000 sq ft.
Despite the drop in take-up there remains a good level of enquiries Figure 19: Prime Rents and Rental Growth
within the market. While we expect to see increased activity in the % £psf
Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS) Prime Rent (LHS)
second half of the year, growth will remain limited with deals driven 25.0% 30
largely by lease events. 20.0% 29
29
15.0%
Supply continued to decline gradually over Q1. Overall vacancy 10.0%
28
28
rates fell to 7.3%, driven largely by declining Grade B space. The 5.0%
27
Grade A market remains constrained however, with vacancy rates 0.0%
27
stable at just 3.5%. Speculative development remains turned off, -5.0% 26
with just one scheme currently under construction speculatively, due
-10.0% 26
to complete in 2013. We therefore predict supply will continue to 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
decline as existing space is gradually absorbed. Developers are
beginning to position themselves strategically to take advantage of
the impending shortage of Grade A supply and the anticipated
increase in lease events expected in the next 2-3 years. Figure 20: Prime Yields
%
8.0%
Prime rents remained stable at £27.50 per sq ft. Incentives were
also stable with between 32-36 months achievable on a 10 year 7.0%
term. Despite the impending supply shortages, overall demand
remains fairly weak. While rents are forecast to remain stable 6.0%
throughout 2011, there is a slight downside risk to this scenario
5.0%
depending on the speed with which demand recovers.
4.0%
Investment volumes picked up slightly in Q1, with volumes totalling
1Q96
1Q97
1Q98
1Q99
1Q00
1Q01
1Q02
1Q03
1Q04
1Q05
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
1Q11
£11.1 million. Volumes were up 35% compared with the previous
Prime Yield 10 Year Av erage 20 Year Av erage
quarter. Prime yields remained stable at 6.00% and are expected to
remain flat for the remainder of 2011. Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle
9. Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 9
Glasgow
Change* 12 Month Figure 21: Take-up
Summary Statistics Q1 11
Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook
000s sq ft
900 Take-up 5 Year Av erage
Take-up (000s sq ft) 91.1 -32.9% 3.7 %
800
Supply (000s sq ft) 1,683 3.4 % 12.4 % 700
600
Vacancy Rate (%) 10.5 % 30 bps 110 bps 500
400
Prime Rent (£ psf) £27.00 1.9 % 3.8 % 300
200
U/C (000s sq ft) 0 n/a n/a 100
0
Change* 12 Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Q1 11
Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Outlook
Cap. Value (£ psf) £450 1.9 % -0.5 %
Investment Vol. (£m) £17.6 -55.4 % -52.1 %
Figure 22: Supply and Vacancy Rates
000s sq ft %
Prime Yield (%) 6.00 % 0 bps 25 bps 160 Supply (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) 12%
140
* % Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated 10%
120
using local currency 8%
100
80 6%
60
Market Overview 4%
40
2%
The addition of some Grade B space pushed overall supply up 20
slightly over the first quarter of the year. Conversely, the squeeze 0 0%
on Grade A supply continued with Grade A vacancy rates falling to 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
3.2%. The development pipeline remains switched off with no
space under construction in the City centre and no speculative starts
anticipated in the coming year. As a result we expect the gradual Figure 23: Prime Rents and Rental Growth
erosion of Grade A supply to continue. In contrast there is still a
% £psf
significant amount of Grade B space which is expected to remain 20.0% Rental Grow th (Y-o-Y) (RHS) Prime Rent (LHS) 30
inflated over 2011.
15.0% 25
Unsurprisingly, take-up fell in comparison to the previously strong 10.0% 20
fourth quarter, which was boosted by the 57,000 sq ft deal to 5.0% 15
Scottish and Southern Energy. There were no deals over 40,000 sq
0.0% 10
ft, with the average deal size falling to around 4,100 sq ft. Despite
this, Q1 take-up improved in comparison to the equivalent period -5.0% 5
last year, up by 3.7%. Notable deals included the 34,000 sq ft deal -10.0% 0
to Mercer at George Square and the acquisition by Ernst & Young of 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
11,600 sq ft at Pacific House. Activity was driven primarily by the
Services sector which accounted for 60% of activity. The level of
new enquiries was down slightly over the first quarter. While we do
Figure 24: Prime Yields
not expect to see a significant bounceback in demand, we do
anticipate an increasing number of new enquiries over the coming 8.0%
%
year.
7.0%
Prime rents increased 1.9% to £27.00 per sq ft with incentives
remaining high at between 24-30 months on a 10 year term. We 6.0%
expect this to increase further over the course of the year, driven by
the gradual decline of Grade A space. In contrast the Grade B 5.0%
market remains competitive with landlords competing for occupiers.
4.0%
1Q96
1Q97
1Q98
1Q99
1Q00
1Q01
1Q02
1Q03
1Q04
1Q05
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
1Q11
The investment market remained relatively quiet over the first
quarter with £17.6 million transacted across two deals. Prime yields Prime Yield 10 Year Av erage 20 Year Av erage
remained stable at 6.0%. We do not anticipate any further
Source all Charts: Jones Lang LaSalle
movement in prime yields over the remainder of the year.
10. Pulse • UK National Voice • Q1 2011 10
Definitions
Take-up
Floorspace acquired for occupation by lease, prelease, freehold or long leasehold sale. All deals are included with the exception of Western
Corridor, where a 500 sq m threshold is applied.
Supply
Floorspace on the market and available for occupation. It includes space that is under offer.
Under Construction
Speculative development of new building or substantial refurbishment where construction activity is ongoing.
Prime Rent
The Jones Lang LaSalle view of the highest rent achievable for a hypothetical 10,000 sq ft unit of Grade A space in a prime location, without
any adjustment for incentives.
Business Sectors
Broad business sectors are classified as:
Banking & Finance: Banks and other financial institutions
Professional Services: Accountants, legal, management consultants etc
Service Industries: Advertising and PR, broadcasting, internet services, printing and publishing, software houses and data processing,
telecommunications services, transport, retail, leisure etc
Manufacturing Industries: Pharmaceuticals, computer hardware, electronics, construction, mining, engineering, food and drink etc
Public Administration & Institutions: Central and local government, institutions, charities, quangos, health and social etc